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Author Topic: Diversification in Global reserves.  (Read 525 times)
Husires
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September 28, 2023, 08:09:31 AM
 #21

If we agree that countries want to start reducing dependence on the dollar and find alternatives, there is no better alternative to the dollar. The Chinese yuan is losing its value, the Japanese yen is linked to the dollar, the Russian ruble is under political pressure and the euro, the pound sterling and the currencies entering the Gulf are affected by the dollar, the Swiss franc and gold are almost the same. The most likely alternatives, but they are not as strong as the dollar or the level of liquidity provided by treasury bonds.
Bitcoin is still in the process of growth, and if it succeeds in reaching good levels, it may be options, but stablecoins will definitely not be.

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September 28, 2023, 10:14:30 AM
 #22

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Gold seems like a fine option, considering how its purchasing power, remains more stable over time, but do you think cryptocurrency stands a chance?

You are answering your own question. Crypto cannot be used as a reserve because it doesn't have a stable value/price.
Do you really believe that currency reserves are needed in the fiat money era. The US dollar is a global reserve currency, which means that it is used for backing other currencies, but what is backing the US dollar? The USA simply don't have enough gold reserves. Many countries are holding US Treasury bonds in their reserves. What if the USA stops paying it's debts?
I think that we are moving towards a world, where there won't be any currency reserves. The creation and implementation of CBDCs might be a step in that direction.

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September 28, 2023, 11:08:39 AM
 #23

I wouldn't trust my wealth being put in RMB (yuan), the current economy of China isn't really the best one comparing to US even if many claim US lost it's purchasing power which I believe is BS because if it did lose that much, why is it still the most used currency around the globe when it comes to trading goods among countries? I would only trust in diversification when I know that the countries where those currencies comes from have a stable economy and has a real potential to compete against the US dollar in the global market.
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September 28, 2023, 11:18:51 AM
 #24

While it is risky, there's a chance. We've seen the Central African Republic and El Salvador that have made Bitcoin their legal tender. They're just doing it one step at a time and their government are also investing on it since they've understood the nature of Bitcoin.

I wouldn't trust my wealth being put in RMB (yuan), the current economy of China isn't really the best one comparing to US even if many claim US lost it's purchasing power which I believe is BS because if it did lose that much
RMB looking at its year trend, doesn't look good at all. Although the BRICS and other alliances are talking about making their own pegged currency which is China's. I do believe that the US will recover as this is a trade war and the US won't allow itself to fall down. There are just too many conspiracies and emotionally attached videos that are being spread on how they're falling. I don't understand a lot with economics but no doubt that they won't just let their ship sink.

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September 28, 2023, 01:52:30 PM
 #25

The problem is that when dollar lost its value, others didn't gain it, they lost their value as well. You look at dollar today, and it is much worse than what it was just 10 years ago, and a lot worse than 20 years ago, but is it still the strongest currency? It is. That alone is good enough reason to keep supporting dollar over other fiat currencies.

However, if we are talking about crypto, then using dollars as investment makes no sense, doesn't matter if it is stocks or gold or whatever, crypto is by far best asset of them all. This means that the only better investment than anything dollar related, would be just bitcoin. This is my thought, maybe you could find something that is better, but I haven't found one so far.

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September 28, 2023, 03:32:33 PM
Merited by Josefjix (4)
 #26

The existence of cryptocurrency specifically BTC has come to a highly transformation and circulatedly recognized and widely accepted with the potentiality to create and generate its investors income and also proffers diverse financial sources.

There are existing terms behind Cryptocurrency how by, it maintenance and even ascends its global financial investment leads as a digital marking system by its volatilities of uncertainty of the digital currency (BTC) values terms it unassurance commodity for global adherences.

After a long mile crypt currency made its vagrant and  extravagant measures of a big opposition in the international and communities financial sources. Hence there shall be a time probably in the nearest that would consider advancement in creativities such as advanced technologies and the marketing assurance in modernity and of course also tends to aim at its regulatory development.

However, the Cryptocurrency has become an economic threat alarming the public sectors and the banking sectors of adopting cautiousness over the legality of the the coins at the virtue of its decentralization and security being which has warranted a ban of the currencies around some certain countries while some are tending to it's unbanned with a goal to boosten investors value and their returns to enhance the public economy.

So I can categorically state that crypto currency specifically Bitcoin has come to stay and taking it leads on a indefinitely height around the globe of diversities of resource as far as other banned Cryptocurrency in other religions are considering to lift its ban after the foreseeing of the currencies value specially BTC with its potentials of exploring its investors in the digital market markets and more countries are yet to adopt its formidable ability to creat wealths.

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September 28, 2023, 03:44:27 PM
 #27


So, do you think cryptocurrency stands a chance in share of the global reserves, now that countries are opened to diversification through assets?  

At the moment, cryptocurrencies have no chance, even though they're going to be popular in the future, they're not very popular, and they don't have a lot of momentum on the global market. We the mass operating with bitcoin has no such power to lift it up, dollars still have it stands up to now, when you talk about diversification bitcoin have to be legalised all over the world, each country have to support the operation by purchasing their own Bitcoin to serve as example to the citizens

R


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September 28, 2023, 05:55:24 PM
 #28

The fiat currency as we all know is subject to inflation. Needless to say, a lot of economies have gone down due to it, but today, we're going to be talking about the US dollar.
 
The US dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power since 1971 and has gone through an 8% decline in its shares of global reserves in 2021. Now the thing is, if the USD continues to face inflation this much, do you think the Global reserve would be worth anything much in the future?
What do you mean by global reserves will worth anything, because not every country is using US as their national reserves, they are also using others assets along with it, like Gold, and others assets. But straight answer to your question about if crypto stands a chance to be use for national reserves and combinedly it would put some value in the global reserves. Then dear, open your eyes and check the dominance or market cap of the BTC only.

And then tell me, if it adds value to the global reserves, or if it give competitions to the market caps of big companies like Apple, Google etc.

BTC only covers the %50+ of the whole crypto market and the only coin that we can use in place of gold, many people think gold is limited on earth but I think opposite, and that's why I say, a country should reserve some funds in BTC as diversification is better than putting all the reserves in gold or US or Yuan etc.

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September 28, 2023, 08:34:51 PM
 #29

While it is risky, there's a chance. We've seen the Central African Republic and El Salvador that have made Bitcoin their legal tender. They're just doing it one step at a time and their government are also investing on it since they've understood the nature of Bitcoin.

I wouldn't trust my wealth being put in RMB (yuan), the current economy of China isn't really the best one comparing to US even if many claim US lost it's purchasing power which I believe is BS because if it did lose that much
RMB looking at its year trend, doesn't look good at all. Although the BRICS and other alliances are talking about making their own pegged currency which is China's. I do believe that the US will recover as this is a trade war and the US won't allow itself to fall down. There are just too many conspiracies and emotionally attached videos that are being spread on how they're falling. I don't understand a lot with economics but no doubt that they won't just let their ship sink.
I believe that more and more places will start accepting it as well. I know that it's not going to be all that easy but it's going to happen fine and people will start to accept it. That was just two nations so far, I am sure that in 10 years we are going to have 5, and in 20-30 years we are going to have 10-20 nations.

That's how it grows do not expect it to be legal tender in 50+ nations over night, we are going to see more nations but first we need to see these two do fine, and make a profit, and that will happen with the next bull run, and other nations that sees this will take notice and they will start doing it too, it will start with poor nations, but then it will grow bigger and bigger. We need couple decades.

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September 28, 2023, 08:54:43 PM
 #30

As a side note, on an individual level -- Gold, crypto, real estate are all attractive options if you're someone looking to retain your purchasing power. I would diversify into everything, perhaps leaving crypto as the plurality of your total portfolio if not the majority.

Global reserves operate in the same manner, countries usually bend towards diversification in multiple currencies and some physical assets. Crypto isn't part of the global reserves as of quite yet, maybe some number of decades we'll see countries slowly start incorporating crypto into their balance sheet. As of today, it's not really viable.
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September 28, 2023, 09:06:06 PM
 #31

While it is sensible to not trust another nation with your reserves, the point of "reserves" is having something outside of your own currency, you should have that as much as you possibly can, and then have reserves in something else. This begs the question, if you do not want dollars which is reasonable and I do not mean zero, I mean like do not put %100 of your reserves into dollars, that makes sense however, what else would you like to use? I wouldn't really use bitcoin right now, not for a nation size budget, you can't just buy 100 billion dollars worth of bitcoin, nor should you do that for 5-10 billion neither. Maybe a billion would be fine, but that's it. Gold is the smartest way to go in this deal.

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September 28, 2023, 09:23:59 PM
 #32

So, do you think cryptocurrency stands a chance in share of the global reserves, now that countries are opened to diversification through assets? 
It's possible but with the government regulation, I think this will not be an easy option to many government.
Though we can expect some private companies to diversify their assets and investments with Bitcoin since they have the money to do so and we are seeing this already. Some companies are already buying Bitcoin and holding it, they might not release it to the public but for sure they already know what's coming, and the diversification is a must especially now that there's a threat of another global market tragedy.

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September 28, 2023, 10:15:17 PM
 #33

The fiat currency as we all know is subject to inflation. Needless to say, a lot of economies have gone down due to it, but today, we're going to be talking about the US dollar.
 
Gold seems like a fine option, considering how its purchasing power, remains more stable over time, but do you think cryptocurrency stands a chance?

 So, do you think cryptocurrency stands a chance in share of the global reserves, now that countries are opened to diversification through assets?  

Bitcoin could have been in the best position to solve this problem,  but I doubt if Bitcoin will be of choice for now as there are various divergent views about Bitcoin but likely something that will happen in the future.
 
For alternative reasons, they should go back to the gold standard (a gold-backed currency) to escape the current economic crisis we have seen lately causing havoc around the world lately.

Inflation is not the major contributor to the dollar decline but also countries that recently started moving away from their reliance on the US dollar and deals are now done outside the US dollar.

A need to diversify or think of diversification of portfolios into assets that are not inflation-threatened such as Bitcoin, Gold, and real estate for hedging against inflation or as a safe haven is highly encouraged.

R


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September 28, 2023, 11:56:01 PM
 #34

While it is risky, there's a chance. We've seen the Central African Republic and El Salvador that have made Bitcoin their legal tender. They're just doing it one step at a time and their government are also investing on it since they've understood the nature of Bitcoin.
I believe that more and more places will start accepting it as well. I know that it's not going to be all that easy but it's going to happen fine and people will start to accept it. That was just two nations so far, I am sure that in 10 years we are going to have 5, and in 20-30 years we are going to have 10-20 nations.
There will be more of them, it's going to be an exponential adoption just how the price of Bitcoin goes. That's how Bitcoin surprises us and it all started from the few financial institutions, to a few countries and soon, more of them for sure.

That's how it grows do not expect it to be legal tender in 50+ nations over night, we are going to see more nations but first we need to see these two do fine, and make a profit, and that will happen with the next bull run, and other nations that sees this will take notice and they will start doing it too, it will start with poor nations, but then it will grow bigger and bigger. We need couple decades.
Definitely, it's a process whether it will be a gradual process but we're seeing the progress. In terms of adoption and progress, we're seeing that Bitcoin was never stagnant on it. There were even a lot of FUDs that were made about it and they never stop but look at the overwhelming response of the people globally.

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September 29, 2023, 03:39:38 AM
 #35

While it is sensible to not trust another nation with your reserves, the point of "reserves" is having something outside of your own currency, you should have that as much as you possibly can, and then have reserves in something else. This begs the question, if you do not want dollars which is reasonable and I do not mean zero, I mean like do not put %100 of your reserves into dollars, that makes sense however, what else would you like to use? I wouldn't really use bitcoin right now, not for a nation size budget, you can't just buy 100 billion dollars worth of bitcoin, nor should you do that for 5-10 billion neither. Maybe a billion would be fine, but that's it. Gold is the smartest way to go in this deal.
People need to realize that what is good for them may not necessarily be optimal for a government simply because of their scale, and while bitcoin can mean for us a great way to diversify our wealth and our income, the same cannot be said about governments, in which their mere size and magnitude makes impossible for them to invest a significant amount of their reserves in bitcoin.

And the only form of money that has been around for a long time and that is big enough to absorb so much capital is gold.

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September 29, 2023, 05:13:12 AM
 #36

-.-
 
For alternative reasons, they should go back to the gold standard (a gold-backed currency) to escape the current economic crisis we have seen lately causing havoc around the world lately.



I think going back to the gold standard is impossible because the amount of money the government has printed is so large, and no government will have enough gold to back the fiat they have printed. Furthermore, it will make it difficult for the government to print money and they will not be able to manipulate things according to their wishes. If I remember correctly, the US government proposed and abolished the gold standard for fiat currencies. And they are using USD to control the world quite effectively, it will not be easy for them to lose this power.

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September 29, 2023, 05:25:59 AM
 #37


The US dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power since 1971 and has gone through an 8% decline in its shares of global reserves in 2021.
Yes, over the years, the buying power of USD has reduced, but I think you are exaggerating these stats a bit. The US dollar will remain the global reserve currency in the future. Yuan is also used by a few countries as a forex reserve option. BRICS countries are looking to dump the dollar as a reserve currency in future.

Quote

So, do you think cryptocurrency stands a chance in share of the global reserves, now that countries are opened to diversification through assets? 
Bitcoin can never be a global reserve currency. The reason is its volatility. Countries store stable currency as their reserve, and Bitcoin is extremely volatile and cannot be used as a storage of value on the global stage.
I think at some point in the near future, a small percentage of global financial transactions might be in Bitcoin.
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September 29, 2023, 08:03:27 AM
 #38

Are you aware that there are factors to consider while investing in cryptocurrencies. We already know that cryptocurrency is decentralized, meaning that it is not controlled by any government country. Though there are other cryptos that are regulated due to their centralization.

And because cryptocurrency is decentralized, this is one of the aspects that attracted investors to invest in it. contrasted to the global financial system, which is known to be having a difficulty with rising inflation and the present crisis in Ukraine, which is making it difficult for central banks to handle reserves.

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September 29, 2023, 08:23:25 AM
 #39

Looking back at the asset management journey of previous generations, we can feel that there will be no tool that will maintain stability in value forever. Even like bitcoin we hear many positive things as a solution to the payment problem, but the reality is that the old system still needs time to adapt or upgrade.

Just like the current story when the internet becomes popular and people can easily perform actions through simple gestures, I think with future developments there will also be many things that will be integrated and applied in life.









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September 29, 2023, 09:59:47 AM
Last edit: September 29, 2023, 11:48:38 AM by Ucy
 #40

Bitcoin can comfortably serve that role, but you have to be worried about the governments feeling too entitled and wanting to control its price, development, consensus, software, etc. If they cannot do this, they will not take it very seriously.. Fortunately, it's impossible for them to control Bitcoin, as countermeasures have been put in place to prevent that. They could end up settling for centralized cryptocurrencies which will eventually end up as inflationary fiat currencies since there will always be great temptation to inflate and weaken the value of currencies they control.

Gold and Precious Metals can be better alternatives for countries with weaker currencies that want to rely less on USD or avoid it completely. They could continue to use their national currencies as Medium of Exchange between themselves while using things like Gold as Store of Value. Atleast they are national resources they have somehow been able to control their supplies and prices.

Bitcoin is special.
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