Even Seasoned Analysts Can Get it Wrong

[michellee]

So this is a great reminder to us investors to not just believe anything that a person, no matter how popular or knowledgeable they are, stated without doing any researches to verify their statement.  After all it was out money that is on line.

A big teaching on not trusting too much without verifying for yourself or having your own conviction. There are some very highly spiritual people who may think that by spiritual methods, they may also be able to predict correctly the value of bitcoins. Just like the seasoned analysts, spiritualists can also get the price of bitcoins wrong, so it will be bad to base your plans on the price prediction of someone. Bitcoin value is very unpredictable and it will be so even to Satoshi.

Investors should analyze themselves when they buy Bitcoin and not depend on other people. It is their money and they are the ones who will keep their Bitcoins so they have to find the time to buy Bitcoins.

The analysts could be wrong in their analysis. And if someone follows his words to buy Bitcoin at that price and turns out to be wrong, that person should not blame the analyst because it is their own fault.

It is better for you to analyze Bitcoin movements and know when you buy Bitcoin rather than wait for other people's signals. Apart from that, at times like this, there will be a lot of misleading information that will confuse people. So be careful.

[retreat]

If they think that Bitcoin is like other investment instruments which can be predicted easily then they are very wrong. Bitcoin has an unstable nature and its movements are difficult to predict. Because of its volatile nature, Bitcoin is an instrument that is difficult to control and anyone who invests in this instrument must be prepared to accept the risk that at any time the value of their investment could decrease or increase significantly.

[Odusko]

The bitcoin ecosystem is designed in such a way that no individual or institution that could speculate accurately or influence its price in a particular direction,  unless in the incident of a general market crisis that could force the market in a particular direction and if that is possible then by now we should have seen another dissension of Bitcoin by now because bitcoin could have been acting in a particular pattern that would have shown that there is third party involvement in it market determination.
So for that, everyone is left to rely only on speculations and guesswork when it comes to bitcoin price speculations and what its real outcome turns out to be in the long run.

[Vispilio]

There is one basic litmus test to see whether an "analyst" has any legitimacy whatsoever, is he actively trading based on his predictions with his own capital, the answer in most cases will be a resounding no...

Also factor in the fact that most analysts are getting paid salaries by the big corporation that put them in the spotlight in the first place, so their loyalty will undeniably be with the shareholders and directors controlling their livelihood, instead of making a legitimate call for the benefit of any viewership...

[BitDane]

The bitcoin ecosystem is designed in such a way that no individual or institution that could speculate accurately or influence its price in a particular direction,  unless in the incident of a general market crisis that could force the market in a particular direction and if that is possible then by now we should have seen another dissension of Bitcoin by now because bitcoin could have been acting in a particular pattern that would have shown that there is third party involvement in it market determination.
So for that, everyone is left to rely only on speculations and guesswork when it comes to bitcoin price speculations and what its real outcome turns out to be in the long run.

Well no one can speculate the Bitcoin price accurately but there are people who can influence the flow of market in a particular direction.  In the early years, it was the whales who are dictating the trend, when the market become bigger and harder for whales to manipulate, they then work with various influencers and analysts to control the market sentiments which then affect the trend of the market.

I do agree that some prediction become real but most of them are way beyond their target timeframe.  The problem I find is, people tend to set a timeframe when they state their prediction, the reason why they fail and got shamed by the Bitcoin market movement.

[flyingcarpet]

The bitcoin ecosystem is designed in such a way that no individual or institution that could speculate accurately or influence its price in a particular direction,  unless in the incident of a general market crisis that could force the market in a particular direction and if that is possible then by now we should have seen another dissension of Bitcoin by now because bitcoin could have been acting in a particular pattern that would have shown that there is third party involvement in it market determination.
So for that, everyone is left to rely only on speculations and guesswork when it comes to bitcoin price speculations and what its real outcome turns out to be in the long run.

Well no one can speculate the Bitcoin price accurately but there are people who can influence the flow of market in a particular direction.  In the early years, it was the whales who are dictating the trend, when the market become bigger and harder for whales to manipulate, they then work with various influencers and analysts to control the market sentiments which then affect the trend of the market.

I do agree that some prediction become real but most of them are way beyond their target timeframe.  The problem I find is, people tend to set a timeframe when they state their prediction, the reason why they fail and got shamed by the Bitcoin market movement.

No one knows when and at what price Bitcoin will be priced. Bitcoin is affected by major events in the world and will always continue to be affected. What analysis can predict the beginning of a war? I think the only thing that is certain is Bitcoin's cycles. In other words, the possibility of experiencing a bull season is repeated in certain years. Some of the price predictions will come true, but the timing is unknown. True prediction is the simultaneous prediction of time and price. And I don't know if anyone can achieve this.

As someone who believes that Bitcoin will ATH again, I am not interested in predictions and I think the cycle of bull seasons will continue. So it doesn't matter if the next ATH is 7 months, 1 year or 2 years away. The important thing is that Bitcoin will ATH again.

Even though I don't believe in price predictions, I sometimes make predictions myself. I guess that's the nature of this business.

[Silberman]

There is one basic litmus test to see whether an "analyst" has any legitimacy whatsoever, is he actively trading based on his predictions with his own capital, the answer in most cases will be a resounding no...

Also factor in the fact that most analysts are getting paid salaries by the big corporation that put them in the spotlight in the first place, so their loyalty will undeniably be with the shareholders and directors controlling their livelihood, instead of making a legitimate call for the benefit of any viewership...

A great deal of those analysts are just writing to generate content for a website, nothing wrong with that but unless they are putting their theories to test on the markets then their opinions are worth nothing, this is very similar to what we see with the many writers and influencers that claim that they can help you to make a fortune trading the markets, but when you investigate a little bit you realize that their real business is to get other people to buy their books or to become their followers, so whatever they try to teach you about the markets should be viewed with skepticism.

[Davian144]

Well no one can speculate the Bitcoin price accurately but there are people who can influence the flow of market in a particular direction.  In the early years, it was the whales who are dictating the trend, when the market become bigger and harder for whales to manipulate, they then work with various influencers and analysts to control the market sentiments which then affect the trend of the market.

That is something that is very possible for whales and influencers and analysts to do because they all really want to do that in order to influence market trends as they wish. So that market flow will continue to occur and there will be no more misses from what they want even though they also don't plan to directly manipulate the market.

I do agree that some prediction become real but most of them are way beyond their target timeframe.  The problem I find is, people tend to set a timeframe when they state their prediction, the reason why they fail and got shamed by the Bitcoin market movement.

In fact, you don't have to feel embarrassed when predictions within a certain period of time miss what we say, because basically it is not easy to predict the price of Bitcoin, which every year has fluctuations even though the most beautiful moments often occur once every four years in Bitcoin. Where the market is more likely to turn green after being hit by bearish conditions.

[Quidat]

The bitcoin ecosystem is designed in such a way that no individual or institution that could speculate accurately or influence its price in a particular direction,  unless in the incident of a general market crisis that could force the market in a particular direction and if that is possible then by now we should have seen another dissension of Bitcoin by now because bitcoin could have been acting in a particular pattern that would have shown that there is third party involvement in it market determination.
So for that, everyone is left to rely only on speculations and guesswork when it comes to bitcoin price speculations and what its real outcome turns out to be in the long run.

Well no one can speculate the Bitcoin price accurately but there are people who can influence the flow of market in a particular direction.  In the early years, it was the whales who are dictating the trend, when the market become bigger and harder for whales to manipulate, they then work with various influencers and analysts to control the market sentiments which then affect the trend of the market.

I do agree that some prediction become real but most of them are way beyond their target timeframe.  The problem I find is, people tend to set a timeframe when they state their prediction, the reason why they fail and got shamed by the Bitcoin market movement.

No one knows when and at what price Bitcoin will be priced. Bitcoin is affected by major events in the world and will always continue to be affected. What analysis can predict the beginning of a war? I think the only thing that is certain is Bitcoin's cycles. In other words, the possibility of experiencing a bull season is repeated in certain years. Some of the price predictions will come true, but the timing is unknown. True prediction is the simultaneous prediction of time and price. And I don't know if anyone can achieve this.

As someone who believes that Bitcoin will ATH again, I am not interested in predictions and I think the cycle of bull seasons will continue. So it doesn't matter if the next ATH is 7 months, 1 year or 2 years away. The important thing is that Bitcoin will ATH again.

Even though I don't believe in price predictions, I sometimes make predictions myself. I guess that's the nature of this business.

Since from the start it was never been that predictable and no one on this world could really be able to predict on whats ahead. This is why no matter how experienced or professional you are
and making those good analysis but the market would really be that could easily fucked it up and this what would really be resulting into loss position but of course if you do have that experience
then for sure you do know on what you should really gonna do or simply have those back up plans or plan B's on which this isnt something that you could really be able to see with those
newbie traders or to those people who had just recently jumped in into this market.

As a trader and just to those average ones then you should really make yourself wary about those hypes and fomos that really been trying out to be played out
and if you are that someone who are really that impulsive when it comes to emotion then you would really be easily get hooked whenever market
sentiments kicks in and this is where you should really be that careful.

[sana54210]

Re: Even Seasoned Analysts Can Get it Wrong

Seasoned analysts, so-called analysts, expert traders, expert analysts, newbie analysts, people who think that they're analysts, TA experts, whatever type of analyst they are, they have one thing in common.
Yes they are been addressed as analysts, but they can't predict the future still.

What they're doing is speculating the market. If this happen, that will happen blah blah blah. That's the main point of their analysis. If Bitcoin's price reach X price, it might start a bull market. They are using the words "might" so that they say to the public that what they are saying is just a prediction, and don't follow them. Don't rely too much on their prediction because we average persons can also predict as well. We can do what they can do. The only difference is that, we aren't analysts at all while they are... so-called analysts.

Analysts are humans, and humans make mistakes. In the end, it's up to the investor if they will make a decision base on their prediction or  not.

I think this is such an important information that newbies need to learn. I mean they think that people like that could end up with a great result but the reality is that we are not going to see them have that kind of result at all. We should be considering this as a bad thing and should not give them all that much time in the world.

I think it's close to making it work one way or another and should definitely end up being important in the end. I know that it will not be all that simple and should be something that would be a bit different. I understand that we are going to end up with something that will be a bit different all together, and we could end up with a result that would be just pure wrong if we base our trades on what "experts" are saying.

[boty]

Re: Even Seasoned Analysts Can Get it Wrong

Seasoned analysts, so-called analysts, expert traders, expert analysts, newbie analysts, people who think that they're analysts, TA experts, whatever type of analyst they are, they have one thing in common.
Yes they are been addressed as analysts, but they can't predict the future still.

What they're doing is speculating the market. If this happen, that will happen blah blah blah. That's the main point of their analysis. If Bitcoin's price reach X price, it might start a bull market. They are using the words "might" so that they say to the public that what they are saying is just a prediction, and don't follow them. Don't rely too much on their prediction because we average persons can also predict as well. We can do what they can do. The only difference is that, we aren't analysts at all while they are... so-called analysts.

Analysts are humans, and humans make mistakes. In the end, it's up to the investor if they will make a decision base on their prediction or  not.

I think this is such an important information that newbies need to learn. I mean they think that people like that could end up with a great result but the reality is that we are not going to see them have that kind of result at all. We should be considering this as a bad thing and should not give them all that much time in the world.

I think it's close to making it work one way or another and should definitely end up being important in the end. I know that it will not be all that simple and should be something that would be a bit different. I understand that we are going to end up with something that will be a bit different all together, and we could end up with a result that would be just pure wrong if we base our trades on what "experts" are saying.

Before we choose people's analysis, it would be better for us to have a good understanding of the analysis that we will choose for the investment that we will carry out, because they may just make an analysis that is not based on their knowledge and if we understand it then we can avoid that analysis because it is not there is something wrong with choosing other people's analysis when making investments, but I think we will be very satisfied if we make our own decisions and the decisions we make can benefit us.

[jasonjm]

The fact is that no one in the World can predict the Bitcoin price action with accuracy. They are humans, and we do make mistakes. Many of these analysts want to make themselves relevant and in the news. Most of the time, people are just guessing about the market; even technical analysts sometimes can't predict because of the extreme volatility and the involvement of institutional investors. As far as Benjamin Cowen's prediction is concerned, $23k by the end of September was quite realistic. At least there are predictions that the price would touch $20k or lower at some point in the next few months.

[karabiber]

In a volatile and fragile market, it is very difficult for analysts to make the right decisions.  But analysts are the indispensable guides of the crypto markets. By following the right analysts and blending your own interpretation and market view, you can make the right decisions for the future of cryptocurrencies. It would be naive to unconditionally trust analysts judgment. But this is what a newcomer to the market would do.

The thing i notice the most about the crypto market is that there are a lot of scam analysts. Because the crypto market is the most difficult market to predict and the accuracy of the predictions made here is unfortunately very low. We will always need analysts but you need to research the analyst very well. You should not believe every analysis.

[Mpamaegbu]

This article: $23,000 Bitcoin (BTC) Prediction Changed by Analyst Benjamin Cowen is a proof that no one knows the future.  Benjamin Cowen is a prominent analyst that states that Bitcoin will be hitting 23k at the end of September.

I wouldn't even lambast him for his narrowly missed prediction. $23k from $27k isn't such a huge gap. What about those who predicted that Bitcoin would be around $250k? Those ones should be dragged for their wild goose chase. It's way off, completely. Again, in this industry, we've to realize that FOMO and FUD are the kingpins. Those who make these wide margin predictions may likely be people hodling gargantuan amount of Bitcoin and looking for ways to dispose them at a comfortable price. They shill it and get others to buy in and drive price up, they quietly offload theirs on the market and leave. Going forward, I don't think Mr Cowen should be lambasted because price didn't exactly get to hit his target. It's just speculation and nobody is perfect at it.

[bitgolden]

The fact is that no one in the World can predict the Bitcoin price action with accuracy. They are humans, and we do make mistakes. Many of these analysts want to make themselves relevant and in the news. Most of the time, people are just guessing about the market; even technical analysts sometimes can't predict because of the extreme volatility and the involvement of institutional investors. As far as Benjamin Cowen's prediction is concerned, $23k by the end of September was quite realistic. At least there are predictions that the price would touch $20k or lower at some point in the next few months.

That is what makes it so much fun as well, we are doing something that is basically blind throwing of a dart, and that is why it is so much sweet when we managed to hit bullseye. I had it once, I wasn't entirely sure but I had a good return and I think it was one of the richest moments in my entire life as well. I am going to try the same thing again, but back in 2020 when at the start it dropped to around 4k or so I bought a lot when it was around 6k, and I said that I will keep holding it as long as possible and sold most of it at around 56 to 58k dollars, sure I could have bought cheaper at 4k and sold higher at 68k but it was still a huge return for me without a doubt.

I think the same may happen, gonna buy on the first 3-4 months of 2024 as much as I can afford, going to be a tough one for personal reasons and may not be able to do it, but I may even take a loan fi I have to and consider buying, and then hope that in a year or so it will go up to a great place and make me insane amount of profit once again.

[danadc]

I have a way of seeing when I can believe or not believe in Bitcoin analysts, and it is summed up when almost all the analyzes agree that the price will rise or fall , but I like to know what the meaning of whale waves is. I really like that and especially what the WO guys think, because they give me another perspective and I like what they think there because it's very funny. There are also many people who know too much and I like that a lot because it's very different from what I know. It can be found in any article, that is why we have to look for many Opinions, and when you are going to buy it is much better to be sure, but no matter what the price is , it is good to buy.

[Sophokles]

I have a way of seeing when I can believe or not believe in Bitcoin analysts, and it is summed up when almost all the analyzes agree that the price will rise or fall , but I like to know what the meaning of whale waves is. I really like that and especially what the WO guys think, because they give me another perspective and I like what they think there because it's very funny. There are also many people who know too much and I like that a lot because it's very different from what I know. It can be found in any article, that is why we have to look for many Opinions, and when you are going to buy it is much better to be sure, but no matter what the price is , it is good to buy.

WO guys are mostly bullish on bitcoin no matter what the market condition is. I think their opinion is biased and far from the actual fact. We don't need to look for many peoples opinions. When you see that all of the media and news channels, influencers and non crypto guys are talking about bitcoin and their sentiment is bulish then you should prepare for a rally.

However halving can be used as a date to determine the expected bitcoin price fluctuation. When the bull is in control of the market the whole market shows positive sign and a lot of determination towards bitcoins success.

[Asuspawer09]

It was kinda normal that this kind of thing happened since no one really can accurately predict the market because it is determined by supply and demand also just too many factors affecting its market price so its really impossible to predict it. I mean September for sure is not going to be a good month even in the past years for cryptocurrency so that's probably why they have this kind of prediction but it was pretty common, we could just depend on our experience on how the cryptocurrency is going to react to this kind of events especially in the Bitcoin halving event our basis is just how the past Bitcoin halving price have reacted and base on the timeline we could easily save that the Bullrun was going to be around 2025.

For sure we should acknowledge that Bitcoin is a really risky investment because of its volatile market price, and having that though we should not relay on cryptocurrency as something that our daily source of income, if we can do not depend on it we could easily hold our investment/cryptocurrency for long term making it easy for investors to wait for the Bullrun.

[dunfida]

The fact is that no one in the World can predict the Bitcoin price action with accuracy. They are humans, and we do make mistakes. Many of these analysts want to make themselves relevant and in the news. Most of the time, people are just guessing about the market; even technical analysts sometimes can't predict because of the extreme volatility and the involvement of institutional investors. As far as Benjamin Cowen's prediction is concerned, $23k by the end of September was quite realistic. At least there are predictions that the price would touch $20k or lower at some point in the next few months.

That is what makes it so much fun as well, we are doing something that is basically blind throwing of a dart, and that is why it is so much sweet when we managed to hit bullseye. I had it once, I wasn't entirely sure but I had a good return and I think it was one of the richest moments in my entire life as well. I am going to try the same thing again, but back in 2020 when at the start it dropped to around 4k or so I bought a lot when it was around 6k, and I said that I will keep holding it as long as possible and sold most of it at around 56 to 58k dollars, sure I could have bought cheaper at 4k and sold higher at 68k but it was still a huge return for me without a doubt.

I think the same may happen, gonna buy on the first 3-4 months of 2024 as much as I can afford, going to be a tough one for personal reasons and may not be able to do it, but I may even take a loan fi I have to and consider buying, and then hope that in a year or so it will go up to a great place and make me insane amount of profit once again.

Good call on selling out those prices and able to get those 6k which no one had anticipated that it would really be bringing up a huge bounce after that dip. If we do tend to recall then tons of people or the entire community is really that even looking for $1k price bottom but it didnt really been able to go that low and afterwards then it did shoot up and breaking that $19k ATH and then goes with that $69k ceiling or peak.
In that case, i was able to sell on 40k but didnt hit up that 69k yet which it did make out some regret which we know that it cant really be avoided most of the time on having those mixed up feelings and emotions
knowing that this market is always been unpredictable in the first place. There's no way on knowing precisely on where it would be going and just like on what you have said that this is really just that like
when you do throw off those darts and tending to hit up the bullseye.

On this cycle, it is really that hard to determine on when would be the last crash or bear price before things turns out to moon again. Less that 20k? Possible or even more lower.
But i do have doubts that 15k was the bottom but well lets see on how it would go.

[Silberman]

It was kinda normal that this kind of thing happened since no one really can accurately predict the market because it is determined by supply and demand also just too many factors affecting its market price so its really impossible to predict it. I mean September for sure is not going to be a good month even in the past years for cryptocurrency so that's probably why they have this kind of prediction but it was pretty common, we could just depend on our experience on how the cryptocurrency is going to react to this kind of events especially in the Bitcoin halving event our basis is just how the past Bitcoin halving price have reacted and base on the timeline we could easily save that the Bullrun was going to be around 2025.

For sure we should acknowledge that Bitcoin is a really risky investment because of its volatile market price, and having that though we should not relay on cryptocurrency as something that our daily source of income, if we can do not depend on it we could easily hold our investment/cryptocurrency for long term making it easy for investors to wait for the Bullrun.

The markets are simply too complex to be predicted, even if there was a way to aggregate the opinions of every single market participant before they were reflected on the price of bitcoin, you will still fail to predict the price of bitcoin accurately, and this is because all kind of events keep happening that no one can see coming, which generate an unpredictable response on traders and investors alike and that can make any prediction completely useless just minutes after it was published.