September didn't follow its bear cycle

[Reatim]

Going back a full month, in late August or early September, many people on several site and on the cryptocurrency Twitter were suddenly very vocal in saying that September was bound to be bearish for Bitcoin because the previous two had seen significant dips and because September is simply historically one of the worst performing months for cryptocurrency.

But this time was different:


While history can never be exactly the same, it does frequently rhyme, therefore this does not mean that we should dismiss it entirely. The past, present, and future must all be balanced, and we must pay attention to both the past and the present as well as the future.

Each Year has each movement , not because some has almost the same scenario and movement or what they called History repeating itself yet some years are far different.
and lets not just rely to what others are calling or predicting because market depends on how we deal on it.
so better to believe your instinct than believing those people.
specially twitter ? that is far from what comes true mostly.

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[tvplus006]

Going back a full month, in late August or early September, many people on several site and on the cryptocurrency Twitter were suddenly very vocal in saying that September was bound to be bearish for Bitcoin because the previous two had seen significant dips and because September is simply historically one of the worst performing months for cryptocurrency...

This is confirmed only by the fact that Bitcoin does not have any cycles. Therefore, in order to predict the price of Bitcoin for the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the general state of the economy, as well as news that is directly related to the cryptocurrency.

[philipma1957]

Going back a full month, in late August or early September, many people on several site and on the cryptocurrency Twitter were suddenly very vocal in saying that September was bound to be bearish for Bitcoin because the previous two had seen significant dips and because September is simply historically one of the worst performing months for cryptocurrency.

But this time was different:

Here, we can see that despite the lack of significant bullish news, with the possible exception of the release of the Ethereum ETFs, September did close a full +3.9% higher than August. Even so, with such low levels of liquidity as they are at the moment, we don't need much news to impact prices.
In any case, this is yet another example of how previous performance is not a guarantee of future performance. While I personally believe that the past will always and forever be a part of the future, many people simply have a tendency to anticipate the future and base their financial decisions on the past, which I believe to be reckless and nothing more than gambling.

While history can never be exactly the same, it does frequently rhyme, therefore this does not mean that we should dismiss it entirely. The past, present, and future must all be balanced, and we must pay attention to both the past and the present as well as the future.

Why is this BTC thread in alt coins? It looks to me that this should be in economics and not here.

[mirakal]

Going back a full month, in late August or early September, many people on several site and on the cryptocurrency Twitter were suddenly very vocal in saying that September was bound to be bearish for Bitcoin because the previous two had seen significant dips and because September is simply historically one of the worst performing months for cryptocurrency...

This is confirmed only by the fact that Bitcoin does not have any cycles. Therefore, in order to predict the price of Bitcoin for the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the general state of the economy, as well as news that is directly related to the cryptocurrency.

We may have bullish and bearish season but it’s certainly no fixed months when it will hit the market. Even history cannot be a sure guarantee that it’s going to repeat again or might create a new market history. This is a clear evidence that the uncertainty and the unpredictability of the market is even higher than its history.

The only way to predict or determine the current state or season of the market is through close monitoring of the market and its important events that will have an impact on the market. Although history is still important, but it’s never safe to rely on it more often as these current big news and events leave more impact on the market.

[TravelMug]

Going back a full month, in late August or early September, many people on several site and on the cryptocurrency Twitter were suddenly very vocal in saying that September was bound to be bearish for Bitcoin because the previous two had seen significant dips and because September is simply historically one of the worst performing months for cryptocurrency...

This is confirmed only by the fact that Bitcoin does not have any cycles. Therefore, in order to predict the price of Bitcoin for the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the general state of the economy, as well as news that is directly related to the cryptocurrency.

We may have bullish and bearish season but it’s certainly no fixed months when it will hit the market. Even history cannot be a sure guarantee that it’s going to repeat again or might create a new market history. This is a clear evidence that the uncertainty and the unpredictability of the market is even higher than its history.

There could be pattern that we have to look at the past to predict the future, but it could still be a hit more miss as the market is very hard to predict because it's very volatile. Just like in October, I will say that no one expected a huge spike in the price as he simply slice to the barrier that time which is $32k and now we move past it and it's our support line. So it's very unpredictable and we should understand that.

The only way to predict or determine the current state or season of the market is through close monitoring of the market and its important events that will have an impact on the market. Although history is still important, but it’s never safe to rely on it more often as these current big news and events leave more impact on the market.

Or better yet, just be a long term investor so that you won't be affected by this price movement. Just buy thru DCA and go hard week by week, month by month and then just wait for the bull run to occur and then sell your stash slowly to maximized your profits.

[slaman29]

I understand that the current bullish momentum is all related to Blackrock. Which means, bearish pressure is yet to take effect.

Remember, there is always a big dip near halving so we still have to go through one bad period minimum.

World economy is still breaking. In Asia all time inflation and weakness for currencies. This will be felt in crypto. So for us thinking of bullrun, it's coming BUT we must bear a lot of pain first. No way we go up and up all the way from now on.

[Hamza2424]

Hmm, September, Gone November is almost also hitting the ending weeks, September directly follows its bear cycle well here in this industry nothing is reliable if you consider the historical data in the short term, everything mostly goes with the sentiments. NOV mostly people assumed that it would provide the opportunity to re-accumulate the Coins by a healthy correction.

Last night's 1st estimated target was achieved with some of the limit orders filled on the 35k, I'm assuming the second target of around 32k and the last one on the 30k, now it all depends on Friday Let see how it goes.

[Odohu]

I understand that the current bullish momentum is all related to Blackrock. Which means, bearish pressure is yet to take effect.

I was thinking in this direction but there is no substantive evidence to support the claim. When the erroneous tweet by Cointelegraph came out, market responded vigorously leading to a gain of over $5k with few hours before the news was debunked and clarifications made that saw price drop abruptly. This is much of the effect I know the ETF news had on the Bitcoin market. After few days the market rallied and even exceeded the price the ETF news took it to. So I will not assume the news of the ETF is entirely responsible for the gains recorded in Bitcoin price recently... there should be other factors which are yet to be clear.

Remember, there is always a big dip near halving so we still have to go through one bad period minimum.

There may be exception this year unless perhaps, the ETF applications get rejected which will send a shock to the market. However, should the ETF get approval by January 2024, we might not see any serious dip prior to the halving. Nevertheless, it is always safer to keep an open mind and watch the market do what it pleases even as we prepare for whatever be the outcome.

[Nrcewker]

September did better than expected. But it was not bad at all. August did worse than expected. So the price was bound to go up. People saw opportunity when the price was down in August. Hence they intended to buy more coins. To maintain the demand of the coin, the price automatically went up. So nothing much to discuss about this little uptrend. Yes September didn’t follow the past trends, but I am sure, 2024 will be really big for Bitcoins. Just don’t lose hope and wait for the right time.

[slaman29]

I understand that the current bullish momentum is all related to Blackrock. Which means, bearish pressure is yet to take effect.

I was thinking in this direction but there is no substantive evidence to support the claim. When the erroneous tweet by Cointelegraph came out, market responded vigorously leading to a gain of over $5k with few hours before the news was debunked and clarifications made that saw price drop abruptly. This is much of the effect I know the ETF news had on the Bitcoin market. After few days the market rallied and even exceeded the price the ETF news took it to. So I will not assume the news of the ETF is entirely responsible for the gains recorded in Bitcoin price recently... there should be other factors which are yet to be clear.

Remember, there is always a big dip near halving so we still have to go through one bad period minimum.

There may be exception this year unless perhaps, the ETF applications get rejected which will send a shock to the market. However, should the ETF get approval by January 2024, we might not see any serious dip prior to the halving. Nevertheless, it is always safer to keep an open mind and watch the market do what it pleases even as we prepare for whatever be the outcome.

Yup, and that's the other thing I first mentioned that everything is possible as a prediction. Anyone can predict but nothing and absolutely nothing is guaranteed.

I personally think dip/crash around halving will be the case but every cycle has different exceptions. Just that, between no more crash to rally from here on, too good to be true is less likely than, pain first, before joy.

I don't think ETF matters. Short term, but not permanent like actual global economy, war, etc

[Smartvirus]

In any case, this is yet another example of how previous performance is not a guarantee of future performance. While I personally believe that the past will always and forever be a part of the future, many people simply have a tendency to anticipate the future and base their financial decisions on the past, which I believe to be reckless and nothing more than gambling.

While history can never be exactly the same, it does frequently rhyme, therefore this does not mean that we should dismiss it entirely. The past, present, and future must all be balanced, and we must pay attention to both the past and the present as well as the future.

While we remain conscious of history and anticipate a possible recall of times associated phenomenon, we could as well reckon on the fact that, all activities that played out to the resultant isn’t stagnant or designed to occur in the same way. There are bounds to be changes, changes that can alter the timing and occurrence of an event.

It takes just one swift news or change in policy to bring about certain awareness that could result in changes. History is only there to guide you and not act as pointers on what will be. It could either motivate you to take certain investment decisions after identifying certain elements in the market within a period or aid you to decide against.

[Fatunad]

In any case, this is yet another example of how previous performance is not a guarantee of future performance. While I personally believe that the past will always and forever be a part of the future, many people simply have a tendency to anticipate the future and base their financial decisions on the past, which I believe to be reckless and nothing more than gambling.

While history can never be exactly the same, it does frequently rhyme, therefore this does not mean that we should dismiss it entirely. The past, present, and future must all be balanced, and we must pay attention to both the past and the present as well as the future.

While we remain conscious of history and anticipate a possible recall of times associated phenomenon, we could as well reckon on the fact that, all activities that played out to the resultant isn’t stagnant or designed to occur in the same way. There are bounds to be changes, changes that can alter the timing and occurrence of an event.

It takes just one swift news or change in policy to bring about certain awareness that could result in changes. History is only there to guide you and not act as pointers on what will be. It could either motivate you to take certain investment decisions after identifying certain elements in the market within a period or aid you to decide against.

Changes would really be that something that could happen on point and unexpectedly on which means that if ever the price didnt really follow on what it do have on last or previous year then it isnt really that something shocking. Its true that it is really that bound to changes or possibilities that those things wont really be just as the same on where it is on last years. Bear cycle and bullish ones could really be also changed up too.
If we do really tend to zoom out on things then we could really be able to see on what are those factors that could really possibly give out effect into the present price.

We know that there's no one could be able to predict on what the future looks like and this is why it would really be just that normal that changes is really that something that could really be seen on future months or years ahead. This is why it would be always that wise on making out adjustments basing up on the things that we are really that dealing with currently. You would really be needing to be that versatile
if you do really want or like for you to make yourself sustain or else then you would be finding yourself that having kind of problem towards your investment decisions.
Just put up into your mind that price conditions or situations cant really be that the same from time to time or even we do say that there are indeed patterns but there would be no
assurance that similar events could happen on next years to come.

[taufik123]

-snip-
if you do really want or like for you to make yourself sustain or else then you would be finding yourself that having kind of problem towards your investment decisions.
Just put up into your mind that price conditions or situations cant really be that the same from time to time or even we do say that there are indeed patterns but there would be no
assurance that similar events could happen on next years to come.

It's like there's a pattern but it's not really there.
It's still a false thing and the predictions made are still not necessarily the same even when using accurate past data.

But you need to learn about the annual cycle because the cycle will run according to the trend that has occurred.
Look at how the cycles happened in the past, it's almost the same although not completely. But it can be a reminder for you how the cycle can occur at the same moment as the current halving.

November is a good trend for Bitcoin like the previous year, but December will give a little stronger downward pressure because of the Black Friday moment, but it will be a good point of increase for next year.

[Alpha Marine]

So I will not assume the news of the ETF is entirely responsible for the gains recorded in Bitcoin price recently... there should be other factors which are yet to be clear.

I believe the ETF news has a role to play. Maybe not a significant role, but it's still a role because that news will increase the demand for Bitcoin. We can't know the extent of the role it plays.

Another factor is the fact that halving is coming up. People have this thought at the back of their mind and they may be led by different reasons to buy Bitcoin now. Also, people will want to buy now because they are speculating a bull run, so this may be the lowest Bitcoin price would be before the halving.
FOMO has a role to play in this.

[shinratensei_]

So I will not assume the news of the ETF is entirely responsible for the gains recorded in Bitcoin price recently... there should be other factors which are yet to be clear.

I believe the ETF news has a role to play. Maybe not a significant role, but it's still a role because that news will increase the demand for Bitcoin. We can't know the extent of the role it plays.

Another factor is the fact that halving is coming up. People have this thought at the back of their mind and they may be led by different reasons to buy Bitcoin now. Also, people will want to buy now because they are speculating a bull run, so this may be the lowest Bitcoin price would be before the halving.
FOMO has a role to play in this.

the ETF news was going strong it actually caused many people to anticipate the rise of its price therefore increasing the people accumulating and as a result also increase the demands for bitcoin even right now there is news about ethereum ETF that is just as massive bitcoin, once all the good news coming out we won't see bearish as projected by the many speculators out there and even analyst, but instead we will see some massive bullish after all, bullish will eventually come.
if bitcoin didn't follow its usual routing of getting bearish in september when for in the future doesn't that simply means that maybe we'll be seeing a good market with good trend from now on? i guess despite the fact that the price of some coins including bitcoin have risen high enough its still good for accumulation.

[justdimin]

Anyone can predict but nothing and absolutely nothing is guaranteed.

I personally think dip/crash around halving will be the case but every cycle has different exceptions. Just that, between no more crash to rally from here on, too good to be true is less likely than, pain first, before joy.

I don't think ETF matters. Short term, but not permanent like actual global economy, war, etc

I feel like the unexpected is the expected in the crypto world, we do not know what's going to happen and that makes everything expected. The price goes down? That's normal, price goes up? That's normal too. We shouldn't really care about what it does, that is not our job and we should not be expecting it to do one thing and shock when it does the other thing. You should still invest according to what you expect, like if you think it is going to go up then you should buy and if you think it is going to go down then you should sell.

However, just because you expect one thing, doesn't mean you shouldn't be ready when the other direction starts to show itself. Plus just like how it happened in the last week, you should be ready for both moves, it went over 37k, went near 35k and went over 37k again, that's not an unusual thing in the crypto world and definitely something that people should be a prepared for on the long run if you want to profit from investing.

[jeraldskie11]

Anyone can predict but nothing and absolutely nothing is guaranteed.

I personally think dip/crash around halving will be the case but every cycle has different exceptions. Just that, between no more crash to rally from here on, too good to be true is less likely than, pain first, before joy.

I don't think ETF matters. Short term, but not permanent like actual global economy, war, etc

I feel like the unexpected is the expected in the crypto world, we do not know what's going to happen and that makes everything expected. The price goes down? That's normal, price goes up? That's normal too. We shouldn't really care about what it does, that is not our job and we should not be expecting it to do one thing and shock when it does the other thing. You should still invest according to what you expect, like if you think it is going to go up then you should buy and if you think it is going to go down then you should sell.

However, just because you expect one thing, doesn't mean you shouldn't be ready when the other direction starts to show itself. Plus just like how it happened in the last week, you should be ready for both moves, it went over 37k, went near 35k and went over 37k again, that's not an unusual thing in the crypto world and definitely something that people should be a prepared for on the long run if you want to profit from investing.

I highly agree with you. Traders will benefit the most in this idea since they can still make profit when the market is bearish, unlike investing you can only get profit when the price increases. The current price action of Bitcoin is making the higher high, and many people thought that the HH is 35k but it's not. The current high is $38k and if the price won't break this high possibly it will going to retrace to get enough liquidity below to send the price higher. Just like what you have said, be like water, just go with the flow of the market.

[michellee]

Bitcoin's journey is indeed very interesting to follow because many people are still analyzing it based on what has happened before. They make predictions about what might happen. Many of these make two possibilities that could happen. One time, the price direction increases. And secondly, when the price direction decreases.

From the predictions they make, they will determine what they should do. If they are in doubt, they will do nothing and watch the market move. If they see any signs of increasing or decreasing, then they will start placing buy or sell orders. It will depend on where the market is moving.

We cannot rely on history because everything has changed now. More people are using Bitcoin as an investment, making many people join the crypto market. That means anything can happen and we have to be able to analyze it to find something useful for us. And now, we are seeing the price get another correction because this may be the weekend. Usually, corrections come at weekends like now.

[DeathAngel]

History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes. We can’t base our trading or investment plans on what happened in the past. Obviously we can use indicators & various charts to base an opinion but there are many factors to consider. We should be heading into a bullish period for a couple of years now so bear that in mind.

[dezoel]

We should all come to terms with the fact that "usual" stuff or whatever is not real, we do not have "usually it does this after this", that's not real, chart reading is not done that way, what happened is not deciding factor on what will happen. What you could do with indicators is seeing what people are readying up for, like if there is a big wall at 37k and no wall until 42k, you could see that from the charts, and yes then you can invest, or have 38k a big wall and no wall until 30k, then yeah it may go down. But to say that you have seen it do head and shoulders so you think it will go up, that's silly.

September was a good month, October was even better, and November seems to be awesome, we just need to see those as the reality. We are nearing the bull run right now and we need to end up with something that will benefit us on the long run, if we can't do that then we are not going to end up with anything good. We should be considering that as an option and we could end up doing better.