CZ's view on Halving

[Twinkledoe]

CZ got his points, but that's not unique, it's based on the history of how market reacts to halving, and many people said the same. Tho with the current economic condition and people have more experience on the effect of halving and how Bitcoin market react to it, I doubt people will are still hoping that Bitcoin will double the price immediately after halving, most of Bitcoin speculators should already learn that Bitcoin halving effect on the market is not instant. And the thus could also make the time frame when Bitcoin will reach new ATH after the halving, probably longer than just a year.

He is also playing safe with his pieces of advice to people. Because he is one of the popular personalities to whom people looked up to in this market, he's being conservative with his views. But those simple statements are actually valuable if you internalize its importance when it comes to your decisions with what you will do with your porftolio.

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[BitDane]

CZ's view is just a common knowledge but a very conservative one.  It is like CZ playing it safe by saying the history does not predict the future, but we all know in Bitcoin history, the cycle keeps repeating itself (reason why it is called a cycle  )  I agree to all things CZ stated it is that I felt that the last one is somehow missing something.  Probably that is stated to not give hope to people that can backfire to him but I don't find any wrong by stating the history repeat itself which is supported by one of his (CZ) statement.

Anyway, I also get that CZ wants people to observe calmly.  Don't FOMO or get affected by FUD.

[bhadz]

He's right that people are forgetting their memories of how the bull run comes and it doesn't come in an instant when the halving is just done. It may take a year or several months before it activates and that's why don't hurry when the halving is around and you need to be more patient than the others. We've seen it for a couple of times on how the halving comes and that should give you the hope to remain steadfast and don't let the bad news get you or else you'll miss it when it comes. Usually when it's just recently done, he's right about mix feelings, emotions are everywhere.

[Mpamaegbu]

Everything CZ said there was apt. I like his foresight and ingenuity in this industry. Though his last sentence about history not being able to predict the future is the one I don't agree to. I'm of the opinion that the  Bitcoin circle of past events leading to halving or after it will repeat itself. I've witnessed two post-Bitcoin halving events out of the three and both I witnessed played out the same way. Prediction is speculation, and that's what gives us a glimpse of the furure. We speculate of things from what we assume we know of them from past data and that's what we're doing with Bitcoin to guage what the incoming halving will be. That's us trying to determine what happens in future.

[Z-tight]

and they can also make it harder or easier to mine Bitcoin.

BTC halving doesn't affect mining in the sense of making it easier or more difficult to mine, though BTC mining can affect mining profitablility as block reward is halved. As for mining being either harder or easier, that depends on BTC mining difficulty adjustment, and it happens automatically after every 2,016 mined blocks, this is to ensure that blocks are found ~ 10 minutes on average.

[arabspaceship123]

Insightfully, this also advises calm and a need not to miss out at the same time for at least a full year.

Here's another halving thread this time it's CZ talking about his insights. Investing at halving during isn't risk free so be careful we've shouldn't invest unless we're able to absorb losses.

Whatever he described is pretty much what happened in the past, but I think it will be similar — probably with just a quite-delayed step #3; simply because bitcoin holders are betting too much on the #3 part that I think it will be decently delayed.

Isn't it possible it's going to work out different if there's a selling movement. I don't know what's going to happen in step #3 but if record prices happen after delays it'll be a new experience.

[DapanasFruit]

I think the same pattern is now emerging for Bitcoin halving which is scheduled in 2024. As long as we are still dealing with humans and not AI-made personalities, then we have to assume we are creatures of habits. In other words, we are just repeating history. As what I heard somewhere, there can be some storms before the rainbow can appear. There can be some chaotic confusion before the roller-coaster will stop for some moments. Now, am wondering: How we can make some profits out of this pattern?

[DabsPoorVersion]

I think the same pattern is now emerging for Bitcoin halving which is scheduled in 2024. As long as we are still dealing with humans and not AI-made personalities, then we have to assume we are creatures of habits. In other words, we are just repeating history. As what I heard somewhere, there can be some storms before the rainbow can appear. There can be some chaotic confusion before the roller-coaster will stop for some moments.

History indeed repeats itself. CZ actually does have a point; many have witnessed the halving last 2017 and we can all say that the same cycle does happen on the previous halving. But then again, this is not solid proof that the same thing will happen again for this coming halving. We may expect more news or hype that will try to manipulate the price of Bitcoin, as the number of people who know about it grows larger than before.

Now, am wondering: How we can make some profits out of this pattern?

What you can do is allocate Bitcoin while its price is still around $20k. Do DCA until next year or until you see the effect of halving. We may not guarantee the exact date, but we should expect the unexpected.

[arabspaceship123]

Humans are creatures of habit so it's possible to expect the same trends but there's too many ppl buying-selling bitcoin now. I mean compared to the last halving more ppl trade so previous patterns aren't the best indicator of what's going to happen next time.

I think the same pattern is now emerging for Bitcoin halving which is scheduled in 2024. As long as we are still dealing with humans and not AI-made personalities, then we have to assume we are creatures of habits. In other words, we are just repeating history. As what I heard somewhere, there can be some storms before the rainbow can appear. There can be some chaotic confusion before the roller-coaster will stop for some moments. Now, am wondering: How we can make some profits out of this pattern?

[Minecache]

CZ got his points, but that's not unique, it's based on the history of how market reacts to halving, and many people said the same. Tho with the current economic condition and people have more experience on the effect of halving and how Bitcoin market react to it, I doubt people will are still hoping that Bitcoin will double the price immediately after halving, most of Bitcoin speculators should already learn that Bitcoin halving effect on the market is not instant. And the thus could also make the time frame when Bitcoin will reach new ATH after the halving, probably longer than just a year.

Only old investors know that the bull season will not happen immediately when the halving happens, but from what I see from newbies, they think the bull season will come immediately when the halving occurs. Many people are even confident that bitcoin will not decrease anymore because the closer the halving gets, the more people will buy bitcoin. From there, the price of bitcoin will slowly increase without any significant price drops. If based on history, newbies have a wrong view of the bull season, but there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself, so things cannot be easily predicted.

[Latviand]

I'm not going to lie but what CZ said is just a common sense, nothing profound to get out of it, just a keen observation of what to do when you feel unsure of the market movement at best. But I guess given that he's a prominent cryptocurrency figure it's going to be generating some social ease on people that's a bit worried about the market so in the end, I feel like me hating on what he's saying would be a nonsense thing to do, it's not like he's promoting anything besides the halving countdown clock on Binance.

[JunaidAzizi]

At the beginning of the post, he said that I am not predicting the future of Bitcoin, it is clear from it that the above points are just the information he take from history and everyone who is receptive to Bitcoin will know this. The points he shared are just about awareness and information. The first point shows that Bitcoin halving will occur in 2024 and after halving many peoples are coming to make you fool so don't be trapped the next two points is just clarification that many people believe that after halving bull will start but actually the bull will start after one year of the halving means 2025 will  the next  bull run which will go up to the (ATH)

[EarnOnVictor]

This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

I view this as a too-know coming from you, even if billions know a thing, once it's coming from a particular person, what do they call it? Your view or general?

Besides, this is regardless of people's knowledge, a piece coming from him directly could influence some people who didn't want to give it a shot initially or are confused with tons of cabbage online. That makes it an individuality affair which is more powerful and influencing than each other.

You might want to further read from this user amongst others who understand the situation better:

I have the same experience as CZ had. It maybe a common knowledge for those people who are in crypto space for long but for newbies it's not. Maybe the goal why CZ posted this is because he want to educate newbies or those who didn't know about this info. This can motivate them into investing into bitcoin as early as now and not expect a sudden jump in price after the halving. It's a good information that newbies should learn.

[thecodebear]

Whatever he described is pretty much what happened in the past, but I think it will be similar — probably with just a quite-delayed step #3; simply because bitcoin holders are betting too much on the #3 part that I think it will be decently delayed.

It'll be interesting. I think there are A LOT of people who now have a stubbornly ingrained negative view towards Bitcoin and Crypto, and I think that dampens how many new multitudes of first timers will be flooding into Bitcoin in FOMO as compared to past cycles. Like it is literally at the point where if you simply tell someone you own Bitcoin lots of people will assume you are some sort of scammer or toxic "crypto bro". Token scams and meme coin shills and NFT shills of the last cycle have given the whole space a bad reputation with a lot of people. That plus assuming the US is still an antagonistic regulatory environment to the space in 2024/25 I think will also blunt the sort of next wave of corporations venturing into Bitcoin holding that we saw start in 2020/2021 as well as Americans in general.

No doubt there will be a bull market, but I think it could be dulled due to these things. I feel like we need to go through another cycle / another few years before people stop hating on the space so much. Like if this is a smaller bull run, and therefore also a much less drastic crash than normal afterwards, and if the regulatory environment in the US clears out over the next few years (mostly if we get an SEC chair that isn't biased against Bitcoin and Congress makes sensible rules for the space to both protect it and guide it), I think Bitcoin could have a much stronger end of the decade than middle of the decade.




One good thing is it seems like the whole smart contract world is fading (and I think its not just because we're at that part of the market cycle). NFT pictures, random thousands of crypto apps, meme tokens, all the various layer 1 smart contract chains...kinda feels like they are all dying. Even Musk trying to shill Dogecoin doesn't do anything more than give it a small temporary boost before it settles back down at its 6 cents. People are just tired of the endless fluff in the market. I'm sure some old and new ones will get hyped again this cycle, but I think that fact that literally ALL the big hyped up next gen super awesome L1 smart contract platforms from last cycle petered out and are essentially dead has kinda started to convince the market that Bitcoin and to a much lesser extent Ethereum are the only legit things to put money into and to trust to have future viability. Like, who cares about Polkadot, Cardano, Luna, Avalanche, Solana, and so on at this point?? Not many people and I think it'll be real hard to convince people to get back into them or newer ones this next cycle. I don't expect any of those hyped up chains from last cycle to hit their 2021 highs in this upcoming cycle, so as with everything else other than Ethereum (so far) they will be going toward zero against Bitcoin long term.

I feel like we are gonna start to see things shift back to a Bitcoin focus over the next decade as people get more and more tired of all the cr*p in the altcoin world and people gradually get at least a little bit educated on Bitcoin, and as Bitcoin gets integrated into classic finance systems like with ETFs eventually, btc offered on Wall St exchanges, through banks, btc payments slowly starts gaining more acceptance, etc. I think the world is starting to realize nobody wants a thousand apps with a thousand different tokens and that whole idea was completely bonkers in the first place. The tokenization of crypto apps was a race to the bottom. What makes sense is apps using a single universal currency, not a thousand different cheap weak ones.

[kryptqnick]

CZ's post is very moderate and balanced, as he's merely talking about his point of view and acknowledges that it doesn't mean that there's a causal relation there or that history predicts the future.
I certainly agree with the first two points about discussions and about the price not doubling overnight, but #3 is pretty easy to check, so let's check. However, I must say that I initially thought he means that the price reaches an ATH in a year (so a year must pass), but not I think he means that it happens within a year several times.

Bitcoin halving of 2016 happened in July. Within a year from then, Bitcoin did reach new highs of $1800, $2400 and $3k, so I support it's technically true, but what it's missing is the rapid bull marker of September-December of 2017, in which Bitcoin reached almost $20k and which is considered the ATH of that time period.
Let's also have a look at halving of 2020, which was in May. Within a year, there were again multiple ATHs, such as almost $40k in January 2021, almost $58k in February 2021, and $63.5k in April 2021. So, again, it's true, but then in November 2021, the price reached over $67k, which isn't within this time frame.

So I guess he's correct, even though this view does not point to when the market reaches the top.

[Lucius]

This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

You hit the point, and there is really nothing more to say, at least not for those who are not big fans of the great crypto messiah who is trying (obviously successfully) to sell them general knowledge as something of his own. This is the same man who claims that 99% of people involved in "crypto" will lose their digital assets because they store them in non-custodial wallets.

The man literally claims that 99% of these people are stupid, and I think it's stupid to trust such a man.

‘99% of People' Will Lose Crypto Storing in Self-Custody: Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao

[OcTradism]

You hit the point, and there is really nothing more to say, at least not for those who are not big fans of the great crypto messiah who is trying (obviously successfully) to sell them general knowledge as something of his own. This is the same man who claims that 99% of people involved in "crypto" will lose their digital assets because they store them in non-custodial wallets.

The man literally claims that 99% of these people are stupid, and I think it's stupid to trust such a man.

There are free resources to learn about Bitcoin, Bitcoin halvings. People are too lazy and did not do own research, did not learn anything. When an influencer makes a tweet, they believe that knowledge is right and automatically believe it.

Knowledge sharing must be verified too because not all sharing are correct.

Controlled supply.
Compare bull markets.

[Wind_FURY]

This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

You hit the point, and there is really nothing more to say, at least not for those who are not big fans of the great crypto messiah who is trying (obviously successfully) to sell them general knowledge as something of his own. This is the same man who claims that 99% of people involved in "crypto" will lose their digital assets because they store them in non-custodial wallets.

The man literally claims that 99% of these people are stupid, and I think it's stupid to trust such a man.

‘99% of People' Will Lose Crypto Storing in Self-Custody: Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao

Plus just because there's a "halving", which limits the supply side, it doesn't truly mean that it will increase the demand side. Would Bitcoin really surge in a recession environment simply because the inflation per block was cut in half?

We should also take the money printer into consideration.

As observed in this chart, the movement of Bitcoin went with the positive year on year growth of the global money supply, as well as the negative contraction year on year.



Although the halving makes Bitcoin more scarce, and therefore "more precious", the demand side is also as important.

Shower thought, did Satoshi put the expansion and the contraction of the global money supply into consideration when he made a design-decision of Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle?

 

[Woodie]

CZ just summed up(echoed) what actually happens as we approach the halving and post-reaction of the markets after the halving itself.

• 1st we see a slight bump of price as we get nearer to the actual halving date
• 2ndly markets don't go up instantly to match up the hype, maybe because others sell immediately after seeing no real rise from the halving
• 3rdly when the dust settles, markets now show their true direction and price is bullish at this time
• Lastly a hard fall follows after a lot of users sell to get their profits and the cycle is complete (no one talks about this part)

I think it's safe to say we know the drill that comes with Bitcoin halving.

[freedomgo]

These are just based on Bitcoin's historical price movements before and after halving. We don't need to change anything here. Since the halving is getting closer, we should be gearing up and not miss out on the action.

CZ is one of the most successful figures in the crypto world, owning one of the biggest, if not the biggest, exchanges. He has a solid reputation for not hyping things like Elon Musk does. He's just laying out the facts, backed by figures and events from the past. So, it would be crazy to go against the trend; that would put us on the losing side as investors.

The more people enjoy the bullish sentiment, the sooner a bull run is likely to come. That's what we all want, right?