CZ's view on Halving

[EarnOnVictor]

I came across a feed today that shares the view of the Binance CEO on halving and I thought I should share it with you guys as I see it informative and no information is too small.



I can't agree more on this as part of what he states is happening now. The "chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope" and speculation are now littering the internet.

Insightfully, this also advises calm and a need not to miss out at the same time for at least a full year.

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[Z-tight]

This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Either this is coming from CZ or not, halving is going to take place next year and obviously almost all the three items listed above are coming to pass, though am also surprised that cz is talking like this for the first time not considering his own interests first being an exchange or introducing something that could help distract people to invest on his Binance coin, alot of people have been giving their own side view also concerning halving and if this is all coming from CZ, then i think he's less considerate about himself this time.

[Oshosondy]

I saw this on the news few months ago: 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-ceo-cz-predicts-next-bitcoin-bull-run

It was about CZ predicting bitcoin price after bull run. That was July 5th.

CZ is right but that is all we all know on this forum and not new to us. But probably this can encourage the novices to invest in bitcoin some weeks or months before halving.

[mk4]

Whatever he described is pretty much what happened in the past, but I think it will be similar — probably with just a quite-delayed step #3; simply because bitcoin holders are betting too much on the #3 part that I think it will be decently delayed.

[salad daging]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-ceo-cz-predicts-next-bitcoin-bull-run
It was about CZ predicting bitcoin price after bull run. That was July 5th.

The article states about CZ that the next most likely bullish year is 2025, which is very relevant and suggests that this guess is very much in line with some other influential people.

CZ is right but that is all we all know on this forum and not new to us. But probably this can encourage the novices to invest in bitcoin some weeks or months before halving.

Any news from outside will be widely discussed on the forum and indeed this is not new considering many speculations guessing the same year.
Encouraging beginners to invest from now on is important for their awareness before it's too late and into the halving year although I suppose after that there is still time for them to keep investing.

[Raflesia]

Even though it was said directly by the CZ account, but looking at the overall picture that he said this was only a big picture of some of the things that happened from several previous halvings so it was quite natural that he said that because indeed from several halvings that he had always felt before it became an experience and what he said was based on what we had felt from several halvings that occurred.

I think regardless of whether it's CZ or not everyone who has experienced the halving and lived through it to this day will talk the same way because it is something like this but indeed on the other hand for part of the hype, expectations and news anxiety etc. things like that we cannot prevent even if it is said to be dirty but still we will still deal with it.

[digaran]

Have you asked this question?, if people already know that price will hit ATH several times after halving, why aren't they buying right now? Answer is really easy, they don't want to risk it, everybody is just waiting for the hype to start so they can ride the waves and earn max profits.


Anyways it's not recommended to use or at least hold any amount of crypto in centralized exchanges. Don't forget that.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Unfortunately, many people do not realize that subsequent halvings, from a fundamental point of view, have less and less impact on the price, and on the other hand, it is already becoming a large and significant asset tossed around by external forces such as wars, economic crises, etc.

1st halving was important. It reduced monetary inflation from 25% to 12%. Thats a big deal. Second halving decreased monetary inflation from 9% to 4,5%. Now we are getting closer and closer to the 4th halving that will reduce bitcoin monetary inflation from like 1.5% to 0.7%. Both numbers are negligible compared to 8% official CPI in US, 10% in EU or 80% in countries like Turkey. So my bet is that halvings fundamental impact on bitcoin price is getting lower and lower with every next halving in oppose to macro data, FED decisions, interest rates, recessions etc. Bitcoin will be more like an asset that act sometimes like gold on steroids sometimes like sp500 on steroids rather than it will fallow "bubble x days before each halving scheme"

So, in my opinion, a scenario is possible in which bitcoin will behave unexpectedly, because for example the news that China intends to keep part of its reserves in bitcoin so as not to have to buy American bonds. Such news will pump price in 2024 and after halving period will be "take profit time" instead of massive pump.

[rhomelmabini]

Well, past halving histories never disappoints the ATH stuff. For me the predictability is present but what if we're wrong this time and what if we just experience stability in price and not some ATH? If we're about to see new ATH by 2024-2025 then I'd say we  better position right now.

[franky1]

the reason why (2&3) is simple
mining farms do not pay daily bills to need to sell daily.
instead they mine and hoard seasonally

before even mining they contract in bulk deals of asics for a 2 year life cycle and also they dont pay daily/weekly electric but buy allotments of GW at a preferred bulk price to cover 2 years of continual mining

because they bought 2 years of running. it doesnt matter what the markets do daily. they have 2 years to mine so there is no point stopping/starting or pool jumping to altcoins to play the markets. they just continually mine no matter what and then count up the coins rewarded at the nd of the season

it is at the end of these contracts where they negotiate the next seasons deal where they then look at the amount of coin they hoarded vs cost vs market price to then calculate the value they need to continue operation. it is at this point that they will move the market to meet their expectations

this is usually done a year before a halving and a year after halving
which is why the historic patterns show the start of a bull is the year before halving and the end of the bull peaks a year after the halving

however. market traders know this pattern and will take opportunity to fight the pattern for maximum gain, so this pattern may not continue as expected because other traders expecting the pattern will trade against it for their benefit

[floridaman86]

I posted this on another thread, but it seems more appropriate here.
It seems to be pretty neutral at the moment. But everyone seems to  think that the halving next year will trigger a massive bull rally, and this confuses me.
If everyone already knows about the halving, the wouldn't it be baked in? I seem to be the only one that thinks it ain't gonna make a difference in the price

[Sim_card]

CZ is talking from his experience, and anyone that has experience previous halving already know that this is what happens close to the halving and after the halving. I believe that the past three halving, bitcoin followed the same pattern and this next one wouldn't be different, history will be repeated again. Everyone is waiting patiently and watching how the market is moving to see if there will be much expectations from the halving, and maybe that is when more nocoiners will start buying, when they are carried away by the hype. Just keep on accumulating and forget about whatever anyone is saying about the next bull run because bitcoin price will shock a lot of people.

[abel1337]

I have the same experience as CZ had. It maybe a common knowledge for those people who are in crypto space for long but for newbies it's not. Maybe the goal why CZ posted this is because he want to educate newbies or those who didn't know about this info. This can motivate them into investing into bitcoin as early as now and not expect a sudden jump in price after the halving. It's a good information that newbies should learn.

[Zaguru12]

Have you asked this question?, if people already know that price will hit ATH several times after halving, why aren't they buying right now? Answer is really easy, they don't want to risk it, everybody is just waiting for the hype to start so they can ride the waves and earn max profits.

It could also be that people are waiting for deep fall in price first before they would accumulate more bitcoin. Just like how the past histories or trend have shown that bitcoin hits a new ATH like a year after halving so is the case of it getting to lower price before the halving. Some even predicted that the last quarter of this years would experience the price low of about $20k less and some people are actually waiting for the right time.

But waiting for the price to go down before buying isn’t a wise move but rather using the DCA method to accumulate whenever you have the funds ready. This way you don’t get to wait for an opportunity that is not certain of happening.

For me the predictability is present but what if we're wrong this time and what if we just experience stability in price and not some ATH?

This can be possible considering the events surrounding the price movement of late. I’m the past years the last month August and September are usually filled with red lines but this year’s we experienced something of a stable price with slight movement. So even if the market trend changes a bit after next halving I wouldn’t be too surprised, the only thing is I am hodling till my target gets reached

[ColdLava40]

CZ is very right. I think new people have joined the crypto verse within the last 4 years, which literally means that large numbers of crypto ethusiast don't have halving experience. Halving news is gonna get more hotter as we drive closer to the very moment, which will put more pressure in the market, making most people want to buy more Bitcoin.

[Asuspawer09]

I came across a feed today that shares the view of the Binance CEO on halving and I thought I should share it with you guys as I see it informative and no information is too small.



I can't agree more on this as part of what he states is happening now. The "chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope" and speculation are now littering the internet.

Insightfully, this also advises calm and a need not to miss out at the same time for at least a full year.

Exactly what i am saying to this Bitcoin halving event stuff, and based on my experience as well when we are near the halving we are probably going to see a small pump just because it is for sure going to be trending and there will be a small hype about the Bitcoin halving event but it wasn't really going to be crazy I guess investors or newbies are just starting to think about it that they really needed to accumulate or invest on Bitcoin because the event is already near so that they could easily earn a profit in case the market price skyrocket.

the second one is on the actual event there will be no crazy skyrocket price at that time because probably the hype was already calm because the market price already increased a lot when the event is just near, investors are going to realize that the market is not really having a lot of movement making the traders afraid and sell their investment. After that, most of the time a year around that time is probably where the actual Bull Run could hit because it is probably where the actual effect of the event is going to be felt.

[philipma1957]

Well, past halving histories never disappoints the ATH stuff. For me the predictability is present but what if we're wrong this time and what if we just experience stability in price and not some ATH? If we're about to see new ATH by 2024-2025 then I'd say we  better position right now.

If we go flat mining will leave in droves.

A 30 watt miner doing 100th burns 75 kwatts so at five cents it costs 3.75 to run it.

it is earning 6 a day. so it makes  2.25

when ½ ing  comes it earns 3 and burns 3.5 a loss of 50 cents

So if we go flat and hit the ½ at 27k miners will shut down.

and “this time it is different” would be true.

[EFS]

CZ is very right. I think new people have joined the crypto verse within the last 4 years, which literally means that large numbers of crypto ethusiast don't have halving experience. Halving news is gonna get more hotter as we drive closer to the very moment, which will put more pressure in the market, making most people want to buy more Bitcoin.

Only time will tell if he's right or wrong. What happened in the past is no guarantee of what will happen in the future. The same situation can produce different results because there are many different variables. What CZ said is generally what is expected, but this doesn't mean that it will definitely happen again. The actions of those who entered the market in recent years and have a few coins aren't very important. What is more important is what those who hold large amounts of coins and have the possibility of influencing the market will do.

[lombok]

Have you asked this question?, if people already know that price will hit ATH several times after halving, why aren't they buying right now? Answer is really easy, they don't want to risk it, everybody is just waiting for the hype to start so they can ride the waves and earn max profits.

It could also be that people are waiting for deep fall in price first before they would accumulate more bitcoin. Just like how the past histories or trend have shown that bitcoin hits a new ATH like a year after halving so is the case of it getting to lower price before the halving. Some even predicted that the last quarter of this years would experience the price low of about $20k less and some people are actually waiting for the right time.

But waiting for the price to go down before buying isn’t a wise move but rather using the DCA method to accumulate whenever you have the funds ready. This way you don’t get to wait for an opportunity that is not certain of happening.

Many speculate that the price will touch the 17k-20k area before the halving occurs. And this is fine, because the price could move there and we don't know what will happen, considering the wild movements of BTC, this makes sense too.

Buying DCA on the spot market is very effective for current and new traders or potential investors. So even if we buy at the current price and in a week or 2-3 months BTC's price drops it won't be a problem, because we will get the lowest average price too.

For me the predictability is present but what if we're wrong this time and what if we just experience stability in price and not some ATH?

This can be possible considering the events surrounding the price movement of late. I’m the past years the last month August and September are usually filled with red lines but this year’s we experienced something of a stable price with slight movement. So even if the market trend changes a bit after next halving I wouldn’t be too surprised, the only thing is I am hodling till my target gets reached

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoins-are-there/
Is the movement of BTC no longer like previous history in the months and years before the halving because Bitcoin has been mined and circulating at 19,513,706.25 or 92,922% of its total supply? So it tends to be stable, and able to make history differently this time? several other factors are also able to influence BTC price movements, for example Bitcoin ETF, War, Economic Crisis, Energy Crisis, Policy, Adoption.

[BlackHatCoiner]

CZ publicly admitting he can't predict the future is a key phrase for the crypto-community. The person who owns literally the most profitable crypto-exchange, with net worth estimated to be more than $10 billion does not know what will happen; let alone you.

It'll be my second halving, but I'll have to agree with his points. Basically, he says that everything's possible after the early, post-halving days. In May 2020, it took a couple of months to break $11k IIRC, but it was also Covid and everyone started looking into cryptos, so again, we don't know what's gonna happen this year.

[AmoreJaz]

CZ publicly admitting he can't predict the future is a key phrase for the crypto-community. The person who owns literally the most profitable crypto-exchange, with net worth estimated to be more than $10 billion does not know what will happen; let alone you.

It'll be my second halving, but I'll have to agree with his points. Basically, he says that everything's possible after the early, post-halving days. In May 2020, it took a couple of months to break $11k IIRC, but it was also Covid and everyone started looking into cryptos, so again, we don't know what's gonna happen this year.

no expert or no billionaire can predict the future. so yeah, let alone a regular crypto user. so do not boast to anyone that we know what will happen next. also, we don't know when it will hit the ATH or new ATH, or if ever it will hit such price level.
at least he's being conservative also with his views on this market. and such, do not mislead people given his influence over this market. he is just like any ordinary crypto user who can give a valuable advice in the upcoming big event for bitcoin.

[Ale88]

This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

You are absolutely right but at the same time I appreciate CZ's honesty because too many people with a lot of public exposure and big online following make pretty unrealistic statements just to hype people and push them to buy. That is bad for the whole community because newcomers will lose money for sure. CZ is far from being perfect but if more people were like him probably it would be better for everybody.

[SamReomo]

This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

You're right everyone who knows about Bitcoin and its price history will say the words similar to the ones that CZ said. We all have been chatting about halving event many times and most of us know that the BTC's price will reach it's ATH high after an year from the halving or a few months more than a year. I believe that October-December are the months in which we will see the next ATH if history repeats itself once again. Still, I think CZ also thinks similar to other Bitcoin holders and I'm pretty sure that he might be secretly browsing this forum on weekly basis if not daily.

[JoyMarsha]

I like how CZ makes an effort to bring up the subject of the halving season at the appropriate time so that people who are not aware of it might take note. Some individuals be wanting for a change in the price of bitcoin by the time the halving season comes around because they believed it will work its magic on the crypto market. The information provided by CZ will, at the very least, help newbies avoid getting discouraged when the price of bitcoin doesn't increase suddenly as they had anticipated during the halving season. Since the crypto market remains unpredictable.

[famososMuertos]

I think the most Bizarre thing from the point of view of what the character means for what we should essentially enact in this forum, Decentralization, the OP's character uses CEX as raw material to attract clients.

Come on! Cz's vision... it is a shame that so much power (crypto) is concentrated in a single person, so, is what should be reduced by half/ (halving).

If CZ are going to give an opinion on something that requires it, let it begin explain the difference between CEX and DEX. You cannot give free publicity to an individual who treasures centralism.

[Forever101]

Which ever way it happens, as a Bitcoin investor, we should be on the look out for this time. This analysis regarding Bitcoin halving in the past 3 halving is correct but no one can tell how it will be this time, so it is best to keep buying until the bull run begins. Bitcoin halving is closer than ever before, so all investors should get the right knowledge to avoid any form of regret over your actions

[panganib999]

I came across a feed today that shares the view of the Binance CEO on halving and I thought I should share it with you guys as I see it informative and no information is too small.



I can't agree more on this as part of what he states is happening now. The "chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope" and speculation are now littering the internet.

Insightfully, this also advises calm and a need not to miss out at the same time for at least a full year.

This isn't necessarily CZ giving his take on the bitcoin halving, this is literally what's been going on in the past halvings that we have. It's true that people wonder why bitcoin's not pumping yet after the halving, this is most apparent in the 2020 halving event when people literally went bonkers cause not only did the anxiety of halving a global pandemic crisis hit them in the face, they are also kind of banking on bitcoin for financial aid during times when the idea is a little off the table.

What I really like about this tho is the fact that the trend is happening yet again. People are becoming more excited and anxious about bitcoin and the halving event. It seems like we're yet again inbound for another repeat of the history (which in this case is good cause it means money for us lol)

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

I came across a feed today that shares the view of the Binance CEO on halving and I thought I should share it with you guys as I see it informative and no information is too small.

This is something a majority of us that have experience in the market knows, he isn't the first person to predict the market in this exact way, if you have gone through some halving cycle yourself, you'll be able to come up with this because that's how the market react always. Alot of new investors will be coming into the market because they won't want to miss Bitcoin halving thinking the market will react positively immediately the halving has happened but they'll be disappointed and this will cause a negative effect on the price of Bitcoin. It's sometimes that happened always and we're expecting similar outcome this halving cycle. Many traders will also be taken out of the market because of fear as the price of Bitcoin experience a correction which is normal after a sudden spike that'll happen due to halving fomo.

If CZ are going to give an opinion on something that requires it, let it begin explain the difference between CEX and DEX. You cannot give free publicity to an individual who treasures centralism.

He won't instead he'll rather promise them protection when his exchange isn't secure an his said proof of reverse hasn't been tested and verifiable that he has all the money he's claiming his exchange has as an insurance funds for their customers. Cz knows how to seize the moment to get more customers into his exchange. He won't speak on issues that are more concerning like we having self custody of our finance but it's about halving that hypes the average Joe he'll talk about, knowing news media will do the publicizing for him like this thread as an example. More publicity exposed his CEX to inexperienced newbies that'll use their exchange and probably keep their coins on their exchange and give Binance access to more funds to continue their monopoly of the industry.

[KingsDen]

This is not only peculiar to CZ. I mean anyone that has witnessed more than two halvings should be able to understand the process and timing of halving effects on bitcoin price. Apart from reading this alleged statement from CZ, I have read countless theories looking like this but we need to understand this few things.;

• CZ said he doesn't predict the future, which is like a disclaimer. He is telling you that his statement shouldn't serve as your investment advice. You need to DYOR
• Number two of what CZ said is already happening. Chatters have taken the lead and it will keep building up till halving and after halving and there will be no significant price increase. 

Well, my expectations of halving and bull run is cutting short. Anything can happen, so as we are expecting the bull we should also prepare for the worse.

[BigBos]

CZ is very right. I think new people have joined the crypto verse within the last 4 years, which literally means that large numbers of crypto ethusiast don't have halving experience. Halving news is gonna get more hotter as we drive closer to the very moment, which will put more pressure in the market, making most people want to buy more Bitcoin.

Only time will tell if he's right or wrong. What happened in the past is no guarantee of what will happen in the future. The same situation can produce different results because there are many different variables. What CZ said is generally what is expected, but this doesn't mean that it will definitely happen again. The actions of those who entered the market in recent years and have a few coins aren't very important. What is more important is what those who hold large amounts of coins and have the possibility of influencing the market will do.

It is true that in this case what happened in the past is not necessarily what will happen in the future but looking at the conditions actually when talking about this progress the possibility will still be the same especially from the few halvings that have occurred it has always been like that even though we don't know what will happen in the future at least by looking at history there is something good and worth waiting for.
On the other hand, what CZ said was indeed hopeful but in this case he also said things that had actually happened in several previous halvings which made this assumption even stronger because there was already previous data.

[GreatArkansas]

I can't agree more on this as part of what he states is happening now. The "chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope" and speculation are now littering the internet.
(.....)

It's like I can see these upcoming price actions of Bitcoin is more like "buy the news, sell the rumors".
For most of us, the basis is months before the Bitcoin block halves we will see the price of Bitcoin will start to pump but it doesn't mean the pump will create new all-time highs.

[Ale88]

Come on! Cz's vision... it is a shame that so much power (crypto) is concentrated in a single person

I don't think that fair distribution has even been one of bitcoin's main qualities: since the beginning there have been people with a huge quantity of bitcoins and today very few people can afford to buy a full bitcoin, and if you have many bitcoins you also have power. Maybe not the same exposure of CZ since he created the biggest exchange but if you are a whale you can try to manipulate the market.

[Isuru_]

Overall, Bitcoin halvings are a mixed bag. They can have positive and negative effects on the price of Bitcoin, and they can also make it harder or easier to mine Bitcoin. It's important to weigh the pros and cons carefully before making any investment decisions.

CZ's tweet is just his opinion, and there is no guarantee that Bitcoin prices will rise in the year after a halving. Investors should always do their own research before making any investment decisions.
DYOR

[KiaKia]

Ok now this is getting serious, it seems people are now focused on the next Bitcoin halving as the start of the next rally, I believe it's not going to happen then since many people are too concerned about this time, CZ only used the past history and that doesn't mean the same will happen in 2024, I believe there will be a delay.

When people focus their minds on the same thing it doesn't always go as they plan, the market could crash even further after the halving and that will be nice to see because I will always be ready to take advantage of the dump.

Do not follow what people are saying, have your own plans in place, when loads of people go the left way you should go the right, be prepare for any possible future dumps, because it can be the biggest opportunity, way better than 15k we all called the bottom.

[Ayers]

Either this is coming from CZ or not, halving is going to take place next year and obviously almost all the three items listed above are coming to pass, though am also surprised that cz is talking like this for the first time not considering his own interests first being an exchange or introducing something that could help distract people to invest on his Binance coin, alot of people have been giving their own side view also concerning halving and if this is all coming from CZ, then i think he's less considerate about himself this time.

If you follow all his tweets regularly, you will realize that he doesn't just talk about Binance, BNB, BSC...or things related to his company all the time. He also frequently tweets about what's going on in the crypto industry and has nothing to do with his business. I know many people don't like him because he is one of the owners of the largest centralized exchange in the market, or he also contributes to market manipulation...But at least he is not as bad as SBF or a series of other CEOs who always make silly predictions about bitcoin prices.

[GbitG]

CZ publicly admitting he can't predict the future is a key phrase for the crypto-community. The person who owns literally the most profitable crypto-exchange, with net worth estimated to be more than $10 billion does not know what will happen; let alone you.

This is an argument for CZ being honest because CZ himself admitted that the price of bitcoin cannot be predicted. CZ said that the future cannot be predicted by looking at history because the base of cryptocurrency is based on volatility. So CZ said that looking at the previous history, Bitcoin cannot be predicted after Bitcoin halving or that Bitcoin will cross $100,000 after halving. Despite being such a big influencer and experienced, CZ can't predict what will happen after the halving, so the rest of the people are nothing compared to that.

CZ should appreciate this: despite being famous in public, a prominent following influencer, and having a lot of public exposure, he is saying that I don't know what will happen after halving. And some people with similar power make worthless statements to create hype among people in order to attract or push people to buy. It is very bad and unfair that people trust you, and you use them for your own interests to make money. How many people are losing money with the performance of such an activity? So it is not right for anyone to do such awful activities.

So it is important to say that CZ's halving view is a very accurate and effective method, and no one can tell what will actually happen after Bitcoin halving from a price perspective. It is just an estimate based on speculation; everyone has their own.

[The Cryptovator]

I saw this tweet a few days back. And I agree with him. Don't dream of becoming quick rich for upcoming halving. If history repeats itself, we might see ATH again after the halving. So it's not for halving, actually; it would happen for various reasons. No one can predict the future, and as a responsible person, CZ wouldn't just pump Bitcoin for the upcoming halving. But we have to learn from the past so we may realise how it's going to happen.

[icalical]

CZ got his points, but that's not unique, it's based on the history of how market reacts to halving, and many people said the same. Tho with the current economic condition and people have more experience on the effect of halving and how Bitcoin market react to it, I doubt people will are still hoping that Bitcoin will double the price immediately after halving, most of Bitcoin speculators should already learn that Bitcoin halving effect on the market is not instant. And the thus could also make the time frame when Bitcoin will reach new ATH after the halving, probably longer than just a year.

[philipma1957]

I came across a feed today that shares the view of the Binance CEO on halving and I thought I should share it with you guys as I see it informative and no information is too small.



I can't agree more on this as part of what he states is happening now. The "chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope" and speculation are now littering the internet.

Insightfully, this also advises calm and a need not to miss out at the same time for at least a full year.

He left out that we had a miner relief rally in 2015-2016 pre ½ ing we got over 700 usd which was close to a 70% of all time high in 2013. If we do that this time you could get between 40-50k pre ½ ing.

I will continue to argue that is a norm that will-be established again this ½ ing.

[Twinkledoe]

CZ got his points, but that's not unique, it's based on the history of how market reacts to halving, and many people said the same. Tho with the current economic condition and people have more experience on the effect of halving and how Bitcoin market react to it, I doubt people will are still hoping that Bitcoin will double the price immediately after halving, most of Bitcoin speculators should already learn that Bitcoin halving effect on the market is not instant. And the thus could also make the time frame when Bitcoin will reach new ATH after the halving, probably longer than just a year.

He is also playing safe with his pieces of advice to people. Because he is one of the popular personalities to whom people looked up to in this market, he's being conservative with his views. But those simple statements are actually valuable if you internalize its importance when it comes to your decisions with what you will do with your porftolio.

[BitDane]

CZ's view is just a common knowledge but a very conservative one.  It is like CZ playing it safe by saying the history does not predict the future, but we all know in Bitcoin history, the cycle keeps repeating itself (reason why it is called a cycle  )  I agree to all things CZ stated it is that I felt that the last one is somehow missing something.  Probably that is stated to not give hope to people that can backfire to him but I don't find any wrong by stating the history repeat itself which is supported by one of his (CZ) statement.

Anyway, I also get that CZ wants people to observe calmly.  Don't FOMO or get affected by FUD.

[bhadz]

He's right that people are forgetting their memories of how the bull run comes and it doesn't come in an instant when the halving is just done. It may take a year or several months before it activates and that's why don't hurry when the halving is around and you need to be more patient than the others. We've seen it for a couple of times on how the halving comes and that should give you the hope to remain steadfast and don't let the bad news get you or else you'll miss it when it comes. Usually when it's just recently done, he's right about mix feelings, emotions are everywhere.

[Mpamaegbu]

Everything CZ said there was apt. I like his foresight and ingenuity in this industry. Though his last sentence about history not being able to predict the future is the one I don't agree to. I'm of the opinion that the  Bitcoin circle of past events leading to halving or after it will repeat itself. I've witnessed two post-Bitcoin halving events out of the three and both I witnessed played out the same way. Prediction is speculation, and that's what gives us a glimpse of the furure. We speculate of things from what we assume we know of them from past data and that's what we're doing with Bitcoin to guage what the incoming halving will be. That's us trying to determine what happens in future.

[Z-tight]

and they can also make it harder or easier to mine Bitcoin.

BTC halving doesn't affect mining in the sense of making it easier or more difficult to mine, though BTC mining can affect mining profitablility as block reward is halved. As for mining being either harder or easier, that depends on BTC mining difficulty adjustment, and it happens automatically after every 2,016 mined blocks, this is to ensure that blocks are found ~ 10 minutes on average.

[arabspaceship123]

Insightfully, this also advises calm and a need not to miss out at the same time for at least a full year.

Here's another halving thread this time it's CZ talking about his insights. Investing at halving during isn't risk free so be careful we've shouldn't invest unless we're able to absorb losses.

Whatever he described is pretty much what happened in the past, but I think it will be similar — probably with just a quite-delayed step #3; simply because bitcoin holders are betting too much on the #3 part that I think it will be decently delayed.

Isn't it possible it's going to work out different if there's a selling movement. I don't know what's going to happen in step #3 but if record prices happen after delays it'll be a new experience.

[DapanasFruit]

I think the same pattern is now emerging for Bitcoin halving which is scheduled in 2024. As long as we are still dealing with humans and not AI-made personalities, then we have to assume we are creatures of habits. In other words, we are just repeating history. As what I heard somewhere, there can be some storms before the rainbow can appear. There can be some chaotic confusion before the roller-coaster will stop for some moments. Now, am wondering: How we can make some profits out of this pattern?

[DabsPoorVersion]

I think the same pattern is now emerging for Bitcoin halving which is scheduled in 2024. As long as we are still dealing with humans and not AI-made personalities, then we have to assume we are creatures of habits. In other words, we are just repeating history. As what I heard somewhere, there can be some storms before the rainbow can appear. There can be some chaotic confusion before the roller-coaster will stop for some moments.

History indeed repeats itself. CZ actually does have a point; many have witnessed the halving last 2017 and we can all say that the same cycle does happen on the previous halving. But then again, this is not solid proof that the same thing will happen again for this coming halving. We may expect more news or hype that will try to manipulate the price of Bitcoin, as the number of people who know about it grows larger than before.

Now, am wondering: How we can make some profits out of this pattern?

What you can do is allocate Bitcoin while its price is still around $20k. Do DCA until next year or until you see the effect of halving. We may not guarantee the exact date, but we should expect the unexpected.

[arabspaceship123]

Humans are creatures of habit so it's possible to expect the same trends but there's too many ppl buying-selling bitcoin now. I mean compared to the last halving more ppl trade so previous patterns aren't the best indicator of what's going to happen next time.

I think the same pattern is now emerging for Bitcoin halving which is scheduled in 2024. As long as we are still dealing with humans and not AI-made personalities, then we have to assume we are creatures of habits. In other words, we are just repeating history. As what I heard somewhere, there can be some storms before the rainbow can appear. There can be some chaotic confusion before the roller-coaster will stop for some moments. Now, am wondering: How we can make some profits out of this pattern?

[Minecache]

CZ got his points, but that's not unique, it's based on the history of how market reacts to halving, and many people said the same. Tho with the current economic condition and people have more experience on the effect of halving and how Bitcoin market react to it, I doubt people will are still hoping that Bitcoin will double the price immediately after halving, most of Bitcoin speculators should already learn that Bitcoin halving effect on the market is not instant. And the thus could also make the time frame when Bitcoin will reach new ATH after the halving, probably longer than just a year.

Only old investors know that the bull season will not happen immediately when the halving happens, but from what I see from newbies, they think the bull season will come immediately when the halving occurs. Many people are even confident that bitcoin will not decrease anymore because the closer the halving gets, the more people will buy bitcoin. From there, the price of bitcoin will slowly increase without any significant price drops. If based on history, newbies have a wrong view of the bull season, but there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself, so things cannot be easily predicted.

[Latviand]

I'm not going to lie but what CZ said is just a common sense, nothing profound to get out of it, just a keen observation of what to do when you feel unsure of the market movement at best. But I guess given that he's a prominent cryptocurrency figure it's going to be generating some social ease on people that's a bit worried about the market so in the end, I feel like me hating on what he's saying would be a nonsense thing to do, it's not like he's promoting anything besides the halving countdown clock on Binance.

[JunaidAzizi]

At the beginning of the post, he said that I am not predicting the future of Bitcoin, it is clear from it that the above points are just the information he take from history and everyone who is receptive to Bitcoin will know this. The points he shared are just about awareness and information. The first point shows that Bitcoin halving will occur in 2024 and after halving many peoples are coming to make you fool so don't be trapped the next two points is just clarification that many people believe that after halving bull will start but actually the bull will start after one year of the halving means 2025 will  the next  bull run which will go up to the (ATH)

[EarnOnVictor]

This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

I view this as a too-know coming from you, even if billions know a thing, once it's coming from a particular person, what do they call it? Your view or general?

Besides, this is regardless of people's knowledge, a piece coming from him directly could influence some people who didn't want to give it a shot initially or are confused with tons of cabbage online. That makes it an individuality affair which is more powerful and influencing than each other.

You might want to further read from this user amongst others who understand the situation better:

I have the same experience as CZ had. It maybe a common knowledge for those people who are in crypto space for long but for newbies it's not. Maybe the goal why CZ posted this is because he want to educate newbies or those who didn't know about this info. This can motivate them into investing into bitcoin as early as now and not expect a sudden jump in price after the halving. It's a good information that newbies should learn.

[thecodebear]

Whatever he described is pretty much what happened in the past, but I think it will be similar — probably with just a quite-delayed step #3; simply because bitcoin holders are betting too much on the #3 part that I think it will be decently delayed.

It'll be interesting. I think there are A LOT of people who now have a stubbornly ingrained negative view towards Bitcoin and Crypto, and I think that dampens how many new multitudes of first timers will be flooding into Bitcoin in FOMO as compared to past cycles. Like it is literally at the point where if you simply tell someone you own Bitcoin lots of people will assume you are some sort of scammer or toxic "crypto bro". Token scams and meme coin shills and NFT shills of the last cycle have given the whole space a bad reputation with a lot of people. That plus assuming the US is still an antagonistic regulatory environment to the space in 2024/25 I think will also blunt the sort of next wave of corporations venturing into Bitcoin holding that we saw start in 2020/2021 as well as Americans in general.

No doubt there will be a bull market, but I think it could be dulled due to these things. I feel like we need to go through another cycle / another few years before people stop hating on the space so much. Like if this is a smaller bull run, and therefore also a much less drastic crash than normal afterwards, and if the regulatory environment in the US clears out over the next few years (mostly if we get an SEC chair that isn't biased against Bitcoin and Congress makes sensible rules for the space to both protect it and guide it), I think Bitcoin could have a much stronger end of the decade than middle of the decade.




One good thing is it seems like the whole smart contract world is fading (and I think its not just because we're at that part of the market cycle). NFT pictures, random thousands of crypto apps, meme tokens, all the various layer 1 smart contract chains...kinda feels like they are all dying. Even Musk trying to shill Dogecoin doesn't do anything more than give it a small temporary boost before it settles back down at its 6 cents. People are just tired of the endless fluff in the market. I'm sure some old and new ones will get hyped again this cycle, but I think that fact that literally ALL the big hyped up next gen super awesome L1 smart contract platforms from last cycle petered out and are essentially dead has kinda started to convince the market that Bitcoin and to a much lesser extent Ethereum are the only legit things to put money into and to trust to have future viability. Like, who cares about Polkadot, Cardano, Luna, Avalanche, Solana, and so on at this point?? Not many people and I think it'll be real hard to convince people to get back into them or newer ones this next cycle. I don't expect any of those hyped up chains from last cycle to hit their 2021 highs in this upcoming cycle, so as with everything else other than Ethereum (so far) they will be going toward zero against Bitcoin long term.

I feel like we are gonna start to see things shift back to a Bitcoin focus over the next decade as people get more and more tired of all the cr*p in the altcoin world and people gradually get at least a little bit educated on Bitcoin, and as Bitcoin gets integrated into classic finance systems like with ETFs eventually, btc offered on Wall St exchanges, through banks, btc payments slowly starts gaining more acceptance, etc. I think the world is starting to realize nobody wants a thousand apps with a thousand different tokens and that whole idea was completely bonkers in the first place. The tokenization of crypto apps was a race to the bottom. What makes sense is apps using a single universal currency, not a thousand different cheap weak ones.

[kryptqnick]

CZ's post is very moderate and balanced, as he's merely talking about his point of view and acknowledges that it doesn't mean that there's a causal relation there or that history predicts the future.
I certainly agree with the first two points about discussions and about the price not doubling overnight, but #3 is pretty easy to check, so let's check. However, I must say that I initially thought he means that the price reaches an ATH in a year (so a year must pass), but not I think he means that it happens within a year several times.

Bitcoin halving of 2016 happened in July. Within a year from then, Bitcoin did reach new highs of $1800, $2400 and $3k, so I support it's technically true, but what it's missing is the rapid bull marker of September-December of 2017, in which Bitcoin reached almost $20k and which is considered the ATH of that time period.
Let's also have a look at halving of 2020, which was in May. Within a year, there were again multiple ATHs, such as almost $40k in January 2021, almost $58k in February 2021, and $63.5k in April 2021. So, again, it's true, but then in November 2021, the price reached over $67k, which isn't within this time frame.

So I guess he's correct, even though this view does not point to when the market reaches the top.

[Lucius]

This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

You hit the point, and there is really nothing more to say, at least not for those who are not big fans of the great crypto messiah who is trying (obviously successfully) to sell them general knowledge as something of his own. This is the same man who claims that 99% of people involved in "crypto" will lose their digital assets because they store them in non-custodial wallets.

The man literally claims that 99% of these people are stupid, and I think it's stupid to trust such a man.

‘99% of People' Will Lose Crypto Storing in Self-Custody: Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao

[OcTradism]

You hit the point, and there is really nothing more to say, at least not for those who are not big fans of the great crypto messiah who is trying (obviously successfully) to sell them general knowledge as something of his own. This is the same man who claims that 99% of people involved in "crypto" will lose their digital assets because they store them in non-custodial wallets.

The man literally claims that 99% of these people are stupid, and I think it's stupid to trust such a man.

There are free resources to learn about Bitcoin, Bitcoin halvings. People are too lazy and did not do own research, did not learn anything. When an influencer makes a tweet, they believe that knowledge is right and automatically believe it.

Knowledge sharing must be verified too because not all sharing are correct.

Controlled supply.
Compare bull markets.

[Wind_FURY]

This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

You hit the point, and there is really nothing more to say, at least not for those who are not big fans of the great crypto messiah who is trying (obviously successfully) to sell them general knowledge as something of his own. This is the same man who claims that 99% of people involved in "crypto" will lose their digital assets because they store them in non-custodial wallets.

The man literally claims that 99% of these people are stupid, and I think it's stupid to trust such a man.

‘99% of People' Will Lose Crypto Storing in Self-Custody: Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao

Plus just because there's a "halving", which limits the supply side, it doesn't truly mean that it will increase the demand side. Would Bitcoin really surge in a recession environment simply because the inflation per block was cut in half?

We should also take the money printer into consideration.

As observed in this chart, the movement of Bitcoin went with the positive year on year growth of the global money supply, as well as the negative contraction year on year.



Although the halving makes Bitcoin more scarce, and therefore "more precious", the demand side is also as important.

Shower thought, did Satoshi put the expansion and the contraction of the global money supply into consideration when he made a design-decision of Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle?

 

[Woodie]

CZ just summed up(echoed) what actually happens as we approach the halving and post-reaction of the markets after the halving itself.

• 1st we see a slight bump of price as we get nearer to the actual halving date
• 2ndly markets don't go up instantly to match up the hype, maybe because others sell immediately after seeing no real rise from the halving
• 3rdly when the dust settles, markets now show their true direction and price is bullish at this time
• Lastly a hard fall follows after a lot of users sell to get their profits and the cycle is complete (no one talks about this part)

I think it's safe to say we know the drill that comes with Bitcoin halving.

[freedomgo]

These are just based on Bitcoin's historical price movements before and after halving. We don't need to change anything here. Since the halving is getting closer, we should be gearing up and not miss out on the action.

CZ is one of the most successful figures in the crypto world, owning one of the biggest, if not the biggest, exchanges. He has a solid reputation for not hyping things like Elon Musk does. He's just laying out the facts, backed by figures and events from the past. So, it would be crazy to go against the trend; that would put us on the losing side as investors.

The more people enjoy the bullish sentiment, the sooner a bull run is likely to come. That's what we all want, right?

[BenCodie]

This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

CZ has a habit if making obvious observations on twitter, as he knows his audience will relate to it and then respect him more. CZs respect is inflated and this is actually one of the reasons why...he is a smart marketer.

The amount of damage this guy has done to the market (but also a lot of good) is what should be in focus, but no one wants to do that research, and even less people want to care about the research if it were to be released

Sigh...the meme generation - low attention, no care of anything that takes more than  5 seconds to understand.

[Lucius]

Plus just because there's a "halving", which limits the supply side, it doesn't truly mean that it will increase the demand side. Would Bitcoin really surge in a recession environment simply because the inflation per block was cut in half?
We should also take the money printer into consideration.
As observed in this chart, the movement of Bitcoin went with the positive year on year growth of the global money supply, as well as the negative contraction year on year.

Although the halving makes Bitcoin more scarce, and therefore "more precious", the demand side is also as important.

It is a completely logical question, but at the moment no one can answer that question because no one can know what the future brings us. There are two options, the first of which includes that history will repeat itself no matter what and that we will have another big bull run, and the second is that we will break the tradition and that the four-year cycle will become a thing of the past.

I personally believe that the bull run will happen as it was the case in the past, we just need to remember that the last bull run produced an ATH that only exceeded the last ATH by 3.5 times, and it is possible that the next one will be smaller than that. Of course, I'm saying all this without taking into account the possible approval of the spot ETF in the US, whether it happens at the beginning of 2024 or 2025 is actually not too important.

[Rikafip]

There are two options, the first of which includes that history will repeat itself no matter what and that we will have another big bull run, and the second is that we will break the tradition and that the four-year cycle will become a thing of the past.

Since we already broke one tradition (bitcoin going below the all time high in the previous bull run), I think that we should prepare ourselves fot the possibility of delayed bull run.

I personally believe that the bull run will happen as it was the case in the past, we just need to remember that the last bull run produced an ATH that only exceeded the last ATH by 3.5 times, and it is possible that the next one will be smaller than that.

Consdieting the current situation int the world, I would be very surprised if bitcoin performs at the similar level of the previous bull run. After all, its only natural that ROI keeps getting smaller as the bitcoin price keeps going up. I would personally be more than happy with let's say 2x from the previous ATH.

Of course, I'm saying all this without taking into account the possible approval of the spot ETF in the US, whether it happens at the beginning of 2024 or 2025 is actually not too important.

You expect it to have such a big impact on bitcoin price?

[OgNasty]

He definitely speaks from experience and I think those of us that have been around for a few cycles are expecting the same thing. There’s a bit of hesitation in wondering if the market can really keep doing the exact same thing every four years, but until it doesn’t (with no FTX like evil actors) then I’ll be a believer and investor.

[Lucius]

Of course, I'm saying all this without taking into account the possible approval of the spot ETF in the US, whether it happens at the beginning of 2024 or 2025 is actually not too important.

You expect it to have such a big impact on bitcoin price?

Did you see what the fake news about the SEC approving the BTC ETF to BlackRock did? I was quite skeptical about the price effect such an ETF would have because I thought all these investors could buy BTC without it, but when you look at all these companies involved in it, we are talking about $15+ trillion under management just from BlackRock and Fidelity and it is logical to assume that part of these funds will be directed towards Bitcoin.

In addition, the effect on the price is hidden in the fact that these funds have to buy actual BTC in order to be able to sell shares in these funds, which means that the demand will surely increase. In the event that the effects of the halving coincide with the approval of the SEC (and they will not be able to say no indefinitely), the perfect situation for a big bull run would be created.

Consdieting the current situation int the world, I would be very surprised if bitcoin performs at the similar level of the previous bull run. After all, its only natural that ROI keeps getting smaller as the bitcoin price keeps going up. I would personally be more than happy with let's say 2x from the previous ATH.

I would also be quite happy with some $150k as the next ATH, especially if we consider that it is more than x5 of the current price which should definitely be taken into account.

[Rikafip]

Did you see what the fake news about the SEC approving the BTC ETF to BlackRock did?

Yeah I saw the pump and dump, but next time when it happens I don't think that its going to be that big (at least not in the short term) as price didn't come back to the one before that fake news meaning people are really expecting it.

I was quite skeptical about the price effect such an ETF would have because I thought all these investors could buy BTC without it, but when you look at all these companies involved in it, we are talking about $15+ trillion under management just from BlackRock and Fidelity and it is logical to assume that part of these funds will be directed towards Bitcoin.

That's true. I mean, I don't wanna sound pesimistic, but I just don't wanna hype myself and then be disappointed when it happens and that doesn't affect the price as much as I hoped it will.

I would also be quite happy with some $150k as the next ATH, especially if we consider that it is more than x5 of the current price which should definitely be taken into account.

I am consistently underestimating future BTC price so I hope that I am wrong/too cautious this time as well and we see even bigger pump. But even if that doesn't happen, $150k would be quite nice.

[serveria.com]

I am consistently underestimating future BTC price so I hope that I am wrong/too cautious this time as well and we see even bigger pump. But even if that doesn't happen, $150k would be quite nice.

With me it's the other way round: I constantly overestimate future BTC prices. But Bitcoin can't go parabolic all the time. It has to slow down at some point. Just think - if BTC = 1.000.0000 it just can't do another x20 and jump directly to 20.000.000 per coin in a single title. So I think x2 to x3 can be considered great performance for the next cycle.

[Sophokles]

He is experienced in this field and we should not take his statement lightly. There are many things that this time won't be like the previous one. BTC won't make an all time high which it did in every cycle after halving. Bitcoin gains popularity faster than every other top entity in the market so it makes many people nervous to think this will last forever. I totally agree with what CZ said and expect a similar scenario.

[DaNNy001]

He definitely speaks from experience and I think those of us that have been around for a few cycles are expecting the same thing. There’s a bit of hesitation in wondering if the market can really keep doing the exact same thing every four years, but until it doesn’t (with no FTX like evil actors) then I’ll be a believer and investor.

I think same expectations lie with those of us that have been actually reading and also currently holding a significant amount of Bitcoin. Even if you have not around all this while I think you can also be on same page as others concerning the whole Bitcoin halving discussion and the effects of the bull showing up after the halving. Currently now in the crypto both newbies , amateur and also veteran Bitcoin enthusiast are all curios on the possible faith of Bitcoin come the time of the halving and also it's passing.

[icalical]

CZ got his points, but that's not unique, it's based on the history of how market reacts to halving, and many people said the same. Tho with the current economic condition and people have more experience on the effect of halving and how Bitcoin market react to it, I doubt people will are still hoping that Bitcoin will double the price immediately after halving, most of Bitcoin speculators should already learn that Bitcoin halving effect on the market is not instant. And the thus could also make the time frame when Bitcoin will reach new ATH after the halving, probably longer than just a year.

He is also playing safe with his pieces of advice to people. Because he is one of the popular personalities to whom people looked up to in this market, he's being conservative with his views. But those simple statements are actually valuable if you internalize its importance when it comes to your decisions with what you will do with your porftolio.

Yes sure, I understand that part why he was playing safe, he is the founder of Binance, so every statements he makes will affect people views on Binance. Though I would expect something more original and valuable opinion from someone at his calibre, and for if he doesn't actually have a more valuable opinion, he doesn't need to write such generic and redundant opinion.

[Dunamisx]

He definitely speaks from experience and I think those of us that have been around for a few cycles are expecting the same thing. There’s a bit of hesitation in wondering if the market can really keep doing the exact same thing every four years, but until it doesn’t (with no FTX like evil actors) then I’ll be a believer and investor.

I think same expectations lie with those of us that have been actually reading and also currently holding a significant amount of Bitcoin. Even if you have not around all this while I think you can also be on same page as others concerning the whole Bitcoin halving discussion and the effects of the bull showing up after the halving. Currently now in the crypto both newbies , amateur and also veteran Bitcoin enthusiast are all curios on the possible faith of Bitcoin come the time of the halving and also it's passing.

Once we are approaching the time of halving like this, everyone seems to be more skeptical about what may be the results in this we all are into, let's forget about what CZ may say or not and face the reality of what we know concerning this, since we are all into it altogether, for the fact that halving is near the corner doesn't mean some will still not loose, it may only differs from each other because as some are making profits others may be loosing, they are the categories that fall under influencers like CZ.

[arabspaceship123]

I'd be happy if it's going to exceed x5 of the current bitcoin price. I'm not expecting it to go in that route but if it happens we'll say it's analysis was perfection. What's going to happen if halving won't bring pumps. If nervous investors sell after halving it's going to send the market down so I'm not optimistic.

I would also be quite happy with some $150k as the next ATH, especially if we consider that it is more than x5 of the current price which should definitely be taken into account.

[bayu7adi]

I totally agree with what CZ said and expect a similar scenario.

I see it as a double-edged sword, where, if the majority's expectations post-halving go unmet or their perception turns negative, we may witness the opposite effect – a massive sell-off of BTC. The psychology of money-seeking individuals is rooted in their reluctance to be caught at a high BTC price, thus giving rise to extraordinary fear.

However, should the majority of the Bitcoin community's expectations be met, or even exceeded, the market could experience a positive sentiment that propels BTC's price to a new all-time high.

So, the certainty of a new ATH after the halving remains uncertain. The current public expectations are significant, and what is most feared is if the market cannot meet these expectations, leading to a price dump that leaves the BTC market in turmoil.

[goldkingcoiner]

Why do we need CZ's view on the halving? Sure, he has his exchange, but he is a trading software dev. Not a Bitcoin expert.

Nobody should be placing such large amounts of trust in the words of the rich and famous. The words of an expert in Bitcoin would weigh much more than that of an expert in developing trading software. Honestly, if you ask me, DeFI is a better alternative- if you absolutely need to daytrade. Slightly more expensive, sure. But no KYC.

And all you have to do for that is ask someone on Bitcointalk.org.

Lotta tech and finance experts here who can explain the halving and its effects in much brighter detail.

[ancafe]

I can't agree more on this as part of what he states is happening now. The "chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope" and speculation are now littering the internet.

Insightfully, this also advises calm and a need not to miss out at the same time for at least a full year.

This is almost the same as the last halving and what it conveys may be slightly similar despite the difference in the month or date of the halving. This is also a big picture regarding the previous halving and of course CZ has been observing it for a long time because he is also one of the exchange owners who must understand the bitcoin side much better than us. CZ also has an advantage if speak something about bitcoin has a truth value above 80% because it will encourage new people who enter the exchange to be more motivated.

If this is true, it is CZ's analysis, perhaps he is trying to talk from the perspective of his experience as happened during the previous halving. Of course there is a positive value when an exchange owner understands the journey of bitcoin as one of the best because how can anyone believe in him if he is a nobody in the industry.

[Trawda]

CZ is an experienced market guy with a great eye so I agree with his point of view on what happens before and after halving.
As he said, people have a small memory and forget the past quickly and repeat the same mistakes every time.

[Iranus]

I totally agree with what CZ said and expect a similar scenario.

I see it as a double-edged sword, where, if the majority's expectations post-halving go unmet or their perception turns negative, we may witness the opposite effect – a massive sell-off of BTC. The psychology of money-seeking individuals is rooted in their reluctance to be caught at a high BTC price, thus giving rise to extraordinary fear.

However, should the majority of the Bitcoin community's expectations be met, or even exceeded, the market could experience a positive sentiment that propels BTC's price to a new all-time high.

So, the certainty of a new ATH after the halving remains uncertain. The current public expectations are significant, and what is most feared is if the market cannot meet these expectations, leading to a price dump that leaves the BTC market in turmoil.

I don't see anything to worry about if the price doesn't increase after the halving. All financial markets are no different than battlefields, so you shouldn't expect bitcoin to be any easier than other markets. In any financial market, there will only be a few winners and profits, the rest will lose money. Therefore, it is important in investing that we need to have a strategy and plan for every situation, do not be too subjective or believe that everything will always repeat or happen as we expect. I would not be surprised or disappointed if the bear season lasts longer or the market becomes more turmoil before the bull season actually takes place.

[LogitechMouse]

Why do we need CZ's view on the halving? Sure, he has his exchange, but he is a trading software dev. Not a Bitcoin expert.

Freedom of speech? We are in in the internet world LOL. Anybody can say whatever they want. Did you just used the internet yesterday? Nobody needs CZ's view on the halving, but he has the freedom to share it online. It's up to us people if we follow it or not. We don't need to be a Bitcoin expert in order for us to share whatever we wanted to.

Nobody should be placing such large amounts of trust in the words of the rich and famous. The words of an expert in Bitcoin would weigh much more than that of an expert in developing trading software. Honestly, if you ask me, DeFI is a better alternative- if you absolutely need to daytrade. Slightly more expensive, sure. But no KYC.

And all you have to do for that is ask someone on Bitcointalk.org.

Lotta tech and finance experts here who can explain the halving and its effects in much brighter detail.

The ones who might put trust in his words are those newbies out there who has no idea what they're going to do thus, they will just follow what a famous person is saying, or those die-hard fans of CZ who treat him like a God where they will follow what he's saying. I'm neither of the two.

Now you're sharing words of wisdom by promoting DeFi. Are you a DeFi expert, eh? Don't get me wrong though, but I will not follow what CZ is saying, and at the same time yours.

[Lucius]

Yeah I saw the pump and dump, but next time when it happens I don't think that its going to be that big (at least not in the short term) as price didn't come back to the one before that fake news meaning people are really expecting it.

It seems to me that such news could have a rather large impact on the price of BTC, not only because rich investors will be able to invest in BTC with one click of the mouse, but also because companies like BlackRock are positioned globally and enjoy great trust from their clients. If that company thinks that BTC is good for investing, some of their clients will certainly accept it.

Now the only question is how ordinary people perceive such a signal because they may not understand the difference between futures and spot BTC ETF.

That's true. I mean, I don't wanna sound pesimistic, but I just don't wanna hype myself and then be disappointed when it happens and that doesn't affect the price as much as I hoped it will.

Honestly, I'm already used to the fact that anything can happen, so I won't be disappointed if something doesn't happen exactly the way we're speculating today, but it's better to think positively than negatively. In addition, Bitcoin has already proven itself so many times during its short existence, and it is realistic to expect that it will afford us many more pleasant surprises in the future.

[tbct_mt2]

It seems to me that such news could have a rather large impact on the price of BTC, not only because rich investors will be able to invest in BTC with one click of the mouse, but also because companies like BlackRock are positioned globally and enjoy great trust from their clients. If that company thinks that BTC is good for investing, some of their clients will certainly accept it.

Now the only question is how ordinary people perceive such a signal because they may not understand the difference between futures and spot BTC ETF.

They can make one click to buy and also can make one click to sell. Market will have many roller coaster experience with many news from companies like Black Rock. Not completely similar but they can have emotional actions like people were FOMO to buy or panic to sell with Tesla news in last bull run two years ago. Effects from Black Rock can be bigger than Tesla because they are investment companies, not like Tesla that is amateur in this field.

Honestly, I'm already used to the fact that anything can happen, so I won't be disappointed if something doesn't happen exactly the way we're speculating today, but it's better to think positively than negatively. In addition, Bitcoin has already proven itself so many times during its short existence, and it is realistic to expect that it will afford us many more pleasant surprises in the future.

Speculations don't need to be exactly correct. Only newbies believe their speculations will actually happen and make them rich. I agree with you that with more experience, Bitcoin investors will be more realistic and they will not try to find all time highs or bottoms. DCA for accumulation as well as for profit taking.

A good plan for investing and taking profit.
(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan.

[cheezcarls]

In my own opinion about the next Bitcoin halving, I do not think we could experience some new ATHs again like what we have experienced after the 2020 halving. Maybe it can pump a bit but that’s not going to be that much anymore, but correct me if I am wrong later on.

It took like a few months before it broke the then-ATH of Bitcoin and soared up to $30k. Then Elon Musk enters the game and the BTC pump went crazy and wild due to his big influence as well as the rise of P2Es and memecoins too.

I am still holding BTCs for now so it would be interesting for us to see when the halving day comes and after that.

[doomloop]

I posted this on another thread, but it seems more appropriate here.
It seems to be pretty neutral at the moment. But everyone seems to  think that the halving next year will trigger a massive bull rally, and this confuses me.
If everyone already knows about the halving, the wouldn't it be baked in? I seem to be the only one that thinks it ain't gonna make a difference in the price

It's not about what everyone thinks, it's about what they will do when the halving is near or has already happened because it's mostly the actions that affect the market and not the thoughts of people, the thoughts only provoke actions which in return change the dynamics of the market. As soon as people start buying more and selling less, the market will start going up because the demand will keep increasing while the supply will stay limited due to a smaller number of sellers than buyers.

That's why, what you are thinking isn't right, the fact that everyone knows about halving will make the changes more clear and effective, the more people come to know about it, we will have more curiosity and more hope and we all know that when there is hope, people tend to have high expectations and for their expectations, they put in some money as well.

[Ucy]

Well, things would be different this time around. The last halving was quite different because what would have caused a drastic increase was ignorantly withheld.
The price of Bitcoin could be drastically increased shortly after the next year halving, if necessary. There is an overwhelming need for the increase, especially to avoid losing too many miners due to mining becoming unprofitable for them. They help secure Bitcoin even though we could still do without alot of them if the network is well decentralized.
I think we could just allow the low supply to determine the price next year, couple with deliberately creating high demand for bitcoins via our good contributions within the halving period.

[CoinFoxs]

CZ shared his thoughts on bitcoin halving which is expected to happen in april 2023, the halving is a significant event for the cryptocurrency market. He said after halving bitcoin price will start growing and traders will get good profit as bitcoin reaches again it’s all time high price!

[gunhell16]

I think, in my opinion, bitcoin is also expecting a high ATH in the upcoming Halving, but this expectation means that before it is achieved, we will also have to face anxiety, hype, and hope. So if, for example, Bitcoin reaches 60,000 dollars during the halving period, it is possible to be x 2 for a total of 120k$.

This is seen as his prediction explanation for the upcoming halving, although he did not mention a certain amount of price. It seems like this is what he wants to emphasize, but I'm not sure.

[dezoel]

CZ is very right. I think new people have joined the crypto verse within the last 4 years, which literally means that large numbers of crypto ethusiast don't have halving experience. Halving news is gonna get more hotter as we drive closer to the very moment, which will put more pressure in the market, making most people want to buy more Bitcoin.

I think it doesn't matter if they have an experience about it or not. As long as they can follow the simple principles of investing which is to buy low and sell high, they are good to go already. They can also read about the history of crypto. That way they are aware of what have occurred in the past. So, how's that? I think it's true that halving can cause a positive impact in the cryptos, and that is why we notice that each halving, a lot of people are always excited about it.

This is a good thing because it gives the price a good head start before the main even comes which will lead for a much bigger bump. People should buy now. I wouldn't want to wait to a point where the pressure is already high.

[arabspaceship123]

If it's from CZ's Twitter he said history doesn't predict the future. Halving isn't a time that's going to make good profits it's a road full of risks. CZ's saying you shouldn't take it for granted you're going to see multiple ATH but that's what we should've learned already.

CZ shared his thoughts on bitcoin halving which is expected to happen in april 2023, the halving is a significant event for the cryptocurrency market. He said after halving bitcoin price will start growing and traders will get good profit as bitcoin reaches again it’s all time high price!

[Jating]

^^ For those who have witnessed 2 halvings already, I think it's fair to say that CZ got it at point. I mean, currently we have a lot of noises already with that halving then coupled with the supposedly Bitcoin spot ETF approval.

Then days after the halving there will be no sudden and massive price increased, it will take days or months before we can finally see what bitcoin bull run really means, as the price will go up.

And then when you thought that we have seen the all time high already, then think again. The price could really explode in 2024, and we will surpassed the previous all time high of $69k. However, the price will continue to go up till the end of 2025.

[bettercrypto]

In my own opinion about the next Bitcoin halving, I do not think we could experience some new ATHs again like what we have experienced after the 2020 halving. Maybe it can pump a bit but that’s not going to be that much anymore, but correct me if I am wrong later on.

It took like a few months before it broke the then-ATH of Bitcoin and soared up to $30k. Then Elon Musk enters the game and the BTC pump went crazy and wild due to his big influence as well as the rise of P2Es and memecoins too.

I am still holding BTCs for now so it would be interesting for us to see when the halving day comes and after that.

CZ's point is what he said. Now, if you have a little doubt about the upcoming halving next year and it won't be the same as the previous halving, that's your opinion. It's just that at the end of the day, even if you have doubts, you still save and hold Bitcoin for the possibilities that can happen, right?

The only thing I'm sure of is that what ATH was this last halving will be higher this coming halving and bull season. And this is also what the majority of the community here in the crypto space is expecting.

[arabspaceship123]

I don't know if the majority of the community in the crypto space is expecting it I'm hating to be on the opposite view. ATH isn't guaranteed to occur so you can't compare it to the previous halving. Investing's a risky thing so before ppl do it they've got to research or else they'll take a loss.

The only thing I'm sure of is that what ATH was this last halving will be higher this coming halving and bull season. And this is also what the majority of the community here in the crypto space is expecting.

[pawanjain]

CZ is just saying what has happened in the past and also clearing the fact that it does not predict the future.
That's known to every bitcoin enthusiast. Key takeout from this is that we must buy bitcoin now while it's cheap.
HODL till it goes to the next ATH and that's how we are gonna make money. HODL is the important factor here.

[arabspaceship123]

If ppl were interested in what CZ was saying they would’ve taken the chance by buying bitcoin for the halving which’s coming soon. It’s a known fact there isn’t a fool proof formula that’s available which’s going to guarantee halving’s giving double or triple profits. 

CZ is just saying what has happened in the past and also clearing the fact that it does not predict the future.
That's known to every bitcoin enthusiast. Key takeout from this is that we must buy bitcoin now while it's cheap.
HODL till it goes to the next ATH and that's how we are gonna make money. HODL is the important factor here.

[tjtonmoy]

History repeats itself over and over again. Also, this is common knowledge amongst Bitcoin investors or holders. Those who have stayed long enough in the crypto space already know what's coming. It will happen, but the question is when. It could take a year all over a year for this to happen, but the main trigger is the Bitcoin halving.

Either you invest right now or some days before the halving, it really doesn't matter if you are willing to hold it for a long period of time. That is the point of Bitcoin investment. You hold long enough till you see gains. It's all about giving time to your investment and wait. No one can predict the future but it is true that history tells ask a lot about what's coming. We wait and watch it all coming to reality little by little.