Is Bitcoin In Bullish or Bearish Trend?

[Best-mary]

The question about Bitcoin's current state keeps surfacing on the internet, and here's my perspective on it. I believe that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a significant bearish phase. This might come as a surprise, considering its widespread popularity, but when we delve into essential data points, it becomes apparent that some of the optimism surrounding its future is unravelling.

To provide context, when we look at Bitcoin's historical performance, we would expect periods of surges followed by normalization, fostering sustainable long-term growth. However, the reality differs. A close examination of monthly trading activity data from the beginning of 2018 reveals a consistent year-over-year decline in Bitcoin's trading activity for at least five years.

For instance, in September of this year, Bitcoin's trading activity was 68.6% lower compared to the same month the previous year. Over the past two years, it has seen a more moderate decrease of 54.8%. Yet, when compared to three years ago, it has declined by 68.9%, and compared to five years ago, it has plummeted by a substantial 86.1%. The overall trend is unequivocal: trading activity is on a steady decline, and Bitcoin's price significantly relies on the optimism of traders. Acknowledging these trends is essential. This is what some people believe.

However, I hold the view that Bitcoin's price is primarily driven by sentiment. Whether we accept it or not, it's our sentiment that propels Bitcoin's price, not technical analysis. Technical analysis only comes into play when we need to determine the price range for our next buying or selling decision.

I've observed that many people employ various strategies to accumulate Bitcoin during this prevailing bearish phase, such as the widely recognized DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) and Dual Investment (I often discuss these together because they complement each other). Some opt for Smart Trend, while a significant number engage in trading Bitcoin on futures contracts.

Everyone has their approach in anticipation of a potential Bitcoin surge in the near future. However, we should also consider how long everyone can wait for this expected turnaround. It's commonly suggested that next year will be fundamentally positive for Bitcoin, but what if price manipulation, like the dynamics of price ranging for several days getting to weeks seen this month during "Uptober," comes into play with no significant direction on where price would go but a mere indecisive action that can lead to manipulation and sweep traders who either long or short

So, what is your perspective: Do you believe we are currently in a bear market, or is this merely a manipulation to discourage some individuals from Bitcoin?

[1714815407]

1714815407

[Captain Corporate]

I believe that it is in neither trend right now. People think that these trends of bull or bear meaning the price, but it means the direction not the price. SO a lot of people do not realize that no matter how much a price drop happens or a price increase happens, if the price stays flat for a long time then it is none of them. I have seen it not do all that weirdly so far and I am thinking that we are going to do a bit more common for a while as well and not really move up or down too much. This doesn't mean that a small chance won't happen, as much as %10 could possibly happen in either direction, that would be the highest I would say until its a trend. But anything under that and I consider that as normal and neither trends.

[Coin_trader]

So, what is your perspective: Do you believe we are currently in a bear market, or is this merely a manipulation to discourage some individuals from Bitcoin?

Bitcoin doesn’t have any clear trend for anyone to rule out. It nonsense to assume any trend while the price is clearly on the sideways of bullrun in short time frame(days) and bear market in long time frame(months). The price is currently on indecision phase so there’s no current trend here unless the price breaks any major support and resistance that is already a boundary for more than a month.

All this price action is clear the result of 2 sides of traders that has opposite belief. Positive trader believe that ETF approval and Bitcoin halving will boost the price while the other side are those still viewing the Bitcoin chart as bearish.

[Dickiy]

If I look at the position of bitcoin within one year, or more simply from the beginning of 2023 until now towards the end of the year I see that bulish dominates, especially during the first month of this year until April where bitcoin experienced a significant increase which eventually stopped at $ 31k as the first highest resistance at the beginning of this year, then then experienced a bearish phase again until the price of $ 24k which is the lowest support in the middle of the year. If we race to support and resistance, it is clear that in 2023 bitcoin has increased where some previous supports are lower than the latest support, so of course there is a fairly dominating increase.

And well now bitcoin is experiencing a new bearish phase if we look at the last two months after experiencing a sideways phase which finally gave indications for the increase that is now really happening, we can see now bitcoin is forming new support in this October which is higher than support last month. According to what I see, there is already a pretty good confirmation that shows an indication that the price will go back up in the near future, and according to my prediction the bullish will continue until it at least touches the highest resistance in the last month, namely $28,580.

[floridaman86]

It seems to be pretty neutral at the moment. But everyone seems to  think that the halving next year will trigger a massive bull rally, and this confuses me.
If everyone already knows about the halving, the wouldn't it be baked in? I seem to be the only one that thinks it ain't gonna make a difference in the price

[Faisal2202]

For instance, in September of this year, Bitcoin's trading activity was 68.6% lower compared to the same month the previous year. Over the past two years, it has seen a more moderate decrease of 54.8%. Yet, when compared to three years ago, it has declined by 68.9%, and compared to five years ago, it has plummeted by a substantial 86.1%. The overall trend is unequivocal: trading activity is on a steady decline, and Bitcoin's price significantly relies on the optimism of traders. Acknowledging these trends is essential. This is what some people believe.

Ok, I got it that, the BTC price is declining because traders are decreasing, Is that what you are trying to imply here? But what I think is, that we should not use 5 years old trading data/stats to predict the reasons for the current market price. Well, you can use the current data, but to be honest, I don't think that's a good thing to predict the BTC price, because it not only depends on the demand and supply factor, but only 99%. (Some might not agree with me). What I am confused about here is, if the trading activity is decreasing, but holding activity is increasing so much, is that still an indicator to influence on the BTC price?

Well, D&S does have a great impact, and daily trading, makes the price of BTC very volatile, but when a huge buying pressure comes, the market takes big pumps, and most of the time, the market (BTC) takes huge pumps due to some good news.

while a significant number engage in trading Bitcoin on futures contracts.

So, you are saying the trading activity decreasing but future trading is increasing! I mean really. Well, first, I would like to see the source from where you took the stats.

So, what is your perspective: Do you believe we are currently in a bear market, or is this merely a manipulation to discourage some individuals from Bitcoin?

We are in a bearish market, and there is no doubt about it, or you can see we are in the accumulation phase and we should take benefit of it to fill our bags with BTC or other tokens (diversification).

[BIT-BENDER]

I believe that it is in neither trend right now. People think that these trends of bull or bear meaning the price, but it means the direction not the price. SO a lot of people do not realize that no matter how much a price drop happens or a price increase happens, if the price stays flat for a long time then it is none of them.

I get your point mate and it makes sense this is how I paint it. before a price can be considered flat what was the market prior to that. Let's say Bitcoin start rising to $40 we would say that the bull market is on and let's say at the market fluctuate around $35k-$45k the market is still maintaining if the resistance breaks lower I think it can be considered a bear market trend and is the resistance breaks high then the bull run may have just kicked off again

[ZAINmalik75]

I believe that it is in neither trend right now. People think that these trends of bull or bear meaning the price, but it means the direction not the price.

Exactly, a run, either it is bull, or bearish, it does not mean, the price of BTC is increased or decreased, but it means a bull zone or a timeline has begun in which the price of BTC will make ATH, or tests out, all of its resistances and the bearish zone is a timeline in which the price tests out its all supports. In other words, in the bearish zone, we will see a decline and in the bull zone, we will see an increment in the price of BTC.

And if we study the bull and bear zone with respect to the Halving, then after halving bull run starts, and after a bull run, the bearish run starts and then halving again. So according to this knowledge, we can say that we are currently in a bearish zone and going toward a bull run after the halving.

This doesn't mean that a small chance won't happen, as much as %10 could possibly happen in either direction, that would be the highest I would say until its a trend. But anything under that and I consider that as normal and neither trends.

You really set some perimeters for you, are they like universal or your personal ones? If they are universal then I think I can also use them, but to my knowledge, I have already said what is bearish run and bullish run and how I interpret them.

[Adbitco]

I am replying this topic based on your title..
And if may answer you directly, looking from history how bitcoin started from fractions of dollars we can boldly say that bitcoin is on the bull trend, to me bear can be when the price is below the launched price, actually why people calls it bear is that if they ventured the market at $29k and slightly the market went back to $20k or below the mentioned Price these sets of people can say is in bear run because they are experiencing upto 30 to 40 percent lost. While those who succeeded venturing the market at $2k to $10k can still have confidence that the market isn't bad on their sides hence can say is at bull run. So we can call it bear or bull depending on our entry points.

[TimeTeller]

I am replying this topic based on your title..
And if may answer you directly, looking from history how bitcoin started from fractions of dollars we can boldly say that bitcoin is on the bull trend, to me bear can be when the price is below the launched price, actually why people calls it bear is that if they ventured the market at $29k and slightly the market went back to $20k or below the mentioned Price these sets of people can say is in bear run because they are experiencing upto 30 to 40 percent lost. While those who succeeded venturing the market at $2k to $10k can still have confidence that the market isn't bad on their sides hence can say is at bull run. So we can call it bear or bull depending on our entry points.

How you identify the market whether it is bearish or bullish depends on when will you compare it from.
This is why there's no concrete definition as to when we classify a bearish or bullish season.
For some, we are in the bearish season as we are below $30k level and it was way more than half of the BTC's ATH.
However, if you will compare it with the first 5 years of btc, you can say that we are absolutely still in the bullish period.
So yes, how you label the trend of this market depends on when you want to based it with, what time period you want to refer to.

[PX-Z]

The question about Bitcoin's current state keeps surfacing on the internet, and here's my perspective on it.

If you compare the price in the last 3 months, obviously we are in bearish state, but not that bearish, we hit $30k in July and now its $26k, a $4k low difference is not that bad, which cannot be considered neither as bear or even bull.

[panganib999]

Hard to say for certain especially during these times. For one we're not yet at a period in time where bitcoin's supposed to be on the bullish or the bearish trend. There's no reason for it to fall under these two categories since the halving is not here yet, and there are no news/issues that have surfaced which will affect the disposition of the people towards bitcoin. With that being said I can say for sure that in the coming months up to a year after the halving, we'll see some awesome stuff going about, possibly a new ATH, etc. etc.

We'll just have to play the waiting game at this point and eagerly work towards building our portfolio, months from now this could be the cheapest that bitcoin could go so we better get ready just in case.

[Adbitco]

Snip

How you identify the market whether it is bearish or bullish depends on when will you compare it from.
This is why there's no concrete definition as to when we classify a bearish or bullish season.
For some, we are in the bearish season as we are below $30k level and it was way more than half of the BTC's ATH.
However, if you will compare it with the first 5 years of btc, you can say that we are absolutely still in the bullish period.
So yes, how you label the trend of this market depends on when you want to based it with, what time period you want to refer to.

Actually judging from the ATH we can say the market is in bear because those who ventured the market at a higher entry point can say they on bearish season. Who knows the bitcoin could go this low after hitting about $70k as ATH then people were basically thinking the next target could be $100k which made them ran into bitcoin without thinking after bull run always experience some certain dump in the market whereby those who bought ATH are the people to likely fell victim.

[AnisahSiti]

I believe that currently it is still in a neutral position which has a good opportunity to accumulate BTC. Many also say that we are still in a bearish market because we have not been able to penetrate the price of $32K (strong resistance). And some analysts say through technical analysis that the price is able to visit the $17K - $20K area before the halving occurs. Apart from all that, I believe in BTC, and I will make a purchase at any price now as long as the BTC price is discounted.

[AtlanticBlueSky]

Will Uptober Uptober today? Lots of volatility favouring possible start of Uptober? Hit 26933 with ease and coming back. Projecting 55k today and 80k this week

[Blitzboy]

I cannot deny that your data points show a concerning picture of Bitcoin's trading volume. We need to consider a few factors before embracing the decreased trading activity narrative, right?

The environment of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading has changed swiftly, especially with more user-friendly platforms and alternative investment channels. From my perspective? - I wouldnt use trade activity alone to assess Bitcoin's health. Traditional trading platforms may be declining while decentralised ones are rising. Per se, its activity redistribution.

Your sentiment-driven price view is common. Clearly, emotions drive the market. Its also crucial to illuminate intrinsic value propositions, utility, and adoptions. Bigger companies are integrating Bitcoin into their operations, and it goes beyond trading. Its multifarious utility cannot be overlooked. Cryptocurrency has always had dramatic price manipulation and waiting periods. Patience and caution have led to success in the past.

[AtlanticBlueSky]

I believe that currently it is still in a neutral position which has a good opportunity to accumulate BTC. Many also say that we are still in a bearish market because we have not been able to penetrate the price of $32K (strong resistance). And some analysts say through technical analysis that the price is able to visit the $17K - $20K area before the halving occurs. Apart from all that, I believe in BTC, and I will make a purchase at any price now as long as the BTC price is discounted.

I believe its Uptober time. Will be Bullish all week. Hitting 27034 was not a fluke its an indication of strong interest favouring an upward trend

[AtlanticBlueSky]

Can hit 40k today

[BlockchainWizard]

I expect that we will see a longer sideways trend. The current macro situation is not too promising. A lot of unrest in the world and the extremely tense financial market do not make the situation any better. As long as these conditions do not change for the better, we will see another sideways trend. If there is a recession, I see the BTC price going even a little lower than the current price. Time will tell.

[Hamza2424]

I cant give any wordic on it but I can express the current zone possibility we are in late accumulation and early Bull zone, However, the price action is not the only one to decide the market zone, Here in Bitcoin market sentiments and Onchain data can easily elaborate the Zone for you.

I'm assuming OP that market valuation will be ina action in the middle fo November, it can behave aggressively due to some possible developments in near future.

Can hit 40k today

What are you talking about.. market dont behave in such order, not even in volatile mode because there some limit order.. Resitnaces.