Bitcoin's Fourth Halving Under 200 Days Out, What's at Stake for Miners?

[theorys]

With fewer than 200 days to go, anticipation mounts for the halving, a four-year event that halves the supply rate. Bitcoin’s fourth halving is projected to take place on or around April 24, 2024. This comprehensive guide will help you understand the halving’s effects and what to anticipate.
The Countdown to Halving and Understanding the Halving Mechanism

By current measurements, 193 days remain until the halving, set for April 2024. In essence, the Bitcoin halving, coded into Bitcoin by its founder,Satoshi Nakamoto, happens every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years. When the network hits a certain block number, the mining reward — the bitcoin amount miners earn for verifying transactions — is halved.

For instance, the initial mining reward was 50 bitcoins per block, and it fell to 25 bitcoins per block after 2012’s first halving. This system ensures a regulated supply rate that diminishes over time. To date, Bitcoin has undergone three halvings: the first on November 28, 2012, the second on July 9, 2016, and the third on May 11, 2020, when the reward declined to 6.25 BTC
read

[Blitzboy]

Wow, there are just around 200 days left till crypto-Christmas, is that right? So, here's the situation: we're all waiting for the halving, rubbing our hands together, thinking about charts, and attempting to predict what will happen. However, we understand that the rewards for miners will be cut in half, which should theoretically reduce supply and increase demand, possibly leading to an increase in prices. Its fundamental economics, but the word "theoretically" should be kept in mind.

Now, the prior halves have featured some incredible bull runs after the event. We observed it in 2013, in 2017, and, with a delayed effect, in 2020 as well. But, (and yes, there is a "but") the price of Bitcoin is affected by a wide range of variables. Therefore, even though the halving—a planned mechanism for creating scarcity—is a foregone conclusion, its effect on pricing is anything but predicted. Heck, unforeseeable events (like global pandemics) and the macroeconomic environment can all change the trend in unexpected ways.

[Faisal2202]

Miners don't only make money out of Block rewards (Block reward is the reward in BTC which currently is 6.25) but a miner makes money out of the fee that people pay while making transactions. Because miners are the ones who validate TX and process TX and spend their useful resources (machinery) and spend a huge amount of energy just to earn money.

And with halving, there is no doubt that the block reward reduced to half, which of course a loss for the miners, but as you can see, with each halving, the price of BTC improved and the amount that miners were making in BTC did decreased but in fiat (USD) it increased. I hope there is no need to give an example.

So, I think when the halving in April occurs, the price of BTC will improve and reach to a height where it will be making them the same or more money even from the fee which from another point of view, might be a problem for the TXs makers. But it can be solved using the Lightning network.

[BlackHatCoiner]

When the network hits a certain block number, the mining reward — the bitcoin amount miners earn for verifying transactions — is halved.

To be pedantic, it's the block subsidy that's getting halved. The block reward can be anything, as long as there are mined transactions which pay respectively.

So, I think when the halving in April occurs, the price of BTC will improve and reach to a height where it will be making them the same or more money even from the fee which from another point of view

This is not how it works. Just because the mining reward will shrink, it doesn't ensure price increase. If the miners can't pay their bills, they simply shut down their business. Block reward shrinking means pretty much hash rate decline on the long term.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

This is not how it works. Just because the mining reward will shrink, it doesn't ensure price increase. If the miners can't pay their bills, they simply shut down their business. Block reward shrinking means pretty much hash rate decline on the long term.

When Bitcoin network hash rate shrinks a lot because miners shut down their rigs, Bitcoin blocks will need more time to be found and Bitcoin network will need more difficulty epochs to adjust.

Slowly but if there is hash rate, new blocks will be found, quick or slow and after a few weeks or months, network hash rate will be good enough for lower network hash rate to work normally and new blocks will be found about 10 minutes in average.

[Faisal2202]

This is not how it works. Just because the mining reward will shrink, it doesn't ensure price increase. If the miners can't pay their bills, they simply shut down their business. Block reward shrinking means pretty much hash rate decline on the long term.

Thanks for mentioning it out, as I was being too positive while writing the reply and forgot to mention the other side of this whole scenario which is bad for a miner. But you said, that's not how it works --> that would be in a way to emphasize the bad side of it, which is high hash rate means more machines and more energy, and more expenses. If it exceeds the profits then obviously the business will go bankrupt.

How can you say, it doesn't ensure a price increase, I mean, after each and every halving, back in time, the price of BTC improved and reached new ATH or isn't it? Maybe I am missing something. Would love to hear from you.

Just to be clear, I am not being too optimistic about the BTC price, and of course, I accept the possibility of BTC not touch new heights but the probability of this possibility is negligible in my mind.

[BlackHatCoiner]

When Bitcoin network hash rate shrinks a lot because miners shut down their rigs, Bitcoin blocks will need more time to be found and Bitcoin network will need more difficulty epochs to adjust.

Only until the next difficulty adjustment. After that, it would take normal times to mine blocks.

How can you say, it doesn't ensure a price increase, I mean, after each and every halving, back in time, the price of BTC improved and reached new ATH or isn't it?

Yes, in every single halving we've experienced so far, the price would increase more than the block reward decline. That's probably why hash rate has skyrocketed comparably to previous halvings. But, that doesn't mean history will repeat itself. We can't make schedules based merely on Bitcoin doubling in price every four years. 

[hugeblack]

It is better to calculate it by the number of blocks instead of days, because the difference may be about a month between predictions that say it will happen at the end of March and others at the end of April, and variables may affect this. If the price of Bitcoin continues in the range of 30 thousand dollars, some miners may begin to panic and Then more of them stop mining, and vice versa, if the price rises sharply. In short, and based on a lot of historical data, there will likely be a clear change in the price of Bitcoin during the next two years.

[AmoreJaz]

It is better to calculate it by the number of blocks instead of days, because the difference may be about a month between predictions that say it will happen at the end of March and others at the end of April, and variables may affect this. If the price of Bitcoin continues in the range of 30 thousand dollars, some miners may begin to panic and Then more of them stop mining, and vice versa, if the price rises sharply. In short, and based on a lot of historical data, there will likely be a clear change in the price of Bitcoin during the next two years.

but for sure it will happen next year.  anyway, if you are a miner and you have the capability to collect as much satoshis as you can, better collect it and not sell it with the current price. the likelihood that it will increase is high in my opinion. though we can never be sure about the future but history wise, the probability says that positive movement can be expected. well as a miner, you also have instincts to what may happen, right? so follow what you think is best for your stash.

[Upgrade00]

But you said, that's not how it works --> that would be in a way to emphasize the bad side of it, which is high hash rate means more machines and more energy, and more expenses. If it exceeds the profits then obviously the business will go bankrupt.

The result of halving is reduced hashrate not a higher one.
The price of Bitcoin does not instantaneously rise after the halving is done, but the new coins awarded to miners is halved immediately, causing miners with a business to run to encounter difficulties finding their mining gear and electricity.

By history, many miners lose interest in mining immediately following the halving and close down their rig. This results in a lower hashratr and some period of difficulty adjustment to make it more accessible.

[BitDane]

Miners don't only make money out of Block rewards (Block reward is the reward in BTC which currently is 6.25) but a miner makes money out of the fee that people pay while making transactions. Because miners are the ones who validate TX and process TX and spend their useful resources (machinery) and spend a huge amount of energy just to earn money.

The question would be, as the block reward diminishes, will the transaction fee make up for the reduced reward?  If there is not enough transaction to compensate miners for the reduced reward and miners experienced shortage of profit, this would be a big problem on the Bitcoin ecosystem.

And with halving, there is no doubt that the block reward reduced to half, which of course a loss for the miners, but as you can see, with each halving, the price of BTC improved and the amount that miners were making in BTC did decreased but in fiat (USD) it increased. I hope there is no need to give an example.

This is the reason why adoption and Bitcoin integration to companies as mode of payment must sync with or even goes further with the halving to compensate for the reduced reward.  Relying on the price increase alone is not sufficient because somewhere down the road price increase will meet its choke point and as the mining reward goes to zero, it will only rely on the transaction fee for the reward, reason why adoption and integration is very important.

So, I think when the halving in April occurs, the price of BTC will improve and reach to a height where it will be making them the same or more money even from the fee which from another point of view, might be a problem for the TXs makers. But it can be solved using the Lightning network.

I hope that the increase in price will make mining more than profitable because I think as of now tx fee reward cannot make up for the reduced reward due to halving.

[adaseb]

No I don’t think the transaction fees will make up for the loss of miner rewards after the halving. We had that crazy pump of ordinals on the blockchain which made fees spike and miners had a couple of good weeks here and there but if you look how you can pretty much get a transaction confirmed with 2sat/byte.

Same with ETH. The network used to be super congested but now it’s dead you can get a transaction under 5 gwei which was unimaginable about 1 year back.

[avikz]

With fewer than 200 days to go, anticipation mounts for the halving, a four-year event that halves the supply rate. Bitcoin’s fourth halving is projected to take place on or around April 24, 2024. This comprehensive guide will help you understand the halving’s effects and what to anticipate.
The Countdown to Halving and Understanding the Halving Mechanism

By current measurements, 193 days remain until the halving, set for April 2024. In essence, the Bitcoin halving, coded into Bitcoin by its founder,Satoshi Nakamoto, happens every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years. When the network hits a certain block number, the mining reward — the bitcoin amount miners earn for verifying transactions — is halved.

For instance, the initial mining reward was 50 bitcoins per block, and it fell to 25 bitcoins per block after 2012’s first halving. This system ensures a regulated supply rate that diminishes over time. To date, Bitcoin has undergone three halvings: the first on November 28, 2012, the second on July 9, 2016, and the third on May 11, 2020, when the reward declined to 6.25 BTC
read

Short and sweet explanation! I am sure a not of newbies will find it informative.

Halving occurs in every 4 years roughly. The expectation for miners is the hike in price. As the mining reward will be reduced by 50%, the price of bitcoin should get increased to compensate for the miners.

It's a risky thing because, unless the price increases, it will become difficult for the miners to make profit out of their mining activities. And to ensure network perticipation and security, it is important.

[Helena Yu]

The miner will receive less reward in terms of solving the Bitcoin block, but it's not affect the reward of verifying a transaction since it depends on how much people are going to pay the fees. If it's not worth to solving the block, they can still able to earn through verifying a transaction or the other way around.

Not every miner will survive when the difficulty and electricity will rise, this is why "The Only Easy Day Was Yesterday".