Is doubling your investment more probable than we think?

[Ultegra134]

With halving less than a year from now, the majority of us are speculating a major increase in price and possibly the start of another bull market after 4 years. Some are expecting to surpass the previous ATH of almost $70,000 and possibly reach $100,000. Although this scenario sounds great and all, I'm not quite confident that it'll happen in the upcoming year or so. The current economic condition in the world isn't too promising and, in my opinion, will set back investments in general, including bonds and the stock market. I hope I'm proven wrong, though.

However, I tend to have a more pessimistic and down-to-earth approach to this matter. Bitcoin's current price is ranging from $27,000 to $28,000 as we speak, while we will also occasionally see it as low as $25,000. With that being said, in my opinion, sometime after the halving, the scenario of Bitcoin surpassing $50,000 doesn't sound too impossible to me. Thus, if we suppose that someone purchases Bitcoin now, approximately within a year, he or she may be capable of doubling their initial investment.

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

[ColdLava40]

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

Your opinion about the bull market isn't far from the truth, but I think almost everyone now picture the bull run with an idea of pure assumption. Too many expectations, but no certainty of what might happened. I would love to see the halving process come soon, so as to reduce the tension among those with too much expectations, and I hope the expectation of the majority doesn't turn to disappointment.

[Mia Chloe]

Exactly @Ultegra134 hodling returns over the years under Bitcoin have proven to be very profitable.However one should not input too much trust into Bitcoin rise in the next halving.The idea of Bitcoin reaching $100k or more is a thing of enthusiasm  or hope I would say which still has a chance of happening

[Isuru_]

With the next Bitcoin halving less than a year away, everyone's speculating about what will happen to the price. Some people are expecting a massive surge, while others are more pessimistic.

I'm not sure if Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high of $100,000 in the next year, but I think it's definitely possible that it could surpass $50,000.

That would mean doubling your investment if you buy now.

Of course, there's always the chance that the price could go down instead of up. But even if that happens, I think Bitcoin is still a good long-term investment.

It's a scarce asset with a limited supply, and it's becoming increasingly popular as a store of value and a medium of exchange.

So, if you're looking for an investment that could potentially double your money in the next year, Bitcoin is worth considering.

DYOR

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Exactly @Ultegra134 hodling returns over the years under Bitcoin have proven to be very profitable.However one should not input too much trust into Bitcoin rise in the next halving.The idea of Bitcoin reaching $100k or more is a thing of enthusiasm  or hope I would say which still has a chance of happening

Bitcoin has been a very profitable investment over the years, but it's important to remember that it's also a very volatile asset. There's no guarantee that Bitcoin will continue to rise in price, even after the next halving.

Some people are predicting that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 or more in the next year. Others are more pessimistic.

I'm not sure what will happen, but I think it's important to be realistic. There are a lot of factors that could affect the price of Bitcoin in the coming months and years, including the global economic climate, regulatory changes, and overall adoption.

If you're thinking about investing in Bitcoin, it's important to do your own research and invest only what you can afford to lose.

 Bitcoin is a risky investment, but it could also be very rewarding. If you're comfortable with the risks involved, it's worth considering. But don't expect to get rich quick.

[lombok]

This could happen. It could probably be over $50,000 or lower. And I think maybe some people too, that when the market is bearish and prices are still close to the lowest price range or lower low, this is very good for accumulating or buying. Often prices will stabilize at this time for quite a long period of time and provide an opportunity to make a purchase. And we are all sure and perhaps have experienced it during the previous halving period, that the price of BTC will start to rise and turn into a bull market after the BTC halving occurs.

Dyor.

[Z-tight]

Whether it is doubling your investment as you say, or expecting a greater pump in price, they are all speculations or predictions; and it doesn't really matter what mr A predicts or what mr X is expecting, because we cannot know what will happen and we can only wait.

What matters is that you are not buying more than you can afford to lose, and that your prediction and expectation isn't affecting your decision making in real life, if you are not doing any of these, then we can make predictions as we like and people should understand that those predictions do not influence what will eventually happen as most of them are just pulled out of a hat.

[Z390]

Exactly @Ultegra134 hodling returns over the years under Bitcoin have proven to be very profitable.However one should not input too much trust into Bitcoin rise in the next halving. The idea of Bitcoin reaching $100k or more is a thing of enthusiasm  or hope I would say which still has a chance of happening

Sorry I don't agree, I have my trust in Bitcoin than the country's paper money, I have trust in Bitcoin than storing money in the banks, it's worth trusting Bitcoin than your money system in your country, making a profit is another different thing and you need to DCA or enter when there is a massive sell-off i bought most of my Bitcoin at the range of 15,000 and 18,000 and weeks back I almost make a double gain when Bitcoin goes back to 29 - 30 range.

It's not good to try to target the bottom too so it's better to DCA, there is nothing in the digital world that's more reliable than Bitcoin, do not say this statement that one should not put trust in Bitcoin, do you know what could make someone to have more money in Bitcoin than in their bank accounts? It's complete trust on decentralization over the government.

Since the beginning of this bear season Bitcoin have been very profitable than 99% of other assets in crypto space, only a few altcoins have done better than Bitcoin since the start of this bear market, but my point isn't really about the profits but how reliable Bitcoin is, sorry pal there is nothing I trust more than Bitcoin.

[Asiska02]

With halving less than a year from now, the majority of us are speculating a major increase in price and possibly the start of another bull market after 4 years. Some are expecting to surpass the previous ATH of almost $70,000 and possibly reach $100,000. Although this scenario sounds great and all, I'm not quite confident that it'll happen in the upcoming year or so. The current economic condition in the world isn't too promising and, in my opinion, will set back investments in general, including bonds and the stock market. I hope I'm proven wrong, though.

You don’t need to be proven wrong, the economic condition can be seen as comparison to your statement on how bitcoin will farewell in the upcoming bull run. Even before bringing the current economic condition into play, bitcoin does not always makes a new all-time high immediately after the bull run. It takes some months to witness a bull run and a new all-time high is reached the following year after the bull run. Maybe after the bull run, all market conditions could be affected and a change to your initial statement will be established to make the bull run realistic as many people are predicting it to be after bull run.

However, I tend to have a more pessimistic and down-to-earth approach to this matter. Bitcoin's current price is ranging from $27,000 to $28,000 as we speak, while we will also occasionally see it as low as $25,000. With that being said, in my opinion, sometime after the halving, the scenario of Bitcoin surpassing $50,000 doesn't sound too impossible to me. Thus, if we suppose that someone purchases Bitcoin now, approximately within a year, he or she may be capable of doubling their initial investment.

Being pessimistic about the future price of bitcoin after the bull run does not make it impossible for it to reach a new all-time high; being pessimistic will just make you not let your bitcoin price expectations bring you down when they are not reached. Being pessimistic should not cause you to lose hope in the future or make you incapable of anticipating the price of bitcoin when it arises.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

The bitcoin price will most likely pass $100,000 in the next cycle. Otherwise analysts are going to have to rethink their very downside predictions, such as these:

Bitcoin base case target on 2030 is $682,800 according to Ark Invest

Michael Saylor predicts Bitcoin can go to $5 million?

Doubling the investment from these levels is practically guaranteed, the question is to keep accumulating because everything indicates that the money you put in bitcoin will be more profitable than other more traditional investments such as gold bonds or index funds.

[Joeyp]

However, I tend to have a more pessimistic and down-to-earth approach to this matter. Bitcoin's current price is ranging from $27,000 to $28,000 as we speak, while we will also occasionally see it as low as $25,000.

Bitcoin price will be the same as current for next few years, and can go to $20 000 too, because people use altcoins more than before. Bitcoin LN project was good, but now altcoins are much faster in transfers, and also with cheaper transfer fee.

[komisariatku]

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

Since almost everyone on this forum is a bitcoin lover or bitcoin activist, everyone here believes history will repeat itself and bitcoin will reach a new ATH. Although sometimes we need to wait up to a year after the halving before prices start to rise. I think bitcoin's popularity is getting better and more people are aware of this, both on this forum and not.

It seems like bitcoin has an ATH cycle, just like its halving cycle. I believe history will repeat itself and a new ATH will be created. We just need patience and always hold bitcoin, maybe we even need to start saving bitcoin every month

[Ultegra134]

Since almost everyone on this forum is a bitcoin lover or bitcoin activist, everyone here believes history will repeat itself and bitcoin will reach a new ATH. Although sometimes we need to wait up to a year after the halving before prices start to rise. I think bitcoin's popularity is getting better and more people are aware of this, both on this forum and not.

It seems like bitcoin has an ATH cycle, just like its halving cycle. I believe history will repeat itself and a new ATH will be created. We just need patience and always hold bitcoin, maybe we even need to start saving bitcoin every month

Well, in my opinion, this assumption stands because it happened after the previous halvings. Statistics show that the market performs in 4-year cycles; at least that's what has happened till now. That doesn't necessarily mean it'll keep going in the future.

The bitcoin price will most likely pass $100,000 in the next cycle. Otherwise analysts are going to have to rethink their very downside predictions, such as these:

Bitcoin base case target on 2030 is $682,800 according to Ark Invest

Michael Saylor predicts Bitcoin can go to $5 million?

Doubling the investment from these levels is practically guaranteed, the question is to keep accumulating because everything indicates that the money you put in bitcoin will be more profitable than other more traditional investments such as gold bonds or index funds.

That's what I've also read. From my point of view, both speculations you've quoted seem way too unrealistic, at least with the data we have today. We can't predict 2025, let alone 2030. I tend to have a more sustained view of Bitcoin's price and prefer to think about what's more likely to happen rather than imagine 3x or 4x. If that doesn't happen, then my expectations would fall short, and I wouldn't be satisfied if I yielded anything less.

You don’t need to be proven wrong, the economic condition can be seen as comparison to your statement on how bitcoin will farewell in the upcoming bull run. Even before bringing the current economic condition into play, bitcoin does not always makes a new all-time high immediately after the bull run. It takes some months to witness a bull run and a new all-time high is reached the following year after the bull run. Maybe after the bull run, all market conditions could be affected and a change to your initial statement will be established to make the bull run realistic as many people are predicting it to be after bull run.

Being pessimistic about the future price of bitcoin after the bull run does not make it impossible for it to reach a new all-time high; being pessimistic will just make you not let your bitcoin price expectations bring you down when they are not reached. Being pessimistic should not cause you to lose hope in the future or make you incapable of anticipating the price of bitcoin when it arises.

My approach is to set low expectations and not be let down in case things don't turn our way. I also believe that Bitcoin is capable of reaching a new ATH; however, I'm claiming that $50,000, for instance, is a very probable price for the upcoming months or a year. Thus, doubling my investment isn't as complicated as it may sound. Personally, I'm not in a hurry to sell, even if we surpass $60,000 or even more in the upcoming two or three years. The truth is, I don't know how I'll react seeing that I've almost tripled my money, something of which I'm afraid because I'd be honestly tempted to sell.

[Winterfrost]

This question depends on how prepared you are. Imagine there is bull run and the price of Bitcoin all of a sudden goes up to $60k by tomorrow are you proud of the amount of Bitcoin you have accumulated so far in your portfolio?. Most person would say history always repeats itself where the price of Bitcoin will go so high during the bull season but I call it a tradition. It has always been the nature of Bitcoin since its existence beaten the ATH.

We are approaching the holiday season when Christians celebrate Christmas, and families often plan trips and vacations. During this time, there are many unnecessary expenses, such as buying jewelry, drinks, and taking trips to places like Paris. While these activities are enjoyable, if i had such money to do them, I would prefer to use it for Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) every week throughout before the next bull run, thereby doubling my investment. Currently, these activities won't provide any good financial benefits; they are expenses only for fun.

Threads like this are the reason I come here. They inspire me.

[m2017]

With halving less than a year from now, the majority of us are speculating a major increase in price and possibly the start of another bull market after 4 years. Some are expecting to surpass the previous ATH of almost $70,000 and possibly reach $100,000. Although this scenario sounds great and all, I'm not quite confident that it'll happen in the upcoming year or so. The current economic condition in the world isn't too promising and, in my opinion, will set back investments in general, including bonds and the stock market. I hope I'm proven wrong, though.

It is unlikely that we will see ATH in the coming year, because in previous cycles this came with some delay. Therefore, the more likely scenario when we see a price of $100.000 will occur within 1.5-2 years. This is a rough estimate. This is taking into account that there will be no sudden negative events on the cryptomarket, such as the failure of some large exchange or prohibitive laws related to bitcoin. And of course, unless a global economic event happens, to which it is unknown how bitcoin will react. Perhaps even such an event will be able to spur demand for btc as a way to preserve people's rapidly depreciating wealth.

However, I tend to have a more pessimistic and down-to-earth approach to this matter. Bitcoin's current price is ranging from $27,000 to $28,000 as we speak, while we will also occasionally see it as low as $25,000. With that being said, in my opinion, sometime after the halving, the scenario of Bitcoin surpassing $50,000 doesn't sound too impossible to me. Thus, if we suppose that someone purchases Bitcoin now, approximately within a year, he or she may be capable of doubling their initial investment.

I like that you don't have overly high expectations and try to soberly assess the situation. This is exactly what any investor should do - doubt and act with a cool head.

Well, yes, that's right. Buying a bitcoin now is expected to double your investment, and perhaps even triple or quadruple it in the best case scenario.

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

Undoubtedly, even doubling the investment is an impeccable result that those who doubt the bitcoin will not get.

[icalical]

The current economic condition in the world isn't too promising and, in my opinion, will set back investments in general, including bonds and the stock market. I hope I'm proven wrong, though.

The other investment like Stock is already experiencing a set back, the market cap growth wasn't as good as last year. And I am pretty surprise that the Bitcoin price was still be able to have a quick price bounce-up in this kind of economic condition. And for me with the current economic condition, if I can get my investment value doubled only in one year I would already be very happy. I don't really like speculating on Bitcoin since I prefer it to be not too volatile, but I if I enter the Bitcoin market right now, the best I could do would be 150% in a year if I am very lucky, or 130% or less if not, double my investment would be a miracle.

[posi]

With halving less than a year from now, the majority of us are speculating a major increase in price and possibly the start of another bull market after 4 years. Some are expecting to surpass the previous ATH of almost $70,000 and possibly reach $100,000. Although this scenario sounds great and all, I'm not quite confident that it'll happen in the upcoming year or so. The current economic condition in the world isn't too promising and, in my opinion, will set back investments in general, including bonds and the stock market. I hope I'm proven wrong, though.

There have been many theories and suspicions about this matter and I do not rule it out. But even if we don't have any price increases after the halving, I believe that in the following years, a bull season will also have to happen. Therefore, it is important that we have a backup plan instead of just relying on the halving and hoping for a good scenario to happen.

It's hard to know what will happen in the future but no matter what happens, I remain steadfast and confident in the future of bitcoin. It may take longer for us to double or triple our investment, but it will definitely happen.

[jcojci]

If bitcoin can't reach above $70k, I will still wait and don't want to sell my bitcoin. Even though I have bought bitcoin at the current price and when the price can reach around $50k, I will still wait for it to increase. But I will also sell some to take advantage of my investment.

I also don't expect the price to jump above $70 immediately after the halving. It will likely enter another waiting period, a few months, a year, or even two years, to see the price increase to above $100k. But I don't know. There's no telling what will happen after the halving.

[SamReomo]

Well, that's not a bad speculation I guess and surely Bitcoin will reach $50k within a year. But, we expect more from Bitcoin and that's why we are so optimistic about its price going above $90k and some of us even believe that it may reach $120k price mark in 2024-2025. I have mix thoughts about Bitcoin's price as sometimes I think it will reach $100k while other times I think it will reach and cross $120k. Surely it will reach a new ATH during the coming bull run but nobody yet knows that how intense this bull run will be. We'll have to wait for the future to see that happening.

[digaran]

I used to have a similar opinion about doubling your money in a year or so, but it was back in 2017, 2018 and price range between $1k to $6k, back then it was really easy to have 300% profit in less than 6 month, but now we are talking about $30k increase, that's too much for a market with 20m circulating supply out of 21m.

[kryptqnick]

I don't think that the global economic situation needs to be great for Bitcoin to reach another ATH. Let's not forget that the last bull market happened in the middle of the pandemic, lockdowns and huge disruptions of trade routes. Bitcoin can do well simply because people trust it more than they trust other things, for example (and some attributed BTC growth to US Covid financial relief to citizens), which allows it to grow when everything else isn't going well.
I think Bitcoin needs another year, so somewhere near the end of 2024 we can see a bull market, but that's merely my opinion.
As for $50k, I don't see it as more probable than $70k or $100k because historically, once Bitcoin reached the previous ATH after a bear market, it went on to surpass it. Stopping at $50k just doesn't seem likely to me because of that.