Is doubling your investment more probable than we think?

[komisariatku]

Since almost everyone on this forum is a bitcoin lover or bitcoin activist, everyone here believes history will repeat itself and bitcoin will reach a new ATH. Although sometimes we need to wait up to a year after the halving before prices start to rise. I think bitcoin's popularity is getting better and more people are aware of this, both on this forum and not.

It seems like bitcoin has an ATH cycle, just like its halving cycle. I believe history will repeat itself and a new ATH will be created. We just need patience and always hold bitcoin, maybe we even need to start saving bitcoin every month

Well, in my opinion, this assumption stands because it happened after the previous halvings. Statistics show that the market performs in 4-year cycles; at least that's what has happened till now. That doesn't necessarily mean it'll keep going in the future.

Yeah, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin's 4 year cycle will continue to occur in the future but the cycle is like a real myth. Most people usually learn from history so this 4 year cycle of bitcoin will remain awaited and may influence the market and peoples will start buying bitcoin in the hope that bitcoin will touch its ATH again. This condition will make the demand for bitcoin even higher and the price will rise.

However, I believe Bitcoin's 4-year cycle will continue to influence market sentiment and it is likely that Bitcoin prices will rise. I hope Bitcoin can touch ATH again, we can only predict and let time tell

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[Crypto Library]

Yeah, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin's 4 year cycle will continue to occur in the future but the cycle is like a real myth. Most people usually learn from history so this 4 year cycle of bitcoin will remain awaited and may influence the market and peoples will start buying bitcoin in the hope that bitcoin will touch its ATH again. This condition will make the demand for bitcoin even higher and the price will rise.
However, I believe Bitcoin's 4-year cycle will continue to influence market sentiment and it is likely that Bitcoin prices will rise. I hope Bitcoin can touch ATH again, we can only predict and let time tell

That is the main thing I also say. It is true that there is no guarantee that the price of Bitcoin will touch its new all-time high price after this halving. But if we look at past histories, there is a possibility, and I think most people would agree with that. However, it is true that Bitcoin's all-time brother will definitely be higher than the previous all-time high, but it is difficult to guarantee how much or how many times it will be.
Some things factor here, such as halving reward, halving results in bitcoin reward being reduced to half and then for bitcoin mining, miners have to sell their held bitcoins to cover the mining cost, thereby increasing the trend of buying bitcoins in the market and increasing the demand. Because of this I think the price of Bitcoin also increases. I will also say myself that the OP did not make any bad speculation.

[Captain Corporate]

I mean if we are looking at the technicality of the "probable" then yeah I would say so. The logic is this, if I start at 2020 with 100 dollars, and at 2021 I need 200 dollars, and at 2022 I need 400 and at 2023 I need 800, all of which would be pure doubling down every year, just even buying 100 dollars worth of bitcoin at 2020 would have yielded more than 800 in 2021 ,and you could have just stopped. That is why I think its quite "probable" in that sense. But also, you could lose as well, and if you do lose then its not going to be all that easy and things will be looking a lot worse, what you earned could all go away and you should be taking that type of risk if you do not know how to invest properly, or trade.

[|MINER|]

Although the current economic and political situation of the world is not good and I do not know how it is going to be in the future. Still I would say that this Bitcoin Halving is very important. Because this time it will be seen how the price pumping after the halving of Bitcoin even after so many global Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, Bitcoin provided a good pump after the halving period even after the global economy was in bad shape. Maybe something like that can be seen this time too. However, I think that Bitcoin will not go to a new good price in 2024, because every time it is seen that after the Bitcoin halving period, its price starts to recover and then touch a new all-time high price. So I would say it may take 2025 or more to touch the new all-time high price of Bitcoin. But hope that the new all-time high must be 2x or 3x more.

[Ale88]

With halving less than a year from now, the majority of us are speculating a major increase in price and possibly the start of another bull market after 4 years. Some are expecting to surpass the previous ATH of almost $70,000 and possibly reach $100,000. Although this scenario sounds great and all, I'm not quite confident that it'll happen in the upcoming year or so. The current economic condition in the world isn't too promising and, in my opinion, will set back investments in general, including bonds and the stock market. I hope I'm proven wrong, though.

However, I tend to have a more pessimistic and down-to-earth approach to this matter. Bitcoin's current price is ranging from $27,000 to $28,000 as we speak, while we will also occasionally see it as low as $25,000. With that being said, in my opinion, sometime after the halving, the scenario of Bitcoin surpassing $50,000 doesn't sound too impossible to me. Thus, if we suppose that someone purchases Bitcoin now, approximately within a year, he or she may be capable of doubling their initial investment.

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

I think that we are going to see a new ATH in 2025, not just after the halving because it always takes time. Anyway a 3x is pretty much the old ATH, a 4x means $100k, if despite the halving and the ETFs (with billions of dollars that would enter the market) we don't reach at least $100k in my opinion it means that something very bad happened because otherwise I can't see why we shouldn't do a 3-4x in the next couple of years.

[DeathAngel]

I would say doubling from here is as close to a guarantee as you can get in crypto. Double would be $54000 which we will definitely reach in the next two years. Bitcoin rewards people who have patience, it’s a virtue that not all of us have & that’s why the majority of people fail in crypto & sell when the price is down. Buying now is a great idea, it might not be easy to live through dips but if you can keep strong hands then you will be rewarded when the bull begins his run.

[imamusma]

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

I tend to agree that's true, but if this kind of mindset really takes hold among investors, then I'm sure there will be major selling pressure when $50k is reached. Of course it will cause a lot of panic as people tend to sell and take profits, but holding bitcoin for a longer period of time may be better to gain maximum profits.

But however, this assumption is not wrong because people's investment plans and goals do not have to be the same. Someone might take profits even by just 10%, but expecting 300% after the halving is reasonable based on history. Of course that is my assumption, but a bigger history will be made on bitcoin.

[AmoreJaz]

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

I tend to agree that's true, but if this kind of mindset really takes hold among investors, then I'm sure there will be major selling pressure when $50k is reached. Of course it will cause a lot of panic as people tend to sell and take profits, but holding bitcoin for a longer period of time may be better to gain maximum profits.

But however, this assumption is not wrong because people's investment plans and goals do not have to be the same. Someone might take profits even by just 10%, but expecting 300% after the halving is reasonable based on history. Of course that is my assumption, but a bigger history will be made on bitcoin.

so long you are conservative with your estimates and you are investing here what you can afford to lose, then, you don't have to worry much. because if you are staking your hard-earned savings, then, losing it will be detrimental from your pocket. up until now, no one can guarantee where the market is heading to, so even if you are a long time crypto user, you are only basing from your instincts on where this market is going, and so invest what you think you can handle to lose.

[erep]

I tend to agree that's true, but if this kind of mindset really takes hold among investors, then I'm sure there will be major selling pressure when $50k is reached. Of course it will cause a lot of panic as people tend to sell and take profits, but holding bitcoin for a longer period of time may be better to gain maximum profits.

Investor strategy is to create a long-term portfolio with a high profit target plan, some investors target 100% profit or reach $50k and they plan their next investment strategy at market correction prices, usually the market price pattern will correct after a significant increase, for example after a recovery price of $50k is reached and it is possible that the market price will stay at $46k before the next bullish run until it reaches ATH, so at the point of price correction there is an opportunity for investors to buy back and increase the investment value for the next maximum profit target.

But however, this assumption is not wrong because people's investment plans and goals do not have to be the same. Someone might take profits even by just 10%, but expecting 300% after the halving is reasonable based on history. Of course that is my assumption, but a bigger history will be made on bitcoin.

Based on the history of bitcoin prices during each halving period, there are no unreasonable price statements because history has proven that the highest price was reached $60k last year, you don't need to hesitate to state the 300% target assumption because I believe $100k is the next ATH target that has the potential to be achieved after the halving period next year.

[GbitG]

Since the beginning of this bear season Bitcoin have been very profitable than 99% of other assets in crypto space, only a few altcoins have done better than Bitcoin since the start of this bear market, but my point isn't really about the profits but how reliable Bitcoin is, sorry pal there is nothing I trust more than Bitcoin.

You are right that when the bear market started, Bitcoin was on a very low trend, and there was a real opportunity to gain profit. Meaning, those who grabbed the opportunity of Bitcoin and made it a part of their portfolio at the beginning of the bear cycle will definitely be in profit, and if they hold more and wait until Bitcoin hits ATH, then I think Bitcoin is worth thinking about. You can see a higher profit on the return of your investment. So these are the features that make Bitcoin more affordable and reliable than any other investment. He can give your investment a double, 4x, and even more profit than you think if you invest at the right time and develop the courage to hold.

Furthermore, you must develop a proper investment strategy for both the long and short term. I mean, diversify your investment under the strategy of dollar cost average (DCA). It will be able to manage risks and avoid a lower chance of losing money.

[hatshepsut93]

When you're looking at reward, you should also analyze it together with the risk. There's no guarantee that Bitcoin will even double its price. Or that it will go up at all. It might even be the first halvening when the price will fall. All we know that in the past halvenings meant bull runs, but we still don't fully understand why and how things will be in the future.

For a lot of people, guaranteed and predictable 10% growth  per year is far better than a prospect of doubling money in a year, but without any certainty.

[Ben Barubal]

     Due to the positive speculations that we read in various articles in the crypto space, the positive response average of those who believe in Bitcoin in its upcoming halving is actually increasing. And we can see somehow in different companies that we will suddenly find out that they have adapted Bitcoin as a mode of payment in their business companies like Honda and Ferari that I read here in this forum.

    So, these are just some of the reasons why others are now saving Bitcoin in their respective wallet addresses. But even so, this prediction will still remain and it is up to us whether we believe it or not.

[lionheart78]

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

People are accustomed to see Bitcoin break its ATH every 4 years, so with the current price and people assuming that Bitcoin will break its ATH and record a possible 2x or 3x of its previous ATH, many are speculating that investing with the current price will possibly yield them a 3x to 4x profit.

I am also ok with a 2x profit since it is 100% and yes it is very rare or probably won't happen if we invest outside the cryptocurrency considering that we only have to wait for a year or two.

[panganib999]

I mean that's the whole plan anyway. To at least double what you have through the halving. People expecting x3 or x4 in this economy are a little too optimistic especially considering that there's no real reason for bitcoin to increase in such a value. It's still sitting in a precarious spot where a simple issue could take it down to a measly 18k, and we have no good reason as of now to be happy and excited about the halving since for bitcoin to reach a new bull season we need the help of a pivotal crypto event along with the scarcity that the Bull run insinuates for it to really increase in value. So far we haven't gotten any of the two yet so there's no real reason for bitcoin to reach x3 or x4 as much as what people are expecting.

[Mr.right85]

With halving less than a year from now, the majority of us are speculating a major increase in price and possibly the start of another bull market after 4 years. Some are expecting to surpass the previous ATH of almost $70,000 and possibly reach $100,000. Although this scenario sounds great and all, I'm not quite confident that it'll happen in the upcoming year or so.

I can’t deny that the prices with these ATH do get ridiculously high but, how ridiculous could it be! We’ve got just about 21million Bitcoins to serve the world population and as such, valuation that counts into a ridiculous price is what we should always except but, we as well hope to archive this without a break in history with the halving and bullruns.
Don’t want to be too optimistic but, it’s really hard not to be when you’ve been putting all efforts to top up your holdings and it’s out there looking for the profits in them even when you ain’t going to withdraw.

Looking at the current ATH for bitcoin at $69k, a $100k seems achievable as it ain’t quite distanced from the performing ATH.

The current economic condition in the world isn't too promising and, in my opinion, will set back investments in general, including bonds and the stock market. I hope I'm proven wrong, though.

During the pandemic, the world economic situation was worsened as staff where been relieved of there jobs, others weren’t given much access and these created an online consciousness for most. That could be the case after the halving.

[yazher]

Basically, if you have enough funds that you can afford to lose not some funds that are saved for your essential needs, then you are recommended to take advantage of the situation because most likely you won't find such an opportunity again in the future after others like you have decided to flock on buying bitcoins in every crypto exchanges in order to get ready for another possible bull runs after bitcoin halving. You just need to think about it twice and be carried away because all we can do is suggest and speculate it's all up to you if you want to follow it.

[arabspaceship123]

Halving threads are plentiful so I've posted in some. I've written there isn't a guarantee of return before or after halving so it's all speculation there isn't a rule to guide us. I'd say if there isn't a guarantee of 3x or 4x returns there shouldn't be assumptions or speculations of doubling your investment.

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

[philipma1957]

With halving less than a year from now, the majority of us are speculating a major increase in price and possibly the start of another bull market after 4 years. Some are expecting to surpass the previous ATH of almost $70,000 and possibly reach $100,000. Although this scenario sounds great and all, I'm not quite confident that it'll happen in the upcoming year or so. The current economic condition in the world isn't too promising and, in my opinion, will set back investments in general, including bonds and the stock market. I hope I'm proven wrong, though.

However, I tend to have a more pessimistic and down-to-earth approach to this matter. Bitcoin's current price is ranging from $27,000 to $28,000 as we speak, while we will also occasionally see it as low as $25,000. With that being said, in my opinion, sometime after the halving, the scenario of Bitcoin surpassing $50,000 doesn't sound too impossible to me. Thus, if we suppose that someone purchases Bitcoin now, approximately within a year, he or she may be capable of doubling their initial investment.

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

I expect 40-50k pre ½ ing and about 121k for full bull run number.

I mine I attack differently then a hodl guy or a trader guy.

If you are in at a 30k or under price point putting in some more cash should work for you. But reality we could all wake up dead in the morning as the core of the earth could blowup with little or no warning.  So why worry.

[DapanasFruit]

Doubling one's investment within just months can only happen if one is involved with Bitcoin. Now, there can be other digital assets that can give us x10 or even x100 but they are too risky for anyone's taste so if one is still conservative in approach it is Bitcoin that can give us the best return. Admittedly though, no matter how optimistic we become with Bitcoin, there are many factors that come into play most especially the global economic and political state right now - there are many bad news which can be the reason why many people may not be looking at Bitcoin like a hot girl for someone's portfolio. Anyway, I am still hoping that we can achieve this goal - getting things doubled - by 2024 due to the halving push.

[LogitechMouse]

I respect your opinion since we have the freedom to share it here. However, I will share my opinion base on what you said.

With halving less than a year from now, the majority of us are speculating a major increase in price and possibly the start of another bull market after 4 years. Some are expecting to surpass the previous ATH of almost $70,000 and possibly reach $100,000. Although this scenario sounds great and all, I'm not quite confident that it'll happen in the upcoming year or so. The current economic condition in the world isn't too promising and, in my opinion, will set back investments in general, including bonds and the stock market. I hope I'm proven wrong, though.

Many might be expecting for it to happen, but with the halving expected to happen in April of 2024, I expect that we will start to experience major price increase at least 5 months or even more after the event, so I only expect that price increase will happen at around the 2nd half of the year. With what you said regarding economic condition, remember the pandemic in 2020? Are our economic condition good at that time? 2020 and 2021 are considered the worst years for many because of lockdowns, the virus being spread etc. but look at what the market did at that time. So I don't buy the "economic condition isn't promising" thing because the market increased in 2020 and 2021 even though we are at the considered the worst time.

However, I tend to have a more pessimistic and down-to-earth approach to this matter. Bitcoin's current price is ranging from $27,000 to $28,000 as we speak, while we will also occasionally see it as low as $25,000. With that being said, in my opinion, sometime after the halving, the scenario of Bitcoin surpassing $50,000 doesn't sound too impossible to me. Thus, if we suppose that someone purchases Bitcoin now, approximately within a year, he or she may be capable of doubling their initial investment.

Well, that's true knowing that in the past, Bitcoin's price tends to increase a few months after the halving. On the other hand, I still believe in the fact that what happened in the past might not happened in the future. You might be true that Bitcoin reaching $50,000 is possible, and we have a different approach to Bitcoin. I've seen it it twice. Bitcoin halving - wait for a few months - Bitcoin starts to increase - start of bull run however, I might be wrong though, and we might see the unexpected.

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

No worries. We are all making assumptions all our lives when it comes to crypto (or it's only me). We are all speculating all the time even though we aren't analysts.