Dump market potential?

[bangjoe]

There are some confusion that might make me a little doubtful about the development of Bitcoin prices and adoption in 2024, which we all know that we will face Halving Bitcoin as well as the ETF agreement which is the most powerful indicator in encouraging Bitcoin prices, so that many people are speculating and accused The nominal is quite fantastic in Bitcoin in the last 2 years of the current cycle.

There is a dilemma that disturbs my mind, about the wider potential of war in the region of Palestine, we witness the reactions of various countries at the end of this week in the area, and show the great power of the eastern and western blocs, which we know that America and Friends said firmly that they became a strong supporter of Israel's annexation to the Palestinian region. Conversely Russia, North Korea and neighboring Palestinians, Turkey, Afghanistan, Iran and others support Palestinian independence and are ready to be behind Palestinian troops, which all makes conflict and political tension of the power of the world's major blocks that might trigger a big war to occur if did not find a meeting point in this conflict.

From various sequences of problems and many aspects that can be associated, I become doubtful with the price development of Bitcoin which in the event of this war is enlarged, so as usual Bitcoin will experience a price decline, even though we know it is not just bitcoin that will be a victim of this conflict happen.

I do not mean to frighten or make FUD, I just want to discuss to share thoughts, but for an bitcoin intelligent investor, how do you respond to conflicts that have probability to suppress Bitcoin prices?

[Oshosondy]

From various sequences of problems and many aspects that can be associated, I become doubtful with the price development of Bitcoin which in the event of this war is enlarged, so as usual Bitcoin will experience a price decline, even though we know it is not just bitcoin that will be a victim of this conflict happen.

I do not mean to frighten or make FUD, I just want to discuss to share thoughts, but for an bitcoin intelligent investor, how do you respond to conflicts that have probability to suppress Bitcoin prices?

I wish for no war but what if there is war, what makes you think that the price of bitcoin will fall?

Some people will always see something to say about the price of bitcoin not to rise. It is good for you not to think like that because the bull run period is very near. Buy and hold bitcoin is my advise. People should not think about any war but think that the price of bitcoin will increase. I have started to DCA and if the price of bitcoin does not fall below $20000 again, I will buy more bitcoin some weeks to halving.

Some people are saying there is possibility that third world war has begun, but which I will not believe for it not to affect my bitcoin investment.


Bitcoin’s long-term investors own over 76% of all BTC for the first time

[Zaguru12]

Any war breaking out will definitely cause major problems and a prolonged one involving major countries wouldn’t be good in the face of the worlds economy, we all pray for peace.

In bitcoin perspective, the first challenge will be the energy crisis that will follow it, we all know how much of an energy needed by miners to able to mining and run there business if it becomes scarce and probably costly we might see an either see an upsurge in price of bitcoin or the reduction of miners (most especially solo miners).

The other thing is in the face of war many will actually be concerned about the currency of each nation, because economic crises like inflation and recession will be face whenever there is war and these are things that actually affect the value of fiat and as such many will be looking to take away there funds away from any fiat currency and pursuing assets that have a great store of value and I think many will push towards bitcoin as they seek solution to devaluation of fiat.

In the meantime the only plausible solution is to hold and accumulate more bitcoin, should the crisis causes any kind of price fall to bitcoin, you continue to hold.

[bangjoe]

From various sequences of problems and many aspects that can be associated, I become doubtful with the price development of Bitcoin which in the event of this war is enlarged, so as usual Bitcoin will experience a price decline, even though we know it is not just bitcoin that will be a victim of this conflict happen.

I do not mean to frighten or make FUD, I just want to discuss to share thoughts, but for an bitcoin intelligent investor, how do you respond to conflicts that have probability to suppress Bitcoin prices?

I wish for no war but what if there is war, what makes you think that the price of bitcoin will fall?

Some people will always see something to say about the price of bitcoin not to rise. It is good for you not to think like that because the bull run period is very near. Buy and hold bitcoin is my advise. People should not think about any war but think that the price of bitcoin will increase. I have started to DCA and if the price of bitcoin does not fall below $20000 again, I will buy more bitcoin some weeks to halving.

Some people are saying there is possibility that third world war has begun, but which I will not believe for it not to affect my bitcoin investment.


Bitcoin’s long-term investors own over 76% of all BTC for the first time

Yes, the pattern is what if the war occurs, I don't expect it to happen because the impact will be extraordinary.
I did not expect that we should not think about the potential risks that will occur today, unless the assets in Bitcoin are only 10% of the total wealth you have, maybe it will not have a big effect on your wealth, then how they are Store 40% -80% of Bitcoin wealth? ... What we know is that the war will deprecate the economy including risky assets.

For some people who do not get the impact of warfare occurred in their country, and Bitcoin is corrected by Kemabli, it is indeed a golden density that someone can get at that moment, including me.

But I like how you respond to my thoughts, thank you for that.

[dumbymamby]

There is no need to confuse or feel the dilemmas with the current war situations, the reaction from every country to that war, or others. We do not know what happens later and hope the war does not spread to other countries.

The Bitcoin price will develop bigger at the right time. You do not have to worry about that. Meanwhile, the war is far from your home, so you can focus on accumulating more to prepare for anything that can happen.

[taufik123]

Yes, the pattern is what if the war occurs, I don't expect it to happen because the impact will be extraordinary.
I did not expect that we should not think about the potential risks that will occur today, unless the assets in Bitcoin are only 10% of the total wealth you have, maybe it will not have a big effect on your wealth, then how they are Store 40% -80% of Bitcoin wealth? ... What we know is that the war will deprecate the economy including risky assets.
-snip-

The continued war will not be good for everyone, for economic growth, and even crypto is affected because of some of the inflation that is happening and the interest rate hikes that are being made.

The war between Russia and Ukraine even affected the price of Bitcoin or the crypto market, everything decreased.
But gradually it rose again because Bitcoin was also used as a transaction during the war.

Those who have great wealth in Bitcoin will be greatly impacted and it will be a tipping point when prices begin to fall as the war continues.
We all hope of course that the war will end soon and there will be peace.

[Falconer]

I do not mean to frighten or make FUD, I just want to discuss to share thoughts, but for an bitcoin intelligent investor, how do you respond to conflicts that have probability to suppress Bitcoin prices?

Of course there are concerns about the impact of the world situation which is starting to become conducive, but as long as you invest an amount you can afford to lose, then why should you worry too much. If today you can afford to invest only $100k, then don't put more money into it just because you have it. The risk of falling prices due to politics, economics and war cannot be avoided, but the best strategy to grow from this situation is to accumulate for a long-term investment plan.

Have a good risk tolerance and plan things well and thoughtfully. Halving can help the demand and price of bitcoin grow, but FUD can prevent the market from becoming bullish. Even if you don't really want to spread FUD, but discussions like this are just concerns that can likely be considered very bearish.

[serjent05]

I think these countries that announce support will be hesitant to involve their country and citizens.  They might send some troops if things escalate but I doubt these countries will declare an all-out war against each other.  Most of these countries can do is to send reinforcement and supplies to a limited extent.  So it is more possible that the only conflict that will heighten is between Israel and the surrounding countries.

There is always a negative effect of war on the economy so the market dump in Bitcoin is possible but I don't think it will go to the extent of a Bitcoin price crash.  If there is, it will be temporary and Bitcoin will recover because there is this other part of the world that continues to do normal activities despite the war on the other side of the world.

[jeraldskie11]

Sometimes, when we see the chart as if there is not enough volume to the upside there is bad news that happens afterwards. That's what I usually notice when the market is in the consolidation stage, meaning the market is undecided. Those disasters, can give a negative impression to people that will help us to decide into something like crypto, and it's also true in forex. However, these are not new events so there is not much change in the market. But if this war continues, it is possible that the price of Bitcoin will fall. But for me, I'm very positive that what will happen to Bitcoin is a minor dump, and it won't be the same as before it was volatile so I'm not worried.

[hatshepsut93]

We already had a global pandemic that was far worse for Bitcoin than some global tensions, because it actually affected the economy and people's ability to invest. And still Bitcoin performed remarkably well in 2020 and 2021.

And in general there's no strong correlation between Bitcoin price and some global events. Bitcoin changes its price all the time and people try to explain it my looking at the current news, but if you make a historical analysis, you will see that they don't really affect the price.

[GreatArkansas]

(......)
Some people are saying there is possibility that third world war has begun, but which I will not believe for it not to affect my bitcoin investment.

This will not happen anymore, that's for my own opinion.
And just in case it happens, Bitcoin will not get affected or it will dump. As you can see, Bitcoin is a worldwide acceptable currency, so I can assume that no dumping effect on it because no one will attack Bitcoin, Bitcoin for sure will be just used by the majority.

[arabspaceship123]

The biggest conflict comes when halving's going to occur it's when ppl jump to buy like that's the only way opportunity they’ll have for making profits. If they don’t know what they’re doing with overspending they’ll damage themselves if Bitcoin doesn’t climb.

I do not mean to frighten or make FUD, I just want to discuss to share thoughts, but for an bitcoin intelligent investor, how do you respond to conflicts that have probability to suppress Bitcoin prices?

[Dave1]

We already had a global pandemic that was far worse for Bitcoin than some global tensions, because it actually affected the economy and people's ability to invest. And still Bitcoin performed remarkably well in 2020 and 2021.

And in general there's no strong correlation between Bitcoin price and some global events. Bitcoin changes its price all the time and people try to explain it my looking at the current news, but if you make a historical analysis, you will see that they don't really affect the price.

This is also what I'm thinking, the global pandemic was worst in my opinion, every country is isolated and the economy suffers and up to this day, some of them haven't recovered yet.

And we are still standing though, bitcoin had it's halving in the pandemic, but it wasn't affected and it's like business as usual for us. So that is already a big test that we passed with flying colours. And then we have the Ukrainian war in the beginning of this year and yet the effects are minimal. So it's ok to be paranoid on the geo-political happenings in the world like war, but I don't think that bitcoin will be affected in general.

[NewRanger]

The biggest conflict comes when halving's going to occur it's when ppl jump to buy like that's the only way opportunity they’ll have for making profits. If they don’t know what they’re doing with overspending they’ll damage themselves if Bitcoin doesn’t climb.

I do not mean to frighten or make FUD, I just want to discuss to share thoughts, but for an bitcoin intelligent investor, how do you respond to conflicts that have probability to suppress Bitcoin prices?

There is concern that if they don't buy now, they will miss out on an opportunity. For relevant and common reasons why they come in and buy Bitcoin one of them is when they see the price increase.

If the price of Bitcoin goes down or doesn't experience significant changes after the halving, this could potentially result in losses, but if the price is still reasonable and still worth maintaining, I think this is no problem and there's no need to worry, especially for BTC. For other coins, I think it might be beyond my expectations.

Yes. I also see that this leads as you said above, causing many investors and traders to be very reactive to the halving event, but usually prices rise as demand increases.

[Strongkored]

I think that support from countries to countries that are at war will not exceed their ability to help and that is only in the form of weapons and food and other countries are very likely not to be directly involved in the war.
However, in my opinion, the wars that occur often make no sense in being linked to Bitcoin because Bitcoin's scale with the global economy is not large, so the fear that is spread among Bitcoin owners is only to take advantage of certain parties. If you believe that Bitcoin will continue to follow its usual four-year cycle then ignore all the news wars but usually the ones who worry about Bitcoin are those who don't own it because those who own Bitcoin will maintain optimism without caring about other people's views about what might happen to Bitcoin because the current war is not as big in scale as imagined and only the media always exaggerates it.

[michellee]

We can only hope that the war will not impact Bitcoin. However, in reality, war impacts the countries around the war. And if there is an impact on Bitcoin, there may be a downturn but we don't expect the downturn to be too deep.

But we have seen how Bitcoin has traveled so far. We already know that many factors could have caused the decline that occurred in Bitcoin. And maybe there will be another decline later, but it won't be as big as the previous one. But if it happens again, people must be prepared and not panic so the price does not fall further.

The important thing is that if there is another decline, we must prepare ourselves to be able to buy Bitcoin at low prices. Rather than regretting it because we were late in buying Bitcoin, we should remain alert to the situation in the market. And prepare money to buy more Bitcoin.

[Yamane_Keto]

We cannot base analyzes on something that has not happened, and we cannot predict its effects because we do not know to what extent it may affect the economy and whether its effect on the economy will affect Bitcoin.
Bitcoin did not show high sensitivity to global events and variables, and even these variables were part of the historical pattern of Bitcoin cycles, so Bitcoin is even less affected by events not related to cryptocurrencies.

I read this article a while ago, titled The effect of political and economic uncertainty on the cryptocurrency market, and its summary says:

find that the cryptocurrency market can serve as a strong hedge against geopolitical risks in most cases, but it could be considered a weak hedge and safe haven against economic policy uncertainty during a bull market.

Our problem is more with economic policy uncertainty during a bull market than with geopolitical risks.

Link of Scientific paper for those who want to read: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1544612320301707

[Reatim]

We can only hope that the war will not impact Bitcoin. However, in reality, war impacts the countries around the war. And if there is an impact on Bitcoin, there may be a downturn but we don't expect the downturn to be too deep.

well , if we understand how helpful Bitcoin is than Fiat or Gold in time of war then price will not down that deep for sure.
though war time will shutdown internet and the phase so this will take time to be used but for holding is better.

But we have seen how Bitcoin has traveled so far. We already know that many factors could have caused the decline that occurred in Bitcoin. And maybe there will be another decline later, but it won't be as big as the previous one. But if it happens again, people must be prepared and not panic so the price does not fall further.

decline will come as we are heading to Halving day that we already knew the impact, mostly dumped bad before that day or even the exact day,
because the increase will come soon.

The important thing is that if there is another decline, we must prepare ourselves to be able to buy Bitcoin at low prices. Rather than regretting it because we were late in buying Bitcoin, we should remain alert to the situation in the market. And prepare money to buy more Bitcoin.

right , take the advantage to buy when there is a deep , instead of panicking take that as advantage ..

[freedomgo]

From various sequences of problems and many aspects that can be associated, I become doubtful with the price development of Bitcoin which in the event of this war is enlarged, so as usual Bitcoin will experience a price decline, even though we know it is not just bitcoin that will be a victim of this conflict happen.

No matter what's going on—be it bad news or good news—it won't significantly impact Bitcoin as long as it's not in a bull run. We've weathered worse problems in the past, and Bitcoin has maintained a stable price. Even during the height of the pandemic, Bitcoin's price and the market remained surprisingly stable.

You should have confidence in Bitcoin. It has been declared "dead" many times, yet it keeps rising. If it does experience a dip, it's often due to manipulation, and its price will eventually return to stability. Don't let FUD overshadow the current bullish sentiment. Have you been feeling the bullish sentiment lately?

[Marvell1]

I think that support from countries to countries that are at war will not exceed their ability to help and that is only in the form of weapons and food and other countries are very likely not to be directly involved in the war.
However, in my opinion, the wars that occur often make no sense in being linked to Bitcoin because Bitcoin's scale with the global economy is not large, so the fear that is spread among Bitcoin owners is only to take advantage of certain parties. If you believe that Bitcoin will continue to follow its usual four-year cycle then ignore all the news wars but usually the ones who worry about Bitcoin are those who don't own it because those who own Bitcoin will maintain optimism without caring about other people's views about what might happen to Bitcoin because the current war is not as big in scale as imagined and only the media always exaggerates it.

I think bitcoin is also part of the world economy so if there is a war, just destabilizing the world economy will definitely affect bitcoin. That's just like when the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out, every market panicked and bitcoin was not immune. I still hope the 4-year cycle will repeat, but we need to note that, in previous cycles, we did not encounter crises, wars or inflation like today. So it's hard to be sure that everything will stay the same and nothing will change. Bitcoin is getting bigger and more popular, so to say that it is not tied to the economy is not entirely true.

The current war has not caused too much instability, but with the supporting parties also being strongly divided, I fear the war will spread and become more serious. But let's hope the war ends soon because it brings no benefit to the world.