2023-10-20 Barrons - A Bitcoin ETF Looks Inevitable. Here’s the Playbook

[cr1776]

"A Bitcoin exchange-traded fund seems all but sure to come on the market within the next few months. Be careful in chasing gains the market has likely already priced in.  On Friday, the Securities and Exchange Commission declined to appeal a recent loss in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. In that case, a panel of judges unanimously concluded that the SEC erred in rejecting Grayscale Investments’ bid to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ticker: GBTC) into an exchange-traded fund.  ...  "

 
https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-etf-grayscale-how-invest-5e6b7393

I believe they are correct about the inevitability of a BTC ETF.  However, "priced in"?  Perhaps in the short term it is priced in, but in the long term that seems very doubtful.  The question is: what is the absolute demand for bitcoin from people who don't want to open an account at an exchange or hold their own coins?  Just in my experience with people, people are often lazy.  If they can buy it at Schwab, Vanguard, Fidelity, Merrill, eTrade etc in their brokerage or IRA that makes it much easier and less intimidating.  

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[Kakmakr]

I think this scenario are very similar to the affect that the Halving has on the Bitcoin price. By the time when the actual Halving happens, most of the price increase has already been "priced in" ...because people knew that the event would happen.

So, the ETF approval will have the same affect... where the perception will be that it will be approved and people will buy early to get cheaper coins, before the price increase. 

[cr1776]

I think this scenario are very similar to the affect that the Halving has on the Bitcoin price. By the time when the actual Halving happens, most of the price increase has already been "priced in" ...because people knew that the event would happen.

So, the ETF approval will have the same affect... where the perception will be that it will be approved and people will buy early to get cheaper coins, before the price increase. 

Have the prices really already been priced in at the halving?  I would argue now.  Perhaps in the very short term you could consider that (e.g. 1-3 months?) but 9-12 months later it seems now.  :-)

And I agree that the impact of the ETF approval may be priced in, but the impact of the ETF investments over time probably hasn't. 

Who knows for sure though....ask me in 5 years. lol
:-)