Have we seen the lowest low of this bear market?

[Z-tight]

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

If we are to be objective, nobody knows what to expect, we go by what has happened in previous cycles in order to predict what the movement this time could look like, take note that in these previous cycles there was no BTC spot etf, yet BTC price pumped some months after the halving, so i expect that to happem again. A lot of people i talk with says that a spot etf approval is now a matter of when and not if, if it is true and we get an approval, then we would see how the market would react, i can't predict that scenario because it is happening for the first time.

Nevertheless, i don't think we're about to see world war 3, nobody wants such to happen and so i doubt that external forces would interfere with physical support, both in the war in the middle east and the one in Ukraine.

[1714633954]

1714633954

[michellee]

We already saw the lowest price of Bitcoin this year at $15k and now, with the price of Bitcoin rising at $34k, it looks like we will not see a price of $15k again. But if the situation worsens again, we may see the price drop below $30k. But let's hope that doesn't happen.

And if a Bitcoin ETF is approved, it could be a big boost for Bitcoin price increases. It could jump straight to $ 40k- $ 50k or even $60k. Anything can happen, especially next year there is a halving moment that will occur. And many analysts also say that Bitcoin price could rise very high, perhaps above $100k-$150k.

I wasn't thinking about a World War III scenario. It fell so far short of my expectations and I really hope that doesn't happen. It is the people who will suffer from World War III. We have seen what happened with World War II, when technology was not as advanced as today. If that happens shortly, it will destroy half of the earth.

[Honyek]

l think that we have seen the lowest price of bitcoin for now, except unexpected happened. Bitcoin price will continue to go up after a little fluctuation. l think the price will get up to $40, 000 before the end of the year considering  the bitcoin situation. All in all, l think it is the right time for anyone who wants to make reasonable profit during the bull run, to make an investment, especially, long-term investment.

[posi]

Going back to OP , we have gone long time from that 10k below price so sorry if you did not manage to accumulate from those days because surely you are facing a high value purchase now.

Bitcoin is trading at $34k and if compared to the previous ATH, the price is still heavily discounted, so it's still a good time to buy. Those who had the opportunity to buy bitcoin for under $20k or $10k but if they didn't buy, they should regret it. But for those new to the market, the price of $34k is not high if they have a selling goal of $100k or $200k in the future. Therefore, the current bitcoin price is not too high and people should start accumulating now if they do not want to continue to regret more in the future.

[WeThePe0ple]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

I know $50k can be achieved with bitcoin but due to its highly volatility, it will be uncertain when will bitcoin hit that price. Even if we say bitcoin etf will soon to be approved by SEC, but I can't give fixed amount as to how high bitcoin will reach that time. Although  a lot of bitcoin analysts are now very optimistic about the future price of bitcoin, but we all know no one holds the future of bitcoin even Satoshi himself, so all these predictions will remain to be predictions until they're proven true. But to be honest, for me I guess $50k for this year is still impossible to achieve, but it will be highly possible right after the bitcoin halving is over.

I recently made a thread regarding the $50,000 mark and the possibilities of surpassing it. In my opinion, Bitcoin won't face any major difficulties surpassing it within the upcoming year, certainly not for 2023, unless it's approved by Blackrock, but even then, it looks too optimistic for the two months that are left.

Personally, I don't think we'll see any major crashes below $25,000 in the upcoming period unless a major event occurs. Being denied the right to be listed as an ETF by Blackrock is certainly one of them, but I don't believe that its effects will last forever, even though it's unlikely to. Who knows, a new ATH might be closer than we think.

I personally believe that this major event will be world war III, which is slowly unfolding right now. And subsequently the collapse of the current monetary system.

Also keep in mind that banks and governments want to launch their CBDC's and bitcoin is a threat to it.

I am very convinced all of these things but I have no idea how big of an impact they will have on the market value of BTC, in the short run and in the long run.

[legendbtc]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

I know $50k can be achieved with bitcoin but due to its highly volatility, it will be uncertain when will bitcoin hit that price. Even if we say bitcoin etf will soon to be approved by SEC, but I can't give fixed amount as to how high bitcoin will reach that time. Although  a lot of bitcoin analysts are now very optimistic about the future price of bitcoin, but we all know no one holds the future of bitcoin even Satoshi himself, so all these predictions will remain to be predictions until they're proven true. But to be honest, for me I guess $50k for this year is still impossible to achieve, but it will be highly possible right after the bitcoin halving is over.

I recently made a thread regarding the $50,000 mark and the possibilities of surpassing it. In my opinion, Bitcoin won't face any major difficulties surpassing it within the upcoming year, certainly not for 2023, unless it's approved by Blackrock, but even then, it looks too optimistic for the two months that are left.

Personally, I don't think we'll see any major crashes below $25,000 in the upcoming period unless a major event occurs. Being denied the right to be listed as an ETF by Blackrock is certainly one of them, but I don't believe that its effects will last forever, even though it's unlikely to. Who knows, a new ATH might be closer than we think.

I personally believe that this major event will be world war III, which is slowly unfolding right now. And subsequently the collapse of the current monetary system.

Also keep in mind that banks and governments want to launch their CBDC's and bitcoin is a threat to it.

I am very convinced all of these things but I have no idea how big of an impact they will have on the market value of BTC, in the short run and in the long run.

As many others have commented, with the current two wars unlikely to have a major impact on creating a third world war, the major powers will never let that happen. The great powers know that if World War 3 happens, it will take hundreds of years for them to have things like today. They wouldn't be stupid enough to let their research and achievements disappear and have to rebuild from scratch.

The launch of CBDC has nothing to do with bitcoin, CBDC is a currency and bitcoin is an asset, how could bitcoin threaten CBDCs?

[Ultegra134]

I personally believe that this major event will be world war III, which is slowly unfolding right now. And subsequently the collapse of the current monetary system.

Also keep in mind that banks and governments want to launch their CBDC's and bitcoin is a threat to it.

I am very convinced all of these things but I have no idea how big of an impact they will have on the market value of BTC, in the short run and in the long run.

I think Bitcoin will be the least of our worries if WW3 breaks out. Unfortunately, there are currently way too many active conflicts, and everyone has focused on Israel and Palestine, and we've completely forgotten what happens in Ukraine. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia advanced even further, since the interest and the funding stem from the Middle East. I'm hoping that it settles down soon, because otherwise we'd start suffering the consequences of these wars soon enough.

As many others have commented, with the current two wars unlikely to have a major impact on creating a third world war, the major powers will never let that happen. The great powers know that if World War 3 happens, it will take hundreds of years for them to have things like today. They wouldn't be stupid enough to let their research and achievements disappear and have to rebuild from scratch.

The launch of CBDC has nothing to do with bitcoin, CBDC is a currency and bitcoin is an asset, how could bitcoin threaten CBDCs?

Hopefully yes, I don't believe that this will turn into another world war. We've learned enough from the previous wars, and I'm hoping that we can prevent another one, which, with current technology, would be disastrous for all of mankind.

[kryptqnick]

I don't listen to any of the so-called experts because they make mistakes all the time, and because it's simply impossible to make rational guesses about Bitcoin price and whether the bottom has been reached. It feels like Bitcoin has moved past the bottom point, and over time, the bottom seems to be at a higher price point, so I don't expect a return to the previous one.
Of course, though, it depends on global events. If something like a full-on WWIII hits the world, as the op hypothesizes, I think we can see a lower bottom time than right now, and possibly even the end of relevance of cryptos if that war gets nuclear and basically destroys human civilization as we know it. But in that case, Bitcoin will be the least of our worries.

[Crypt0Gore]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

You can listen to others but not that Gareth Soloway, that man knows nothing about crypto market and everything he says are always over exaggerated, do not take him seriously, in 2019 I was mislead by listening to all these crypto popular figures, John Mcafee was one of them, and there is also others too, I planned to start buying only when they claimed it right time to start buying, and I missed every good opportunities.

Instead of following these people it's better to trust your DCA skills only, start buying when the market is in red and DCA across the months in the bear market and only stop when the bull market starts, and start taking your profits when it's good enough for you, forget all crypto influencers either small or big, they are all saying and doing what they like, they are also investors just like you and they will be waiting to dump on those who are clueless.

Finally, World War isn't ever going to happen, there were greater regrets in the last world wars and honestly it was a pointless war, it's not worth it, I don't believe that another world war will ever happen again, so let's hope for a better future and stop thinking about something that will never happen.

Stay Positive.

[thecodebear]

Bear market ended back in March. So yeah, we are a long ways from the bottom of the bear market. It isn't coming back.


Bitcoin typically spends roughly a year crashing, which it did in 2022.

Then Bitcoin typically spends half a year, give or take a few months, at the bottom of the market, the large "bottom" of the bear market was $15k-$25k, because resistance was at $25k, though there was a sort of sub-basement to the bottom (that $15k-$17k range) that occurred as a result of the FTX collapse, and that only lasted what like 2 months. Once Bitcoin broke past $25k in March the bear market was over.

Then, after the bear market what we typically see is the price shoot up for a bit and then the hype of the bear market being over fades and the price tends to go sideways or slightly down for about half a year. This is the period we just got through from mid-April to mid-October (6 months exactly) when the price lulled between $25k and $31k.

Then Bitcoin breaks out of that long sideways lull. This is what happened these past two weeks. We are now in the heading-for-the-halving phase in which we should see Bitcoin gradually chop its way upward. It'll go up/down/sideways, but overall up for probably roughly the 12 months until the post-halving boom starts hitting as hype and FOMO builds into the next bull run. Of course firm continued rejections of all ETF applications, acceptance of an ETF application, or major negative or positive US regulatory or legislative action toward the industry could cause big negative or positive ways during this time.




The chance that we'd see lower lows than the bear market stopped being reasonably possible all the way back in January when Bitcoin broke out of the FTX sub-basement of the bottom of the bear market. It's end of october now, over 10 months later, honestly no reason to be asking this question at this point. And by mid-march when Bitcoin broke out of the bottom of the market in general, when it broke out over $25k, that ended any remote possibility of revisiting the bottom of the market, let alone going lower than it.

Anyone the past 6 months who has been talking about the bear market starting over again and Bitcoin dipping back to the bear market lows or even lower is peddling FUD and nonsense at you. Ignore these people entirely. These are the sorts of people who say Bitcoin is going to zero and it will always crash more and any uptick in price is bitcoin's last hurrah before it ultimately crashes for good.

Get to know how the market cycles work so you aren't worrying about new lows 6 months after the bear market ended and 10 months after we left those lows behind for good. Unless we get a crash under $30k in the coming weeks (before Bitcoin makes its next move up) Bitcoin will never see under $30k again. Worrying about $15k and under is pure fictional thinking.

[pixie85]

I personally believe that this major event will be world war III, which is slowly unfolding right now. And subsequently the collapse of the current monetary system.

I don't see a WW3 brewing. Do you think that Russia would be stupid enough to attack NATO? There would be no winners of such war with so many nuclear submarines around the world.
We've reached a situation where no country will risk a global nuclear war. The only ones stupid enough to do it would be jihadists, which is why the West is limiting their access to nukes.

Also keep in mind that banks and governments want to launch their CBDC's and bitcoin is a threat to it.

People don't want CBDC. If they're forced to abandon fiat money and use CBDC they will turn to bitcoin and if all fails they'll turn against the government.

I am very convinced all of these things but I have no idea how big of an impact they will have on the market value of BTC, in the short run and in the long run.

If there really is another world war you'll have more things to worry about than bitcoin, like how to get clean water and protect yourself from radiation.

[Fatunad]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

As long we arent that still on halving period then all the possibilities of that bottom price could really still happen. We dont know if that 15k is already the bottom but since we are fast approaching on halving season then
it is likely that we are already able to hit that bottom and making this gradual increase in price but everything would really be still vary because there's still tons of things that could happen along the way while we are really that sailing on or hovering with the market which it could really make out such impact and might really having that last crash before the bull season. We dont know if it could actually happen on this cycle or not
yet there's no way on telling if it would be..

If you are really that having those hunches and could really have that risks taking then you could really be able to wait up for that dump but ofcourse it cant really be denied
that you would really be having those kind of doubts and thinking that what if this is the price bottom? There's no one could be able to tell and this is where
this market is really that truly unpredictable.

[philipma1957]

Most likely yes, and although some people like to speculate on extraordinary events affecting the price, I prefer to go on the basis of what is most likely. At the point of the cycle we are at and the recent price trend the most normal thing is that we do not return to sub $20K levels, but rather the opposite. Could some event as happened in its day with COVID-19 cause such a fall? Yes, but I do not rely on what I cannot predict. And in the case of wars, there is no direct relationship that indicates that they necessarily affect the market up or down.

If the op did not buy any coin during the 15-20k slot last fall he fucked up bigly.

He even got under 19k this year. So he had two solid shot to buy at 70% plus discounts from the ath.

Now he is hoping for a third shot a corn under 20k or better yet under 10k.

The op had a serious fail in judgement. I am sorry for his poor decision   processes.

Following touts on tv or the internet is not the way to go.

[EFS]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

First time I've heard Datadash here, if they don't mention it anymore probably they don't believe in that price. After the 30k+ jump it's normal for people not to talk about declines. I think we've already seen the lowest point long time ago. I'm not saying there will only be an increase from now on, but I see the possibility of a new bottom as very slim.

About World War 3 scenario, let's hope for the best. There may be regional wars, but I don't think there will be a world war. Humanity has a lot to lose in this war. In that kind of situation Bitcoin or money is not the first thing we have to think about.

[_BlackStar]

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

$150K or $1M doesn't matter if the whole world is more active in making bitcoin its best investment. After all, we cannot avoid volatility that makes the price of bitcoin correct instead of just expecting an increase. ETFs can make bitcoin gain high interest from various groups - in fact I am very sure that some people who are anti-bitcoin will change their attitude after the ETF is approved.

The impact of war is always negative in the eyes of humanity - especially as thousands of innocent souls die because of war. War can affect the bitcoin market - as well as the stock market, but at the moment we never know what will happen so you have to have a way to minimize your own losses if the market becomes unprofitable.

[terrific]

If they're saying $50k could be possible for this year. Then it's possible that we're going to see more for the bull run.
A lower low hasn't been seen and it's unlikely anymore because it has to beat the low price of $3k from 2018.
These speculations can be said to still have the possibility but having the outlook of how it looks like, very unlikely.

[Cookdata]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

I want to tell you something for free, I believe you do hear the statement that says do as I say but don't do as I do. Now, it's the complete opposite you should do. Because people say bitcoin price will go to 10k, you should never believe them, is like saying bitcoin price will go to 500k and you want to believe that and then buy bitcoin in anticipation for that. Clearly, this guys are market analyst and they say based on how they feel about the market, it's speculations and you should never judge base on their say.

I can also see that you want to predict the future price because you seen or read somewhere that Blackrock is anticipating for Bitcoin spot ETF, now what are yiu going to do if the ETF turn down and never approved by SEC, will still stomach it and hold or you are going to sell and live bitcoin?

It's simple except you want to stress yourself over nothing. But bitcoin whenever you see a retracement because that $10k you think will happen might never happen, maybe not now because the market has gain another momentum and has left that November time when it was crashing and calling for help, now it seems a single drop is been cathch sharply by another buyer. You can do DCA when the price drop or just buy and hold but if you are expecting anyone to tell you future price of bitcoin, you will be disappointed.

[Kelvinid]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

You can listen to them but never think of believing them either. These two people and many other influencers are just speculators who are grabbing attention from their false market speculations. Don't give them a reason to believe because they are not controlling the market nor seeing what to happen next.

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

All of these have little to no impact on the market. I couldn't think about WW III, we're peace lovers.
We can witness corrections and pumps as it was natural in crypto but pointing out that these will be the reason (war and ETF approval) that is somewhat a debate.

[BitDane]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

There is nothing wrong with listening to people who claim to know much about the crypto space. But I doubt if anyone can predict the price of Bitcoin accurately. All we can do is speculate based on our view of the current or future global economic outlook.

I agree that it is ok to listen to the analysts but we should always verify their predictions with other analysts and our own interpretation of the current market.  Having many good references is a good thing since we can have the pros and cons of the situation and it is up to us what to come out of those analysis and predictions.

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

Refusal to approve Bitcoin spot ETF and the escalation of the war between Hamas and Israel to other parts of the world will not be favorable to the Bitcoin space. Another war will affect the global economy which will in turn harm the Bitcoin market. But an escalation of this war is unlikely.

Obviously, rejection of  ETF means a bearish sentiment while war if not worldwide can be bullish for Bitcoin because people might find ways to have their assets converted to a more safer one and Bitcoin is one of the best choice.

[Woodie]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

For all I know, is that these guys have swallowed their words one too many times and will keep making their wild guess as these predictions are there just to try and help them remain relevant, otherwise at the end of the day these are predictions that can or cannot happen as it's always a probable chance!

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?

If there is something I like about Bitcoin when it comes to highly anticipated events, they never disappoint when it comes to price soaring and an ETF approval could potentially go for the sky, a new all time high (ATH)

And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

This war does threaten doing business in person and for people that don't want the hassle of carrying valuables or cash...Bitcoin is definitely the way to go especially with the current events of war easily make crypto bullish.