Have we seen the lowest low of this bear market?

[krishnaverma]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

In the long run, these price movement do not matter. I am investing only for long term. I had been investing since the start of Bitcoin and also made decent returns with some sales. But most of my funds are now invested for long term. Because I believe that the price of Bitcoin can reach even upto a million per unit.

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[jasonjm]

It is predicted that the market is still in the bear phase, and the correction is not over yet. The chances are that in the coming weeks or months, we will see a sub $20k dip before the bull takeover. These small price rallies are just to attract more investors because whales are looking for exit liquidity.
War might not affect the price of bitcoin at this moment until the USA is directly involved in it, and there are no chances of the USA doing this as the USA is currently dealing with certain economic challenges.

[Outhue]

What we've seen after FTX, for me, was the bottom. I know bitcoin is always unpredictable and it does exactly the same opposite of what everybody is expecting but right now, between the ETFs and the halving, I really struggle to see how it could go below $15-16k again, we're talking about losing more than 50% from the current value. Maybe we'll go down again to $25-28k, maybe even a little lower, but below $20k I don't know, I don't want to say it's impossible but almost.

Black swan events like Terra and FTX don't usually occur and it's bad to have FTX fiasco only a few months after Terra fiasco. These two fiascos mostly dump Bitcoin to its bottom of the long lasting bear market. I agree with you that low price after FTX fiasco is like a bottom of this bear market already.

I still open with scenario of at least one black swan event or just massive fud to dump Bitcoin market like in 2020 we had it before the halving. I don't know what will be a next tool for market maker to dump the market in first quarter of 2024 before the halving. Because black swan event like Covid-19 which was announced in March 2020 by WHO is very barely seen.

Don't depend on that 2020 black swan event, I am not saying it can't happen but this nonsense started in 2020, it was never like that in 2016 halving, so there is nothing saying that something like that will happen again, but it's smart to be prepared for anything, I still strongly believe that 15k was the bottom and those who held their money waiting for 10k have missed the both already, I don't see anything changing this again, the worst that could maybe happen is we requesting the base once more, and that's if something bad happens in 2024.

Every predictors of Bitcoin are also investors that's why no one should trust anyone in this crypto space, they will all be looking forward to take their profits too, so they don't want every human on earth to have the same goal as theirs, while everyone is focusing on 200k Bitcoin, some are pointing at 150k but these people are predicting over 200k, they are setting traps for people, to keep holding their Bitcoin while they take their profits.

Right now I am less active on my DCA into Bitcoin because I believe it's time to slow down, every October and November are always Bullish time for Bitcoin, so I want to keep storing some stable coin and wait for good pullback, maybe early 2024, but I don't expect a big dump anymore, I think FTX and Luna crash was the best buying opportunity that majority of people took for granted.

[Dickiy]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

In the long run, these price movement do not matter. I am investing only for long term. I had been investing since the start of Bitcoin and also made decent returns with some sales. But most of my funds are now invested for long term. Because I believe that the price of Bitcoin can reach even upto a million per unit.

If you are an investor who likes long-term planning or fundamentals then say some price movements that are currently surprising may not be too influential, because it cannot be predicted whether in the next few years the price will still be below or even jump higher than and beyond your expectations.

This method is indeed quite safe to do but certainly you remain firm on your long-term period, do not be easily affected by significant bearish conditions that might make you disturbed or worried to continue, and also yes I hope you use a budget that will not be disturbed by your real needs, you must be able to focus on carrying out the planning that you think is best. Because it is not uncommon for some of those who end up failing in their long-term planning because they are worried and not sure that in the next few years bitcoin will recover and increase significantly to reach a new ATH, patience and also consistency in doing HODL is the key.

[KiaKia]

Do you plan to bet that we haven't seen the lowest price for Bitcoin already? I believe this will cost you a lot than anything, you don't have to wait for dips before you can start buying Bitcoin because nobody knows what will happen tomorrow, apart from the past histories of Bitcoin action, what if this time around is different? What if this is the beginning of the Bull market already?

See? There are too many concerns about the Bitcoin price action and I don't like getting involve in such worrisome thing, instead I believe it's better we keep using dollar cosy averaging, either it's back to 40k by next month of November or it dump to 20k it shouldn't matter to you, stay focused on your small purchases.

If the dip comes will you still be able to afford DCAing? This is the question you should keep asking yourself, fight this battle in the bear market and start relaxing once the halving as far gone, it will be the beginning of a new chapter in your life, your sound of victory.

[Gozie51]

War might not affect the price of bitcoin at this moment until the USA is directly involved in it, and there are no chances of the USA doing this as the USA is currently dealing with certain economic challenges.

On the contrary I think you should brace up for the upcoming rally just incase the US finally through themselves into the war because they have repeatedly said they would support isreal if it happens that things get out of hand for them. So maybe the price surge is yet to happen because US is still by the side but if they do, you should expect probably printing of money and that could increase inflation maybe slightly and more people would want to hedge their fiat in btc and that means more increase for demand making hodlers to determine the price and of which you know hodlers like increased profit.

[Wend]

War might not affect the price of bitcoin at this moment until the USA is directly involved in it, and there are no chances of the USA doing this as the USA is currently dealing with certain economic challenges.

On the contrary I think you should brace up for the upcoming rally just incase the US finally through themselves into the war because they have repeatedly said they would support isreal if it happens that things get out of hand for them. So maybe the price surge is yet to happen because US is still by the side but if they do, you should expect probably printing of money and that could increase inflation maybe slightly and more people would want to hedge their fiat in btc and that means more increase for demand making hodlers to determine the price and of which you know hodlers like increased profit.

Don't forget that tensions between Taiwan and China are also very tense and conflicts can happen at any time. The United States is facing a series of challenges and directly participating in any war would not be in their interest, they would not do it, IMO.

Rising inflation I don't think will benefit bitcoin. I mean, look at what happened last year when inflation was at its peak, bitcoin was dumped pretty heavily. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset, it is not a safe haven so whether people choose it or not is not guaranteed.

[VasilyS]

Despite the general negative trends, there are a number of prerequisites that determine the high probability of an increase in the price of Bitcoin. A very important factor is the upcoming Bitcoin halving (approximately April 20, 2024, block number 840000). It seems to me, around March-April 2024, the price of Bitcoin will most likely begin to rise. It is highly likely that the previous peak (65000 USD) will be passed.

[kro55]

It is predicted that the market is still in the bear phase, and the correction is not over yet. The chances are that in the coming weeks or months, we will see a sub $20k dip before the bull takeover. These small price rallies are just to attract more investors because whales are looking for exit liquidity.
War might not affect the price of bitcoin at this moment until the USA is directly involved in it, and there are no chances of the USA doing this as the USA is currently dealing with certain economic challenges.

There is no certainty what you say will happen, I have seen many people make similar predictions as you. Many people thought bitcoin would drop to $20k and then start rising but it eventually rose to $34k and is showing signs of breaking $35k, if you check the chart now. I don't know what will happen next, but those who are suspecting this is a trap and thinking bitcoin will soon drop to $20k, one thing I know is that they regret not buying bitcoin when it costs 26k$.

[Wiwo]

We are far from ever going to see such massive sell out in the bitcoin market at all times because the 10k price is far gone as long as the bitcoin price correction is concerned,  bitcoin is now too expensive for that price to ever happen again and we have to accept that fact along the line,  and hoping to see that we can at least have some few base level market achievement at some point and in as much as that be it we have to stay active to always take advantage of any price discount drop that can happen.

We may not see such as low as $20k which is what we expected after the FTX market attack and several others.

[Casdinyard]

There are speculations stating that the price could go for as low as 10k or even 9k this time around, as no real support is available at least within the current price points as well as projected price points that bitcoin will be in in the next few months. Not to mention that historically, bitcoin has this slingshot mechanism where it suffers major drawbacks first before it actually propels itself upwards, just like what happened in the first 3 halvings that came before this one. In any case, one thing's for sure, as long as the net amount of bitcoin enthusiasts who held strong remain the same, bitcoin has a pretty nice chance of at least reaching the 60k valuation that we were able to enjoy 3 years ago, perhaps even higher than that but that's a little too optimistic.

[shield132]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

I think we have seen the lowest low of this bear market and it was 15476 USD, I get that price from Binance, it was in 2022/11/21. I would say there was a chance of seeing lowest low of this bear market before halving but after the involment of BlackRock, I don't think that's going to happen. We will have a stable price between 30K and 40K and then there will be a huge rise after halving.

And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

World War III is a bearish scenario. Who is going to buy bitcoin when their smartphones, computers, furnitures, savings and houses are getting destroyed and their siblings are dying? No one will think about investments in World War III. Probably Pharma Business owners and military equipment manufacturers will benefit the most and that's all.

[danadc]

In these times yes, we may have seen it, but I believe that this is not the case now, because the market when bitocin reached $3k was something that everyone approved of before purchasing, because it took some time to rise, what I I can think that it will not reach those levels again, because the majority of institutions have bought and have good options to make everything better, the highest that bitcoin can reach may be $23k, I don't think it will go down from there, That may be a great resistance that I think will not come again, but not everything is impossible, if it can happen, but as the market is I don't see it, I see a great price.

[milewilda]

War might not affect the price of bitcoin at this moment until the USA is directly involved in it, and there are no chances of the USA doing this as the USA is currently dealing with certain economic challenges.

On the contrary I think you should brace up for the upcoming rally just incase the US finally through themselves into the war because they have repeatedly said they would support isreal if it happens that things get out of hand for them. So maybe the price surge is yet to happen because US is still by the side but if they do, you should expect probably printing of money and that could increase inflation maybe slightly and more people would want to hedge their fiat in btc and that means more increase for demand making hodlers to determine the price and of which you know hodlers like increased profit.

Don't forget that tensions between Taiwan and China are also very tense and conflicts can happen at any time. The United States is facing a series of challenges and directly participating in any war would not be in their interest, they would not do it, IMO.

Rising inflation I don't think will benefit bitcoin. I mean, look at what happened last year when inflation was at its peak, bitcoin was dumped pretty heavily. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset, it is not a safe haven so whether people choose it or not is not guaranteed.

Economic news doesnt correlate most of the time but it isnt really that bad on taking a look or make considerations though.We've seen those different market conditions basing up with those major events or situation that it did really make out such impact on crypto market. Wayback we do see that any economical events or approach doesnt really affect out crypto space but it seems that nowadays it could really be likely to be giving out that kind of significant effect into it on which you cant really be able to blame out the community that whenever there are some news that do pop out then you would really be trying out to assess whether those things are positive or negative on which you would really be that definitely be trying out to make actions in correlation into it on which it is really just that a normal approach.

We've seen the bottom? Possible but its not really that something that we can conclude. We arent that too far with that 15k price on which we are just that 150% with that price and knowing that sentiments could really
happen anytime which it could crash out the market so easily. This is why i dont really love on drawing up conclusions specially into this unpredictable space.

[_BlackStar]

It is predicted that the market is still in the bear phase, and the correction is not over yet. The chances are that in the coming weeks or months, we will see a sub $20k dip before the bull takeover. These small price rallies are just to attract more investors because whales are looking for exit liquidity.
War might not affect the price of bitcoin at this moment until the USA is directly involved in it, and there are no chances of the USA doing this as the USA is currently dealing with certain economic challenges.

I think otherwise - the market has been trying to recover from its last major correction. I'm not saying the bearishness is still ongoing - it was already behind at the end of 2022 and this year bitcoin is in a recovery phase ahead of the 2024 halving.

Bitcoin had tried to break through the $32K resistance in the previous months - but that only failed and saw it correct further to $24K. Meanwhile in October - everything changed as the hype about ETF increased. Investors don't want to miss the train - they want to buy a lot and hold it for the long term, so this recovery phase is expected to continue regardless of further volatility.

[LogitechMouse]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

I heard that name already - Gareth Soloway, and what I remember is that most of his prediction, or analysis are against the market, or at least kind of pessimistic one. He's always predicting that Bitcoin will go lower than $15,000, and even lower.

In the video that I watched a few years ago, it said there that the last time we will see Bitcoin's price @$10,000 will be the last time that we will be seeing it at that price. What are the chances of Bitcoin's price reaching $10,000 again? I don't know, but for me it's very low that it might not reach that anymore, and just by looking at the current price movement of Bitcoin, it seems like the price is starting to rise already from it's recent lows of ~$17,000.

How big of a price increase do I expect if Blackrock's Spot Bitcoin ETF gets approved? Bitcoin will reach $100,000 sooner than we expected, and with how optimistic I am, it might go as high as $150,000 TBH. I might be wrong though (as always), but... yeah and it's just my prediction only. As for World War III, forget about it because it will not happen at all.

[WeThePe0ple]

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

You shouldn't listen too much those so-called forecasters when you trade, because if you lose money, you will just accuse them and you won't learn from your mistakes.
Regarding ETF approval I don't think it will have a significant impact on the price, as it is already priced in by the market IMO and because CME and CBOE futures listings along with Bakkt carried high expectations towards the community but didn't really pull up the price sustainably at the end.

I don't listen to them, planning to just copy their advice. I listen to consider their arguments if I find those arguments intelligent. And I compare those arguments to other channels. Someone else I often listened to is Mark Yusco, a hedge fund manager with great geopolitical insights.

I remember there was a time when many channels predicted that BTC would at least 100x within 3 months. This was not so long ago.
I also believe that the argument for this was the bank failures (Silicon valley bank and others who follow, which would cause a run on the banks and massive buy pressure for BTC)
This argument makes me frown because many others here say that a monetary collapse (bank failures) is bearish. I don't see why in case of a banking collapse, people would run to BTC. At this point in time one can not buy groceries and pay off a mortgage in BTC.

I dumped all channels who predicted this so I stayed with Soloway and Datadash.

While I have no understanding about short term market timing (graph analysis and short term trend prediction), I do understand the geopolitical situation quite well. I follow Ray Dalio for this (multi billion dollar hedge fund manager, and historian of the monetary system).

I personally estimate the odds very high of an all out war within the next few years. The current monetary system will eventually end in hyperinflation and bank failures, due to the escalated amount of debt on a global scale. This monetary system with the USA as a leader has been running since WWII, and WWIII will just be a battle to transfer wealth and power to a new leader that establishes the new financial rules. I believe that these will be the BRICS countries, and that the hegemony of the USA will be over.

If I stand by my prediction, I guess there should be new lows and I should not enter the market now.
However, I have no idea if the impact of such a war (and a monetary collapse, hyperinflation) would be more negative than that ETF approval will be positive.
I also don't know if the upswing caused by the 4th halving, would overpower a downswing caused by a huge war and a monetary collapse.

[kingvirtus09]

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

I think it is difficult for us to see bitcoin prices below $20k, even bitcoin at $25k is also very difficult after the current bull run. Considering the possibility of a bitcoin ETF if approved, I think the price of bitcoin will soar high, especially since the halving moment will occur soon. maybe $50k, or even a new ATH

Looking at the current issue of war, it is likely that it will not make the price of bitcoin go down but will instead tend to rise, this is in line with the Covid-19 conditions which have made the price of bitcoin even higher

In times like this, it's really unclear whether bitcoin will drop to 30k; right now, it's still around 34k. But he will have a liquidation; for sure, it is not happening now. Of course, when there is a sudden increase in Bitcoin, there will be a retracement; let's expect that.

This is based on my technical analysis and also based on what is happening in the market, which is why I said this too. So at least somehow I'm in a position to buy and sell. Even other cryptocurrencies have some similarities.

[Youngkhngdiddy]

You shouldn't listen too much those so-called forecasters when you trade, because if you lose money, you will just accuse them and you won't learn from your mistakes.
Regarding ETF approval I don't think it will have a significant impact on the price, as it is already priced in by the market IMO and because CME and CBOE futures listings along with Bakkt carried high expectations towards the community but didn't really pull up the price sustainably at the end.

  I total agree with you because some of this forecasters too are prune to errors, we are quick to putting the blame on someone when things don’t go in our favour, this is why you need to have the idea of what you’re doing, set analysis yourself, by so doing you’re trusting your judgement. Have one indicator and master it very well this will help with your analytical skills, rather than waiting for people to theirs fit you. Mastering an indicator or two will give you a better understanding on the  price action of the market and it will also  broaden your knowledge about the concept of crypto.
  I won’t attempt to lay out a timeline, but current economic levels are unsustainable. With everything happening around the world no, economy crisis in most countries couple with the war we might see a down turn of Bitcoin cause of this. The government are pushing really hard to make sure Bitcoin suffers but Bitcoin being a different entity will always prevails.