Is energy prices about to shoot up?

[retreat]

In several countries that import energy from countries/regions directly affected by war, it is possible that energy prices will increase due to delays in shipping cargo from sea routes. This delay in energy delivery will probably create a domino effect which will increase prices for many products and transportation that use energy.
Maybe the short-term solution for countries affected by this will be to release their oil and gas reserves to reduce prices, but this is not a long-term solution. Moreover, if the war drags on, there will be high inflation which will put many countries' economies at risk.
So the best solution to all of this is just peace in the region, because nothing will be achieved from war, there will only be destruction and sadness everywhere.

[serveria.com]

That is, do you consider the strikes of the Israeli Defense Forces against the international terrorist organization Hamas... terrorism?

Of course the Israeli terrorists have to call their civilian victims terrorists. ISIS use to call the civilians they killed terrorists too.

But in the real world according to the international law, people of the invaded country can use force to repel the invaders. Exactly like what people of Ukraine are doing these days. Ukrainian people are using force against the invading Russians, just like Palestinians are using force against the invading Zionists.
That is unless you are calling Ukrainian people terrorists too?!

Careful there, for God's sake! You can make the poor troll's brain explode trying to find the way out of this situation. 

Besides, Israeli terrorists are not fighting the armed forces of Palestine. They are murdering women and children. So far they have killed over 10000 innocent civilians, 4104 of which were children.
Not to mention that the Israeli terrorist targets are specifically civilian targets including hospitals and any medical centers, schools, concentration camps, press buildings and reporters, international aid groups such as UNRWA (UN agencies), even water tanks!
Even the ammunition the Israeli terrorists use are categorized as war crimes such as the phosphorous bombs they regularly drop on civilian concentrations that "boils" them to death..

I wonder why the ICC is silent? The world is waiting for the arrest warrant for the international war criminal Netanyahu (crimes confirmed by the UN)... 

No no - I'm not surprised by your statements! I would be surprised if you said otherwise

I'm not surprised that a Zionist is supporting the Zionist apartheid regime either

The bottom line is that the UAE did not take the side of Hamas and its puppet masters, and will not play to reduce oil production.

UAE as a member of OPEC has already reduced production. Like others, at this point none of them plan to reduce production and this has nothing to do with the genocide that is happening in Palestine.

It is now profitable for the UAE to sell expensive oil for a completely stable and liquid dollar, but not for rupees, yuan, or, worse, rubles.

LOL
https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-first-china-uae-gas-deal-in-yuan-a-new-blow-to-dollar-dominance

Qatar has signed an almost 30-year contract for gas supplies to the EU. Qatar also chose normal, stable buyers,

LOL
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/china-signs-major-lng-deal-qatar-beijings-gulf-push-continues

Yeah, great facts with valid sources which prove this pathetic bozo DrBeer is claiming just the opposite of truth.

[pooya87]

So the best solution to all of this is just peace in the region, because nothing will be achieved from war, there will only be destruction and sadness everywhere.

The only solution is to end the occupation, not just occupation of Palestine but other places too like Syria, Iraq, etc. That is the only way to reach peace and global energy price stability.
In any case, speaking of prices if you look at the yearly charts there has been a huge volatility over the past two years. For example this year we had the price start climbing from $72 in June up to $94 in September.
There are a ton of strategic reserves being released to bring it down. For example US is currently sitting at its lowest levels of reserves because of all the oil they've been desperately releasing to keep the price down.
This has been somewhat successful too since after hitting $94 the price started coming down and is currently sitting at $82 (these are Brent Crude prices).

If I wanted to update the situation on the title question I'd say the chance of a price shoot up has gone down (which is a good news as I pointed out previously) but things haven't gone back to normal yet and chance is not zero specially since Yemen recently shot down the $32 million US aircraft and another one had a "mishap" close to Lebanon (shot down?).
Additionally I also don't see this volatility ending any time soon, we may continue seeing swings down to $70 and back up to $100 and that is also terrible for the economy.

I wonder why the ICC is silent? The world is waiting for the arrest warrant for the international war criminal Netanyahu (crimes confirmed by the UN)... 

Because the world is "rigged" in favor of US regime and its proxies. Organizations such as UN only carry the name "international" but in reality they are American organizations. For example ever since Obama it has been general knowledge that UN is ordered to only fulfill US interests.

Besides, the crimes against humanity committed by US and its proxies are not new. There are dozens of UN resolutions against Israel and they never gave a shit about any of them. There are 0 sanctions against this terrorist organization and any resolution reaching the UN security council is vetoed by US!

P.S. Future of Netanyahu is going to be very funny IMO. I don't think he will ever see an international court, there is a good chance he will be executed by the Israelis themselves. These past days Tel-Aviv is seeing mass protests again, even more so after the news about 50+ Israeli prisoners having been killed because of Israel bombing of Gaza.

[Synchronice]

What's interesting is that oil price has not shown any significant reaction to the events of past couple of days.
Possibly because the routes have not yet been threatened by the presence of terrorists and their supporters. But we still need to wait and see what the next move is, this is only speculation for now.

Let me know what you predict.

What's interesting is that oil prices have fallen down, slightly, but have fallen down.
November 1st, the time when you created this thread, Brent Crude Oil price was $84.63
November 10 - Brent Crude Oil worth $81.70.

Crude Oil WTI, November 1st - $80.44
Cure Oil WTI, November 10 - $77.35

By the way, are we going to freeze in Germany this winter?

[pooya87]

By the way, are we going to freeze in Germany this winter?

You gotta ask the propaganda centers in Germany that started the "freeze" FUD.
By the way how is energy giant Uniper doing?

[so98nn]

This is not about one warfare BUT all the wars around the globe including Russian Ukraine rivalry too.

I think this is correct analysis. One of the report that I read about Oil trade routes adds up more sense to the ongoing discussion. According to the previous report it takes about 5-6 days to provide the Oil to European region. However after the war broke out the same Timeline has shifted to 30 days long journey to send out oil.

The major change is, new port location and suppliers too. One of the biggest emerging port for European is now African crude oil supplier through Nigeria and Angola hubs.

So whatever @pooya87 explained in their map can be expanded to even larger areas now. If you checkout the map displayed below then the routes can be understood in great amount of detail and see how they are taking longer than usual.

Obviously the after effects would be increased demand while the supply runs at slow speeds. 5x slower!!

LONDON

Oil trade routes are now at least five times longer than they were prior to the Russia-Ukraine war, raising the prospect of increased emissions from longer shipping routes.

While Europe shifted away from Russian suppliers and toward those in West Africa, Latin America, and the US, Russia shifted 90% of its crude exports, which were originally destined for European markets, to those in India and China.

Before the war, the voyage of a Russian oil ship from the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk to European ports in the Netherlands, France, and Belgium took five to six days because Europe was Russia's main oil export destination.

However, after European sanctions on Russian crude supplies came into effect in December 2022, Russian oil exports to ports in northwest Europe ground to a halt.

"This means that Europe, which used to be supplied by Russia, needed to find oil elsewhere, and that elsewhere is pretty much a combination of West Africa, Latin America and the US. All of those (destinations) are much longer freight routes than from Russia's Baltic Sea to northwest Europe," Viktor Katona, the lead crude analyst of commodity data and analytics firm Kpler, told Anadolu.

"It was a five- or six-day journey, but today's average voyage from West Africa or Latin America to Europe is about 25 days, which is five times longer than it used to be."

Brazil's crude exports to Europe increased from 236,959 barrels per day in February 2022 to 325,116 barrels per day in March 2023, the highest among Latin American countries. According to Kpler data, Brazilian exports reached a record high of 491,000 barrels per day in February this year, more than doubling the volume in a year.

The average journey from Brazil to Europe takes between 20 and 30 days, depending on the destination in Europe, with Spain and Portugal being the nearest neighbors and Germany and the Netherlands being the farthest away.

Mexican exports to Europe remained relatively at the same levels after the war, while Guyana's exports to the continent reached 270,000 barrels a day from almost zero before the war.

Trinidad and Tobacco have seen a continuous crude flow to Europe in the last eight months.

The Netherlands holds one of the major oil centers in Rotterdam, while Italy, Portugal, Germany and France are the top destination countries for post-war Latin American crude volumes in Europe.

Nigeria and Angola emerge as largest West African crude suppliers to Europe

More crude supplies from West African countries are making the longer voyage of approximately 25 days to Europe, filling the void left by the absence of Russian crude.

"The US, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and all of West Africa are all trying to supply in areas where Russia was forced to vacate," said Jim Mitchell, an oil research manager of supply chain and commodities research at the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

While Nigeria became the biggest supplier to Europe among West African countries, Angola increased crude exports the most. Angola's crude shipments to Europe showed a sustained rise since the beginning of the war, reaching over 300,000 barrels per day from an average of 33,000 barrels a day in February last year.

The Netherlands saw the biggest rise in crude flows from West African countries after the war.

Crude flows from the US to Europe increased significantly as the Netherlands, Italy, the United Kingdom, Finland, Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Spain, and Canada increased their crude imports from the US.

The UK's crude imports from the US rose from an average of 289,192 barrels a day in February 2022 to over 400,000 barrels in post-war months, while the Netherlands' imports reached over 510,000 barrels per day in March 2023, almost doubling compared to a year earlier.

The majority of US crude loads from US Gulf ports to Europe take an average of 20 days.

Greatest difference in travel time is from Russia to India

Russia's oil exports are taking longer journeys as India and China have emerged as the country's top export destinations.

Russian exports to these countries begin in the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, travel along the Baltic Sea, circumnavigate the Danish Islands, cross the British Straits, Gibraltar, Malta, Sicily, and the Suez Canal, and then continue through the Red Sea to India, which takes about 30-35 days, with the route to China taking 10 days longer.

However, Katona explained that not all crude grades take the slow 40–45-day delivery route because if ESPO blend crude shipments load from Russia's Far East, the journey to China takes only about five days due to its proximity to Chinese shores.

According to Kpler data, Russia's oil exports to India, including Ural, SBL, and ESPO, increased from zero in February 2022 to the highest level since the war in March 2023, at 1.99 million barrels per day.

"The amount of Russian crude going to India has been increasing for nine consecutive months. It is pretty much a bromance or love story between the two countries," Katona said.

Since the start of the war, Russia's crude exports to China have remained at an average of one million barrels per day, while Sri Lanka and Myanmar have emerged as significant export destinations for Russian crude, rising from marginal imports prior to the war.

Longer shipping routes are likely to raise emissions from shipping, an industry that accounts for 3% of global carbon emissions.

"The world trade has become significantly more polluting than it used to be before, that is an absolute fact. The biggest increase in terms of voyage times into Asia is Russia to India. So this is definitely increasing emissions from shipping compared to five days into Rotterdam. Likewise, US, West African and Latin American exports to Europe also mean more emissions," Katona said.

Shortest Russian supply route now Türkiye

Katona contended that Türkiye is the one country that is reducing overall shipping emissions for Russian crude and oil products, with a typical voyage from Russia’s only crude export terminal in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea coast to Türkiye lasting three to four days.

"It is the shortest Russian supply route right now," he said, noting that Türkiye has been importing significant quantities of Russian crude and oil products.

Russia's oil exports to Türkiye stood at 94,335 barrels per day in February 2022 and reached their highest level in September 2022 at 392,908 barrels per day, although imports dropped to 145,973 barrels per day in March 2023.

With Türkiye’s abundant refining capacity, which is very diesel-focused, the country has been importing Russian diesel for domestic consumption and exporting Turkish diesel to Europe, a move that Katona described as "technically legal and actually very smart."

Middle East still Asia's largest supplier

Middle East exports to Asia, according to Katona, may be the exception in terms of longer voyages, as producer countries appear to be focusing more on supplying Asia, the closest buyer of Middle East crude.

Despite the increase in Russian oil exports to China and India, Middle Eastern countries are still the biggest crude suppliers to the Asian region.

Saudi Arabia's crude exports to Asia stood at an average of 5.5 million barrels a day for the last 18 months, while the UAE's exports remain close to 3 million barrels a day, data shows.

Reference Article.

[DrBeer]

This is not about one warfare BUT all the wars around the globe including Russian Ukraine rivalry too.

I think this is correct analysis. One of the report that I read about Oil trade routes adds up more sense to the ongoing discussion. According to the previous report it takes about 5-6 days to provide the Oil to European region. However after the war broke out the same Timeline has shifted to 30 days long journey to send out oil.
The major change is, new port location and suppliers too. One of the biggest emerging port for European is now African crude oil supplier through Nigeria and Angola hubs.
So whatever @pooya87 explained in their map can be expanded to even larger areas now. If you checkout the map displayed below then the routes can be understood in great amount of detail and see how they are taking longer than usual.
Obviously the after effects would be increased demand while the supply runs at slow speeds. 5x slower!!
....

It's silly to deny that the logistics of supplying petroleum products have changed. But let's look at the problem a little wider to understand what really affects or can affect the price of oil on the market.
1. Before the terrorist country attacked Ukraine, supplies to the EU went through two ports: Ust-Luga and Primorsk.  Oil supplies from Russia and Kazakhstan through the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga will amount to an estimated 7.1 million tons in January 2023, which is the highest level since 2019. Such a forecast based on information from traders gives Reuters.
The publication writes that by the end of January, shipments of Russian Urals and Kazakh KEBCO (Kazakhstan Export Blend Crude Oil) from the Russian ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga will increase by almost 50% compared to December 2022. According to Reuters, Russia shipped 4.7 million tons of Urals and KEBCO crude oil from Baltic ports in December. That is, we do not observe a special drop here.
However, the article you cited says that deliveries to the EU have stopped. Question - no dissonance ? I.e. supplies have stopped, but their volume has grown at the level of 2022
To clarify: supplies... remained. The point is that the supply restrictions were for direct contracts with a terrorist country. But... the shadow fleet and "cunning" middlemen found a way out - they buy this oil at a big discount (Russia has to dispose of oil somewhere, as Russia has no modern infrastructure for storage or transfer of oil), then mix it with other grades of oil, and as a result they get "non-Russian oil", which is successfully sent to European refineries. A nuance that all sides do not like to mention The EU does not like the embargo being circumvented, but the EU likes the fact that they have oil, Russia keeps quiet because it gets at least some money and does not need to freeze the wells from which oil goes to Ust-Luga.
Primorsk is a rather large HUB for oil loading, but it was such until the AFU taught the Russian fleet to sail where it is not supposed to. Yes, the volume of shipments through this port has decreased.
2. And what do you get - Russian oil from 2 ports ruins the whole world oil market ?  Of course not ! The world market is formed by supply and demand on a global scale. For example, not so long ago the Chinese economy consumed a huge amount of oil, and influenced the formation of the price. Now China and its economy are going through bad hours, and as a consequence "Data from China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, has also raised doubts about demand prospects, Reuters adds.".
3. Supply. This is what several countries are now trying to manipulate by cutting oil production. But as we can see, they have been cutting oil production for a long time, but the market is not reacting the way they wanted: "Oil prices fall to 3-month lows...". And then there's a problem that was there in the '70s. Production was cut, the price dropped, and... the supplying countries started to miss out on huge sums of money. So they started dumping more cheap oil to make up for the lost profits. Which we're likely to see in the near future as well.
4. Market sabotage and economic terrorism. There is also such a way to influence the oil market. This is the card that someone is trying to play in the Middle East, trying to draw the main oil-producing region into the flames of a major war, which will disrupt the production and supply of oil from the region to the world market.

[pooya87]

One of the report that I read about Oil trade routes adds up more sense to the ongoing discussion. According to the previous report it takes about 5-6 days to provide the Oil to European region. However after the war broke out the same Timeline has shifted to 30 days long journey to send out oil.

Thanks for the additional info about the rest of the routes. I should add that a problem that is usually neglected about the added time is that it also adds to the costs. A shipment that takes 30 days costs a lot in terms of transport fees, the insurance, etc. Not to mention that some of these routes are risky specially in certain regions close to Africa with the maritime piracy and all that.

Russia's oil exports to Türkiye stood at 94,335 barrels per day in February 2022 and reached their highest level in September 2022 at 392,908 barrels per day, although imports dropped to 145,973 barrels per day in March 2023.

With Türkiye’s abundant refining capacity, which is very diesel-focused, the country has been importing Russian diesel for domestic consumption and exporting Turkish diesel to Europe, a move that Katona described as "technically legal and actually very smart."

This is one of the reasons why sanctions on Russia has been mostly a joke and it hurt Europe more than it hurt Russia. They all had to go through third parties to keep their economic relations with Russia. For example if I'm not mistaken it was either Armenia or Georgia that set a record in vehicle imports from Europe right after EU sanctioned Russia! Obviously the European car manufacturers were desperately trying to hang on to the Russian market even at the cost of adding the overhead of these proxies.

It's the same with energy, a lot of it went through proxies like Turkey and things like gas turned into LNG which is more expensive than before. And of course as the article also pointed out the "big shuffle" took place too where the customers and sources of energy changed creating even more overhead.

[pooya87]

A quick update on some stuff that happened over the past 20 days. Specially about the following part since the chances of it happening has just increased today:

The other thing to consider is the possibility of Yemenis attacks expanding to include more legitimate targets in Saudi Arabia and UAE. Both oil rich countries and both legitimate targets because their coalition with US has invaded Yemen and it would only be retaliation according to international laws. Also legitimate targets because they both are helping the terrorist organization commit genocide in Palestine (eg. UAE fighter jets are reported to be participating in bombing Gaza in the past days).
That can translate into much more than just oil price rising, there will be oil shortage.

Saudi and Emirati help which was somewhat speculation and weak proofs, is now a solid fact since their air defense and air force has already shot down multiple projectiles coming from Yemen that were targeting the terrorist positions.

Additionally we have officials in Yemen reporting that Saudi-US coalition has activated their proxies inside their soil (that mostly consists of ISIS terrorist cells) to distract them from their targets in occupied Palestine. This is also a clear break of the cease fire between Yemen and US-Arab coalition which could re-start the war as I explained in the quote above.
Armed forces of Yemen have already shot down a $32 million US aircraft, attacked 2 US Navy destroyers and damaged one at least, seized at least 1 Israeli ships in Red Sea and attacked another in the Indian Ocean.

Now this is the part that made me update this topic. According to the Guardian, US regime is contemplating an attack on Yemeni positions.

There are also reports that the US is willing to launch an attack on Houthi military sites in and around Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, as well as its port operations room, unless the ship seized on Sunday, the Galaxy Leader, is released.

This is a significant development in our speculation in this topic. If this actually happens, one of the targets apart from US military positions and warships is going to be the Saudi Aramco. But this time it won't be a controlled attack to "reduce" its production by 50%, it could be a total destruction of the entire Aramco facility. That is a whopping 9 million barrels per day going up in smokes. That's about a third of OPEC total production...

My speculation:
The data we have from the statements like the one in the Guardian is pointing to more escalation and Aramco being blown up. However, if we get realistic I don't think this is going to happen. I'd say this is a bluff made only for the media. US regime is trying to keep the illusion of strength alive and say that despite the fact that US military is being attacked over a dozen times a day with heavy casualties, they still can respond!
The reason is simple and in two parts.
The obvious one is that if US enters any war at this scale, they'll lose everything elsewhere (meaning against Russia and against China) very quickly and very easily.
The less obvious one (unless if you are familiar with the true military strength US wants to face) is that if US regime actually attacks Yemen, the Yemenis respond is no longer two light and slow cruise missiles that were shot at USS Carney a month ago that damaged it a little and forced them to bring the destroyer to Djibouti port to be quickly fixed. Instead it will be more heavier supersonic cruise missiles that rip these warships apart. Maybe we could even see the 1.6 ton supersonic cruise missile Abu-Mahdi in action and this is not something US military can ever face.

[Argoo]

I don’t think that energy prices in the world will increase significantly in the near future.

Now Russia is under enormous pressure from China due to the fact that Russia has lost a huge European market for its energy resources and wants to increase their supplies to China fivefold. Taking advantage of this, China demanded new gas discounts from Russia and no longer wants to build the joint mega-project of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline. But if the pipeline is not built, Russia will have nowhere to send huge volumes of gas.

Russia's budget for next year provides that the average gas price will be $297.3 per thousand cubic meters versus $501.6 for Europe and Turkey previously. The discount for China in 2024 will increase to 46%: gas from Power of Siberia-1 will cost $271.6 per thousand cubic meters, and for Turkey and Europe - $481.7. It is unlikely that such cheap gas and in large quantities will contribute to an increase in its world price.

In fact, gas should not rise in price due to the losses that Russia incurs, selling it to the East very cheaply in a hopeless situation.
Source:
https://m.gazeta.ua/ru/articles/world-life/_putin-v-tupike-kitaj-davit-na-rossiyu/1165829

[STT]

The main reason I would suspect for energy prices rising is that USA has expended its reserves for quite a long time and cannot continue to do so forever.  If that supply is no longer there and there is any constriction elsewhere with demand continuing to rise post covid it would be enough to bring prices up.  The middle east effect as mentioned has not yet appeared in the sharp way its done so previously and I would not guess on that expansion of the troubles as its unfortunately not a new scenario despite the many deaths.  The missile launch from Yemen is surprising but not the threat it could be if defenses were not already prepared for such a thing, I can remember Saddam launching scud missiles at Israel many years ago in a desperate attempt to cause chaos.

[pooya87]

The missile launch from Yemen is surprising but not the threat it could be if defenses were not already prepared for such a thing,

There is no defense that can prevent a ballistic, cruise or drone strike conducted by an advanced military like Yemen (read Iranian technologies) from successfully reaching their targets. Proof of it is in the US-Arab coalition invasion of Yemen where after Iranian support began the Yemenis defenders could easily hit heavily defended Saudi, Emirati and even US bases in a 2000 radius and no amount of defense could stop it.

Of course that doesn't mean the air defenses can not should any of it down specially when they use smaller, slower and cheaper projectiles with small quantities instead of the heavier, faster and more expensive ones. For example in all their attacks against Eilat some of the projectiles were shot down and some went through hitting their targets.

I can remember Saddam launching scud missiles at Israel many years ago in a desperate attempt to cause chaos.

That's not a good comparison for many reasons.
For starters those were old and weak SCUD missiles with short range that were modified to barely go far enough to reach the occupied lands but today were are talking about advanced long range ballistic and cruise missiles that are designed to hit targets with pinpoint accuracy with a 2000+ range. Some even reach hypersonic speed, something that is impossible to defend against.

More importantly Saddam didn't even want to hit Israel. In fact many of the Iraqi officials after Saddam's demise stated that Saddam had talked with Israel about this attack and planned it together!
Not to mention that these missiles didn't have a warhead to even cause any actual damage. In other words this was a big fakeout. In fact if you check out the reported casualties, the handful died of suffocation after they wore gas masks wrong out of panic!!! which had nothing to do with missiles Saddam launched most of which landed in the desert.

His plan wasn't to cause chaos, his plan was to change the Arab population opinion when US was attacking Iraq with the help of Arabs. He was trying to pretend that he is still the "leader of Arab world" and of course he wanted to pretend that he supports the Palestinian cause.

[serveria.com]

One of the report that I read about Oil trade routes adds up more sense to the ongoing discussion. According to the previous report it takes about 5-6 days to provide the Oil to European region. However after the war broke out the same Timeline has shifted to 30 days long journey to send out oil.

Thanks for the additional info about the rest of the routes. I should add that a problem that is usually neglected about the added time is that it also adds to the costs. A shipment that takes 30 days costs a lot in terms of transport fees, the insurance, etc. Not to mention that some of these routes are risky specially in certain regions close to Africa with the maritime piracy and all that.

Russia's oil exports to Türkiye stood at 94,335 barrels per day in February 2022 and reached their highest level in September 2022 at 392,908 barrels per day, although imports dropped to 145,973 barrels per day in March 2023.

With Türkiye’s abundant refining capacity, which is very diesel-focused, the country has been importing Russian diesel for domestic consumption and exporting Turkish diesel to Europe, a move that Katona described as "technically legal and actually very smart."

This is one of the reasons why sanctions on Russia has been mostly a joke and it hurt Europe more than it hurt Russia. They all had to go through third parties to keep their economic relations with Russia. For example if I'm not mistaken it was either Armenia or Georgia that set a record in vehicle imports from Europe right after EU sanctioned Russia! Obviously the European car manufacturers were desperately trying to hang on to the Russian market even at the cost of adding the overhead of these proxies.

It's the same with energy, a lot of it went through proxies like Turkey and things like gas turned into LNG which is more expensive than before. And of course as the article also pointed out the "big shuffle" took place too where the customers and sources of energy changed creating even more overhead.

Yes, definitely so. Recently, several gas distribution companies in EU announced that gas distribution prices and/or gas prices are going up 30-35% starting from next year. Which means more pain for common EU folks. Which in turn means less support for Ukraine. Poland and Slovakia have already turned their backs on Ukraine. Governments are taking billions in loans to sponsor Ukraine war. They ran out of money and are now cowardly trying to push all expenses on their people. 

[DrBeer]

Yes, definitely so. Recently, several gas distribution companies in EU announced that gas distribution prices and/or gas prices are going up 30-35% starting from next year. Which means more pain for common EU folks. Which in turn means less support for Ukraine. Poland and Slovakia have already turned their backs on Ukraine. Governments are taking billions in loans to sponsor Ukraine war. They ran out of money and are now cowardly trying to push all expenses on their people.  

In Russian folklore, there's a saying - "who cares about what, but the louse about the bath" So you - everyone will freeze, there will be no help for Ukraine, blah blah blah Such squeals have been heard since 2022, when the "great and invincible army of russia", made a terrorist large-scale attack on Ukraine, hoping that no one will help it. Now the Kremlin Fuhrer is whining from his bunker - stop helping Ukraine ! 

But let's put aside the morbid complexes of pro-Russian agitators and get back to the topic

Let's start with general educational questions. The price of gas transportation is not a synonym for "gas price". It is a service provided by private companies to deliver gas. And in the EU it can't just be raised. That is why the author of the post did not provide links to real facts
Secondly, transportation of gas by private companies has no impact on financial and technical assistance to the country affected by Russian terrorism. For example Germany (they probably don't know yet that gas transportation will become more expensive  ) in the next year's budget will include additional (in relation to 2023) 4 billion euros for military aid to Ukraine. Unexpected, isn't it ?

And about energy prices.  Very briefly - oil is not growing, and there are no objective reasons. Gas is stable and is at the level until 2022. Oil is also showing a good chart.

[pooya87]

But let's put aside the morbid complexes of pro-Russian agitators and get back to the topic

Do you even know what this topic is about?

Let me help you one more time. This topic is about the conflict in West Asia and possibility of it entering specifically the Red Sea which could affect the energy trade routes
It has nothing to do with Russia, current oil/gas prices in Europe, German budget, etc.

As I've already explained in previous posts (which I know you haven't bothered reading any) the chances of this possibility has gone down as time passed. At this point we don't have any reason to speculate a spike because of the events analyzed in this topic because the Armed Forces of Yemen are only seizing any ships that belongs to the terrorist organization Israel. And nobody has the capability to do anything about it hence there won't be any expansion of the conflict.

[serveria.com]

In Russian folklore, there's a saying - "who cares about what, but the louse about the bath" So you - everyone will freeze, there will be no help for Ukraine, blah blah blah Such squeals have been heard since 2022, when the "great and invincible army of russia", made a terrorist large-scale attack on Ukraine, hoping that no one will help it. Now the Kremlin Fuhrer is whining from his bunker - stop helping Ukraine ! 

You're very good at lying! I never said that someone is going to freeze, certainly not. We're just going to pay a lot more that's it. Alive and poor. War tax. No EU citizen has ever given his/her permission to help Ukraine. EU (de-facto US sockpuppet) governments did that.  

Let's start with general educational questions. The price of gas transportation is not a synonym for "gas price". It is a service provided by private companies to deliver gas. And in the EU it can't just be raised. That is why the author of the post did not provide links to real facts

https://www.kurzy.cz/zpravy/749707-eru-planuje-zvysit-regulovane-ceny-za-distribuci-energie-az-o-70--jak-se-na-zmenu-pripravit/

ERO plans to increase regulated prices for energy distribution by up to 70%.

https://bnn-news.com/gaso-plans-to-increase-natural-gas-distribution-service-tariffs-in-latvia-next-year-251838

Latvian natural gas distribution system operator Gaso has submitted to the Public Utilities Commission (SPRK) its new natural gas distribution service tariff plan, which provides for the increase of the variable and fixed part of tariffs starting with the 1st of January 2024, according to the entry in the Latvian Herald.

Unlike you, I always provide valid sources.

And about energy prices.  Very briefly - oil is not growing, and there are no objective reasons. Gas is stable and is at the level until 2022. Oil is also showing a good chart.

Really?

In the first half of 2023, average household electricity prices in the EU continued to show an increase compared with the same period in 2022, from €25.3 per 100 kWh to €28.9 per 100 kWh. Average gas prices also increased compared with the same period in 2022, from €8.6 per 100 kWh to €11.9 per 100 kWh in the first half of 2023. These prices are the highest recorded by Eurostat.

Data also show that household electricity prices increased in 22 EU countries in the first half of 2023 compared with the first half of 2022. In national currency, the largest increase (+953%) was reported in the Netherlands. This increase is related to several factors: tax relief measures from 2022 were not continued in 2023 and at the same time, energy taxes on electricity doubled for households. A price cap will be incorporated and this will lower the prices at all levels quite significantly in 2023. Large increases in national currency were also registered in Lithuania (+88%), Romania (+77%) and Latvia (+74%).

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20231026-1

Yes, just ~1000% growth, no big deal! Great success! Gimme money, gimme tanks, gimme gimme gimme, but you realize these things are not free and you'll have to pay back? Not Mr. Zelensky, no, it's YOU will have to pay.

[DrBeer]

.....

Well "Mr. 100% truth", let's continue

Read your posts in other threads, about the unacceptable rise in gas prices and other nonsense, where you even cited some photos from the fence .
Let's start from the beginning. This topic, opened by respected pooya87, concerns the issue of hydrocarbons ... And then you suddenly "jump" from the topic, where as always you shit yourself, and instead of gas you cite information not about the EU, but about one country, where POSSIBLY, in the FUTURE year, will raise ... the cost of electricity

Did you write that, or ?

Yes, definitely so. Recently, several gas distribution companies in EU announced that gas distribution prices and/or gas prices are going up 30-35% starting from next year. Which means more pain for common EU folks. Which in turn means less support for Ukraine. Poland and Slovakia have already turned their backs on Ukraine. Governments are taking billions in loans to sponsor Ukraine war. They ran out of money and are now cowardly trying to push all expenses on their people. 

And you, in the above article, just read the headline, but did not read the article itself, as always
And the article says that if you don't like the tariffs of this provider... choose another one

"One way customers can prepare for higher costs is to scrutinize their paperwork from energy suppliers and see if there is an offer on the market that better suits their needs. We first recommend finding out what price will apply to the customer after the price ceiling ends , i.e. from 1.1. 2024 ."

That should have been the end of it, but I will add: you cited a great article about the EU, except that you forgot to mention that the article talks about, and clearly states that this was happening.... early 2023 Accidentally forgot to note ? It's now the end of 2023, and you can find charts of EU prices at the current time. I have cited from several times for a reason, where indeed from spring 2022 to the first half of 2023, prices were high, for reasons known to all, and then.... the graphs go down.

Bottom line: all your pathetic and primitive attempts to manipulate the data are easily verifiable, and cause nothing but laughter

[AnonBitCoiner]

In several countries that import energy from countries/regions directly affected by war, it is possible that energy prices will increase due to delays in shipping cargo from sea routes. This delay in energy delivery will probably create a domino effect which will increase prices for many products and transportation that use energy.
Maybe the short-term solution for countries affected by this will be to release their oil and gas reserves to reduce prices, but this is not a long-term solution. Moreover, if the war drags on, there will be high inflation which will put many countries' economies at risk.
So the best solution to all of this is just peace in the region, because nothing will be achieved from war, there will only be destruction and sadness everywhere.

The main reason is war so whenever war continues between two countries then both countries stop the process of export or import and also other countries faces troubles because sometime these countries act as a way through which energy is transfer among countries. So all countries are facing difficulties and the percentage of energy resources become limited therefore less the energy sources more will be its price.

War can destroy the happiness of individuals and also it is the reason behind bad economy of a country as a consequence of which inflation increases day by day. Those countries where war take place takes years to recover back to original position because war destroy everything from materials to individual's life.

[tygeade]

In Russian folklore, there's a saying - "who cares about what, but the louse about the bath" So you - everyone will freeze, there will be no help for Ukraine, blah blah blah Such squeals have been heard since 2022, when the "great and invincible army of russia", made a terrorist large-scale attack on Ukraine, hoping that no one will help it. Now the Kremlin Fuhrer is whining from his bunker - stop helping Ukraine ! 

But let's put aside the morbid complexes of pro-Russian agitators and get back to the topic

Let's start with general educational questions. The price of gas transportation is not a synonym for "gas price". It is a service provided by private companies to deliver gas. And in the EU it can't just be raised. That is why the author of the post did not provide links to real facts
Secondly, transportation of gas by private companies has no impact on financial and technical assistance to the country affected by Russian terrorism. For example Germany (they probably don't know yet that gas transportation will become more expensive  ) in the next year's budget will include additional (in relation to 2023) 4 billion euros for military aid to Ukraine. Unexpected, isn't it ?

I think it's mainly strong because Europe is not stupid enough to just trust some madmen like Russia for all their needs, they will of course buy from them if offered cheaply and when Russia stays calm, but when they go mad, they know what they could do and how to fix it, hell they were ready in an INSTANT to put out their wood stock to heat up the whole continent if they had to, and that shows how much they were ready for a case like this, they probably assumed Russia would go mad one day and they got some other method ready just in case.

So yeah, you are right that energy will not get too worse, plus I remember there were some nuclear factories too right? In France I think, was it? Not sure if those stay exist, but that should be more than enough.

[DrBeer]

That's not a good comparison for many reasons.
For starters those were old and weak SCUD missiles with short range that were modified to barely go far enough to reach the occupied lands but today were are talking about advanced long range ballistic and cruise missiles that are designed to hit targets with pinpoint accuracy with a 2000+ range. Some even reach hypersonic speed, something that is impossible to defend against.

More importantly Saddam didn't even want to hit Israel. In fact many of the Iraqi officials after Saddam's demise stated that Saddam had talked with Israel about this attack and planned it together!
Not to mention that these missiles didn't have a warhead to even cause any actual damage. In other words this was a big fakeout. In fact if you check out the reported casualties, the handful died of suffocation after they wore gas masks wrong out of panic!!! which had nothing to do with missiles Saddam launched most of which landed in the desert.

His plan wasn't to cause chaos, his plan was to change the Arab population opinion when US was attacking Iraq with the help of Arabs. He was trying to pretend that he is still the "leader of Arab world" and of course he wanted to pretend that he supports the Palestinian cause.

If the author of the topic writes about rockets, then my answer will be correct too

Why do you tell such fairy tales? Here are the real facts:

During the 1991 Gulf War, the Iraqis fired modified R-17s at the territories of Israel (43 launches, 40 successful), Saudi Arabia (48 launches, 44 successful), Qatar (1 launch) and Bahrain (1 launch).
A total of 93 missiles were launched, 5 missiles went off trajectory during launch initiation and 2 during flight.

Scud missile fire caused great destruction in Israel and Saudi Arabia. In Israel, 11727 square meters of various buildings were destroyed. In Saudi Arabia, the destruction reached 17865 square meters.

I will tell you secrets - in Ukraine, "ancient" Petriot complexes, very qualitatively and effectively shoot down not Scud, but quite well, according to Russian statements, of course, "having no analogues", missiles Kalibr, Kinzhal, modified C300 (ground-to-ground). This is despite the fact that they are "hypersonic, can't be shot down by anything, and in general are not available for shooting down". This is understandable, according to Russia's fantasies

But back to energy carriers, I'll be 100% on topic
For the "take-off" of energy prices, it is necessary to fulfill one of 2 conditions :
1. growth of demand for energy carriers
2. a sharp reduction in supply on the market

Therefore, expectations are possible only in the presence of one (or two) of these factors. As of today, the market has:
1. Decline in demand (subsidence of the Chinese economy)
2. Not significant decrease in production (compensated by the decline in demand)

News feeds confirm the decline in oil prices: Oil prices continue to fall despite OPEC+ restrictions. It is noted that the cost of February futures for Brent crude oil on the London exchange ICE Futures is 78.26 dollars per barrel, which is 0.62 dollars (0.79%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, December 1, the price of contracts fell by $1.98 (2.5%) to $78.88 per barrel.

Also, WTI crude futures for January on the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by $0.51 (0.69%), to $ 73.56 per barrel.

Both Brent and WTI lost about 2% in price last week.

According to Craig Erlam, chief analyst at OANDA, traders either do not believe that OPEC+ countries will stick to the agreed terms or do not consider the production cuts sufficient.

It is added that other experts also see signals of a split within the alliance, which could affect its ability to achieve its target, let alone further production cuts.