zasad@ (OP)
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November 01, 2023, 05:44:40 PM |
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https://www.bbc.com/russian/international/2013/10/131016_us_oil_embargo_anno"October 17, 2023 marks 50 years since the start of the 1973 Arab oil embargo. On the eve of this anniversary, it was announced that the United States is about to become the main producer of oil and gas on the planet, leaving behind the current champions - Russia and Saudi Arabia. The embargo was declared on October 17, 1973 in response to US President Richard Nixon's order for Operation Nickel Grass, which supplied US weapons to Israel. The latter was at that moment repelling attacks from Egypt and Syria, who intended to return the territories captured by the Israelis during the Six-Day War of 1967." I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves. The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years?
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DrBeer
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November 01, 2023, 06:47:57 PM |
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https://www.bbc.com/russian/international/2013/10/131016_us_oil_embargo_anno"October 17, 2023 marks 50 years since the start of the 1973 Arab oil embargo. On the eve of this anniversary, it was announced that the United States is about to become the main producer of oil and gas on the planet, leaving behind the current champions - Russia and Saudi Arabia. The embargo was declared on October 17, 1973 in response to US President Richard Nixon's order for Operation Nickel Grass, which supplied US weapons to Israel. The latter was at that moment repelling attacks from Egypt and Syria, who intended to return the territories captured by the Israelis during the Six-Day War of 1967." I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves. The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years? Theoretically yes. Practically - no, at least not in that format. In 1973, this was a full-fledged agreement between countries with some common interest. At that time, this was a response to the help of the West, and primarily the United States, in favor of Israel, which defeated the armies of several countries. Historically, it sounded like this: "...the Arab countries that are members of OAPEC*, as well as Syria and Egypt, announced their refusal to sell their oil to countries that supported Israel in the war with Syria and Egypt." *OAPEC is a permanent international organization. The organization has 11 members: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia and the UAE. But, 50 years have passed. And many of these countries have qualitatively, mutually beneficially integrated into the Western economy, and live very well from this. Conclusion 1. In this situation, if the attempt at a new “oil embargo” is supported, it will be by a noticeably smaller number of countries. Moreover, the largest players, whose incomes depend on oil consumption by the Western world, will definitely not support it. After this, the United States and other countries that survived the embargo began to actively develop oil production in their own countries in order to protect against such antics. And they succeeded. Conclusion 2. If you try to repeat the embargo, a commensurate loss will not be achieved to the countries against whom it was started. We take into account that this process today was provoked not by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but by a certain group of rogue countries that are facing big problems because of their status. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is quite a staged production to incite a new large-scale war that will lead to a geopolitical confrontation between the West and the Middle East, with the possibility of strong negative pressure on oil production in the region. Also, taking into account the “methods” of economic terror, I will assume that the initiators of the new oil crisis are even more interested in the destruction of oil production in the region than in a controlled embargo. They need total benefit from the global crisis in the oil market. Conclusion 3. There will not be an embargo in the form that was in 1973, we assume that it will simply be a global military conflict, which “by accident” will cause very serious destruction and complicate oil production in the region, which will lead to global, previously unseen problems in everything world.
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hugeblack
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November 01, 2023, 07:20:11 PM |
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Things were different since 1971, and the United States’ dependence on oil or the US dollar on the petrodollar agreement is no longer what it was in the past. Therefore, trying solutions of the past will not change reality. In addition, any oil crisis will affect China, which is a strategic goal for some countries that may try to hinder Chinese development, in short. Energy is an effective weapon in a state of peace, such as influencing voter attitudes and changing political orientations, and it is less effective in a state of war.
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November 01, 2023, 10:41:32 PM |
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The embargo was declared on October 17, 1973 in response to US President Richard Nixon's order for Operation Nickel Grass, which supplied US weapons to Israel. The latter was at that moment repelling attacks from Egypt and Syria, who intended to return the territories captured by the Israelis during the Six-Day War of 1967."
I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves. The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years?
Much has changed since that date, and it seems that the United States and the rest of the world powers have understood the lesson. These countries have begun to adopt policies to contain countries that have banned the export of oil and gas to them. Today, all countries in the region are friends of the United States, and the United States has military bases in all of those countries, and I mean here Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the Emirates, in addition to overthrowing the Iraqi regime and continuing pressure on the Iranian regime. Do you really think that there are those who still dare to carry out these movements that are hostile to the direct interests of the West?
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zasad@ (OP)
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November 02, 2023, 11:54:17 AM |
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The embargo was declared on October 17, 1973 in response to US President Richard Nixon's order for Operation Nickel Grass, which supplied US weapons to Israel. The latter was at that moment repelling attacks from Egypt and Syria, who intended to return the territories captured by the Israelis during the Six-Day War of 1967."
I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves. The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years?
Much has changed since that date, and it seems that the United States and the rest of the world powers have understood the lesson. These countries have begun to adopt policies to contain countries that have banned the export of oil and gas to them. Today, all countries in the region are friends of the United States, and the United States has military bases in all of those countries, and I mean here Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the Emirates, in addition to overthrowing the Iraqi regime and continuing pressure on the Iranian regime. Do you really think that there are those who still dare to carry out these movements that are hostile to the direct interests of the West? I think that the US will lose political influence. The first call was the withdrawal of the army from Afghanistan. Direct global conflicts are unlikely due to the presence of nuclear weapons in many countries, but economic wars will exhaust opponents. The US and Europe will not win a guerrilla war against a billion people in the Middle East.
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Sunderland
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November 02, 2023, 12:48:20 PM |
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The embargo was declared on October 17, 1973 in response to US President Richard Nixon's order for Operation Nickel Grass, which supplied US weapons to Israel. The latter was at that moment repelling attacks from Egypt and Syria, who intended to return the territories captured by the Israelis during the Six-Day War of 1967."
I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves. The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years?
Much has changed since that date, and it seems that the United States and the rest of the world powers have understood the lesson. These countries have begun to adopt policies to contain countries that have banned the export of oil and gas to them. Today, all countries in the region are friends of the United States, and the United States has military bases in all of those countries, and I mean here Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the Emirates, in addition to overthrowing the Iraqi regime and continuing pressure on the Iranian regime. Do you really think that there are those who still dare to carry out these movements that are hostile to the direct interests of the West? I think that the US will lose political influence. The first call was the withdrawal of the army from Afghanistan. Direct global conflicts are unlikely due to the presence of nuclear weapons in many countries, but economic wars will exhaust opponents. The US and Europe will not win a guerrilla war against a billion people in the Middle East. In theory it might be possible but in reality it will be impossible to achieve again. The embargo will never happen because the US and EU will not lose a political influence in the middle east, rich countries there still need US and EU. Too many factions in the middle east, and many of them busy fighting with each other. And i think the withdrawal from Afganistan is a smart move, why would US waste money, resources, and human lives for a corrupt gov who done nothing but only waste the money from the US tax payers? Well, US is the one who lose interest on Afganistan.
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pooya87
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November 02, 2023, 03:25:53 PM |
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it was announced that the United States is about to become the main producer of oil and gas on the planet, leaving behind the current champions - Russia and Saudi Arabia.
What do you mean by "main"? You know that US is the biggest consumer of energy and currently despite the high production, they face a deficit of about a 7 million barrels of oil per day. They cover that huge deficit by importing oil from mainly West Asia. Because of this massive consumption and deficit US can never become a major global supplier. The reason why you see a country like Saudi Arabia export this much oil is because they have a tiny domestic consumption (3 million bpd I believe)! I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves.
You mean the Strategic Oil Reserves? Over the past year because the oil production by OPEC in general and also oil exports to US has decreased, that has forced them into releasing their strategic reserves at about 2-3 million barrels per day to cover the difference. It is currently sitting at its lowest. I did some calculations a while back that if I recall it correctly those reserves at best case scenario (no embargo) would last us less than a year. But in case of an embargo (7 million deficit) they would last about a month or two considering the ridiculously huge oil consumption by United States which is between 19 to 20 million bpd. Another problem is that the oil US has which they are extracting is also running out! At this rate of extraction it will only last 3 or 4 more years. As you may know, when you tap into these resources their extraction becomes harder. In other words if today they are extracting something like 12 million bpd, next year they will be able to extract less like 9 million bpd because of pressure drops and other complications as it reaches the end. That means the 7 million bpd deficit would grow even bigger. The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years?
You mean the embargo? It's hard to say but right now I'd say the chances are little to none. If things take a turn for the worse it is possible though.
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coupable
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November 02, 2023, 04:40:19 PM |
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The embargo was declared on October 17, 1973 in response to US President Richard Nixon's order for Operation Nickel Grass, which supplied US weapons to Israel. The latter was at that moment repelling attacks from Egypt and Syria, who intended to return the territories captured by the Israelis during the Six-Day War of 1967."
I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves. The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years?
Much has changed since that date, and it seems that the United States and the rest of the world powers have understood the lesson. These countries have begun to adopt policies to contain countries that have banned the export of oil and gas to them. Today, all countries in the region are friends of the United States, and the United States has military bases in all of those countries, and I mean here Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the Emirates, in addition to overthrowing the Iraqi regime and continuing pressure on the Iranian regime. Do you really think that there are those who still dare to carry out these movements that are hostile to the direct interests of the West? I think that the US will lose political influence. The first call was the withdrawal of the army from Afghanistan. Direct global conflicts are unlikely due to the presence of nuclear weapons in many countries, but economic wars will exhaust opponents. The US and Europe will not win a guerrilla war against a billion people in the Middle East. Here it is necessary to clarify exactly which region you are talking about because America has actually lost its political influence on the Asian side, and for this reason some may imagine that it is no longer able to confront the Gulf region and the Middle East alone. But on the other hand, it succeeded in having a greater influence on the countries of the Arab Gulf and the Middle East using various mechanisms. Neither Saudi Arabia nor any classic power in the Gulf region is capable of challenging the United States and the world today as it did in the seventies. The United States took a lesson from what happened, especially after OPEC failed at that time to limit the effects of the embargo. At the same time, those countries that succeeded in influencing the economies of major countries at that time no longer think about using the same pressure again because of the policies of connections of interests.
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zasad@ (OP)
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November 03, 2023, 11:42:05 AM Last edit: November 03, 2023, 12:03:27 PM by zasad@ |
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The embargo was declared on October 17, 1973 in response to US President Richard Nixon's order for Operation Nickel Grass, which supplied US weapons to Israel. The latter was at that moment repelling attacks from Egypt and Syria, who intended to return the territories captured by the Israelis during the Six-Day War of 1967."
I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves. The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years?
Much has changed since that date, and it seems that the United States and the rest of the world powers have understood the lesson. These countries have begun to adopt policies to contain countries that have banned the export of oil and gas to them. Today, all countries in the region are friends of the United States, and the United States has military bases in all of those countries, and I mean here Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the Emirates, in addition to overthrowing the Iraqi regime and continuing pressure on the Iranian regime. Do you really think that there are those who still dare to carry out these movements that are hostile to the direct interests of the West? I think that the US will lose political influence. The first call was the withdrawal of the army from Afghanistan. Direct global conflicts are unlikely due to the presence of nuclear weapons in many countries, but economic wars will exhaust opponents. The US and Europe will not win a guerrilla war against a billion people in the Middle East. In theory it might be possible but in reality it will be impossible to achieve again. The embargo will never happen because the US and EU will not lose a political influence in the middle east, rich countries there still need US and EU. Too many factions in the middle east, and many of them busy fighting with each other. And i think the withdrawal from Afganistan is a smart move, why would US waste money, resources, and human lives for a corrupt gov who done nothing but only waste the money from the US tax payers? Well, US is the one who lose interest on Afganistan. You will forgive me for speaking harshly, but people are a resource that can be attracted for money and sent to war. Why spend huge resources on supporting Israel where the chances of winning are almost impossible, and large territories will require large investments that Israel does not have. The embargo was declared on October 17, 1973 in response to US President Richard Nixon's order for Operation Nickel Grass, which supplied US weapons to Israel. The latter was at that moment repelling attacks from Egypt and Syria, who intended to return the territories captured by the Israelis during the Six-Day War of 1967."
I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves. The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years?
Much has changed since that date, and it seems that the United States and the rest of the world powers have understood the lesson. These countries have begun to adopt policies to contain countries that have banned the export of oil and gas to them. Today, all countries in the region are friends of the United States, and the United States has military bases in all of those countries, and I mean here Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the Emirates, in addition to overthrowing the Iraqi regime and continuing pressure on the Iranian regime. Do you really think that there are those who still dare to carry out these movements that are hostile to the direct interests of the West? I think that the US will lose political influence. The first call was the withdrawal of the army from Afghanistan. Direct global conflicts are unlikely due to the presence of nuclear weapons in many countries, but economic wars will exhaust opponents. The US and Europe will not win a guerrilla war against a billion people in the Middle East. Here it is necessary to clarify exactly which region you are talking about because America has actually lost its political influence on the Asian side, and for this reason some may imagine that it is no longer able to confront the Gulf region and the Middle East alone. But on the other hand, it succeeded in having a greater influence on the countries of the Arab Gulf and the Middle East using various mechanisms. Neither Saudi Arabia nor any classic power in the Gulf region is capable of challenging the United States and the world today as it did in the seventies. The United States took a lesson from what happened, especially after OPEC failed at that time to limit the effects of the embargo. At the same time, those countries that succeeded in influencing the economies of major countries at that time no longer think about using the same pressure again because of the policies of connections of interests. I think that the United States cannot wage a full-fledged war in the east. Their aircraft carriers are old and more like a large floating target that is destroyed by a supersonic missile. Therefore, wars have always been successfully waged by puppet politicians. it was announced that the United States is about to become the main producer of oil and gas on the planet, leaving behind the current champions - Russia and Saudi Arabia.
What do you mean by "main"? You know that US is the biggest consumer of energy and currently despite the high production, they face a deficit of about a 7 million barrels of oil per day. They cover that huge deficit by importing oil from mainly West Asia. Because of this massive consumption and deficit US can never become a major global supplier. The reason why you see a country like Saudi Arabia export this much oil is because they have a tiny domestic consumption (3 million bpd I believe)! I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves.
You mean the Strategic Oil Reserves? Over the past year because the oil production by OPEC in general and also oil exports to US has decreased, that has forced them into releasing their strategic reserves at about 2-3 million barrels per day to cover the difference. It is currently sitting at its lowest. I did some calculations a while back that if I recall it correctly those reserves at best case scenario (no embargo) would last us less than a year. But in case of an embargo (7 million deficit) they would last about a month or two considering the ridiculously huge oil consumption by United States which is between 19 to 20 million bpd. Another problem is that the oil US has which they are extracting is also running out! At this rate of extraction it will only last 3 or 4 more years. As you may know, when you tap into these resources their extraction becomes harder. In other words if today they are extracting something like 12 million bpd, next year they will be able to extract less like 9 million bpd because of pressure drops and other complications as it reaches the end. That means the 7 million bpd deficit would grow even bigger. The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years?
You mean the embargo? It's hard to say but right now I'd say the chances are little to none. If things take a turn for the worse it is possible though. I think that there is a lot of oil in the USA, but the fields are either closed or not being explored due to government policy. With an oil price of 80-90 dollars per barrel, it is profitable to sell it even from the USA. On the one hand, if your calculations are correct, then the United States must exert political pressure on Israel in order to end the conflict, otherwise if other countries enter the conflict, the price of oil may rise to $150 per barrel.
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November 03, 2023, 03:47:41 PM |
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The embargo was declared on October 17, 1973 in response to US President Richard Nixon's order for Operation Nickel Grass, which supplied US weapons to Israel. The latter was at that moment repelling attacks from Egypt and Syria, who intended to return the territories captured by the Israelis during the Six-Day War of 1967."
I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves. The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years?
Much has changed since that date, and it seems that the United States and the rest of the world powers have understood the lesson. These countries have begun to adopt policies to contain countries that have banned the export of oil and gas to them. Today, all countries in the region are friends of the United States, and the United States has military bases in all of those countries, and I mean here Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the Emirates, in addition to overthrowing the Iraqi regime and continuing pressure on the Iranian regime. Do you really think that there are those who still dare to carry out these movements that are hostile to the direct interests of the West? I think that the US will lose political influence. The first call was the withdrawal of the army from Afghanistan. Direct global conflicts are unlikely due to the presence of nuclear weapons in many countries, but economic wars will exhaust opponents. The US and Europe will not win a guerrilla war against a billion people in the Middle East. Here it is necessary to clarify exactly which region you are talking about because America has actually lost its political influence on the Asian side, and for this reason some may imagine that it is no longer able to confront the Gulf region and the Middle East alone. But on the other hand, it succeeded in having a greater influence on the countries of the Arab Gulf and the Middle East using various mechanisms. Neither Saudi Arabia nor any classic power in the Gulf region is capable of challenging the United States and the world today as it did in the seventies. The United States took a lesson from what happened, especially after OPEC failed at that time to limit the effects of the embargo. At the same time, those countries that succeeded in influencing the economies of major countries at that time no longer think about using the same pressure again because of the policies of connections of interests. I think that the United States cannot wage a full-fledged war in the east. Their aircraft carriers are old and more like a large floating target that is destroyed by a supersonic missile. Therefore, wars have always been successfully waged by puppet politicians. This is actually what the United States succeeded in achieving. Assigning agents to carry out the war to achieve its interests on its behalf, and the United States, instead of developing its military fleet, sells weapons to its agents. Facts have changed radically since the 1970s, and Western powers are never in a position to contain a similar crisis. Likewise, the Arab countries that supported the ban. It is no longer in its interest to take such steps without taking into account its own interests, which have become closely linked to Western countries.
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WillyAp
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November 03, 2023, 06:31:42 PM |
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I think that the US will lose political influence. The first call was the withdrawal of the army from Afghanistan. Direct global conflicts are unlikely due to the presence of nuclear weapons in many countries, but economic wars will exhaust opponents. The US and Europe will not win a guerrilla war against a billion people in the Middle East.
What makes you think that? There is a huge difference between armies of conscripts and an armee of professionals. Because an aircraft carrier is from the 70s its tech could well be from 2015.
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topbitcoin
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November 03, 2023, 10:10:47 PM |
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The embargo was declared on October 17, 1973 in response to US President Richard Nixon's order for Operation Nickel Grass, which supplied US weapons to Israel. The latter was at that moment repelling attacks from Egypt and Syria, who intended to return the territories captured by the Israelis during the Six-Day War of 1967."
I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves. The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years?
Much has changed since that date, and it seems that the United States and the rest of the world powers have understood the lesson. These countries have begun to adopt policies to contain countries that have banned the export of oil and gas to them. Today, all countries in the region are friends of the United States, and the United States has military bases in all of those countries, and I mean here Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the Emirates, in addition to overthrowing the Iraqi regime and continuing pressure on the Iranian regime. Do you really think that there are those who still dare to carry out these movements that are hostile to the direct interests of the West? I think that the US will lose political influence. The first call was the withdrawal of the army from Afghanistan. Direct global conflicts are unlikely due to the presence of nuclear weapons in many countries, but economic wars will exhaust opponents. The US and Europe will not win a guerrilla war against a billion people in the Middle East. Along with current developments, the influence of the United States is increasingly fading day by day, several Middle Eastern countries have begun to reunite their relations which were previously fractured due to political tensions and conflicts that tried to divide them. And this peace can be realized after Saudi Arabia and Iran decided to reopen diplomatic relations and chose to join hands rather than continuing to escalate the conflict which would only further increase tensions in the Middle East. And as we know, these two countries are important countries in the Middle East, so this has triggered other countries in the Middle East to decide to do the same thing, namely make peace. Several Middle Eastern countries are starting to realize and reveal who America really is. America is just a country that came to the Middle East like a hero who tried to mediate the conflict that occurred in the Middle East, but behind it all America was the culprit who tried to seize the wealth in the Middle East (Oil).
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Fortify
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November 03, 2023, 11:07:14 PM |
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https://www.bbc.com/russian/international/2013/10/131016_us_oil_embargo_anno"October 17, 2023 marks 50 years since the start of the 1973 Arab oil embargo. On the eve of this anniversary, it was announced that the United States is about to become the main producer of oil and gas on the planet, leaving behind the current champions - Russia and Saudi Arabia. The embargo was declared on October 17, 1973 in response to US President Richard Nixon's order for Operation Nickel Grass, which supplied US weapons to Israel. The latter was at that moment repelling attacks from Egypt and Syria, who intended to return the territories captured by the Israelis during the Six-Day War of 1967." I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves. The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years? We already saw it happen again just a few years ago. When it appears that OPEC was abusing it's stranglehold on the price of oil, America ramped up it's work on fracking and they were forced to bring prices back down again to compete - or even push the fracking industry back out of business. There is a very fine line where they are able to use their vast reserves, up until they make it so uncomfortable that countries start looking to other methods or even extracting it in more difficult ways. The world has come a long way since those days however, with the Middle East holding more power in the equation and having other places that it's possible to sell their oil, like China, but it'll always be at a cheaper price for the foreseeable future.
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WillyAp
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November 03, 2023, 11:10:59 PM |
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Nations have no friends. Some said once, I guess Winston Churchill was that. And its true.
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DrBeer
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November 05, 2023, 08:05:51 PM |
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Not bad news for the market - the UAE made the logical decision, and opposed the aggression of Hamas and their supporters. This means that the largest supplier of oil to the world market will not adhere to the concept of "economic terrorism" against the world economy.
"The UAE condemned Hamas' attack on Israel and hostage-taking The UAE's stance differs markedly from the comments of most other Arab countries in the region, which held Israel responsible."
PS The basis is the Israeli-Emirati peace treaty, also the Abrahamic Treaty, - a treaty on normalization of relations between the State of Israel and the United Arab Emirates, signed on September 15, 2020. The UAE chooses development and the rules of the civilized world.
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serveria.com
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November 06, 2023, 09:36:44 PM |
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Not bad news for the market - the UAE made the logical decision, and opposed the aggression of Hamas and their supporters. This means that the largest supplier of oil to the world market will not adhere to the concept of "economic terrorism" against the world economy.
"The UAE condemned Hamas' attack on Israel and hostage-taking The UAE's stance differs markedly from the comments of most other Arab countries in the region, which held Israel responsible."
PS The basis is the Israeli-Emirati peace treaty, also the Abrahamic Treaty, - a treaty on normalization of relations between the State of Israel and the United Arab Emirates, signed on September 15, 2020. The UAE chooses development and the rules of the civilized world.
They have also condemned Israel's war crimes. Cruel, merciless airstrikes on hospitals, schools, universities, ambulances etc... Btw, embargoes don't work and never did. Here's the latest proof: A Western price cap on Russian oil meant to curb Moscow’s war spending is increasingly losing its punch.
The latest evidence: Oil and gas tax revenue to the Russian budget in October more than doubled from September and rose by more than a quarter from the same month last year, according to data released Friday. That represents a stark turnaround from the beginning of the year when energy revenues tumbled. The rise in Russian oil prices suggests the cap is increasingly unenforceable, the World Bank said in a recent report. “It looks like the energy windfall will allow the government to step up its war effort without additional financing strains,” said Liam Peach, senior emerging-market economist at Capital Economics.
Source: https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/how-russia-games-oil-sanctions-for-big-profits-33b26342
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MusaMohamed
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November 08, 2023, 01:19:47 AM |
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The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years?
The world has something we can not know. Something causes very periodic, cyclic events like pandemic, wars, black swans, financial crisis, recessions. Human don't change themselves, politicians don't change themselves and the world will be still led by most strongest, powerful nations. They will continue to be root causes of World Wars, geo-political conflicts world wide in future. I don't think the world will be in complete peace mode in future and events like Israel - Palestine war, endless conflicts in the Middle East will continue to exist and reappear in future. Next 50 years exactly or sooner, later than 50 years, I don't know. 600 years of war and peace, in one amazing chart
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DrBeer
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November 08, 2023, 10:16:39 AM |
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Oil prices fall to 3-month lows: Chinese data raises demand concerns Oil prices fell to a three-month low on Nov. 8 as weak export data from China raised concerns about global demand for fossil fuels. About it writes Financial Times ( https://www.ft.com/content/4d535605-bade-4130-8b9c-64b883cc47e8). Thus, Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, fell by 0.3% and traded at $ 81.39 per barrel, while US WTI crude fell in price by 0.4% to $ 77.04 per barrel. Chinese exports fell 6.4% in October from a year earlier, below the 3.3% drop forecast by analysts. The moderate strengthening of the dollar, which gained about 0.6% this week against a basket of other major currencies, has also affected oil prices, making fuel more expensive for those holding other currencies. These processes are also influenced by the increase of oil reserves in the USA (as much as one may dream otherwise ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) ). - Last week crude oil reserves in the U.S. rose by almost 12 million barrels, sources told Reuters, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute.
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Hispo
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November 08, 2023, 10:33:02 AM |
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It is very unlikely it will repeat again, I think. Oil producers are now aware of the emergency reserves the United States have in order to keep their country running for some time in case of an embargo, also the United States has some allies which are actually Oil producers, they are not as big producers like Russia or China, but they would certainly help in case of an emergency. It comes to mind the Scandinavian countries and the United Kingdom.
To me, the embargo was a failure by Arab countries, in the end they did not stop USA from providing weapons to Israel and it only make oil infrastructure in the USA stronger and embargo-proof to some degree.
Also, USA becoming the leader in Oil extraction kinda goes against the campaign promises of Joe Biden if I recall correctly. He said it was possible to step down oil production and was willing to do it in favor of renewable energy.
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pooya87
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November 09, 2023, 02:00:06 PM |
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Oil producers are now aware of the emergency reserves the United States have in order to keep their country running for some time in case of an embargo,
"Some time" in best case scenario means a little more than a month. US is the biggest consumer of oil (about 20 million barrels per day) and to cover that massive amount they import a large amount of oil (roughly 8 million barrels per day). Not to mention that US needs to import a ton of other petroleum products to refine the heavy oil they extract in order to be able to use it. Now considering that US oil strategic reserves is currently sitting at 351 million barrels and if we assume in the case of embargo that import would fall to zero that means they can "keep their country running" for only 43 days. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=Walso the United States has some allies which are actually Oil producers, they are not as big producers like Russia or China, but they would certainly help in case of an emergency.
Remember last year when the grain exports from Ukraine and Russia halted and other exporters stopped too? That's exactly what would happen in case of an embargo. Others will stop exporting too because they'll have to embrace for the price shoot up to control their own domestic prices. He said it was possible to step down oil production and was willing to do it in favor of renewable energy.
They'll have no other choice but to move to renewable energies because the extractable oil supply in US is going down fast. If my calculations are correct in about 2 or 3 years the production would fall significantly and in less than 5 years there won't be any more oil in US left to extract. P.S. I don't think the chances of embargo at this stage is high enough to be a concern. However remember that in case of an embargo the biggest problem is going to be the price. Last time in the short period of the conflict in the region followed by the embargo oil price went from around $4 to above $12. In other words it won't matter if US (or others) have reserves, the price will still be extremely high.
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