Events that lead to the adoption of a spot Bitcoin ETF

[zasad@]

https://www.sec.gov/os/sunshine-act-notices/sunshine-act-notice-closed-11022023
"Sunshine Act Meetings

TIME AND DATE: 2:00 p.m. on Thursday, November 2, 2023.

The subject matter of the closed meeting will consist of the following topics:

Institution and settlement of injunctive actions;
Institution and settlement of administrative proceedings;
Resolution of litigation claims; and
Other matters relating to examinations and enforcement proceedings."

Therefore, yesterday there was a slight increase in Bitcoin prices. Of course, I don’t know what issues are being discussed there, but I have heard many opinions that the adoption of ETFs is close.

[1715239608]

1715239608

[hugeblack]

Can you add more information, this is the first time I heard about Sunshine Act Meetings and even the link you added does not provide much data.

Therefore, yesterday there was a slight increase in Bitcoin prices. Of course, I don’t know what issues are being discussed there, but I have heard many opinions that the adoption of ETFs is close.

I don't know why there is so much enthusiasm about ETFs. We have two months to see how things will go, but until then, theories and speculation will increase greatly, and most of them may not provide useful information or real analysis, so I stopped following such news.

[Fiatless]

Can you add more information, this is the first time I heard about Sunshine Act Meetings and even the link you added does not provide much data.

The Sunshine Act is part of the Freedom of Information Law that grants the public access to information about the government and its agencies to promote transparency. In some cases, citizens have the right to attend these meetings. But this Act still empowers the government agency to bar the public from attending these meetings especially when issues like litigation are been discussed.

The above Sunshine Act Meeting was not open to the public because the SEC was considering court judgment. So we have to wait for the SEC to announce the resolutions of the meeting.

Therefore, yesterday there was a slight increase in Bitcoin prices. Of course, I don’t know what issues are being discussed there, but I have heard many opinions that the adoption of ETFs is close.

I don't know why there is so much enthusiasm about ETFs. We have two months to see how things will go, but until then, theories and speculation will increase greatly, and most of them may not provide useful information or real analysis, so I stopped following such news.

The SEC must decide on the ARK Bitcoin ETF application on or before the end of the 240-day review process which will end in January 2024. Until then, we have to follow our plans and beware of FUD.

[dansus021]

Etf news is all over the place yet there is no single bitcoin spot etf is approved by the sec.

In my opinion the adoption of bitcoin in the etf wrap is good to push even more adopter and people who curious about the crypto but it seems the sec won't approve it until the final deadline 😭

And other news is that the vanguard dont want join the bitcoin etf if the vanguard join i think there will be something in sec

[zasad@]

Etf news is all over the place yet there is no single bitcoin spot etf is approved by the sec.

In my opinion the adoption of bitcoin in the etf wrap is good to push even more adopter and people who curious about the crypto but it seems the sec won't approve it until the final deadline 😭

And other news is that the vanguard dont want join the bitcoin etf if the vanguard join i think there will be something in sec

All the large speculators who bought their bitcoins and are waiting for the approval of the spot ETF are already rubbing their hands with the expected profit. The most ideal time for this is the period before the halving and if a manipulator is present in this market, then the SEC will approve spot ETFs.
In other countries, these funds exist and honestly are not in great demand.

[Fiatless]

Etf news is all over the place yet there is no single bitcoin spot etf is approved by the sec.

In my opinion the adoption of bitcoin in the etf wrap is good to push even more adopter and people who curious about the crypto but it seems the sec won't approve it until the final deadline 😭

And other news is that the vanguard dont want join the bitcoin etf if the vanguard join i think there will be something in sec

Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley said that the asset-management firm will not join the spot bitcoin ETF just like other firms like BlackRock and Fidelity. I see it as the personal decision of the company and that's their business. For now, we are focusing on the outcome of the application of other asset managers that are interested in bitcoin. 

All the large speculators who bought their bitcoins and are waiting for the approval of the spot ETF are already rubbing their hands with the expected profit. The most ideal time for this is the period before the halving and if a manipulator is present in this market, then the SEC will approve spot ETFs.
In other countries, these funds exist and honestly are not in great demand.

Next year will be the perfect time for the SEC to approve the spot bitcoin ETF since it will coincide with the halving. Although there is no valid information from the SEC but from speculation and predictions, the SEC has little or no reason to deny these applications. I am also one of the spectators who is patiently rubbing my hands waiting for my profits .     

[dansus021]

All the large speculators who bought their bitcoins and are waiting for the approval of the spot ETF are already rubbing their hands with the expected profit. The most ideal time for this is the period before the halving and if a manipulator is present in this market, then the SEC will approve spot ETFs.
In other countries, these funds exist and honestly are not in great demand.

Well you're kinda true since I see a great big green candle all over the place and Bitcoin is still sideaway in 35K whale maybe already bought at 28-30K level and waiting for the news

and when the time comes this is gonna happen 

Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley said that the asset-management firm will not join the spot bitcoin ETF just like other firms like BlackRock and Fidelity. I see it as the personal decision of the company and that's their business. For now, we are focusing on the outcome of the application of other asset managers that are interested in bitcoin.   

Yeah I read the news here - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-ceo-says-asset-management-042217244.html

tho there is also a recent news from twitter account Db - https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1722329852777275443 TLDR, I think

An ETF cannot be approved whilst it is in the comment period

If the SEC wants to be 'fair' and approve all spot applications at the same time then it would have to do so when there are no outstanding filings in a comment period

Which is between 9th-17th Nov, after the current comment periods end and before new ones begin - or early Jan 2024

[Kemarit]

Etf news is all over the place yet there is no single bitcoin spot etf is approved by the sec.

In my opinion the adoption of bitcoin in the etf wrap is good to push even more adopter and people who curious about the crypto but it seems the sec won't approve it until the final deadline 😭

And other news is that the vanguard dont want join the bitcoin etf if the vanguard join i think there will be something in sec

All the large speculators who bought their bitcoins and are waiting for the approval of the spot ETF are already rubbing their hands with the expected profit. The most ideal time for this is the period before the halving and if a manipulator is present in this market, then the SEC will approve spot ETFs.
In other countries, these funds exist and honestly are not in great demand.

And with that meeting, maybe it's just a matter of time before an approval will be there. Again, there could be huge pressures on the shoulder of SEC right now as the entities that are asking for approval are not just simply entities but they are huge in the financial world with trillions of dollars between this companies so they really weld huge influence even at a government regulars like SEC.

@hugeblack - yeah everything is pure speculation right now, but it sometimes fuels this bullish sentiments on the market. And I think it's one reason why we almost close to $36,000 right now.

[zasad@]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-trades-past-36-000-062931832.html
"A brief window of at least eight days opened on Thursday for the SEC to “theoretically issue approval orders,” according to a note by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas. “Even if approvals don’t arrive this month, we still believe there’s a 90% chance of approval by Jan. 10,” they wrote.
The optimism of the potential approval by the regulator, after more than a decade of deliberation, has bolstered the token more than 120% this year and Caroline Mauron, co-founder of digital-asset derivatives liquidity provider Orbit Markets, sees a “sustained interest in bets on a further Bitcoin rally.” In comparison, global stocks have risen a modest 10% over the same period."

So far everything is going according to plan. I will sell Bitcoin on the news of a spot ETF

U.S. SEC Said to Open Talks with Grayscale on Spot Bitcoin ETF Push
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/11/08/us-sec-said-to-open-talks-with-grayscale-on-spot-bitcoin-etf-push/

[safar1980]

Kevin O'Leary Warns Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Could Be 18 Months Away
Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary, aka Mr. Wonderful, has cautioned that it could take another year and a half for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). He emphasized that we will not see a spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S. until there is a crypto exchange that’s compliant with the SEC.

[suzanne5223]

Kevin O'Leary Warns Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Could Be 18 Months Away
Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary, aka Mr. Wonderful, has cautioned that it could take another year and a half for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). He emphasized that we will not see a spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S. until there is a crypto exchange that’s compliant with the SEC.

I never trust anything that has to do with the government and the funny thing is that the Bitcoin spot ETF may have been approved ever since the BlackRock iShares spot Bitcoin ETF was listed on Nasdaq and DTCC but they chose not to make it available to the public so that the BlackRock can accumulate enough BTC when cheap and later announce it to the public to max their profit.

[Fiatless]

Kevin O'Leary Warns Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Could Be 18 Months Away
Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary, aka Mr. Wonderful, has cautioned that it could take another year and a half for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). He emphasized that we will not see a spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S. until there is a crypto exchange that’s compliant with the SEC.

I believe Kevin O’Leary is right because the government will always want to ensure that there are regulations that will give it total control over the ETF. Approving what you cannot control is like buying a car that you cannot drive. But I doubt if it will take up to one year and six months for such approval.  

There are already existing laws that will help the SEC to control crypto-related business to some extent. The SEC should not expect to have perfect regulatory laws for the ETF because it is new to the US market. More laws will be made after the approval based on new developments. The SEC has also lost some court cases that might force them to do the needful before the time frame predicted by Kevin O’Leary.

[zasad@]

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/11/13/the-crypto-market-rally-looks-overdone-jpmorgan-says/
“A spot bitcoin ETF approval would help crypto markets to attract fresh/new capital as the newly-approved ETFs see inflows,” and the “approval would cement a win for the crypto industry and a setback for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) thus making it more likely that going forward the SEC approach towards the crypto industry will soften,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.
The bank says it is skeptical of both arguments. Instead of new capital entering the crypto sector, it is more likely that existing capital will move from current bitcoin products such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), bitcoin futures ETFs and listed mining companies, into the newly approved spot ETFS.
JPMorgan notes that such ETFs already exist in Canada and Europe and have gained “little interest from investors since their inception.”
__
It has been said here several times that spot cryptocurrencies ETFs have problems only in the USA. In other countries they work and are not very popular.

[zasad@]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-met-sec-officials-discuss-053146019.html
"Representatives from BlackRock and Nasdaq recently engaged in discussions with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the possibility of listing a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). In a memo released by the SEC on November 20, it was revealed that BlackRock presented two potential redemption models for its iShares Bitcoin Trust: one involving in-kind transactions and the other using cash.

There is increasing speculation that the SEC may be nearing a decision on approving a spot Bitcoin ETF for U.S. markets. However, uncertainty surrounds the response of SEC officials and the likelihood of approval, given the history of delays and rejections in this area. During the same period, representatives from Grayscale also met with SEC officials, as they too seek to list their own Bitcoin ETF."

BlackRock are very serious guys who will soon bring forward the launch of ETFs

[FP91G]

“This is a field that is rife with bad actors and rife with fraud and manipulation and money laundering,” SEC Chair Gary Gensler said on Wednesday, without specifically addressing questions about applications for spot bitcoin ETFs.
Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler stayed mum on Wednesday when asked by journalists if the industry could soon see any action surrounding the applications for spot bitcoin ETFs the agency is reviewing.
https://www.theblock.co/post/265315/sec-chair-gary-gensler-stays-mum-on-prospects-for-a-spot-bitcoin-etf-says-he-wont-pre-judge-matter?

[zasad@]

I would like to share my latest opinion on the spot ETF. The market is rising on anticipation of news about the adoption of a spot ETF, and I am selling bitcoins.
Although I myself wrote about the possible imminent adoption of a spot ETF, I do not believe that it will be resolved soon, although I do not rule out this possibility. When there is a lot of news about it, this is a signal for me to start selling. The reason why spot ETFs will not be allowed is because of the complete lack of regulation and many unresolved issues in this industry.
Although ETF supporters also have a strong lobby.

[zasad@]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-offer-spot-crypto-trading-130000876.html?
"Coinbase to Offer Spot Crypto Trading Outside US in Global Expansion
(Bloomberg) -- Coinbase Global Inc. is rolling out spot crypto trading on its international exchange as part of a global expansion, saying some users are wary of US venues due to the country’s uncertain regulatory backdrop."

___

Although Coinbase has unresolved issues with the SEC, with the right policies and lobbying these issues will be resolved. Their L2 Base solution will become a major platform for institutional investors.
Everything is changing very quickly and a large volume of news about negotiations between large companies and SEC already suggests that the spot ETF may be accepted in the 1st quarter of 2024.

[Fiatless]

I would like to share my latest opinion on the spot ETF. The market is rising on anticipation of news about the adoption of a spot ETF, and I am selling bitcoins.
Although I myself wrote about the possible imminent adoption of a spot ETF, I do not believe that it will be resolved soon, although I do not rule out this possibility. When there is a lot of news about it, this is a signal for me to start selling. The reason why spot ETFs will not be allowed is because of the complete lack of regulation and many unresolved issues in this industry.
Although ETF supporters also have a strong lobby.

Nobody can predict the outcome of the spot Bitcoin ETF applications because the SEC has not issued any statement regarding these applications. The companies involved have also remained optimistic that it will be approved. I also share the same thoughts that the SEC will approve the ETF only when they have made robust policies to checkmate the sector. But it seems the SEC will approve it because they have been meeting these applicants seeking more clarification about how they intend to coordinate the ETF.

Everyone has the right to decide how to control his Bitcoin holding, but, I am not selling any time soon. Even if the SEC fails to approve these ETFs which is quite unlikely, I also believe that the Bitcoin halving will also an impact on the price. Regarding the regulatory laws, the SEC has already made some laws to ensure the control of the ETF, and more laws will be made and implemented after the ETF is approved. The SEC doesn't need to make all the policies that will hide the ETF to approve it. More laws will be enacted after the takeoff of the spot ETF because experience is always the best teacher.

[zasad@]

I would like to share my latest opinion on the spot ETF. The market is rising on anticipation of news about the adoption of a spot ETF, and I am selling bitcoins.
Although I myself wrote about the possible imminent adoption of a spot ETF, I do not believe that it will be resolved soon, although I do not rule out this possibility. When there is a lot of news about it, this is a signal for me to start selling. The reason why spot ETFs will not be allowed is because of the complete lack of regulation and many unresolved issues in this industry.
Although ETF supporters also have a strong lobby.

Nobody can predict the outcome of the spot Bitcoin ETF applications because the SEC has not issued any statement regarding these applications. The companies involved have also remained optimistic that it will be approved. I also share the same thoughts that the SEC will approve the ETF only when they have made robust policies to checkmate the sector. But it seems the SEC will approve it because they have been meeting these applicants seeking more clarification about how they intend to coordinate the ETF.

Everyone has the right to decide how to control his Bitcoin holding, but, I am not selling any time soon. Even if the SEC fails to approve these ETFs which is quite unlikely, I also believe that the Bitcoin halving will also an impact on the price. Regarding the regulatory laws, the SEC has already made some laws to ensure the control of the ETF, and more laws will be made and implemented after the ETF is approved. The SEC doesn't need to make all the policies that will hide the ETF to approve it. More laws will be enacted after the takeoff of the spot ETF because experience is always the best teacher.

It seems like you don't understand what the problem is. I agree with you that the spot ETF should be accepted, but one thing is that no one knows exactly who owns the majority of bitcoins. There is very little liquidity on the crypto market itself and it is provided by the same marker makers who monitor each other.
If you have several million bitcoins, you will not be able to sell it at the current price.

[safar1980]

Gensler says SEC's 'new look' at spot bitcoin ETF applications has involved recent court rulings
Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler said Thursday that the agency's "new look" at applications for a spot bitcoin ETF had been taking recent court rulings into consideration.

While the SEC has for years denied previous applications for a spot bitcoin fund, a panel of judges who ordered the regulator to reconsider a failed bid from Grayscale Investments may be starting to tip the balance. The agency is considering more than a dozen applications now from major asset managers including BlackRock and Fidelity.