Worldwide Coupling Between Bitcoin and Electricity Prices

[Ryndu]

hey all.
i wrote a short paper discussing the idea of a phenomenon i suspect will occur once the price of bitcoin shoots up considerably.
as the title says (and is the title of the paper as well),
i suspect a very strong correlation between the bitcoin and electricity prices in the future.
that correlation, i think, will start to kick in once the majority of the electricity providers become bitcoin miners as well (as a side hustle at first).

for me, at least, this framework of thinking about the bitcoin miners in the future made me understand much more deeply the 'pompous' (or so i thought) declarations of michael saylor about bitcoin being "monetary energy" and the line he always repeats "all energy will be priced in bitcoin".
i watched many of his talks but he never seemed to explain how that will happen (aside from wishing all governments will suddenly shift from the dollar to bitcoin).

it is a short and simple read and i would like your take on the idea (sorry if someone has wrote of this before, i did not look too hard into it).

note that i did not want to expand the discussion about the bottom line of the paper. that is for a different one.


https://www.academia.edu/108884737/Worldwide_Coupling_Between_Bitcoin_and_Electricity_Prices

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[hugeblack]

Energy prices will not be fixed or uniform in all parts of the world due to the difficulty of transporting them easily from the place of generation to consumption. However, on the contrary, mining farms can move from one place to another in an easier way than transporting the energy source.
they are found at certain times, such as after floods and in places where electricity is generated from sources. Renewable and cheap. It is easier to make a profit running a mining farm than in other places where electricity prices may be high.

In other words, the average electricity price will not be closely related to the price of Bitcoin or the average cost of mining due to the huge difference in generation costs and the ease of transporting mining equipment.

[Ryndu]

Energy prices will not be fixed or uniform in all parts of the world due to the difficulty of transporting them easily from the place of generation to consumption. However, on the contrary, mining farms can move from one place to another in an easier way than transporting the energy source.
they are found at certain times, such as after floods and in places where electricity is generated from sources. Renewable and cheap. It is easier to make a profit running a mining farm than in other places where electricity prices may be high.

In other words, the average electricity price will not be closely related to the price of Bitcoin or the average cost of mining due to the huge difference in generation costs and the ease of transporting mining equipment.

there is no need to consider very marginal cases such disaster stricken areas shortly after the disasters occur.
the difficulty of transport is non-existent if you place your power plant in the vicinity of the population (as such is the general case).
you also assume a small power pool. i mentioned the incentive is there to build a power production capacity far larger than the one needed to supply the nearby population, due to mining profits.
the correlation will probably start appearing once the practice of expanding the power capacity of the plants to capitalize on bitcoin mining becomes a common practice around the world.

the cost of production might not be so different for different parts of the world in the future as you might expect, with giant batteries becoming ever more cheap, which will drastically ease the exploit of natural renewable energies such as wind and solar.

[hugeblack]

the correlation will probably start appearing once the practice of expanding the power capacity of the plants to capitalize on bitcoin mining becomes a common practice around the world.

This could happen if Bitcoin adoption increases so that governments consider taking advantage of some of the wasted resources and using them in Bitcoin mining, just as happens with recycling, but this will not happen until Bitcoin is used in international trade (more than 6 trillion), and then I think that mining It will not directly affect the price due to the cost of mining Bitcoin versus its price, so the current correlation, which always appears at the bottom (usually the lowest price corresponding to the cost of mining), may disappear.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I was going to read it, but it asks me to register or log in with my email or facebook, and I'll pass. If you want to put a summary of the main ideas here and we can debate since, as you also say:

note that i did not want to expand the discussion about the bottom line of the paper. that is for a different one.

A couple of comments:

i think, will start to kick in once the majority of the electricity providers become bitcoin miners as well (as a side hustle at first).

I don't see it as impossible, but I have no reason to believe it will happen either.

for me, at least, this framework of thinking about the bitcoin miners in the future made me understand much more deeply the 'pompous' (or so i thought) declarations of michael saylor about bitcoin being "monetary energy" and the line he always repeats "all energy will be priced in bitcoin".

Yes, well, he is very smart and talks a good game, but he has become a kind of messiah who seems to be going off the deep end with some of the claims he makes, such as that all real estate investment is going to bitcoin.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Bitcoin is a huge and voluminous aspect to start discussion with and if we are to also consider the electricity prices around the world, it's something that has been unstable as the bitcoin price itself, there's high demand in both and that us why we have found bitcoin mining with the use of electricity demands to be more challenging with the centralized governing body, bitcoin will remain volatile while the electricity demands depends on the available alternatives, this will also make the price adaptable when there's less dependance on electricity.

[bitmover]

i suspect a very strong correlation between the bitcoin and electricity prices in the future.
that correlation, i think, will start to kick in once the majority of the electricity providers become bitcoin miners as well (as a side hustle at first).

I don't think this will ever happen.

Energy price depends on the technology used (hydroelectric,  nuclear, solar, coal, etc), natural resources supply, location, taxes, and so on.

Bitcoin is just one kind of energy intensive industries . There are many others, such as aluminum,  manufacturing,  and so on. Those industries usually to bee located where energy is cheaper.

What drives bitcoin mining farms location is the energy price in that location, not the other way around.

[franky1]

the reason for bitcoins MARKET PRICE volatility speculation is due to electric

did you know in slavic countries people can effectively mine for 4cents/kw. where as island countries like hawaii/japan it can be as much as 50cents/kw
calculating in the hardware costs show correlations between ATL and ATH period windows testing those boundaries


this range allows for a market window of speculation.. island countries will happily buy bitcoin right upto the ATH because its still cheaper to buy on the market at ATH than to self mine.. and the ATH peaks at the point where its no longer feasible for even the expensive miners to buy on the market. (demand stops)

however there is another number the "underlying value" support. this is the baseline no one wants to sell below. its the lowest cost on the planet to acquire bitcoin. and when it reaches this point no one wants to sell

as energy prices increase even at the most efficient mining farms on the planet. this helps increase the underlying value support line(below market rate) which supports the market from going below that amount

[Promocodeudo]

This is likely possible but the possibility of this is slim because Bitcoin needs to be considered as legal tender in most of the world, the world is revolving people are going into renewable energy which is more cheap and reliable than the usual hydroelectricity for sure Bitcoin price will rise because of the mining process that involves a high level of electricity be it renewable or hydro, but what I won't say is the electricity price rising at as bitcoin price rises, I see a situation where many people will start investing in electric once bitcoin is been considered as a legal tender, and this might push electricity tariff down, because of the competition that will be experienced in that sector.

[DrBeer]

The impact of bitcoin mining can INCREASE the cost of generating electricity if it consumes an appreciable portion of the electricity generated.

Today the situation looks like this: ~27 thousand TWh of electricity is generated in the world, the share consumed by Bitcoin mining is 0.43%. Total energy production in the world reaches 168 thousand TWh, Bitcoin's share is 0.15%.
We cannot say that this is at the "error level", but mining does not have a significant impact on global generation at the moment. It can be assumed that with increasing complexity, consumption will increase, but in my opinion, the impact can be seen if mining will consume somewhere between 5 and 10% of the world's electricity.

[coupable]

Your analysis makes sense regarding the relationship between Bitcoin mining and electricity prices. However, several things must be taken into consideration to reach more realistic conclusions:
First, electricity prices are linked to the cost of production, which changes depending on the energy source. This means that the energy produced by solar panel farms is different in cost and price from the energy produced by nuclear reactors. Electrical energy producers cannot work in isolation from these mechanisms, which in turn are the responsibility of other companies that undertake interconnection and distribution operations.
Secondly, most of these companies are fully owned by the state, or the state shares ownership in them. Of course, these countries will not allow the transition from investment in consumer electricity to the mining sector, which is capable of consuming huge resources, and they in turn play the role of adjusting prices to be in line with the purchasing power of the beneficiaries.

[slapper]

Your theory is an interesting look at how bitcoin and power prices might affect each other in the future. I think your way of doing things is both new and worth giving some thought to

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that power companies could start mining bitcoin. As our economy becomes more digital, I see this as a reasonable next step. Taking into account how much energy mining needs, the link you're expecting makes sense. As the value of bitcoin rises, energy providers will have more reason to mine, which could have a direct effect on the price of electricity

"Monetary energy" as thought by Michael Saylor fits with this idea. Your paper starts to fill in the blanks where his answers fall short by showing how to do what he mentions. The change from fiat currencies backed by the government to bitcoin is a huge one that I don't think will happen quickly or as easily as flipping a switch. Market structures and societal views will need to change slowly but significantly in order for this to happen

[Sebas.tian]

Bitcoin is a huge and voluminous aspect to start discussion with and if we are to also consider the electricity prices around the world, it's something that has been unstable as the bitcoin price itself, there's high demand in both and that us why we have found bitcoin mining with the use of electricity demands to be more challenging with the centralized governing body, bitcoin will remain volatile while the electricity demands depends on the available alternatives, this will also make the price adaptable when there's less dependance on electricity.

Bitcoin still more stable and enjoyable than the electricity according to my research despite that government use to promote energy supply in different countries of the world, but Bitcoin is dominating all over the world without the help of the government, and investors are investing in Bitcoin more than the electricity because Bitcoin is trusted and reliable for long term investments and short term investment. Government has the authority over the electricity which they can decide where to supply energy in the environment to enjoy their taxes and where not to supply not to enjoy the energy supply which is not like that in Bitcoin, as long you have the knowledge of Bitcoin and you know when to buy and when to sell your Bitcoin, you will definitely enjoy the benefits of Bitcoin.  Anything can happen to electricity that will make people living in that particular country not to experience light through out the months until government release money to fix it before they can continue enjoying their service.

[Sayeds56]

hey all.
i wrote a short paper discussing the idea of a phenomenon i suspect will occur once the price of bitcoin shoots up considerably.
as the title says (and is the title of the paper as well),
i suspect a very strong correlation between the bitcoin and electricity prices in the future.
that correlation, i think, will start to kick in once the majority of the electricity providers become bitcoin miners as well (as a side hustle at first).

for me, at least, this framework of thinking about the bitcoin miners in the future made me understand much more deeply the 'pompous' (or so i thought) declarations of michael saylor about bitcoin being "monetary energy" and the line he always repeats "all energy will be priced in bitcoin".
i watched many of his talks but he never seemed to explain how that will happen (aside from wishing all governments will suddenly shift from the dollar to bitcoin).

it is a short and simple read and i would like your take on the idea (sorry if someone has wrote of this before, i did not look too hard into it).

note that i did not want to expand the discussion about the bottom line of the paper. that is for a different one.


https://www.academia.edu/108884737/Worldwide_Coupling_Between_Bitcoin_and_Electricity_Prices

While correlation between electricity consumption is note-able, but its magnitude is not so significant to impact the electricity prices. Additionally, in future when Bitcoin adoption more widespread, the business and individuals are increasingly switching towards green sources of energy such as solar panels, even in developing counties. Therefore, Bitcoin mining companies will prioritize to relay on green energy rather than electricity produced by fossil oil, to minimize their operational cost.

[Renampun]

hey all.
i wrote a short paper discussing the idea of a phenomenon i suspect will occur once the price of bitcoin shoots up considerably.
as the title says (and is the title of the paper as well),
i suspect a very strong correlation between the bitcoin and electricity prices in the future.
that correlation, i think, will start to kick in once the majority of the electricity providers become bitcoin miners as well (as a side hustle at first).

for me, at least, this framework of thinking about the bitcoin miners in the future made me understand much more deeply the 'pompous' (or so i thought) declarations of michael saylor about bitcoin being "monetary energy" and the line he always repeats "all energy will be priced in bitcoin".
i watched many of his talks but he never seemed to explain how that will happen (aside from wishing all governments will suddenly shift from the dollar to bitcoin).

it is a short and simple read and i would like your take on the idea (sorry if someone has wrote of this before, i did not look too hard into it).

note that i did not want to expand the discussion about the bottom line of the paper. that is for a different one.


https://www.academia.edu/108884737/Worldwide_Coupling_Between_Bitcoin_and_Electricity_Prices

The government controls the electricity in their country, no private sector will be able to take it, discussing whether there will be a time when the government makes Bitcoin mining a side business is still not certain, however, it is not an easy decision, especially since there are still many countries which has not recognized bitcoin as one of the legal means of payment.

but it has also crossed my mind, that in the future electricity will be very abundant and to overcome this, bitcoin mining must be built on a large scale, we don't know how the politics will be in each country but I am sure that bitcoin will never be rejected by the world again.

[yhiaali3]

the cost of production might not be so different for different parts of the world in the future as you might expect, with giant batteries becoming ever more cheap, which will drastically ease the exploit of natural renewable energies such as wind and solar.

I don't know where you are from, but this is not true. The prices of batteries here in my country have doubled horribly and become unbearable, which has led to an increase in the cost of solar energy, which relies mainly on batteries. Solar energy is no longer cheap at all.

I do not know about the rest of the countries, but in general I expect that it is the same in most countries due to the high inflation that most countries, even developed ones, suffer from, which is reflected in the insanely high prices of raw materials, including batteries.

[NotATether]

there is no need to consider very marginal cases such disaster stricken areas shortly after the disasters occur.
the difficulty of transport is non-existent if you place your power plant in the vicinity of the population (as such is the general case).
you also assume a small power pool. i mentioned the incentive is there to build a power production capacity far larger than the one needed to supply the nearby population, due to mining profits.
the correlation will probably start appearing once the practice of expanding the power capacity of the plants to capitalize on bitcoin mining becomes a common practice around the world.

the cost of production might not be so different for different parts of the world in the future as you might expect, with giant batteries becoming ever more cheap, which will drastically ease the exploit of natural renewable energies such as wind and solar.

As you said, electricity prices are different around the world. So that obviously means that the cost of mining a bitcoin (and thus trading it on a local exchange) will be slightly higher or lower than the mean.

But I'm inclined to believe there's only a weak correlation between the two prices, because electricity prices are far more affected by inflation (i.e. the local currency's price - even in the case of USD it can be measured by a 3rd, stable asset e.g. gold) than they are by some random geeks trading on exchanges.

[jaberwock]

While correlation between electricity consumption is note-able, but its magnitude is not so significant to impact the electricity prices. Additionally, in future when Bitcoin adoption more widespread, the business and individuals are increasingly switching towards green sources of energy such as solar panels, even in developing counties. Therefore, Bitcoin mining companies will prioritize to relay on green energy rather than electricity produced by fossil oil, to minimize their operational cost.

If you are a miner then yeah, you will agree with that but I think a lot of miners now are using green energy to save up. Normal BTC users and non-BTC users are no way affected of the electricity cost but electricity on most countries are only increasing naturally on their own and yeah it sucks.

This makes normal individuals to be like the miners who also look for alternatives in order to save as well including the use of solar powered devices. BTC adoption right now is already a widespread and there is only a few percent left for it to be completed to 100 percent. When that happens, I think the load or the electric consumption of mining a BTC is going to increase more.

[stompix]

i suspect a very strong correlation between the bitcoin and electricity prices in the future.
that correlation, i think, will start to kick in once the majority of the electricity providers become bitcoin miners as well (as a side hustle at first).

The daily reward from mining is ~30 million, which would go for 10 billion a year in revenue.
EDF, France's largest electricity provider had an annual revenue of 148 billion, and this is just one provider in one country and not by far the largest in electricity consumption, if we take China for example, the total mining reward would be just 1.2% of their revenue.
How would that work with all of them?
Not to mention an incoming halving!

Besides the whole thing fails to address two misunderstandings:
- bitcoin price determines how much electricity miner would afford to spend to run their gear.
- electricity prices determine only how many miners will be able to mine.
Bitcoin price determines electricity consumption, not the other way around.

The relative ease and cost effective of erecting small power plants using renewableenergies (such as hydro, solar and wind) compared to legacy power plants [5] is giving aclear preference for smaller companies who enter the bitcoin mining space to userenewables rather than siphoning power from existing grid

Name one single company and one data farm that is completely running on wind and solar.
I can name you 4 with more than 200MW that run on coal and gas!

We now assume that local power companies will have enough power production capacityin total ready to answer all the needs of their local grid (because they over-produce to becompetitive in the bitcoin mining industry) so the price naturally goes down when the power is diverted from the mining operation to the grid (due to quick increase in supply).
 

You forgot in both this assumption and the formula to add the price of the gear that is going to be used for mining and you forgot that electricity even solar is not free when you have to cough up $1 million in advance for it to be built, and it takes a lot of time. So the power company will not only have to increase their power generation to have extra available power, god knows why but also to buy gear and to maintain it and to have to deal with the fact that no matter how much they try they will never be able to beat the 2.5 cents per kwh Riot and Mara are mining at.

There won't be any worldwide currency as long as half of the hashrate is in one country and the majority of the rest in another 3 or 4.

[Fortify]

hey all.
i wrote a short paper discussing the idea of a phenomenon i suspect will occur once the price of bitcoin shoots up considerably.
as the title says (and is the title of the paper as well),
i suspect a very strong correlation between the bitcoin and electricity prices in the future.
that correlation, i think, will start to kick in once the majority of the electricity providers become bitcoin miners as well (as a side hustle at first).

for me, at least, this framework of thinking about the bitcoin miners in the future made me understand much more deeply the 'pompous' (or so i thought) declarations of michael saylor about bitcoin being "monetary energy" and the line he always repeats "all energy will be priced in bitcoin".
i watched many of his talks but he never seemed to explain how that will happen (aside from wishing all governments will suddenly shift from the dollar to bitcoin).

it is a short and simple read and i would like your take on the idea (sorry if someone has wrote of this before, i did not look too hard into it).

note that i did not want to expand the discussion about the bottom line of the paper. that is for a different one.

It's not a new idea but it is certainly good to shine more light on the topic as we saw how serious it got during the last crypto peak. China took the "drastic" action at the time of effectively banning all miners because of the impact that power redirection was having on electricity prices across their country, which had a bit of a domino effect and there were even rumbling in places like the European Parliament that the same action should be taken there. The general public hold the ultimate power if things really get too bad and will force the governments to take action if electricity prices get extortionate again, but crypto is a very easy target for politicians in that scenario so it could happen again.