Hong Kong regulators might allow spot ETF

[bbc.reporter]

Investment funds, insitutional investment firms and whales located in Asia will have their own chance on speculating in a spot bitcoin ETF without the need for an American financial institution if spot ETFs are approved.

However, there is something mentioned in the article that implies that spot ETFs might not be as bullish as we might expect. It is mentioned that the take up on futures ETF in Hong Kong has only been modest. I assume the take up on futures ETF in America has also only been modest? Can the data on bitcoin futures ETF be used as a precedent on how strong or weak spot ETFs might be?



The city is weighing retail-investor access to such spot ETFs providing regulatory concerns are met, Securities and Futures Commission Chief Executive Officer Julia Leung said.

The crypto sector sees ETFs as a way of making digital assets more mainstream since the funds are readily available to a variety of investors. Bitcoin has surged 110% this year partly on expectations that the likes of BlackRock Inc. will soon win permission to start the first US spot ETFs for the token.

Both Hong Kong and the US currently allow futures-based crypto ETFs, but the take-up has been modest compared to the overall size of the fund industry. The Asian city current lists the Samsung Bitcoin Futures Active, CSOP Bitcoin Futures and CSOP Ether Futures ETFs. They have combined assets of about $65 million.

Read in full https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-mulls-allowing-spot-231014425.html

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[adaseb]

There are many spot etfs in many countries already this is nothing new. I think somewhere in Europe there was a bitcoin etf from maybe 5 years back.

USA and the sec is the only country pretty much that refuses to launch one and we don’t know why. Look at how many stocks go bankrupt like Bed bath and beyond and they head to $0 while they think that bitcoin network might stall and the etf will go to $0, highly unlikely.

[_act_]

However, there is something mentioned in the article that implies that spot ETFs might not be as bullish as we might expect. It is mentioned that the take up on futures ETF in Hong Kong has only been modest.

In other countries, do not expect bitcoin to be bullish if their SEC approve spot bitcoin ETF, but in United States, expect the market to be bullish as we expect becuase it will first start from people fomo and also US have more than half of the worlds share of traditional market.

There are many spot etfs in many countries already this is nothing new. I think somewhere in Europe there was a bitcoin etf from maybe 5 years back.

The first was in two years ago but listed this year. So the first bitcoin spot ETF in Europe was this year.

Also this is about bitcoin spot ETF in Hong Kong.

[bbc.reporter]

There are many spot etfs in many countries already this is nothing new. I think somewhere in Europe there was a bitcoin etf from maybe 5 years back.

USA and the sec is the only country pretty much that refuses to launch one and we don’t know why. Look at how many stocks go bankrupt like Bed bath and beyond and they head to $0 while they think that bitcoin network might stall and the etf will go to $0, highly unlikely.

In many countries? How many and what are these countries? I am quite certain that there are not many countries offering spot ETFs for bitcoin or other cryptocoins. Also, if it is a spot ETF in a developing country with a small market, we can also be quite certain that it will not have effect on the whole market.

On Bed Bath and Beyond, you cannot compare hehehe. I do not know the story but the stock goes to 0 because the company behind the stock went bankrupt and if a company goes bankrupt, they are ordered to delist their stock from the stock market.

In an case, back on topic, can the data on the take up on futures ETF be used as precedent for how much the take might be for the spot ETF?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

However, there is something mentioned in the article that implies that spot ETFs might not be as bullish as we might expect. It is mentioned that the take up on futures ETF in Hong Kong has only been modest. I assume the take up on futures ETF in America has also only been modest? Can the data on bitcoin futures ETF be used as a precedent on how strong or weak spot ETFs might be?

I am of the opinion that the moment of official acceptance of the ETF will be the perfect place to close short-term longs on bitcoin, because in my opinion the whole thing is highly overhyped.
I can't imagine anyone who would like to have exposure to bitcoin price change and doesn't have it due to the lack of an ETF. Seriously, even if you dont trust crypto exchanges or don't know how to store your crypto, my regulated broker that I use to buy stocks and bonds from around the world has 140 crypto pairs available in the form of CFDs.

people are so hyped that they expect that spot etf will do to the price of bitcoin what it did to the price of gold, except:

To tell you the truth, I personally am more skeptical that this ETF will give as much to Bitcoin as it did to gold. Gold is hard to buy, hard to sell, each transaction carries the risk of fraud (fake gold), requires a physical transfer to the mint/store and has a huge spread. Gold ETF solved all these problems and made it possible for you to buy physical gold in 2 clicks from home. The same cannot be said for bitcoin, because bitcoin is like gold with build in ETF. It's easy to buy, easy to sell, divisible to cents. And it's not like the ETF will open doors to big institutions either. Microstrategy didn't need an ETF to buy nearly 1% of all bitcoins.

I will also add that hardly anyone adds to this comparison the fact that gold has been in consolidation for 20 years and sooner or later it would explode. This was done 2 years after the introduction of the ETF. There is no evidence that there is any causality here. The price did not explode on the listing day.

[OgNasty]

Every country is going to have to offer their people a Bitcoin spot ETF in the future. Not doing so would be hurting themselves financially and their future prospects. Even though Vanguard claims they never will, I’m sure they too will not be able to resist the fees and cries of their customers to bring a Bitcoin spot ETF product to market.

[NotATether]

Every country is going to have to offer their people a Bitcoin spot ETF in the future. Not doing so would be hurting themselves financially and their future prospects. Even though Vanguard claims they never will, I’m sure they too will not be able to resist the fees and cries of their customers to bring a Bitcoin spot ETF product to market.

Yeah, it seems like every developed government with a competent financial system is under pressure from investors to approve at least one Bitcoin ETF application.

Maybe those other investment houses who are declining to make a Bitcoin ETF are going to be chasing the rest of the pack like laggards pretty soon once the next halving kicks in.

[bbc.reporter]

Every country is going to have to offer their people a Bitcoin spot ETF in the future. Not doing so would be hurting themselves financially and their future prospects. Even though Vanguard claims they never will, I’m sure they too will not be able to resist the fees and cries of their customers to bring a Bitcoin spot ETF product to market.

Agreed, however, the question I am presenting is whether the only modest take up of the futures ETF in America and in Hong Kong could be taken as a precedent for the spot ETF's performance. I reckon if thr answer is yes or maybe then similar to @Tytanowy Janusz's speculation, the effect of the spot ETFs on bitcoin might be overhyped.

[GreatArkansas]

This is pressure in the United States of America (USA) because there could be some challenges to each country which for me it will be China versus the USA.
And this pressure between countries about ETFs will be a good benefit for Bitcoin and us. We will see a lot of volume and people will start coming into Bitcoin as for sure the adaption and news and topics will start as ETF is a huge thing in the market right now.

[bittraffic]

Every country is going to have to offer their people a Bitcoin spot ETF in the future. Not doing so would be hurting themselves financially and their future prospects. Even though Vanguard claims they never will, I’m sure they too will not be able to resist the fees and cries of their customers to bring a Bitcoin spot ETF product to market.

Agreed, however, the question I am presenting is whether the only modest take up of the futures ETF in America and in Hong Kong could be taken as a precedent for the spot ETF's performance. I reckon if thr answer is yes or maybe then similar to @Tytanowy Janusz's speculation, the effect of the spot ETFs on bitcoin might be overhyped.

It's overhyped because people already have it in mind that institutions are not getting in without regulation such as the ETF approval. Thus once they get in, BTC price will skyrocket while BTC on exchanges are getting low for people are also withdrawing their coins. But we have seen the price action when iBTC was listed on dtcc even when it's uncertain yet.

I think BTC will be just like gold and the difference is that because it's digital it's easy to buy and easy to sell.

[bbc.reporter]

@bittraffic. The argument is it is overhyped because the pump has occured before there was an approval and this might be something similar to a sell the news occurrence if it is approved.

However, agreed. Bitcoin will skyrocket later after approval when ETF issuers begin twapping hehehe.

Also, it appears Ethereum might also get a spot ETF.



BlackRock, one of the world’s biggest asset managers, officially filed its Spot Ethereum ETF with Nasdaq today. The company’s plan was revealed in a filing by the U.S. exchange where BlackRock will seek to list the product.

Source https://watcher.guru/news/blackrock-officially-files-spot-ethereum-etf-application

[Poker Player]

@bittraffic. The argument is it is overhyped because the pump has occured before there was an approval and this might be something similar to a sell the news occurrence if it is approved.

However, agreed. Bitcoin will skyrocket later after approval when ETF issuers begin twapping hehehe.

Yes, I believe that will be the case. One thing will be when it is effectively confirmed that the first spot ETF is approved in the USA, which is the one that will influence the market the most, which I think is priced in and that can provoke as you say premeditated sales to fleece retail investors who buy with the news instead of selling.

There are many spot etfs in many countries already this is nothing new. I think somewhere in Europe there was a bitcoin etf from maybe 5 years back.
...

In many countries? How many and what are these countries? I am quite certain that there are not many countries offering spot ETFs for bitcoin or other cryptocoins. Also, if it is a spot ETF in a developing country with a small market, we can also be quite certain that it will not have effect on the whole market.

There are currently 20 active spot bitcoin ETFs worldwide, with a combined $4.16 billion in total assets. The largest spot bitcoin ETFs are Canada's Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) with $819.11 million in total assets and Germany's ETC Group Physical Bitcoin with $802.52 million in total assets. 

Source: Canadian ETFs lead global spot bitcoin funds with $4.16 billion in assets

[yhiaali3]

The only positive thing I see here is the Bitcoin futures ETFs moving to Hong Kong instead of the US, at least we get rid of SEC control.

However, despite this, I do not see that Bitcoin futures ETFs will have a significant impact on the market, given that this impact has already occurred, and I do not expect to see more than that. There is a great exaggeration in optimism, and what I see is that there will be a slight rise as a result of the good news.

The “real effect” occurs when large amounts of Bitcoin are purchased resulting in increased demand, which will not happen here.

[Lucius]

~snip~
However, there is something mentioned in the article that implies that spot ETFs might not be as bullish as we might expect. It is mentioned that the take up on futures ETF in Hong Kong has only been modest. I assume the take up on futures ETF in America has also only been modest? Can the data on bitcoin futures ETF be used as a precedent on how strong or weak spot ETFs might be?

It doesn't make much sense to compare futures and spot ETFs when it comes to Bitcoin, because they are completely different trading methods that naturally have a different impact on the BTC price. It's no secret that futures BTC ETFs have not caused too much excitement on the market, not only because of the way of trading, but also, as far as I know, because of the costs that clients pay for such a way of trading.

It is true that spot BTC ETFs in various countries are not very successful, so it is logical to ask whether one such in the US can be an exception? I personally think it can, because other countries do not have such giants as BlackRock, Fidelity or Grayscale, and here we are talking about more than $15 trillion under management, noting that there are at least a dozen smaller companies that are interested in the same thing.

HK may be an interesting story, but everything that happens there is several magnitudes smaller than in the US. However, I must admit that they have a good environment at their ATMs - for those who need professional help, of course

[TheUltraElite]

The more ETFs that get approved, the better for long term buyers.

After the JPEX scandal it seems getting the ETF in is the better of the evils and an attempt to show that they are supporting crypto but not allowing the shady activity to continue. A lot of ground work is required to get the buyers and the staff familiarized with these things and I guess adoption will not be a problem, there will already be bitcoin users in HK. Their interest in ETF over actual Bitcoins might vary.
Whats up with the image of models in a HK bitcoin ATM? I prefer it being empty when I enter, no prying eyes please.

[Texac]

The only positive thing I see here is the Bitcoin futures ETFs moving to Hong Kong instead of the US, at least we get rid of SEC control.

However, despite this, I do not see that Bitcoin futures ETFs will have a significant impact on the market, given that this impact has already occurred, and I do not expect to see more than that. There is a great exaggeration in optimism, and what I see is that there will be a slight rise as a result of the good news.

The “real effect” occurs when large amounts of Bitcoin are purchased resulting in increased demand, which will not happen here.

As adaseb said, there are already some spot ETFs in many countries and were approved many years ago but most are small markets so they go unnoticed.  meanwhile, the US financial market is the market that accounts for the majority of trading volume worldwide, so there will be a huge difference between SEC ETFs and ETFs of other countries.  while the future is unpredictable, but I think that once the SEC approves ETFs, we could see a bull market without the catalyst of the halving.

[el kaka22]

We keep talking about USA and the potential to have an ETF there, mainly the blackrock one because they do have trillions at their disposal so having ETF by them would mean a lot of money going into bitcoin (possibly).

However, we should definitely see these nations to have potential too, Hong Kong making any ETF accepted means that they are going to be one step ahead, and if there is anything USA hates more than a nation with oil that is not attacked by them, then that is not being the first at something, that's an important thing and would make USA to be a lot faster and should be noted down. I think it is going to be an important deal for all of us, and they will certainly make it quicker if they accept, if they see this.

[Lucius]

~snip~
However, we should definitely see these nations to have potential too, Hong Kong making any ETF accepted means that they are going to be one step ahead, and if there is anything USA hates more than a nation with oil that is not attacked by them, then that is not being the first at something, that's an important thing and would make USA to be a lot faster and should be noted down. I think it is going to be an important deal for all of us, and they will certainly make it quicker if they accept, if they see this.

HK is only one city and officially that area has a name "Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China", and I don't see why a spot BTC ETF in that city would upset someone in the US, especially if there are already about twenty spot BTC ETFs around the world (see @Poker Player post), and one of the biggest is in Canada.

No matter how you look at it, the US is definitely not even close to being the first in this, but that does not mean that maybe they did not make the right moves when they decided to wait and draw some conclusions from the experiences of other countries. If such an ETF is finally approved in the next few months (or maybe even days), it could very easily result in the accumulation of much larger funds than all other similar ETFs around the world have.

[STT]

Seems ironic to talk about Hong Kong when its been taken over by China who had previously banned Bitcoin.  To look towards this now with some optimism is quite comedy.  China didnt keep its promises and agreements over Hong Kong remaining separate with independence in jurisdiction from their communist regime, unfortunate as this promotes decay in HK as the finance asset and trading hub it had become.   It was worth leaving alone just for that revenue benefit but communism couldn't suffer the comparison and HK was assimilated.  I got little faith in action occurring in Hong Kong now for the long term.

[electronicash]

Seems ironic to talk about Hong Kong when its been taken over by China who had previously banned Bitcoin.  To look towards this now with some optimism is quite comedy.  China didnt keep its promises and agreements over Hong Kong remaining separate with independence in jurisdiction from their communist regime, unfortunate as this promotes decay in HK as the finance asset and trading hub it had become.   It was worth leaving alone just for that revenue benefit but communism couldn't suffer the comparison and HK was assimilated.  I got little faith in action occurring in Hong Kong now for the long term.

China is seeing the US about to approve ETF, so they are also establishing their own. the two superpowers are competing in different areas. but regardless of communism, HK is still going to be the business hub in Asia. people are free in that region from the mainland, but Hong Kong is no different from any other state or country the businesses are still controlled by the government through the laws.

either US SEC or Hong Kong, investors will anticipate the price to shoot to the moon when ETF is approved. it's just a matter of when it will be because they seem to be making us all wait til the hype is gone and we lost patience.