Bitcoin and it's 4 Year-Cycle

[legendbtc]

BTC and It's Cycles

I just wanted to share this as many people here do not believe in the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle.

Are there really people who don't believe in the four year cycle?? lol. Cuz like, that's the most obvious thing that everyone knows about.

I understand that people brand new to Bitcoin may not know about it, and there'll always be some people who just like to be contrarian and act like everyone is wrong and the four year cycles are actually part of some longer different cycle but that's silly. I would hope that like 99% of people who actually pay attention to Bitcoin and aren't complete newcomers understand the four year market cycle, otherwise they are gonna be much worse off in getting good deals in this space.

Perhaps there could still be non bitcoiners questioning the 4 year cycle. But for those who have seen it, at least in my case, I have witnessed it already, it's like a clockwork. Block halving -> next couple of months the price goes up -> bull run in the next 2 years - > new ATH.

We won't mention the newbies and we can't blame them as they haven't gone through any bull cycles before. But for the rest of us, I don't think they don't believe in the 4-year cycle but they are presenting a scenario that maybe history will not repeat itself and this is entirely possible. What we can do is hope that history will repeat itself, we have no solid evidence that history will repeat itself.

Anytime someone asks me about buying Bitcoin the very first thing I tell them is about the four year cycle, cuz if you don't even know about that you don't have a clue what you're doing. That's THE single most important thing to know about the bitcoin market.

I think that's the most important thing, if I'm not mistaken, I have spoke to someone way before the pandemic and the halving. I still remember it was 2019, and he was asking me all about Bitcoin. And I say to him that he should just continue to buy and don't sell for small profits. But as things turn out, there is the pandemic, lost touch of him because of the lockdown as he did go back to his province. But the last thing I heard about him is that he is doing good because he just hold on his Bitcoin and wait till the halving in 2020.

The 4-year cycle is something we need to mention when giving bitcoin investment advice to someone, but let's not focus too much on that because what if there is no bull season after the halving?

[1715043218]

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[michellee]

Anytime someone asks me about buying Bitcoin the very first thing I tell them is about the four year cycle, cuz if you don't even know about that you don't have a clue what you're doing. That's THE single most important thing to know about the bitcoin market.

I think that's the most important thing, if I'm not mistaken, I have spoke to someone way before the pandemic and the halving. I still remember it was 2019, and he was asking me all about Bitcoin. And I say to him that he should just continue to buy and don't sell for small profits. But as things turn out, there is the pandemic, lost touch of him because of the lockdown as he did go back to his province. But the last thing I heard about him is that he is doing good because he just hold on his Bitcoin and wait till the halving in 2020.

And it looks like he benefited from the rise in Bitcoin prices after 2020. We still hope to witness a high rise after this four-year cycle. Moreover, next year, there will be a halving moment and that could be an impetus for prices to increase again.

And if that high increase will occur in 2025, that's okay because we can still buy Bitcoin and store it. And for now, we can accumulate more Bitcoins before the price really increases and reaches its final ATH. That would be a high price to buy Bitcoin. And if there are still people trying to accumulate Bitcoin at that price, that's okay because they definitely have considerations.

This four-year cycle can be a sign for us to know when the Bitcoin price is expected to increase. Although it cannot be a definite sign, at least we can hope to see Bitcoin prices increase again. And at that moment, we can sell the Bitcoin that we have collected at the new ATH.

[348Judah]

Good to know of this 4-year cycle which can confirm of how history's going to be repeating itself. However, aside from the halving happening in April 2024 we are also expecting of another new thing to come to the market which is the approval of ETF and this factor might slightly alter the cycle maybe that can shorten the new ATH. Anyway, the big lesson here is for anyone interested with Bitcoin to increase what they are holding as avalanche of blessings can be coming to those with diamond hands.

The market circle is one of the reasons why we choose a specific target on when the market pumps or dumps for the investors to know when to enter the market base on its seasonal period otherwise known as circle, this is also part of what constitute the even of Halving after which the market rises base on the release of new coins mined and influx changes in demand and supply causing the market to be highly volatile, i don't think the ETF approval could go to this extent in taking the market on a bullrun as expected with halving event, though it may cause a pump in price but not on a long run or as expected with bullrun.

[arabspaceship123]

That's the scene ppl don't understand the dangers of. It doesn't take a long time for dreams to slip in to nightmares. There isn't a thing called guaranteed profit because of halving because it's based on how long you're going to hold on to with patience. If halving gave ATH in the past it doesn't mean history's going to repeat.

Not only do people seem optimistic, but I also get the feeling people are becoming more subjective than optimistic. Everyone is thinking about a dreamlike scenario where the past will repeat everything exactly and will make us rich easily. Everyone was caught off guard and no one seemed to think about the bad situation that could happen.

For me, when it comes to money and profits, it's a game and the game is never easy. Therefore, it is necessary to have backup plans for bad situations that occur, do not be too subjective because the future is unpredictable.

[Solokan]

The graph you display is very good, and by displaying the graph we can see the history of BTC which is very good, and always creates new ATH but there is always a phase of price decline before creating a new ATH. but of course we won't know what will happen 2025, whether BTC will create a new ath or not, because as we know the world of crypto is always full of drama and in this case of course only time will provide the answer. but technical analysis is of course very good and of course always plays an important role in the world of crypto and always has the potential to create fundamentals.

This 4 year cycle is of course always eagerly awaited and is always a sign for us to know when the price of BTC will be expected to rise.
But I think BTC in 2025 has the potential to rise high because it's time for bull run after the halving in 2024.

[taufik123]

That's the scene ppl don't understand the dangers of. It doesn't take a long time for dreams to slip in to nightmares. There isn't a thing called guaranteed profit because of halving because it's based on how long you're going to hold on to with patience. If halving gave ATH in the past it doesn't mean history's going to repeat.

Only those who do not understand how the crypto market works expect a guarantee that the Halving to happen.
Investors who have been in the crypto market for a long time know how cycles work.
Each cycle will be different but the signs will probably be the same.

Although Halving made new history with ATH in the past, it is not a guarantee that Halving will deliver the same cycle.
It may take longer or faster to reach ATH.

There are all sorts of factors that can affect the upcoming ATH cycle.
Past history may play a role, but it does not necessarily mean that the cycle will be the same.
There will be differences, of course.
Seeing how regulations, economic conditions, market sentiment, and other factors are enough to make the cycle change.

[Out of mind]

It is true that the value of Bitcoin halves every four years and the price increases during that time. We have seen how the Bitcoin chart has grown since the past and how Bitcoin has come up to date according to its halving is really interesting.

As we have seen in past charts, Bitcoin had its first halving in 2012, the very next year in 2013 when the Bitcoin market peaked in ATH.
Then the bear market began in 2016 when Bitcoin halved for the second time, and the bull market began the following year in 2017 when ATH peaked.
A bull market followed by a bear market followed by a third halving in 2020, followed by Bitcoin's all-time high in 2021 and a bull market that saw the highest ATH.
According to the past, the predictions we have seen now are Bitcoin halving in 2024 and a Bitcoin bull market in 2025.  And we are looking forward to that. We believe that the future will happen in the Bitcoin market as it has in the past, so we believe that Bitcoin will be the highest ATH in 2025.

[arabspaceship123]

I don't want new bitcoin investors to fall for the FOMO. If they're accepting halving won't guarantee profits they'll invest carefully or else they'll be vulnerable if they sell at low prices. I don't know why ppl can't see FOMO's being presented to them by other investors who'd like to see bitcoin price rise so they're able to dump first.

Although Halving made new history with ATH in the past, it is not a guarantee that Halving will deliver the same cycle.
It may take longer or faster to reach ATH.

There are all sorts of factors that can affect the upcoming ATH cycle.
Past history may play a role, but it does not necessarily mean that the cycle will be the same.
There will be differences, of course.
Seeing how regulations, economic conditions, market sentiment, and other factors are enough to make the cycle change.

[taufik123]

I don't want new bitcoin investors to fall for the FOMO. If they're accepting halving won't guarantee profits they'll invest carefully or else they'll be vulnerable if they sell at low prices. I don't know why ppl can't see FOMO's being presented to them by other investors who'd like to see bitcoin price rise so they're able to dump first.

Seeing how FOMO has always happened in the past, it has become a part of the crypto market and those who enter at FOMO prices never learn how the right time to start entering and selling.

When prices tend to be cheap they are reluctant to even enter for fear that the price will continue to fall, but when it goes higher they will buy it.
Actually, this happens because of the influence of unstable psychology, not knowing whether they entered at the best price or at a price that is too high.

Those who still survive from the last ATH purchase, of course they still hope that Bitcoin will be able to reach the new ATH.
But most of them have sold their holdings at a lower price.

[danadc]

I could not establish the bitcoin cycle, because it is something unpredictable, the volatility is what makes the asset different and differentiates it from all the markets that have stocks, and I don't know but 2021 was when bitcoin had that great price of almost 70 thousand USD, and that makes it the year 2026 when the price will rise again? based on what? Here I have told you that there are many patterns in trading, and they can be what makes the difference but I don't think that is the case, I think that Bitcoin goes up or down because investors know when they should not make it go up, because In a pandemic or in wars it will not rise, it will rise in the best time that is for the investors, and they push it to a much higher level.

[Texac]

I could not establish the bitcoin cycle, because it is something unpredictable, the volatility is what makes the asset different and differentiates it from all the markets that have stocks, and I don't know but 2021 was when bitcoin had that great price of almost 70 thousand USD, and that makes it the year 2026 when the price will rise again? based on what? Here I have told you that there are many patterns in trading, and they can be what makes the difference but I don't think that is the case, I think that Bitcoin goes up or down because investors know when they should not make it go up, because In a pandemic or in wars it will not rise, it will rise in the best time that is for the investors, and they push it to a much higher level.

No one can confirm or have the crystal ball to tell you that for sure.  but if you look back at bitcoin's growth history, you will see that the cycle the OP is talking about has repeated 3 times.  so, there is nothing wrong with people continuing to believe and expect history to repeat itself again. 

Sometimes things are very simple but many people deliberately make things complicated.  they give thousands of reasons and scenarios for their thoughts while it is very possible that everything will not change and history will repeat itself. 

[so98nn]

I am not technical analysis expert but what happened to the Bitcoin price of 55-60k USD ? Why I am not able to see it in the chart if we had touch down to that price range couple of years back. The graph should have been little curvy like going up for bit and then again falling back sharply to the 25k price range. I am totally confused about the cycles given in that chart.

Or, is it just formal prediction that was plotted earlier and we are just discussing about it. Because even if I Check the “All time graph” of Bitcoin then it looks like what I imagined whole typing the post.

Just have a look at this:




I am just trying to understand whether there is another way to look at the graph here?

[arabspaceship123]

That's the way cryptocurrency trading works for most ppl they try to buy cheap & sell high that's the aim to make profit. FOMO doesn't help investors. Investors will always buy bitcoin when the price's cheap but ppl who've missed out in low prices take a leap of faith because of FOMO but are left with losses.

When prices tend to be cheap they are reluctant to even enter for fear that the price will continue to fall, but when it goes higher they will buy it.
Actually, this happens because of the influence of unstable psychology, not knowing whether they entered at the best price or at a price that is too high.

[MinoRaiola]

Looking at this chart, it is +500 days after the halving and I havent seen it from that perspective. So the whole year 2024 would not be an extreme run, that would be strange but okay. There could be Bitcoin ETF's coming in 2024 and then it should go up. The year 2020 and Corona can be seen in the chart, if that hadnt been, the price maybe been higher than the last ATH. Ok, all speculation, but still interesting.

[BitDane]

I could not establish the bitcoin cycle, because it is something unpredictable, the volatility is what makes the asset different and differentiates it from all the markets that have stocks, and I don't know but 2021 was when bitcoin had that great price of almost 70 thousand USD, and that makes it the year 2026 when the price will rise again? based on what? Here I have told you that there are many patterns in trading, and they can be what makes the difference but I don't think that is the case, I think that Bitcoin goes up or down because investors know when they should not make it go up, because In a pandemic or in wars it will not rise, it will rise in the best time that is for the investors, and they push it to a much higher level.

I think we need to look at the history of Bitcoin price.  From there we can mark the ATH before the bear enters the market.  We  can see from the history that there is 4 year apart from each cycle before the previous ATH is surpassed thus, the name Bitcoin 4-year cycle is created.

This cycles as stated in the earlier reply is highly influenced by the Bitcoin halving. Regardless of the news that happens each year , the Bitcoin having is major catalyst before the Bitcoin market starts to rally to record another ATH.  We had not experienced news that break an all time high in a span of time after the new ATH is recorded and before the halving event happen, it has been always after the halving event that makes the Bitcoin price to reach a new height.

I don't know but 2021 was when bitcoin had that great price of almost 70 thousand USD, and that makes it the year 2026 when the price will rise again? based on what?

It is always observed that bull market starts within a few months before or after the Bitcoin halving event, the price will possibly starts to rise again in the last quarter of 2023 or 1st quarter of the year 2024 and will record a new ATH a year after the halving, possibly in 2025.  That is based on the 4 year cycle that is discussed in this thread.

[JoyMarsha]

I can't advise ppl to take bitcoin price projections seriously because we don't know the future. We can't be sure about what's going to happen to bitcoin's price months after halving. Charts give false hope to investors when they're convinced to buy Bitcoin but they aren't prepared for what's going to happen if it loses value.

What would make bitcoin lose value? Even if the price is reduced than expected, as long as you continue to hodl it without selling, you will surely end up being at a profit someday. That's what people don't tend to know about the uniqueness of hodling bitcoin for long-term purposes. They thought that when the price reduces drastically, like those who bought Bitcoin during its ATH in 2021, it won't skyrocket back in price which puts them at a loss with today's price of $35k.

Forget the fact that bitcoin won't repeat its 4 years circle of price increase because for sure it will. It has done that in the three-halving, and hopefully, it will do that next year halving by increasing the price of Bitcoin months later.

These are my beliefs for bitcoin to do well in price, as I look forward to it in 2024 and 2025

[arabspaceship123]

I don't know what's going to make bitcoin lose value except dumping by whales or FUD. If one group's going to dump their bitcoins it's setting a pattern for other ppl to sell so it's going make bitcoin lose value. Some investors who can't hodl they're trying to make profts by short sales. Halving doesn't guarantee ATH price so what's the option for investors who don't want to hodl but see bitcoin lose value.

Every investment's a risk that's what ppl have to remember before they buy because of FOMO.

What would make bitcoin lose value? Even if the price is reduced than expected, as long as you continue to hodl it without selling, you will surely end up being at a profit someday. That's what people don't tend to know about the uniqueness of hodling bitcoin for long-term purposes. They thought that when the price reduces drastically, like those who bought Bitcoin during its ATH in 2021, it won't skyrocket back in price which puts them at a loss with today's price of $35k.

Forget the fact that bitcoin won't repeat its 4 years circle of price increase because for sure it will. It has done that in the three-halving, and hopefully, it will do that next year halving by increasing the price of Bitcoin months later.

[willi9974]

very nice and informative picture from you. I hope it happens exactly like this, or even a few days earlier. my estimate for the ATH is more likely the end of 2024, but we'll see.

I will keep an eye on this post. Fingers crosses !!!

Best regards
Willi

[OcTradism]

Every investment's a risk that's what ppl have to remember before they buy because of FOMO.

They must be in the market a long time to understand its mechanism, cycles and it will be their own experience that is different than what they can learn from textbook or psychological chart of market cycles.

The psychology of market cycles is most important and it is true not only in cryptocurrency market but for all market types. Because basically people don't change themselves and human instinct is generally the same if you count how the majority of market participants behave in one market.

Market makers therefore, take advantage of it to manipulate the crowd with their fake technical indicator movements and direct market to a direction they want. When a market participant understands psychological cycle, it's better to have good control against FOMO and panic, then more easily gain success in either investment or trading. Trading is more risky than investment and it's harder to gain profit in a long run as well.

[philipma1957]

BTC and It's Cycles

This is an amazing chart I have saved for more than a year now, it predicted the 2022 Cycle Low correctly. It's made by someone else, I do not remember the user however I have it saved.
I just wanted to share this as many people here do not believe in the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle. Here's a live proof of that being executed every cycle.

The next possible Cycle High is in August, 2025-November, 2025.

I think that the four year cycle effect will be ending ,but that it did and still does exist.

The rewards half every four years. Thus the so called four year cycle.

But the % of fees increase every four years and this is not looked at as much as we should.

what were average fees per block when rewards were 50 coins. well under 1 coin per a btc
what were average fees per block when rewards were 25 coins. some what under a btc
what were average fees per block when rewards were 12.5 coins some times over a btc
what were average fees per block when rewards are 6.25 coins some times  over 3 btc

what will average fees per block be when rewards are 3.125 coins if it is sometime over three we are 1-1

or 50-50 percent

and we were 2-1 or 66.6-33.3 percent

and back in the day we were once 50-1 or 98-2 percent

so the cycle from 2024-2028 may be the last of the four year cycles.

in which actual reward- fees is 50-50

I am thinking in 2028-2032 it will be 1.5625 reward and some times 3 or 4 coins fees.