Crypto market will top when we see ‘how do I mine BTC on my laptop’ posts here

[adaseb]

Seems a bull market is brewing.

One thing I noticed was that whenever we were in a bull market and near the top of the cycle, we would get many posts in this mining forum about “mining bitcoins on my laptop” and such.

So far I looked and no such posts. However when they start to pop up, means we are nearing the top.

This indicator seemed to have worked for every one of the past crypto cycles. Crypto becomes so popular that people hear about bitcoin mining and start to get curious and make threads here. Usually when this happens means retail adoption is high and hence why the cycle top risk.

[JayDDee]

The rush of new miners looking to GRQ is more of a trailing indicator, as you point out it indicates nearing the top.
There's the old saying about the stock market, when it hits the front page news it's time for the smart money to get out.

[FP91G]

On the contrary, I see a big decrease in activity in mining communities, because video cards are not profitable, and ASIC mining is not suitable for all home miners.
And now there is already a lot of information that Bitcoin mining is simply unprofitable on any equipment except modern ASICs.
Stupid questions will arise when Bitcoin approaches the price of 60,000 dollars.

[philipma1957]

On the contrary, I see a big decrease in activity in mining communities, because video cards are not profitable, and ASIC mining is not suitable for all home miners.
And now there is already a lot of information that Bitcoin mining is simply unprofitable on any equipment except modern ASICs.
Stupid questions will arise when Bitcoin approaches the price of 60,000 dollars.

which will not be an ending indicator as 60k is too low for asics once the ½ ing comes.

the best btc miner is the s21 it will need 85 kwatts a day.

it is earning 16 a day today
and if the ½ ing  happens today it earns 8 a day.

so at 10 cent power todays price is okay and at the ½ not okay.

so we need to be at 74k for a ten cent power price to make money.

I start to see a lot of questions when 20 cent power works. we are no where near that.

[Metroid]

I believe this is a pre bull market, bull market only in 2025 but they could just do what they did in 2018, pump a lot by years end and then crash to hehell. I don't see a bull market now, this is likely a big trap but even if is a big trap and people fall into it then they will just have to wait at least until 2025 to get back their money with interest. Anyway, everything is against a bull market now, reason I said this is a pre bull market. Interest rate in the US is very high at moment, 5.25%. For the bull market to work well, need the interest rate to be less than 2%, 1% is preferred, so people can get loans and use to buy crypto. That blackrock BTC ETH ETF is another huge red flag and trolls want to make people to believe is a good thing, be extremely careful.

Also creators of stable usd crypto, example, usdc, usdt and many others ones are part of the mafia and they will mint those tokens to pump btc, they created a perfect ponzi scheme that dont even need real usd from people anymore, like they needed in 2013 bull market. Exchanges will just follow the mafia because exchanges need those fake pumps in order to make people to buy and sell. Remember that crypto market is not regulated so they can pump and dump and create artificial stories in order to manipulate people at their hearts content to do what they want people to do.

[adaseb]

Yes mining now is not profitable but it won’t matter. Whenever we had a strong bull market, I would come to the alt coin mining discussion and see some post about someone hearing about bitcoin and they want to mine it with their MacBook pretty much. Almost every cycle near the top this phenomenon occurs.

This is similar to how my close friends and family ask about bitcoin, it always near a market top. It could be a coincidence but it’s just something I observed from being in crypto for almost a decade.

[Metroid]

Yes mining now is not profitable but it won’t matter. Whenever we had a strong bull market, I would come to the alt coin mining discussion and see some post about someone hearing about bitcoin and they want to mine it with their MacBook pretty much. Almost every cycle near the top this phenomenon occurs.

This is similar to how my close friends and family ask about bitcoin, it always near a market top. It could be a coincidence but it’s just something I observed from being in crypto for almost a decade.

The issue about mining right now in the crypto market in this case pre bull market is that thieves will only hype tokens they control and billions can be created in seconds then distribute to many other thieves in order to hype them and then cashout, I will never invest in coins that are not pow or recently put in the market as pow, be extremely careful with that, remember in 2013 and 2018, many coins that thieves pumped and hyped were pow, in 2021 a fraction only and the next bull market will be even less, meaning mining is dying, period. People dont know how to differentiate normal tokens from mineable tokens. So they will buy anything that thieves will tell them to, marketing.

Also, the story about FTX, luna, terra and other scams are still very fresh, many commoners are still afraid of that, something needs to happen for them to invest in crypto, in 2021 we had the covid money from the government, reason the inflation is still high to this day. Many people did not work, only consumed but like I said before thieves can do anything they want right now, if they decided to pump bitcoin to 100k they will do, they have the means with fake USD, the reason thieves are afraid of doing that is because that could be the end of the crypto market, easy money, thieves need a reason why a pump happens, reason they create many manipulative stories, example, blackrock btc etf, they need to show to idiots that the pump is not with fake USD.

[Bitcoin_Arena]

On the contrary, I see a big decrease in activity in mining communities, because video cards are not profitable, and ASIC mining is not suitable for all home miners.
And now there is already a lot of information that Bitcoin mining is simply unprofitable on any equipment except modern ASICs.
Stupid questions will arise when Bitcoin approaches the price of 60,000 dollars.

I don't mine Bitcoin, but I thought with the recent spike in transaction fees due to the ordinals craze miners would be smiling their way to their wallet addresses due to those significant transaction fees.

[JayDDee]

On the contrary, I see a big decrease in activity in mining communities, because video cards are not profitable, and ASIC mining is not suitable for all home miners.
And now there is already a lot of information that Bitcoin mining is simply unprofitable on any equipment except modern ASICs.
Stupid questions will arise when Bitcoin approaches the price of 60,000 dollars.

I don't mine Bitcoin, but I thought with the recent spike in transaction fees due to the ordinals craze miners would be smiling their way to their wallet addresses due to those significant transaction fees.

Some people still conflate the exchange market with the mining market. Tx increase will cause an increased interest in mining, but the cause of
the incresase in transactions is the real news. It could be due to the recent availability of BTC mutual funds in the US. These funds are mandated
to buy BTC just like stock market index funds. When a new stock is added to a stock market index all the index funds must buy that stock causing the
price to rise. This is usually temporary, once the index funds are rebalanced the price settles. The same thing could be hapening to BTC.

BTC is different because of mining. Mininig benefits from the increase in block reward from tx fees as well as price appreciation on the exchange market.
Only time will tell if this is the start of a bull market or if it will sputter out. Geopolotical events could also have an impact.

[FP91G]

On the contrary, I see a big decrease in activity in mining communities, because video cards are not profitable, and ASIC mining is not suitable for all home miners.
And now there is already a lot of information that Bitcoin mining is simply unprofitable on any equipment except modern ASICs.
Stupid questions will arise when Bitcoin approaches the price of 60,000 dollars.

which will not be an ending indicator as 60k is too low for asics once the ½ ing comes.

the best btc miner is the s21 it will need 85 kwatts a day.

it is earning 16 a day today
and if the ½ ing  happens today it earns 8 a day.

so at 10 cent power todays price is okay and at the ½ not okay.

so we need to be at 74k for a ten cent power price to make money.

I start to see a lot of questions when 20 cent power works. we are no where near that.

I like real reports from mining companies. Even if they work 3 months a year in Texas, their profits are very different from standard calculations.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5473513.msg63130657#msg63130657
I remember that you said that your rental agreement for premises is limited in time. How will this affect your mining?

[Metroid]

Seems a bull market is brewing.

One thing I noticed was that whenever we were in a bull market and near the top of the cycle, we would get many posts in this mining forum about “mining bitcoins on my laptop” and such.

So far I looked and no such posts. However when they start to pop up, means we are nearing the top.

This indicator seemed to have worked for every one of the past crypto cycles. Crypto becomes so popular that people hear about bitcoin mining and start to get curious and make threads here. Usually when this happens means retail adoption is high and hence why the cycle top risk.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475235.0

[Mate2237]

Well this is the time I am coming bro this section if the forum. It is this campaign that I am is making me to come here so I have not experienced such cycle or discussions before but from what I discovered what you are saying is not far from the truth because I just made a comment on a thread that is asking to use laptop to use for mining because the ASIC machine is too expenses and he doesn't want to use an old ASIC machine because he is afraid if it will be an old one.

If it worked before then it will still work again because as they are creating those threads Bitcoin is also on the bull run.

[JayDDee]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475235.0

I give this one a pass because the question was framed as learning, not simply getting rich by mining BTC with a laptop.
In fact the user was asking what I usually recommend, try mining with what you have to get a feel for it before spending
any money on mining equipment. The experience will better inform any decision to invest.

[fahdbhatti]

I totally agree, when the top is near all the newbies come to ask similar questions.

[adaseb]

Yeah I saw that title and I assumed it was  one of you trying to be funny. But after reading the thread it seems it’s legit.

Another one or two of these posts and I say we are near the peak. Already almost every post on /wallstreetbets is about bitcoin. Almost every financial tv program is talking about bitcoin. People are calling for new ATH already. We got $2000 daily moves in price. Seems toppy.