Estimate halving time with block time and a calculator

[Catenaccio]

There are many websites that give estimated dates for a 2024 Bitcoin halving but they usually give an estimated date and time.

I just knew about a website that can give us a calculator and we can enter a block time to calculate/ estimate the next halving date.

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/#calculator

With block time parameter for estimated halving date, 11 minutes, 10 minutes and 9 minutes, it will give us three dates like
Thursday - May, 9, 2024 at 18:58 UTC (11 minutes for next block time)
Wednesday - April, 24, 2024 at 0:38 UTC (10 minutes for next block time)
Monday - April, 8, 2024 at 6:18 UTC (9 minutes for next block time)

The website has estimated halving dates till 2060.

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[Zaguru12]

One thing still remains which is we will only get an estimated time using all this calculators and they will differ with one another base on block time. Also the difficulty target plays a huge role in the block time and since it changes every 2016 block it will affect the estimate time. The average time might be 10 minutes or the estimated base on the two timers you use but it Could be way lower and higher than that. We have seen blocks getting confirmed in less than a minute which will affect the time significantly

[Catenaccio]

One thing still remains which is we will only get an estimated time using all this calculators and they will differ with one another base on block time. Also the difficulty target plays a huge role in the block time and since it changes every 2016 block it will affect the estimate time. The average time might be 10 minutes or the estimated base on the two timers you use but it Could be way lower and higher than that. We have seen blocks getting confirmed in less than a minute which will affect the time significantly

If you understand difficulty retarget, you will not say this.

Difficulty retarget helps to adjust difficulty to fit it with network hash rate that is computational power of the Bitcoin network to mine new blocks. Block time within 2016 blocks can be longer or shorter than 10 minutes * 2016 blocks because the average block time within 2016 blocks can be lower or higher than 10 minutes.

In this context, it is for a long interval from now till a halving block and average block time for a long interval will still be around 10 minutes. I used 9 minutes and 11 minutes because of this reason.

Like you can not say one block can be found a few second after a previous block, it is true but it does not affect estimated time for a next halving too much. Because in average, block time is about 10 minutes.

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin
24h statistics:
Avg. time between blocks: 9 minutes 13 seconds

A chart for Average time between Bitcoin blocks (in seconds) https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/charts/average-block-interval
You can see it in 1M, 6M, 1Y, average block time is fluctuating around 600 to less than 700 seconds.


Last 3 years
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-confirmationtime.html#3y

[hugeblack]

Suppose that the time has been calculated accurately, what will we benefit from? The difference is a month in the worst case, and I do not think that the price will change significantly during this month. Also, for miners, many things will not change within a month, as most of those who start a mining farm or individual mining put in the account a month or More than losses.

A halving time event is beneficial in the long run, and a difference of a month is not considered effective in the long run.

[btc78]

Suppose that the time has been calculated accurately, what will we benefit from? The difference is a month in the worst case, and I do not think that the price will change significantly during this month. Also, for miners, many things will not change within a month, as most of those who start a mining farm or individual mining put in the account a month or More than losses.

A halving time event is beneficial in the long run, and a difference of a month is not considered effective in the long run.

a lot of people are anticipating the halving event and for some they need the estimated date to know when to make the most profit i agree with you though after halving it’s gonna be followed by a rise in the market the most important thing to know is that halving is near and we should all acquire btc as soon as now

[DudeAtWork420]

Definitely the crypto and bitcoin community are eagerly waiting and anticipating the halving come next year 2023 with very high expectations in price hike which is always the outcome of the occurrence  but I would say that this estimate calculated by OP as shown on the website is based on assumption because there is every tendency that it is not 100% accurate.

[Zaguru12]

If you understand difficulty retarget, you will not say this.

Difficulty retarget helps to adjust difficulty to fit it with network hash rate that is computational power of the Bitcoin network to mine new blocks. Block time within 2016 blocks can be longer or shorter than 10 minutes * 2016 blocks because the average block time within 2016 blocks can be lower or higher than 10 minutes.

In this context, it is for a long interval from now till a halving block and average block time for a long interval will still be around 10 minutes. I used 9 minutes and 11 minutes because of this reason.

Like you can not say one block can be found a few second after a previous block, it is true but it does not affect estimated time for a next halving too much. Because in average, block time is about 10 minutes.

Alright thanks for the difficulty explanation.

I think you might be missing my point, the difficulty and the hash rate plays a role in the date and without having an exact figure for this two all dates will just be mere estimations because it will vary even if it is for at least two weeks. What I was saying is the best way to calculate the exact date for halving is by counting down the 210,000 blocks needed to be mined before it happens. If you look at other estimators by sites like Coincegko, Binance Academy, BitcoinBlockhalving, Coinmarketcap and others, you will see that they are constantly adjusting the date almost every 2 weeks based on average 2016 block time.

So I still stand that the 9, 10, 11 minutes timers you used won’t give us an accurate countdown so as any number used by all Those sites, the only accurate countdown is, it happens after 210, 000 blocks are mined.

[ZAINmalik75]

Definitely the crypto and bitcoin community are eagerly waiting and anticipating the halving come next year 2023 with very high expectations in price hike which is always the outcome of the occurrence  but I would say that this estimate calculated by OP as shown on the website is based on assumption because there is every tendency that it is not 100% accurate.

Op has already stated that the result is based on the blocks that will be mined in different minutes, for example, a minute to 11-minute timeframe, and he shared that the website will calculate accordingly, so how can you say this result is based on assumption? It is based on proper block data.

We are waiting for the halving eagerly because after the halving, a bull run will start, and we are going to make some money out of it. More money will be inflowing into BTC, and the overall market will pump. And the good thing is that if ETFs are approved, we can see the price will rise to a point we didn't even have predicted.
Most of the analyst predicted that BTC can reach 100,000 dollars but the funny thing is many people still waiting for the dip

[Hamza2424]

I did not think that a single minute up or down could make that much difference between the halving dates, but thanks for sharing this information it was refreshing. This information is more valuable for the miners who will be more affected by halving. We will also be affected due to the rise in fees but I think the increase in prices of fees comes early for us than the time we have anticipated.

I will keep an eye on this calculator and will try to make a good analysis out of it if there is any way to make one understand the nature of the fee but till then there are many blocks that goes without any transaction in them for example with zero transaction, what they have to do with having time or calculators like these. Check the block 817214.

[hosseinimr93]

I will keep an eye on this calculator and will try to make a good analysis out of it if there is any way to make one understand the nature of the fee but till then there are many blocks that goes without any transaction in them for example with zero transaction, what they have to do with having time or calculators like these. Check the block 817214.

The next halving will happen once the block number 840,000 is mined. This doesn't have anything to do with how many transactions are included in each block and how many blocks have been mined without containing any (non-coinbase) transactions.
Note that even if a block doesn't have any (non-coinbase) transaction, that's still a block.

[SamReomo]

Those calculators won't be able to tell us an exact date about Bitcoin's next halving but they will continue to give us estimated dates based on the calculations. I believe that next halving is going to occur during 2024 and if we see the yearly thing then there is no need to go with the exact date. By the way after halving it will still take Bitcoin sometime to go to it's ATH and that's why the halving is just an indicator for that upcoming ATH that we all want to see.

[boyptc]

It's all about the number of block for the halving and these are estimations that whoever made it have some basis which comes with calculator.

I agree with HB, knowing that we know when's the next halving, that doesn't change a thing because no matter what's the schedule of the halving, it will still come.

I guess the benefit of it are those that will like to sell first and buy again before the halving date. Other than that, I can't think of any other benefit that one can have from it.

[Catenaccio]

Alright thanks for the difficulty explanation.

I think you might be missing my point, the difficulty and the hash rate plays a role in the date and without having an exact figure for this two all dates will just be mere estimations because it will vary even if it is for at least two weeks. What I was saying is the best way to calculate the exact date for halving is by counting down the 210,000 blocks needed to be mined before it happens.

Counting down blocks till block 840,000 is not calculate halving date and time. A block for halving is set and we all know that. We only don't know when that block will be mined by Bitcoin miners. This post does not make any sense.

So I still stand that the 9, 10, 11 minutes timers you used won’t give us an accurate countdown so as any number used by all Those sites

Estimate to have estimated halving time does not to have accurate estimated halving time. Do you know what estimate means?

the only accurate countdown is, it happens after 210, 000 blocks are mined.

You are missing between block countdown and time countdown.

Even the site writes it

When is the 2024 Bitcoin Halving?

The 2024 halving will likely occur in April 2024. There is a small chance it will happen in either March or May. Our most updated estimate is displayed at the top of this page.

My thread writes that I shared it not because it gives accurate estimated halving time, but because it is the only site I know that you can enter a block time (average block time of rest blocks till the halving) for estimated halving time.

[DubemIfedigbo001]

Suppose that the time has been calculated accurately, what will we benefit from? The difference is a month in the worst case, and I do not think that the price will change significantly during this month. Also, for miners, many things will not change within a month, as most of those who start a mining farm or individual mining put in the account a month or More than losses.

A halving time event is beneficial in the long run, and a difference of a month is not considered effective in the long run.

The time can never be calculated correctly cos block confirmation time differs. Some blocks are confirmed at a longer time and some, a shorter time. These variations are not put into consideration when calculating the halving time. Even if all past parameters and block confirmation times were considered before putting up the calculators, its still a wild guess as new developments might  spark up in the near future and possibly alter the parameters of calculation, leading to a wrong prediction.
From my observation of the halving curves, there's little  or insignificant increase in prize of bitcoin one month after halving. The deal gets rolling properly like 6 months - 1 year after halving and investors tend to reap good profits at this time span. Hoping to get good profits at first month after halving is just like hoping to fully enjoy an occasion when you intend leaving just after the opening prayer.

[stadus]

How does this halving significantly affect the market? Even though I kept track of the halving date, I don't think it's necessary since, based on trends, the bull run usually happens after the halving. So, this halving schedule is just a reminder that we should gradually accumulate Bitcoin to ensure we don't miss out on the bull run.

I just look at this one from Binance

https://www.binance.com/en/events/bitcoin-halving

[pinggoki]

a lot of people are anticipating the halving event and for some they need the estimated date to know when to make the most profit i agree with you though after halving it’s gonna be followed by a rise in the market the most important thing to know is that halving is near and we should all acquire btc as soon as now

I hope that it does but what's in store for the future isn't for us to know and bitcoin has been consistent through the years on growth but the halving isn't the only factor through all these growth, last halving, it took bitcoin about a year after the halving before it reached an all-time high. I can agree with you though about having to accumulate as much bitcoin as possible as soon as possible, you will never know if this is the last time that bitcoin will touch this price for the better and you will end up with regret not having to buy at this price when bitcoin finally has $100k as a price floor.