JJG's Bitcoin Investment Ideas (Sustainable Withdrawal / Portfolio Maintenance)

[bitmover]

I am not sure if it might be helpful to better highlight which numbers are changeable and which numbers have formulas.

What about this?

All the cells that need to be edited are highlighted in Green. 
Every other format is directly computed from those green cells cells.
Settling a unique format for the cells to be edited can be a nice idea, even more if this is coherent across the various spreadsheets.

Yes.  That does look better in terms of highlighting that the green fields are the ones in which data would be entered, and then Viola!!!!! The spreadsheet will do the remainder of the calculations based on what is put into the green input fields.. although the labels are not input fields.. #justsaying..  hahahahaha

I just edited the labels as per your suggestion!
And
Voilà!!!!!
Now the spreadsheets updates automatically when you enter the numbers in the green cells.

I can’t wait to see the final website.
Even if I have a concern: if you want to play with those hypothesis, you might want to come back multiple times. Coming back multiple times call for some sort of registration: but is this privacy friendly?

Thanks for the spelling lesson.. yet I am not sure if i understand the reference for coming back multiple times and a potential triggering of registration?  Is that referring to the creation of a website, and attempts at monetization?  because there are a lot of bitcoin related sites that allow playing around and manipulating of data, but no need to register.  Or are you referring to google spreadsheets? 

Of course we likely realize that there is a kind of spirit of open-source in bitcoin, and sometimes even open-source could end up being monetized, even though at the same time, there can be areas of discontent because more sophisticated (or better marketers) could end up taking open-sourced ideas (and code) and then just creating their own version (and maybe close sourcing that), which may or may not end up being better than the original variation.

Personally,  I will try to avoid any registration  (unless we decide to monetize some functionalities.)

There are ways to save data locally in your browser, using localStorage
https://developer.mozilla.org/pt-BR/docs/Web/API/Window/localStorage

I use it another tools such as the balance Checker . You can make a search and you will see the addreses again when you return (saved locally in your computer)
https://bitcoindata.science/bitcoin-balance-check.html

[1714234047]

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[1714234047]

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[goldkingcoiner]

I really like the idea of sustainable withdrawals! Great job indeed, to JayJuanGee for the idea and Bitmover for the website!

Although I greatly appreciate JayJuanGee's love for details, I think that for the website, a simplified explanation or, better yet, an animated demonstration might benefit those who already struggle with the English language or with basic comprehension skills.

The deeper details can be added to a documentation page (or just keep it linked it to JJG's idea thread on Bitcointalk).

[fillippone]

Thanks for the spelling lesson.. yet I am not sure if i understand the reference for coming back multiple times and a potential triggering of registration?  Is that referring to the creation of a website, and attempts at monetization?  because there are a lot of bitcoin related sites that allow playing around and manipulating of data, but no need to register.  Or are you referring to google spreadsheets?  

I was referring to the fact that the user could have her inputs saved on the chart upon returning to the webpage. But @bitmover did a very good job storing the data in the browser cache, which is a great privacy-related feature.
So, no need to register.

[JayJuanGee]

I really like the idea of sustainable withdrawals! Great job indeed, to JayJuanGee for the idea and Bitmover for the website!

Although I greatly appreciate JayJuanGee's love for details, I think that for the website, a simplified explanation or, better yet, an animated demonstration might benefit those who already struggle with the English language or with basic comprehension skills.

The deeper details can be added to a documentation page (or just keep it linked it to JJG's idea thread on Bitcointalk).

If your are referring to some kind of video content on the page, then I think that we have these kinds of suggestions in the back of our minds, though neither of us personally are wanting to do this kind of thing.

Even logically it would seem most appropriate for someone like me (the creator) to explain the content in a video (or a cartoon), but I have not been presenting myself in the actual live video form on the forum, and not even my avatar has been animated, so far.  OpSec, you know.

So then there can be questions whether we could come up with something animated (such as a cartoon in the event that we cannot figure out some other animated content..) as we improve upon the page and even add more pages, so maybe once we have the first few basic pages in place (adding one or more tools), then we might be able to consider possible ways to add some additional animation or visuals to the content.

I am not even opposed to guys making specific suggestions or even proposing some kind of an animation (or visuals) that we could add or even pay for it if someone were to want to negotiate a reasonable price to do it and if they were to present the materials in a way that seems to be more helpful than not.

[bitmover]

JayJuanGee,  price is already 68% above 200WMA.
I was thinking about creating a reinvest reserve.

Considering the actual tool allows us to sell 3 months in advance, it would be interesting to think about buying back those 3 months if we see some corrections ahead (which are very likely to happen)

The point is: when to reinvest?

Considering the 200WMA,  we  could expect the price is about 0-30% 200WMA to reinvest? This could work

[JayJuanGee]

JayJuanGee,  price is already 68% above 200WMA.
I was thinking about creating a reinvest reserve.

Considering the actual tool allows us to sell 3 months in advance, it would be interesting to think about buying back those 3 months if we see some corrections ahead (which are very likely to happen)

The point is: when to reinvest?

Considering the 200WMA,  we  could expect the price is about 0-30% 200WMA to reinvest? This could work

Surely, I have been dancing around this topic, and considering how to potentially address the idea - especially since I think that there could be some disadvantages to liberally employing the advance selling authorizations, and probably your use of such tool would give you advantages of having that hedge, but at the same time it is going to lock you out of being able to sell any more BTC until 1) the 3 months in advance had run and the price dropped below 66% above the 200WMA or 2) if the BTC price stayed within the 66% to 100% range and each month you just continued to add another month so that you continued to stay in 3 months in advance debt, or 3) if the BTC price crosses higher into the next higher threshold (which is the 100% to 200% range - which would allow you to sell up to 5 months in advance - or 2 more months in advance if you had already sold 3 months in advance).

Another thing, about selling within the range, there could still be some questions (or discretion) regarding at what price point to sell - especially since the tool is showing ONLY that the BTC price has barely gotten into the 66% to 100% above the 200WMA range...   right now as I type, it is ONLY at 67.4%.. and yeah surely discretion, but alto potential problems in which if you were to NOT sell in advance, and then the price dips, then you might run regrets at the level that you choose to pull that sell trigger.

Of course,  the buying back could be structured to be triggered at various percentages, so maybe you would want the price to drop a whole level, or maybe you are not so inclined to getting high profits so you merely structure buy backs in 5% price drop increments, and either way you have potential risk that the price does not drop enough to meet your buy backs, but if you are starting to use the tool with the presumption that you have enough BTC, then you should be able to structure any anticipated buy back in a way that contributes towards your remaining somewhat emotionally neutral in terms of whether you buy back or not.

I am glad that you want to potentially play around with the advance withdrawal portion of the tool and attempt to put that part into practice, and personally, I was considering not really employing the months in advance sales until the BTC price were to start to get into the 400% to 600% above the 200-WMA range, and so maybe that would be waiting too long, but I am already employing some variation of my raking tool (which is already a pretty solid tool/practice), so I am not feeling any kind inclination to want to employ the advance withdrawal options of the sustainable withdrawal tool... Maybe I am a bit more comfortable with the raking tool as a more solid foundation that is more incremental in its withdrawal authorization, versus the sustainable withdrawal tool that authorizes quite a few extra months at a time... so maybe it is more complicated to try to attempt to apply both and that may be why my own personal threshold for advance withdrawal is higher up there (even though it is nice to be able to look at the tool and to see that I have the option for advance withdrawal, if I were to choose to want to exercise it).  

Just a personal recommendation, bitmover.. even though the ranges that I selected are somewhat arbitrary rather than graduated (do we need to change the tool to be more graduated), maybe it would be better to wait unti the BTC price is somewhere in the middle of the range before employing the advance withdrawal option?  perhaps? perhaps?  So the middle of the range would be somewhere around 83%.. so maybe if you were to consider pulling the trigger somewhere between 80% and 86%.. that gives you 3% on each side?  Or another possibility could be to stagger your advance withdrawals.. 1 month advance towards the bottom of the range, the second month advance at the middle of the range and the third month in advance towards the top of the range...   I tend to prefer to be a bit of an incrementalist in my approach rather than taking BIG chunks at a time, so these kind of practices can vary from person to person, too.

By the way, my writing of this response to you reminds me that we have not yet put a disclaimer on the page of the tool in order to say that the use of the tool is within the complete responsibility and discretion of the person using such tool and does not in any way constitute financial advice and to employ the tool at your own risk... including to not come crying to any of us if you use the tool or you do not use the tool and then end up losing money as a result of your choices and/or misplaced reliances... and maybe we could also proclaim that both buying bitcoin or refusing to buy bitcoin could result in the loss of money.... so each person is responsible to think for himself/herself when it comes to whether to invest into bitcoin or not, how to invest and what kinds (and levels) of allocations and/or maintenance of such bitcoin investment, if any.

[bitmover]

Just a personal recommendation, bitmover.. even though the ranges that I selected are somewhat arbitrary rather than graduated (do we need to change the tool to be more graduated), maybe it would be better to wait unti the BTC price is somewhere in the middle of the range before employing the advance withdrawal option?  perhaps? perhaps?  So the middle of the range would be somewhere around 83%.. so maybe if you were to consider pulling the trigger somewhere between 80% and 86%.. that gives you 3% on each side?  Or another possibility could be to stagger your advance withdrawals.. 1 month advance towards the bottom of the range, the second month advance at the middle of the range and the third month in advance towards the top of the range...   I tend to prefer to be a bit of an incrementalist in my approach rather than taking BIG chunks at a time, so these kind of practices can vary from person to person, too.

Thanks for sharing your personal recommendation. I will try to hold my hand a bit more.

However,  there is a particular situation here in Brazil.

If I sell up to 5k usd of bitcoin each month,  it is tax free.

If I sell 6k usd , I will have to pay 15% taxes of my gains of everything .

So, if the price next month reaches 60k (15% more) and I make a big sell, I will have only 52k for each btc as I will have to pay 15% in taxes.

I will try to hold until 29 February,  as the price can be higher, but this is risky as the price can also go down.

[Churchillvv]

Opening Post 4:  Reserved - still to be determined

I think while determining what is yet to be discussed here, wallet security maintenance should also be included because one could maintain or hodl bitcoin for as long as need or advise and lose them within few mistakes.

So in portfolio maintenance security should be considered.

I searched on the Google search engine about Bitcoin investment maintenance and this thread of yours JayJuanGee was among the suggested result, what I'm saying in essence is JayJuanGee you're probably not just educating people in the forum but world at large indirectly through this thread and if they only know about the investment and sustainable withdrawal method it's still lacking security (wallet maintenance) as it's paramount for health Bitcoin journey.

[JayJuanGee]

Just a personal recommendation, bitmover.. even though the ranges that I selected are somewhat arbitrary rather than graduated (do we need to change the tool to be more graduated), maybe it would be better to wait unti the BTC price is somewhere in the middle of the range before employing the advance withdrawal option?  perhaps? perhaps?  So the middle of the range would be somewhere around 83%.. so maybe if you were to consider pulling the trigger somewhere between 80% and 86%.. that gives you 3% on each side?  Or another possibility could be to stagger your advance withdrawals.. 1 month advance towards the bottom of the range, the second month advance at the middle of the range and the third month in advance towards the top of the range...   I tend to prefer to be a bit of an incrementalist in my approach rather than taking BIG chunks at a time, so these kind of practices can vary from person to person, too.

Thanks for sharing your personal recommendation. I will try to hold my hand a bit more.

However,  there is a particular situation here in Brazil.

If I sell up to 5k usd of bitcoin each month,  it is tax free.

If I sell 6k usd , I will have to pay 15% taxes of my gains of everything .

So, if the price next month reaches 60k (15% more) and I make a big sell, I will have only 52k for each btc as I will have to pay 15% in taxes.

I will try to hold until 29 February,  as the price can be higher, but this is risky as the price can also go down.

Fair enough.  I can see how there could be an incentive to sell up to $5k per month but not necessarily to sell more than that - unless there were some kind of an extra reason, yet I am not sure how much that would affect my own calculation, except maybe if you are just wanting to make sure that you can get out $5k every months and to be able to hold that in reserves so that you could have that amount each month building up and in safe keeping in order to buy back at later dates if the BTC price dips and without having extra tax consequences, as long as it is within your own personal portfolio management limitations, then surely, you could end up attempting to play that angle in terms of having fiat build up.. but it still does not necessarily get you out of a potential trap of selling more than what you should have had sold based on your own personal concerns that you had not accumulated enough BTC. 

At earlier dates you told me your own perception that you feel that you don't have enough BTC to start to use this tool, so you already likely realize that I don't recommend selling as a way to accumulate more BTC.. so you have to be willing to accept that you may well never be able to buy back those BTC at lower prices and to have that as your parameter for using the tool, even though the higher up in the categories that the BTC price gets relative to spot price, the more that we likely can recognize that the higher prices are likely not sustainable.. but it still does not mean that once the BTC price does ultimately drop to more reasonable levels that it would end up dropping below your earlier sold price.

By the way: I just looked at the tool and I just realized that on the right hand side, we might need total boxes for BTC and dollars that adds up the monthly sale and the advance authorization for sales.. so in the current situation it would be 1 month current month + 3 months in advance and show the results for 4 months for the total potential authorization, and of course we still know that having the authorization does not mean that we need to exercise it.. even though on the tool it says "optional - yet recommended". . maybe we should say "optional-yet recommended to consider, especially if the BTC spot price is 400% or more above the 200-WMA"... hahahahahaha.. so many qualifications in the recommendation.. and at the same time, saying, "don't come crying to us if this recommendation does not work out for you, since you are still responsible for your own choices, actions and/or failures to choose or act."

Opening Post 4:  Reserved - still to be determined

I think while determining what is yet to be discussed here, wallet security maintenance should also be included because one could maintain or hodl bitcoin for as long as need or advise and lose them within few mistakes.

So in portfolio maintenance security should be considered.

Of course, you are correct about the concept of "not-your-keys-not-your-coins," especially in regards to the self-sovereignty and better kinds of assurances of preserving your wealth kinds of angles of bitcoin, but none of my sustainable withdrawal ideas, whether it is the first tool or the raking tool rely upon self-custody in order to work towards trying to carry them out, even though I agree with you that there could be a certain level of either rug pulling or even freezing of accounts/assets or blocking of access to assets/accounts that comes from the use and/or reliance upon 3rd parties to hold our keys and to give you BTC price exposure.

So yes, your BTC price exposure is likely to be more secure if you hold your own keys.... but even that is not a given.. not that I am discouraging the holding of your own keys, since much of the base power and value of bitcoin comes from the fact that normies, and/or institutions and/or rich people, and/or governments are able to hold their own keys without much if any reliance upon 3rd parties.. and there is surely a lot of power in that, which would likely completely eliminate BTC's value proposition if it were not possible for the holding of your own keys.. so yeah.. holding your own keys is pretty damned close to the raison d'etre for bitcoin's having any value beyond various current financial products, assets and/or currencies.

Having said all of that, I am not convinced that I need to post about self-sovereignty in this thread, even though I don't disagree with the point(s) that you are making and maybe such wallet security ideas might fit better in my investment ideas thread (which is broader in scope than this sustainable withdrawal/portfolio maintenance thread).  I am not even that great about the self-sovereignty idea, even though my signature refers to my concerns about "self-custody [being] a right."

I am actually thinking that there are so many times that I am referring to my entry-level fuck you status chart, and that causes me to consider that maybe that entry-level fuck you status chart fits better into this thread rather than my other thread - so yeah, these kinds of ideas overlap, and how they are prioritized and/or organized is not always clear.

I searched on the Google search engine about Bitcoin investment maintenance and this thread of yours JayJuanGee was among the suggested result, what I'm saying in essence is JayJuanGee you're probably not just educating people in the forum but world at large indirectly through this thread and if they only know about the investment and sustainable withdrawal method it's still lacking security (wallet maintenance) as it's paramount for health Bitcoin journey.

I do anticipate that there are some fairly unique angles in the way that I am framing these sustainable withdrawal ideas in regards to bitcoin, yet I will still question the level of the supposed fame and/or importance of these ideas "in the world," since so far (to date) I have not received any requests from either mainstream media and/or bitcoin-related media (such as podcasters) to discuss these ideas, including no DMs nor inquiring posts in any forum threads that are currently related to either ideas of sustainable withdrawal or my related investment ideas topic.

It is almost like you are suggesting that if I were to be writing my BTC-related sustainable investment ideas book, I need a chapter on security and wallet maintenance in order to make my book complete, and if I have not spent enough time developing such topic of wallet maintenance, then I need to spend some additional time engaged and developing my ideas in that direction.. but I am still not convinced about whether I need to elaborate more on that topic in this thread, even though I would not necessarily mind linking to threads that discuss the idea.. if that might potentially be a reasonable and/or practical compromise.

You can also see that Opening Post 5 of my investment ideas thread also has a similar problem of NOT being developed, so far.

Reserved 5
Opening Post 5:  Other considerations / resources, bitcoin podcasts, threads of other forum members or my other threads

Last Edited: December 14, 2021

[bitmover]

Hello JJG.

i see you are always mentioning the tool in WO thread. I am happy that it is being useful!

I am thinking about future improvements, and I was reading this old post again,

I noticed that in your original sheet, you were thinking much about the past months and the overall balance.

Do you think it would be nice to make a chart of this column C??

It is doable, we just need to enter an input where which would mean when to start using this strategy. I was thinking about showing the past, like you did here.

[JayJuanGee]

Hello JJG.
i see you are always mentioning the tool in WO thread. I am happy that it is being useful!

I am thinking about future improvements, and I was reading this old post again,

I noticed that in your original sheet, you were thinking much about the past months and the overall balance.

Do you think it would be nice to make a chart of this column C??

It is doable, we just need to enter an input where which would mean when to start using this strategy. I was thinking about showing the past, like you did here.

I am not opposed to something like that if you think that it might be more helpful than it is ending up to clutter.  When I first started out with the hypothetical 21 BTC, I was trying to show real world use in a kind of hypothetical but realistic kind of way too.. . and so yeah, I had not updated the amounts spent for December, January and February yet... but it would show ongoing spending within the boundaries of the monthly authorizations. and there could be some months in which some advance sales end up happening, too... but I am thinking tentatively to wait until either within the 200%-400% range (BTC spot price above 200-WMA) with 11 months of advance sales or the 400% to 650% range with 23 months in advance.... but yeah, maybe I am still not sure  about the advance month sales and then may be thinking if I do the advance sales then I would try to wait until the BTC price is somewhere in the middle of the range.

If you do it, then I could give you numbers for December, January and February.. so I am not sure how easy it will be to update, but if you already have something in mind then we can see how it turns out.

I keep looking for the brush and/or for the highs and lows for the day to get in there, and I cannot remember if there might have been something else.. or did I mention the abilit to save input numbers and to share.. so like copy link that some of the other tools have.

[bitmover]

If you do it, then I could give you numbers for December, January and February.. so I am not sure how easy it will be to update, but if you already have something in mind then we can see how it turns out.

I was thikning about something simple. Like, selling always the first day of the month (as we cannot know which day will be the best or the worse day to sell).
Then, the stash would be recalculated based in the value to sell each first day of the month.

I keep looking for the brush and/or for the highs and lows for the day to get in there

I was implementing the high/lows for the day. But it will work only for today's date. I don't think there is data available with that precision for so many days back. (to get high and  lows for the day, I need basically data for every minute, or at least every hour, which now i have only 1 data per day/12h , not sure exactly)

Do you that working only with today's date will be good? I can implement it soon.

or did I mention the abilit to save input numbers and to share.. so like copy link that some of the other tools have.

Well, I can do this, it is easy. The point is that there are so few inputs (2 fields). But this is easy task. You will get an unique shareable URL.

[JayJuanGee]

If you do it, then I could give you numbers for December, January and February.. so I am not sure how easy it will be to update, but if you already have something in mind then we can see how it turns out.

I was thikning about something simple. Like, selling always the first day of the month (as we cannot know which day will be the best or the worse day to sell).
Then, the stash would be recalculated based in the value to sell each first day of the month.

For anyone trying to follow this part of the conversation, in regards to the tool.. there may well be a need for a reference... https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy and we also talk about aspects of the tool in bitmover's thread..  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5479482.0

Of course, there is a difference between manually entering your withdrawals (BTC sales), and doing it based on an algorithm, and this kind of historical illustration that you are considering would largely be intended to show how the system would play out if the withdrawals were based on the then applicable formula were to be followed in a kind of strict and formulaic way.  

If you enter that kind of system, then it is no longer going to look like my column C, and that is o.k... but the idea could be retained, and I would recommend starting out with similar kinds of parameters that I had used.. or perhaps starting out with an earlier date in order to show how it would play out with a longer history.

Regarding the parameters to input and to start out with:

Day of the month:  Personally, I wouldn't want to pick the first day of the month, but maybe a date in the middle of the month or towards the end of the month. but if you want it to be consistent then maybe pick something like the 22th or some other date that would not be quite as common.... and I am a bit bothered about the idea of locking in sales all on one date, even though that is easier for an algorithm.  I agree with your assertion that we cannot really know when the dips and the raises are gong to be, but with an actual real world manual application, we might have a bit of an idea, and picking dates can help us to play the little gambling streak that so many folks have.. yeah of course, there may well be personalities (and maybe time constraints) in which they just want to get it done with and then to have that money in cash for the month.. but there also can be desires to spread it out during the month.. and to see what happens.. maybe take half out in the beginning of the month and then see how the other have of the month plays out.  

In my own rendition, I had put the date towards the end of the month because I was considering that various sales/withdrawals would be done at various points in the month in order to reach the maximum allowance for the month at some point towards the end of the month .. and so in my own hypothetical, if the maximum allowance for the month might be 0.064 BTC and then at some point of the month 0.02 BTC might get spent and then another point another 0.02 BTC and then at another point the remaining 0.02 BTC, and with an attempt to stay a little bit below the maximum authorization.  Yet, once all the spending for the month had been accomplished the next month would come and have an additional authorization for 0.063 BTC or some quantity of BTC that would be slightly reduced in terms of total withdrawal authorization amount, so part of the problem if the whole wadd were to be spent at one shot in the beginning of the month would mean a need to wait all the way until the next month before having another authorization.. even though I agree that for an algorithmic rendition, it is going to be easier to pick one day of the month... rather than overly complicating matters or alternatively to be even more realistic in the incrementalism kind of approach, there could be a couple of dates chosen.. the 8th and the 22nd, for example.  

How far to go back: You see that my hypothetical goes back to October 2022, but if you were to get the algorithm to punch in the dates, we might want to go back a bit further to show how the tool would have had worked over a longer period of time, maybe even a whole cycle.... .. so then once it is set up, then I suppose it would just update every month, like you mentioned.

How much BTC and/or value to use:   Of course, I am very much into the idea of using fuck you status and suggesting that default entry-level fuck you status could be considered as $2 million in western location.  However, with this particular tool, I started out with 21 coins in a bit of a random way, and if we use the tool, and we look back to September/October 2022, we see that 21 BTC were then worth $490k-ish in terms of the 200-WMA, but the spot price was then below the 200-WMA at $403k-ish, so at that time with the use of the tool (or the formula), the withdrawal authorization amounts were quite extensively reduced (even if we were to have had used this tool back then), and even in my own hypothetical presentation, the withdrawal amounts were even way below the limits, so I had a lot of reluctance to be selling and/or withdrawing BTC during that time (in terms of the hypothetical example that I used).  

O.k. Here is my updated chart:



I added running total columns (E and J) that show the spot price amount withdrawn and the 200-WMA amount reduced.

We could start out with the same value of $500k in October 2022 or we could go back a whole 4-year cycle, and then the amount of starting out BTC would be different, but I am pretty sure that it will hold its value in terms of measuring the value from the 200-WMA, and we see that my limited chart, the 200-WMA value continues to go up, but I was using a 4% withdrawal rate and even quite below the authorized withdrawal rate.  I think that for any kind of algorithmic application of the formulas (and back testing it), it would be fair and reasonable to use a 6% withdrawal rate and then see how it plays out.

If we were to go back 4-years from now, of course, we would get into the whole calamity of the large correction that was in March 2020, so maybe we could either start from January 2020  or alternatively start from July 2020.

If we were to start from January 1, 2020, the 200-WMA would then have had a value of $5,084.. So a 200 WMA portfolio valued at $500k would be starting with 98.35 BTC.  On the other hand, if we start with July 1, 2020 the 200-WMA would then have had a value of $6,114.. So a 200 WMA portfolio valued at $500k would be starting with 81.78 BTC.

Hopefully all of this is not too crazy-sounding... but I am having quite a bit of confidence in the tool and the various formulas that we have chosen to provide guidance in terms of ways in which to withdraw BTC consistently, persistently and ongoingly while being able to retain dollar value in terms of measuring in terms of the 200-WMA, even if we were to use a 6% withdrawal rate.  

Another thing that seems to worry people is a potential need for the value of their overall BTC portfolio to continue to grow in terms of dollar value so that they will be able to withdraw more value in the future in order to keep up with the inevitable ongoing debasement of the dollar and the value of the dollar... and surely there could be needs to make adjustments to the withdrawal rate, yet I remain confident that currently, even with a 6 % withdrawal rate, the BTC holdings will hold their value and even sufficiently increase in value in regards to valuing holdings in light of the 200-WMA sufficiently enough in order to keep up with inflation (and/or the ongoing persistent and inevitable debasement of the dollar).  

I just went back and did a quick calculation that even starting from October 2022 and with 21 BTC, even if we would have withdrawn at a 6% per year rate, and just do a quickie calculation of 0.1 BTC per month (even though the tool recommends to reduce the rate of withdrawal once the BTC price is less than 25% above the 200-WMA, but even if we withdrew 0.1 BTC for the last 17 months, we would end up with a reduction of our BTC holdings from 21 BTC to 19.3 BTC, and the 200-WMA value of the BTC holdings would have gone from $490k in October 2022 to $605k today.. of course BTC spot price is even greater, but this tool is attempting to help us to emphasize value based on the 200-WMA so that we are less likely to get caught up in the rash exuberance of BTC spot price changes, even though at the same time, we are advantaged to be able to sell BTC and to receive spot price which is usually (but not always) 25% or more higher than the 200-WMA.

See that experimental chart of 0.1 BTC withdrawal per month here:



Even though the flat rate is simpler to follow, it does not take advantage of either reductions or the advance months that the tool attempts to guide.. and of course, if we start with 0.1 BTC, in order to stick with 6%, we should be reducing the amount each month otherwise we are going to be withdrawing way more than 6%, but it still goes with my argument that it is my tentative conclusion that anywhere between 6% and 10% fit within levels of moderate sustainability.. and the more that you would use the guidelines of the tool, then the more likely you could gravitate more and more towards more aggressive levels of withdrawal while at the same time likely being able to retain the dollar value of your BTC holdings in light of its 200-WMA valuations.

I keep looking for the brush and/or for the highs and lows for the day to get in there

I was implementing the high/lows for the day. But it will work only for today's date. I don't think there is data available with that precision for so many days back. (to get high and  lows for the day, I need basically data for every minute, or at least every hour, which now i have only 1 data per day/12h , not sure exactly)

Do you that working only with today's date will be good? I can implement it soon.

It would be nice to be able to go back, but if we are not able to find any kind of reliable data source for that, then at least having the current date would be better than nothing.

Part of the reason for the highs and lows was to maybe sometimes to go back and compare the various actual prices of any particular day to the 200-WMA.. so sometimes the answer in the tool might not show all of the possibilities for the day, since sometimes authorizations for how many months in advance to withdraw or even if the amount of withdrawal might be reduced if the BTC price is below certain thresholds that we chose to use in the tool.

or did I mention the abilit to save input numbers and to share.. so like copy link that some of the other tools have.

Well, I can do this, it is easy. The point is that there are so few inputs (2 fields). But this is easy task. You will get an unique shareable URL.

I see that in the saved inputs there seem to ONLY be 2, but wouldn't 3-4 inputs be possible?  or is it not possible to save or share 3 & 4?

1) withdrawal rate (percentage)

2) size of BTC stash

3) date

4) whether date is selected or not

Maybe 3 and 4 are just one field.

[bitmover]

.. even though I agree that for an algorithmic rendition, it is going to be easier to pick one day of the month... rather than overly complicating matters or alternatively to be even more realistic in the incrementalism kind of approach, there could be a couple of dates chosen.. the 8th and the 22nd, for example.  

How far to go back: You see that my hypothetical goes back to October 2022, but if you were to get the algorithm to punch in the dates, we might want to go back a bit further to show how the tool would have had worked over a longer period of time, maybe even a whole cycle.... .. so then once it is set up, then I suppose it would just update every month, like you mentioned.

I can add 2 withdrawal days, 8 and 22.

The algorithm start date can be a user input. Any date he like.

It will also use the other inputs (stash size and withdrawal rate).

Then it will show a simulation of how much btc(and usd value) would have been withdrawal, and how much is left. And a chart with that data.

I think it will look nice.

It would be nice to be able to go back, but if we are not able to find any kind of reliable data source for that, then at least having the current date would be better than nothing.

Ok, this is easy I will take a look into this and the shareable url

[JayJuanGee]

.. even though I agree that for an algorithmic rendition, it is going to be easier to pick one day of the month... rather than overly complicating matters or alternatively to be even more realistic in the incrementalism kind of approach, there could be a couple of dates chosen.. the 8th and the 22nd, for example.  

How far to go back: You see that my hypothetical goes back to October 2022, but if you were to get the algorithm to punch in the dates, we might want to go back a bit further to show how the tool would have had worked over a longer period of time, maybe even a whole cycle.... .. so then once it is set up, then I suppose it would just update every month, like you mentioned.

I can add 2 withdrawal days, 8 and 22.

The algorithm start date can be a user input. Any date he like.

It will also use the other inputs (stash size and withdrawal rate).

Then it will show a simulation of how much btc(and usd value) would have been withdrawal, and how much is left. And a chart with that data.

I think it will look nice.

That sounds even more amazing than I was expecting.  You might become eligible for a Nobel prize.. ahahahahaha..

It would be nice to be able to go back, but if we are not able to find any kind of reliable data source for that, then at least having the current date would be better than nothing.

Ok, this is easy I will take a look into this and the shareable url

ok

[bitmover]

That sounds even more amazing than I was expecting.  You might become eligible for a Nobel prize.. ahahahahaha..

ahaha i hope I can get up to your expectations.

I was implementing the high/lows for the day. But it will work only for today's date. I don't think there is data available with that precision for so many days back. (to get high and  lows for the day, I need basically data for every minute, or at least every hour, which now i have only 1 data per day/12h , not sure exactly)
Do you that working only with today's date will be good? I can implement it soon.

It would be nice to be able to go back, but if we are not able to find any kind of reliable data source for that, then at least having the current date would be better than nothing.

I just did this one, and also a "bonus" 200W highs and lows (I think this fits well in the tool).



https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

I will see about the other items soon!