MicroStrategy (MSTR) as a GBTC alternative

[takuma sato]

I would like to know if anyone has MSTR shares. Does it correlate well with BTC? I am considering using Michael Saylor's stock as a way to get into BTC with fiat without being blocked by banks. Trying to buy BTC with exchanges it's becoming annoying, banks block transactions, it's just annoying. Then there's the risk that the exchange fucks up somehow. If they get hacked, now some bastards will be able to buy your dox next to your BTC movements on the darknet, so I was looking at alternatives and only found GBTC, but I don't get how the whole premium stuff works. There's some sort of an ETF in Canada but I have no access to it.

The only alternative i've seen is the MSTR shares, I can buy this on my bank right now with no problem, any amount I want, and I would have BTC exposure without risks, other than having to trust Saylor with not screwing up on the custody side, but he seems to know what he is doing. From what I've seen correlation is not 1:1 but close to it. With 150k+ BTC bought, his company is almost a de-facto ETF. In fact I would trust Saylor more than an ETF, since this guy is an actual bitcoiner, unlike Blackrock and co.

I know the best thing to do is to be your self custodian, but sometimes you have to be realistic. If you sold a property for like 300k, and you want to buy 300k worth of BTC, you are going to face problems when buying on an exchange, because they'll block your transaction. With MSTR, I've already got the funds ready, just a click away and I've got the BTC exposure I want. It is also not a 10+ year move. I want exposure for like 1 to 2 years, hoping BTC does not disappoint as an hedge during a potential recession.

So my question is, does anyone own shares, and has anyone researched this at any serious level to recommend anything I should know before I buy in?

[1714802050]

1714802050

[1714802050]

1714802050

[1714802050]

1714802050

[1714802050]

1714802050

[adaseb]

SEC back in 2021 approved a bitcoin etf. It’s just cash settled because it follows the CME Bitcoin futures. It’s ticker is BITO. And I am pretty sure if you want to trade actively there is an leveraged 2x bitcoin etf and also a short bitcoin etf.

I think these are better alternatives to MSTR. Sure it follows bitcoins price pretty close but I think buying the Bito shares is more of a legit way of exposure to bitcoin. Or wait 1 month and just buy the bitcoin etf spot based, which everyone thinks it will get approved.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

In fact I would trust Saylor more than an ETF, since this guy is an actual bitcoiner, unlike Blackrock and co.

Read more about him and what he did during dot.com bubble. What he promised and how average investor ended up trusting him. in fact, this is visible in the chart. Dump form $3200 to $20 in 1.5 year. Saylor simply stuck to bitcoin, which became the last resort for his unprofitable company. I wouldn't trust him, because history shows that he likes to swim in the tears of his investors.
What you say is exactly what saylor wanted to become (or have to become) to save his company. And I'm not entirely sure if he actually is what he claims to be.

As for Bitcoin exposure, many fully regulated brokers have Bitcoin CFDs available. My regulated broker has CFDs on over 100 crypto trading pairs. this will be enough for you, at least while waiting for bitcoin etf, which will probably arrive in a month.

[takuma sato]

In fact I would trust Saylor more than an ETF, since this guy is an actual bitcoiner, unlike Blackrock and co.

Read more about him and what he did during dot.com bubble. What he promised and how average investor ended up trusting him. in fact, this is visible in the chart. Dump form $3200 to $20 in 1.5 year. Saylor simply stuck to bitcoin, which became the last resort for his unprofitable company. I wouldn't trust him, because history shows that he likes to swim in the tears of his investors.
What you say is exactly what saylor wanted to become (or have to become) to save his company. And I'm not entirely sure if he actually is what he claims to be.

As for Bitcoin exposure, many fully regulated brokers have Bitcoin CFDs available. My regulated broker has CFDs on over 100 crypto trading pairs. this will be enough for you, at least while waiting for bitcoin etf, which will probably arrive in a month.

Well Saylor has a stack of the underlying asset, a massive one that is, and is doing a great job at leveraging and managing the way in which he has borrowed debt. He's basically got billions worth of fiat at very low interest rates, even 0%, and now he is going to be able to keep buying Bitcoin dips for years to come, he's at 1+ billion profit. I don't know what he did in the past, but so far he is doing great. Even Adam Back is buying MSTR and has praised his company in the way they are delivering a premium. He also has become a hardcore Bitcoiner and knows what he is doing. His company is now profitable and he is managing debt properly so I don't know what else would you ask for as an investor.

Also, if you watch any chart of the companies that are doing great nowadays, they all nosedived hardcore on 2000, but those are the winners of today. If he found a way to win by becoming a Bitcoin's holding company then so be it.

[franky1]

TL:dr; i wouldnt invest in microstrategy


saylor done a recent interview where he was saying how his shares have grown better then his competing markets

the problem is from just his business function he is not doing well. its the bitcoin that is propping up his share value to appear as doing better then his competitor businesses.

https://youtu.be/Kn3JAUuqVKw?t=475
listen to him saying bitcoin from aug2020 to oct 2023 has gone up 190% which he calculates to 40%
and then he lists other assets/competitors doing like 25%

he talks about leveraging the coin he had to then buy more coin to get him to a valuation of 242% for microstrategies.
the only problem is as he hints at his business and his holdings can take a dump and due to leveraging can wipe him out

im not talking about if bitcoin at (oct)$30k dropped to $10k having 33% value left. im talking about the leverage if debts are called in, wiping him out and putting him in the minus. complete bankruptcy and still owing money even after liquidating everything

yes his strategy of "buying low" because yes bitcoin is at a low compared to expectations of the next halving cycle
but anything can happen in the next couple years before those amount value up to then pay off and settle the debt in later years

so lets take microstrategy march 12th 2021 listing -> today
$788 -> $562 = 71% of start value

so lets take bitcoin performance from march 12th 2021 listing ->today
$61.288 -> $41.755 = 68% of start value

so microstrategy real business performance (without bitcoin added value) has only grown 3% in 142weeks
thats not even 2% a year. not even 1.5% a year its not even 1.1% a year growth of the actual business
meaning his private business is not even growing above inflation.

micro strategy is being held up purely by bitcoin, but its actual business is not growing to even meet inflation

think about it if the S&p is up 25% but his business if it held no bitcoin would only be up 3%.. which is a poor performing business which would need to do some cutting to bring it to double figure % to come into line with 2.5 years of inflation. if it cant slim down to get more business performance it may end up having to take some assets out to keep the main business running (staff wont want to work with only a 1.09% yearly payrise)


unlike a SPOT ETF which is not about leveraging and is instead collateral pegs. microstrategy valuation is based on leveraged assets.. meaning there is hidden debt that can be called in if things take a turn

[joniboini]

Also, if you watch any chart of the companies that are doing great nowadays, they all nosedived hardcore on 2000, but those are the winners of today. If he found a way to win by becoming a Bitcoin's holding company then so be it.

I guess it comes back to your investment goal. If your purpose is not to save BTC/sats, and just want to look for investment return, there is no harm in buying stocks as long as you know the risk. P

Most members in this forum probably want long-term exposure though, so I doubt anyone would suggest people buy shares or something similar (wrapped Bitcoin, etc) since the risk is greater compared to buying BTC directly. It can be annoying sometimes, but that is a fair price for most people.

I believe 1 or 2 years is still a very long time for crypto exposure. Just take a look at how wild the chart can be. If your goal is to get BTC I believe it is still worth trying to buy them directly instead of looking for exposure through indirect means. Have you tried P2P?

[takuma sato]

TL:dr; i wouldnt invest in microstrategy


saylor done a recent interview where he was saying how his shares have grown better then his competing markets

the problem is from just his business function he is not doing well. its the bitcoin that is propping up his share value to appear as doing better then his competitor businesses.

https://youtu.be/Kn3JAUuqVKw?t=475
listen to him saying bitcoin from aug2020 to oct 2023 has gone up 190% which he calculates to 40%
and then he lists other assets/competitors doing like 25%

he talks about leveraging the coin he had to then buy more coin to get him to a valuation of 242% for microstrategies.
the only problem is as he hints at his business and his holdings can take a dump and due to leveraging can wipe him out

im not talking about if bitcoin at (oct)$30k dropped to $10k having 33% value left. im talking about the leverage if debts are called in, wiping him out and putting him in the minus. complete bankruptcy and still owing money even after liquidating everything

yes his strategy of "buying low" because yes bitcoin is at a low compared to expectations of the next halving cycle
but anything can happen in the next couple years before those amount value up to then pay off and settle the debt in later years

so lets take microstrategy march 12th 2021 listing -> today
$788 -> $562 = 71% of start value

so lets take bitcoin performance from march 12th 2021 listing ->today
$61.288 -> $41.755 = 68% of start value

so microstrategy real business performance (without bitcoin added value) has only grown 3% in 142weeks
thats not even 2% a year. not even 1.5% a year its not even 1.1% a year growth of the actual business
meaning his private business is not even growing above inflation.

micro strategy is being held up purely by bitcoin, but its actual business is not growing to even meet inflation

think about it if the S&p is up 25% but his business if it held no bitcoin would only be up 3%.. which is a poor performing business which would need to do some cutting to bring it to double figure % to come into line with 2.5 years of inflation. if it cant slim down to get more business performance it may end up having to take some assets out to keep the main business running (staff wont want to work with only a 1.09% yearly payrise)


unlike a SPOT ETF which is not about leveraging and is instead collateral pegs. microstrategy valuation is based on leveraged assets.. meaning there is hidden debt that can be called in if things take a turn

ETF management fees will eat up a lot of the profit, so MSTR will remain an attractive Bitcoin proxy. Saylor's management of his borrowings are exceptionally well placed and the chances of getting liquidated are insanely low that you have to question if you would still hold the underlying if it went that low. There's nothing wrong with debt and leverage as long as it's reasonable. If one is long Bitcoin then the risk:reward that MSTR offers is not something insane to the point you wouldn't sleep at night thinking you would get margin called. His business continues to offer a product that a lot of companies use and he will continue to expand to AI and at the end of the day he has willingly turned his company into a Bitcoin's holding and he is doing it how someone that wanted this proxy would expect. If Bitcoin does not shit the bed I believe Saylor is on track to be remembered for making the most profitable bet ever.

https://bitcointreasuries.net/

[franky1]

im not talking about the bitcoin side.. im talking about the functional business of microstrategies..
the functional business of microstrategies is under performing compared to its competitors. and if it got into trouble would then need to liquidate bitcoins to prop up the functional business (pay salaries and leases)

[slashz9]

where you live is very uncomfortable, fortunately in my country the freedom to buy crypto is still allowed, but if they force you or someone else to buy MSTR and it will become your bitcoin, maybe it is taxed or whatever that makes them allow you to buy bitcoin but via mstr.

[NewRanger]

where you live is very uncomfortable, fortunately in my country the freedom to buy crypto is still allowed, but if they force you or someone else to buy MSTR and it will become your bitcoin, maybe it is taxed or whatever that makes them allow you to buy bitcoin but via mstr.

Moreover when we deal with fiat currency, we need to verify personal identification. Yes. A smart move from the OP and currently we are in a consistent and very fast rising price trend which means the more people buy Bitcoin the stronger it gets but in reality we also have to balance various factors including convenience, security and transaction costs and other.

[slapper]

A clever solution to fiat-to-crypto conversion issues. MSTR's BTC holdings partially correlate with Bitcoin's price. Remember, you're investing in a company, not Bitcoin. Your investment is subject to the company's performance and decisions, including Michael Saylor's. His pro-Bitcoin stance gives him confidence, but what about MicroStrategy's commercial risks? We must consider these. You're right about avoiding exchange risks and banking difficulties. Direct BTC purchases are hazardous because to regulatory complexities and exchange hacking and identity theft. MSTR shares avoid these difficulties but bring stock market volatility and company-specific risks. The link with BTC is close but not identical. Market sentiment, company news, and economic factors affect MSTR stock prices. Thus, indirect BTC exposure comes with a new risk-reward calculation. Consider these criteria against your investing horizon and risk tolerance.

[wajik-tempe]

Utilizing MSTR as a fiat gateway into Bitcoin bypasses hurdles associated with traditional exchanges, streamlining the process. Nevertheless, prudent due diligence is essential, particularly regarding Saylor's custody practices. Assess the company's security measures and consider potential market influences on MSTR's performance

[takuma sato]

im not talking about the bitcoin side.. im talking about the functional business of microstrategies..
the functional business of microstrategies is under performing compared to its competitors. and if it got into trouble would then need to liquidate bitcoins to prop up the functional business (pay salaries and leases)

But their massive BTC stack wouldn't make that a big deal isn't it? we have Saylor selling 5000 shares everyday until april so we are going to see what that does to the price. So far the premium plummeted to the point it was negative and today it was interesting as MSTR surged 3.8% or so while BTC was struggling, miners did as well underperform. So perhaps the equilibrium has been reached. I doubt anyone holding MSTR now wants to sell for ETF, they already did, so that may be priced out. If MSTR can continue to deliver a cool 1.25-1.5% premium on BTC performance the stock will continue to be desirable for those that want some leverage in BTC. Of course the business side has to be taken care of. According to Adam Back Saylor is doing good. And if we compare ETF to MSTR im not sure what's safer. I trust Saylor more than these guys as a custodian. Mostly because Saylor has his own stack so he knows what he's doing.

[franky1]

im not talking about the bitcoin side.. im talking about the functional business of microstrategies..
the functional business of microstrategies is under performing compared to its competitors. and if it got into trouble would then need to liquidate bitcoins to prop up the functional business (pay salaries and leases)

But their massive BTC stack wouldn't make that a big deal isn't it? we have Saylor selling 5000 shares everyday until april so we are going to see what that does to the price. So far the premium plummeted to the point it was negative and today it was interesting as MSTR surged 3.8% or so while BTC was struggling, miners did as well underperform. So perhaps the equilibrium has been reached. I doubt anyone holding MSTR now wants to sell for ETF, they already did, so that may be priced out. If MSTR can continue to deliver a cool 1.25-1.5% premium on BTC performance the stock will continue to be desirable for those that want some leverage in BTC. Of course the business side has to be taken care of. According to Adam Back Saylor is doing good. And if we compare ETF to MSTR im not sure what's safer. I trust Saylor more than these guys as a custodian. Mostly because Saylor has his own stack so he knows what he's doing.

saylor is exiting his SHARE holdings of microstrategy. to then get out and then go solo and purchase BTC OUTSIDE of microstrategy
the separate solo BTC saylor is buying is not going to be collateralised into micro strategy

..
and although microstrategy does have some btc within the company as collateral. its still not a bitcoin business.. and its actual business operations can fail and cause share holder problems(forcing them to sell btc to keep company afloat which can be a downward spiral)
and i would not take advice from adam back for multiple reasons.

ETF are 100% pegged to btc. so ETF shares are 100% operationally exposed to bitcoins price and should match daily(bar the fee)

however both micro and ETF's are not allowing users to direct hold/have access to BTC by being a share holder.

..
another thing to note.
lets use Microstrategies january peak of 699.51
lets use bitcoins january peak of 46995.1

that puts MS at a 67.18 MS share peg to 1btc

however within a fortnight. the peg does not remain
lets use Microstrategies price of 488.30 today
lets use bitcoins january price of 42585.60 today

that puts MS at a 87.21 MS share peg to 1btc

thats a peg drop of 29.81% in a fortnight
thus is a show that microstrategy dropped away from bitcoin by 29%
and this aint the last time microstrategy can depeg further, especially if its actual business takes a hit for many reasons


...
wit that said, if i trusted MS the numbers show the share price is undervalued vs assets
Micro strategy supposedly has over 180,000btc ( x $42500=$7,650,000,000 assets)
microstrategy has a float of shares of 12.64M ( x488.30 = $6,172,112,000 share cap value)
so is showing to have assets of $7.6bill but share value of $6.17bill
where by the shares compared to suggested asset value(189k btc) should be ~$635/share+

[stompix]

Trying to buy BTC with exchanges it's becoming annoying, banks block transactions, it's just annoying.

Which bank blocked you to what exchange?
I find it almost incomprehensible the story on how because you had trouble buying from a CEX you resort to buying shares with a promise of ..unicorns!
MicroStrategy can go belly up tomorrow, they might disclose two months later in their filling that they've already sold half of their coins, they might get hacked, they might get sold, and even worse if Saylor does what he did in the past you risk the whole company to be delisted! So why

In fact I would trust Saylor more than an ETF, since this guy is an actual bitcoiner, unlike Blackrock and co.

You do what?
https://twitter.com/saylor/status/413478389329428480?lang=en



He is in for the $, once there is no more opportunity for better returns than the stock exchange he will dump his load on the faces of his believers, get the cash and let them figure out how they've been again tricked by a wannabe messiah!

[mindrust]

If you think Michael Saylor is a good portfolio manager, you can do that. He looks like a btc supporter lately but remember he used to be hater. I know people’s opinions can change but what if he becomes a hater again? Do you trust his judgement? If you don’t want to trust someone else’s judgement then get gbtc. Or better yet, just bitcoin directly from an exchange. Get a hardware wallet and hold your coins there. It is not as hard as you think.