So I guess we sell at $48626 ?

[adaseb]

Because the 68.2 Fibonacci level is always right. Even though in 2021 we broke higher to $69K that area originally had a significant pullback. Also the $48000 area is where that pivot is which was the high on March 2022. Not investment advice but its either a coincidence or this fib level is crazy accurate.

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[Tytanowy Janusz]

Play heads or tails 5 times and there is a chance that it will come up heads 5 times. This does not mean that the result will always be heads. The same here. Sample N=3 (number of repetitions of the pattern that occurred in 2017 - rebound from 0.618 FIB) is definitely too little to draw conclusions about how accurate this indicator is. But like any good technical analysis indicator, Fibbonaci retracements have accurate data available online about the indicator's performance:

"How Accurate Are Fibonacci Retracements? Some experts believe that Fibonacci retracements can forecast about 70% of market movements, especially when a specific price point is predicted."
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/fibonacci-rules.asp

"Overall, Fibonacci retracement was accurate only 37% of the time. If you exclusively used this indicator for trading, you would have more losing trades than winners. Additionally, the golden rule of 61.8% was no more likely to be reliable than any other Fibonacci level."
https://www.liberatedstocktrader.com/how-to-use-fibonacci-retracement/

In my opinion, in the case of crypto, this indicator is better than in the broader market, because price here is not influenced by non-technical factors (such as the company's financial results), so it is probably closer to 70% than 37%, but it is definitely not 100%.

Also 48k is a good target to take profit.

[Yamane_Keto]

You expect us to return to $36,000, so you are betting that it is the right time to sell? This may be true, but the price will return to rise in one way or another next May and may break $70,000 before the end of the year. Selling now as part of a short-term trading plan will be understandable, but it is not a long-term selling point.

Relying on 0.618 FIB while ignoring the rest of the indicators may cause a loss.

[peter0425]

You expect us to return to $36,000, so you are betting that it is the right time to sell? This may be true, but the price will return to rise in one way or another next May and may break $70,000 before the end of the year. Selling now as part of a short-term trading plan will be understandable, but it is not a long-term selling point.

Relying on 0.618 FIB while ignoring the rest of the indicators may cause a loss.

still all is about speculation , the graphs shows some significant figures but are those truly coming? yet this is a decision from us to believe as we are the one who might lose once this cross different path.

Trust bitcoin , that is the only thing that for me matters in this kind of situation , bitcoin climbing now to break 42$k https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ and what comes next is up to us , I might consider selling at 45k but might change my mind and keep the holding , who really cares? no one but me so yes i will decide depending in my beliefs and views.

[mich]

Well I think this is when we need to make some important decisions for ourself. The price of Bitcoin is up 150% just in this year so there is profits to take from that.
So if we are thinking about taking some profits it is a good time to sell some. I think there is going to be a correction when ETF approval does happen.
And then also for the Bitcoin halving next year.  I am 'bullish' and will not be selling any of my Bitcoin. But I do think there is many investors who will. It is a hard thing to not take 'free money'.

[EarnOnVictor]

Because the 68.2 Fibonacci level is always right. Even though in 2021 we broke higher to $69K that area originally had a significant pullback. Also the $48000 area is where that pivot is which was the high on March 2022. Not investment advice but its either a coincidence or this fib level is crazy accurate.
-snip-

I think it's time that we stop the comparison but instead, totally focus on what is in front of us. Bitcoin has put an end to all these cycle and history comparisons, it has proved that it is an asset and a true market. By this, it will always be dynamic and no one can know exactly what it will do at all times.

Besides, I can't see how you plotted this Fibonacci accurately. I am not judging but all I know about Fibonacci are not what you are currently displaying, maybe you can add more light to that.

As for Bitcoin itself, it's bullish, and at this point, I will not call any target as it's capable of achieving what we do not expect. All I can assure anyone of is that it's on its way to its ATH. Therefore, it would be wise for everyone to get prepared for it as we maximize our investment this season.

[naira]

Well I think this is when we need to make some important decisions for ourself. The price of Bitcoin is up 150% just in this year so there is profits to take from that.
So if we are thinking about taking some profits it is a good time to sell some. I think there is going to be a correction when ETF approval does happen.
And then also for the Bitcoin halving next year.  I am 'bullish' and will not be selling any of my Bitcoin. But I do think there is many investors who will. It is a hard thing to not take 'free money'.

So far I don't have an agenda to sell in the near future, my target is still to try to collect more while I can. Because whatever the level of movement today and facing the end of the year is always a little worrying. Indeed, when you are optimistic that the price is above $40k, this is a kind of manipulation, but for traders it will be quite profitable to divert attention to altcoins, where if the Bitcoin price flattens out, altseason could take over the market for a while.

[TravelMug]

Well I think this is when we need to make some important decisions for ourself. The price of Bitcoin is up 150% just in this year so there is profits to take from that.
So if we are thinking about taking some profits it is a good time to sell some. I think there is going to be a correction when ETF approval does happen.
And then also for the Bitcoin halving next year.  I am 'bullish' and will not be selling any of my Bitcoin. But I do think there is many investors who will. It is a hard thing to not take 'free money'.

So far I don't have an agenda to sell in the near future, my target is still to try to collect more while I can. Because whatever the level of movement today and facing the end of the year is always a little worrying. Indeed, when you are optimistic that the price is above $40k, this is a kind of manipulation, but for traders it will be quite profitable to divert attention to altcoins, where if the Bitcoin price flattens out, altseason could take over the market for a while.

Of course, majority of us are long term holders, so we don't want to sell when the price is not at all time high. But there could be short term traders here looking for fib numbers and who knows $48k is already big for these kind of traders.

And so it's interesting to see if there will be sellers and then what will be the market reaction to that. Will we continue to buy or there could be some sort of others pushing the sell button as well?

[pooya87]

Bitcoins current all time high is sitting at $70k and the higher we go the less willing people are going to be to sell their bitcoins. Meaning if price reaches $48k there are more people who would want to buy bitcoin and push the price over the resistance at $50k and beyond to reach the previous ATH again.

And of course we may finally see a momentum build up that breaks through all these prices one by one.

[sana54210]

I think it's time that we stop the comparison but instead, totally focus on what is in front of us. Bitcoin has put an end to all these cycle and history comparisons, it has proved that it is an asset and a true market. By this, it will always be dynamic and no one can know exactly what it will do at all times.

Besides, I can't see how you plotted this Fibonacci accurately. I am not judging but all I know about Fibonacci are not what you are currently displaying, maybe you can add more light to that.

As for Bitcoin itself, it's bullish, and at this point, I will not call any target as it's capable of achieving what we do not expect. All I can assure anyone of is that it's on its way to its ATH. Therefore, it would be wise for everyone to get prepared for it as we maximize our investment this season.

I won't personally sell, I agree that keep looking at the past is not really the way to go, not really the perfect way to invest neither. I understand it may help with trading, but it is not the greatest way to invest long term, only for short term trading. I have a "friend" (someone I know on telegram) that turned 300k into 800k by just trading short term futures during the last 2 months, it's bull period so he just got 5x long futures and kept holding and sold the day it goes up and then bought again and kept repeating and because the price kept going higher and higher in the last 2 months he made a lot of money.

For those type of people this might be true and working, but for people like me who rather hold it for 20 years, the idea to sell at 48k doesn't make sense to me, I know for sure that in the next 1 year the price will go significantly higher than 48k, it will probably be over ATH as well, so why would I end up selling during this period?

[salad daging]

Well I think this is when we need to make some important decisions for ourself. The price of Bitcoin is up 150% just in this year so there is profits to take from that.
So if we are thinking about taking some profits it is a good time to sell some. I think there is going to be a correction when ETF approval does happen.
And then also for the Bitcoin halving next year.  I am 'bullish' and will not be selling any of my Bitcoin. But I do think there is many investors who will. It is a hard thing to not take 'free money'.

Maybe for those who have bought at the lowest price at once then already have a 150% profit at the current price, then what about those who bought the DCA method at an average price between the range ($25K to $35K) and even today there are still many who buy of course their profits have not been maximized but the potential increase will be much higher.

But it comes back to them whether they want to take faster profits now or not? What is clear is that I think there are more survivors than sellers.
About the approval of the ETF, people's views are a new breakthrough to go bullish and there are still many who are waiting for this news at the beginning of this year, as for those who say it will be corrected it is still very possible because the price of bitcoin can still go up and down.

I myself will not sell until the halving and may look at the end of 2024.

[Wapfika]

Play heads or tails 5 times and there is a chance that it will come up heads 5 times. This does not mean that the result will always be heads. The same here. Sample N=3 (number of repetitions of the pattern that occurred in 2017 - rebound from 0.618 FIB) is definitely too little to draw conclusions about how accurate this indicator is. But like any good technical analysis indicator, Fibbonaci retracements have accurate data available online about the indicator's performance:

The nature of self fulfilling prophecy on technical and fundamental analysis makes this kind prediction almost accurate. Just like Bitcoin halving which people looking forward and use to hype the market.

If many traders see this pattern and share everywhere I guess this will likely to happened since many traders is expecting already this big pull back after big pump using the history on charts.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

The nature of self fulfilling prophecy on technical and fundamental analysis makes this kind prediction almost accurate. Just like Bitcoin halving which people looking forward and use to hype the market.

If many traders see this pattern and share everywhere I guess this will likely to happened since many traders is expecting already this big pull back after big pump using the history on charts.

the problem is that your theorem doesn't hold up mathematically because in the market the majority is usually wrong. Research suggests that about 70 to 90% of traders lose money. So it can't be that most people look at some pictures with charts and start to believe in them and that's how it will be... usually it's the other way around.
when bitcoin was going to $60k, everyone was drawing charts that it would reach $100k, when it dump to $30k, no one expected that we would revise the levels of $60k, when everyone was calling $100k again and yet we fell to 15k, where most people were screaming for $10k and we are now here at $40k. horde is mostly wrong.

[ndutndut]

Well I think this is when we need to make some important decisions for ourself. The price of Bitcoin is up 150% just in this year so there is profits to take from that.
So if we are thinking about taking some profits it is a good time to sell some. I think there is going to be a correction when ETF approval does happen.
And then also for the Bitcoin halving next year.  I am 'bullish' and will not be selling any of my Bitcoin. But I do think there is many investors who will. It is a hard thing to not take 'free money'.

Everyone has their own target in holding BTC, so of course the decision taken is also different if I myself have no plans to sell BTC at this time because the target is long term and if the target has not been achieved I will not sell it. Because I was traumatized several times by buying BTC and when the price rose a few% I sold it because I had made a small profit and in the hope of wanting to buy again when the price fell but the price of BTC continued to increase so I was left behind. This started when the price of BTC was still $30k, after that incident I was determined not to sell BTC again before my desired target was reached.

[BITCOIN4X]

Bitcoins current all time high is sitting at $70k and the higher we go the less willing people are going to be to sell their bitcoins. Meaning if price reaches $48k there are more people who would want to buy bitcoin and push the price over the resistance at $50k and beyond to reach the previous ATH again.

And of course we may finally see a momentum build up that breaks through all these prices one by one.

Bitcoin's current all-time high is $69,044.77 according to CG, but Binance recorded the highest value at $68,789.62. I certainly agree that if the price of bitcoin manages to break through $48k, then there will certainly be a bigger push to break through resistance at $50k and above. It all still depends on the SEC and ETF situation, but if the ETF is approved then I and most other users can expect $70k achieved easily.

Personally I wouldn't sell my bitcoin at $48k if it hits this December, but I'm likely to hang on whatever the price volatility is. The long-term plan is a priority that must be maintained even though I can accumulate by selling high and buying low. But this is an individual's choice and strategy, and I don't plan on selling it anytime soon even if it could reach $50k this December.

[hatshepsut93]

The recent candles are already so vertical that it seems unlikely that this growth will  continue for long and will touch the $48k level in the next days - the correction is long overdue and if I were a short-term speculator I would dump already. This recent rally reminds me of the previous rallies that happened before the halvening - they all stopped abruptly because they were premature, as the true bull run starts long after the halvening, typically 6-9 months.

[sheenshane]

Guys guys, remember that there's still a Bitcoin halving that will occur and possibly ATH will come after that happened.
Selling at $48k isn't a bad idea if you know you've gained profit from it but it's ideal to wait until there's a new ATH comes.

This isn't new to us, after a recent pump there must be a correction as we expected but it could be also fueling again to jump into a higher remarkable price.  Remember also that in most cases, the last quarter of the year is most likely a green month of the chart.

[yhiaali3]

Now that Bitcoin broke 41K$ and shot with a big candle above it, it is easy to reach 48K$, I think, profit taking will be good for speculators who bought at lower levels.

48K$ is a good number for making profits, but it is not my goal at the moment. I am mostly waiting for it to exceed 70Kِ$ within the next year in order to sell.

We will certainly see a lot of selling pressure at the 48K$ price area for speculators and some investors, but the majority of Holders are waiting for the next peak after the halving to sell their Bitcoin.

[philipma1957]

Because the 68.2 Fibonacci level is always right. Even though in 2021 we broke higher to $69K that area originally had a significant pullback. Also the $48000 area is where that pivot is which was the high on March 2022. Not investment advice but its either a coincidence or this fib level is crazy accurate.

2017


2019


2021


2023-2024

amazing how close to my threads number.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5472517.0

48173 is my number

[bitterguy28]

Well I think this is when we need to make some important decisions for ourself. The price of Bitcoin is up 150% just in this year so there is profits to take from that.
So if we are thinking about taking some profits it is a good time to sell some. I think there is going to be a correction when ETF approval does happen.
And then also for the Bitcoin halving next year.  I am 'bullish' and will not be selling any of my Bitcoin. But I do think there is many investors who will. It is a hard thing to not take 'free money'.

So far I don't have an agenda to sell in the near future, my target is still to try to collect more while I can. Because whatever the level of movement today and facing the end of the year is always a little worrying. Indeed, when you are optimistic that the price is above $40k, this is a kind of manipulation, but for traders it will be quite profitable to divert attention to altcoins, where if the Bitcoin price flattens out, altseason could take over the market for a while.

Of course, majority of us are long term holders, so we don't want to sell when the price is not at all time high. But there could be short term traders here looking for fib numbers and who knows $48k is already big for these kind of traders.

I am planning to sell in case we hit 45k usd to double my chance when time comes bitcoin dumped like what expected before this year ends or after January because I believe that we are lowering or correction before the halving season so yes lets have it this way and not to complete Holding.

And so it's interesting to see if there will be sellers and then what will be the market reaction to that. Will we continue to buy or there could be some sort of others pushing the sell button as well?

i may have interest to invest more or maybe sell and buy ,  like what many keeps saying as continues holding is not so advisable in our days now.
because the market sometimes goes roller coaster or sometimes making difference to the time we need to sell .