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Author Topic: So... is Venezuela going to invade Guyana? [ONGOING?]  (Read 63 times)
paxmao (OP)
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December 07, 2023, 10:50:47 PM
Merited by suchmoon (1)
 #1

There are indication in that sense, Venezuela has been firstly under Hugo Chavez then under Maduro's regime with obvious strong links with the military (a dictatorship in practical terms). This has not done any favour to Venezuela - from a rich country that had a fabulous living standard thanks to the oil industry, to something like a meme country that is mentioned to signify lack o governance (hint for those who are into populism and "saviours").

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/guyana-will-stay-alert-after-venezuela-vote-territorial-dispute-vp-2023-12-04/

This war would be about... guess what... yes oil. Some sources say that the war has been officially declared and it could actually go beyond the declaration and into a real war.  Brazil is likely to support Guyana, but it may just not be enough. We shall see.


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December 07, 2023, 11:42:50 PM
 #2

Paging Hispo... we need an insider to tell us what's going on.

Sounds like some insane populist delusion but what do I know...
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December 08, 2023, 12:05:20 AM
Merited by suchmoon (9)
 #3

Paging Hispo... we need an insider to tell us what's going on.

Sounds like some insane populist delusion but what do I know...

Heh, quite silly how a post in a forum can be turned into a notification on my phone which can prompt me to open my laptop in order to reply.
Anyways, I will let you know what it is going on so far within my knowledge...

Our government has used the excuse of the sovereign over the Esequibo in order to awake some patriotic sentient on people to boost their positive perception among the population, they have done it before and it was all a circus, a distraction, politicians going around the continent trying to lobby in favor of our interest over that land, it always happens right before the government needs votes.

Some days ago they tried to go for a referendum when people was supposed to vote in order to try to legitimate the fight, and also it is assumed it was a political tactic for them to "scan" or research how many votes they still have for the incoming presidential elections next year. The referendum was a failure... the population did not participate in any meaningful numbers, so they had to make them up.
I can tell you by my own experience all people working in public positions (working for the companies of the government, electric national company, phone national company, agencies of migration, etc) all of them were forced to vote in that referendum, if not, they would not receive benefits or they could be blacklisted and kicked out (in the case of those in low positions). Teachers because they are antagonists against the government they decided not to participate, the relation between education and the government here has always been bad.

Because the failure of the theater and the fact they had to falsify the results, now they are panicking and they are actually alleging those within the Opposition (who are part of the team of the candidate who has the big chance to defeat the president next year) were paid by Exxon Mobile and tried to sabotage the referendum in the favor of the company and Guyana. They are already trying to find and arrest them and charge them with "Traición a la patria" /Treason to Motherland.

Now comes a lil bit of privileged information, because of the nature of my job (I wont give details) I can confirm the government is gathering information about infrastructure in the claimed zone, specifically power generation. I don't know the purpose.


The theory which is being passing around is they either trying to create an environment to justify not to have elections/imprison their political foes by the next year or actually escalate the conflict and annex the territory without thinking about the consequences. Burning the house if they can't own it.

Any questions I am willing to answer as long as they are reasonable.

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December 08, 2023, 12:34:36 AM
 #4

Our government has used the excuse of the sovereign over the Esequibo in order to awake some patriotic sentient on people to boost their positive perception among the population, they have done it before and it was all a circus, a distraction, politicians going around the continent trying to lobby in favor of our interest over that land, it always happens right before the government needs votes.

I have obviously never heard of Esequibo before, but how important is it for ordinary Venezuelans? What do your history textbooks say about it? What do the maps show? Do most people actually consider it part of Venezuela that was unfairly taken away, or is it more like "meh, bygones be bygones". More like Falklands or more like... I don't know... Koenigsberg... no, that's too recent, maybe like Alsace–Lorraine?

Does Venezuela even need more oil? I thought it already has enough to make it super rich, if the government was a bit more... uhm... normal.
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December 08, 2023, 01:01:08 AM
Merited by paxmao (5), suchmoon (1)
 #5

Our government has used the excuse of the sovereign over the Esequibo in order to awake some patriotic sentient on people to boost their positive perception among the population, they have done it before and it was all a circus, a distraction, politicians going around the continent trying to lobby in favor of our interest over that land, it always happens right before the government needs votes.

I have obviously never heard of Esequibo before, but how important is it for ordinary Venezuelans? What do your history textbooks say about it? What do the maps show? Do most people actually consider it part of Venezuela that was unfairly taken away, or is it more like "meh, bygones be bygones". More like Falklands or more like... I don't know... Koenigsberg... no, that's too recent, maybe like Alsace–Lorraine?

Does Venezuela even need more oil? I thought it already has enough to make it super rich, if the government was a bit more... uhm... normal.

The ordinary Venezuelan is aware of the status of that territory but only the educated knows the history being the English appropriation of those lands, the average common Venezuelan is more concerned about working, earning money and get by to put food on the table, we can be hard working people in general. In order for many of us to retain what is left of our mental health, we have decided to embrace political nihilism/become numb towards politics and just try to work or move to other countries, that is one of the biggest reasons there are so many Venezuelans moving to USA lately, because of the things we have witnessed here people just want to go and live a semi decent life elsewhere.

Because of this detachment from polítics, those more enthusiastic with a take over of that territory are mostly involved with the ruling party, we have just become so numb we can't react normally as a population. If tomorrow we lost that territory we would be screwed as today, and even if tomorrow Guyana gives up and gives us that territory, we would be still screwed as today. If we did not have literal criminals in charge of this country we would be more positive on the posibilites of exploiting new land, but it is not the case.

I will give you a sample of the thing of stuff we experience and continue to experience which have made us apathetic:
One of the president's politicians who was at the time in charge of the oil industry, was caught in a scandal, he seems to have stolen up to 30 billion $ from the oil state company (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/middlemen-have-left-venezuelas-pdvsa-with-212-billion-unpaid-bills-2023-03-21/).

Consequences ? He resigned and he is nowhere to be seen after some pictures of women of those involved playing Jenga with literal Gold bars got leaked, not even mentioning the boobs transplants and the Hummer cars, shinning clean. No procecution, no trial, nothing to him. Just Poof. Gone.

All of it while pregnant women have to give birth on the floor of hospitals and cancer patients die in Public hospitals. I have seen people bad mouthing the Healthcare system in USA, about how expensive it is to cover one's health. But here it is different, at least there you get attention. Here you can show up in an hospital with a gunshot wound and if you do not have cash or insurance you are asked to sit down and wait. I myself lost a cousin to cancer, he needed constant blood transfusions to stay alive, until people in the public hospital just got fed up and told him and his close relatives to go die at his home and stop bothering them. That is the level of evil we dealt with. Private hospitals while give you a estimate of the expenses even before allowing to get a dying person in a room, pay or go away.  
Also, we have the lowest min wage on this hemisphere and maybe of the planet.

Would you care about developing/claiming land in this context...?
... Heh, I did not expect to remember dead relatives today. Tbh.

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December 08, 2023, 07:43:45 AM
 #6

If the whole population is armed, noone would attack. With a unarmed population is just a walk in vor any rough element.
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December 09, 2023, 02:04:44 AM
 #7

If the whole population is armed, noone would attack. With a unarmed population is just a walk in vor any rough element.

Mind you. Here in South America we do not have a gun culture like in the United States, so it is rather difficult to us to imagine a society where anyone can have access to guns, specially when the poor law system and law enforcement officials we have here. If anyone here was able to just walk in a store and buy a gun I am not sure whether I would dare to step out my house on weekends, regardless of the hour of the day.
Before allowing citizens to have the right to bear arms, it is important to guarantee a healthy criminal system.
There are already places in this country where criminals can murder almost with no consequence, because of their illegal businesses, before giving guns away one needs to deal with the gangs, otherwise one would only increase the frequency of shootings in the middle of the streets.

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