So new patterns for BTC fees what do they mean. Does the ½ ing lose its power?

[philipma1957]

last six months very high fees.

[1715520605]

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[philipma1957]

Last 6 years. note 2023  worst fee year ever

[philipma1957]

So we all  know fees go up rewards go down..


50
25
12.5
  6.25                now  and fees for this year have been very close to 0.70
  3.125              2024
  1.5625            2028
  0.78125          2032
  0.390625        2036


if fees are forced higher via artificial means  to 0.7 for next decade.  the ½ ing effect leaves.

 as shown below


6.950
3.875
2.2635
1.48125
1.090625



Ideas and thoughts if all is left to free market what happens for next 4-8-12 years?

[mk4]

What do you mean by "fees are forced higher via artificial means"? High fees are just a result of high demand. And it's just the case that transaction demand increases in bull markets (and due to Ordinals recently).

if fees are forced higher via artificial means  to 0.7 for next decade.  the ½ ing effect leaves.

 as shown below


6.950
3.875
2.2635
1.48125
1.090625

I don't get this part either (I'm an idiot most of the time). mind expounding?

[philipma1957]

What do you mean by "fees are forced higher via artificial means"? High fees are just a result of high demand. And it's just the case that transaction demand increases in bull markets (and due to Ordinals recently).

if fees are forced higher via artificial means  to 0.7 for next decade.  the ½ ing effect leaves.

 as shown below


6.950
3.875
2.2635
1.48125
1.090625

I don't get this part either (I'm an idiot most of the time). mind expounding?

1) ordinals drive fees up.

2) sending 0.00001 btc with a fee of 5 sats per byte clogs the mempool

3) shutting off gear slows the network.

to do number 2  or 3 from the above you have to be a huge pool

The idea is to raise fees above 1 btc if you are foundry pool and you make 48 blocks a day.

surrendering 3 blocks by  downclocking gear is a loss of 18.75 coins.

but you save on power
and you can raise fees by less blocks for the network

and be feeding in txs of 0.00001 with fees of 0.00000830


that send is 0.00001830

100,000 sends like that costs only 1.830 coins and clogs the pool.

plus they never clear they stay for 2 weeks and purge out. cost is zero.

those numbers are

blocks plus fees pf 0.7

6.950 in 2023
3.825 in 2024
2.26.  in 2028
1.48.  in 2032
1.09.  in 2036



those are nothing like the former ½ ings

50.05 in 2011
25.10 in 2012
12.60 in 2016
 6.95  in 2020

they are ½ the coins as the reward to fee is very different then what is starting to happen with this ½ ing.

 is about

6.95

[franky1]

the network didnt break when spot market was $17k meaning the network was getting 6.25btc @ $106,250 per block
when spot market was $34k meaning the network was getting 6.25btc @ $212,500 per block the network did not need fee's because the block reward has not even halved. instead miners got more income without any effort. thanks to the spot market

the spot market will react again after the halving. we will see a ATH.

fee's vs reward are not correlative to a miners NEED for income. not until there are a few more halving events..
.. until then the market will incentivise

in a few more halving cycles the market wont multiply as much. and it will be THEN and ONLY THEN that fee's become a need
.. until then the market will incentivise

[Husires]

The continued rise in fees acts like a brake, braking the ATH pyramid and making the price rise quickly and fall even faster (forming a false ATH).  if the fees are currently high, the price still holds at good levels, which encourages investors to buy more mining tools and for miniers to start to avoid selling.



the fees are starting to decrease and may decrease by ½ ing, so at their highest levels, the fees may equal to block reward 6.950 BTC as total bitcoins make the new dump at 35.9K and multiply 3-4 for ATH so ATH will be 107K - 143.6K

[buwaytress]

My regular Joe opinion? Halving won't lose its influence for at least two, three cycles. I still think anything above 1 coin makes a psychological impact -- a bit less once you take price into account.

It has had a waning influence though, I'd say. Just looking at the peaks/throughs in between each cycle. I'm keen to understand how these fees situation looks post-bullrun when ordinals surely run out of steam. I'd predict a positive backlash from peeps returning on-chain.

[hatshepsut93]

Fees don't drive the price, it's the price movements that drives the fees up. When the price rapidly changes, there are lots of arbitrage opportunities because the price might differ a lot between exchanges, and bots/traders capitalize on that. Also those who store coins in self-custody are making on-chain transactions when they trade, and they are ready to pay high fees for that. If a trader moves five or six figures worth of coins, $5 or $20 fee is nothing.

[philipma1957]

Fees don't drive the price, it's the price movements that drives the fees up. When the price rapidly changes, there are lots of arbitrage opportunities because the price might differ a lot between exchanges, and bots/traders capitalize on that. Also those who store coins in self-custody are making on-chain transactions when they trade, and they are ready to pay high fees for that. If a trader moves five or six figures worth of coins, $5 or $20 fee is nothing.

You are right any 10,000 plus value sale does not give a fuck about a 20 or 30 dollar fee.

But I see BTC =  1,000 Plus and small shit moving to

 LTC, DOGE = under 1,000.

The ½ ing boost is waning with reward to fee ratios waning .

I also see those numbers not looking like a ½ ing in 2028 and 2032 and 2036 and on and on.

[Fundamentals Of]

Whatever happens, however grim we may foresee the future, I guess the best way is still to let the free market decide. For now, miners aren't fee-dependent. So it probably doesn't bother them a lot if the fees rise and fall. Although they must be happy with the current rates. I guess this will continue to be like this for the next 3 halvings, including the one in April next year. However the halving in 2032, in which the reward would only be as low as 0.78125, would probably be a vital point. Unless the price is appropriately high, many might decide to leave the industry. Regardless, is using "artificial means" to force fees higher fair and acceptable?

[philipma1957]

Whatever happens, however grim we may foresee the future, I guess the best way is still to let the free market decide. For now, miners aren't fee-dependent. So it probably doesn't bother them a lot if the fees rise and fall. Although they must be happy with the current rates. I guess this will continue to be like this for the next 3 halvings, including the one in April next year. However the halving in 2032, in which the reward would only be as low as 0.78125, would probably be a vital point. Unless the price is appropriately high, many might decide to leave the industry. Regardless, is using "artificial means" to force fees higher fair and acceptable?

Well I know the mining industry but on a smaller scale than a 100,000 unit farm pulling 300,000 kwatts.

Or 300 megawatts.

my share of the btc network is 6/450,000

the 300 megawatt player has 6,000/450,000 share of the market.

If the 300 megawatt player could down clock all his s19 xps to 120 th vs 141 th  spending way less power.

Hitting less blocks but raising fees thus earning more profit.

It would be fair to my investors and stockholders.

It looks doable , but not  this ½ ing  maybe 2028 or 2032.

[Greyhats]

Hi Phil,

I think there is something in what your saying but understanding is that Btc fees are designed in this way, but maybe in that design it was aimed more at those blocks in much later halving in like 12-50 years to ensure value is there for the miners, rather than the current and very soon halvings.

Within my own research the fees are dust when it’s a big transaction but small ones are significant %. The current design is like forcing me to convert Btc to fiat say like $1000(one transaction )vs spending 100$ btc x 10 times(10 transactions) the smaller you go the more ridiculous the fees are but just here as an example only

If anyone has reading materials on the 10 vs 1 transaction fees and how to not have to convert back to fiat but not lose so much in fees pls tell me.

As to fees offsetting halving impact, my question would be back to the miner community when they are calcing out  Btc rev is this extra value included in your cost per Btc mined. I do hold some inference that Btc bottoms are linked somewhat to the cost to mine coin.

[philipma1957]

Hi Phil,

I think there is something in what your saying but understanding is that Btc fees are designed in this way, but maybe in that design it was aimed more at those blocks in much later halving in like 12-50 years to ensure value is there for the miners, rather than the current and very soon halvings.

Within my own research the fees are dust when it’s a big transaction but small ones are significant %. The current design is like forcing me to convert Btc to fiat say like $1000(one transaction )vs spending 100$ btc x 10 times(10 transactions) the smaller you go the more ridiculous the fees are but just here as an example only

If anyone has reading materials on the 10 vs 1 transaction fees and how to not have to convert back to fiat but not lose so much in fees pls tell me.

As to fees offsetting halving impact, my question would be back to the miner community when they are calcing out  Btc rev is this extra value included in your cost per Btc mined. I do hold some inference that Btc bottoms are linked somewhat to the cost to mine coin.

the floor number is supported by mining ⛏️

the ceiling is supported by speculation.


when i look at the fee levels for 2023 they have been over 0.5 btc a lot maybe half the time.

My 300k watt mine can downclock from 6ph to 4ph in minutes.

Saves a ton of power and keeps my heat issues in control.

big farms can do the same.

foundry the largest pool makes 48 blocks in a day.

the diff jump is 14 days.

so they look at the mempool on first day of the jump. see it is kind of crowded.

they down clock from 48 blocks to 40 blocks saves power and right now lose 6.25 size blocks add fees say .70 the lose is 8 x 7 = 56 coins.

and the power saved is maybe 20 coins losing 36 coins

but fees shift to 1.75 coins makes blocks 8 coins not 7.  adds 40 coins to their haul about 4 coins now.


but after the ½ ing  the number look way better for this type of attack.

lose 8 four coin block loss is 32 coins

gain 20 coins in power. net loss of 12 coins

but make 40 blocks with an extra 1 btc in rewards means 40-12 = 28 coin gain.


do not do it a lot first and second day of a 14 day jump. than go back to normal

28  + 28 = 56 coin gain every two weeks.

this is just a 33% company.

it is a fee attack via difficulty manipulation and it makes money.

Not at all like a 51% attack which loses money.

[el kaka22]

Ordinals are definitely one of the biggest reasons, the other years didn't have ordinals and this year has them, plus we are getting to a higher price, remember we were 15k just only couple months ago, inside the same year I think? Were we ever 15k in 2023? Not sure but it was somewhere a year ago, and now we have tripled that in price at our peak, and that means fee would go up, combine that with ordinals and suddenly you have yourself a great explanation why the fees are much higher these days.

I get that it may not be all that simple, and I get that you may not enjoy that but that's just how it is and we should see it, that's the most important part right now and could be considered a bit of a trouble on the long run.

[philipma1957]

Ordinals are definitely one of the biggest reasons, the other years didn't have ordinals and this year has them, plus we are getting to a higher price, remember we were 15k just only couple months ago, inside the same year I think? Were we ever 15k in 2023? Not sure but it was somewhere a year ago, and now we have tripled that in price at our peak, and that means fee would go up, combine that with ordinals and suddenly you have yourself a great explanation why the fees are much higher these days.

I get that it may not be all that simple, and I get that you may not enjoy that but that's just how it is and we should see it, that's the most important part right now and could be considered a bit of a trouble on the long run.

well this will be the first ½ ing that we drop 40% rather than 50%

It is truly a different dynamic.

the 2028 ½ the drop will be 30-35% rather than 50%.

It should have an effect.

[EarnOnVictor]

Whatever happens, however grim we may foresee the future, I guess the best way is still to let the free market decide. For now, miners aren't fee-dependent. So it probably doesn't bother them a lot if the fees rise and fall. Although they must be happy with the current rates. I guess this will continue to be like this for the next 3 halvings, including the one in April next year. However the halving in 2032, in which the reward would only be as low as 0.78125, would probably be a vital point. Unless the price is appropriately high, many might decide to leave the industry. Regardless, is using "artificial means" to force fees higher fair and acceptable?

You suggested that everyone should still continue to look on even as damaging as things are now. Even the fees demand and supply you envisaged have already been hijacked the way I see it and this has nothing to do with halving but greed and selfish interests. As much as I love Bitcoin and what Satoshi planned and proposed, it's not perfect, we can see it evidently with the insane fee we witness these days. This year alone, Bitcoin users have paid insane fees many times, to the point that it has been discouraging people from dealing with the coin thereby finding alternatives.

Should we continue to look on and let it continue this way? It might affect the coin in the future, we should stop thinking that because it's the number one it can ever remain like that if there is a lot that discourages businesses around it. I believe that something should be done about this, a thing that would discourage spamming and encourage/compel the miners to accept transactions that are of a certain size/age, something to make them accountable. Leaving everything to work anyhow is what led us to this mess and it's insane and annoying to see transactions this morning at about $25 just because I want to deal with Bitcoin. That is discouraging, a decisive solution is needed at this time.

[philipma1957]

Whatever happens, however grim we may foresee the future, I guess the best way is still to let the free market decide. For now, miners aren't fee-dependent. So it probably doesn't bother them a lot if the fees rise and fall. Although they must be happy with the current rates. I guess this will continue to be like this for the next 3 halvings, including the one in April next year. However the halving in 2032, in which the reward would only be as low as 0.78125, would probably be a vital point. Unless the price is appropriately high, many might decide to leave the industry. Regardless, is using "artificial means" to force fees higher fair and acceptable?

You suggested that everyone should still continue to look on even as damaging as things are now. Even the fees demand and supply you envisaged have already been hijacked the way I see it and this has nothing to do with halving but greed and selfish interests. As much as I love Bitcoin and what Satoshi planned and proposed, it's not perfect, we can see it evidently with the insane fee we witness these days. This year alone, Bitcoin users have paid insane fees many times, to the point that it has been discouraging people from dealing with the coin thereby finding alternatives.

Should we continue to look on and let it continue this way? It might affect the coin in the future, we should stop thinking that because it's the number one it can ever remain like that if there is a lot that discourages businesses around it. I believe that something should be done about this, a thing that would discourage spamming and encourage/compel the miners to accept transactions that are of a certain size/age, something to make them accountable. Leaving everything to work anyhow is what led us to this mess and it's insane and annoying to see transactions this morning at about $25 just because I want to deal with Bitcoin. That is discouraging, a decisive solution is needed at this time.

Yeah it is slowing but likely due to holiday weekend.  It may pick up again on tuesday.