Why does the halving increase the price?

[WeThePe0ple]

A few random beginner questions:

- There have been 3 halvings, and in all of them the BTC price was insignificant compared to what it is today. Am I the only one who thinks that it is premature to speak of a pattern when something only happened 3 times before, and in completely different price ranges? Buying 1 BTC was realistic for many people before the first 3 halvings. Now that is no longer the case.

- Why would people invest loads of money in BTC after the halving and not before?

- What is a good price range for an air gapped wallet, for someone who only manages 0.3 BTC?
I take security very seriously. I'm in doubt between coldcard and Ngrave. Both are not very cheap. Ngrave will be over 500 bucks, which I think is a lot for someone who only manages a 13k portfolio. On the other hand, the value may increase and I want to take 0 risks losing my portfolio

[_act_]

Investing after halving massively is something that is becoming norm and no special reason. But I think what makes people to start it is because after halving, the mining reward decrease by half which makes the supplying of bitcoin into the market to reduce, making it deflationary and valuables.

[WeThePe0ple]

Investing after halving massively is something that is becoming norm and no special reason. But I think what makes people to start it is because after halving, the mining reward decrease by half which makes the supplying of bitcoin into the market to reduce, making it deflationary and valuables.

Well at the first time of the halving there was no precedent, no anticipation. Neither was this the case during the second halving.
BTC investors could only vaguely see a pattern when the 3rd cycle arrived.

Meanwhile the whole world is anticipating on the 4th cycle. The attention was never so big in previous cycles because the price was not as significant as it is today. Everyone expects the price to go up loads after the halving. But why? It makes sense that everyone who ever heard about BTC, buys before the halving and not after.

We're also at a stage now where buying 1 BTC is not an option for 99.9% of society. People would have to buy per 0.1 BTC.
I think that the price of BTC went 10x on all previous occasions because individual investors wanted BTC, and were able to afford it. I think that the price can only explode from here if large institutions pump big money into BTC.

[JeromeTash]

- Why would people invest loads of money in BTC after the halving and not before?

The smart ones buy when it's still the bear market, like when BTC was at $15K. The newbies and FOMO brigade will jump in later when Bitcoin crosses the previous all-time high and starts appearing more on main stream media. That's what I observed in the last 2 bull runs

- What is a good price range for an air gapped wallet, for someone who only manages 0.3 BTC?

You could create your own airgapped wallet using a clean device that never accesses the internet.

[WeThePe0ple]

- Why would people invest loads of money in BTC after the halving and not before?

The smart ones buy when it's still the bear market, like when BTC was at $15K. The newbies and FOMO brigade will jump in later when Bitcoin crosses the previous all-time high and starts appearing more on main stream media. That's what I observed in the last 2 bull runs

At 15k I kept hearing we would get to 10k this year.
It seems to me that creating fomo by constantly advertising that the price will skyrocket after the supposed ETF approval, is big business.
It's just very hard for me to believe that anybody with serious interest in BTC would get involved after the halving.

The only thing I see that can really bump up the price, is large institutional money. Individuals keep telling me that it is too late to get into BTC because the price has already gone too high.

[Zaguru12]

- There have been 3 halvings, and in all of them the BTC price was insignificant compared to what it is today. Am I the only one who thinks that it is premature to speak of a pattern when something only happened 3 times before, and in completely different price ranges? Buying 1 BTC was realistic for many people before the first 3 halvings. Now that is no longer the case.

When a thing happen once it is called luck but the third time isn’t luck. The reason why you see an increase in bitcoin price after halving is because the amount to be mined reduces and as such the supply becomes limited. When the supply of a product decreases and the demand is high it increases the price according to law of demand and supply

- Why would people invest loads of money in BTC after the halving and not before?

People actually invest more into bitcoin before halving because after halving that is actually when the price is low because after halving there is bull run.

- What is a good price range for an air gapped wallet, for someone who only manages 0.3 BTC?
I take security very seriously. I'm in doubt between coldcard and Ngrave. Both are not very cheap. Ngrave will be over 500 bucks, which I think is a lot for someone who only manages a 13k portfolio. On the other hand, the value may increase and I want to take 0 risks losing my portfolio

There is not amount that is too small to be secured, although hardware wallets is a bit expensive I will say for that amount of bitcoin it is affordable for you to buy. There are good hardware wallets still within the price of $100-$200. This ember months are mostly filled with black market sales, you actually get one at a reduce amount

[tvplus006]

...Am I the only one who thinks that it is premature to speak of a pattern when something only happened 3 times before, and in completely different price ranges?...

It is only when an event repeats 2 times that we say it is an accident, but if any event repeats 3 times, then we can say that this is a pattern. And if after each of the three past halving, the supply of new coins was halved and at the same time the price increased, then we can assume that after halving in 2024 we will see similar consequences.

[BitMaxz]

A few random beginner questions:

-  Am I the only one who thinks that it is premature to speak of a pattern when something only happened 3 times before, and in completely different price ranges?

If you know the historical price of Bitcoin you should notice the price ranges are different every block halving because like others said the block reward for miners drops into half every 4 years.

- Why would people invest loads of money in BTC after the halving and not before?

Actually, for me that's not a good idea to invest in Bitcoin after block halving you should buy Bitcoins before block halving because if not you might be late if the price increases much before and after block halving.

- What is a good price range for an air gapped wallet, for someone who only manages 0.3 BTC?

I don't think you still need to buy an Airgap or hardware wallet if you already have an old PC and phone it should be enough. You can make your old PC as offline cold storage and only use it to store your private keys and sign a transaction and never connect it to the internet and install your watch-only wallet into your phone where you can monitor your wallet and make unsign transactions.

[hatshepsut93]

- Why would people invest loads of money in BTC after the halving and not before?

Bitcoin price is purely determined by a combination supply and demand, and no one really understands them. Is the price growing because supply is decreasing or because demand is rising? We can't answer even such simple question, because we don't have the strong data.

One of my theories is that these cycles are a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. People look at the past pattern, assume that it will repeat and act accordingly. If the price rises before the halvening, speculators think it's a premature rally and dump their coins, causing a correction.

[PrivacyG]

Airgapped Wallet can be any old device like an old laptop or PC you own at home.  I tested Airgapped Wallets on some sub 30 dollar PCs and they work decent enough to be usable still.

It is currently considered a 'pattern' because it repeated three times already.  It will be considered more of a pattern the more times it will repeat itself.  Trading Analysis has patterns too but it does not mean there are exceptions however.

Why do you think people 'put more money' for its price to have an increase?  The only 'more money' they pour into Bitcoin is the money of silly people who buy Bitcoin on the Bull Run hoping they did not miss the train and will make a ton of money.  They always end up being the losers.

Bitcoins price increases due to the halving.  It becomes twice as hard to mine so in consequence in my logic it should be at least twice as pricey.  There can always be exceptions again too.  Anyway.  This is just the price we all agree on paying for a Bitcoin.  If there was not enough demand there would be a smaller price for sure.

[Text]

You're right, three data points aren't a large enough sample to definitively claim a pattern but remember that the halving happens every 4 years, so I think you can take that into consideration. It reduces the rate of new coins entering circulation potentially leading to price increase. Some investors may prefer to wait for confirmation of the impact before committing. Others might see the potential for higher returns after the event. Individual investors are the key players before and now it’s the institutional adoption for the major price appreciation.

[hd49728]

- There have been 3 halvings, and in all of them the BTC price was insignificant compared to what it is today. Am I the only one who thinks that it is premature to speak of a pattern when something only happened 3 times before, and in completely different price ranges? Buying 1 BTC was realistic for many people before the first 3 halvings. Now that is no longer the case.

It was easier to buy 1 BTC in past years, past 3 halvings, but it was harder to hold those bitcoins years ago. Because bitcoin was not too valuable years ago and people were less seriously about holding their bitcoins.

Now, you have more difficulty to accumulate 1 BTC but you will have more reasons to hold your bitcoins.

On chain stats shows that more holders have been accumulating bitcoin in last few years.
Greater than 0.1 BTC https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/addresses-greater-than-0-1-btc/
Greater than 1 BTC https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/addresses-greater-than-1-btc/

- What is a good price range for an air gapped wallet, for someone who only manages 0.3 BTC?

You even can have an air gapped wallet, free. You can use Bitcoin Core, Electrum wallet softwares and create it offline on an air gapped device. Then you will have an air gapped wallet.

[Guide] Secure air-gapped crypto wallet storage method

[sunsilk]

Buying 1 BTC was realistic for many people before the first 3 halvings. Now that is no longer the case.

It's still realistic and the same questions will rise again when we're gone far and the prices are too much already.

- Why would people invest loads of money in BTC after the halving and not before?

That is because they like more confirmation that the price have already increased than to wait patiently before it goes up. We're humans and only a few believes on what we're telling to buy now and wait until the price goes up, that's their approach and strategy that's so wrong but we can't blame them.

- What is a good price range for an air gapped wallet, for someone who only manages 0.3 BTC?
I take security very seriously. I'm in doubt between coldcard and Ngrave. Both are not very cheap. Ngrave will be over 500 bucks, which I think is a lot for someone who only manages a 13k portfolio. On the other hand, the value may increase and I want to take 0 risks losing my portfolio

An old desktop or laptop if you have will be enough. The important thing is to download the official wallet of Electrum from its official website because too many clones and fake out there.

[_act_]

People actually invest more into bitcoin before halving because after halving that is actually when the price is low because after halving there is bull run.

People invest massive and more after bull run. If people are not investing after bull run, the price of bitcoin will not increase. The bulls means that their are more people that are buying.

An old desktop or laptop if you have will be enough. The important thing is to download the official wallet of Electrum from its official website because too many clones and fake out there.

Yes an old computer is good in a way that you will remove the wifi and bluetooth modules. Sparrow can also be used, it is a good bitcoin wallet.

[WeThePe0ple]

Actually, for me that's not a good idea to invest in Bitcoin after block halving you should buy Bitcoins before block halving because if not you might be late if the price increases much before and after block halving.

I know that. But if the price keeps increasing after the halving it must be because many people are buying after the halving, or not?
It's hard for me to expect a strong price increase after the 2024 halving, while everybody knows they should be buying long before the halving.
The only argument I still see for strong price increase, is ETF approval leading to BTC being recognized as an official means of payment.

[WeThePe0ple]

Buying 1 BTC was realistic for many people before the first 3 halvings. Now that is no longer the case.

It's still realistic and the same questions will rise again when we're gone far and the prices are too much already.

How many people have $40 000 they can miss? I'd say 0.01%

I personally had about 70k in savings and spent 13k on 0.3 BTC. I was interested the whole year, but I was chasing the 10k low that we never hit.
I'm in doubt, whether I should buy 0.2 more or there will be a better opportunity.

[GbitG]

Buying 1 BTC was realistic for many people before the first 3 halvings. Now that is no longer the case.

 
No one knows the future, and at that time, BTC was not as famous as now. Forget about the past, think about the future. BTC is still a valuable band; maybe someone will say in the future that 0.3 BTC is realistic in 2023.
 

Why would people invest loads of money in BTC after the halving and not before? 

 
The answer is so simple. People choose to invest in the BTC market post-halving due to a reduction in its supply, which will increase demand, and you know that when supply becomes low and people demand anything high, it increases price pressure. Such types of events are a strategy in which investors look to invest based on historical performance.

[Smartvirus]

A few random beginner questions:

- There have been 3 halvings, and in all of them the BTC price was insignificant compared to what it is today. Am I the only one who thinks that it is premature to speak of a pattern when something only happened 3 times before, and in completely different price ranges? Buying 1 BTC was realistic for many people before the first 3 halvings. Now that is no longer the case.

- Why would people invest loads of money in BTC after the halving and not before?

You’re not out of place to have made these observations and that it happens plus, we today see it for a pattern and bank on that to be the case through every other occurrence.

Well, we could blame this on the psychology of human behavior. Most times, it’s about what we already know, coming to push us towards same repetition over again due to an already established expectation thereby, creating the event (Bulls/Bears).

The halving is already a certainty, something that is independent of efforts but what comes after is based on our response to it.
The halving creates an idea of scarcity due to the reduction of block reward to miners. This in turn reduces the introduction of new Bitcoins into the market, mounts pressure on available Bitcoins in circulation, creates reasons why there should be more hodlers and as well, goes about to advertise for more patronage. It’s become a significant event in the history of cryptocurrency, field with expectation and people now bank on this for high returns.

[Zaguru12]

It's hard for me to expect a strong price increase after the 2024 halving, while everybody knows they should be buying long before the halving.

The 2024 halving wouldn’t instantly affect a price after it, but a close to a year after it there would be an increase in price of bitcoin. This has been the trend in the past three halving and I don’t see that changing even though the past bull run increases the price with high percentage, l think this one will not be too high since the volatility rate seems to be reducing. It is not only ETF approval that will incite a bull run Infact the ETF approval will just be like a FOMO causing a mini bull run and nothing much.

The only argument I still see for strong price increase, is ETF approval leading to BTC being recognized as an official means of payment.

Been recognized as an official means of payment means that bitcoin is treated as legal tender, which is wrong. ETF approval doesn’t guarantee that bitcoin will officially become a legal tender, both are two different things. ETF will just drive more adoption although to me it will give government more power towards their quest to censor or centralize the bitcoin.

[ZAINmalik75]

- There have been 3 halvings, and in all of them the BTC price was insignificant compared to what it is today. Am I the only one who thinks that it is premature to speak of a pattern when something only happened 3 times before, and in completely different price ranges? Buying 1 BTC was realistic for many people before the first 3 halvings. Now that is no longer the case.

I will not call it premature but a good thought because many of us who are not into crypto or are just starting there journey had this same thought that should we accept the old patterns as an indicator for future predictions as you said 3 times might not be enough and to be honest I also had the same thoughts when I was newbie but the number of halving was not 3 at that time.

And buying 1 btc back in time was easier than now.

- Why would people invest loads of money in BTC after the halving and not before?

Smart people invest before having and less smart people invest after halving and not smart people don't invest in BTC at all.