Bitcoin mining’s comeback in China

[safar1980]

Bitcoin mining’s silent comeback in China, according to industry insider
CryptoSlate’s research analyst, James Van Straten, recently sat down with Bitfarms’ Chief Mining Officer, Ben Gagnon, to discuss the evolving landscape of Bitcoin mining, revealing some interesting thoughts on Bitcoin mining in China, along with detailed insights into global miner revenues.

Gagnon, who spent time operating crypto-mining facilities in China, shared his unique perspective on the country’s mining ban and the recent expansion of Bitcoin mining in the nation. Contrary to attributing the ban to environmental or economic reasons, Gagnon suggested the decision was politically motivated.

“When the China mining ban happened in 2021, I really don’t think it had anything to do with Bitcoin itself. I think it was entirely internal politics.”

Gagnon noted that mining is slowly returning to China as a way to recycle waste inputs, notably heat, for residential and office projects. This approach allows for reintroducing mining in China as a net social benefit, balancing business and political interests.

“And I think we’re gonna see a lot more of that. It’s a way for China to bring back mining indirectly and improve the cost efficiency of infrastructure and residential developments.”

While Bitcoin mining might seem insignificant regarding China’s overall GDP, Gagnon observed that it holds significant potential at the individual business level. Entrepreneurs might see it as an opportunity to improve business efficiency, recycle resources, and diversify revenue streams. This is particularly relevant in China’s real estate sector, which has faced challenges but remains a significant part of the economy.

[alani123]

It was interesting to see the latest difficulty adjustment lead to a decrease in difficulty.

Following many adjustments that lead a meteoric rise even while prices weren't close to record hghs it was weird to see that. Perhaps there's a tippping point somewhere around here, so if BTC prices also stagnate who knows.

I think if anyone is actually making a comeback though it's probably American miners. See foundry being the largest pool,.and many more are seeking to enter the mining biz. Bankrupt Celsius seeks to list a newco for mining for instance.

[paid2]

“When the China mining ban happened in 2021, I really don’t think it had anything to do with Bitcoin itself. I think it was entirely internal politics.”

Lol

Btw, it would be interesting to see how the total networkhashrate would react to the return of China in force: I imagine that the difficulty would be astronomical, and thus many would have to relocate (again)... I guess China won't be bringing low hashrate if it gets back into the mining game

[joniboini]

Gagnon noted that mining is slowly returning to China as a way to recycle waste inputs, notably heat, for residential and office projects. This approach allows for reintroducing mining in China as a net social benefit, balancing business and political interests.

How can a company/business/social project do that if the ban is still effective? Is he saying that people are doing it illegally, or does the law never affect them, to begin with? I do know that underground mining is still going strong over there, based on some news that I read. I'm not sure what residential and office projects mean here, but it is hard to imagine that the government does not even bother to check their daily activities at all. It sounds cool if they found a way to mask the mining process with something else though.

[Yamane_Keto]

I find that these articles are more to attract clicks than to be something real. There is still a ban in China and without a legal regulation, so all speculation is of no use. Regardless of the reason for China’s ban on mining, Bitcoin mining on farms needs legal approval because of the ease of discovering these farms, and individual mining need space and risk, especially since I believe that the laws in China are strictly implemented.

[TheUltraElite]

.. especially since I believe that the laws in China are strictly implemented.

Which is what I have been thinking since the day this thread was first posted. China is well known for its laws and habit of controlling everything that its citizens do. Hence if mining is illegal people would not dare to run it underground. However I am not aware of insider details, I would assume that the people there would be terrified of resuming mining even after a ban is running and think twice before re-starting if the ban if lifted.

Such a news article will make no sense until the ban is actually lifted.

[safar1980]

I find that these articles are more to attract clicks than to be something real. There is still a ban in China and without a legal regulation, so all speculation is of no use. Regardless of the reason for China’s ban on mining, Bitcoin mining on farms needs legal approval because of the ease of discovering these farms, and individual mining need space and risk, especially since I believe that the laws in China are strictly implemented.

"Analysts from the research institute Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality found that 91% of officials convicted of corruption within 10 years after Xi Jinping took office as Chairman of the People's Republic of China (2013) were among the 1%. richest people in China. If it were not for the income received by officials in the form of bribes, only 6% of them would be among the wealthiest Chinese."
https://www.mn.ru/smart/za-2-pyatiletki-v-kitae-otpravili-pod-sud-37-mln-vzyatochnikov-kak-ustroena-zverinaya-ierarhiya-korrupczionerov
https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/b3jze/download
Bribery in China still makes it possible to bypass all legal prohibitions on mining.

[joniboini]

Bribery in China still makes it possible to bypass all legal prohibitions on mining.

So you're saying all those underground miners, including those reported above are bribing officials then? I don't know, sounds like not what small miners would do. I find it difficult to believe it is cost-effective for residential miners, or whatever groups are doing the mining activity over there. Is there any data that shows the cost and how much bribe is required to make it possible to mine 'legally'? Wouldn't it make more sense to just go underground instead of trying to bribe people, and risk getting an extra sentence if others found it?

[Yamane_Keto]

I find that these articles are more to attract clicks than to be something real.

"Analysts from the research institute Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality found that 91% of officials convicted of corruption within 10 years after Xi Jinping took office as Chairman of the People's Republic of China (2013) were among the 1%. richest people in China.

I don't like speculation, but I prefer numbers.
This is an infographic for the distribution of 16 mining pools. If we take the facts that Bitcoin mining is banned in China, we will find that mining from unknown pools represents about 1.3% and therefore still does not constitute a large percentage of mining pools. The percentage was greater than 30% in the past.

If we say that what is meant by mining is solo mining, I do not think that the citizen will risk that because of the noise generated by these devices and the consumption of electricity, and if that were the case, the percentage would still be low.

[safar1980]

Bribery in China still makes it possible to bypass all legal prohibitions on mining.

So you're saying all those underground miners, including those reported above are bribing officials then? I don't know, sounds like not what small miners would do. I find it difficult to believe it is cost-effective for residential miners, or whatever groups are doing the mining activity over there. Is there any data that shows the cost and how much bribe is required to make it possible to mine 'legally'? Wouldn't it make more sense to just go underground instead of trying to bribe people, and risk getting an extra sentence if others found it?

The article says that 3,700,000 people were convicted of bribery and 70% were government officials.
I think that in mining it is impossible without this. If a miner works illegally, then he does not pay taxes, which means he has money for bribes. It's the same in Russia.

[FP91G]

This is an infographic for the distribution of 16 mining pools. If we take the facts that Bitcoin mining is banned in China, we will find that mining from unknown pools represents about 1.3% and therefore still does not constitute a large percentage of mining pools. The percentage was greater than 30% in the past.

Where is the Russian hashrate on your chart? Russia ranks 2nd in mining

Russia has emerged as the world’s second-largest crypto mining country, overtaking Kazakhstan, according to reports from Bitriver, Russia’s largest bitcoin mining provider. While the United States remains the largest crypto miner, generating 3-4 gigawatts of mining capacity, Russia’s capacity reached one gigawatts in the first quarter of 2023. China, which banned crypto mining in 2021, did not make Bitriver’s top 10 list.
https://cryptopresales.com/russia-climbs-ranks-as-second-largest-crypto-miner-in-the-world/

[joniboini]

The article says that 3,700,000 people were convicted of bribery and 70% were government officials.
I think that in mining it is impossible without this. If a miner works illegally, then he does not pay taxes, which means he has money for bribes. It's the same in Russia.

I see, so it is just speculation so far. I guess it is unlikely to see any concrete data since most miners would likely prefer to hide to avoid being found out by the government. On the other hand, it is still up to debate how many people bribe somebody, and how many decide to mine and avoid both tax and bribe.

Where is the Russian hashrate on your chart? Russia ranks 2nd in mining

Isn't it possible that miners from Russia participated in one of the pools above? I don't see any country mentioned at all unless you count the USA if you think Foundry USA represents the whole country.

[safar1980]

The article says that 3,700,000 people were convicted of bribery and 70% were government officials.
I think that in mining it is impossible without this. If a miner works illegally, then he does not pay taxes, which means he has money for bribes. It's the same in Russia.

I see, so it is just speculation so far. I guess it is unlikely to see any concrete data since most miners would likely prefer to hide to avoid being found out by the government. On the other hand, it is still up to debate how many people bribe somebody, and how many decide to mine and avoid both tax and bribe.

This is impossible both in Russia and in China. When mining is prohibited, you need to immediately negotiate with officials so that they warn about checks or not check. In my experience, without support you can only mine with low power consumption on video cards.

[TheUltraElite]

This is impossible both in Russia and in China. When mining is prohibited, you need to immediately negotiate with officials so that they warn about checks or not check. In my experience, without support you can only mine with low power consumption on video cards.

If that is impossible how is Russia still occupying the top charts in the worldwide mining distribution? I dont think the miners break even that much with underground mining that they can pay bribes and keep up with maintenance costs at the same time.

@FP91G always says that Russia is second, but I found charts that contradict this statement.

Maybe fellow Russian miners from this forum can give us an insight on what the real issue here is? I would also love to hear from anyone who has experience of real life mining from China. @Barcode_ help us out please?

[FP91G]

@FP91G always says that Russia is second, but I found charts that contradict this statement.

" Russia has emerged as the world’s second-largest crypto mining country, overtaking Kazakhstan, according to reports from Bitriver, Russia’s largest bitcoin mining provider. "  from https://cryptopresales.com/

I know for sure that mining at such electricity prices is very profitable and China is not far away with cheap ASICs and spare parts for them.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5474164

[shield132]

China is a very strange country or I could say that Chinese people are strange. When China banned Bitcoin mining, many Chinese people came to my country, to one city and bought many apartments in a certain area. They definitely came for mining or crypto business in my country because there are many benefits, i.e. cheap electricity and super easy possibility to start a business if you are a foreigner.
It's also very strange that mining is banned in China but they are developing and manufacturing bitcoin miners and supply many people. At the same time, Chinese pools own a high share of the mining hash rate.

[ajaxmike]

China is a very strange country or I could say that Chinese people are strange. When China banned Bitcoin mining, many Chinese people came to my country, to one city and bought many apartments in a certain area. They definitely came for mining or crypto business in my country because there are many benefits, i.e. cheap electricity and super easy possibility to start a business if you are a foreigner.
It's also very strange that mining is banned in China but they are developing and manufacturing bitcoin miners and supply many people. At the same time, Chinese pools own a high share of the mining hash rate.

China banned the Bitcoin mining, so Chinese people go to world for making money by mining, because they are so clever.

[Minermaxer]

.. especially since I believe that the laws in China are strictly implemented.

Which is what I have been thinking since the day this thread was first posted. China is well known for its laws and habit of controlling everything that its citizens do. Hence if mining is illegal people would not dare to run it underground. However I am not aware of insider details, I would assume that the people there would be terrified of resuming mining even after a ban is running and think twice before re-starting if the ban if lifted.

Such a news article will make no sense until the ban is actually lifted.

You speak without knowledge. Have you ever seen how the business works?

There are many miners that can run underground even without public knowledge. You can easily export the machine to North Europe and run a farm, because hashpower is global. The bans are cosmetic.

[FP91G]

.. especially since I believe that the laws in China are strictly implemented.

Which is what I have been thinking since the day this thread was first posted. China is well known for its laws and habit of controlling everything that its citizens do. Hence if mining is illegal people would not dare to run it underground. However I am not aware of insider details, I would assume that the people there would be terrified of resuming mining even after a ban is running and think twice before re-starting if the ban if lifted.

Such a news article will make no sense until the ban is actually lifted.

You speak without knowledge. Have you ever seen how the business works?

There are many miners that can run underground even without public knowledge. You can easily export the machine to North Europe and run a farm, because hashpower is global. The bans are cosmetic.

In mining, the big problem is not to hide the equipment, although this is also important. It is possible to hide mining equipment, but it is difficult to hide the constant consumption of electricity. In Russia, power engineers have become very effective in catching illegal miners due to high electricity consumption.These are also cosmetic measures, but miners are afraid.

[Yamane_Keto]

...

There are many miners that can run underground even without public knowledge. You can easily export the machine to North Europe and run a farm, because hashpower is global. The bans are cosmetic.

Would you risk illegal, easy-to-detect, energy-guzzling and noisy activity for the potential profits? If you do, many people will not risk it, so since mining was banned in China, miners have moved to other countries. There may be a percentage of mining in China, but the main mining basins, which control a good percentage of hashrate, are outside China.
percentages here https://mempool.space/graphs/mining/pools and search for pools locations.