Retiring early with BTC

[Greyhats]

Hello all,

One of the advantages I see with bitcoin is enabling you to get out of the rat race earlier and retire. Starting this thread to talk and share some of my speculations, forecasts and plans. All the numbers you will see below are made up.

I made some assumptions, and some cred data from other bitcointalk users. Linked all the sources below.

Assumptions

You want retire early in 2029 but your official retirement year is 2045. You already have some net income sources eg 20k$ annually and you have sufficient retirement savings from 2045 onwards. You have a Btc stash, either still accumulating towards a goal or have reached that goal already.

You are considering early retirement in a LCOL, MCOL, or HCOL area. You will sell a % of your BTC to cover the 4 yrs of income needed to sustain yourself. It will be the form of some interval sell that you will figure out yourself. The avg sell price will equate to the 200 wma forecast in JJG fu thread.

You are US based, and will pay 0% Capital Gains on your asset sales because your other income source is under the amount

You will not take this post as providing any kind of tax, accounting or legal advice and will DYOR into applicable tax and legal rules that apply to you personal circumstances.

LCOL - need 1.3 BTC
MCOL - need 4.2 BTC
HCOL - need 8.1 BTC




Will come back to this thread and update my speculations in future. Topic is self moderated.

Kind regards,
Greyhats

[1714660030]

1714660030

[1714660030]

1714660030

[Greyhats]

Reserved to add sources

200 WMA forecast source

JJG - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719593#msg58719593

[Greyhats]

Assumptions

You want retire early in 2029 but your official retirement year is 2045. Your only source of money in early retirement is bitcoin however you have sufficient retirement savings from 2045 onwards. You have a Btc stash, either still accumulating towards a goal or have reached that goal already.

You are considering early retirement in a LCOL, MCOL, or HCOL area. You will sell a % of your BTC to cover the 4 yrs of income needed to sustain yourself. It will be the form of some interval sell that you will figure out yourself. The avg sell price will equate to the 200 wma forecast in JJG fu thread.

You are US based, and will pay 0% Capital Gains on your asset sales because your other income source is under the amount

You will not take this post as providing any kind of tax, accounting or legal advice and will DYOR into applicable tax and legal rules that apply to you personal circumstances.

LCOL - need 2.7 BTC
MCOL - need 4.8 BTC
HCOL - need 8.4 BTC

[dansus021]

So basically we need to sell the btc and a good price to cover all year's expenses and what happens if the price is at the bear market like we are now?

I think the best idea is still to use bitcoin as a digital gold or as a tool against inflation. and we can use other form of coin that has a gain on it like the ETH or BNB

[tabas]

While I agree that it is giving everyone the opportunity to retire early but I guess most of us will just retire and will be living with an easy life but won't be actually in a full retirement. Like if we're used to do things and that's making us some money with it, we just can't quit but we can chill and won't be pressured regardless of the hustle we do. I've got some plans of retirement also with the use of the few holdings that I've got and upon selling the percentage of it, I'll reinvest in somewhere else that will generate me money as well. While I am looking at the chart, I am trying to learn some parts of it. As for OP, if your only source for your retirement is BTC then you should do something wise on your sold BTCs and with that retirement money like find a passive income asset or business or reinvest it again something like that.

[Sim_card]

It is better that if you want to us your bitcoin as your retirement plan, you should have more than enough bitcoin that have passed your bitcoin target. This will help you to be able to diversify into other investment, like real estate, and you should also set up a business that will bring steady cash in flow before retiring. With the bitcoin in your portfolio, you must have hodli for a very long period of tine, let's say 12yrs and above, so that the compounding profit can be an advantage to you, after retirement. If you want to only depend on your bitcoin hodlings for retirement, you must have reached that fuck you status, where your bitcoin investment can take care of every of your responsibilities till death. It is not good to depend only on your bitcoin investment because there is no guarantee that bitcoin will be a safe haven in future.

[Neobanks]

It is better that if you want to us your bitcoin as your retirement plan, you should have more than enough bitcoin that have passed your bitcoin target. This will help you to be able to diversify into other investment, like real estate, and you should also set up a business that will bring steady cash in flow before retiring. With the bitcoin in your portfolio, you must have hodli for a very long period of tine, let's say 12yrs and above, so that the compounding profit can be an advantage to you, after retirement. If you want to only depend on your bitcoin hodlings for retirement, you must have reached that fuck you status, where your bitcoin investment can take care of every of your responsibilities till death. It is not good to depend only on your bitcoin investment because there is no guarantee that bitcoin will be a safe haven in future.

I sincerely agree with you in the sense of having enough Bitcoin beyond your target as retirement plan but if it's feasible to have a beyond target Bitcoin as retirement plan, I think it will make more sense to have an alternate retirement plans to will help you to have diversify your investment should in case there is any uncertainty like fluctuation in the value of Bitcoin.

It is better that if you want to us your bitcoin as your retirement plan, you should have more than enough bitcoin that have passed your bitcoin target. This will help you to be able to diversify into other investment, like real estate, and you should also set up a business that will bring steady cash in flow before retiring. With the bitcoin in your portfolio, you must have hodli for a very long period of tine, let's say 12yrs and above, so that the compounding profit can be an advantage to you, after retirement. If you want to only depend on your bitcoin hodlings for retirement, you must have reached that fuck you status, where your bitcoin investment can take care of every of your responsibilities till death. It is not good to depend only on your bitcoin investment because there is no guarantee that bitcoin will be a safe haven in future.

I sincerely agree with you in the sense of having enough Bitcoin beyond your target as retirement plan but even with the enough Bitcoin, I think it will make more sense to have alternate retirement plan other than only having Bitcoin because the alternate plan will help you to have a diversify investment.

[OgNasty]

I think Bitcoin has a place in any diversified portfolio, but I wouldn't look to it for retirement income.  I would actually advise people to build their Bitcoin position alongside their traditional investments and maybe cash out their BTC to move to income producing stocks that pay dividends as they retire.  This will give them income going forward without having to worry about the volatility in the Bitcoin market.  Exposure to only BTC as a way to retire could backfire on you bigtime if the price is down when you need emergency funds.  That's why I say Bitcoin is great to own and stack, but you've got to have some money coming in.

[Upgrade00]

Exposure to only BTC as a way to retire could backfire on you bigtime if the price is down when you need emergency funds.  That's why I say Bitcoin is great to own and stack, but you've got to have some money coming in.

Retirement funds means you will not be needing the funds for the next 10-40 years depending on your age. After that much time, if the market continues in a similar trajectory it has been on, it will not matter if we're in a bull or bear market.

Imagine buying Bitcoin when it was under $1,000. Would it matter now if you had sold during the last bullrun or now that the price is over $40k? I think not.

If you wait long enoivht the dips and spikes matter less.

[JariKriting]

How much money do you need to retire early assuming your income is 20k dollars per year.
and what is the investment strategy. what is the investment system strategy using the DCA system or what. and how to cover the value of assets if unexpectedly the price has decreased.

[Greyhats]

While I agree that it is giving everyone the opportunity to retire early but I guess most of us will just retire and will be living with an easy life but won't be actually in a full retirement. Like if we're used to do things and that's making us some money with it, we just can't quit but we can chill and won't be pressured regardless of the hustle we do. I've got some plans of retirement also with the use of the few holdings that I've got and upon selling the percentage of it, I'll reinvest in somewhere else that will generate me money as well. While I am looking at the chart, I am trying to learn some parts of it. As for OP, if your only source for your retirement is BTC then you should do something wise on your sold BTCs and with that retirement money like find a passive income asset or business or reinvest it again something like that.

Thanks for stopping in, just to clarify I see Btc as way to bridge the gap between early retirement and actual retirement. It was interesting for me to work out if one was to retire early and what would one need to do so based on living in a lcol,mocl,hcol. The other assumption really is you have fiat investments for retirement, so Btc is not your only source but gets you to the point they tax efficiently kick in.

[Greyhats]

I think Bitcoin has a place in any diversified portfolio, but I wouldn't look to it for retirement income.  I would actually advise people to build their Bitcoin position alongside their traditional investments and maybe cash out their BTC to move to income producing stocks that pay dividends as they retire.  This will give them income going forward without having to worry about the volatility in the Bitcoin market.  Exposure to only BTC as a way to retire could backfire on you bigtime if the price is down when you need emergency funds.  That's why I say Bitcoin is great to own and stack, but you've got to have some money coming in.

Thanks ognasty building on this I’m really stating Btc is not part of official retirement it just speeds up the ability to retire before you normally would. I see it as less risky since you are still
At working age and could rejoin  the workforce if it didn’t work out. In retirement you should have multiple sources of income and income vehicles across different currencies(read markets) eg rmb, eur, usd$ essentially hedging each other.

[Greyhats]

It is better that if you want to us your bitcoin as your retirement plan, you should have more than enough bitcoin that have passed your bitcoin target. This will help you to be able to diversify into other investment, like real estate, and you should also set up a business that will bring steady cash in flow before retiring. With the bitcoin in your portfolio, you must have hodli for a very long period of tine, let's say 12yrs and above, so that the compounding profit can be an advantage to you, after retirement. If you want to only depend on your bitcoin hodlings for retirement, you must have reached that fuck you status, where your bitcoin investment can take care of every of your responsibilities till death. It is not good to depend only on your bitcoin investment because there is no guarantee that bitcoin will be a safe haven in future.

The point is not to use your Btc for official retirement. You are absolutely right though you could choose not to retire early. Then as part of your diversified compounding investment portfolio(fiat &btc) use that as income sources. It was interesting for me to consider removing Btc from that scenario and seeing how it would enable retiring early vs officially, and I believe there is some merit in considering this.

[Greyhats]

How much money do you need to retire early assuming your income is 20k dollars per year.
and what is the investment strategy. what is the investment system strategy using the DCA system or what. and how to cover the value of assets if unexpectedly the price has decreased.

That 20k could be derived on many or a mix of different investment vehicles, but usually they are from 3 places(stock market, real estate, interest). Whatever they are is not really important it’s just part of the assumption you have something like this. I also included example where you don’t have any of this either. The most interesting thing for me when I put the numbers down is that it implies Btc is better than all other investments. If you consider the old rule of 3% then to have 20k you need 666k tied up in these fiat mixed vehicles, but if we were Btc only you really need 1.4 extraBTC for lcol. Its an interesting speculation but it digresses from true divergence of risk.

[EarnOnVictor]

It is better that if you want to us your bitcoin as your retirement plan, you should have more than enough bitcoin that have passed your bitcoin target. This will help you to be able to diversify into other investment, like real estate, and you should also set up a business that will bring steady cash in flow before retiring. With the bitcoin in your portfolio, you must have hodli for a very long period of tine, let's say 12yrs and above, so that the compounding profit can be an advantage to you, after retirement. If you want to only depend on your bitcoin hodlings for retirement, you must have reached that fuck you status, where your bitcoin investment can take care of every of your responsibilities till death. It is not good to depend only on your bitcoin investment because there is no guarantee that bitcoin will be a safe haven in future.

The point is not to use your Btc for official retirement. You are absolutely right though you could choose not to retire early. Then as part of your diversified compounding investment portfolio(fiat &btc) use that as income sources. It was interesting for me to consider removing Btc from that scenario and seeing how it would enable retiring early vs officially, and I believe there is some merit in considering this.

There are so many metrics and factors to consider here and for those who believe that they can base their retirement calculations upon some kind of assumption, they are merely deceiving themselves. Who knows what will happen in the next 30 years? I guess no one would know it, we can only assume and predict and be smart with our plans around what we assume/predict upon, as the real-time can only say of what will happen, not otherwise. This is why I advise everyone to cool down, Bitcoin as an investment can win or fail the longer time test, and like I used to say Bitcoin is still very young, we should be careful to plan our life dependency around it but enjoy it while it lasts. If one could be lucky enough to gain big with Bitcoin early, that is nice and money should be put to further good use by diversifying the portfolio into other investments too for safety because anything unforeseen can happen that will not be a good one. Planning one's retirement entirely on Bitcoin is not wise and safe, the past developments might cloud the judgment but it is not supposed to be.

[Wind_FURY]

So basically we need to sell the btc and a good price to cover all year's expenses and what happens if the price is at the bear market like we are now?

I think the best idea is still to use bitcoin as a digital gold or as a tool against inflation. and we can use other form of coin that has a gain on it like the ETH or BNB

Perhaps the best path for many people is actually not to retire early, keep enjoying your job while you're young, AND because you have your Bitcoin as your fall-back, not worry too much about your retirement. What will a person do if he/she retires early? He/she will just sell and spend every Satoshi he/she has worked hard to save.

[Fiatless]

So basically we need to sell the btc and a good price to cover all year's expenses and what happens if the price is at the bear market like we are now?

I think the best idea is still to use bitcoin as a digital gold or as a tool against inflation. and we can use other form of coin that has a gain on it like the ETH or BNB

Perhaps the best path for many people is actually not to retire early, keep enjoying your job while you're young, AND because you have your Bitcoin as your fall-back, not worry too much about your retirement. What will a person do if he/she retires early? He/she will just sell and spend every Satoshi he/she has worked hard to save.

I read a funny story that most people who retire early find it very boring that they want to go back to work. They missed their job and corporate life and they are going back to work. What will a young and vibrant man be doing after retirement? Maybe going on vacation, fishing, reading, watching movies or reading newspapers. There is no reason to retire early except there are maybe health issues or other conditions that could lead to forced retirement.

As Wind_FURY said, let us keep enjoying jobs and contributing to the growth of our nation's economy until we reach retirement age. But we should make plans that will make us financially stable after retirement. Using the DCA strategy to keep saving Bitcoin for our retirement is not a bad idea. Before we retire we might be surprised by the amount of Bitcoin we might have accumulated using DCA. My focus is not to rely on just my gratuity or pension to survive, this is why keeping Bitcoin will be a good option to save for retirement.  

However, thank you Greyhats for your analysis and advice.   

[tabas]

While I agree that it is giving everyone the opportunity to retire early but I guess most of us will just retire and will be living with an easy life but won't be actually in a full retirement. Like if we're used to do things and that's making us some money with it, we just can't quit but we can chill and won't be pressured regardless of the hustle we do. I've got some plans of retirement also with the use of the few holdings that I've got and upon selling the percentage of it, I'll reinvest in somewhere else that will generate me money as well. While I am looking at the chart, I am trying to learn some parts of it. As for OP, if your only source for your retirement is BTC then you should do something wise on your sold BTCs and with that retirement money like find a passive income asset or business or reinvest it again something like that.

Thanks for stopping in, just to clarify I see Btc as way to bridge the gap between early retirement and actual retirement. It was interesting for me to work out if one was to retire early and what would one need to do so based on living in a lcol,mocl,hcol. The other assumption really is you have fiat investments for retirement, so Btc is not your only source but gets you to the point they tax efficiently kick in.

Thanks for clarifying that. I thought that you're only going to retire and rely with BTC as your main source of your retirement fund. But I am not saying that even if it's going to be the only source, you won't get a good life. It's just best that even we get older, much better if we've got various sources of retirement fund and assets that we've invested while when we're younger. Because we have to fight inflation through that method and all stuff that a retired person needs is also going to get expensive.

[Greyhats]

There are so many metrics and factors to consider here and for those who believe that they can base their retirement calculations upon some kind of assumption, they are merely deceiving themselves. Who knows what will happen in the next 30 years?

Why save at all in any investment vehicle with all that optimism? Cmon now thats a bit crass and you know it, all investments are based on some kind of assumption lol!

[Greyhats]

So basically we need to sell the btc and a good price to cover all year's expenses and what happens if the price is at the bear market like we are now?

I think the best idea is still to use bitcoin as a digital gold or as a tool against inflation. and we can use other form of coin that has a gain on it like the ETH or BNB

Perhaps the best path for many people is actually not to retire early, keep enjoying your job while you're young, AND because you have your Bitcoin as your fall-back, not worry too much about your retirement. What will a person do if he/she retires early? He/she will just sell and spend every Satoshi he/she has worked hard to save.

Retiring early is definitely a personal choice,  I suppose it comes down to do enjoy your job or would you enjoy not having to do your job. Then to personal circumstances as well, and your obilgations to the fiat system your working for. e.g If your mortgaged to the hilt and you have a long time left then maybe early retirement isn't an option for you, and you need to go the prescribed route with general retirement at the official X age while you extract yourself from the debt you got yourself into.

I'm definitely not recommending early retirement, this is just pure speculation on could BTC help sustain you during early retirement while you wait for official retirement to kick in.