Why the us dollar might crash significantly

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I see in the thread opinions as political posturing that results in being for or against what the OP says. I honestly don't see this affecting either the euro or the dollar. I have been hearing about de-dollarisation for a while now and in the end what is happening is that the rubbish currencies are devaluing even faster than the dollar and people in those countries buy assets to shelter from that devaluation, if they buy a currency for shelter it is mainly the dollar, and if not the euro or other reliable ones, like the Swiss franc.

[legiteum]

I see in the thread opinions as political posturing that results in being for or against what the OP says. I honestly don't see this affecting either the euro or the dollar. I have been hearing about de-dollarisation for a while now and in the end what is happening is that the rubbish currencies are devaluing even faster than the dollar and people in those countries buy assets to shelter from that devaluation, if they buy a currency for shelter it is mainly the dollar, and if not the euro or other reliable ones, like the Swiss franc.

That was my take too: this is just a partisan attack dressed up as economic analysis. $300 billion is jack squat in the context of the US dollar even if they lit said dollars on fire.

[tread93]

It will lead to collapse, but all countries will develop a contingency plan so that if their assets are banned, they will have enough cash to control their people. Unfortunately, it will return the world to economic and financial blocs that prevent international trade and lead to a rise in the prices of goods, services and products. It is also not difficult for the United States to Printing $300 billion, given that its debts exceed $30 trillion.

Agreed, following through with this plan could potentially spark a domino effect with the trust of nations and the USD continuing as the WRC. Why not just print that money or hey here is a great idea why doesn't the US Government just get out of this war and funding it in the first place!!!! Its completely barbaric and stupid, President Biden will go down as the worst US President perhaps lol

[moneystery]

if biden does this, it can be predicted that this could trigger russia and its allies to go to war with the us and europe, because even though european authorities have frozen russian assets from moving out of their region, these assets have sovereignty immunity which cannot be taken away. if europe and the us continue to insist on doing this, it would be the same as disturbing russia's sovereignty and war could be a step taken by russia to maintain their sovereignty.

[electronicash]

if biden does this, it can be predicted that this could trigger russia and its allies to go to war with the us and europe, because even though european authorities have frozen russian assets from moving out of their region, these assets have sovereignty immunity which cannot be taken away. if europe and the us continue to insist on doing this, it would be the same as disturbing russia's sovereignty and war could be a step taken by russia to maintain their sovereignty.

they are already at war. but the seizure of Russia's assets will make other countries think their asset is also not safe if they also are going to get involved in this politics. india is currently in conflict because of the regime change attempt which they may also see as possibility that their assets will also be frozen. and this is what OP means today it's just Russia's asset so who will it be in the future?

since this is already a trust issue for other countries, they will prepare for what may come next especially because IMF has power over each country.

[kentrolla]

As joe Biden administration is planning to sieze the Russian central bank asset worth 300B us dollar to fund the war in Ukraine, it may sound logical but it is a move that will not only distabilize the world financial system, but it will also make almost all none western countries around the world to shift away from the dollar, euros currencies as foreign reserves, because no body will see such an event taking place and not taking actions to preserve it asset.
This to me is a very wrong move that will kill the trust that existed between the west and global south.
Major countries around the world will definitely interpret it this way, today it's Russia, tomorrow it will be us, and that action will crash the value of dollar and euros around the world.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-eyes-using-300-russia-frozen-assets-help-ukraine-backfire-2023-12

This will just backfire as other countries especially Balkan nations and those who have good relationship with Russia or else those who don't wish to be at risk of going through what happened with Russia because they will take it in a way that it's Russia now and in future if they go against USA or even have any disagreement then their fund would be freezed as well.

IMO neither this has impacted Russia nor had any significant impact on the ongoing war, it would only  cause harm to USD.

[iv4n]

Well, I'm fed up with these big powers that go to war and just spend money on weapons and more weapons, people are dying all the time, inflation is killing us in many ways, and there are many bad things around cause by big powers. I'm fed up with these politicians who just invent new conflicts and make this world even more complicated. At the end of the day, those billions wouldn't even exist if they didn't all work with each other, yesterday partners today enemies... and they still make billions, as usual, on the backs of good and ordinary people. So this is another good reason why we should love and embrace crypto.

I hope that we will see all fiat currencies crashing...

[pooya87]

I have been hearing about de-dollarisation for a while now and in the end what is happening is that the rubbish currencies are devaluing even faster than the dollar

What you are referring to is not exactly "devaluation", it is just exchange rate dropping because most countries didn't heavily increase the interest rate which would put any economy into recession and put a tremendous pressure on regular people, but US did increase interest rates. That means dollar got artificially higher in comparison to other fiats.
In fact the increased interest rate is an indication of a faster dedollarisation otherwise they wouldn't have had to increase the rates in first place.

Besides, that is not what dedollarisation means. Dedollarisation means countries that were using dollar in their international trades and as their reserve currency, start replacing it with other assets. It could be currency of other countries (eg. Arabs using Yuan to sell their oil) or it could be amassing gold (which is what most countries are doing).

and people in those countries buy assets to shelter from that devaluation, if they buy a currency for shelter it is mainly the dollar, and if not the euro or other reliable ones, like the Swiss franc.

Regardless of what people think of dollar and whether they agree that dedollarisation is happening not, it is extremely stupid to bag hold fiat currencies in times of global conflict and a destabilized international scene.

Instead a better choice is traditional assets such as gold which has been soaring over the past years. And of course Bitcoin is a good choice too.


P.S.

As joe Biden administration is planning to sieze the Russian central bank asset worth 300B us dollar to fund the war in Ukraine,

I just wanted to add that Treaty of Versailles was one of the main reasons leading to WW2.... that was equivalent of $442 billion... just saying...

[icalical]

If Biden executive were losing vote to fund Ukraine in the House of Representative, moving on to using the frozen Russian assets around European Bank is not the solution. I doubt those Europe Banks will allow it, they wouldn't want to lose their trust and reputation. And not only that, if U.S is actually doing it, it will give another country to do the same thing with any countries that is not in their favor. It will be going back and forth, and keep getting worse.

[kentrolla]

This method is clearly not working out in favor of west hence they should adopt a different strategy and it's a loss to west that more countries might start getting alienated from USD. joe biden and whoever gives these non sense suggestions should understand that they are just increasing suffering of ordinary people by doing this and it would create create hatred amongst the mind of ordinary people and they are not causing any damage to Russian regime. Already were have seen so many failed sanctions and siege on Iranian front going harmless on the regime.

[davis196]

As joe Biden administration is planning to sieze the Russian central bank asset worth 300B us dollar to fund the war in Ukraine, it may sound logical but it is a move that will not only distabilize the world financial system, but it will also make almost all none western countries around the world to shift away from the dollar, euros currencies as foreign reserves, because no body will see such an event taking place and not taking actions to preserve it asset.
This to me is a very wrong move that will kill the trust that existed between the west and global south.
Major countries around the world will definitely interpret it this way, today it's Russia, tomorrow it will be us, and that action will crash the value of dollar and euros around the world.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-eyes-using-300-russia-frozen-assets-help-ukraine-backfire-2023-12

1. Most the assets of the Russian central bank are in Europe, so I don't think that Joe Biden has a major role in the decision about whether or not to confiscate the assets.
2.The European politicians and bankers aren't dumb. They know the consequences of such decision, so the European authorities are trying to come up with legal justification of such confiscation. Confiscating the assets without a proper judicial justification means stealing.
The best decision would be to use the blocked Russian assets to payout the Russian government debt, which is owned by western creditors. Many banks and investment funds used to own Russian government bonds, but Russia failed to pay interest rates, because it was banned from the SWFT system. Such solution would be way better than "confiscate the assets and give them to Ukraine".

[electronicash]

As joe Biden administration is planning to sieze the Russian central bank asset worth 300B us dollar to fund the war in Ukraine, it may sound logical but it is a move that will not only distabilize the world financial system, but it will also make almost all none western countries around the world to shift away from the dollar, euros currencies as foreign reserves, because no body will see such an event taking place and not taking actions to preserve it asset.
This to me is a very wrong move that will kill the trust that existed between the west and global south.
Major countries around the world will definitely interpret it this way, today it's Russia, tomorrow it will be us, and that action will crash the value of dollar and euros around the world.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-eyes-using-300-russia-frozen-assets-help-ukraine-backfire-2023-12

1. Most the assets of the Russian central bank are in Europe, so I don't think that Joe Biden has a major role in the decision about whether or not to confiscate the assets.
2.The European politicians and bankers aren't dumb. They know the consequences of such decision, so the European authorities are trying to come up with legal justification of such confiscation. Confiscating the assets without a proper judicial justification means stealing.
The best decision would be to use the blocked Russian assets to payout the Russian government debt, which is owned by western creditors. Many banks and investment funds used to own Russian government bonds, but Russia failed to pay interest rates, because it was banned from the SWFT system. Such solution would be way better than "confiscate the assets and give them to Ukraine".

that doesn't sound like it can justify the confiscation. they created a problem for Russia to not be able to pay after being blocked from SWIFT and then accused them that they didn't pay.  but this wasn't the first time, remember the assets of Afghanistan were also seized when the Taliban took over the government to which they claim the funds will be used for the victims of terrorism to justify. regardless of who governs the country, the asset still belongs to the country.

it might depend on how other countries will interpret it but these countries found an alternative to SWIFT to conduct their international trades.
they were pushing countries like Russia, Iran, China, and NoKor to have a system where they could trade freely without using USD. it's a lot harder to control them in the end.

[Casdinyard]

As joe Biden administration is planning to sieze the Russian central bank asset worth 300B us dollar to fund the war in Ukraine, it may sound logical but it is a move that will not only distabilize the world financial system, but it will also make almost all none western countries around the world to shift away from the dollar, euros currencies as foreign reserves, because no body will see such an event taking place and not taking actions to preserve it asset.
This to me is a very wrong move that will kill the trust that existed between the west and global south.
Major countries around the world will definitely interpret it this way, today it's Russia, tomorrow it will be us, and that action will crash the value of dollar and euros around the world.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-eyes-using-300-russia-frozen-assets-help-ukraine-backfire-2023-12

it is bound to crash significantly from the get-go. The only thing that's really stopping it from now are a few planks plastered across the door so the pandemonium couldn't come in, but since these are nothing but band-aid solutions its bound to break or lose its effectivity soon, and when it does the US dollar's gonna fall along with all the currencies and assets/enterprises that built their foundations around it. No amount of Russian War's gonna stop nor hasten the effect of this cascade as it's gonna run it's course no matter what, so while your inference is correct I couldn't for the life of me agree with the reasons why you came up with the same prediction.

The debt ceiling is already increased and next year, they will have to increase it again or else they are going to be in deep financial trouble. They couldn't possibly pay off all their loans now since the US is not resource-rich, nor could they outsource their workers, plus most of their debts came from the stupid wars they waged against other countries so I doubt people are just gonna let them slide that easily. We truly are in the dark times now so it seems.

[Bananington]

We are already in times preceding a new world order of which ushers in new currency for some of the major countries in the world. The BRICS nation already see such happening to the dollar because with such expenses and use of dollar to fund wars, the exchange rate rises to compensate the value it offers at that time.
Many countries trade with the dollar and if it were to crash tomorrow, the economy of many countries would be varsly affected. Interest rates will sky rocket unless there is an alternative to the fiat and foreign exchange use.
 That's what and why cryptocurrency stands to assure continued transaction across border despite the exchange rates, the dollar crashing or rising and the tax system involved.

[STT]

make almost all none western countries around the world to shift away from the dollar

To rebalance debts, recover losses from laws broken is not new news in terms of trade balance and agreements I think we can go back decades for moves against rogue governments.  We could speculate is USA doing this unilaterally do they have the backing all members of the WTO for example, not all but I think its not unprecedented action.
  Venezuela is one country I can think of regularly seizing the assets of foreign firms as evil capitalists not matching their governments agenda to empower their people with the control and ownership of everything.  Sadly that attitude didnt work out and the government is resolved to yet another military dictatorship failing and killing their own people while sitting on the largest oil reserves in the world they cannot use them properly or allow others to help them do so.  
   In any case Venezuela had to pay for the assets seized, they risked seizure of any good traded internationally.  Russia again has done this for decades not just Ukraine but often unable to respect international law and no doubt will continue in the same way, again they have regularly had assets seized in order to settle the debt.  Its still damaging and failure in business but the process to return back value lost is not a new occurrence.

Socgen just sold assets to a Russian company for example, in the middle of a war which is illegal occupation of a sovereign state but it would be a failure to block or fail to pay for these assets and expect no debt to be accrued.

[DrBeer]

If this could be done to Russia another high profile country then smaller economy countries will be afraid hence surely find away to move there reserves else where because the effect of the action of Joe Biden can turn to other countries.

Since the world power can seize such an amount (assets) from Russia in the name of helping Ukraine it will surely get to other countries too so they will just have to move away the US dollar and Euros that might end up crashing the currencies as you said earlier.

I don't even see Joe Biden's action to be a way of disrupting the war rather I think is just for a selfish reason that has to do with the US itself.

Though Russia has been doing more harms than God to other smaller force countries from history but I don't see this to be a punishment to Russia. There are other ways to handle such cases.

If some country adheres to the concept of terrorism, ignores international laws, agreements, and commitments, and behaves like scum - such countries and regimes should certainly transfer their assets. Exchange the dollar for the ruble, and transfer assets to.... And by the way - where will the terrorist countries move their assets?

[harapan]

I strongly feel that all of these predictions are threat to the US dollar.Can the US dollar really crash?A currency is liable to crash when it loses it's  value completely or is entirely abandoned by the governmental body organizations.An occurance of these events
and economic factors can contribute to depreciating the U.S. dollar. These include monetary policy, rising prices or inflation, demand for currency, economic growth, and export prices.
 
  The US dollar crashing seems impossible to me initially,because it has been the worlds most used and prominent currency ever the since the second world war.If it eventually crashes,there will be a disastrous and catastrophic damage to the worlds economy hereby leading it into a global recession.

I know the BRICS countries are trying to promote thier currency in global trade.They have been making efforts to increase their global influence and adoption but its all a competition;BRICS vs US dollar,the US dollar is king,let's watch it unfolds.

Apparently,there is'nt any alternative currency to the US dollar,the US dollar is second to none and let's all be guided on how to survive in this economical uncertainty.

[pinggoki]

You forgot the part that the US can always print more dollars to fund their wars and stuff, the war on Ukraine is already a resounding success for the companies that manufactures radars and new weapon systems so there's no way that they'll crash, the US government wouldn't mind adding a few more trillion dollars of debt to their name in the name of being the strongest superpower nation in the country. They'll continue to be like that to keep the dollar as the money that will turn this world around. Global politics is complicated and what you're saying might not be true and what I might not be saying is true too but we can't be sure but I do know that it's definitely difficult to crash the US dollar or even crumble the US government.

[puloweh555]

You forgot the part that the US can always print more dollars to fund their wars and stuff, the war on Ukraine is already a resounding success for the companies that manufactures radars and new weapon systems so there's no way that they'll crash, the US government wouldn't mind adding a few more trillion dollars of debt to their name in the name of being the strongest superpower nation in the country. They'll continue to be like that to keep the dollar as the money that will turn this world around. Global politics is complicated and what you're saying might not be true and what I might not be saying is true too but we can't be sure but I do know that it's definitely difficult to crash the US dollar or even crumble the US government.

That's what America and Europe are afraid of. Despite various pretexts for helping Ukraine with the motto that Russia must lose, the real fear is the loss of hegemony and the fall of their currency. But believe me, everything will be possible, nothing is impossible, now China can surpass America in the world market, it is not impossible that one day the dollar will be abandoned by many countries and in the end the dollar will fall drastically.

Moreover, with the creation of a new trade order and economic system so that it does not depend on the American dollar and Euro, if the foreign exchange reserves of countries such as Russia, China and even BRICS members are large, it is very possible that the value of the dollar and euro will weaken.

[jrrsparkles]

Global politics is complicated and what you're saying might not be true and what I might not be saying is true too but we can't be sure but I do know that it's definitely difficult to crash the US dollar or even crumble the US government.

Everything has a threshold limit, if the US keeps pushing its limits harder then I don't see why they can't fail.

All the countries knew that China is progressing to surpass US in a decade or two in terms of overall GDP which can turn the geopolitics upside down, so what US needs to do is try to stronger their economy instead of keep repeating the mistake they have been doing for the 50 years.