Bitcoin's Market Performance During the Christmas Period

[Relonage]

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

Since 2017, over the seven days following Christmas, the probability of a price decrease has been over 66%. This trend indicates a prevalent likelihood of a decline in Bitcoin's value during this particular period. It's noticeable that the market sentiment during Christmas for Bitcoin hasn't exhibited consistent bullish behavior, as evidenced by the majority of the years showing a decline in value or a relatively modest increase.

However, past performance is not indicative of future results, and various factors can influence Bitcoin's price movement beyond historical patterns.

[MusaMohamed]

During time of weekends, holidays, there will be less orders in order books and market trading volume will be smaller. It gives whales good chances to manipulate the market.

I don't know they will dump the market around this Christmas and New Year holidays or will pump it, we soon will know.

Bitcoin Spot ETF applications soon will get a final decision from SEC in next 2 weeks. If they approve, Bitcoin will be pumped a lot but if they reject all Bitcoin Spot ETF applications, you know how the market will react.

But a more important point is Bitcoin halving will happen in April 2024, even if SEC. refuse all Bitcoin Spot ETF applications, 4 more months will be enough for Bitcoin to recover.

[hugeblack]

Tracking the price of Bitcoin in a narrow range, such as the Christmas period, and comparing it with the same period last year and previous years, leads to the monitoring period being very selective, and therefore the results generated are random, or, at best, not recommended.
The minimum period should be 3 months, taking into account support and resistance levels and 4-year cycles.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

A chart on X from BTC_Archive.
Think wider and bigger, think out of the Christmas Eve and Christmas Box, like look at Yearly candles will help you to have a merry Christmas and a happy new year, then you can hold your bitcoin and get profit after holidays.
https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/yearly-candles/

🎄 Bitcoin Price on Christmas Day:
2010: $0.25
2011: $4.22
2012: $13.35
2013: $690
2014: $318
2015: $455
2016: $895
2017: $13,983
2018: $3,779
2019: $7,193
2020: $24,705
2021: $50,440
2022: $16,828
2023: $43,146

[khiholangkang]

But in my opinion for Christmas this time it will only drop a few percent, because maybe the calculation you made is only for 7 days after Christmas, so not from the total month of December, and the results will be random, especially if you use data every year, this will look unfair because bitcon has a cycle, bearish and bullish which basically if at a bullish moment will get more price increases than decreases, and vice versa.

But thanks for the data, it's pretty good and maybe it needs to provide a broader view and needs to have a certain classification every year, because for me every year in the bitcoin cycle is different, so it needs to be studied in determining conclusions.

[siedemtrzy]

Well, that's expected. People are spending their time with family instead of crypto trading. And a lot of people sell their coins to purchase gifts, I'm sure of it.

[hugeblack]

A chart on X from BTC_Archive.
Think wider and bigger, think out of the Christmas Eve and Christmas Box, like look at Yearly candles will help you to have a merry Christmas and a happy new year, then you can hold your bitcoin and get profit after holidays.

The chart below ignores the fact that the price changes dramatically over the four years, so the last 4 years have a greater impact on the price than the first 4 years. Therefore, if you notice, the beginning of the chart was in the form of a straight line, while all of them are in the form of a pyramid.

But thanks for the data, it's pretty good and maybe it needs to provide a broader view and needs to have a certain classification every year, because for me every year in the bitcoin cycle is different, so it needs to be studied in determining conclusions.

The only benefit is the rapid growth of Bitcoin, which is starting to slow down.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

The chart below ignores the fact that the price changes dramatically over the four years, so the last 4 years have a greater impact on the price than the first 4 years. Therefore, if you notice, the beginning of the chart was in the form of a straight line, while all of them are in the form of a pyramid.

You are right about not full story from the chart on Bitcoin market growth over years but I think it does a good job to show Bitcoin price growth over years, even not with full details.

It will be endless argument like even a monthly, yearly chart over years won't be enough to display full details. People can argue to have 1 minute chart to see more details but please don't think I am writing this to argue with you.

It is only to explain that the chart from BTC_Archive is good enough to give us a view with a big picture.

Something is more helpful but not full details about the market.
https://casebitcoin.com/charts#data_tables

[Fundamentals Of]

I'd rather give more weight to the prices of Bitcoin during Christmas days than the seven days following Christmas. Anything can happen within a week, but the view that is actually much wider is when you compare the prices of Bitcoin during Christmas days. That would be comparing annual prices of Bitcoin on a certain day of the year. It's more pleasing to the eyes and more suggestive of what to do with your Bitcoin. It teaches us to hodl long term because although there were Christmas days in the past in which the price has gone down, most of it is really about price appreciation. Comparing Christmas day prices gives us a lesson.

[YUriy1991]

The only benefit is the rapid growth of Bitcoin, which is starting to slow down.

This part is quite easy to understand why this is so. It slows down because people are confused and currently many people need faster payments while still in the festive period and the New Year moment and have to look for brokers who offer urgent settlement options for fast transfers as late as we can wait until the next 1 working days.

[traderethereum]

The only benefit is the rapid growth of Bitcoin, which is starting to slow down.

This part is quite easy to understand why this is so. It slows down because people are confused and currently many people need faster payments while still in the festive period and the New Year moment and have to look for brokers who offer urgent settlement options for fast transfers as late as we can wait until the next 1 working days.

Of course, people now need more cash at the end of the year. They may sell their assets to enjoy the turn of the year, which will result in crypto prices experiencing a correction.
We can only hope that the correction that occurs will not cause the price to decline too deeply.
The decline in the price of bitcoin will provide an opportunity for investors to increase the amount of bitcoin. They will start buying bitcoin at a low price and continue buying it even if the price of bitcoin continues to decline and could remain at a low price for some time.
But if we can't buy it yet, we must stay calm and wait for when we can buy bitcoin again.

[RioBlemz]

What is the drive to Bitcoin? A lot of person are positive about the ETF and also Halving by the side. Notwithstanding the decrement you are seeing is for a short term as the market is finding a resting position before it takes another major move.

[KingsDen]

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

The few Christmas I witnessed in this forum(2021 and 2022), there's one thing that is common among them and that is price decrease in the Christmas day. I understood that it is because of some sell pressure by people who wants to enjoy their Christmas day with friends and loved ones. Currently, the reduction in price during yesterday Christmas was expected but it was moderate as the bitcoin price is currently still in the range of $$42, slightly off the $43 range.

If this Christmas didn't reduce the bitcoin price much, it shows that the bullish market is very much around. This is another evidence. Meanwhile, I will go and check what really happened the past years after the Christmas day. It can give me the clue of what I will be expecting this time.
This ought to be in reputation board.

[NewRanger]

The few Christmas I witnessed in this forum(2021 and 2022), there's one thing that is common among them and that is price decrease in the Christmas day. I understood that it is because of some sell pressure by people who wants to enjoy their Christmas day with friends and loved ones. Currently, the reduction in price during yesterday Christmas was expected but it was moderate as the bitcoin price is currently still in the range of $$42, slightly off the $43 range.

If this Christmas didn't reduce the bitcoin price much, it shows that the bullish market is very much around. This is another evidence. Meanwhile, I will go and check what really happened the past years after the Christmas day. It can give me the clue of what I will be expecting this time.

Not only during the Christmas period, there is a decrease in prices in Consumer Behavior, this is also seen during holidays, especially Saturdays and Sundays. Some of them will sell a number of bitcoins to meet their shopping needs and enjoy a relaxing week with family and friends, although on the other hand it also has an impact on the market, causing a little pressure and I think currently this is not too much of a problem if we pay attention.

For long-term purchases, a decline is a good decision, but we have to make sure by looking at the existing data so that when we buy there won't be another decline after the decline with tips, combining several tools will give us the best signal with less risk. This means that we will easily know the direction of the next market trend and prepare to accumulate it again.

[Emmanuelex]

That's really nice
I wish you will update and add this year's Christmas performance to the list as well.

[rodskee]

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

Since 2017, over the seven days following Christmas, the probability of a price decrease has been over 66%. This trend indicates a prevalent likelihood of a decline in Bitcoin's value during this particular period. It's noticeable that the market sentiment during Christmas for Bitcoin hasn't exhibited consistent bullish behavior, as evidenced by the majority of the years showing a decline in value or a relatively modest increase.

However, past performance is not indicative of future results, and various factors can influence Bitcoin's price movement beyond historical patterns.

I don't think that 7 days is enough to evaluate the price and comparison will come
 because there is a need for certain time to make it successful in having a list,

and besides it is normal for the market to drop in the early end of December because
the season is ending so as the investors are taking their profits at least for a year , but what is
important is that we have mostly climbing from October to December things that we must be
thankful then.

[crwth]

The primary thing about the changes in prices is the market. I think the following, on Christmas day, is different each time because of the investor's actions. Like how they would be in the holidays? Maybe in 2020, since there are no vacations or the pandemic is still rampant, it has increased in price because the money has nowhere to go. For 2021 however, the biggest decrease, probably because a lot of people already wanted to go on vacation or some sort. I believe that's the case and cannot classify how the investors are during the times.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

The primary thing about the changes in prices is the market. I think the following, on Christmas day, is different each time because of the investor's actions. Like how they would be in the holidays? Maybe in 2020, since there are no vacations or the pandemic is still rampant, it has increased in price because the money has nowhere to go. For 2021 however, the biggest decrease, probably because a lot of people already wanted to go on vacation or some sort. I believe that's the case and cannot classify how the investors are during the times.

Christmas is when people go with holidays, hang out with friends, meet their family members and it's special time each year. They will be less actively on cryptocurrency market even they can do it with mobile devices and Internet connection.

Whales and market makers will take advantage of Christmas and other holidays to dump the market. Usually they will go dumping the market than pumping it but this year is special and it raises a very uncertain big question.

Will the market be dumped or will it be pumped because of SEC decision on Bitcoin Spot ETF applications in next 2 weeks?

If it is in another year, I bet on dump but this year, even I think there are many reasons for Bitcoin to be dumped, SEC decision is a big uncertainty.

[MFahad]

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

Since 2017, over the seven days following Christmas, the probability of a price decrease has been over 66%. This trend indicates a prevalent likelihood of a decline in Bitcoin's value during this particular period. It's noticeable that the market sentiment during Christmas for Bitcoin hasn't exhibited consistent bullish behavior, as evidenced by the majority of the years showing a decline in value or a relatively modest increase.

However, past performance is not indicative of future results, and various factors can influence Bitcoin's price movement beyond historical patterns.

Based on the information you have shared, it doesn't seem like there is much chance for the Bitcoin price to go up on Christmas. It is also easy to predict that the price may either remain stable, or there will be a higher chance of a downward trend. Apart from history, the reason for this is that people often go on vacation at Christmas, and because of the vacation, they often spend more time with their families. Majority of people exit the cryptocurrency market, due to which trading is negligible, and this will definitely have an impact on the market.

 when the capital does not come in then the market price may go down instead of up. However, I don't think we can see any significant increase in the price of Bitcoin this Christmas. Different factors can influence each time.There is no specific period at which various factors may affect the market a lot.However, many experts are thinking that the last week of the year may be bearish in the market.

[Faisal2202]

However, past performance is not indicative of future results, and various factors can influence Bitcoin's price movement beyond historical patterns.

Thanks for sharing the stats but what is the source of these stats, did you take them from some site if yes then please mention the reference as well for authenticity or did you calculate them manually?

I was also thinking/observing that in the Christmas market can fluctuate under the shadow of current sentiments about ETF's results being announced on 10th January. I concluded that the market will be very volatile in the first days of January. And besides all that, I all thought the market might be highly volatile in the last 10 days of December but so far it is doing good and keeping the support of $43k.

You provided stats, showing a pattern that is very easy to detect and that is, in 2017 the price increased and after then for two years it decreased and then it increased in 2020 and it then decreased for the next two years and now the third year 2023 it might increase as per pattern. And the funny thing is price is increasing and not following the previous two years's trend or average trend either.