Maslate (OP)
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December 27, 2023, 03:00:05 PM |
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There's an article I read that a sports bettor needs to have a win rate of 53% overall to be profitable assuming proper bankroll are practiced. We are talking of a bettor here taking odds that are -110 only, which is 1.90 if converted in decimal.
This topic has arise because I'm wondering, what if we just bet +110 all the time and just get 50% win rate to be profitable.
So for sports bettors like me, I'm asking this question, which would do you think will make you profitable, -110 or +110?
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cabron
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December 27, 2023, 03:33:50 PM |
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The underdog +110 would make you win more and this is if the team wins. The underdog usually has the higher sometimes it's 3/1 if they win. Since your concern is which is profitable then go for the favorite because its usually the ones who will win especially in boxing or even in basketball.
Depending on which sport I guess and I found out in soccer, my favorite doesn't always win. The underdog team can sometimes come up as the winner which is very unexpected.
-110 I think translates to 1.10
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Slow death
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December 27, 2023, 04:13:24 PM |
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In my experience, only odds of 2.00 upwards are profitable in the long term, this is because if a person bets on a game in which there is an odd of 2.00 and wins the bet, then that person, when in the next game, bets on a game with an odd of 2.00 upwards. up and losing is still not a loss as long as that person always makes a bet using the same amount of money. I will give an example of my case, when I deposit 10$ to play, I count that I will only bet on a game with odds of 2.00 and above and I will place 2$, if I get it right and end up with 4$, I will then count that I will have 2 more bets of 2$ and only if I lose on both bets and I would be left with losses, but even if I ended up with losses because I lost on 2 bets, it would be enough for me to get the third bet right and I would recover my lost money
I always follow this discipline. but there are cases in which I make multibet bets but always with odds above 3.00 in case of multibet bets, this is because the risk of losing in the multibet bet is very high, so the reward for getting the multibet bet right must be good so that I can have a good amount of money that will allow me to place more multibet bets without making losses early. Of course, simple bets with odds of 2.00 are much more difficult to get right, which is why I'm careful to choose a game that's worth betting on. making simple bets with odds of 1.10 or 1.30, or 1.50 in my opinion over the long term is not worth it, I can accept betting on games with at least 1.70 when I see that there is no good bet of 2.00 and a bet of 1.70 or 1.8 or 1.90 has a good chance of me getting it right. but I only bet with low odds when I place it in my multibet bet
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famososMuertos
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December 27, 2023, 05:10:21 PM |
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Well...if it were as easy as what they said, we would all be covered/($$$)
It is not as easy as betting on a certain probability, it is a sum of all the possibilities in the global of your bets, and that gives you an ROI.
For those who like to always bet on the big favorites, read about the Overround.
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Maslate (OP)
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December 28, 2023, 05:17:21 AM Last edit: December 28, 2023, 06:00:50 AM by Maslate Merited by Jawhead999 (1) |
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-110 I think translates to 1.10
No sir, -110 translate to 1.91. While 1.10 is equivalent to -1000.. That's american moneyline actually. I think there's an option in a sportsbook where we can choose whether we use decimal odds or american.
In my experience, only odds of 2.00 upwards are profitable in the long term, this is because if a person bets on a game in which there is an odd of 2.00 and wins the bet, <>
That's what I'm thinking too, it's for long term, and honestly, I haven't been so consistent betting on odds higher than 2.00 or at least at that level. Maybe that's the reason why I am at loss now in overall or long term. Maybe I should try to experiment and see for myself, thanks for sharing mate. For those who like to always bet on the big favorites, read about the Overround.
Thanks famos, I did a quick search and this looks interesting, reading it now.
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mirakal
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December 28, 2023, 12:10:29 PM |
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I think most bettors would choose -110 or the favorites. And we all know that by getting that kind of odds, we will pay 10% of our winning to the sportsbook since we will only be getting 1.90 every time we win, just imagine getting 90% of your bet every time you win, that's losing 10% profit, but that's how it is, bookies makes profit from vig, so we just have to play their game.
Personally, I sometimes take odds with +110 or more, but most of my bets is at least -110.
Now, about profitability, I think I am still in (deficit).
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inthelongrun
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December 28, 2023, 02:55:51 PM |
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My favorite betting odds are between 1.90 to 2.05 although sometimes I extended it to 1.85. So yeah, I prefer the -110 which is like the 50/50 without the house edge. But I don't see much difference between -110 or 1.91 and +110 or 2.10.
53% win rate at 1.90 or -111 means a $7 profit out of your 100 bets at $10 each bet. It's pretty small but much easier to win.
Getting a 50% win rate at +110 or 2.10 means winning 5% or $50 out of your 100 bets at $10 each bet.
Overall it isn't easy to stay within your favorite betting odds range because it depends on the market availability and how complicated it becomes. In basketball, almost all odds are available using the spreads. And this is why NBA basketball is my favorite when it comes to betting.
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Wapfika
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December 28, 2023, 03:04:59 PM |
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So for sports bettors like me, I'm asking this question, which would do you think will make you profitable, -110 or +110?
Usually a match that offers this kind of odds involves both that has close stats. Bookmaker just consider a different aspect which favorite team has a slight advantage but they can be considered as close match. On game like this, I usually preferred the underdog since it’s still a close fight while the odds is above 2.0 which is the base odds. The only time I will choose 1.9 is when I have a complete analysis to the favorite team. But game like soccer will makes me always choose an underdog with odds like this.
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Jawhead999
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December 28, 2023, 03:09:02 PM |
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That's 50/50 games, so it's not about which odds you pick anymore, but which team or player is strong, usually I pick the more experienced one than the newcomer. I value the odds when it's a big underdog e.g. +150 or +200, not really huge since huge underdog seems almost impossible to pull an upset. I also not in favor to bet on huge favorite, the return isn't worth to risk.
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bounceback
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December 28, 2023, 03:33:08 PM |
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Some sport betting gambling side give odds with number around -110 or +110 and I am not understand well because most interested with odds @1.50 until @2.00. I don't really sure with some match with bigger odds because all sport bookie have right prediction by giving small odds get chance for that team will win the match. I like with odd around @1.22 to @1.50 because more safety and less risk with match losses, but if want get adrenaline not bad ideas try with betting above @2.00 or raise until higher odd but can't guarantee you will win the match. Get higher odd when matches live, exactly with bigger team get conceded early and will be excited for some sport bookie will give more interested odd.
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Botnake
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December 28, 2023, 04:44:53 PM |
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My favorite betting odds are between 1.90 to 2.05 although sometimes I extended it to 1.85. So yeah, I prefer the -110 which is like the 50/50 without the house edge. But I don't see much difference between -110 or 1.91 and +110 or 2.10.
50/50 on the game, maybe, but in terms of payout, it's never 50/50 when you bet on -110, because you need to risk $110 usd to win $100. That's a big disadvantage on our part, perhaps we can call that 10% or additional $10 of our bet to win $100 as a house edge and if we aren't exceptional, we would easily lose games. I don't know the reason behind while most of the videos I see online are using -110 per bet most of the time, probably this gives a higher percentage of winning, but 53% win rate for long term is not gonna be easy in actual practice.
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Kasabus
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December 29, 2023, 04:50:25 PM |
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My favorite betting odds are between 1.90 to 2.05 although sometimes I extended it to 1.85. So yeah, I prefer the -110 which is like the 50/50 without the house edge. But I don't see much difference between -110 or 1.91 and +110 or 2.10.
50/50 on the game, maybe, but in terms of payout, it's never 50/50 when you bet on -110, because you need to risk $110 usd to win $100. That's a big disadvantage on our part, perhaps we can call that 10% or additional $10 of our bet to win $100 as a house edge and if we aren't exceptional, we would easily lose games. We aren't experts here, so we can't say what's right or wrong. Let's just make a judgement based on our experience, or the outcome of our gambling. So regardless of what strategy we are using, as long as we feel comfortable using it and very confident with the outcome, we should stick with it. The thing is, if -110 or +110 guarantee a winner, then only one should have exist, the other will not be use by gamblers. Reality now is that it's still used now, some loves to bet on favorite, while some on the underdog. I don't know the reason behind while most of the videos I see online are using -110 per bet most of the time, probably this gives a higher percentage of winning, but 53% win rate for long term is not gonna be easy in actual practice.
Probably that's just the standard, or a way for the sportsbook to call it one so they'll continue to rip that juice, regardless on what side will win.
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alani123
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December 29, 2023, 06:32:37 PM |
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This strategy's risk is that there are often great upsets in sports.
If this strategy was a successful one, you could just go to the NCCA basketball league and pick all the matches with low losing odds. Among the hundreds of matches in this league, there are dozens like that. And since it's basketball one team has to win.
You could create a paroli with a dozen or so matches and combining all the odds it could easily be a 5X or even 10x altogether instead of 0.1x winnings. But the issue is that often these matches are swayed the other way and then the casino wins all of your pot... Either betting or gambling, it's hard to beat the house.
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Heartilly
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December 29, 2023, 10:54:07 PM |
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This topic has arise because I'm wondering, what if we just bet +110 all the time and just get 50% win rate to be profitable.
Just think about this mate, if that is really a profitable strategy then why it's not even making a big sound as a famous doing in sports betting? Simply, because "it's not working". Low odds doesn't guarantee an always profit. Also in my own point of view, are you willing to bet a decent amount just to feel the profit at +110? It's more risky to me compare betting at underdogs which already expected that losing is more likely to happened but in return, a good profit.
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Maslate (OP)
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December 30, 2023, 09:43:22 AM |
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This topic has arise because I'm wondering, what if we just bet +110 all the time and just get 50% win rate to be profitable.
Just think about this mate, if that is really a profitable strategy then why it's not even making a big sound as a famous doing in sports betting? Simply, because "it's not working". Low odds doesn't guarantee an always profit. When evaluating the success rate of your gambling venture, it does not based on the odds alone. -110 and +110, it's only 10% is the difference. Wagering on the winning picks is still the key. Most of the videos I saw, they don't talk much about the odds, but rather on how to pick a team with a reasonable odds. Also in my own point of view, are you willing to bet a decent amount just to feel the profit at +110? It's more risky to me compare betting at underdogs which already expected that losing is more likely to happened but in return, a good profit.
I think we have a miscommunication here. +110 is underdog, while -110 is for favorite dude.
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danherbias07
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December 30, 2023, 01:00:37 PM |
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-110 I think translates to 1.10
No sir, -110 translate to 1.91. While 1.10 is equivalent to -1000.. That's american moneyline actually. I think there's an option in a sportsbook where we can choose whether we use decimal odds or american. Yes, he is right. Use this to help out with converting. https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.htmlCredits to the owner of that website. Very helpful. -1000 means a heavy favorite which translates to 1.10 like @Maslate said. Alright, back to the question of OP. I think it will depend on the teams or players that will be playing. I always prefer the 1.90 (-110) and that's actually a bit high for me. I can go down to 1.60 - 1.70 because I think the chances of winning are also getting higher. +110 or 2.10 makes the chances go lower especially when we are picking the right spreads. I've had my share of mistakes for only 1 point difference because of that greediness. Example: Instead of picking -4.5 = 1.80, I picked -5.5 = 1.90. Then, that team will win by just 5 points. I could've won it if I stopped being greedy and just accepted the odds that would suffice to cover. I know that team will win and I have no doubts but the guessing of the spreads is the hardest part of all and 1 point can make a big difference. So yes, I will pick 1.90 over 2.10 and I will accept even lower than 1.90.
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Maslate (OP)
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 03, 2024, 07:37:09 AM |
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-110 I think translates to 1.10
No sir, -110 translate to 1.91. While 1.10 is equivalent to -1000.. That's american moneyline actually. I think there's an option in a sportsbook where we can choose whether we use decimal odds or american. Yes, he is right. Use this to help out with converting. https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.htmlCredits to the owner of that website. Very helpful. -1000 means a heavy favorite which translates to 1.10 like @Maslate said. Alright, back to the question of OP. I think it will depend on the teams or players that will be playing. I always prefer the 1.90 (-110) and that's actually a bit high for me. I can go down to 1.60 - 1.70 because I think the chances of winning are also getting higher. +110 or 2.10 makes the chances go lower especially when we are picking the right spreads. I've had my share of mistakes for only 1 point difference because of that greediness. Example: Instead of picking -4.5 = 1.80, I picked -5.5 = 1.90. Then, that team will win by just 5 points. I could've won it if I stopped being greedy and just accepted the odds that would suffice to cover. I know that team will win and I have no doubts but the guessing of the spreads is the hardest part of all and 1 point can make a big difference. So yes, I will pick 1.90 over 2.10 and I will accept even lower than 1.90. Nice explanation. Yours is based on your actual experience, that's what we all need here to make this thread significant. Personally I still find 1.90 giving a higher chance of winning, but the question is, is it profitable? We are talking of long term profitability ratio here, and personally, if I would choose +110 in all of my bets. I woudl make sure I will limit my bets and will just choose some quality games that I'm confident I'll be able to cap it right.
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