choose an option

[darkangel11]

which would you prefer to receive?
a. $480,000 lottery win as payments spread over 96months(8 years) of $5k a month
b. $480,000 lottery win as payment lumpsum $480k
c. $480,000 of bitcoin at(~$24k/btc buy price recent months allocated to the donator) 20btc
d. $480,000 value house
e. $480,000 value business
f. $480,000 of gold at(~$1.8k/ounce buy price recent months allocated to the donator) 266ounce

Let's say we adjust the numbers to the current rates.
I'd choose c (even at current 42k) and here's why.

a. -usually if you spread the win over x years you get the full sum and a lump sum gets you only 75%. You made both these the same numbers, so it's simply not worth it to take "a"when you have "b." If you ask someone if he'd like $100 now or $10 now and the rest divided to $10 a month, I bet you $100  that out of 10 random people nobody would take the second option.
b - In my country you can't declare bitcoin for tax purposes, only fiat money and when you exchange bitcoin to fiat you need a proof of funds. So, if You receive bitcoin, you pay nothing and can later spend that bitcoin within the lower tax bracket. You can't do that with fiat money and if you get $500k, you'll pay close to $200k in taxes...
c- by far the est option. Not only it allows you to profit from a coming bull run, but also choose how much tax you'll pay. Even if you decide to spend some of that at current price with no profit, if you stay below a certain amount (~$50k), you'll only pay 20% tax, when compared to 45% if you accepted all that in lump sum fiat money. Also, I'd have an option to move to a more lenient country to sell with no tax and I wouldn't be able to do that with fiat.
d- a house costs you money to maintain and a $450k house isn't something cheap and easy to rent out. It may take months before you find a tenant. Also, selling a house takes time.
e- I have no time to manage a business and I may have no knowledge in the field of that business. Let's say you get a beauty salon, or a  restaurant worth $450k. I wouldn't know how to run it.
f- Probably second best option after C, but it's much harder to move around and sell. If there was only fiat money and gold to choose, I'd get gold, but since there's bitcoin...

[franky1]

i might have said things before but lets summarise

a. taking a lottery win as $5k for 96month
what some do not realise is if a lottery commission keeps the $480 and only gives you $5k a month ($60k a year) you are not realising that they have put that money into a account earning 5% interest. meaning it earns$24k a year. so when they pay you $60k they are actually only paying you $36k of the lump
which after paying 96 payments of $5k leaves the lottery commission with $126k to keep as profit

b.
if you take the lump and invest it in some account that offers 5% you can claim the $5k income and still have $126k after 96months
                                                             investment that offers 8% you can claim the $5k income and still have $239k after 96months
                                                             investment that offers 12.5% you can claim the $5k income and still have $480k after 96months

c. is obvious, taking what was $480k in bitcoin (20btc at $24k) is now 20btc=$860k

d. houses have ongoing local state/council/land tax. maintenance and other bills like insurance. so its not a straight forward sit and wait for better market valuations

e.businesses have ongoing costs too. supplies, labour and advertising and leases and insurances

f. gold is near its all time high so has more chance of correcting down rather than continuing up

[STT]

Ultimately one main deterrent exists to long term dollar in that the value is totally sure to decline and so you do not want to expose yourself in that way.  Your pension is already due to arrive in greatly reduced dollars by the time you spend it, don't duplicate or increase your liabilities in any way a plain citizen is already exposed to.   Some people with alot of assets but also debt can say they are hedged vs dollars losses but this doesnt apply to most of us .

(8 years)  of inflation at 10% is a ton of value lost in those dollars received.  It would reduce the per month amount of 5000 to 2152 dollars after 8 years of value lost.

[franky1]

(8 years)  of inflation at 10% is a ton of value lost in those dollars received.  It would reduce the per month amount of 5000 to 2152 dollars after 8 years of value lost.

it wont reduce amount to 2152, it will just men what you buy with 5k in 8 years is the number of goods 2152 buys today

might be best to use real numbers
year          interest   from 5k
2015   0.12        4994
2016   1.26        4931.08
2017   2.13        4826.04
2018   2.44        4708.29
2019   1.81        4623.07
2020   1.23        4566.20
2021   4.70        4351.59
2022   8.00        4003.46

so 5k today only buys $4003 amount of goods at 2015 prices

[tygeade]

I would choose  $480000 worth houses that will give rental income to me . In my point of view, if I have a house to rent then I will get  a fare that is stable income firstly. Then I will invest in   Bitcoin  , the future of Bitcoin is very bright and in future Bitcoin will be part of our life and people could pay any bill by Bitcoin .I will invest in Bitcoin for long duration and in my opinion it is safe and I will get a huge amount of money by this . My third. Choice is $480000 of businesses.I know about business good,So I want to invest in businesses.I am a big fan of Robert Kiyosaki and I read his many books in which he taught how to invest in businesses.

I would only choose that option if it is a few houses and not a single one. I would still prefer bitcoin right now to be fair, all 480k worth bitcoin at this moment, but if I assume that I want a house, I would get a few of them and not just a single house.

Reason for that is the fact that if you have just one house, that means you need to find someone who would rent a 480k worth house, and even though you may, the moment they get out you start to look for one again. Whereas, if I have like 4 houses worth 120k each, or even 8 houses worth 60k each, that means it would be fine, if one leaves, you still have all the rest paying you, and you will end up finding one without getting too much financially left hanging. That is why I would prefer a few houses, and not just a single house.

[STT]

so 5k today only buys $4003 amount of goods at 2015 prices

Inflation is an uneven thing to measure, no doubt some things are cheaper now not more expensive.   The statistics accounts for improvement a bit like an insurance process might in replacement, I think its called hedonics.    Anyhow I dont disagree on referring to figures as it helps removes bias, my view of inflation will vary from you or anyone depends how we spend our money etc.

 I'll post the figures but inflation in 8 years from mid seventies to mid eighties worked to roughly half the value of money at that time.   People suffered greatly from what I've heard, our oldest living President but also a 1 term president is largely for that reason of poverty in the population that might elect him they chose not to a 2nd time.
    So the rule stands today, in great strife 1 term president becomes precedent :p   Trump had the pandemic regardless of what else you think of him, to be put out of office was quite normal.    Can we say the same for Biden I would guess not exactly but inflation is an ongoing threat imo re OP proposition.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hedonic-regression.asp

[franky1]

Inflation is an uneven thing to measure, no doubt some things are cheaper now not more expensive.  

i agree going by strictly "inflation" official numbers doesnt help

for instance canned food in a supermarket here was £0.50 average just 2 years ago. where as this year its £1.50 so a 300% rise instead of the stated 12.7% (4.7+8%) official stats
car fuel went from £1.30/ltr to £2/ltr to £1.49/litre in 2 years. so again official inflation stats dont always correspond to real world spending of particular things

[Assface16678]

I would choose option E, a business, well, simply because if I have a business, then I can guarantee a lot of years of having that business and continuous profit if only I handle the business well. But yes, there is a risk in business or owning a business, but it's worth taking the risk and making it happen. You see, in other options, I will get a certain amount of money and a certain period, but what if those periods? In the end, I will have nothing to save up because of the expenses. So I would rather choose the business so I can have a long-term money profit; in short, I will think long-term. With a business, I have the possibility of growing it into a successful business, and it will also give me long-term wealth, which is more practical to choose and it will give me a long term opportunity.

[franky1]

I would choose option E, a business, well, simply because if I have a business, then I can guarantee a lot of years of having that business and continuous profit

"guarantee"   "continuous profit"  HA
usually someone selling a business, means there must be a reason why they are selling it. getting a business is not a sure thing, sometimes you end up having to invest alot more money to bring the business back into modern standards/profitability

its like real estate.. many people that do them lotteries where the lottery commission award a house. the recipient then cant afford the legal fee's taxes and modernisations to make it fit to break even/profit. yep alot of people end up just selling the house/business because managing it to make it valuable is too much cost/effort. so they sell it to pass the problem onto someone else. sometimes selling it below value just to get rid of the problem

[dezoel]

I would choose option E, a business, well, simply because if I have a business, then I can guarantee a lot of years of having that business and continuous profit

"guarantee"   "continuous profit"  HA
usually someone selling a business, means there must be a reason why they are selling it. getting a business is not a sure thing, sometimes you end up having to invest alot more money to bring the business back into modern standards/profitability

its like real estate.. many people that do them lotteries where the lottery commission award a house. the recipient then cant afford the legal fee's taxes and modernisations to make it fit to break even/profit. yep alot of people end up just selling the house/business because managing it to make it valuable is too much cost/effort. so they sell it to pass the problem onto someone else. sometimes selling it below value just to get rid of the problem

This one is right, a business doesn't really mean anything at all, you may make a lot of money and I mean like millions one year, and then be bankrupted and close shop next year and we have absolutely no proof that would change at all. I believe that the best thing to do right now would be making sure that we are dealing with something that is guaranteed.

Like a house for example, a house is always a house, it's a house when there is inflation, it's a house when there is an recession, it's a house when you are rich or poor. That's just one example, bitcoin is the answer for me, I would love to get it all in bitcoin because I trust it more than anything else, but that doesn't mean I am right, it just means that is what I would prefer.

[franky1]

Like a house for example, a house is always a house, it's a house when there is inflation, it's a house when there is an recession, it's a house when you are rich or poor. That's just one example, bitcoin is the answer for me, I would love to get it all in bitcoin because I trust it more than anything else, but that doesn't mean I am right, it just means that is what I would prefer.

a house is a house until its condemned by the state, or its part of a HOA that have maintenance costs which if you dont keep it presentable they can take you to court and put a lien on the house and take it. or if you dont pay the land tax. or there is a storm that damages the house

even a house is not guaranteed profit, as it has ongoing costs. many people tht win a house in a lotto then cant afford the up-keep costs so end up quick selling below value