What if Bitcoin ETF is not Approved

[RioBlemz]

Who cares with Bitcoin ETF, either it's accepted or not, there's no reason to buy Bitcoin ETF since it just an IOU.

However, from now till 2026 will be promising for BTC as there would be favorable outcome..

Why it must be 2026? do you think Bitcoin went to $0 in 2027?

Bitcoin price will keep rising in long term, sudden dump or bear season is inevitable, but that doesn't enough to stop Bitcoin to rise and break new ATH.

We care if Bitcoin ETF is accepted. I made a post concerning the timing of event which I would like you read;
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5474531.msg63178407#msg63178407

Why 2026? I have put into consideration several factor. One major factor is the Halving and another is the Bull run. There have to be a gap for possible eventuality.
I agree with you that Bitcoin prize will keep rising in a long run.

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[mindrust]

Hopefully it won’t get approved. Institutionalized bitcoin will be useless to the masses. It will be censored and fully KYC’ed which is no different than the CBDC’s. Bitcoin should be censorship-free and provide some privacy. If these features are removed from btc, it will be just another government currency. I don’t care about the price. You can’t name a price for freedom.

[LogitechMouse]

3 words. IT'S A DISASTER!!!!. Just Kidding.
The question is "What are the chances of the SEC rejecting a spot Bitcoin ETF next year?" The answer is low to zero percent chance.

When they accept even just one of those Spot Bitcoin ETFs, it will create a domino effect and other Bitcoin ETFs will be accepted in the future as well. I also believe that there will be one or more that will be accepted next year, and I don't see any reason why they will not. A Spot Bitcoin ETF will be a catalyst towards Bitcoin's price going even higher. The question now is what are the benefits of a Spot Bitcoin ETF to us investors? Or we will see more negative than positive effects of it?

I don't care about the Spot Bitcoin ETF getting either accepted or rejected, but I only care about the price of Bitcoin.

[LDL]

Bitcoin doesn't care bitcoin ETF approvals.
SEC has set several date deadlines for Bitcoin ETF approval but has not yet approved Bitcoin ETFs. The SEC has taken January 10th as the last date. If this date fails for any reason, then whether Bitcoin ETF is approved or not, Bitcoin will not have any impact on this matter. Whether an ETF exists or not, Bitcoin ETFs and the SEC's various lawsuits on the price of Bitcoin cannot influence Bitcoin.
But no matter how much the SEC talks about the Bitcoin Spot ETF, the Bitcoin ETF will most likely be approved by the beginning of the new year. No matter how many negative thoughts we think Bitcoin ETF approval or not Bitcoin is likely to hit 100k after the next halving.

[Die_empty]

Bitcoin doesn't care bitcoin ETF approvals.
SEC has set several date deadlines for Bitcoin ETF approval but has not yet approved Bitcoin ETFs. The SEC has taken January 10th as the last date. If this date fails for any reason, then whether Bitcoin ETF is approved or not, Bitcoin will not have any impact on this matter. Whether an ETF exists or not, Bitcoin ETFs and the SEC's various lawsuits on the price of Bitcoin cannot influence Bitcoin.
But no matter how much the SEC talks about the Bitcoin Spot ETF, the Bitcoin ETF will most likely be approved by the beginning of the new year. No matter how many negative thoughts we think Bitcoin ETF approval or not Bitcoin is likely to hit 100k after the next halving.

It was not the SEC that picked January 10th, it is the law that gave the deadline for the approval or disapproval of ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF. Other deadlines for the other applicants will be based on the timeline of their application. But I also have the same mindset that disapproval of the application might not have any major effect on Bitcoin, although the price might temporarily drop slightly. However, approval might take the price to ATH, especially since it might coincide with the Bitcoin halving. The only thing we have to do now is to wait and see what will be the decision of Gary Gensler and the other decision-makers.      

[MFahad]

Bitcoin doesn't care bitcoin ETF approvals.
SEC has set several date deadlines for Bitcoin ETF approval but has not yet approved Bitcoin ETFs. The SEC has taken January 10th as the last date. If this date fails for any reason, then whether Bitcoin ETF is approved or not, Bitcoin will not have any impact on this matter. Whether an ETF exists or not, Bitcoin ETFs and the SEC's various lawsuits on the price of Bitcoin cannot influence Bitcoin.
But no matter how much the SEC talks about the Bitcoin Spot ETF, the Bitcoin ETF will most likely be approved by the beginning of the new year. No matter how many negative thoughts we think Bitcoin ETF approval or not Bitcoin is likely to hit 100k after the next halving.

Bitcoin and ETF are now so closely related that if there is any negative news, it will definitely affect the price of Bitcoin. There are high chances of ETF approval by January 10, but the SEC may delay it further. Even if this issue is delayed for two to four months, the chances of Bitcoin price falling are still high, because just a day ago, a fake news was spread that the approval of ETF is not possible due to which The price suddenly dropped from $45k to $40.7k.

When a fake news can dump the price of Bitcoin to around $5000, what is the impact if it actually gets rejected? It is by no means intended that this effect will last very long, but temporarily, it may drop the price of Bitcoin. As for the bull season after that, the price of bitcoin will definitely go to its all-time high after the halving. For now, whatever decision the SEC makes regarding the Bitcoin ETF will definitely affect the price of Bitcoin.

[kojektea]

For this year I think it has too much influence on the positive crypto trend. the reason is because this year the main course of the positive trend is the halving 2024. meaning the ETF will be number 2 after that if it is rejected maybe bitcoin will experience a slight decline but not badly I have seen this even in 2023 they have not approved a bitcoin ETF but bitcoin remains solid, what if the halving will become an explosive trend, maybe the Bitcoin ETF won't see the effect.

[gunhell16]

What if Bitcoin ETF is not Approved

Whereas optimism is high as regards the approval of Bitcoin ETF which could be a milestone for investor to come in. Bitcoin topped $42,000 in December 2023 and the yearly gain compared from 2021 to date is 160%. One major factor at play was the hope to list Bitcoin ETF which is a very progressive discussion between the Asset managers and the Securities and exchange commissions.

When we plan we plan for possible eventuality and please do not consider this negative bias. Wisdom Tree, BlackRock etc. has meet the criterial as said and are waiting for a positive signal. Should we bank on it. The question is still pondering in my mind if it doesn't go as suggested or the approval is denied what then happens?

I can only see a sudden fall if Bitcoin ETF is not approved and you may as well add your input on this. However, from now till 2026 will be promising for BTC as there would be favorable outcome. It is a game of patience.

The question is: what is the reason for the fall of Bitcoin? Because when it was Matrixport's report that the SEC would reject all spot bitcoin ETFs, they agreed with their interview. Well, the report they made is actually contradictory. Why?Because on January 2, 2024, they said, "Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Is Imminent, Btc to Jump to $50,000." Then they followed up with a report again on the same day and date, saying in their report, "Why will the SEC reject Bitcoin sport ETF's again?".

But K33 Research Senior Analyst believes that it is not because of the flash crash report but because of overleveraging in the market. Because the funding rates and future premiums have gone up by 50%, So the report only served as a catalyst to wash out the overleverage of the long position, so the price dropped almost 10%, so many liquidated.

And many analysts are against Matrixport's report because it is unlikely that the SEC will approve the bitcoin spot ETF because the SEC will be sued if they reject it.

[BitcoinsGreat]

And many analysts are against Matrixport's report because it is unlikely that the SEC will approve the bitcoin spot ETF because the SEC will be sued if they reject it.

Let's go for the worst case scenario and in that, the EFT is rejected or delayed. Then what will happen?

For the time being the bitcoin will dump but it won't be the end of bitcoin. We will still have halving, and we will still see the Bitcoin all time high and the bull run. Previously bitcoin was performing well with ETF and it will continue doing so. So for the Bitcoin community, denying ETF does affect much.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

And many analysts are against Matrixport's report because it is unlikely that the SEC will approve the bitcoin spot ETF because the SEC will be sued if they reject it.

Let's go for the worst case scenario and in that, the EFT is rejected or delayed. Then what will happen?

For the time being the bitcoin will dump but it won't be the end of bitcoin. We will still have halving, and we will still see the Bitcoin all time high and the bull run. Previously bitcoin was performing well with ETF and it will continue doing so. So for the Bitcoin community, denying ETF does affect much.

Nothing will happen. There will be some panic sells, as usual, that's it.
Bitcoin never depended on this ETF stuff, and it never will be. Sure it's a setback but that's it. We have seen so many setbacks and btc always recovered, that's the way this business works.

I don't see why the halving is a thing to look forward to, it's not gonna be the saviour if ETF fails.

Bitcoin is here to stay, ETF or not.

[Churchillvv]

I'm still surprised to see people say what if? whether is approved or not bitcoin itself is always fine with or without every other features that can help in increasing the price.

in as much as we want it approved doesn't mean if it goes side ways Bitcoin won't survive it has been in existence without the ETF so it's just an additional benefits for us.

Though if the ETF is not approved there will surely be a decrease in price for a while but after then it will bounce back to normal.

[Cryptomultiplier]

If Bitcoin ETF isn't approved, I doubt it would do much to affect the adoption or implementation of its programs already set aside like the halving set to happen soonest this year 2024.
The ETF is an investment fund that tracks the price of Bitcoin and as such it is a step closer to the actualization of making BTC a currency that is tradable, just like forex is. The price currently would drop if it isn't approved but it doesn't stop BTC from existing or having more users.
What do I know, we just got to observe how it plays out first.

[AicecreaME]

Bitcoin ETF is always been denied for so many times already, so I wouldn't be surprised if it is going to be denied again this year.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin will always be the same, it will dump but it is normal and another opportunity to buy even more for long term investment. It's the same situation as always, people will doubt bitcoin, spreading FUDs saying Bitcoin's price will go to zero, etc. And for those who really know how cryptocurrency works, it's a gift to make more profits in the long run.

[2Pizza410000BTC]

What if Bitcoin ETF is not Approved

The question is still pondering in my mind if it doesn't go as suggested or the approval is denied what then happens?

I can only see a sudden fall if Bitcoin ETF is not approved and you may as well add your input on this. However, from now till 2026 will be promising for BTC as there would be favorable outcome. It is a game of patience.

If Bitcoin ETF are not approved, there may be some dumping in the market. Fake Bitcoin ETF are completely dramatic. There is probably a hearing on January 10th, I think Bitcoin ETF will not be approved at this hearing. But I am not at all worried about Bitcoin ETF because if ETF are not approved there will not be much dumping in the market and even if there is more dumping it will be very beneficial for long term investors as they will be able to hold on to the Bitcoin investment.

[Slow death]

It is true that many people bought more bitcoins because they heard the news about ETF, so many people placed high expectations on this ETF and if it is not approved, I see the price dropping below $30,000, but after April the price will start recovering, this is because historically whenever there is a Bitcoin halving in the following months the price rises a lot, sometimes as it approaches the day of the halving the price has recovered, only to increase a lot after the halving, which is why even if the ETF does not is approved and the price drops a lot, yet in the coming months we will see a large price increase.

This issue about the bitcoin ETF is starting to reach a very scary level in terms of predictions and thanks to this the price has fallen a lot and then recovered, for example what happened a few days ago when a certain company said they would not approve the ETF and this caused the price to fall from $45,700 to $40,700 in a few hours, and the price only recovered when the same company went public with its retraction. But the damage caused by the press has already been done. Today I read this news:

‘Rumor mill’ goes into overdrive for a spot Bitcoin ETF approval on Friday

Several tweets on Crypto X have fueled hopes that a spot Bitcoin ETF could be approved on Friday, though some analysts don’t think it will happen so soon.

Speculation that the SEC is set to approve a spot Bitcoin

exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Friday has reached a fever pitch on social media.

A tweet from Grayscale’s legal chief that he was “just filling out some forms,” in addition to a widely shared tweet from a reporter, has fueled speculation that approval could come through within the next day.

Several analysts still expect potential approvals to come next week, however.

In a Jan. 4 post on X (formerly Twitter), TechCrunch reporter Jacquelyn Melinek cited sources “extremely close to the matter” to suggest multiple ETFs would be approved and is “expecting something tomorrow.”

source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/rumor-mill-heats-hopes-spot-bitcoin-etf-approval-tomorrow

every person is trying to predict whether or not it will be approved and this is also because these analysts want to gain more attention. but when you look at the chart:



It's a sign of what's to be expected if a Bitcoin ETF isn't approved

[EarnOnVictor]

Who cares with Bitcoin ETF, either it's accepted or not, there's no reason to buy Bitcoin ETF since it just an IOU.

However, from now till 2026 will be promising for BTC as there would be favorable outcome..

Why it must be 2026? do you think Bitcoin went to $0 in 2027?

Bitcoin price will keep rising in long term, sudden dump or bear season is inevitable, but that doesn't enough to stop Bitcoin to rise and break new ATH.

We care if Bitcoin ETF is accepted. I made a post concerning the timing of event which I would like you read;
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5474531.msg63178407#msg63178407

Why 2026? I have put into consideration several factor. One major factor is the Halving and another is the Bull run. There have to be a gap for possible eventuality.
I agree with you that Bitcoin prize will keep rising in a long run.

I think he meant the bull run continuation, but 2026 is not feasible for the continuation of that bull run judging by what has happened in the past. For those who are conversant with how Bitcoin has behaved in the past, there are bullish and bearish seasons and the bearish season is longer than the bullish season to the extent that the coin would seem forgotten before it comes back to life again. I expect this to continue but it will be safer if anyone holding Bitcoin can make a decision to liquidate in the first half of 2025. I do not think it can surpass that time.

But we should still engage our trading charts and other speculative means to ascertain what to do. Again, no matter what happens in the ETF saga, Bitcoin will live on. People are overrating the ETF of a thing and if eventually rejected, Bitcoin might only suffer some temporary setbacks and get to overcome it afterwards. Peradventure it is approved, it is still a win-win for the coin. Regardless, halving is another key player here that will bring back the needed FOMO to the market, and no matter what happens with news including the ETFs, Bitcoin will still find its way up over time.

[Altryist]

I think he meant the bull run continuation, but 2026 is not feasible for the continuation of that bull run judging by what has happened in the past. For those who are conversant with how Bitcoin has behaved in the past, there are bullish and bearish seasons and the bearish season is longer than the bullish season to the extent that the coin would seem forgotten before it comes back to life again. I expect this to continue but it will be safer if anyone holding Bitcoin can make a decision to liquidate in the first half of 2025. I do not think it can surpass that time.

But we should still engage our trading charts and other speculative means to ascertain what to do. Again, no matter what happens in the ETF saga, Bitcoin will live on. People are overrating the ETF of a thing and if eventually rejected, Bitcoin might only suffer some temporary setbacks and get to overcome it afterwards. Peradventure it is approved, it is still a win-win for the coin. Regardless, halving is another key player here that will bring back the needed FOMO to the market, and no matter what happens with news including the ETFs, Bitcoin will still find its way up over time.

In this case, the ETF is used as a manipulative tool, we saw this very clearly from the beginning of the year, when the news first gave Bitcoin an impetus for growth, and then caused a decline. This was all done through manipulation in anticipation of the ETF, and it is obvious that this is not the last attempt by manipulators to make money in this way.
If the ETF is not approved, then they will simply continue to play on this, new applications will be submitted again, new approval dates will be announced, maybe they will shift it somewhere after the halving, or somewhere else.

[DooMAD]

Hopefully it won’t get approved. Institutionalized bitcoin will be useless to the masses. It will be censored and fully KYC’ed which is no different than the CBDC’s. Bitcoin should be censorship-free and provide some privacy. If these features are removed from btc, it will be just another government currency. I don’t care about the price. You can’t name a price for freedom.

It's reassuring to know I'm not the only one feeling this way.  Bollocks to the Wall Street and Hedge Fund crowd.  They don't matter.

Most of the hype is from people who care more about their fiat profits from trading than they do about the long-term future of Bitcoin.  I don't care in the slightest if they end up disappointed if the SEC end up doing the same thing they've done before and reject everything at the last minute.

[MFahad]

If Bitcoin ETF are not approved, there may be some dumping in the market. Fake Bitcoin ETF are completely dramatic. There is probably a hearing on January 10th, I think Bitcoin ETF will not be approved at this hearing. But I am not at all worried about Bitcoin ETF because if ETF are not approved there will not be much dumping in the market and even if there is more dumping it will be very beneficial for long term investors as they will be able to hold on to the Bitcoin investment.

It remains uncertain whether the Bitcoin ETF will be approved on January 10 or not. It can be approved and there is also an option to reject or delay it. In my opinion, if ratification doesn’t happen, it could significantly reduce the value of bitcoin. While this factor may not have a huge impact, but the market crash has been made worse by the hype it has been created in. However, you are right that if the market goes down here, it could be a long-term investment.

However, people who don’t have much capital to buy will prefer ETF approval. Some people won’t mind, but there will be plenty of people who aren’t prepared for this situation. Currently it is up to the SEC to approve or reject Bitcoin ETF.

[blckhawk]

There's still a reapplication right? If there is, then it's a good thing for many people in the bitcoin market because that means that you can still buy more bitcoin so you can get more profit because you've grown what you've accumulated so far, trust me that if I am right about the reapplication then that's a time extension for us. ETF approval seems to be delayed though which means that we can still buy more bitcoin if we have the ability to do so, don't forget to DCA though so you're making great value along the way.