What if Bitcoin ETF is not Approved

[Essential10]

This increased demand will likely drive up the price of Bitcoin, as more people will be interested in investing in anticipation of potential gains from affiliated ETF. If I follow the past, I can see that the value of Bitcoin has increased without the need for an ETF. Bitcoin price is driven by various factors including market demand, adoption and overall sentiment. While ETFs have the potential to attract novice and retail investors, they are not a prerequisite for Bitcoin's success. Temporarily allowing a Bitcoin ETF to facilitate profits, short-term, will further increase demand and potentially increase prices. But  Regardless of how the ETF issue progresses, I don't think ETFs will have any impact on Bitcoin in the long term.

[Odohu]

This news was 4 days ago: https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-spot-bitcoin-etf-updates-deadline

If you read the news and what has been happening before that time, you will know that United States SEC will approve bitcoin spot ETF in early 2024.

There is not need to discuss about if it will not be approved or not because it will be approved.

There are still areas that are not clear in the article. All the applicants had until December 29th to finalise their application but according to the article, none of them had an important part of the require as at 22nd December. See below:

“This is no easy last step, and may keep some from starting gate. AP agreement + cash creates = approval,” Balchunas wrote on X. As of Dec. 22, none of the spot Bitcoin ETF filers had the AP agreement in place, while seven firms switched the redemption model strictly to cash, according to Balchunas.

Hopefully before the deadline, some would have gotten the AP agreement in place. If that be the case, there are high chances of getting the ETF approval as expected.

[highalch]

In case of an ETF deny, retesting the 27K level is most likely. This is the price, from where the current bull market started. Not the local bottom, but we were in the 26-32k range for long.

Simply put: just another buying opportunity before the halving

[batang_bitcoin]

In case of an ETF deny, retesting the 27K level is most likely. This is the price, from where the current bull market started. Not the local bottom, but we were in the 26-32k range for long.

$27k is still high IMO and if it gets a retest there, that's fine and everyone is getting their chance to buy at a low price.

Simply put: just another buying opportunity before the halving

Definitely, that's what will happen when the ETF is gonna be declined and it's not even a huge problem for the long term holders here. We've got other hope on this bull run and that's the halving all of us have been waiting for.

[crwth]

Having this scenario, looming above our heads, it's definitely one of the key things that could shape different HODLers, especially the new ones, if they are paper hands or diamond hands type of thing. Because I know a lot of people wanting and hoping that they could "sell" at a higher price regrets when it came down but then regretted selling it, thinking that it wouldn't go up anymore.

It's more of a test towards people who really believes in BTC.

[BabyBandit]

What if Bitcoin ETF is not Approved

You seem to have forgotten that bitcoin never needed ETF to rise and it is not about to start now. The price has gone up 4 billion percent ever since the inception (from $0.001 to current $42k) and all that without ETF or any centralized crap like that.

Even if SEC were to reject ETF, it wouldn't have been the first time and nobody would care. The only thing that would have done was to scare some newbies to panic sell.

Exactly you nailed it.
It just that now days people are like zombie's they cant think for themself or act or do anything they have a mindset "I cant" so they just follow others all the time, it's weakness and sad.
Good statement and I agree. Bitcoin don't need this Trojan Horse ETF. Fuck them. Insecure people crypto is not for you, you should hire an assistant that do your life for you. Stop be weak, get strong.

[slaman29]

I can't believe people are still going on and on and on about ETFs. Do you guys realize it's been 5 years since ETFs started coming out and rejected? And did Bitcoin ever fail in all those times when ETFs got rejected?

In fact, did Bitcoin pump to 1 million whenever there WAS ETF approved?

So why are we still thinking so highly about these stuffs?

[anushkasachith888]

If the Bitcoin spot ETF is not approved, it could have a short-term bearish impact on the price of Bitcoin. Analysts anticipate cascading liquidations and a potential sharp drop in Bitcoin's price, possibly around 20% in the short term . However, it's important to note that Bitcoin's long-term investment case remains strong, and the absence of an ETF does not undermine its existence. The rejection of a spot ETF may necessitate a period of adjustment and realignment in the market, as it would need to decouple and forge a new narrative moving forward While the rejection of a spot ETF may have short-term implications, Bitcoin's resilience and long-term value proposition are not solely dependent on the approval of an ETF

[Hypnosis00]

What if? The growth of Bitcoin continues, yeah that's right.
I could see that ETF approval is just like a manipulation power of the market as it drags people to invest thinking that this would increase the price of Bitcoin. Yet, they never knew that it was not the only factor affecting the price increase and not only a reason for its continuous adoption but instead, it was because of its function in the crypto space.

If the SEC disapproved ETF, nothing change as people still buy Bitcoin and hold it.

[Mauser]

Though we are very hopeful that the spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved in the early stage of this year but should it not be approved then definitely, the price of Bitcoin will surely dip thereby giving some long term Bitcoin investors another edge to buy and hodl at a more lesser price after which the price will still skyrocket as a result of massive investors buying and Hodling at a cheaper rate so it's just a matter of time as patience is what is required before a favourable result can be ascertained.

Moreover, Bitcoin have stood the test of time without spot ETF approval considering when it was introduced till this time so if it's been disapproved, then the only investors that will be afraid is new investors that haven't hodl for a long time or just want to hodl for a short while as they might try to sell off their coins because of fear of a dip, while it will be a welcome development for long time investors to still continue to accumulate in a more considerate price.
So definitely with time the price is still gonna skyrocket because of high quest to acquire more Bitcoin by long term investors and some investors that have been waiting for a dip before they accumulate.

I agree with you that the short term price impact on bitcoins, if the ETFs are not being approved, should be negative and some investors might lose their motivation to stay in the crypto markets for the near future. However, long term I don't think this going to have an serious impact on the bitcoin price. First of all, just because the ETFs won't be approved doesn't mean they don't come at a later stage. It could just take a few more years for all the big ETF companies creating their own crypto departments. Secondly, investors who are looking for exposure to bitcoins are not going away. If the investors can't buy ETFs, they can still buy coins directly. I would expect to see a rise of spot investors to buy the coins the ETF companies would have bought. The long term trend for Bitcoin is going to remain positive and investors will use other forms of investment to get their desired exposure. 

[MusaMohamed]

I agree with you that the short term price impact on bitcoins, if the ETFs are not being approved, should be negative and some investors might lose their motivation to stay in the crypto markets for the near future. However, long term I don't think this going to have an serious impact on the bitcoin price.

The Bitcoin market was manipulated a lot with news about Bitcoin Spot ETFs and many reports that this time, SEC. will approve Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the USA. With this belief, people think that it will bring massive new capital into Bitcoin market because USA. is a biggest economy.

If SEC.'s decision is different, the market will be affected, very pessimistic when the news is announced by SEC.

First of all, just because the ETFs won't be approved doesn't mean they don't come at a later stage. It could just take a few more years for all the big ETF companies creating their own crypto departments. Secondly, investors who are looking for exposure to bitcoins are not going away. If the investors can't buy ETFs, they can still buy coins directly. I would expect to see a rise of spot investors to buy the coins the ETF companies would have bought. The long term trend for Bitcoin is going to remain positive and investors will use other forms of investment to get their desired exposure. 

However, it is big short term effect. In long term, Bitcoin will continue its growth to a time we will have Bitcoin Spot ETFs in USA.

Actualy Bitcoin investors must do their research about it and will not lose their belief in future of Bitcoin only because SEC's denial on all Bitcoin Spot ETF applications.

[Rabata]

I can only see a sudden fall if Bitcoin ETF is not approved and you may as well add your input on this. However, from now till 2026 will be promising for BTC as there would be favorable outcome. It is a game of patience.

If ETF is not approved, the price may drop temporarily but it will not last long. Bitcoin price has not increased since 2021 but will halve this year due to which BTC price will increase. The halving is only 3 months away and before that, several major US investment platforms are waiting for Bitcoin ETF approval. Many big companies have approached the SEC and they are confident that the SEC will give ETF approval to those companies even if it takes time. If approved then halving will take Bitcoin's ATH to a larger level and if not then naturally Bitcoin will exceed its prior ATH. If bitcoin is approved then good but if not don't be disappointed. Because Bitcoin doesn't depend on ETFs.

[Smack That Ace]

I can't believe people are still going on and on and on about ETFs. Do you guys realize it's been 5 years since ETFs started coming out and rejected? And did Bitcoin ever fail in all those times when ETFs got rejected?

In fact, did Bitcoin pump to 1 million whenever there WAS ETF approved?

So why are we still thinking so highly about these stuffs?

What you say is not wrong, without ETF, bitcoin would continue to grow and increase in price over time and that has been proven over the years. But we can't deny the influence ETFs have on bitcoin in the short term, so it's no surprise that many people are still interested in whether ETFs will be approved or not. We are approaching another bull season, and if ETFs are approved, it could also be a significant catalyst to create a super bull cycle for bitcoin. The last thing people care about is the bull season and the rise in bitcoin's price, not the ETFs.

[vitya1982]

Nothing too bad won't happen if ETF isn't accepted. I don't think that BTC will drop to $20,000 or below again. Simply nothing will change for us.

[criptoevangelista]

I don't believe it won't be approved, but let's consider this hypothesis.

What would happen is that everything would continue as it always has been, but the volatility would take much longer to stabilize. I say this because, when more people participate in a financial market, the more stable it becomes over time.

ETF not being approved, we would continue to see volatility for many more cycles. Everything has its good side and its bad side.

I'm not complaining about the volatility, it's great and I really like it! volatility is something extremely valuable for those who know how to use it correctly

[Yamifoud]

If it gets no approval from the SEC, there is a reason for that but also, we have a reason to stay buying, holding, and trading Bitcoin despite disapproval. The fact that we are not reliant on ETF approval, Bitcoin transactions in or out continue and remain outstanding.

But the talks about approval have already been made early this year, maybe we just wait for the exact date of it. Maybe it was exciting but honestly, I was even more excited about the impact of halving than this.
Therefore, we have to stop making assumptions - what if because at the end of the day, our crypto life continues.

[eightdots]

If it gets no approval from the SEC, there is a reason for that but also, we have a reason to stay buying, holding, and trading Bitcoin despite disapproval. The fact that we are not reliant on ETF approval, Bitcoin transactions in or out continue and remain outstanding.

But the talks about approval have already been made early this year, maybe we just wait for the exact date of it. Maybe it was exciting but honestly, I was even more excited about the impact of halving than this.
Therefore, we have to stop making assumptions - what if because at the end of the day, our crypto life continues.

What you said is a summary of the situation we are in right now. If the ETF is not approved, we will continue to buy, trade and hold Bitcoin for a long time, as always. Our days will be spent with Bitcoin and we will continue to do so. If the ETF is approved and the price starts to increase, which I think there is no guarantee it will increase, we will still choose to accumulate Bitcoin or take some profit if it comes to the price we want. ETF is not a deciding factor for me.

As you said, Halving excites me more and shows that the bull season will come at the end of Bitcoin cycles. I'm more interested in this. I prefer not to deal with the market's preoccupation with the ETF and the disappointment that would ensue if the ETF is not approved.

[Z390]

The worst that could happen is temporary price tetracement and things will return back to normal after a while, and also those who have been waiting for some pull back will finally be able to buy some Bitcoin for lesser amount.

I don't let this bother me at all, because Bitcoin have already won it's biggest war years ago, the only way it can be defeated is making people to stop using or adopting Bitcoin and since no one can control the mind of all human in the future world it's impossible to stop Bitcoin.

[franky1]

The worst that could happen is temporary price retracement

you call that worse thing?
i call it discount opportunity to buy more before 2025 ATH

I don't let this bother me at all, because Bitcoin have already won it's biggest war years ago, the only way it can be defeated is making people to stop using or adopting Bitcoin and since no one can control the mind of all human in the future world it's impossible to stop Bitcoin.

have you not read the sponsored dev politics of wanting people to lock up value with middle men and off ramp utility to other systems/subnetworks

core are the central point of failure of the direction bitcoin users follow.. they named the brand core(center) for a reason, and it sure aint in their plans to scale bitcoin onchain to allow more genuine bitcoin transaction count utility onchain

[EluguHcman]

If the ETH is not approved yet as expected, I don't still see any potential lost in the Bitcoin. The state of Bitcoin rate according to its volatilities still maintains the potentialities nature of cryptocurrencies and yeah, it is still profitable pending on investors who are accumulating and tends to sell.