Bitcoin's function 5, 10, 20 years from now

[jaydee3839]

I'm wondering what people on here, think/hope Bitcoin to be in the near to mid-term future, let's say in the next 5,10,20 years (pick one time horizon).  Not the price, but it's role in everyday life (be it, in the U.S., developed nations in general, or globally).  Further, what roadblocks are in the way currently that has to be cleared to get to there?

I want to leave this very open-ended and hear the thoughts of the very smart people here. 

[tbct_mt2]

I see Bitcoin is already matured enough and people already used it a lot in society.

There are open spaces for Bitcoin to grow more with more chances to invade deeper in society if regulations will not become barriers for it. It is not coincidence that people in the market are very fomo and speculative that if SEC. approve Bitcoin Spot ETFs in 2024, Bitcoin will have massive growth like after Gold ETF was approved about 20 years ago.

Did you read this book?
The bullish case for Bitcoin.

You can read it online with above link but if you love paper book, you can order and buy it on Amazon.
https://www.amazon.com/Bullish-Case-Bitcoin-Vijay-Boyapati/dp/1737204118

[jaydee3839]

I see Bitcoin is already matured enough and people already used it a lot in society.

There are open spaces for Bitcoin to grow more with more chances to invade deeper in society if regulations will not become barriers for it. It is not coincidence that people in the market are very fomo and speculative that if SEC. approve Bitcoin Spot ETFs in 2024, Bitcoin will have massive growth like after Gold ETF was approved about 20 years ago.

Did you read this book?
The bullish case for Bitcoin.

You can read it online with above link but if you love paper book, you can order and buy it on Amazon.
https://www.amazon.com/Bullish-Case-Bitcoin-Vijay-Boyapati/dp/1737204118

I skimmed it.  Feels more of a philosophical appeal than practical (short of the examples of hyperinflation and fleeing across borders).

I guess I'm more thinking of the non-extreme cases like above (highly unlikely use case for developed nations).  Namely, what do you think of it, not as ETF or investment, rather as a medium for exchange in everyday life, in side-by-side existence with the USD or EUR for instance.

BTC as an investment feels empty to me, unless it has a strong functional case as an actual currency.

[Darker45]

5 years from, I think nothing much will change. Perhaps the only big thing is that it is already embraced by banks, wealth managers, investment companies, and other traditional finance players.

As far as everyday life is concerned, I think Bitcoin will become more acceptable in stores, shops, restaurants, hotels, and so on, whether through an online transaction or not. But I think Bitcoin will remain to be the least option as payment. Cash, cards, and other payment modes will probably remain as the top options.

It seems to me that Bitcoin is more inclined to grow as an asset class than as a currency, although I'm also seeing Bitcoin as the top choice in the coming decades as far as transferring huge value across borders is concerned.

[tbct_mt2]

I guess I'm more thinking of the non-extreme cases like above (highly unlikely use case for developed nations).  Namely, what do you think of it, not as ETF or investment, rather as a medium for exchange in everyday life, in side-by-side existence with the USD or EUR for instance.

BTC as an investment feels empty to me, unless it has a strong functional case as an actual currency.

If Bitcoin is nothing as an investment, it is like it has no value.

If it has no value, it can not be used as a medium of exchange daily because nobody will want to make a trade deal and in return, will receive something that has no value. If you want it to be used more, it must has value as a mandatory condition.

It can be used globally, cross borders, cross nations now but as a currency for daily fund transfer, for everyone, it is not for now because of mempool congestion and very costly transaction fee for small value transaction.

If you want to move a big fund, Bitcoin blockchain is for you, because transaction fee will not be your issue and transactions on Bitcoin blockchain is much safer than bank transfer.

By big fund, I meant $10,000+

How many Bitcoin confirmations is enough?

1 confirmation: sufficient for small payments less than $1,000.

3 confirmations: for payments $1,000 - $10,000. Most exchanges require 3 confirmations for deposits.

6 confirmations: good for large payments between $10,000 - $1,000,000. Six is standard for most transactions to be considered secure.

10 confirmations: suggested for large payments greater than $1,000,000.

[jaydee3839]

I guess I'm more thinking of the non-extreme cases like above (highly unlikely use case for developed nations).  Namely, what do you think of it, not as ETF or investment, rather as a medium for exchange in everyday life, in side-by-side existence with the USD or EUR for instance.

BTC as an investment feels empty to me, unless it has a strong functional case as an actual currency.

If Bitcoin is nothing as an investment, it is like it has no value.

If it has no value, it can not be used as a medium of exchange daily because nobody will want to make a trade deal and in return, will receive something that has no value. If you want it to be used more, it must has value as a mandatory condition.

Of course.  I'm saying that I can't see it as an investment/store-of-value in and of itself, divorced from it's utility as a means of exchange.  Whether its first valuable asset, then thereby usable for exchanges or vice-versa is academic.

If you want to move a big fund, Bitcoin blockchain is for you, because transaction fee will not be your issue and transactions on Bitcoin blockchain is much safer than bank transfer.

This is getting more to the crux of it.  How quantifiably "unsafe" is a bank transfer (now and in the future)?  I understand the argument for having lower transaction costs and much faster, but safety isn't nearly as intuitive to me.  Unless by safety you're referring to potential freezing of an account if flagged as suspicious by gov't?

Further, if BTC is the better method of payment for the $10k+ transfers, then what is holding it back from being more mainstream now, and what needs to take place to unlock this?  I appreciate your thoughts.

[jaydee3839]

5 years from, I think nothing much will change. Perhaps the only big thing is that it is already embraced by banks, wealth managers, investment companies, and other traditional finance players.

As far as everyday life is concerned, I think Bitcoin will become more acceptable in stores, shops, restaurants, hotels, and so on, whether through an online transaction or not. But I think Bitcoin will remain to be the least option as payment. Cash, cards, and other payment modes will probably remain as the top options.

It seems to me that Bitcoin is more inclined to grow as an asset class than as a currency, although I'm also seeing Bitcoin as the top choice in the coming decades as far as transferring huge value across borders is concerned.

What do you see as the driving force for increased adoption for stores, restaurants, etc?  Any particular event (technologically or legislatively, or ?) driving a sudden spike, or just more institutions slowing coming aboard slowly over time?

[so98nn]

Bitcoin has defined function of transferring value from one address to another address. Have its conformity on public ledger with decentralisation power. 

I see no other use of Bitcoin other than that. We cant stretch it to do something else other than this. Plus the entire world already knows what it is used for. Max, peeps will find it as store value which they are already using for. So from the list we already have Bitcoin as transacting currency, a store asset, and something that we can posses out of passion.

The only thing anyone would want in next 20 years is, its full scale adoption and lower fees.

[tbct_mt2]

This is getting more to the crux of it.  How quantifiably "unsafe" is a bank transfer (now and in the future)? 

It starts instantly when you put your money in bank account.

You don't have any key to your money after depositing it to a bank. It's not your keys, not your money. It's not your keys, it's not your bitcoins.

With Bitcoin, if you use a non custodial wallet, you have private key, and you have your bitcoin.

It does not need to make a bank transfer to see it is less safe than Bitcoin blockchain, Bitcoin wallet and Bitcoin transaction.
Reminder: do not keep your money in online accounts

[Plaguedeath]

Bitcoin will never change, what you see Bitcoin right now, it will be same in the next 5, 10, 20 years. It's a P2P currency, you can use to make a payment or as a store of value due to the price that keep rising.

Since the government always try to tightening the KYC rules, I'm speculating:

In the next 5 years, mixers will be declared as illegal tool regardless it's legit or scam.
In the next 10 years, the government will crackdown No KYC P2P and DEX, forcing every sites to ask KYC.
In the next 20 years, most of coins are identifiable; the government and CEX know which person owns which address and how much the coins he have.

[Hatchy]

I'm wondering what people on here, think/hope Bitcoin to be in the near to mid-term future, let's say in the next 5,10,20 years (pick one time horizon).

In the next 5 years, not much will really change for Bitcoin, things will be pretty similar to how they are now. However, in 10 years, more countries might realize why making Bitcoin an official currency is a good idea, allowing their people to use it. Looking ahead 20 years, Bitcoin's price is expected to go up significantly, possibly staying above the $100k range. During this time and beyond, many folks might prefer using Bitcoin as a way to store value and cross-border payments method, because it would become a more valuable asset, and people wouldn't be keen on selling it.

In the next 5 years, mixers will be declared as illegal tool regardless it's legit or scam.
In the next 10 years, the government will crackdown No KYC P2P and DEX, forcing every sites to ask KYC.
In the next 20 years, most of coins are identifiable; the government and CEX know which person owns which address and how much the coins he have.

I totally agree with you mate. Mixers used to be a way to amp up Bitcoin's privacy, but lately, they've kind of turned into a hub for shady activities. With all these new mixers popping up, a good chunk of them might be set up by criminals trying to cover their tracks. So, in the next 5-10 years, mixers might just fade away and be labeled as illegal.

And about KYC, that's already happening. Think about it – how many non-KYC exchanges do we have now compared to before? Not as many. Many of these no-KYC platforms are facing pressure from government bodies, making them adopt KYC or lose access to services. It looks like privacy might take a hit, and we could end up losing some key Bitcoin features soon.

[thecodebear]

5 years:
5 years not much changed. Bitcoin accepted a bit more in the finance world, probably by then major nations will have figured out regulations for the industry. But even with greater public and finance participation in bitcoin ownership it'll still be seen as a fringe thing and most people still won't know what it is or will have negative views about it from misinformation.


10 years:
10 years I think we'll be in the early stages of bitcoin being normalized. I think it'll be seen as a more normal investment than it is today, more accepted as something that normal people own. Probably be pretty normal for big corporations to own some bitcoin on the books, and probably be pretty normalized in the finance world, sorta similar to owning the stock of a major company. By now I think the common belief that bitcoin was a bubble that burst (which resets and repeats in people's minds every four years) will start going away and people will start accepting that Bitcoin isn't disappearing and it was a bubble that burst. And while I think actually daily usage of bitcoin to buy stuff will still be quite low I think the option will start being there. I could see major retailers having a pay with bitcoin option by this point, I just don't expect it to be a big draw for consumers by this time.


20 years:
20 years from now bitcoin will likely be over a million dollars, having cemented its place as the most valuable single asset in the world, above gold's value. This will help further normalize it as something that isn't going to go away and is a regular part of the financial world. I'd expect by this point saving or investing with bitcoin will be completely normalized. No one will bat an eye when someone says the own bitcoin or bitcoin is their savings.

I think buying things with bitcoin will start becoming somewhat common by this point as well. LN or other L2 payment solutions as well as custodied services provided by companies will be what the average person uses for bitcoin transactions. It'll just be one more regular payment option alongside stuff like apple pay, google play, credit/debit card, paypal, etc, taking up a small amount of daily transactions among the part of the population that owns bitcoin. By this point El Salvador and MicroStrategy will have gone down in history as the pioneering nation and company that adopted Bitcoin way before any other nation or company was smart enough to do it, and by this time it'll be widely accepted those have both been huge success stories and specifically El Salvador leading the way for nations will have led to numerous other nations by the point having added some Bitcoin to their national holdings. Maybe even some economically major nations like the US will have started holding some Bitcoin by this point.

I think maybe by this point also the uninformed stigma of bitcoin mining will also have dissipated as mining has settled into the highly efficient role of operating at power plants to use excess clean power while strengthening the energy industry, as well as stranded clean power. People will finally have gotten over the idea that bitcoin using energy is bad and accept it the way they already accept energy use for any other thing.

One interesting speculation would be if the bitcoin ecosystem by this point will have evolved beyond savings and payments and if there is a wider array of applications tied to bitcoin, whether that is through "Web 5" or smart contracts build on L2/L3, or whatever. But I won't speculate on that possibility here.

[davis196]

I'm wondering what people on here, think/hope Bitcoin to be in the near to mid-term future, let's say in the next 5,10,20 years (pick one time horizon).  Not the price, but it's role in everyday life (be it, in the U.S., developed nations in general, or globally).  Further, what roadblocks are in the way currently that has to be cleared to get to there?

I want to leave this very open-ended and hear the thoughts of the very smart people here. 

The function/role of Bitcoin will remain the same even after 50 years(assuming that the human civilization still exists). Bitcoin is a store of value and a medium of exchange, just like any other currencies around the world. The problem is that almost nobody wants to use BTC as a medium of exchange, because everyone expects the price to go up in the future. Bitcoin might be dethroned by a better altcoin, that has cheaper and faster transactions(assuming that this altcoin will be secure and truly decentralized). That doesn't mean that the function of BTC will change.

[SamReomo]

The main roadblock in Bitcoin's way is the centralized system and the regulatory authorities because they want Bitcoin to be in their control and the ones who use Bitcoin for transactions should be monitored by them. This is the roadblock which's going to be a huge burden for the ones who want to use Bitcoin because of it's decentralized model and the privacy in mind but it's hard to evade this thing even in current dates when Bitcoin isn't regulated or centralized yet, and I hope it will somehow find a way to go through this roadblock if they don't suppress the community who believes in decentralization and privacy.

Another roadblock in Bitcoin's way of getting more success is the problem of ordinals that has been on the network for quite a time now. The ordinals are causing huge network congestion and due to that the fees of Bitcoin transactions are growing each hour. The developers are working to find a solution for the ordinals but they haven't got any success yet, however in future they may find a way to stop those ordinals and make Bitcoin network less congested again.

I would say that if those roadblocks won't stop Bitcoin from its growth then in 10 years we may see Bitcoin as a way of payment for all online stores like PayPal and it may work better than PayPal in most cases. In 20 years I believe most of the nations would accept Bitcoin as a way of payment and may implement it as reserve currency or allow it to be used as a secondary currency to their main fiat currency. I'm sure most of the countries may consider it as a reserve currency rather than a way of payment in 20 years. Who knows by then Bitcoin may no longer be as decentralized as it is in today's date and time.

[tabas]

IMHO, by that time there will more countries that will adopt it as their legal tender. The world is going to be open with its massive adoption and it is gonna be the one world currency that has been said with all of these conspiracies. Because of the division and disagreement of most countries not to rely to the other currency, this could be the medium for thei unison. We see that there are more countries ditching the US dollars for some reasons like BRICS and the other countries that are part of it. So if it is with its use case, definitely that there will be more people that will accept it. We are moving forward and not backwards. And if we are going to analyze the past years, there is a straight line where Bitcoin is going.

[Blitzboy]

I expect Bitcoin to become digital gold in 10 years. Scarcity and decentralization make it valuable despite criticism and disagreement. Roadblocks? Regulatory and mainstream acceptability are obstacles. However, they can be overcome. Governments and institutions are slowly realizing Bitcoin's potential, which will certainly continue.

I believe Bitcoin will become more than an investment. It will become more useful in international transactions and inflation hedges. Bitcoin enables a decentralized financial system even in stable developed nations. Its financial empowerment potential is immense.

Bitcoin is headed toward becoming a global store of wealth, regardless of the white paper's original objective. Though rocky, it will be a refuge for investors and a beacon of financial independence. Remember that major innovations often change course, and Bitcoin is no exception.

[0t3p0t]

In the future like10 years from now I can see Bitcoin could be used as an investment rather than using it for it's intended purpose. With institution's embracing Bitcoin as an investment, enthusiasts will soon forget that "Bitcoin is an innovative payment network and a new kind of money." as stated on it's website. Bitcoin's high transaction fee is not ideal for payment purposes so we might see Bitcoin as an Investment in the near future.

[criptoevangelista]

Even if bitcoin was not implemented as money in itself, but rather as a hedge, all the technology and revolution it brought to humanity is here to stay. This is one of bitcoin's greatest legacies.

I still believe that the future will be money without borders, I really want it to be bitcoin. But only time will tell.

[BlackHatCoiner]

It will become better, year by year. But, I think the current years are more crucial than after 2030. I believe we're in the middle of an S curve right now, where the development of both Bitcoin and lightning is pretty good, investors are seriously considering taking a piece of the pie. Regular people are not yet into it, as savings. This halving is going to make it even more scarce, as less bitcoin will enter the market.

I care about the next 6 years more than the 2030-2050 era, as it's the road to 2030 that will define the next ones.

[Zaguru12]

Bitcoin is a store of value and a medium of exchange, just like any other currencies around the world. The problem is that almost nobody wants to use BTC as a medium of exchange, because everyone expects the price to go up in the future. Bitcoin might be dethroned by a better altcoin, that has cheaper and faster transactions(assuming that this altcoin will be secure and truly decentralized). That doesn't mean that the function of BTC will change.

By dethrone you mean a bitcoin stepping down as the number one coin, seriously you might be right that bitcoin getting a competitor from an altcoin as a faster transaction coin could make the coin be favourite but i would say no,  no coin currently can over power bitcoin because of one thing which is total decentralization and having that speed transaction confirmation, the both just couldn’t happen together if not we would have seen it emerged. The one that comes close In having both qualities is monero, in fact monero seems to be almost more decentralized than bitcoin and what happens to its emergence? Government and exchanges treat it as a threat, that’s why others even in future wouldn’t flourish too.