2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[joker_josue]

Much like expensive wine, you do have a few clients for 50k bottles but no way Walmart is going to sell only bottles above 1000.

A good comparison for fees. I agree that the fee will not always stay high, the market will come to a point when it can no longer support this.

But, for me, the worst thing about Ordinals, besides raising rates, is causing clogging in the mempool, damaging the entire ecosystem, no matter if the fee is high or low.

[1714581175]

1714581175

[1714581175]

1714581175

[philipma1957]

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.
What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

Well my bad, sometimes I really forget that I need to add extra details when talking about something, In my mind I know I've said it before so I assume that everyone knows what I'm talking about!

I don't think ordinals will ever go away! EVER!
I think that as long as 1sat/vb will mean every guy in this universe with 4-5k to spare might want to inscribe his name to be there forever in one full block will be able to do it, and pretty cheaply considering the amount of people spend for shit around! So the spam will keep going at 1sat/vb, but I don't think it will manage to keep going for long at rates of 100sat/vb, since this will no longer imply some maniacs but an actual industry to support 1.5 mils and over a day.

Much like expensive wine, you do have a few clients for 50k bottles but no way Walmart is going to sell only bottles above 1000.

Also, real life is full of surprises, back in September I opened this topic:
When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations?
most were saying never, a long time, bla bla..
It hit 1sat on October 03, 2023.

Dif is still at 1.7%, halving in a day and a bit, price back up a bit.
Time to get the popcorn ready, place a few bets, and enjoy the shitshow

we will get some low fees.  the method i list for a big company means ordinal attacks are on and off.

and while we had 1 sat in oct 2023. we have over 3btc a block for most of dec and jan.

[philipma1957]

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.
What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

Well my bad, sometimes I really forget that I need to add extra details when talking about something, In my mind I know I've said it before so I assume that everyone knows what I'm talking about!

I don't think ordinals will ever go away! EVER!
I think that as long as 1sat/vb will mean every guy in this universe with 4-5k to spare might want to inscribe his name to be there forever in one full block will be able to do it, and pretty cheaply considering the amount of people spend for shit around! So the spam will keep going at 1sat/vb, but I don't think it will manage to keep going for long at rates of 100sat/vb, since this will no longer imply some maniacs but an actual industry to support 1.5 mils and over a day.

Much like expensive wine, you do have a few clients for 50k bottles but no way Walmart is going to sell only bottles above 1000.

Also, real life is full of surprises, back in September I opened this topic:
When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations?
most were saying never, a long time, bla bla..
It hit 1sat on October 03, 2023.

Dif is still at 1.7%, halving in a day and a bit, price back up a bit.
Time to get the popcorn ready, place a few bets, and enjoy the shitshow

we will get some low fees.  the method i list for a big company means ordinal attacks are on and off.

and while we had 1 sat in oct 2023. we have over 3btc a block for most of dec and jan.

tick tock

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   839923  (37 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.1596%  (1268 / 1241.20 expected, 26.8 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83126997340024.61                            
Current Difficulty:   86388558925171.02                            
Next Difficulty:   between 88038950002524 and 88308275794963
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.9104% and +2.2222%
Previous Retarget:   April 10, 2024 at 5:09 PM  (+3.9236%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 10:03 AM  (in 5d 2h 1m 52s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 11:02 AM  (in 5d 3h 0m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 53m 49s and 13d 17h 52m 29s

we are 77 from the ½ ing. 840,000 - 839,923 = 77

ugh

[mikeywith]

So viabtc mined the last block, Braiins pool mined the first one in this halving.

The current numbers are as follows:

Latest Block:
840003  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:
102.4057%  (1348 / 1316.33 expected, 31.67 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:
83126997340024.61                           
Current Difficulty:
86388558925171.02                           
Next Difficulty:
between 88279043830965 and 88517950821431
Next Difficulty Change:
between +2.1884% and +2.4649%
Previous Retarget:
April 10, 2024 at 11:09 PM  (+3.9236%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
Wednesday at 3:16 PM  (in 4d 12h 43m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):
Wednesday at 4:08 PM  (in 4d 13h 35m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 13d 16h 6m 23s and 13d 16h 58m 23s

Let's see how we do going forward, the ordinals folks are jamming the blockchain with fees up to 2500sat/vbyte, antpool just mined a 27btc block, so rewards are even greater than before the halving, this would likely stop difficulty from going down until Ordinals folks decide which block number is not worth much.

[joker_josue]

Let's see how we do going forward, the ordinals folks are jamming the blockchain with fees up to 2500sat/vbyte, antpool just mined a 27btc block, so rewards are even greater than before the halving, this would likely stop difficulty from going down until Ordinals folks decide which block number is not worth much.

The crowd went completely crazy! This will only make the market stop. I refer to the market, where the money comes from, because it becomes practically impossible to sell/buy BTC. Well, it's not impossible, but it's not very viable for lower amounts.

[mikeywith]

The crowd went completely crazy! This will only make the market stop. I refer to the market, where the money comes from, because it becomes practically impossible to sell/buy BTC. Well, it's not impossible, but it's not very viable for lower amounts.

Fees are hight due to Bitcoin Runes protocol, created by the same guy who invented Ordinals, it went live with the halving which is the reason why this happened.

Also, just like how things ended for Ordinals, I believe this hype will be short lived, when not enough people buy into it -- it will stop, greedy people are looking for ways to get rich overnight, some of them will, the majority will just lose money.

[joker_josue]

Fees are hight due to Bitcoin Runes protocol, created by the same guy who invented Ordinals, it went live with the halving which is the reason why this happened.

What protocol is this "Bitcoin Runes" and what does it do?
By the way, I had never heard of this protocol... But maybe I was the one who was distracted. 

[RickDeckard]

What protocol is this "Bitcoin Runes" and what does it do?
By the way, I had never heard of this protocol... But maybe I was the one who was distracted. 

It is another creation made by the same guy who created the concept of Ordinals - Casey Rodarmor. You can read about his idea of Runes in his own blog where he first posted about it[1]. While I had heard the concept, I haven't found the time to read his interpretation of why he thought that Ordinals and Rune were beneficial to the network.
[1]https://rodarmor.com/blog/runes/

[stompix]

So who had those on their Halving Bitcoin card:
- fees will reach 1000sat/vb
- mining income will be greater after the halving than before
- the hash rate will grow after the halving

This is so fucked up on so many levels.

What protocol is this "Bitcoin Runes" and what does it do?

It's a thing that was supposed to be more space friendly compared to brc-20, while keeping up the hype about it.
Of course, between supposed and hype madness there is a difference that you can see it live.

[joker_josue]

What protocol is this "Bitcoin Runes" and what does it do?
By the way, I had never heard of this protocol... But maybe I was the one who was distracted. 

It is another creation made by the same guy who created the concept of Ordinals - Casey Rodarmor. You can read about his idea of Runes in his own blog where he first posted about it[1]. While I had heard the concept, I haven't found the time to read his interpretation of why he thought that Ordinals and Rune were beneficial to the network.
[1]https://rodarmor.com/blog/runes/

Well, I only read a lot of it, but your first and last paragraphs say that "maybe it's not a good idea, as it could be misused". In short, he created something that the party, based on previous experience, would not have been very positive about.

But maybe I'm the one who understands little about the subject. 

[stompix]

I know, it's just a day, luck, random, all the stuff but still:

Latest Block:   840832  (12 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   104.8704%  (161 / 153.52 expected, 7.48 ahead)
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 5:45 PM  (+1.9859%)

Probably the last positive adjustment was not much of a surprise due to the fees, but another positive adjustment?
Or are we going to see it drop on the 1st as some will decide to cut power at the end of the month?

Viabtc still shows 9 cents but that won't as long as that's the average including that 1000BTC in extra fees in a day, bitinfo is quoting 0.0549 USD/THash.
So, is anyone betting on another positive adjustment?

[joker_josue]

Viabtc still shows 9 cents but that won't as long as that's the average including that 1000BTC in extra fees in a day, bitinfo is quoting 0.0549 USD/THash.
So, is anyone betting on another positive adjustment?

I would say that if the value of fees continues to fall, and remains at normal values - before the halving - the next update will be negative.

It was still positive, because it is packed with the high rates that occurred in the last week and because we are in the middle of the month - it is not worth turning off the machines in the middle of the month.

[philipma1957]

Viabtc still shows 9 cents but that won't as long as that's the average including that 1000BTC in extra fees in a day, bitinfo is quoting 0.0549 USD/THash.
So, is anyone betting on another positive adjustment?

I would say that if the value of fees continues to fall, and remains at normal values - before the halving - the next update will be negative.

It was still positive, because it is packed with the high rates that occurred in the last week and because we are in the middle of the month - it is not worth turning off the machines in the middle of the month.

well last ten block fees are

0.37
0.41
0.35
0.66
0.57
0.52
0.33
0.26
0.22
0.37



and viabtc is paying

0.0678 a th


if we drop to 0.05 a th the diff will tank

but at 0.0678

a s19 110th pro does $7.458 a day and burn $6.60 a day at 6 cents

all big miners are at 6 six cents or better

so they are fine unit payout drops to 0.05

that would do

$5.50 a day and burn $6.60 a day. this is on s19 pro 110th

now think of the t21

190 th x 0.05 =       $9.50
 92 kwatts x 0.06 = $5.52
                              4.00 profit if we drop to  5 cents a th.

I would argue  that mining won't drop as the t21 easily makes money at 6 cent power.

[stompix]

and viabtc is paying
0.0678 a th

But isn't that 7 days average?
The daily reward has dropped like a stone, last blocked ‎3.377 BTC, which would be 490 BTC, let's keep things simple
500 BTC x 63 000k / 600 000 000 it would be  5.25 cents.

Anyhow, you kept mining or you started packing up?
Wonder how mikeywith is doing too, let's see if he drops a few lines ..
FUDGEEEEEEEEE!

I would say that if the value of fees continues to fall, and remains at normal values - before the halving - the next update will be negative.

It dropped for a moment somewhere last night when I checked to just +2 blocks, but still positive

Latest Block:   841112  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.9919%  (441 / 432.39 expected, 8.61 ahead)

It will be for sure negative at the end of the period, it's a bit of nonsense to see it grow at the worst income per th we had in a year.

[philipma1957]

and viabtc is paying
0.0678 a th

But isn't that 7 days average?
The daily reward has dropped like a stone, last blocked ‎3.377 BTC, which would be 490 BTC, let's keep things simple
500 BTC x 63 000k / 600 000 000 it would be  5.25 cents.

Anyhow, you kept mining or you started packing up?
Wonder how mikeywith is doing too, let's see if he drops a few lines ..
FUDGEEEEEEEEE!

I would say that if the value of fees continues to fall, and remains at normal values - before the halving - the next update will be negative.

It dropped for a moment somewhere last night when I checked to just +2 blocks, but still positive

Latest Block:   841112  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.9919%  (441 / 432.39 expected, 8.61 ahead)

It will be for sure negative at the end of the period, it's a bit of nonsense to see it grow at the worst income per th we had in a year.

My large Clifton farm is gone.

Got a house full of gear

Slowing selling the gpus at the moment.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/166730324848

https://www.ebay.com/fdbk/feedback_profile/philipma1957

It will take me months to sell the gear.

Sucks but gear is all paid off

Sold off about 10,000 in last 40 days

[mikeywith]

But isn't that 7 days average?
The daily reward has dropped like a stone, last blocked ‎3.377 BTC, which would be 490 BTC, let's keep things simple
500 BTC x 63 000k / 600 000 000 it would be  5.25 cents.

My actual payout per PH is as follows, just to show others the affect of transaction fees.

20-4-2024   = 0.0027BTC/ph
28-4-2024   = 0.00075BTC/ph

so that's 48$ per ph which is 4.8 cents per th, so even worse than what you calculated above  , which sucks!

Wonder how mikeywith is doing too, let's see if he drops a few lines ..
FUDGEEEEEEEEE!

That's some serious fudge to be honest lol, I mean if you have S19 Pro and 7 cents you are basically mining at break-even, S19 pro might not be the latest gen but how old is it? and how much was it sold for? I would be very upset if I had that, then even if we were to assume that you magically had a 5 5-cent power rate which is pretty low by today's standard, that would be $2 a day, worse than S9 on its worst days a few years ago.

Remember, here we are only talking about the electricity bill, nothing more, if the difficulty doesn't drop then the ROI for all gears bought this year and even a few months prior to the halving will be NEVER, not in a year, not in 3 years even if you had 2-3 cents power, which is why I still think that miners are now playing the chicken game, there is no way that all current hashrate can be sustained with the current price and transaction fee.

It will be for sure negative at the end of the period, it's a bit of nonsense to see it grow at the worst income per th we had in a year.

Ya, it's very unlikely to see it grow, in fact, i would say the same thing about the previous epoch (I did say) but then thanks to the transaction fees, blocks were larger than before the halving, but then again, if all large miners are playing the chicken game it means they are all pushing the pedal harder, so it won't be impossible for this epoch or even the next one to have some upside until the cars crash into one another and the weak cars leave.

Although I still think, that the chicken game is still being played even if all players are already at their last bit of it and can't push any further, the few coming epochs will be fun to watch, if the price doesn't go up or even worse/better goes down, get your self some large supply of popcorn and fudge while you watch things unfold.

Phill, hope you holding strong bro, I feel for you.

[philipma1957]

But isn't that 7 days average?
The daily reward has dropped like a stone, last blocked ‎3.377 BTC, which would be 490 BTC, let's keep things simple
500 BTC x 63 000k / 600 000 000 it would be  5.25 cents.

My actual payout per PH is as follows, just to show others the affect of transaction fees.

20-11-2024   = 0.0027BTC/ph
28-11-2024   = 0.00075BTC/ph

so that's 48$ per ph which is 4.8 cents per th, so even worse than what you calculated above  , which sucks!

Wonder how mikeywith is doing too, let's see if he drops a few lines ..
FUDGEEEEEEEEE!

That's some serious fudge to be honest lol, I mean if you have S19 Pro and 7 cents you are basically mining at break-even, S19 pro might not be the latest gen but how old is it? and how much was it sold for? I would be very upset if I had that, then even if we were to assume that you magically had a 5 5-cent power rate which is pretty low by today's standard, that would be $2 a day, worse than S9 on its worst days a few years ago.

Remember, here we are only talking about the electricity bill, nothing more, if the difficulty doesn't drop then the ROI for all gears bought this year and even a few months prior to the halving will be NEVER, not in a year, not in 3 years even if you had 2-3 cents power, which is why I still think that miners are now playing the chicken game, there is no way that all current hashrate can be sustained with the current price and transaction fee.

It will be for sure negative at the end of the period, it's a bit of nonsense to see it grow at the worst income per th we had in a year.

Ya, it's very unlikely to see it grow, in fact, i would say the same thing about the previous epoch (I did say) but then thanks to the transaction fees, blocks were larger than before the halving, but then again, if all large miners are playing the chicken game it means they are all pushing the pedal harder, so it won't be impossible for this epoch or even the next one to have some upside until the cars crash into one another and the weak cars leave.

Although I still think, that the chicken game is still being played even if all players are already at their last bit of it and can't push any further, the few coming epochs will be fun to watch, if the price doesn't go up or even worse/better goes down, get your self some large supply of popcorn and fudge while you watch things unfold.

Phill, hope you holding strong bro, I feel for you.

yeah I am done. mining a few kwatts at a loss at home.  and selling gpus on eBay.

[joker_josue]

yeah I am done. mining a few kwatts at a loss at home.  and selling gpus on eBay.

It really is a shame to have to leave mining like this.

What do you think it would take to get back? Get cheaper energy or more efficient mining equipment?

[paid2]

What do you think it would take to get back? Get cheaper energy or more efficient mining equipment?

Or a huge drop of the difficulty, or blocks with multiple BTC of fees..

[stompix]

We're going negative, as expected although this might be again luck

Latest Block:   841369  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.2938%  (698 / 710.12 expected, 12.12 behind)

Now, the interesting thing is that we lost 12 blocks but the fees are down to 17 sat/vb as I type this, so there is no demand for space, no jump in fees anymore, the last block has just 0.28 BTC so not even 10% of the block reward, we're looking at a 40% loss in revenue not profit!

If the price goes to 60k or below then we have another 10% before that, a huge load of fudge!

As mikey said, someone will have to blink and if they don't and they go still full throttle this is just going to be worse for them all in a few months, I wouldn't want to be a guy who has poured all his investors money in a plan of 10exahash right now, especially if those weren't money from usual ventures but the government back dor deals.

That's some serious fudge to be honest lol, I mean if you have S19 Pro and 7 cents you are basically mining at break-even, S19 pro might not be the latest gen but how old is it? and how much was it sold for? I would be very upset if I had that, then even if we were to assume that you magically had a 5 5-cent power rate which is pretty low by today's standard, that would be $2 a day, worse than S9 on its worst days a few years ago.

I still have two of them singing in the basement, the power is of no concern since till autumn I can deal with 10KW, but in August I will retire them if we're still in this price range, they did a great job at heating the floor in a stone/concrete building but I don't need that in summer and going above peak allowed consumption I will have to pay 12eurocents/kwh, no f way!

Plus, and this is the most important thing, I got bored with them!