2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[philipma1957]

Just opened it.

here is a link to old thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5431167.0






we are right at 100%

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   823890  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.3735%  (1363 / 1357.93 expected, 5.07 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   67305906902031.39                            
Current Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Next Difficulty:   between 72260493554650 and 72290424462341
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.3532% and +0.3948%
Previous Retarget:   December 23, 2023 at 1:01 AM  (+6.9834%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 11:46 PM  (in 4d 12h 25m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 11:54 PM  (in 4d 12h 33m 34s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 44m 59s and 13d 22h 52m 51s

[1715266076]

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[paid2]

Only 16,108 blocks left, before the next BTC halving.

I am very curious to see what will be the post-halving difficulty... I wonder if it will drop significantly or if we will have a crazy difficulty like >100T this year

[joker_josue]

we are right at 100%

Taking into account the situation we have been experiencing in recent times, very high fees, the fact that there are no major changes in speed, could this be a sign that we will continue to see high fees?

[philipma1957]

we are right at 100%

Taking into account the situation we have been experiencing in recent times, very high fees, the fact that there are no major changes in speed, could this be a sign that we will continue to see high fees?

High are going to last for at least 5 months. Say may 31.

Just look at last year.  they were high for over 6 out of 12 months.

With rewards dropping to 3.125 miners (kingpin massive mines) will want high fees

[joker_josue]

With rewards dropping to 3.125 miners (kingpin massive mines) will want high fees

Without a doubt, this will be difficult to combat.
I just hope that people don't get used to this, and stop debating the subject, ending up being forgotten and leaving us with these levels of super high rates.

[philipma1957]

With rewards dropping to 3.125 miners (kingpin massive mines) will want high fees

Without a doubt, this will be difficult to combat.
I just hope that people don't get used to this, and stop debating the subject, ending up being forgotten and leaving us with these levels of super high rates.

The easy short-term solve is do KYC with an exchange that allow use of LN.

Kraken does it.


hodl 90% of your coins in your wallet

put 10% in kraken.

[stompix]

With rewards dropping to 3.125 miners (kingpin massive mines) will want high fees

Damn, and I was just looking at my new 7 cents/kwh tariff for the year!
No expansion plans for me.../s , tons of sarcasm!

Massive miners don't care that much phil, they don't run on their own money, people don't care about results, they care about shares,  the guy running this is not looking at his wallet he's looking at his ceo wage, MARA shares spiked to $31, even now adjusting to the $20 areas it's still 550.59%, RIOT is at 328.04% both beating Bitcoin with a large margin.

Big miners and us plebs live a different world with different rules!

Without a doubt, this will be difficult to combat.

Pretty simple, you stop paying for it! 
When something becomes unfordable people ditch it and move to something else, then that thing becomes the main gateway for payments.

Have you seen the discussions here about the payments? We're on bitcointalk and we're talking about people getting paid in doge or ltc, maybe soon even usdt, on bitcointalk!  I stopped myself before saying that maybe we should tart using Paypal! 
Small payments on chain were done one way or the other anyhow, ordinals or no ordinals, image we indeed would have 100  million bitcoin users, how would that work?

Consolidate small inputs by the 4 or 5 (I don't know how much goes before 0.5kb) with 21sat/b with Viabtc and just hold, it makes like absolutely no sense now to transaction on chain, and most likely will never make sense in the future unless you deal in thousands in $ value.

Latest Block:   824171  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.3862%  (1644 / 1637.68 expected, 6.32 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 6:43 AM  (in 2d 13h 45m 41s)

6 blocks, and nearly 400 to go, this could turn negative any moment, that 6.9% adjustment last time was a fluke!

[joker_josue]

Have you seen the discussions here about the payments? We're on bitcointalk and we're talking about people getting paid in doge or ltc, maybe soon even usdt, on bitcointalk!  I stopped myself before saying that maybe we should tart using Paypal! 
Small payments on chain were done one way or the other anyhow, ordinals or no ordinals, image we indeed would have 100  million bitcoin users, how would that work?

Analyzing it this way, the idea remains that Bitcoin was doomed from birth to be a coin for commercial use. But that's what it was made for.
I continue to think that Bitcoin can be an excellent tool for commercial exchanges, large or small. I recognize that some existing solutions do not allow this to be as functional as I would like.
Now, I also believe that the global bitcoin community will find a solution to better manage this issue.

~~

I didn't understand, this free one. 

[philipma1957]

Have you seen the discussions here about the payments? We're on bitcointalk and we're talking about people getting paid in doge or ltc, maybe soon even usdt, on bitcointalk!  I stopped myself before saying that maybe we should tart using Paypal!  
Small payments on chain were done one way or the other anyhow, ordinals or no ordinals, image we indeed would have 100  million bitcoin users, how would that work?

Analyzing it this way, the idea remains that Bitcoin was doomed from birth to be a coin for commercial use. But that's what it was made for.
I continue to think that Bitcoin can be an excellent tool for commercial exchanges, large or small. I recognize that some existing solutions do not allow this to be as functional as I would like.
Now, I also believe that the global bitcoin community will find a solution to better manage this issue.

~~

I didn't understand, this free one.  

It serves two purposes it draws attention to my signature. I also

 used it to make a sign to give a snow blower away.

I took a screen shot of it blown up and printed it on my printer. then used tape on it and a larger piece of cardboard. lets see how long it takes for someone to take it away .

I would think under 2 days.

Snow blower is gone.

[mikeywith]

I am very curious to see what will be the post-halving difficulty... I wonder if it will drop significantly or if we will have a crazy difficulty like >100T this year

It mostly has to do with what the price will be then, but many people will be surprised not to see an immediate drop in difficulty, so it's probably a good time to refresh everybody's memory on what happened on the previous halving.

The 2020 halving took place on the 11th of May , difficulty was 20.6T,  price was in the 8-10k range and stayed that way until October, so it had no major impact on what happened right after the halving.

So what was the next epoch difficulty post-halving? 25T, that's roughly 20% increase despite the 50% drop in reward, then two weeks later it dropped back to the pre-halving levels of 20T and stayed there until 4th of July epoch change, so nearly 2 months with no downside action on the difficulty which was contrary to what most people believed would happen.

However, two months were long enough for many miners to capitulate and accept "defeat", because the 4th of July epoch had a massive difficulty drop from 20T to 14T which is a 30% drop in difficulty, and that was the lowest difficulty we have seen since then.

The takeaway from the previous halving is

1- Do not expect an immediate drop in hashrate
2- Noway on earth we are getting a 50% drop in difficulty (not half miners have to leave, and those who stay would just accept fewer rewards and move on)

If I had to guess what's going to happen the next halving is even "worse" or "better" depending on how you look at it, because back in 2020 there were no U.S investors' money, no large mining corporations like we have today, most miners did not have long-term cheap electricity contracts (they do now), so the current large U.S players will be able to resist for a lot longer until one of 3 things happen.

A- One large player falls and lets the others enjoy his rewards.
B- All of them reduce their cost by downclocking their gears to the most efficient point.
C- Price goes up to make up for up for the halving.

I don't think C is going to happen soon enough after the halving, A is somewhat likely but B seems the most reasonable outcome at least for the 6 months period post halving, and my guess is we won't see anything more than 20% drop in difficulty, so if diff is at 80T prior to the halving, a few months later we might drop to 65T and that's the lowest it's ever going to be.

[kano]

...

It serves two purposes it draws attention to my signature. I also

 used it to make a sign to give a snow blower away.

I took a screen shot of it blown up and printed it on my printer. then used tape on it and a larger piece of cardboard. lets see how long it takes for someone to take it away .

I would think under 2 days.

So it's off topic spam.
Please delete it.

[joker_josue]

What is not off topic is that suddenly, just a few hours before adjustment and difficulty, the prospect of adjustment increased to almost 2%.

Latest Block:   824443  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.7044%  (1916 / 1883.89 expected, 32.11 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   67305906902031.39                            
Current Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Next Difficulty:   between 73241494610784 and 73244594057693
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.7156% and +1.7199%
Previous Retarget:   December 23, 2023 at 6:01 AM  (+6.9834%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 12:23 AM  (in 0d 16h 23m 14s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 12:24 AM  (in 0d 16h 24m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 18h 22m 9s and 13d 18h 22m 59s

It's incredible how 2 or 3 days ago, it was at zero, and now it's at 2%. Suddenly everyone turned on the machines?  

[alh]

While I appreciate those folks that have researched and considered what the next halving might look like based on 2020, I would urge caution in doing so. The COVID pandemic disrupted most of the planet in terms of supply chains, shipping, and overall economic activity. I don't think that Bitcoin would be immune to that as well. Lots of external forces directly influence BTC price which can drive a lot of other actions in the overall sphere of Bitcoin.

Just my thought.

[philipma1957]

While I appreciate those folks that have researched and considered what the next halving might look like based on 2020, I would urge caution in doing so. The COVID pandemic disrupted most of the planet in terms of supply chains, shipping, and overall economic activity. I don't think that Bitcoin would be immune to that as well. Lots of external forces directly influence BTC price which can drive a lot of other actions in the overall sphere of Bitcoin.

Just my thought.

And one more factor

rewards of 3.125
fees of       1

mean a 4.125 block

which is not quite a real ½ ing

Even when we were 12.5 and fees were high

we went from 14
to                    7 for a while

which was a lot more like a real ½ ing



At stompix here in the USA I can pay with Zelle up to 2000 usd a day pretty much instantly and free.

I really do not need to use the chain for amounts under 2000 usd

I have Zelle up to $2000

I also can do nicehash LN wallet for free well for 0.00000014 btc I mine 3000 a month to them .

I also can use kraken LN wallet I do not keep a lot on kraken say $500.


Put I could send them up to $10000 in cash buy btc with it and do a large LN (will not be doing that) I would use the chain for 2000 usd and higher.

[stompix]

So we just had a positive one again

Previous Retarget:   Today at 2:36 AM  (+1.6547%)

Probably the least surprising adjustment for a while.

Current Pace:   94.8907%  (93 / 98.01 expected, 5.01 behind)

Pace looks bad but it's just half a day, by next day it can be 5 blocks ahead.
I don't think anything spectacular will happen this epoch either, doubt too much gear can be bought online after the holiday or that anything out of ordinary happen with tariffs, someone important enough losing precentral prices per kwh, so not holding my breath for anything.

-----

That aside, is anyone mining at antpool, and top of that encountering problems with the login? That damn slide loading and loading ..and..

[philipma1957]

So we just had a positive one again

Previous Retarget:   Today at 2:36 AM  (+1.6547%)

Probably the least surprising adjustment for a while.

Current Pace:   94.8907%  (93 / 98.01 expected, 5.01 behind)

Pace looks bad but it's just half a day, by next day it can be 5 blocks ahead.
I don't think anything spectacular will happen this epoch either, doubt too much gear can be bought online after the holiday or that anything out of ordinary happen with tariffs, someone important enough losing precentral prices per kwh, so not holding my breath for anything.

-----

That aside, is anyone mining at antpool, and top of that encountering problems with the login? That damn slide loading and loading ..and..

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   824794  (13 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   88.8415%  (251 / 282.53 expected, 31.53 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                             
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 65150574803063 and 71145683815508
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.9936% and -2.8033%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 7:36 PM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 20, 2024 at 5:27 AM  (in 12d 10h 46m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 21, 2024 at 1:48 PM  (in 13d 19h 6m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 51m 15s and 15d 18h 12m 5s

251 vs 282 down 31

and mempool is duh crowd again

time to stop the downclocking at foundry and then boost back to 0 behind

or I know just variance.

At kano what is the math on 251 instead of 281

[joker_josue]

So did everyone remember to turn off the miners?
How is it that in less than 2 days, after the difficulty change of +1%, now the forecast is almost 10%? 

Any logical explanation for this?

[philipma1957]

So did everyone remember to turn off the miners?
How is it that in less than 2 days, after the difficulty change of +1%, now the forecast is almost 10%? 

Any logical explanation for this?

downclocking by foundry in order to pre crowd the mempool.

this was done because they would make a ton of money if the NTF jumps up and prices go to 60k.

fees will be huge in a matter of a few days. say thursday this week.

or maybe a storm knocked out a few vast mines.

I am betting on hash manipulation by large mines.

[joker_josue]

downclocking by foundry in order to pre crowd the mempool.

Is there any data that helps understand this type of scenario?

I am betting on hash manipulation by large mines.

I share the same idea. I find this sequence of events over several weeks/months very strange.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   824911  (24 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   88.0149%  (368 / 418.11 expected, 50.11 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                            
Next Difficulty:   between 64505580812468 and 70065422773482
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.8748% and -4.2791%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 7:36 PM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 20, 2024 at 10:47 AM  (in 11d 17h 29m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 21, 2024 at 5:21 PM  (in 13d 0h 4m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 15h 10m 44s and 15d 21h 45m 12s

quite a bit off pace 368 vs 418

and coins are near 47k


and what is the old mempool up to lets see. here is the last 7 days


first 3-4 days before the diff jump diff rose showing possible overclock and memory pool shrank in count also showing result of blocks being made quickly we lowered to 252k or 255k backed up tx in pool right at the jump.




we are now at 282-285k. tx backed up due to slow blocks.

see below.  so if you want to argue that foundry is testing my raise the fee concept this evidence certainly is in favor of what I said.
 But not conclusive at all.   much like old paternity test. If one guy is type a+ and the other guy is type B-

you could rule one out as the dad. but not prove the one you could not rule out as the dad.


Does this continue to the ETF announcement we will see. If it does  then whales like a mofo it looks more like that is what was done.

[joker_josue]

Where can you see how many blocks each pool mines daily?
And also the hash power of each pool?

[philipma1957]

Where can you see how many blocks each pool mines daily?
And also the hash power of each pool?

the hash power is not really available. it is only an estimate made on blocks made daily.

so if you look at foundry and they make 48 blocks in a day  for days on end the estimate is 48/144 = 33% of the worlds hashrate.

IF THE  world  makes 2016 blocks in exactly 14 days at a difficulty of 72th see below  you can calculate the estimated hashrate

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   825001  (23 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   89.5444%  (458 / 511.48 expected, 53.48 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1

                           
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 65611530447772 and 69940710246342
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.3639% and -4.4495%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 7:36 PM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 20, 2024 at 11:24 AM  (in 11d 2h 33m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 21, 2024 at 10:50 AM  (in 12d 1h 59m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 15h 48m 4s and 15d 15h 13m 57s

blocks are here


https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks

[joker_josue]

blocks are here


https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks

Excellent tip! I'm thinking of doing an analysis with this data. Thanks.

Then I share it here.

[philipma1957]

blocks are here


https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks

Excellent tip! I'm thinking of doing an analysis with this data. Thanks.

Then I share it here.

here is another chart

[mikeywith]

see below.  so if you want to argue that foundry is testing my raise the fee concept this evidence certainly is in favor of what I said.
 But not conclusive at all.   much like old paternity test. If one guy is type a+ and the other guy is type B-

But foundry found 38 blocks in the last 24 hours, which corresponds to 27% of blocks found, not much lower from their 7-days average of 27.8%, I am not saying they are not doing what you are suggesting because we don't know if the last 7-day representation is even accurate, but don't you think that if they were going to do something like that -- it would be better while BTC price is down? right now BTC sits at roughly 47k which is a very interesting number to most miners and many of them would sell at this price to stack cash for the rainy days, what you suggest would be better down when the price falls, not while going up IMO.

[joker_josue]

But foundry found 38 blocks in the last 24 hours, which corresponds to 27% of blocks found, not much lower from their 7-days average of 27.8%, I am not saying they are not doing what you are suggesting because we don't know if the last 7-day representation is even accurate, but don't you think that if they were going to do something like that -- it would be better while BTC price is down? right now BTC sits at roughly 47k which is a very interesting number to most miners and many of them would sell at this price to stack cash for the rainy days, what you suggest would be better down when the price falls, not while going up IMO.

In reality, the fact that the price of Bitcoin is rising is the best time to do so. Since the value in fiat is high, turning off machines does not significantly affect the operation, as the money earned from mining continues to support costs and make a profit.

[philipma1957]

see below.  so if you want to argue that foundry is testing my raise the fee concept this evidence certainly is in favor of what I said.
 But not conclusive at all.   much like old paternity test. If one guy is type a+ and the other guy is type B-

But foundry found 38 blocks in the last 24 hours, which corresponds to 27% of blocks found, not much lower from their 7-days average of 27.8%, I am not saying they are not doing what you are suggesting because we don't know if the last 7-day representation is even accurate, but don't you think that if they were going to do something like that -- it would be better while BTC price is down? right now BTC sits at roughly 47k which is a very interesting number to most miners and many of them would sell at this price to stack cash for the rainy days, what you suggest would be better down when the price falls, not while going up IMO.

The evidence shows that the last year has had really high fees and we all know this year is the 1/2 ing dial this in for 2023 was okay.

[mikeywith]

In reality, the fact that the price of Bitcoin is rising is the best time to do so. Since the value in fiat is high, turning off machines does not significantly affect the operation, as the money earned from mining continues to support costs and make a profit.

Well, yes, that's a valid point. However, my argument is, if the profit is high, I'd rather harvest it now. The percentage increase in net profit outweighs the block fee. I'm not saying my point makes more sense than yours, but you need to keep in mind that if Foundry turns off gears to achieve anything (be it higher transaction fees or lower difficulty), they would only benefit from 25% of the goal they set, whereas anything they lose is 100% theirs.

If the above is not clear, let's put it into actual figures. If Foundry underclocks all of its gears by 10%, the effect on difficulty would be a drop of 2.5%, and the transaction fees would only go up by 2.5% (since there would be 2.5% fewer blocks for roughly 2 weeks).

Out of this 2.5% increase, Foundry gets only 22.5%. So if the total fees are 2016 BTC per epoch, they now become 2,066.4. That's an extra 50.4 BTC, of which Foundry would get 11.34 BTC. But they have lost 10% of their cut out of those 14,616 BTC. So instead of making 3,654 (if they kept their 25% share), they would make 3,288. That's a loss of 365.4 BTC in a single epoch.

In the next epoch after that 2.5% difficulty drop, they would make 2.5% more profit. So instead of 3,654, they would make 3,745.35 BTC or 91.35 BTC.

So they are up 91.35 + 11.4 = 102.75 BTC, down 365.4 BTC, net = a loss of 262 BTC.

Obviously, operating at a 10% underclock means more efficiency, and thus their power bill would be lower than just 10%, so maybe we can reduce the loss by 10-20% or even 30%. They are still in a net loss.

Again, another reason I say it would make sense to do that in a bear market where gear efficiency matters most. When net profit is close to zero, gear efficiency matters the most. When net profit is high, you are better off overclocking than underclocking. It's just how I would act if I were them. It's how I conduct my mining business as a small-sized miner.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

The ordinal game is literally gonna get bigger - plans in progress to archive vintage Nintendo console games in them.
I started a thread here in the technical area about it.

TL;DR
    Bitcoin developers have unveiled a project that will allow them preserve Nintendo games with Ordinals.
    SNES emulator on the Bitcoin blockchain.

fun fun... At least it beats the hell out of the inane pics being sold to idjits.

[joker_josue]

~~

But, apparently, they don't "turn off" the machines for the full 14 days. The feeling we have is that there is a shutdown of machines in the first few days, after the cycle change, until the network becomes clogged and fees rise. In other words, for 4 or 5 days, they have fewer machines to mine. And then regression with all its strength. And the closer to the renewal of the difficulty, the more power they place.

Therefore, during the last cycle, it was noted that in almost the entire period the predicted variation was 0%, but in the final stretch it rose 1%. Right after the difficulty adjustment, everything slowed down, with -10% expected in the next adjustment. It remains to be seen, the sequence of this cycle, to see if it will really go down.

Latest Block:   825070  (30 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   91.8181%  (527 / 573.96 expected, 46.96 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                             
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 67270021584854 and 70379123537470
Next Difficulty Change:   between -8.0981% and -3.8505%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 12:36 AM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 20, 2024 at 2:12 PM  (in 10d 13h 56m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 21, 2024 at 6:32 AM  (in 11d 6h 16m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 13h 36m 27s and 15d 5h 56m 27s

[mikeywith]

started a thread here in the technical area about it. [/url]

You are going to get some fun comments there  , some folks treat Ordinals as an attack on BTC and they don't take kindly any discussion related to them.

But, apparently, they don't "turn off" the machines for the full 14 days.

The math still holds true. If it's 7 days, you just divide everything I mentioned above by 2, and so on. However, I understand the theory behind all this. We've discussed it here, probably since 2019 or so. It's a valid theory. I just don't think the math checks out for a single pool. It makes sense if 3-4 of the largest pools do it, as everything they do to the blockchain would be almost 100% beneficial to them. As it stands right now, the way I see it is that mining pools would be better off spamming the blockchain with high-fee transactions than turning off gears.

[stompix]

But, apparently, they don't "turn off" the machines for the full 14 days. The feeling we have is that there is a shutdown of machines in the first few days, after the cycle change, until the network becomes clogged and fees rise.

Apparently and feelings...
You can go here and check the blocks mined by every pool:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-pools
the shut down thing then pump more get fees sound good in theory but you have on huge problem!

Mining coins is not like oil pumping, so you close  valve you get half, you might shut down 30% of your machine and actually in the next hour mined more than previously, because..luck! So rather than blaming on one pool or others, how about we see what went wrong in that 10% drop which is mainly because of the 12 minutes between block average on the 7!
Well, what happen is that block 824718 proved to be an asshole, as it was mined 2 hours and 2 minutes after the previous, dropping the numbers of blocks to 125 for the day. Does this 2 hours interval sound like something Foundry would be able to do while throttling their gear?  

Yeah, sound nice like a theory but..it's still a theory!

Obviously, operating at a 10% underclock means more efficiency, and thus their power bill would be lower than just 10%, so maybe we can reduce the loss by 10-20% or even 30%. They are still in a net loss.

But, with gear shut down doesn't that mean that the epoch will be longer? So you will get the same reward for the 2016 blocks but it will not be in 14 days it will be in 14 days and 8 hours or god knows how much, as everyone will be running their remaining gear longer for the same $, increasing the their electricity spent/bitcoin?

started a thread here in the technical area about it. [/url]

You are going to get some fun comments there  , some folks treat Ordinals as an attack on BTC and they don't take kindly any discussion related to them.

I'm grabbing my fudge popcorn.  

[joker_josue]

The math still holds true. If it's 7 days, you just divide everything I mentioned above by 2, and so on. However, I understand the theory behind all this. We've discussed it here, probably since 2019 or so. It's a valid theory. I just don't think the math checks out for a single pool. It makes sense if 3-4 of the largest pools do it, as everything they do to the blockchain would be almost 100% beneficial to them. As it stands right now, the way I see it is that mining pools would be better off spamming the blockchain with high-fee transactions than turning off gears.

It should be noted that the two largest pools will have +50% hash power. So it really isn't difficult to have concerted actions between them.

Apparently and feelings...
You can go here and check the blocks mined by every pool:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-pools
the shut down thing then pump more get fees sound good in theory but you have on huge problem!

~~

Yeah, sound nice like a theory but..it's still a theory!

I will come back with an analysis on this soon. We will see what can be understood from it. 

Otherwise, I totally agree, it's just a theory.

[philipma1957]

~~

But, apparently, they don't "turn off" the machines for the full 14 days. The feeling we have is that there is a shutdown of machines in the first few days, after the cycle change, until the network becomes clogged and fees rise. In other words, for 4 or 5 days, they have fewer machines to mine. And then regression with all its strength. And the closer to the renewal of the difficulty, the more power they place.

Therefore, during the last cycle, it was noted that in almost the entire period the predicted variation was 0%, but in the final stretch it rose 1%. Right after the difficulty adjustment, everything slowed down, with -10% expected in the next adjustment. It remains to be seen, the sequence of this cycle, to see if it will really go down.

Latest Block:   825070  (30 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   91.8181%  (527 / 573.96 expected, 46.96 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                             
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 67270021584854 and 70379123537470
Next Difficulty Change:   between -8.0981% and -3.8505%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 12:36 AM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 20, 2024 at 2:12 PM  (in 10d 13h 56m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 21, 2024 at 6:32 AM  (in 11d 6h 16m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 13h 36m 27s and 15d 5h 56m 27s

the pattern has been - for 400-500 blocks =  the underclock
slowly rising back to 0 than plus = the overclock


most of 2023 has this pattern

and so far most of 2024 has this pattern.


when the ½ ing comes the penalty for a 500 block under clock drops from 6.25 reward to 3.125 reward

it becomes a 50% discount and as fuzzy mentions instead of ordinals video games 🎮 will be used and on and on and on.

people need to learn and use ln

[joker_josue]

it becomes a 50% discount and as fuzzy mentions instead of ordinals video games 🎮 will be used and on and on and on.

people need to learn and use ln

Unfortunately I still can't see LN as a solution/alternative.
The alternative cannot be more complex than the main model. It has to be at least the same, or even simpler.

For me, these are the things that need to be on a second or third layer, not money transactions. But this is my view, which is irrelevant.

[philipma1957]

it becomes a 50% discount and as fuzzy mentions instead of ordinals video games 🎮 will be used and on and on and on.

people need to learn and use ln

Unfortunately I still can't see LN as a solution/alternative.
The alternative cannot be more complex than the main model. It has to be at least the same, or even simpler.

For me, these are the things that need to be on a second or third layer, not money transactions. But this is my view, which is irrelevant.

well it would be complex to stop ordinals .

even if you say no tx bigger then 5000bits an ordinal guy could do 100 5000 bit inputs number 01 to 100 and boom 500,000 bits used.

[joker_josue]

20EH/s WANTED
Last time seen, they were mining blocks at rates greater than 250 sat/vB.
If anyone finds them, please contact Foundry. 


https://mempool.space/mining/pool/foundryusa

[philipma1957]

and we are now 26 blocks off pace.

pattern happens a lot.

-1 to -10 %. early and then we move up and on to + 1- 3% as a finish,

[joker_josue]

-1 to -10 %. early and then we move up and on to + 1- 3% as a finish,

I really find this strange...it can't be natural behavior.
There must be concrete reasons for this to happen.

How many cycles have we seen this type of event? 4 or 5 cycles? More?

[philipma1957]

-1 to -10 %. early and then we move up and on to + 1- 3% as a finish,

I really find this strange...it can't be natural behavior.
There must be concrete reasons for this to happen.

How many cycles have we seen this type of event? 4 or 5 cycles? More?

so far 27 cycles from jan 2023 to now.

I would think at least nine cycles in the last 27 match the pattern.

look at the concept I describe . if you make it work and it pays more and it will as rewards decrease you simply do not need to do it every jump.


 the patterns happened a lot in2023 and the first month of  2024.

as rewards drop with 2024 ½ ing it is easier to do.

and getting closer to 0 blocks behind. from 50 behind now to 20 behind

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   825465  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   97.8070%  (922 / 942.67 expected, 20.67 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                            
Next Difficulty:   between 71632154136678 and 72086154231421
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.1387% and -1.5185%
Previous Retarget:   January 5, 2024 at 7:36 PM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 20, 2024 at 12:55 AM  (in 7d 16h 12m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 20, 2024 at 3:08 AM  (in 7d 18h 25m 17s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 18m 54s and 14d 7h 32m 1s

but this round of down then up did not give them as many fees as other rounds of this game. most fees were under 0.75 btc a block



so if the next four years happen with 2 of 3 jumps doing what i say pools will make solid coin.



back to 0%

Latest Block:   825572  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.9679%  (1029 / 1029.33 expected, 0.33 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                             
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 73208068106894 and 73211358075134
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0143% and +0.0187%
Previous Retarget:   January 5, 2024 at 7:36 PM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 19, 2024 at 7:41 PM  (in 6d 20h 31m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 19, 2024 at 7:42 PM  (in 6d 20h 33m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 4m 55s and 14d 0h 6m 28s

[joker_josue]

We are in the middle of the difficult cycle, and after several days, with a negative rate close to 8~10%, it has now returned to 0~1%, and in turn a new increase in rates.

Latest Block:   825623  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.8625%  (1080 / 1081.49 expected, 1.49 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                             
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 73132393001796 and 73146446641083
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.0891% and -0.0699%
Previous Retarget:   January 6, 2024 at 12:36 AM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 20, 2024 at 12:58 AM  (in 6d 12h 6m 54s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 20, 2024 at 1:04 AM  (in 6d 12h 12m 53s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 21m 46s and 14d 0h 27m 45s

It's really interesting to analyze these numbers. It is difficult to think that this is something normal.

[philipma1957]

in the plus zone +8 blocks

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   825734  (17 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.6669%  (1191 / 1183.11 expected, 7.89 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                             
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 73630682539599 and 73718410936551
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5916% and +0.7115%
Previous Retarget:   January 5, 2024 at 7:36 PM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 5:22 PM  (in 5d 16h 35m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 5:45 PM  (in 5d 16h 57m 42s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 46m 26s and 13d 22h 8m 48s

[joker_josue]

I'm not a miner - unfortunately, so I ask: What logical explanation is there for this?

How is it that during 7 days the hash drops significantly, after these 7 days the hash returns to the values it was before? What happened during those 7 days?

[stompix]

I'm not a miner - unfortunately, so I ask: What logical explanation is there for this?
~
How is it that during 7 days the hash drops significantly, after these 7 days the hash returns to the values it was before? What happened during those 7 days?

Kano's answer on probability!
Then go here:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-confirmationtime.html#3y.
If still wondering, do an experiment, throw dices for 10 minutes see how many you got then repeat see the differences 
I find it always amusing how when there are fewer blocks there is obvious something wrong but when there are more it's no longer an issue!

The epoch in October started with 156,155, the one in middle November had first 161 then 121, the one in mid December went 158,144,149 so it doesn't always happen like it's some kind of pattern.
Go to the other topic for the 2013 and see how many times we had completely unrealistic positive values in the first days, this is just from my own history:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5431167.msg63381076#msg63381076

Now this one is weird, I know it's just one day and a half but:

Quote
Current Pace:   109.5857%  (245 / 223.57 expected, 21.43 ahead)
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 8:01 AM  (+6.9834%)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5431167.msg62942828#msg62942828

Latest Block:   810583  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.2575%  (152 / 140.41 expected, 11.59 ahead)
Pace is pretty high for the first day, totally opposite from the last period when we started with -5% for nearly three, so normally, without taking luck and randomness into account this would mean mining gear build-up lately.

[philipma1957]

I'm not a miner - unfortunately, so I ask: What logical explanation is there for this?

How is it that during 7 days the hash drops significantly, after these 7 days the hash returns to the values it was before? What happened during those 7 days?

Well if I am correct it will continue and become more noticeable after the ½ ing.

My theory is to down clock to crowd the mempool first 2-6 days of a 14 day jump.

Then overclock the last 8 days to reap high paying blocks.

This also keeps hashrate in check allowing for a 1 or 2 % jump vs a 5% jump.

When my partner was in China he watched Canaan assembly factories.

I can tell you China can make 2x to 3x the hash we see at low costs.

Ie https://shop.canaan.io/products/avalon-miner-a1246-85t-3420w?VariantsId=10019

only 680 about 8 bucks a th.

I suspect that there is more than 1000eh of so called modern hashing gear with another 300eh of older gear.


If you are big enough and have paid the gear off having 1 megawatt of power and 2.1megawatts of different gear all paid off is not that dumb as it sounds.

btc hot mine all your btc gear. >>>>>>>>>> say 700kwatts
ltc/doge hot mine all your LTC/doge gear.> another 700kwatts
gpus hot mine all your gpus. >>>>>>>> another 700 kwatts


you only have 1000kwatts it is simple to  do 700 of you best and only 150 and 150 of the other 2.


s19s have a 5-6 year life
L7s have a 5-6 year Life
gpus have a 5-6 year life

lots of easy movement in a big place can be done.

plenty of software allows shutting gear on  and off.

at stompix

kano did not answer

my questions for this jump

we were at 527 vs 573. whats the math on that

and we have done  705 vs 658 whats the math on that

and we did that back to back whats the math on that.

I know that it has to be fairly long odds.



by the way they can pick any part of the 14 days to over and under clock

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   826029  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.9412%  (1486 / 1517.24 expected, 31.24 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                             
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 71715375445609 and 71815887510908
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.0250% and -1.8877%
Previous Retarget:   January 5, 2024 at 7:36 PM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 2:10 AM  (in 3d 17h 42m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 2:40 AM  (in 3d 18h 11m 24s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 34m 29s and 14d 7h 3m 46s

fees are lower

[joker_josue]

I'm thinking about doing this type of analysis:




Do you think it makes sense? How could this data be processed?

[philipma1957]

I'm thinking about doing this type of analysis:




Do you think it makes sense? How could this data be processed?

first add all blocks made

total blocks 4599

4599/31 = 148.354 blocks a day for December

then do antpool

1228/4599 = 26.70%

then do foundry

1338/4599 = 29.09%

antpool should do 26.70% x  148.354 = 39.6 blocks a day as a norm

foundry should do  29.09% x 148.354 = 43.15 blocks a day as a norm

see how much they deviate.



next do this

unknown   991.17/ 284  =  fee of 3.48 BTC a block
AntPoll    4656.08/1228 = fee of 3.79 BTC a block
ViaBTC    1899.55/  521 = fee of 3.64 BTC a block
Foundry   4905.87/1338 = fee of 3.66 BTC a block
F2Pool     2047.94/  540 = fee of 3.79 BTC a block
Mara         837.72/  221 = fee of 3.79 BTC a block
SBIC         309.73/   95 = fee of 3.26 BTC a  block
Binance   1099.82/ 270 = fee of 4.07 BTC a block
Poolin.      170.99/  48 = fee of 3.56 BTC a block
SlushPool  198.26/54 = fee  of   3.67   BTC a block



I bold typed the three worse pools.

Getting a block with a lot of fees should be random

So do this for 4 months in a row and see if these three finish in the bottom 3 over and over and over.

the other 7 could be doing cartel or could simply be doing the ideas I talked about here.

unknown are the little guys they should lose out in average fees if bigger pools do what I am saying.

SBIC and POOLIN may move up and down but the other block hitters  should be in the bottom 3 on a constnat monthly basis if the hash down then up then down idea I talk about is really being down.

It should get worse in April.

[stompix]

@joker_josue
 
So, how was that theory about 7 days of slow blocks then 7 days of fast blocks? 

Current Pace:   95.5666%  (1578 / 1651.21 expected, 73.21 behind)
Previous Retarget:   January 6, 2024 at 2:36 AM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 5:27 PM  (in 3d 3h 39m 2s)

In the last 24 hours we had 103 blocks so if we would say that the hashrate went truly offline it would mean only 71% is mining right now to get those blocks, which would mean Foundry itself on whole to have shut down in the last 24h    Now we need to blame antpool for this since they are the ones losing 5% marketshare.

Anyhow, nice breather we got here, it was really getting weird with tens of exas over exas piling up!

[joker_josue]

In the last 24 hours we had 103 blocks so if we would say that the hashrate went truly offline it would mean only 71% is mining right now to get those blocks, which would mean Foundry itself on whole to have shut down in the last 24h    Now we need to blame antpool for this since they are the ones losing 5% marketshare.

One thing is for sure, they are having a run of bad luck. Because they are mining 20% less of the blocks they normally mine.

Foundry only found 25 blocks in the last 24 hours. Against the 32 blocks they had found in the previous 24 hours. And in the 24 hours before, they had made 39 blocks.

EDIT: And as I had the filter on, I took advantage and saw that on the 13th there were 32 blocks, on the 11th and 12th there were 42 blocks. Anyway, they really are very unlucky...

[philipma1957]

@joker_josue
 
So, how was that theory about 7 days of slow blocks then 7 days of fast blocks? 

Current Pace:   95.5666%  (1578 / 1651.21 expected, 73.21 behind)
Previous Retarget:   January 6, 2024 at 2:36 AM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 5:27 PM  (in 3d 3h 39m 2s)

In the last 24 hours we had 103 blocks so if we would say that the hashrate went truly offline it would mean only 71% is mining right now to get those blocks, which would mean Foundry itself on whole to have shut down in the last 24h    Now we need to blame antpool for this since they are the ones losing 5% marketshare.

Anyhow, nice breather we got here, it was really getting weird with tens of exas over exas piling up!

the theory is not 7 under 7 over.  But you can stick with that if it helps you cope.

the theory is under till mempool jams and over til mempool clears up

so it could be 3 under 11 over

or 3 under 4 over 3 under 4 over. 

the best way to say it is wrong is to see unknown block winners get in the top 3 fee average at least 2 times in a year.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

A good part of the drop is no doubt the extremely cold weather in Texas and the rest of the USA. ERCOT no doubt has Foundry and others throttling back so power can be used in the rest of the state https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2024/01/16/green-wind-solar-energy-freezing-texas-power-grid-blackout/

[philipma1957]

A good part of the drop is no doubt the extremely cold weather in Texas and the rest of the USA. ERCOT no doubt has Foundry and others throttling back so power can used in the rest of the state https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2024/01/16/green-wind-solar-energy-freezing-texas-power-grid-blackout/

Good call.

[joker_josue]

A good part of the drop is no doubt the extremely cold weather in Texas and the rest of the USA. ERCOT no doubt has Foundry and others throttling back so power can be used in the rest of the state https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2024/01/16/green-wind-solar-energy-freezing-texas-power-grid-blackout/

The first logical explanation, for a drastic hash change. If they really did that, I think it was a very sensible decision.

Although it does not explain similar cases in the past.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

There is no 'if' about it. ERCOT's pricing & usage deals with the major mines in Texas has been oft discussed here. Same thing happens in the very hot summertime for the same reason.

Those usage deals are what has enabled ERCOT to invest heavily in solar & wind power. A historic problem with solar & wind energy has been how to deal with how much and when power is produced. Because the grid in Texas is mostly isolated from the rest of the US grid ERCOT cannot bring in power when needed and cannot ship out excess power production. The deals with miners has let ERCOT vastly overbuild solar/wind production because the miners will act as a massive base load to use it and like now, when conditions warrant the miners will throttle down as needed with ERCOT paying them usage credits for doing it. I for one cannot think of any other industry that can easily & quickly per-site switch on/off 10's to 100's of MW worth of power usage with very short notice.

A rare win-win for all involved.

[joker_josue]

Based on what was said, I made adjustments to the analysis and added another analysis table.



^{Days of each cycle (in order in the table): 10 | 13 | 8}



This is just a test with the month of December, the idea afterwards will be to use the cycles as a reference. But first I want to adjust the way of analysis.

What other suggestions do you have?

[philipma1957]

fee shares should be fairly random.

Really watch the unknown group

you have 10 groups 9 pools and the 1 unknown.

By sheer random luck the odds of being in the top 3 fee average would be 30%

The least likely group to try fee manipulation would be the unknown group

so 2 months out of the top 3 are .7x.7 = .49
3 months out are .7x.7x.7= .343
4 out = .2401
5 out = .16807
6 put = .117649
7 months= 0.0823543
8 months = 0.05764801
9 months = 0.040353607
10 months= 0.0282475249. if you get to this I would consider that the under over clock is in effect.

but as fuzzy has shown this drop is very like;y just a cold weather snap


fees are  as follows.





there are multiple factors and teasing it all out is not going to happen

1 fomo rises more chain action = fact
2 power  up and down due to  contracts in Texas = fact
3 ordinals intentional spam action = fact
4 hash rate manipulation = theory but I am in a 90% sure belief of this.
5 unknown shit  which does exist but is unknown
6 random luck or variance = fact and should be very hard to predict

I am using random luck to attempt to rule in or out  number 4

as fees should more or less be random.

tracking the top ten pools well 9 plus unknown could show some interesting fee patterns.

2024 is a very good year to do this as it is a 1/2 ing year.

[joker_josue]

I am using random luck to attempt to rule in or out  number 4

as fees should more or less be random.

tracking the top ten pools well 9 plus unknown could show some interesting fee patterns.

2024 is a very good year to do this as it is a 1/2 ing year.

One thing I noticed, is that the "unknown" classification, maybe not so unknown. In collecting information for this test, I noticed that there are identifiable pools within the "unknown" field. I didn't explore it, because I didn't think it was relevant to the test.

This test is not a test of theory, it is just a test of data collection.

In this sense, what data do you think I can collect, and how can I work with it, so that we can study this issue together?

The idea is to collect data every month or every cycle. (For management, each month will be easier.)

Anyway, what do you suggest I add or change to the "model" data I presented?

[stompix]

But you can stick with that if it helps you cope.

It's not about coping Phil, it's about seeing both sides, you look for a pattern I look to see if that pattern is not broken for weeks in a row.

In my last post I mentioned that we had 103 in 24 hours:
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2024-01-16%2011:50:23..2024-01-17%2011:50:23))
At that time feebudy was saying this:

• fastestFee: 58 sat/vB
• halfHourFee: 51 sat/vB
• hourFee: 47 sat/vB
• economyFee: 47 sat/vB
• minimumFee: 24 sat/vB

103 blocks after a previous day of 135 blocks:
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2024-01-15%2011:50:23..2024-01-16%2011:50:23))
and only 58sat/b!!!

But then you have a thing like this:

with 6 blocks in 2 hours and 10 in 3 hours, that's 50% of the capacity and you finally got fees up to 80sat/b.

So how much of the variance in fees and big fee blocks is just really bad timing between blocks and how much is average fee increase?

Also, I would like to point a thing you're forgetting in this hashrate turn-off:

Latest Block:   826242  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.2916%  (1699 / 1782.95 expected, 83.95 behind)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 16h 11m 28s and 14d 16h 36m 6s

You're going to mine more for the same reward, although your 5% is now out of 95% because the network has lost that hashrate it's not going to be 144 blocks per day but also 138 blocks per day for 15 days, it's not a real gain, it's just like a competitor has gone out of business but he has taken the clients with him also.

Also when you look at block rewards, it's not like every spike is triggered just by traffic, there are cases like this:
https://mempool.space/tx/254115f95440409f70a1b93d3870712d4c0a3865fef4d1d86542ac96be18e081
This guy paid 616 sat/vB , for sure it's not about the next block fees sitting at 80sat/b so it would be far more accurate to think these guys would have anyhow paid a ton more, even with fees at 20sat/vb.

Back two weeks ago and next blocks fee was 30 and this guy overpaid 48x to 1,501 sat/vB.
https://mempool.space/tx/b9b4bc87c93bb06bacf1980c2a9fa07ff149ada6981ec496e52dc887697c9788
So when looking at the fees should we not consider what the real floor increase is and not how influenced is by somebody like Binance consolidating and paying 240sat/vb for half a block worth of space in one day?

So how much for these fees is actually because of the congestion and some inscribing monkeys at 4 times the price?

[joker_josue]

So how much for these fees is actually because of the congestion and some inscribing monkeys at 4 times the price?

One thing I found interesting, in the example model I presented, Binance, despite only having a 6% hash weight, is the one that profits the most from mining fees. They tend to find more blocks when rates are higher than when they are lower.

Of course, it is not yet possible to see a pattern here, because we are only analyzing a period of one month. But I found this fact curious.

[philipma1957]

So how much for these fees is actually because of the congestion and some inscribing monkeys at 4 times the price?

One thing I found interesting, in the example model I presented, Binance, despite only having a 6% hash weight, is the one that profits the most from mining fees. They tend to find more blocks when rates are higher than when they are lower.

Of course, it is not yet possible to see a pattern here, because we are only analyzing a period of one month. But I found this fact curious.

Yeah but if they did it 10 months in a row 1st or 2nd   it would be .2 to the 10 power a real long shot.

So looking at fees for each of the top ten  9 actual and 1 unknown for 10 months would be helpful.

especially for the bottom 3 pools. Since the concept is the fees are random for someone that does not do any hashrate manipulating.

If you never do hash rate under and over clocking to grab fees or shed fees and the others do it you likely end up near the bottom.


Should be fun as the ½ ing lowers the penalty for 6.25 rewards to 3.125 rewards do crowding the mempool will become easier todo in terms of cost.

price is at 42.2k

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   826269  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.4310%  (1726 / 1808.64 expected, 82.64 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                             
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 69873451959502 and 69939175845210
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.5414% and -4.4516%
Previous Retarget:   January 5, 2024 at 7:36 PM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 11:21 AM  (in 2d 2h 18m 52s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 11:41 AM  (in 2d 2h 38m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 15h 45m 14s and 14d 16h 5m 12s

[stompix]

One thing I found interesting, in the example model I presented, Binance, despite only having a 6% hash weight, is the one that profits the most from mining fees. They tend to find more blocks when rates are higher than when they are lower.

Binance is the most curious case of all, sometimes I wonder what is with that pool and if it's even talking to the guys at the exchange

So here you have, Binance sending payments with 240sat/b in a block mined by Foundry:
https://mempool.space/tx/4d776e1cb6722a015a3799d60ef5051bfcb7d1813b473602261f8178131f7307

Binance consolidating (for 2 months already) with 10sat/vb
https://mempool.space/tx/676b9b5dfca7082b8cb0e7665bd55ec2da90f61467e83cdf6914cd2d6152e335

If somebody has an explanation for an exchange with a pool acting like this...I'm glad to hear it!

[joker_josue]

So looking at fees for each of the top ten  9 actual and 1 unknown for 10 months would be helpful.

That's what I'm thinking about doing, based on the tables I've shown.

Do you think it would be useful to add any more details?
What would be the best time interval: difficulty cycle or monthly?

[philipma1957]

So looking at fees for each of the top ten  9 actual and 1 unknown for 10 months would be helpful.

That's what I'm thinking about doing, based on the tables I've shown.

Do you think it would be useful to add any more details?
What would be the best time interval: difficulty cycle or monthly?

if you want to do it by diff it is 26 times a year..

You could do it and commit to doing it that way for 6 months.  which is 26 weeks or 13 times.

We should see trends in very uneven fee patterns by then.

Especially with it being cheaper to do the down then up clock patterns  after the 1/2 ing.


about a day and change to go -4%

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   826425  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.7289%  (1882 / 1965.97 expected, 83.97 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Current Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                            
Next Difficulty:   between 70089939280277 and 70103088713337
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.2456% and -4.2277%
Previous Retarget:   January 5, 2024 at 7:36 PM  (+1.6547%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 10:31 AM  (in 0d 23h 15m 48s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 10:35 AM  (in 0d 23h 19m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 14h 55m 29s and 14d 14h 59m 28s

we ended up -3.8%  which is nice

[joker_josue]

Can you tell me if the difficulty number can be repeated over time?

For example, difficulty 73197634206448 may happen again. Right?

[stompix]

For example, difficulty 73197634206448 may happen again. Right?

Yeah, but it would take a ton of luck, an insane amount of it.
There was a difficulty adjustment of just a 0.1 and even that was way way way off:

637,056   2020-06-30 20:18:49   15,784,217,546,288 - 15.78 T   0.00 %   0x1711d519   10 min 01 s   112.84 EH/s
635,040   2020-06-16 19:51:07   15,784,744,305,477 - 15.78 T   + 14.95 %   0x1711d4f2   08 min 42 s   112.98 EH/s

So the full number I would say impossible, you would right now need exactly this 4.0573947755841075% to go to the previous 

As for the negative adjustment, yeah, a nice breather, we just hit another low for income per th/s since December 2nd, basically we're looking at a 83% increase in price and roughly the same income as a year ago! Not great, not terrible but...still pretty bad!
If Texas powers up, fees keep decreasing we're sliding below 8 again.

And speaking of Texas, this is a new theory, lots of tinfoil!
What if the big guys have actually way more hashrate than Foundry and are mining intentionally either unknow of with some other pool to not trigger a fear of a 51%? All big ones have said they are turning off gear, there was a serious constant drop, but Foundry isn't losing mining share that radically

Over 3 months 28.26%, 1 month 29.07%, 1week 29.24%, 3 days 29.46%, 1 day 31.58%!
So, tinfoil hat on, are they actually mining over antpool and f2pool and others with a part of the gear to disguise the hashrate?

[joker_josue]

Yeah, but it would take a ton of luck, an insane amount of it.
There was a difficulty adjustment of just a 0.1 and even that was way way way off:

637,056   2020-06-30 20:18:49   15,784,217,546,288 - 15.78 T   0.00 %   0x1711d519   10 min 01 s   112.84 EH/s
635,040   2020-06-16 19:51:07   15,784,744,305,477 - 15.78 T   + 14.95 %   0x1711d4f2   08 min 42 s   112.98 EH/s

So the full number I would say impossible, you would right now need exactly this 4.0573947755841075% to go to the previous 

Thank you for the explanation.
In this sense, I can use the difficulty with the reference element to collect information, as it is unlikely that the same number will be repeated. Right?



Regarding your theory, it is really interesting, as it could be another element to take into consideration. And it shows how much of the mining is concentrated in the USA.

[stompix]

In this sense, I can use the difficulty with the reference element to collect information, as it is unlikely that the same number will be repeated. Right?

I would say it's impossible, I can't think of any way to calculate the probability since hashrate fluctuates not only from luck but also from added gear, so it might never adjust backwards but even without this, once you need to hit exactly 16 digits in a % adjustment that would be closer to get not just the lottery numbers but in the right order!

And it shows how much of the mining is concentrated in the USA.

Hashrate, Nodes, ATMs, LN channels, now ETFs, payment gateways, slowly the USA is taking the lead in almost every aspect.
They still lack the volume in US based exchanges and an ASIC manufacturer but wait for it, and for ASICs I wonder what will happen after the halvening, normally an oversupply event should take place!
But, anyhow, the rest it's normal, everything goes where the $ (money) is!

[joker_josue]

In this sense, I can use the difficulty with the reference element to collect information, as it is unlikely that the same number will be repeated. Right?

I would say it's impossible, I can't think of any way to calculate the probability since hashrate fluctuates not only from luck but also from added gear, so it might never adjust backwards but even without this, once you need to hit exactly 16 digits in a % adjustment that would be closer to get not just the lottery numbers but in the right order!

So what do you think of this presentation?


Does the data make sense?
Would you prefer me to present the data in an image or in BBCode?

I'm still creating the table, which will present data on the number of blocks found between various fees intervals.

[philipma1957]

In this sense, I can use the difficulty with the reference element to collect information, as it is unlikely that the same number will be repeated. Right?

I would say it's impossible, I can't think of any way to calculate the probability since hashrate fluctuates not only from luck but also from added gear, so it might never adjust backwards but even without this, once you need to hit exactly 16 digits in a % adjustment that would be closer to get not just the lottery numbers but in the right order!

So what do you think of this presentation?


Does the data make sense?
Would you prefer me to present the data in an image or in BBCode?

I'm still creating the table, which will present data on the number of blocks found between various fees intervals.

add cksolo pool

show fee per block average.  you did this good

list them with the pool with the highest btc per block .you need to do this



if a jump is 2016 blocks and you are not playing with hashrates to raise your fees you should consistently be 6-13th place.

so basically you left out cksolo and you did not list in fee average order.

so kano pool was too small
ckpool was not listed
spiderpool is too small

so the last place pools are

SBIcrypto  3.57 coins a block. 42 blocks

slushpool 4.18 coins a block 29 blocks

so tracking them ten jumps in a row and seeing bad fee average over and over would looking like they are not fucking around.

all the pools above for this jump are fairly close like 4.5 to 4.9

they can be watched

[joker_josue]

so kano pool was too small
ckpool was not listed
spiderpool is too small

I collected the data from here: https://blockchair.com/dumps

This ckpool is not listed. It's probably within the "unknown" parameter.

Do you have another good source for me to find more details on which pool found each block?

[philipma1957]

so kano pool was too small
ckpool was not listed
spiderpool is too small

I collected the data from here: https://blockchair.com/dumps

This ckpool is not listed. It's probably within the "unknown" parameter.

Do you have another good source for me to find more details on which pool found each block?

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=guessed_miner(Solo%20CKPool)

try link above

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=guessed_miner/SoloCKPool

links are fucked up working at it

try this one

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/34


i wonder if you do

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/1

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/2

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/3

up to say

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/99

if you will find everypool

some could be dead

1,2,3 appear dead.

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/4
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/5
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/6

4,5,6 dead closed

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/7 braiins or slush
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/8 dead
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/9 dead

7 is current

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/10
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/11
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/12

all dead so far 1 pool of first 12 seems active

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/13
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/14
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/15

dead

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/16
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/17
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/18
 https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/19
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/20
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/21
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/22 f2pool a major pool
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/23
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/24
 https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/25

so far 2 active pools with a block in the last 2 years the other 23 have not made a block in last 2 years

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/26
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/27
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/28
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/29 antpool
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/30
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/31
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/32
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/33 kano pool
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/34 ckpool
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/35 nicehash

brings us to 6 of 35 still active

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/36
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/37
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/38
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/39
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/40
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/41
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/42
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/43
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/44
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/45

36-45 dead.

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/46
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/47
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/48
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/49
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/50
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/51
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/52
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/53
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/54 viabtc
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/55 btc.com

8 of 55 are active with at least 1 block since block 750,000

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/56
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/57
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/58
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/59
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/60
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/61
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/62
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/63
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/64
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/65

56-65 dead  still found 8 pools

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/66
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/67
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/68
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/69
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/70
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/71
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/72
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/73
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/74
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/75

[joker_josue]

~~

Thank you for the references, and I will look into them.

But, as you can imagine, extracting information from dozens of links and then adding the information I already have will not be practical.  

Don't you know of any website that lists who mined each block? And that has this information with the largest number of pools?


EDIT:
Will this link contain the name of all the pools that mined blocks?
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/blocks

[stompix]

up to say
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/99
if you will find everypool

Nice trick, it might work if Btc has added them at all but you have to go way higher, Foundry is 147 on the list!

So what do you think of this presentation?
I'm still creating the table, which will present data on the number of blocks found between various fees intervals.

You might want to add the maximum spread, so have an average per day and then the min/max data.
So let's say Foundry is at 35 but min is 15 and max is 55. (random numbers here not actual data), same would be for block fee.
But, it's every step is going to involve quite the work, depends on how much passion you put in this!

LE:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/block/826625
Seems like they don't recognize SecPool!

You could alternatively try mempool, they have a  friendlier layout for this and you can guess the pool from the coinbase tag
https://mempool.space/mining/pool/unknown

[philipma1957]

~~

Thank you for the references, and I will look into them.

But, as you can imagine, extracting information from dozens of links and then adding the information I already have will not be practical.  

Don't you know of any website that lists who mined each block? And that has this information with the largest number of pools?


EDIT:
Will this link contain the name of all the pools that mined blocks?
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/blocks

it could miss a few but would be very complete

[joker_josue]

You might want to add the maximum spread, so have an average per day and then the min/max data.
So let's say Foundry is at 35 but min is 15 and max is 55. (random numbers here not actual data), same would be for block fee.
But, it's every step is going to involve quite the work, depends on how much passion you put in this!

I didn't understand the idea. Can you explain better?

What would these "calculations" be like?

You could alternatively try mempool, they have a  friendlier layout for this and you can guess the pool from the coinbase tag
https://mempool.space/mining/pool/unknown

Is there a website that simply lists the number of blocks and what is written on coinbase tag?
Something like this, but with longer information:
https://coin.dance/blocks#blockDetails

it could miss a few but would be very complete

I'll add this information so we have a larger list of pools.

[philipma1957]

newhedge.io

Latest Block:   826748  (22 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.3282%  (189 / 200.36 expected, 11.36 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                            
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 66787089709304 and 69680412896091
Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.0558% and -0.9427%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 9:19 AM  (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 3, 2024 at 12:56 PM  (in 12d 18h 12m 59s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 4, 2024 at 5:31 AM  (in 13d 10h 48m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 36m 37s and 14d 20h 12m 11s

so a bit in and a bit off far too soon 🔜 to worry



fees are better

https://mempool.jhoenicke.de/#BTC,1y,count



diff is flat but early

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   826880  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.9369%  (321 / 321.20 expected, 0.2 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Next Difficulty:   between 70414080794710 and 70584844209848
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1003% and +0.3431%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 9:19 AM  (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 3, 2024 at 9:23 AM  (in 11d 18h 31m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 3, 2024 at 9:32 AM  (in 11d 18h 40m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 3m 43s and 14d 0h 12m 43s

[alh]

In terms of dollars, some of these changes seem less impressive. BTC price has slipped to $39,978.

[stompix]

I didn't understand the idea. Can you explain better?
What would these "calculations" be like?

The maximum reward Foundry got in an epoch for a block and the minimum, it would help point out irregularities, since if you see Foundry or any other constantly doing over 3 or 5 periods a maximum block fee two times the size of others then there must be something weird happening, same for a pool who has no variance whatsoever or for a pool that constantly mines blocks with low fees since it would mean they are maybe pushing a lot of their own transactions!!

But it would mean a lot of work and don't know if the results would really point out something!

Is there a website that simply lists the number of blocks and what is written on coinbase tag?
Something like this, but with longer information:
https://coin.dance/blocks#blockDetails

Not that I'm aware of unfortunately!

And lift-off, positive territory again,

Current Pace:   102.6297%  (423 / 412.16 expected, 10.84 ahead)

I see Dallas going from  min of -7C on Sunday to a min of +7C so the cold snap in Texas is over, so...maybe a 4% up now?

[joker_josue]

The maximum reward Foundry got in an epoch for a block and the minimum, it would help point out irregularities, since if you see Foundry or any other constantly doing over 3 or 5 periods a maximum block fee two times the size of others then there must be something weird happening, same for a pool who has no variance whatsoever or for a pool that constantly mines blocks with low fees since it would mean they are maybe pushing a lot of their own transactions!!

But it would mean a lot of work and don't know if the results would really point out something!

It will not be exactly difficult to carry out this analysis.
The data I have indicates the average fee for each block (if I'm not mistaken), so it is possible to understand in which fee range each miner is earning.

In practice, what you suggest and I will analyze it, according to this example I gave: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5480022.msg63509587#msg63509587
Or it would include another type of calculation.



I'm currently looking for a way to minimize the "unknown" pool names. But making it almost automatic is not easy. 

[philipma1957]

The maximum reward Foundry got in an epoch for a block and the minimum, it would help point out irregularities, since if you see Foundry or any other constantly doing over 3 or 5 periods a maximum block fee two times the size of others then there must be something weird happening, same for a pool who has no variance whatsoever or for a pool that constantly mines blocks with low fees since it would mean they are maybe pushing a lot of their own transactions!!

But it would mean a lot of work and don't know if the results would really point out something!

It will not be exactly difficult to carry out this analysis.
The data I have indicates the average fee for each block (if I'm not mistaken), so it is possible to understand in which fee range each miner is earning.

In practice, what you suggest and I will analyze it, according to this example I gave: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5480022.msg63509587#msg63509587
Or it would include another type of calculation.



I'm currently looking for a way to minimize the "unknown" pool names. But making it almost automatic is not easy.  

you will not be prefect on the unknown pools.

if you look up the pools via the links I gave you will find at least 147 pools as foundry is 147

over 100 will not have made a block in the last 200,000 blocks

so you kind of need to find the highest number after 147. then knock out at least 120 pools do do either inactivity or so small they have not hit a block in the last 200,000 blocks.


I am thinking 99% of the blocks made are by the top 20 pools.


https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/147  = foundry

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/148 = SBI Crypto

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/149

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/150

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/151

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/152 = Mara Pool

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/153 = KuCoin Pool

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/154 = unknown may be the end of listed pools

So 153 pools listed and If you drop all of the ones that did not make a block higher than  745,000

you will be over 99% of blocks made.

thats good enough.

of the 153 to check I believe only 30 or have made a recent block.

[joker_josue]

you will be over 99% of blocks made.

thats good enough.

of the 153 to check I believe only 30 or have made a recent block.

At this stage of development of the analysis, in 4000 blocks, I was unable to almost automatically identify the miners of 129 blocks.
This means that I was unable to identify about 3%. I don't know if it's worth spending time doing a manual check for that 3%.

Even so, I did a manual check, and noticed that several of these blocks were mined by WhitePool and SecPool. So I'm still in the dilemma of trying to get even more information.

This now seems to take a long time, but once I have the file ready, I will be able to update the data in a few minutes. 

[philipma1957]

you will be over 99% of blocks made.

thats good enough.

of the 153 to check I believe only 30 or have made a recent block.

At this stage of development of the analysis, in 4000 blocks, I was unable to almost automatically identify the miners of 129 blocks.
This means that I was unable to identify about 3%. I don't know if it's worth spending time doing a manual check for that 3%.

Even so, I did a manual check, and noticed that several of these blocks were mined by WhitePool and SecPool. So I'm still in the dilemma of trying to get even more information.

This now seems to take a long time, but once I have the file ready, I will be able to update the data in a few minutes. 

that I understand first time is a bitch you can then manipulate data. 

We know some people are solo mining with custom firmware so you will not get every block identified.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   827486  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.5550%  (927 / 869.97 expected, 57.03 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Next Difficulty:   between 73624253423968 and 75066730030273
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.6639% and +6.7145%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 9:19 AM  (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 2, 2024 at 12:39 PM  (in 7d 2h 20m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 2, 2024 at 6:41 PM  (in 7d 8h 21m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 19m 48s and 13d 9h 21m 40s

[joker_josue]

Guys, here's the final version of the analysis of difficulty cycles and mining pools.




Before creating a dedicated topic, what do you think?

[paid2]

Guys, here's the final version of the analysis of difficulty cycles and mining pools.
-snip-
Before creating a dedicated topic, what do you think?

Well done!

About the 3% unknown pools, it is nothing unusual, I would have bet on more heh

[philipma1957]

Just post them in a new thread. Be sure to us self modded to prevent it from being trashed. I do like what you did.

[joker_josue]

Just post them in a new thread. Be sure to us self modded to prevent it from being trashed. I do like what you did.

Topic created:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5483213

If you think I opened it in the wrong section or if the title should be improved, let me know. 

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   827797  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   108.1361%  (1238 / 1144.85 expected, 93.15 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Next Difficulty:   between 75227911099053 and 76153220048702
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.9436% and +8.2590%
Previous Retarget:   January 20, 2024 at 9:19 AM  (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 8:02 AM  (in 4d 23h 54m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 11:48 AM  (in 5d 3h 40m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 22h 43m 10s and 13d 2h 29m 4s

big move up  if it continues we have a new ATH in under 6 days

[stompix]

At 8% if it will be the case this is going to be the largest jump in hashrate ever, of course it comes after a decline but still it might go above 40 Exashah, the previous records were 34 and 30, it's just insane how it keep growing.

Fees down, price recovering a bit, with this ew jump we're going back to 7.5 cents per th/s.
Also fees in % reward has hit a new low of 5%, lowest point since November.
And riot is planning 100 exahash till 2025 

Funny thing, with all these swings 4% down and 8% up the hashrate still looks just as distributed as previously, as If every single thing is affecting all pools nearly the same with little variance.

[philipma1957]

At 8% if it will be the case this is going to be the largest jump in hashrate ever, of course it comes after a decline but still it might go above 40 Exashah, the previous records were 34 and 30, it's just insane how it keep growing.

Fees down, price recovering a bit, with this ew jump we're going back to 7.5 cents per th/s.
Also fees in % reward has hit a new low of 5%, lowest point since November.
And riot is planning 100 exahash till 2025 

Funny thing, with all these swings 4% down and 8% up the hashrate still looks just as distributed as previously, as If every single thing is affecting all pools nearly the same with little variance.

https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020240128174200794o5YnuS1A069A


more salt above

[alh]

So the summary of the two above comments and some rough math, the s19j for $3473 will produce in revenue about $11.35 per day. If you have "free" electricity, if this were to continue, your miner would be paid off in about 306 days. The next halving will happen during those 300 days, so it will obviously extend past 306 days.

Is this summary reasonably accurate?

[philipma1957]

So the summary of the two above comments and some rough math, the s19j for $3473 will produce in revenue about $11.35 per day. If you have "free" electricity, if this were to continue, your miner would be paid off in about 306 days. The next halving will happen during those 300 days, so it will obviously extend past 306 days.

Is this summary reasonably accurate?

No. coupons reduce price to 2431 .

If you have limited free power ie you can run 1 of these free its cheap.

first 90 days you get back 1000. Next 90 days you get 500. So if it arrives feb 5 or 6 you get a lot back fast.

If you have free power.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   828303  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   106.6479%  (1744 / 1635.29 expected, 108.71 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Next Difficulty:   between 74987693912964 and 75079599442511
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.6021% and +6.7328%
Previous Retarget:   January 20, 2024 at 9:19 AM  (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 12:22 PM  (in 1d 18h 30m 26s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 12:45 PM  (in 1d 18h 53m 19s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 3m 19s and 13d 3h 26m 11s

[joker_josue]

It seems that that logic, that many miners turned off their machines, because of the cold problems in Texas, makes some sense.

We spent a good part of this cycle with a value close to 0%, and now in the final phase it is almost 8%. Many turning on the machines.

[stompix]

https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020240128174200794o5YnuS1A069A
more salt above

Bitmain dumping the j xp series, so they are probably done with the S19 and only focus on the S21 from now
But honestly ...
After Coupon 16.1 $/T vs  17.5 $/T with  one at 21.5J/T and the other at 17.5J/T
Still the s21 look more attractive with coupons (of course if you have them)
They also dropped the price of the hydro to 8.4 $/T, but the efficiency on that is just bad!

Still weird, they have a ton of pre-orders, do they have also a ton of stock, I wonder if we'll see the most efficient gear at $10/th if the halving doesn't come with a price bump!

Latest Block:   828397  (31 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.9973%  (1838 / 1734.01 expected, 103.99 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 9:18 PM  (in 1d 3h 59m 17s)

Down to more realistic figures, so counting the -3.8% last time it because just an average of ~1% per two weeks, rounding error.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator




Latest Block:   828552  (29 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   107.0725%  (1993 / 1861.36 expected, 131.64 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Next Difficulty:   between 75370496794130 and 75371197957724
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.1463% and +7.1473%
Previous Retarget:   January 20, 2024 at 9:19 AM  (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 11:07 AM  (in 0d 3h 34m 48s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 11:08 AM  (in 0d 3h 34m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 1h 48m 21s and 13d 1h 48m 32s

picked pace up 🆙  131 plus blocks amost one day ahead.

[mikeywith]

Latest Block:   828397  (31 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.9973%  (1838 / 1734.01 expected, 103.99 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 9:18 PM  (in 1d 3h 59m 17s)

Down to more realistic figures, so counting the -3.8% last time it because just an average of ~1% per two weeks, rounding error.

Outch, the last set of blocks was insane, we finished at 7.33% and that is really going to hurt, i think people are trying to maximize their hashrate before the halving, i think we could see more jumps like that, fudge.

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   828397  (31 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.9973%  (1838 / 1734.01 expected, 103.99 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 9:18 PM  (in 1d 3h 59m 17s)

Down to more realistic figures, so counting the -3.8% last time it because just an average of ~1% per two weeks, rounding error.

Outch, the last set of blocks was insane, we finished at 7.33% and that is really going to hurt, i think people are trying to maximize their hashrate before the halving, i think we could see more jumps like that, fudge.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   828751  (16 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   121.8286%  (176 / 144.47 expected, 31.53 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Next Difficulty:   between 77883462687748 and 92425765237003
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.1539% and +22.4147%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 13, 2024 at 10:23 PM  (in 10d 11h 43m 10s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 16, 2024 at 12:32 AM  (in 12d 13h 52m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 11d 11h 47m 50s and 13d 13h 56m 50s

31 extra blocks in just about 1 day.

brutal numbers yeah variance bla bla bla. but 176 vs 144 is nuts 🥜

Lets see if we continue at that pace.

[joker_josue]

31 extra blocks in just about 1 day.

brutal numbers yeah variance bla bla bla. but 176 vs 144 is nuts 🥜

Lets see if we continue at that pace.

If things continue at this rate, will the cycle end sooner, or will it even mine more blocks than normal?

[philipma1957]

31 extra blocks in just about 1 day.

brutal numbers yeah variance bla bla bla. but 176 vs 144 is nuts 🥜

Lets see if we continue at that pace.

If things continue at this rate, will the cycle end sooner, or will it even mine more blocks than normal?

cycles are 2015/2016 blocks always.

but time is faster or slower.

[stompix]

Outch, the last set of blocks was insane, we finished at 7.33% and that is really going to hurt, i think people are trying to maximize their hashrate before the halving, i think we could see more jumps like that, fudge.

And we have one of the fastest start

Latest Block:   828776  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   121.5151%  (201 / 165.41 expected, 35.59 ahead)

Of course this is luck no way there are 120 exahash of gear coming online but there must be at least a few % there for real.
So income is down, but luckily for some, someone took a dump on the mempool and we're back at 500sat/b
https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000001721a92c27d40e9d0579be5e150be0318a481c8d2d1c0

brutal numbers yeah variance bla bla bla. but 176 vs 144 is nuts 🥜
Lets see if we continue at that pace.

It won't!
I know you never say never an nothing is impossible but this thing truly is.

[mikeywith]

cycles are 2015/2016 blocks always.

but time is faster or slower.

Ya, 2016 blocks make a difficulty epoch, however, due to a bug in the code the first block of each round is always ignored in the calculation, so even if takes too long to solve the first block -- it won't affect the diff change, besides other things, even if hashrate was constant difficulty would still increase.

@stompix, the halving is going to be brutal regardless, i lost interest in all the small details the precede it, nothing matters now, not until the halving sets a new ground for everyone to walk on ( or crawl on for many others).

[philipma1957]

cycles are 2015/2016 blocks always.

but time is faster or slower.

Ya, 2016 blocks make a difficulty epoch, however, due to a bug in the code the first block of each round is always ignored in the calculation, so even if takes too long to solve the first block -- it won't affect the diff change, besides other things, even if hashrate was constant difficulty would still increase.

@stompix, the halving is going to be brutal regardless, i lost interest in all the small details the precede it, nothing matters now, not until the halving sets a new ground for everyone to walk on ( or crawl on for many others).

yeah it simply depends on the counting of the starting block.

121% is truly a magnificent number. It will kill my mining if we do 20% jumps.  But I can see us going way past 800eh by apr 1 2024.

which I do not think is possible.  But what do I know. Not much

[mikeywith]

121% is truly a magnificent number. It will kill my mining if we do 20% jumps.  But I can see us going way past 800eh by apr 1 2024.

which I do not think is possible.  But what do I know. Not much

121% in a single epoch is against physics and economics, noway on earth it's going to keep the pace, we will end up with a small increase of 2-3% IMO.

[joker_josue]

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined. 

Latest Block:   828872  (24 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   116.1621%  (297 / 255.68 expected, 41.32 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Next Difficulty:   between 78534435562512 and 87942783188022
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.0161% and +16.4772%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 3:35 PM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 14, 2024 at 4:50 PM  (in 10d 6h 38m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 16, 2024 at 2:49 AM  (in 11d 16h 37m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 1h 15m 3s and 13d 11h 14m 25s

[mikeywith]

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined. 

This has nothing to do with actual hashrate, even at static speed time intervals between blocks follow exponential distribution.

With the mean being 10 mins, If you plot the half an hour in a cdf function you will get 4.98%, which means nearly 5% of all blocks are found after half an hour regardless of the hashrate.

 

[philipma1957]

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined.  

This has nothing to do with actual hashrate, even at static speed time intervals between blocks follow exponential distribution.

With the mean being 10 mins, If you plot the half an hour in a cdf function you will get 4.98%, which means nearly 5% of all blocks are found after half an hour regardless of the hashrate.

 

yeah barring a massive network wide cut back of gear ⚙️.

you need to go to an hour wait to call it unusual.

and two hours to be a real longshot. two wait time is a very rare event.

an hour is 0.0025 or 1 time every 400 blocks

two hours is 0.00000625 or 1 time every 160,000 blocks.

There are qualifiers to those numbers as they assume the actual gear running is really running.

Ie if every miner in the world said fu I am turning off my gear to prove a point we could go a month with ease.

But we all know that there is no way every miner in the world will power off.

[joker_josue]

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined. 

This has nothing to do with actual hashrate, even at static speed time intervals between blocks follow exponential distribution.

With the mean being 10 mins, If you plot the half an hour in a cdf function you will get 4.98%, which means nearly 5% of all blocks are found after half an hour regardless of the hashrate.

Yes, I know that!

I just found it funny, that we had a lower difficulty than "necessary" for the current hash, and that we even had several blocks of advancement, only to see a block taking so long to come out.

Just a joke, but that's how probabilities work, sometimes faster and sometimes slower, no matter the hash.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   829048  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   113.8441%  (473 / 415.48 expected, 57.52 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Next Difficulty:   between 79557588921358 and 86098122629700
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.3713% and +14.0340%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 14, 2024 at 5:43 PM  (in 9d 9h 53m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 15, 2024 at 5:39 PM  (in 10d 9h 49m 45s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 7h 8m 25s and 13d 7h 4m 33s

A 13% gain seems  too high basically we are doing 160 blocks a day vs 144 blocks.

If it holds true or drops to 10% it will be over 60eh of gear that is 300,000 s21's at 3,500 each

300,000 x 3500 = 1,050,000,000 just over 1 billion in gear added.

and 300,000 x 3.9 = 1,170,000 kwatts  which is 1,170 mega watts per hour. 

The average home in the US uses 1.2 kwatts per hour.

So this uptick could power close to 1 million USA homes.

[joker_josue]

~~

How do you know the total hash power being used on the network?
Is there any source of information that has the record by day or block?

[philipma1957]

~~

How do you know the total hash power being used on the network?
Is there any source of information that has the record by day or block?

it is a mere estimate based on the difficulty and blocks made against it.

we are near 600eh.

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart

So 10% is 60eh

It is always a ballpark number . Very unlikely to be a prefect estimate.

but the 600eh is maybe 570-630eh range so ten percent is

57-63 eh gain.

[DaveF]

121% is truly a magnificent number. It will kill my mining if we do 20% jumps.  But I can see us going way past 800eh by apr 1 2024.

which I do not think is possible.  But what do I know. Not much

121% in a single epoch is against physics and economics, noway on earth it's going to keep the pace, we will end up with a small increase of 2-3% IMO.

There are probably a bunch of people giving older gear that was off one last run before they sell it after the 1/2ing.
Yes you could probably buy the BTC at a better rate, but if it's there and idle might as well turn it on and get some BTC.

Goes against logic, but I have seen it with my own eyes. There is NO possible way a T17 can make any BTC with $0.06 power but there are a bunch that were on since mid January in the colo that have been off for months.

-Dave

[joker_josue]

it is a mere estimate based on the difficulty and blocks made against it.

we are near 600eh.

Thanks.
Maybe I'll add this information to my analysis table that I'm doing. I have to think about it and the best way to do it.

Can you tell me how the calculations are made? What information are they based on?

[mikeywith]

Can you tell me how the calculations are made? What information are they based on?

(blocks solved per x time/expected number of blocks x time) * difficulty * 2^32 )/600


If x you trying for is 1 day, then
(blocks solved in this day/144) * difficulty * 2^32 )/600

144 comes from 1440 mins in a day / 10 mins which is the expected block time.

Of course, the smaller the timeframe the less accurate the answer is.

[joker_josue]

(blocks solved per x time/expected number of blocks x time) * difficulty * 2^32 )/600


If x you trying for is 1 day, then
(blocks solved in this day/144) * difficulty * 2^32 )/600

144 comes from 1440 mins in a day / 10 mins which is the expected block time.

Of course, the smaller the timeframe the less accurate the answer is.

Why divide by 600?
The "difficulty" is the difficulty number of the respective cycle, right?

I will be able to do this in half a cycle file, with these calculations, since I don't have to collect more data than I have. 

[mikeywith]

Why divide by 600?

Because the hashrate result you are going to get is going to be the number of hashes without a time unit, which is hard to understand, so you would need to convert it to hashes per unit time, which in this example = seconds, since the expected block time is 10 mins, that gives you 600 seconds.

the final result you get is going to be represented in hashes/second, which is going to be a huge number, you are going to have to divide it by 1000000000000000000 to get the Exahash (commonly used in this thread and most places) if you want the PH representation you divide it by 1000000000000000

The "difficulty" is the difficulty number of the respective cycle, right?

Correct.

Here is an example of the last 24 hours hashrarte, in the last 24 hours, 157 blocks were found, the current difficulty is 75502165623893.72, so the formula is

Code:

((157/144) * 75502165623893.72 * 2^32 )/600/1000000000000000000

The result is 589EH

if you check any hashrate chart it would be within that figure.

Obviously, to repeat again, these are not 100% accurate figures, but it's the only way to make a calculated/educated guess, many if not most large pools publish their "actual" hashrate, which also isn't 100% accurate since they use the same logic to figure out the individual miners hashrate, so the end result is all quite the same.

[joker_josue]

Obviously, to repeat again, these are not 100% accurate figures, but it's the only way to make a calculated/educated guess, many if not most large pools publish their "actual" hashrate, which also isn't 100% accurate since they use the same logic to figure out the individual miners hashrate, so the end result is all quite the same.

Thanks for the clarification. 

I think I will add this information to the data for the next cycle. I just have to see how it gets better.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   829248  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   113.0745%  (673 / 595.18 expected, 77.82 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Next Difficulty:   between 80741089837944 and 85473024468320
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.9388% and +13.2061%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 14, 2024 at 7:44 PM  (in 8d 5h 57m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 15, 2024 at 12:58 PM  (in 8d 23h 11m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 9h 8m 57s and 13d 2h 23m 25s


still very high 13% is massive.

[stompix]

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined.  

Probabilities and luck are always paying games with human minds!
I'm watching the races right now and it's the 8th favorite under 5/4 so 2.25 odds to get trashed in a row, I almost feel tempted to put a bet on the last horse of the day without even knowing his time form  because we must have at least one winning, right, after so many loses!

Same with blocks, if you're paying the minimum fee but you're in a hurry get ready, for sure the next block will be half an hour late!  

121% in a single epoch is against physics and economics, noway on earth it's going to keep the pace, we will end up with a small increase of 2-3% IMO.

we all knew 121% was out of discussion but..

Latest Block:   829550  (21 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   110.6209%  (975 / 881.39 expected, 93.61 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 15, 2024 at 9:19 AM  (in 6d 12h 50m 31s)

10% is still madness ?
I expected it to drop like a stone in the next few days but seems not slowing that much down, in the last 24 hours we had 148, 24 hour before 159 blocks, I know S21 are being put online everywhere but are they really that many?

@stompix, the halving is going to be brutal regardless,

I have the luxury of not caring that much anymore, even if I start losing money the growth has made up for it , I'm in a "bring it on, show me the worse" mode.
But the rest, I don't ant to be a miner with 100+ asics on more than 6 cents two months from now!
With one exception, if it's not my money but investors in that gear, then I couldn't care less also!

[philipma1957]

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined.  

Probabilities and luck are always paying games with human minds!
I'm watching the races right now and it's the 8th favorite under 5/4 so 2.25 odds to get trashed in a row, I almost feel tempted to put a bet on the last horse of the day without even knowing his time form  because we must have at least one winning, right, after so many loses!

Same with blocks, if you're paying the minimum fee but you're in a hurry get ready, for sure the next block will be half an hour late!  

121% in a single epoch is against physics and economics, noway on earth it's going to keep the pace, we will end up with a small increase of 2-3% IMO.

we all knew 121% was out of discussion but..

Latest Block:   829550  (21 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   110.6209%  (975 / 881.39 expected, 93.61 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 15, 2024 at 9:19 AM  (in 6d 12h 50m 31s)

10% is still madness ?
I expected it to drop like a stone in the next few days but seems not slowing that much down, in the last 24 hours we had 148, 24 hour before 159 blocks, I know S21 are being put online everywhere but are they really that many?

@stompix, the halving is going to be brutal regardless,

I have the luxury of not caring that much anymore, even if I start losing money the growth has made up for it , I'm in a "bring it on, show me the worse" mode.
But the rest, I don't ant to be a miner with 100+ asics on more than 6 cents two months from now!
With one exception, if it's not my money but investors in that gear, then I couldn't care less also!

well six cents has basically almost always worked. i am interested in seeing what it does.

[joker_josue]

10% is still madness ?
I expected it to drop like a stone in the next few days but seems not slowing that much down, in the last 24 hours we had 148, 24 hour before 159 blocks, I know S21 are being put online everywhere but are they really that many?

Do we have any new equipment being tested that has not yet been announced? Something that will really "revolutionize" the market?

Well, this "revolutionizing the market" part is already a very high expectation on my part. 

[mikeywith]

10% is still madness ?

It still is, we talking roughly 50EH or 60EH of new gear which I think is not possible either, we are half way into this epoch, I think we would still drop.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   829661  (10 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   110.0058%  (1086 / 987.22 expected, 98.78 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Next Difficulty:   between 81369055774156 and 83115003780222
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.7705% and +10.0829%
Previous Retarget:   February 2, 2024 at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 4:01 AM  (in 5d 20h 54m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 10:31 AM  (in 6d 3h 24m 19s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 17h 26m 18s and 12d 23h 56m 31s

still whaling

[stompix]

well six cents has basically almost always worked. i am interested in seeing what it does.

Yeah that thing was valid when BTC was at 42k but when you get 10% in under 5 days and 5% up in a day with income per th/s probably going above 9 cents again things start to change quite radically. So the 6cents/kwh border might become only 8cents/kwh if this things hits previous ATH levels, this despite the growth in hasharate.

Eveything becomes muddy again.

Do we have any new equipment being tested that has not yet been announced? Something that will really "revolutionize" the market?
Well, this "revolutionizing the market" part is already a very high expectation on my part. 

Doubt it! S21 is already itself a giant pace in efficiency, I doubt that Bitmain has another ace hidden that it plans to release after the halving to screw everybody!
This unless they ar already able to do it with 3nm, but with the current geo-poli-eco madness I don't see them bein first in line at TSMC for that.

[philipma1957]

well six cents has basically almost always worked. i am interested in seeing what it does.

Yeah that thing was valid when BTC was at 42k but when you get 10% in under 5 days and 5% up in a day with income per th/s probably going above 9 cents again things start to change quite radically. So the 6cents/kwh border might become only 8cents/kwh if this things hits previous ATH levels, this despite the growth in hasharate.

Eveything becomes muddy again.

Do we have any new equipment being tested that has not yet been announced? Something that will really "revolutionize" the market?
Well, this "revolutionizing the market" part is already a very high expectation on my part. 

Doubt it! S21 is already itself a giant pace in efficiency, I doubt that Bitmain has another ace hidden that it plans to release after the halving to screw everybody!
This unless they ar already able to do it with 3nm, but with the current geo-poli-eco madness I don't see them bein first in line at TSMC for that.

they have no need to put out the s21xp but if coins go to 75k they may decide to put one out..

they always need to pace gear. and with this huge amount coming on line this jump they will not make a new model just yet.

The s19 pro and s19 xp came out around a year apart.

[mikeywith]

Doubt it! S21 is already itself a giant pace in efficiency, I doubt that Bitmain has another ace hidden that it plans to release after the halving to screw everybody!
This unless they ar already able to do it with 3nm, but with the current geo-poli-eco madness I don't see them bein first in line at TSMC for that.

They can stuff more of the same chips in a single miner and end up with a more efficient and powerful gear, higher cost but it all depends on what the market is post halving.

[philipma1957]

Doubt it! S21 is already itself a giant pace in efficiency, I doubt that Bitmain has another ace hidden that it plans to release after the halving to screw everybody!
This unless they ar already able to do it with 3nm, but with the current geo-poli-eco madness I don't see them bein first in line at TSMC for that.

They can stuff more of the same chips in a single miner and end up with a more efficient and powerful gear, higher cost but it all depends on what the market is post halving.

Yeah if we have an early ATH and it just keeps moving well they will want to sell a s21 xp doing 240th and 3500 watts. But right now btc price is too low for them to sell that.

[philipma1957]

some relief we are at 8.9%

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   829982  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   108.9222%  (1407 / 1291.75 expected, 115.25 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Next Difficulty:   between 81613810923868 and 82282644634810
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.0947% and +8.9805%
Previous Retarget:   February 2, 2024 at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 7:03 AM  (in 3d 21h 11m 8s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 9:34 AM  (in 3d 23h 41m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 20h 28m 37s and 12d 22h 59m 19s

70% into the jump..  Maybe we back off to 7%

[stompix]

some relief we are at 8.9%

Back in the frying pan, or is it in the fire from the pan? 

Latest Block:   830193  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   109.6655%  (1618 / 1475.40 expected, 142.6 ahead)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 1:07 PM  (in 2d 13h 38m 28s)

Two days to go and we're at 179!!!!! blocks int he last 24 hours, seems almost impossible to get it back under 7, but who knows
Price broke 50k so no slowdown coming from there, maybe quite the opposite, I wouldn't be surprised to see bitmain rising prices!

[philipma1957]

some relief we are at 8.9%

Back in the frying pan, or is it in the fire from the pan?  

Latest Block:   830193  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   109.6655%  (1618 / 1475.40 expected, 142.6 ahead)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 1:07 PM  (in 2d 13h 38m 28s)

Two days to go and we're at 179!!!!! blocks int he last 24 hours, seems almost impossible to get it back under 7, but who knows
Price broke 50k so no slowdown coming from there, maybe quite the opposite, I wouldn't be surprised to see bitmain rising prices!

for miners 50k is about to turn into 25k if bitmain jumps price it wont sell.

if we are at 65k with these diff jumps it will be brutal when the ½ ing comes.


edit we faded a bit

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   830294  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   108.8490%  (1719 / 1579.25 expected, 139.75 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                            
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Next Difficulty:   between 82060875253569 and 82219326002722
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.6868% and +8.8966%
Previous Retarget:   February 2, 2024 at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 7:16 AM  (in 1d 21h 28m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 7:51 AM  (in 1d 22h 4m 7s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 20h 41m 4s and 12d 21h 16m 38s

Not sure if we fade to 8% or go back over 9%

either number is huge and cancels out the price rise to 49-50k

we are at 8.6 cents a th
  this jump drops us to 7.9 cents a th

and the ½ ing drops us to  3.95 cents a th

so take your new s21 and 4 x 200 = 8 dollars uses 90 kwatts a day or 5.4 usd

so 8-5.4 = 2.6 dollars a day about a 1500 day roi at six cents.

I use six cents because it is the number that has worked for profit since the beginning of mining.

Now if you are all xp's you make 140 x 4 = 5.60 and burn 4.80 an 80 cent profit which is a 3000 day payback at 6 cent power.

For miners to be out of the wood after the ½ ing we need to be over 70k price fast

[mikeywith]

Phil, i don't think the 6 cents/Kwh holds true anymore, i believe it has changed when the U.S miners took over, we saw deals of 2-3 cents for some of those large players.

Post halving, I think anything above 5 cents and or above 30w/th won't do good for a good while until the markets whale.

As for the pace, the last 24 hours had an average block of 10.6 mins, so we are indeed slowing down, but i doubt we go below 7% for this epoch, which still offset the price increase.

[joker_josue]

As for the pace, the last 24 hours had an average block of 10.6 mins, so we are indeed slowing down, but i doubt we go below 7% for this epoch, which still offset the price increase.

I agree. Many machines had to be turned off so that the value drops significantly in these last 2 days of the cycle.

But, this cycle was interesting and I believe positive, blocks leaving easily, low fees and some appreciation of BTC. Will we be able to keep low fees in the next cycle and the price of BTC continues in a positive phase?

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   830417  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   107.7672%  (1842 / 1709.24 expected, 132.76 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                            
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Next Difficulty:   between 81352155141711 and 81399490113170
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.7481% and +7.8108%
Previous Retarget:   February 2, 2024 at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 10:22 AM  (in 1d 2h 54m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 10:33 AM  (in 1d 3h 5m 24s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 23h 46m 59s and 12d 23h 57m 49s

174 blocks to go

will we drop under 7% or go back over 8%

price is pushing 52k

from new hedge link above


Latest Block:   830583  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   107.9749%  (2008 / 1859.69 expected, 148.31 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                            
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Next Difficulty:   between 81553628518803 and 81553731450838
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.0150% and +8.0151%
Previous Retarget:   February 2, 2024 at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 9:46 AM  (in 0d 1h 14m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 9:46 AM  (in 0d 1h 14m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 23h 11m 0s and 12d 23h 11m 1s


Just about 8%

price was 43000 on feb 2
price is now 52200 on feb 15   so price is up 21%


okay that seems good for miners right.  lets look at fee action from this thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5483213.msg63571239#msg63571239




fees were huge the prior jump

new numbers will be out soon and show a drop in fees from 2 coins a block to a ½ coin

So miners are losing ground and the ½ ing is coming.






we are in the gray zone see below.


Latest Block:   830591  (35 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.0000%  (0 / 3.48 expected, 3.48 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   undefined                                    
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Next Difficulty:   between 75502165623893 and 75502165623893
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0000% and +0.0000%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 9:07 AM  (NaN%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 29, 2024 at 9:41 AM  (in 14d 0h 0m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 29, 2024 at 9:41 AM  (in 14d 0h 0m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 34m 46s and 14d 0h 34m 46s




I rarely catch this on my screen shots.

it will update on next block.

my thanks to newhedge.io

[stompix]

I think the difficulty is going to take a break for  while
+7.3% and now +8.2%, that makes up for 16.1% in a month, we're poking at 600exa so another 16% would be some half a million S21!!!!
That would mean roughly
- 1.750 MW
- $2.5 billion (assuming no coupons)

No way this is going to repeat itself!

Latest Block:   830688  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   92.9937%  (97 / 104.31 expected, 7.31 behind)

I'm not really going to bet on a negative but anything over 3% would still be insane.

Btw , looking at that table and at
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-pools
Binance pool is losing marketshare seriously lately, I wonder how their "cloud' mining goes!

[joker_josue]

I'm not really going to bet on a negative but anything over 3% would still be insane.

But, because of this recent appreciation of BTC, might not greater hash power arise, as it compensates for connecting older machines?

It may not have much of an impact, but I believe that with Bitcoin at around $50k, many miners who have old machines will start calling again as it is already profitable.

[stompix]

But, because of this recent appreciation of BTC, might not greater hash power arise, as it compensates for connecting older machines?

If we go for November numbers so a bit of the extreme:
we were at 35k and went to 52k , that's close to 50%
447 exa and 583 exa now that's 30%
so that much increase in hashrate is really chewing at the increase in income per th/s.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-mining_profitability.html#3m



I seriously doubt that there is enough gear to make up for 18 exahash so 50 000 older S19 that lose money at 8 cents but are profitable at 9.
So not a question of not being there but being there in such a number!
And would all those have immediate access to all that power? 50k gear is still 150MW..

If we have a 2-3 maybe even 4% spike it will be because of new gear bought on credit not reactivation of tens of thousands of miners, or at least that's what I believe.

[philipma1957]

I'm not really going to bet on a negative but anything over 3% would still be insane.

But, because of this recent appreciation of BTC, might not greater hash power arise, as it compensates for connecting older machines?

It may not have much of an impact, but I believe that with Bitcoin at around $50k, many miners who have old machines will start calling again as it is already profitable.

No here is why.

blocks were 8 coins even 9 coins. first two jumps of the year
now under 7 blocks

diff jumped 16% .

so a block of 9 coins at 40k vs a block of 6.8 coins at 52k is about 360k either way.

this means the price jump was fully canceled by the fee drop.

but wait we had a 16% diff jump up so this means two jumps back you got 360k

now you get 360k x .84 = 302.4 k. so miners have been crushed since 2 jumps passed.

360k vs 303k or

or 100 drops to 84 .  and the ½ ing is comiing. which means

that 84 turns into 42. 

we (miners) are being crushed.

we need 95k by may 1 to be close to today. we need 120k to be equal to the very high jan 1 earnings which were 13 cents a th. we are hurting and coming to a cliff. by we miners. today i advise buying coin not mining it.

[joker_josue]

we need 95k by may 1 to be close to today. we need 120k to be equal to the very high jan 1 earnings which were 13 cents a th. we are hurting and coming to a cliff. by we miners. today i advise buying coin not mining it.

Well, I think this will be the increasing danger. The margin for smaller miners is getting tighter and tighter. And maybe after the next Halving more small miners will turn off the machines.
And for mining to become even more concentrated only in large miners, this means leaving the network completely under the control of these large miners.

I also don't think the solution is higher transaction fees, as this will cause a lack of motivation in using the network. But finding a balance point is not easy.

[philipma1957]

we need 95k by may 1 to be close to today. we need 120k to be equal to the very high jan 1 earnings which were 13 cents a th. we are hurting and coming to a cliff. by we miners. today i advise buying coin not mining it.

Well, I think this will be the increasing danger. The margin for smaller miners is getting tighter and tighter. And maybe after the next Halving more small miners will turn off the machines.
And for mining to become even more concentrated only in large miners, this means leaving the network completely under the control of these large miners.

I also don't think the solution is higher transaction fees, as this will cause a lack of motivation in using the network. But finding a balance point is not easy.

for years 6 cent power was always good for miners.

but this April Six cents will be not good enough for all s19's other than xp units.

Now maybe we just move to 75k which will bail out all s19s at 6 cent power.

[philipma1957]

we need 95k by may 1 to be close to today. we need 120k to be equal to the very high jan 1 earnings which were 13 cents a th. we are hurting and coming to a cliff. by we miners. today i advise buying coin not mining it.

Well, I think this will be the increasing danger. The margin for smaller miners is getting tighter and tighter. And maybe after the next Halving more small miners will turn off the machines.
And for mining to become even more concentrated only in large miners, this means leaving the network completely under the control of these large miners.

I also don't think the solution is higher transaction fees, as this will cause a lack of motivation in using the network. But finding a balance point is not easy.

for years 6 cent power was always good for miners.

but this April Six cents will be not good enough for all s19's other than xp units.

Now maybe we just move to 75k which will bail out all s19s at 6 cent power.

a bit of a retreat.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   830952  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.8199%  (361 / 380.72 expected, 19.72 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                            
Next Difficulty:   between 78207390922773 and 80543945372999
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.3046% and -1.4455%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 29, 2024 at 3:06 PM  (in 11d 14h 31m 54s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 1, 2024 at 3:28 AM  (in 12d 2h 54m 8s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 59m 7s and 14d 18h 21m 21s

Latest Block:   831158  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   93.0051%  (567 / 609.64 expected, 42.64 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                            
Next Difficulty:   between 76445451360519 and 79084906318874
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.4605% and -3.2308%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 29, 2024 at 9:19 PM  (in 10d 6h 36m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 1, 2024 at 10:23 AM  (in 10d 19h 39m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 12h 12m 56s and 15d 1h 16m 14s

Still a decent back off in difficultly.

[mikeywith]

The current pace is 94.7%, it is extremely unlikely that we had the  a 6.3% drop in hashrate given the price, so this makes me believe (even more) that the previous epoch was very lucky and that the 8.2% increase was more so 2-3% and the rest was luck.

[philipma1957]

The current pace is 94.7%, it is extremely unlikely that we had the  a 6.3% drop in hashrate given the price, so this makes me believe (even more) that the previous epoch was very lucky and that the 8.2% increase was more so 2-3% and the rest was luck.

A 106 rate of luck for 2016 blocks is very unlikely.

It is more likely that it was 108 and some miners cranked up hard while waiting to redeploy their new s21's

I now think they pulled a ton go s19's off line and are dumping them at very cheap prices.

I see listings for 1045 used s19j pros at — $1,279,000 for the lot —

that is about 

125ph

and 300 m30's for  880 each that is about  30ph

those are public sales at dumping prices.

[stompix]

I don't believe the on/off scenario.
So you have 150k S21 coming in and you plug them in alongside 300k S19 and then you unplug the S19 and throw them out, 450 k pieces of gear in two weeks, who will even do this kind of work, we're talking about 4500 tons of equipment, 100 fully loaded till their axels scream trucks.

Would rather blame some really unrealistic days in terms of block generation:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-confirmationtime.html#3m
we had a day with extra 42 blocks just one like that and you screw the difficulty completely.

Probably 4% was more accurate, and if the pace goes up just a bit but still negative it would mean a 4% followed by a 2%, still realistic.
300k gear moving in and out in 10 days, I can't even picture the logistic behind it.

[joker_josue]

I don't believe the on/off scenario.
So you have 150k S21 coming in and you plug them in alongside 300k S19 and then you unplug the S19 and throw them out, 450 k pieces of gear in two weeks, who will even do this kind of work, we're talking about 4500 tons of equipment, 100 fully loaded till their axels scream trucks.

Why not? If the miner is planning an equipment renovation, they may well do that.
Are you going to do this overnight? No, it will be a gradual process that will last a few days or weeks.

[philipma1957]

I don't believe the on/off scenario.
So you have 150k S21 coming in and you plug them in alongside 300k S19 and then you unplug the S19 and throw them out, 450 k pieces of gear in two weeks, who will even do this kind of work, we're talking about 4500 tons of equipment, 100 fully loaded till their axels scream trucks.

Would rather blame some really unrealistic days in terms of block generation:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-confirmationtime.html#3m
we had a day with extra 42 blocks just one like that and you screw the difficulty completely.

Probably 4% was more accurate, and if the pace goes up just a bit but still negative it would mean a 4% followed by a 2%, still realistic.
300k gear moving in and out in 10 days, I can't even picture the logistic behind it.

this truck can move 500 pieces

https://www.pensketruckrental.com/quote/#/reservation/truck-selection/truck-details/4

yellow truck
video icon
Watch to learn more about our 26 Foot Truck.
26 Foot Truck

3-5 BR Home (5-7 rooms)

Cargo Size: 25'11" L x 8'1" W x 8'1" H
Exterior Size: 35'5"L x 8'6"W x 12'6"H
Capacity: 1700 cu. ft., 10,000 lbs.
Fuel: Diesel, Up to 13 mpg
Tank: Up to 70 gal.
Seating: 3-person bench
Loading Ramp: 1,000 lb.
Tow Hitch: Yes
Transmission: Automatic
Air Conditioning: Yes


if the gear is on pallets it loads in 1 hour.

I am 67 and I just loaded and unloaded that truck with 9700 pounds of eth cables. we loaded it in an hour.

offloading was slower. 2 hours. Two guys. the other guy was 30 years old and did more work than me.

So yeah its work but 4 guys and two trucks could do four short trips in a day. that is 2000 pieces a day. or 10,000 pieces in a week.

We can argue good luck and bad luck which can be involved. But the larger the network the more level luck is.

 If 1  s19 was the entire network it can do 180 blocks in a day with luck
 If 1,000,000 s19 is the entire network they can do 180 blocks in a day with luck

In theory both are true , but you are neglecting a secondary factor the 1,000,000 separate pieces running independently have the ability to flatten the luck.

and the 1 piece has the ability to skew the luck easier.


Although I can bet you bottom dollar someone will say no to that idea.  The difference in difficulty cancels that factor.  It does in theory only if every machine is a perfectly equal machine running at perfectly equal conditions .

Then they would be like perfect casino dice. with zero balance.

The reality is a 1 machine network could have a great machine with great parts and it is a luckier machine.

It also could have a great connection to the blockchain.  So it could be biased to higher luck.


1,000,000 machines will flatten that a lot.  It will not show in the formulas but it is true.

[mikeywith]

I hear your points , both of you, both make sense and unfortunately probability is not math, you can't be too sure of what caused an event to happen when you have no control over it, it's likely a combination of both theories with different ratio, there has to be luck involved for that 8% figure to happen, I simply don't believe there was an addition of nearly 50EH in a single epoch, but I also know giving the halving is just around the corner -- many gear switching is probably taking place, gear prices are falling down rapidly especially the used once.

[stompix]

In theory both are true , but you are neglecting a secondary factor the 1,000,000 separate pieces running independently have the ability to flatten the luck.
and the 1 piece has the ability to skew the luck easier.

And they have the ability to also increase the luck to ridiculous levels, too, because that's how luck works.

Of course the 350k could be done you just have to employ more people, you just have to have a lot of MW available for god knows what reason, you have to have extra racks at hand, again why would, and spend a ton of $ to do that as fast as possible for, what really? A extra week of mining?

The reason why I don't believe in it being possible is because I see all those press release from Mara, Riot, Hut8 and if you look at the rate they put in new gear despite having it in order you will see they barely manage to bring each of them 1-2 exahash online constantly, to think that they would get their gear at the same time and decided all of them to play like this and keep the s19 running for exactly the same time, this to me sounds like a possibility just as high of getting 1 extra block for the 6 you mine usually without doing anything extra.

As mikey said above, a combination of luck, extra gear delivered, some farm testing a setup, a farm maybe going down for maintenance as we speak yes, but just one single factor, I find it hard to believe!

Pace has gone up a bit:

Latest Block:   831696  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.6864%  (1105 / 1154.81 expected, 49.81 behind)

Why not? If the miner is planning an equipment renovation, they may well do that.
Are you going to do this overnight? No, it will be a gradual process that will last a few days or weeks.

Yup, weeks is the thing, it just doesn't happen in two weeks, on/off.
Besides, the whole renovation thing, let's assume you have 10 000 gears , you plan on giving away 3000 and replacing them with 3000 new ones, why would that company had the space, racks, cables, transformers, cooling already in place  for 3000 extra gear? When you renovate something you don't have already things set up in place and working for extra 20 or 25% of capacity.

[philipma1957]

In theory both are true , but you are neglecting a secondary factor the 1,000,000 separate pieces running independently have the ability to flatten the luck.
and the 1 piece has the ability to skew the luck easier.

And they have the ability to also increase the luck to ridiculous levels, too, because that's how luck works.

Of course the 350k could be done you just have to employ more people, you just have to have a lot of MW available for god knows what reason, you have to have extra racks at hand, again why would, and spend a ton of $ to do that as fast as possible for, what really? A extra week of mining?

The reason why I don't believe in it being possible is because I see all those press release from Mara, Riot, Hut8 and if you look at the rate they put in new gear despite having it in order you will see they barely manage to bring each of them 1-2 exahash online constantly, to think that they would get their gear at the same time and decided all of them to play like this and keep the s19 running for exactly the same time, this to me sounds like a possibility just as high of getting 1 extra block for the 6 you mine usually without doing anything extra.

As mikey said above, a combination of luck, extra gear delivered, some farm testing a setup, a farm maybe going down for maintenance as we speak yes, but just one single factor, I find it hard to believe!

Pace has gone up a bit:

Latest Block:   831696  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.6864%  (1105 / 1154.81 expected, 49.81 behind)

Why not? If the miner is planning an equipment renovation, they may well do that.
Are you going to do this overnight? No, it will be a gradual process that will last a few days or weeks.

Yup, weeks is the thing, it just doesn't happen in two weeks, on/off.
Besides, the whole renovation thing, let's assume you have 10 000 gears , you plan on giving away 3000 and replacing them with 3000 new ones, why would that company had the space, racks, cables, transformers, cooling already in place  for 3000 extra gear? When you renovate something you don't have already things set up in place and working for extra 20 or 25% of capacity.

that is a fallacy.  the more you do an event the more likely it comes closer to 'normal' luck.



So 1,000,000 machines are more likely to be close to standard luck than 1 machine.



think coin tosses.

 1 flip = 1 machine and the result will be terrible luck or perfect luck

1,000,000 flips = 1,000,000 machines the result will not be 100% good luck or 100% bad luck.  it likely will be 490,000 heads 510,000 tails or some place near that.

When you do a luck calculation for the network now we are not one machine or 1 coin flip.

we are millions of machines or millions of coins flips.

 this far more likely means a 12 day adjustment due to magical luck or a 16 day adjustment due to badest luck around does not happen.

because that many 'flips' should show the bias if there is bias.


I doubt very much we are ever 5% above or below for a 2 week adjustment due to luck, we just never count in the  leveling effect that millions of units of gear has on luck.

[stompix]

that is a fallacy.  the more you do an event the more likely it comes closer to 'normal' luck.
So 1,000,000 machines are more likely to be close to standard luck than 1 machine.

I still think you're underestimating luck and probabilities:
11th of February till 12th 24 hours 177 blocks
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2024-02-11%2019:29:29..2024-02-12%2019:29:29)
next 24 hours: 141 blocks
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2024-02-12%2019:29:29..2024-02-13%2019:29:29)
If you have a 25% variable in 48 hours why is 8% instead of 4% so impossible in 13 days?

[mikeywith]

If you have a 25% variable in 48 hours why is 8% instead of 4% so impossible in 13 days?

Not sure what are you guys trying to reach to, but there is a 0.0048% chance you get 25% or more variance in 288 blocks vs a 0.0245% chance of getting 8% or more variance in 2016 blocks, so the latter is more likely to happen based on my simple code which uses pyton erlang.cdf function.

[philipma1957]

If you have a 25% variable in 48 hours why is 8% instead of 4% so impossible in 13 days?

Not sure what are you guys trying to reach to, but there is a 0.0048% chance you get 25% or more variance in 288 blocks vs a 0.0245% chance of getting 8% or more variance in 2016 blocks, so the latter is more likely to happen based on my simple code which uses pyton poisson.cdf function.

that formula is technically accurate.

but it can be flatter if you did the 2016 blocks with 1 or 2 million S19s or s21s in this case you need the difficulty of 84t

vs 1 s19 or s21. in this test you need a low difficulty to show the network is only 200th


I am saying the formula will work with either case .  but that the larger sample of gear flattens the luck more than the smaller sample.


the formula assumes perfectly equal hash . ie 1th anywhere is completely equal.

So if you have 1 machine for the whole network it is less likely the all th are true.

[mikeywith]

the formula assumes perfectly equal hash . ie 1th anywhere is completely equal.

Correct, it assumes no change in the actual factor that directly impacts the frequency of the events, which is why you just can't tell, looking at the previous epoch which had an 8.24% increase, assuming there was no change in the hashrate in either direction, the chance of that happening would be 0.016% which is pretty damn low, but if we were to assume half of that increase was actually caused by gears combining online and only the 4% was the result of luck, the chance of that happening increasing dramatically to 3.9%, if we assume it's 5% actually gears then that 3% is 9.3% chance.

The same would apply to the 288 blocks, if half of that assumed 25% is the result of gears combining online, and we talking only 12.5%, then that's a 2.27% chance, if we apply the same logic to 5% vs 3% and say roughly 17% was actual gears and 8% was luck than that's roughly 10% chance.

So ya, there isn't much you can takeaway from all of these guessing, except having a nice conversation with fine gentlemen like yourself and stompy.


edit: in the above, I used Poisson distribution function which is mainly "discrete probability distribution that models the number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space", I changed my code to use Erlang distribution which is " a continuous probability distribution that models the time between events in a Poisson process", while both have nearly similar results there is a slight difference, and I believe for the case in hand, using Erlang is more accurate.

Here is the code I wrote, which is pretty straight forward and would get 100% accurate result.

Code:

from scipy.stats import erlang

# Define the mean (expected events 2016 for a whole epoch, 144 for 1 day worth of blocks)
mean = 144
# Define the percentage change you want to evaluate 
percent = 5

# Calculate the threshold (don't change)
threshold = (1 + percent / 100)

# Calculate the CDF for Erlang distribution (don't change)
cdf = erlang.cdf(threshold * mean, mean, scale=1)

# Format the output to 2 dec points (don't change)
formatted_result = "{:.2f}%".format((1 - cdf) * 100)

print("Probability of having {}% or more additional events in {} blocks is: {}".format(percent, mean, formatted_result))

You can copy and paste this code to any online python compiler like this one https://www.onlinegdb.com/online_python_compiler if you want to run your own numbers, all you need to change would be the mean and the percent, the code I pasted above uses 5% or more blocks in a single day (144) blocks, if you want a whole epoch and 2% you would change the 144 to 2016 and the 5 to 2, let me know if you have any troubles running the code.

[stompix]

Not sure what are you guys trying to reach to,

We're discussing and speculating each giving some arguments and not getting convinced by the other's.
Not that the outcome would matter, but what are you going to do on a rainy Friday?
As you said in the other reply, chit chatting..

but there is a 0.0048% chance you get 25% or more variance in 288 blocks vs a 0.0245% chance of getting 8% or more variance in 2016 blocks,

and none of us as far as I understand claim that it's a fully 8% luck and more like half of it or one third or something around which would again increase the possibilities but, again not that it matters to the zeros.

I would be more interested in the actual technical challenges of having at least 50exhash in the datacenter and 50 out the next day, even assuming some larger farms managed to do this the same time.  I still believe that unless you're willing to spend extra for extra hands and shifts, and a lot here this won't be possible unless all the farms came to some agreement and all of Foundry and Bitmain and Antpool did it the same time. Why would they? That is another speculation!

[philipma1957]

Not sure what are you guys trying to reach to,

We're discussing and speculating each giving some arguments and not getting convinced by the other's.
Not that the outcome would matter, but what are you going to do on a rainy Friday?
As you said in the other reply, chit chatting..

but there is a 0.0048% chance you get 25% or more variance in 288 blocks vs a 0.0245% chance of getting 8% or more variance in 2016 blocks,

and none of us as far as I understand claim that it's a fully 8% luck and more like half of it or one third or something around which would again increase the possibilities but, again not that it matters to the zeros.

I would be more interested in the actual technical challenges of having at least 50exhash in the datacenter and 50 out the next day, even assuming some larger farms managed to do this the same time.  I still believe that unless you're willing to spend extra for extra hands and shifts, and a lot here this won't be possible unless all the farms came to some agreement and all of Foundry and Bitmain and Antpool did it the same time. Why would they? That is another speculation!

just went to a nice german restaurant and eat up 🆙 a storm.

and here I am back to the diff thread.

[mikeywith]

We're discussing and speculating each giving some arguments and not getting convinced by the other's.

I tried to figure out what the exact argument is about but I am not feeling too well, took me like 30 mins to write a 10 mins code, so is it true that you think this is all just luck while phill thinks the 50EH or so was actually present in the previous epoch and vanished today? would appreciate a TL;DR summary of what are you debating so that I don't take sides blindly, although, as usual, if it's a guessing game I rather be on the other side that you are debating given your track record of terrible speculation.

[philipma1957]

We're discussing and speculating each giving some arguments and not getting convinced by the other's.

I tried to figure out what the exact argument is about but I am not feeling too well, took me like 30 mins to write a 10 mins code, so is it true that you think this is all just luck while phill thinks the 50EH or so was actually present in the previous epoch and vanished today? would appreciate a TL;DR summary of what are you debating so that I don't take sides blindly, although, as usual, if it's a guessing game I rather be on the other side that you are debating given your track record of terrible speculation.

I think we are just bullshitting around waiting  for the next epoch.

I side more against variance for this drop and more for retooling.

With last jump being overclock the fuck out of the older s19 pros before you take them off line to sell.


He sides more with luck altering the numbers.

I think ?

[stompix]

I tried to figure out what the exact argument is about but I am not feeling too well,

Sorry to hear that, but you could take Phil's approach and have a dinner tin german restaurant , some greasy bratwurst mit sauerkraut would either make your write that in 2 seconds or quit doing anything for the weekend.
But seriously, if you're not feeling well take care, with all the shit in this world you don't know what a headache might be caused by.

so is it true that you think this is all just luck while phill thinks the 50EH or so was actually present in the previous epoch and vanished today? would appreciate a TL;DR summary of what are you debating so that I don't take sides blindly, although, as usual, if it's a guessing game I rather be on the other side that you are debating given your track record of terrible speculation.

I think that the previous 8% was a fluke by a few percentages, so it was more like 4% than 8% that time and while this one might end -1-2% in reality is actually positive.

Phils' version is :

It is more likely that it was 108 and some miners cranked up hard while waiting to redeploy their new s21's
I now think they pulled a ton go s19's off line and are dumping them at very cheap prices.

Nevermind he answered first.

And btw, even a broken clock is right twice a day.........although I'm digital...

I think we are just bullshitting around waiting  for the next epoch.

I'm saving all the popcorn for the halvening, these few adjustments are like the commercials before the movie, once that kicks in I'm going to watch the diff block by block, hutting all the press releases and hoping it will finally bring some sense in the market.

[mikeywith]

I side more against variance for this drop and more for retooling.

With last jump being overclock the fuck out of the older s19 pros before you take them off line to sell.


He sides more with luck altering the numbers.

Not that I don't want to take sides here, but I am guessing both theories are valid, and I would side with stompy a bit, not fully discarding the abuse-before-you-sell approach which is probably true for many farms (I have traded thousands of used gears and I know a thing or two about the subject), but I think it's more of a variance than the other option, maybe 70%-30% or 60%-40%, but noway it was all just overclocking before you they could sell.

My reasoning behind that is if there was room for 50EH to come online from a sustained overclocking it would have been the case long before, if you can safely abuse these gears for 2 weeks and have enough cooling not to kill them right away, why wait till now? also, usually, and from my own experience, most large sales are done in test and pick-up rather than ship away, someone who wants to buy 10M$ worth of gear would come to inspect the miners, see them run, then by them, those ready to ship are usually small in size.

So, is it possible that 5EH or so was the result of overclocking either for abuse or stress test for clients? yup it is, is a 50EH overclocking sustained for a whole epoch? probably not, so ya I'd guess it's likely a combination of both things with luck having the bigger impact.

I think we will find out soon tho, don't you think? that missing 50EH would come online soon, accompanied with the new gears replacing them, we should then see at least 15-20% increase in difficulty in a month or so time, which I don't think is going to happen, obviously, I could be wrong.

Sorry to hear that, but you could take Phil's approach and have a dinner tin german restaurant , some greasy bratwurst mit sauerkraut would either make your write that in 2 seconds or quit doing anything for the weekend.

Food makes me feel sleepy, especially if it has red meat in it, I sure won't be able to write shit lol, but ya I just had my dinner at 2 AM, going to be my last reply for the night.

But seriously, if you're not feeling well take care, with all the shit in this world you don't know what a headache might be caused by.

Luckily, I know what's causing this one, terrible weather and a lot of real-life work, too much thinking, and lack of sleep.

I'm saving all the popcorn for the halvening, these few adjustments are like the commercials before the movie, once that kicks in I'm going to watch the diff block by block, hutting all the press releases and hoping it will finally bring some sense in the market.

The halving is going to be frustrating to all miners that's for sure, I would hate to see it happen with a price below 60-70k at least, just imagine the price drops to 30-40k right before the halving, that's going to take a lot of popcorn dipped in a chocolate fudge to digest.

[joker_josue]

So, is it possible that 5EH or so was the result of overclocking either for abuse or stress test for clients? yup it is, is a 50EH overclocking sustained for a whole epoch? probably not, so ya I'd guess it's likely a combination of both things with luck having the bigger impact.

But, having a combination of luck during an entire cycle? Well, it really takes a lot of luck.
On the other hand, I also think it's unlikely that anyone will turn their business around selling machines based on difficulty cycles.

So it was probably a combination of these and other factors, which we will most likely never find out.

[mikeywith]

But, having a combination of luck during an entire cycle? Well, it really takes a lot of luck.

3% or more luck variance happens in 9% of epochs, that is a high probability, 4% variance happens in almost 4% of cycles which is still high.

Basically, nearly 1 in 10 epochs is subject to a 3% or more luck, nothing out of the ordinary here, run the code i posted above and you will understand how small of a sample is 2016 blocks with mean of 10 minutes.

[philipma1957]

It's always a mix of variance. down clocking , overclocking , upgrades. Power shortages. internet outages. bankrupt companies, natural disasters.  Lastly government interference.   To do a +8 and now a -5 is a very big swing.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   831838  (39 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.8541%  (1247 / 1314.65 expected, 67.65 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                            
Next Difficulty:   between 77725718433229 and 78283158240414
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.8939% and -4.2118%
Previous Retarget:   February 15, 2024 at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 12:41 AM  (in 5d 12h 28m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 3:20 AM  (in 5d 15h 7m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 15h 34m 33s and 14d 18h 13m 42s

I forgot to mention.

cents per th. we were at 13 cents a th in December we are now at 8 cents a th

some may shut down due to that.


back to luck if you want to argue let jump was 3% extra luck

and this jump is 3% less luck.

you get .09 x .09 = 0.0081 or 1 in 120 chance.

it is possible as the time period is 4 weeks x 120 = every 480 weeks which is 1 Time in 9+ years.


more likely variance was +2% and then -2%

Mike plug in 2%  and that is more like a 1 in 4 shot. then back to back 1 in 16 shot.  which is around 1 time every 64 weeks


you did do a 4% which is 1 in 25 cycles so back to back it is 1 in 625 cycles

So I lean to back to back 2% 1 of 16 shot. (mike can plug this in for exact number)

not back to back 3% variance 1 of 120 shot
not back to back 4% variance 1 of 625 shot


it is simply way more likely that variance was 2% up then 2% down

and cent per th dropped from 13 cents in dec to 8 cents now

and retooling s19 to s21

and some under clock


they are coming back strong !

Latest Block:   832042  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.6502%  (1451 / 1485.92 expected, 34.92 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                           
Next Difficulty:   between 79992421406053 and 80125865742021
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.1204% and -1.9571%
Previous Retarget:   February 15, 2024 at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 4:34 PM  (in 3d 23h 47m 51s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 5:12 PM  (in 4d 0h 25m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 27m 1s and 14d 8h 5m 7s

[mikeywith]

Mike plug in 2%  and that is more like a 1 in 4 shot. then back to back 1 in 16 shot.  which is around 1 time every 64 weeks

2% variance in a whole epoch has a chance of 18.42%, mind that given the K (the shape parameter) is constant the variance in either direction would yield the same result, although in my previous code the code would get the wrong result if you enter -2 instead of 2 in the percent parameter given this line

Code:

formatted_result = "{:.2f}%".format((1 - cdf) * 100)

removing the 1 - and changing the line to

Code:

formatted_result = "{:.2f}%".format(( cdf) * 100)

Would work fine for negative % but obviously not for positive, I could add a simple function to check the value and format the result accordingly, but I don't think it's needed.

So I lean to back to back 2% 1 of 16 shot. (mike can plug this in for exact number)

Using your logic 2% is 1 in 5.426, so two consecutive events would be 1 in 30.72, that is 3.25% in percentage terms.

But then, this is based on the assumption that in the second epoch (the current one for our case) is indeed affected by 2% or more variance, but if we assume that the previous epoch had a 2% luck, then his epoch would end up with -2% change while having 0% variance because the expect variance is 0%.

if we do indeed end up with a -4% which is 2% variance then that's 3.25%, however, we have no way of knowing what the heck is going on, 2016 blocks make a very small sample, if Satoshi made the difficult adjustment twice a year, we would have enough blocks to guess with.

With the size of 6 months' worth of blocks, the probability would be

1>% = 5.2%
2>% = 0.06%
3>% =0.00007% (almost never)

VS 2 weeks' worth of blocks

1>% = 32.4%
2>% = 18.4%
3>% = 9%

With the 2 weeks epochs, you can't be too sure that this epoch isn't having a 3% variance since 9% is relatively a huge figure, if we have diff adjustments only twice a year, then you could almost always assume that variance is never above 2%, in fact anything above 1.5% drops to below 0.7% so ya, assuming no epoch has a 1.5% variance would be a safe thing to do and you would really tell how much hashpower was added or left, but with two weeks worth of blocks even 5% variance has a good 1.3% chance of happening, so there is nothing you can do to safely eliminate a 5% variance, let alone 2% that happens nearly 20% of the time.

[joker_josue]

To me it seems that a reduction of -2% more normal, than 5 or 6, after such a big rise in the previous cycle.

But, the sample is still small (for the moment we are analyzing). We need to see how another cycle goes in order to draw better conclusions.

If in a third cycle we have a stagnation of variation, it is a sign that we have had a real increase in power of about 5%. But if the variation is higher, then the increase was greater. If it's lower, then it's weird that +8% spike.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   832204  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.3032%  (1613 / 1657.70 expected, 44.7 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                            
Next Difficulty:   between 79688817106318 and 79768246873574
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.4919% and -2.3947%
Previous Retarget:   February 15, 2024 at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 6:03 PM  (in 2d 20h 39m 21s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 6:25 PM  (in 2d 21h 1m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 8h 56m 24s and 14d 9h 18m 44s

I wonder if fees are going to rise along with this very solid price jump.  fees are steady and under 0.50 btc a block

[joker_josue]

I wonder if fees are going to rise along with this very solid price jump.  fees are steady and under 0.50 btc a block

Maybe not yet.
Fees are low because there are few transactions. In turn, the price goes up because there are few people wanting to sell.

So, unless folks start selling to make money at this stage, things should stay that way.
I believe that a lot of people are waiting for the next ATH.

[stompix]

I wonder if fees are going to rise along with this very solid price jump.  fees are steady and under 0.50 btc a block

Neah, I think we're going to see them even lower.
This is not a spike that everyone sees like a pump and dump and more as the first step of a breakthrough after the havening so everybody is keeping their coins tight, at most consolidate or move a bit between wallet exchange but no action as in purchasing stuff and ordinal minting is at it's lowest. Once we deal with the ton of consolidation transactions that are waiting we're going to drop to 3-4 sat/vb where inscribing useless kitties and monkeys becomes again cheaper to throw money at it.

Anyhow, I think we dodged a few bullets
- we're going to hit maybe 60k before the halvening, imagine being at 30k and suddenly the rewards goes in half
- ordinal madness is done, imagine a 30% hashrate drop after the halvening and blocks coming for 3 weeks at 100 a day with 2GB of mempool

So, it might be rather uneventful compared to what we might have had

Latest Block:   832237  (11 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   97.0829%  (1646 / 1695.46 expected, 49.46 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.7172% and -2.6281%

Two days left, we might get below (above?) -2%

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   832292  (13 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.8613%  (1701 / 1756.12 expected, 55.12 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                            
Next Difficulty:   between 79317504441176 and 79374597675111
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.9462% and -2.8763%
Previous Retarget:   February 15, 2024 at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 7:44 PM  (in 2d 5h 56m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 8:00 PM  (in 2d 6h 12m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 37m 19s and 14d 10h 53m 16s

Amazing we are just over -3.13%

and price is 57k up from 51.700

a decent turn of events.

but still not there yet for the miners.

we need to be at 13 cents a th now and we are at 9.07 cents a th

so that the drop to 6.5-7 cents a th after 1/2ing does not result is destruction of a lot of hash.

[mikeywith]

To me it seems that a reduction of -2% more normal, than 5 or 6, after such a big rise in the previous cycle.

I believe I did make this claim a while ago that anything above 3% increase in any epoch is not realistic, assuming the current hashrate is 560 then every 1% is going to take 5.6EH, but even a while ago when 1% was 5exahash we are talking about 5,000,000TH, if you assume it's all brand new latest gen 200th~ gears, then that's 25,000 gears, so 3 times that would give you 75,000.

Convert that to money and you get 75,000*$ 5000 = $375,000,000 (not counting tax, transport and all the other stuff)
Convert that to electricity and you get 75,000*MW0.0035   = 262MW

jump to 4% and you get 500M dollars and 350MW which is 100k gears.

I can't be convinced that there is any solid possibility that suggests the world is able to sustain such an increase in two weeks, 100k top-of-the-line mining gears is just not possible, there will always be a bottleneck somewhere, be it in the manufacturing of these gears, transporting them, the cost, the power, the time, the delivery, the paperwork, it just doesn't matter, I just don't think it's doable.

Now going back to the 8% 'fluke', we could to some degree assume that 3% was real, and 5% was variance, this means if we have a real 3% increase this epoch as well and 0% variance we should drop by 2%.

This epoch won't be variance free, we may have a 1% variance and end with -1% or -3%, but if we assume not much variance then anything around -2% is very realistic and suggests a massive increase of hashrate by nearly half a billion dollar worth.

[philipma1957]

To me it seems that a reduction of -2% more normal, than 5 or 6, after such a big rise in the previous cycle.

I believe I did make this claim a while ago that anything above 3% increase in any epoch is not realistic, assuming the current hashrate is 560 then every 1% is going to take 5.6EH, but even a while ago when 1% was 5exahash we are talking about 5,000,000TH, if you assume it's all brand new latest gen 200th~ gears, then that's 25,000 gears, so 3 times that would give you 75,000.

Convert that to money and you get 75,000*$ 5000 = $375,000,000 (not counting tax, transport and all the other stuff)
Convert that to electricity and you get 75,000*MW0.0035   = 262MW

jump to 4% and you get 500M dollars and 350MW which is 100k gears.

I can't be convinced that there is any solid possibility that suggests the world is able to sustain such an increase in two weeks, 100k top-of-the-line mining gears is just not possible, there will always be a bottleneck somewhere, be it in the manufacturing of these gears, transporting them, the cost, the power, the time, the delivery, the paperwork, it just doesn't matter, I just don't think it's doable.

Now going back to the 8% 'fluke', we could to some degree assume that 3% was real, and 5% was variance, this means if we have a real 3% increase this epoch as well and 0% variance we should drop by 2%.

This epoch won't be variance free, we may have a 1% variance and end with -1% or -3%, but if we assume not much variance then anything around -2% is very realistic and suggests a massive increase of hashrate by nearly half a billion dollar worth.

could be correct. but I do like that we are around -3%

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   832333  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.7386%  (1742 / 1800.73 expected, 58.73 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                            
Next Difficulty:   between 79213133358733 and 79258137846773
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.0739% and -3.0188%
Previous Retarget:   February 15, 2024 at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 8:14 PM  (in 1d 22h 59m 49s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 8:26 PM  (in 1d 23h 12m 22s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 7m 6s and 14d 11h 19m 40s

I still like to think it is under and overclocking since the is in hand and making an s19xp up and down 15% is easy peasy.

next jump will smoke after this one  + 5-9% with a simple over clocking of a really large set of farms.

and even with a 62.5K price - 2.85%

'quote
Latest Block:   832466  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.1442%  (1875 / 1930.12 expected, 55.12 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                            
Next Difficulty:   between 79534957362376 and 79545386002067
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.6801% and -2.6674%
Previous Retarget:   February 15, 2024 at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 6:56 PM  (in 1d 0h 8m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 6:59 PM  (in 1d 0h 11m 26s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 49m 44s and 14d 9h 52m 38s

quote'



Latest Block:   832571  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.9013%  (1980 / 2043.32 expected, 63.32 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                           
Next Difficulty:   between 79328143356016 and 79328885341071
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.9332% and -2.9323%
Previous Retarget:   February 15, 2024 at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 7:51 PM  (in 0d 6h 11m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 7:51 PM  (in 0d 6h 11m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 44m 27s and 14d 10h 44m 39s

[mikeywith]

could be correct. but I do like that we are around -3%

We sure are getting what you hoped for phill, it's 2011 blocks already so only 5 blocks to go (50 minutes give or take for difficulty adjustment) and the current pace is

Current Pace:   96.9336%  (2011 / 2074.62 expected, 63.62 behind)

So 3%~ is guaranteed at this stage, with the current BTC price of $61,447 this is going to be a good epoch for miners, not as great as when fees skyrocketed a while ago, but certainly better than the start of the current epoch.

[philipma1957]

could be correct. but I do like that we are around -3%

We sure are getting what you hoped for phill, it's 2011 blocks already so only 5 blocks to go (50 minutes give or take for difficulty adjustment) and the current pace is

Current Pace:   96.9336%  (2011 / 2074.62 expected, 63.62 behind)

So 3%~ is guaranteed at this stage, with the current BTC price of $61,447 this is going to be a good epoch for miners, not as great as when fees skyrocketed a while ago, but certainly better than the start of the current epoch.

mmmm

-3%

62k

fees on the rise.

viabtc was showing 10 cents a th.

but back in dec 2023 we touched 13 cents a th.

We need the hit the 1/2 ing closer to 14 cents a th vs 10 cents a th

we will soon know if miners are fully bull or bear.

[mikeywith]

Latest Block:   832879  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.1305%  (272 / 277.18 expected, 5.18 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                            
Current Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                            
Next Difficulty:   between 77885053453557 and 78977110199762
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.8477% and -0.4715%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 2:45 AM  (-2.9049%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 15, 2024 at 4:21 AM  (in 12d 3h 24m 49s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 15, 2024 at 9:09 AM  (in 12d 8h 12m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 36m 38s and 14d 6h 24m 4s

So we will continue to work the assumption that we are now even, we had a massive increase, followed by a 3% drop, I'll quote myself again

Now going back to the 8% 'fluke', we could to some degree assume that 3% was real, and 5% was variance, this means if we have a real 3% increase this epoch as well and 0% variance we should drop by 2%.

What is the expected outcome for this epoch without variance? 2-3% increase, it's now at -2% so we are 4% off but ya, it's just way too early to judge.

Another major factor that makes any prediction from now till a few months post halving very difficult, you just can't guess what those large U.S miners would do, you may think it's common sense that 2 months before the halving nobody in their right mind would be buying expensive gears that are going to have a 50% drop in profit, or let's say to their best scenario a 30% drop (assuming others will shutdown).

So idealistically, we should start seeing hashrate drop or stay the same till the halving, then after that, a slow decline, but on the other hand, these large players could be swapping their S19s or whatever gears to S21 or M60s, which will still take the difficulty to a higher level, and I believe the latter scenario is more likely, I think these large players are playing the "game of chicken" (Google that term if you are not familiar with it or check the image below if you are lazy)



image source: https://www.toledoblade.com/opinion/editorial-cartoons/2018/06/20/Maumee-Dearest-A-game-of-chicken/stories/20180619146

[stompix]

I think these large players are playing the "game of chicken" (Google that term if you are not familiar with it or check the image below if you are lazy)

The only difference in the image is that they both drive nearly the same car, in reality it would look in some instances like a 40t truck plowing through skateboarders. And adding more details, one has his private ambulance ready nearby (investors with deep enough pockets and with a mind that reads let's throw now another 5 million, we might not get back the 10 millions spent before but there is a chance we might turn this 5 into 6).
As for intimidation, Riot has played its cards, they have stated they have the money and the deals to bring 100Exa online by 2025, I wonder how that would have played with Bitcoins still in the 30k range and no relief in sight, probably a lot would have indeed blinked.

Latest Block:   832949  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.2542%  (342 / 337.76 expected, 4.24 ahead)

Turned positive two days into it, based on the last week pace we could realistically see a 1 or maybe 2% , but right now it takes only one lazy block and it could go negative again. Nothing extraordinary to see I guess, I'm waiting for the fireworks in two months.

[philipma1957]

Yeah they grind away at guys like me. we have a good power deal but only a 320kwatt transformer.

SO by the end of the year we will struggle unless we get a new transformer.

[mikeywith]

The only difference in the image is that they both drive nearly the same car

Those small players you talking about are sitting on the sideline, they can't play the chicken game, I am talking about those large players who are equally strong, I am under the assumption that at least 80% of the total hashrate is controlled by a few large firms, we the average joes are just nothing, those large players are the ones playing the game of chicken, they all know that the market post halving as is won't be able to facilitate all of them the same way it does today.

If Rioat expands it would be at the expense of Mara, Core or Bitfarms, and the same thing applies to all of them, crushing the small players isn't going to solve the issue for all of them, it's like 50 hungry people sharing the same cake and 3 cats are eating the little pieces that drop on the ground (the small miners are the cats), half the cake is going to disappear, there is no way all of them will be able to eat the same amount unless some of them leave the table or start eating less, it's going to be a cold war between all of these large players and we the cats will just keep watching till some of them leave the table so we can go back to collecting the little topping the drops on the floor.

[philipma1957]

The only difference in the image is that they both drive nearly the same car

Those small players you talking about are sitting on the sideline, they can't play the chicken game, I am talking about those large players who are equally strong, I am under the assumption that at least 80% of the total hashrate is controlled by a few large firms, we the average joes are just nothing, those large players are the ones playing the game of chicken, they all know that the market post halving as is won't be able to facilitate all of them the same way it does today.

If Rioat expands it would be at the expense of Mara, Core or Bitfarms, and the same thing applies to all of them, crushing the small players isn't going to solve the issue for all of them, it's like 50 hungry people sharing the same cake and 3 cats are eating the little pieces that drop on the ground (the small miners are the cats), half the cake is going to disappear, there is no way all of them will be able to eat the same amount unless some of them leave the table or start eating less, it's going to be a cold war between all of these large players and we the cats will just keep watching till some of them leave the table so we can go back to collecting the little topping the drops on the floor.

yeah has to be 75% or more are in the hands of under a dozen companies .

as nice as 67k seems we are still not as good as it was in December. we were 13 cents a th which was enough price to handle the 1/2 ing we are at 11.26 cents a th not good enough for the 1/2 ing

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   833131  (34 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.2624%  (524 / 533.27 expected, 9.27 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                           
Current Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 77981416100365 and 78725772358851
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.7263% and -0.7882%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 7:45 PM  (-2.9049%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 14, 2024 at 11:26 PM  (in 10d 9h 48m 34s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 15, 2024 at 2:41 AM  (in 10d 13h 3m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 41m 14s and 14d 5h 56m 30s

[mikeywith]

as nice as 67k seems we are still not as good as it was in December. we were 13 cents a th which was enough price to handle the 1/2 ing we are at 11.26 cents a th not good enough for the 1/2 ing

It's 68k now, but ya, honestly, nothing is going to be good enough to make post halving even close to 13 cents/th profit, the best we could hope for is for the price to keep climbing up slowly and hopefully a 20-30 difficulty drop 1-2 months after the halving, 11 cents would be like a dream after the halving, I will be more than happy with 10 cents post halving but well prepared for 5-6 cents /th.

As for the current difficulty status, it seems like we are still lagging.

Latest Block:   833174  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.4164%  (567 / 576.12 expected, 9.12 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                           
Current Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 78102970026279 and 78742878325747
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.5731% and -0.7667%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 2:45 AM  (-2.9049%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 15, 2024 at 5:21 AM  (in 10d 2h 35m 34s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 15, 2024 at 8:09 AM  (in 10d 5h 23m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 36m 48s and 14d 5h 24m 23s

Goes against my expectations but I am happier about being wrong than right.

[philipma1957]

as nice as 67k seems we are still not as good as it was in December. we were 13 cents a th which was enough price to handle the 1/2 ing we are at 11.26 cents a th not good enough for the 1/2 ing

It's 68k now, but ya, honestly, nothing is going to be good enough to make post halving even close to 13 cents/th profit, the best we could hope for is for the price to keep climbing up slowly and hopefully a 20-30 difficulty drop 1-2 months after the halving, 11 cents would be like a dream after the halving, I will be more than happy with 10 cents post halving but well prepared for 5-6 cents /th.

As for the current difficulty status, it seems like we are still lagging.

Latest Block:   833174  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.4164%  (567 / 576.12 expected, 9.12 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                            
Current Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                            
Next Difficulty:   between 78102970026279 and 78742878325747
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.5731% and -0.7667%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 2:45 AM  (-2.9049%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 15, 2024 at 5:21 AM  (in 10d 2h 35m 34s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 15, 2024 at 8:09 AM  (in 10d 5h 23m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 36m 48s and 14d 5h 24m 23s

Goes against my expectations but I am happier about being wrong than right.

when btc was 68k in 2021 diff was tiny.

21t vs 79t

S17 pro was 33 watts on low s19 xp 19 watts

so miners were over 40cents a th near the april peak in 2021.

to be there price needs to be insane  after the 1/2 ing maybe over 400k

I do not see that rally happening in the next forty days.

[joker_josue]

when btc was 68k in 2021 diff was tiny.

21t vs 79t

S17 pro was 33 watts on low s19 xp 19 watts

so miners were over 40cents a th near the april peak in 2021.

to be there price needs to be insane  after the 1/2 ing maybe over 400k

I do not see that rally happening in the next forty days.

But for a miner of your size, isn't mining productive?
Are you actually making less profit or are you making more or less the same profit?

[philipma1957]

when btc was 68k in 2021 diff was tiny.

21t vs 79t

S17 pro was 33 watts on low s19 xp 19 watts

so miners were over 40cents a th near the april peak in 2021.

to be there price needs to be insane  after the 1/2 ing maybe over 400k

I do not see that rally happening in the next forty days.

But for a miner of your size, isn't mining productive?
Are you actually making less profit or are you making more or less the same profit?

We were splitting 30k profit  a month almost all of 2021.

Our best month since sept 2022 was 19k in dec 2023.

Now Ltc and doge has picked up a lot
and kawpow has picked up a lot

and btc is meh
it is less than dec 2023.

We are on track to do 20k four way split.

quite frankly it has been a lot of work way way too much for the profits I made.

I am not getting younger (67) and I am getting tired mining.

If i just posted and took signature money since 2012 holding only 10percent of those coins I would be wealthy which I am not.

[joker_josue]

Thanks for sharing. I understand that it starts to be complicated for average miners, whereas for small ones it is almost impossible.

If i just posted and took signature money since 2012 holding only 10percent of those coins I would be wealthy which I am not.

I understand that feeling. I sometimes think about that, and about some things I could have done and didn't do. I don't regret it, I made the decisions that I thought were appropriate at the time. He could have really done things differently, and today he might not even be rich, but life had taken a different path, without a doubt.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   833580  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.0546%  (973 / 944.16 expected, 28.84 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                           
Current Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 81115776225096 and 81780445523506
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.2237% and +3.0613%
Previous Retarget:   February 29, 2024 at 7:45 PM  (-2.9049%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 14, 2024 at 10:47 AM  (in 7d 0h 40m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 14, 2024 at 1:27 PM  (in 7d 3h 20m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 14h 2m 26s and 13d 16h 42m 23s

looking like a bull trap for miners coming up soon.

we are at 11 cents a th ½ ing drops it to 5.5 cents a th which puts a lot of miners in the red.

s19xp would be 140 x 5.5 cents  = $7.70 earned

and 80 kwatts at 6 cents = $4.80 burned

thus 7.70- 4.80 = $2.90 profit.

but a s19 at 100 th

would be

5.50 earned an 4.80 burned = 70 cents profit


So basically you need to be at the s19 xp level with under 6 cent power. at current price.

[joker_josue]

So basically you need to be at the s19 xp level with under 6 cent power. at current price.

Is this moment of rise in the price of bitcoin an opportunity for miners to invest in their own energy production, such as solar or wind energy?
Perhaps this could help reduce energy costs, and in turn make mining farms more profitable.

[mikeywith]

Is this moment of rise in the price of bitcoin an opportunity for miners to invest in their own energy production, such as solar or wind energy?
Perhaps this could help reduce energy costs, and in turn make mining farms more profitable.

Energy production is a complex subject. It's neither cheap nor easy. The only reason why electric companies can offer "cheap" rates is because they produce energy in bulk. Setting aside all taxes and other unrelated costs, you need to produce a significant amount of energy just to break even. It doesn't matter how you produce the energy—whether from the sun or wind—you can only generate a limited amount at a given time. For the majority of the day, you will need to rely on power from the grid.

Storing electricity is more expensive than producing it. Battery technology is lagging, so you can't simply produce 240 kWh and use it throughout the entire 24-hour period. If you require 240 kWh per day, you must assume it's only viable for 4-5 hours, meaning you'll need to sell it to the company and then repurchase it.

If the company sells you 1 kWh for 10 cents and buys yours for 5 cents, then you'll need to do some calculations.

For example, if you require 100 kWh every hour during the 4 hours when your solar/wind system is producing energy, you need to generate 40 kWh for your use and 400 kWh to sell to the grid. At 5 cents per kWh, you have a daily credit of 400 * 0.05 = $20.

Then, when your solar panels or wind turbines aren't producing anything for the remaining 20 hours, you'll need to purchase 200 kWh at 10 cents, costing you $20. In other words, you break even; you don't owe the company anything.

However, this means you must invest in a system capable of producing 5 times your actual needs. That's a significant amount of money to invest. Of course, there could be other incentives for running solar, such as tax benefits. If your country/state encourages on-grid solar, they may buy from you at 4 cents and sell to you at 5 cents during the night (not sure if anybody does that, just speculating). It all depends on your location. But in general, building your own energy infrastructure is complicated and expensive.

[philipma1957]

So basically you need to be at the s19 xp level with under 6 cent power. at current price.

Is this moment of rise in the price of bitcoin an opportunity for miners to invest in their own energy production, such as solar or wind energy?
Perhaps this could help reduce energy costs, and in turn make mining farms more profitable.

as mikeywith says making your own energy can be costly.

in the USA some states suck and some states are good.

I am in NJ pretty good for solar. Pennsylvania is very good.

You could do a 2 megawatt solar build  (max size for discounts) on the cheap, but the cheap is a lot if lucky 2 million mostly financed with many incentives. what does that generate per hour around 400kwatts

what is that in miners about 120 s19k pro units which is around two hundred k all in a 50k box

so 250k in miner setup.  and you need a site for the solar. in PA maybe 750k

so 3million to run 120 x 120 = 14400 th at five cent after ½ ing that is 720 a day or  250k income for 3 million in loans that is around 8% return plus your incentives. So it is just good enough in a very good state like pennsylvania or new jersey.

[stompix]

I am in NJ pretty good for solar. Pennsylvania is very good.

Solar is not a solution for everyone you get 1498.5 kWh/m2 per Trenton (picked one random city in NJ) Wien gets 1112.5 kWh/m2 and Berlin 976.4 kWh/m2 .
But just a few miles east of El Paso 2865.1 kWh/m2 !

However, this means you must invest in a system capable of producing 5 times your actual needs. That's a significant amount of money to invest. Of course, there could be other incentives for running solar, such as tax benefits.

So basically the state subsidizing energy that would be to expensive to be viable., you can't call that a solution when you're actually burning money in my opinion!

But one thing about that:

Storing electricity is more expensive than producing it. Battery technology is lagging, so you can't simply produce 240 kWh and use it throughout the entire 24-hour period. If you require 240 kWh per day, you must assume it's only viable for 4-5 hours, meaning you'll need to sell it to the company and then repurchase it.

Batteries for even personal use are too costly , and trying to deploy batteries at large scale is just stupid, there are countries where no amount of batteries will help, we have a term here dunkelflaute, it happens usually for 1 to 3 days, sometimes even worse for almost five days when there is not enough sun and no wind blowing do due atmospheric conditions, so what are you going to do, build 3 times the farm's worth of  battery storage?

Anyhow, seems like it's again up in the middle of the period:

Current Pace:   104.6998%  (1132 / 1081.19 expected, 50.81 ahead)

So it might erase the drop and gain 1%, 11cents per th, after halving 5.5, this is early 2023 levels so...who's taking a bet of no drop in hashpower below this level after the halving?

[philipma1957]

solar is good and helpful it is not a full solution.

and it sucks in many places.

 
Ireland too cloudy
Seattle Washington USA too cloudy

Many spots it sucks.  As I illustrated it is okay in at least two USA states buy not every one.

As for subsidies many of what I call a subsidy is just fair treatment.

ie a straight 1 for 1 swap for your excess power is fairly fair.

Some states do that.

Yet some states are fuck you and just allow the power company to take all excess for no cost to them.

Solar and wind and waterfalls will not fix all power needs.

A working fusion reactor would solve energy issues for 1000's of years if we ever see one as many companies would be against it.

[joker_josue]

Well, the miner can always enter another market niche: energy sales.

I see the point! I was thinking about smaller miners. It is true that they needed a smaller investment, but their profitability is also lower. That would make it still complicated.

Either way, I continue to believe that the solution is for miner manufacturers to improve their efficiency. Honestly, I think there has been little progress in this regard in the last 4/5 years.

[philipma1957]

really heating up

newhedge.io

Latest Block:   834246  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.1595%  (1639 / 1543.90 expected, 95.1 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                           
Current Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 84061075695735 and 84242269902101
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.9354% and +6.1638%
Previous Retarget:   February 29, 2024 at 7:45 PM  (-2.9049%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 1:15 AM  (in 2d 11h 11m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 1:56 AM  (in 2d 11h 52m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 4h 30m 17s and 13d 5h 11m 11s

fees are going up a little.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Either way, I continue to believe that the solution is for miner manufacturers to improve their efficiency. Honestly, I think there has been little progress in this regard in the last 4/5 years.

Bullshit.

Only a few years ago eff was 30-40w/T, now is less than 20w/T That is hardly 'little' progress. Miner efficiency is fixed by the chip node size used and that is already at the bleeding edge.

[alh]

Have we now hit a new "All Time High" on BTC price (roughly $72.5K)?

That seems like it will spur mining effort, at least until the halving.

[philipma1957]

Have we now hit a new "All Time High" on BTC price (roughly $72.5K)?

That seems like it will spur mining effort, at least until the halving.

fomo is not here for mining.

we are at 12 cents a th we were at 13 cents a th due to high fees back in December.

The month of December was better for mining btc then it is right now. as we had 3 coins of fees per block
we now have only 0.30 coins of fees each block

and the hammer is coming in under 40 days. (1/2 ing)

Meanwhile the diff is jumping over 6%. I smell a bull trap

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   834282  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   106.3422%  (1675 / 1575.10 expected, 99.9 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                           
Current Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 84234208206445 and 84387155575890
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.1536% and +6.3464%
Previous Retarget:   February 29, 2024 at 7:45 PM  (-2.9049%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 12:42 AM  (in 2d 5h 26m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 1:17 AM  (in 2d 6h 1m 1s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 57m 39s and 13d 4h 32m 3s

[mikeywith]

Only a few years ago eff was 30-40w/T, now is less that 20w/T That is hardly 'little' progress.

Well actually going as far back as 4-5 years then it's 2019 era, the most efficient publicly available mining gear at the time was Antminer S17 which did 56th for 2500w, this puts it 44.6W/th, fast-forward to today, we got Antminer S21 which does 200th for 3500W, which is 17.5th, that's a little over 60% improvement in efficiency which is HUGE, one would also assume that mining gears manufacturers have already acquired more experience and skills to make the overall production cost lower.

We may not get another 60% improvement in the coming 4 to 5 years, at least not on a single-chip level, but if they can make them cheap enough, they can always stack more chips and run them at lower speeds to achieve better efficiency.

[philipma1957]

Only a few years ago eff was 30-40w/T, now is less that 20w/T That is hardly 'little' progress.

Well actually going as far back as 4-5 years then it's 2019 era, the most efficient publicly available mining gear at the time was Antminer S17 which did 56th for 2500w, this puts it 44.6W/th, fast-forward to today, we got Antminer S21 which does 200th for 3500W, which is 17.5th, that's a little over 60% improvement in efficiency which is HUGE, one would also assume that mining gears manufacturers have already acquired more experience and skills to make the overall production cost lower.

We may not get another 60% improvement in the coming 4 to 5 years, at least not on a single-chip level, but if they can make them cheap enough, they can always stack more chips and run them at lower speeds to achieve better efficiency.

I under clocked s17pro to 42th and pulled as little as 1300 watts that was 31 watts.

So far no one has shown me an s21 at 3500 watts I have seen a

200 th s21 doing 3575 watts = 17.875 watts a th

so we went from 31 to 17.875 that is a 42.5% improvement

 2019 to 2024 five years time we are better.

BTW Fuzzy is correct that more efficiency does not help miners much.

[alh]

OK, I have seen a reference to a "bull trap". Can someone explain what that really means and how it works?

[philipma1957]

OK, I have seen a reference to a "bull trap". Can someone explain what that really means and how it works?

Btc is ath high = bull 🐂

½ ing in 38 days = trap 🪤

If you purchased  a miner right now because it is bull and btc goes flat or retreats you will likely lose

mining. you got trapped.

if you buy a miner now and we moon 🌕 you will not be bull trapped.

so buying gear to mine today has the added risk of a bull trap.

and lets say you buy one and we drift to 75k and do flat we as a buyer at any price under that you are okay.

but a miner could be in a lot of trouble if we stay under 80k for a long time.

[mikeywith]

I under clocked s17pro to 42th and pulled as little as 1300 watts that was 31 watts.

So far no one has shown me an s21 at 3500 watts I have seen a

200 th s21 doing 3575 watts = 17.875 watts a th

so we went from 31 to 17.875 that is a 42.5% improvement

Ya, I used stock settings as a reference, it would take a while for mods to work well on the Antminer S21 to figure out how low can the w/t go, it could be 15w or anything in that range unless they are already underclocked by Bitmain which doesn't make sense, but my guess is -- it would be a similar drop that S17 had percentage-wise.

As for the bull trap scenario -- it's possible, BTC likes to do things differently every cycle, this is the first cycle where we hit a new ATH before the halving, the majority of people were waiting for the halving to happen and then bull, many other people including myself thought that this time would be different in a negative way, i.e, it would not moon in the same halving year but rather middle or late next year, but what do we know? BTC does what BTC wants to do.

[philipma1957]

I under clocked s17pro to 42th and pulled as little as 1300 watts that was 31 watts.

So far no one has shown me an s21 at 3500 watts I have seen a

200 th s21 doing 3575 watts = 17.875 watts a th

so we went from 31 to 17.875 that is a 42.5% improvement

Ya, I used stock settings as a reference, it would take a while for mods to work well on the Antminer S21 to figure out how low can the w/t go, it could be 15w or anything in that range unless they are already underclocked by Bitmain which doesn't make sense, but my guess is -- it would be a similar drop that S17 had percentage-wise.

As for the bull trap scenario -- it's possible, BTC likes to do things differently every cycle, this is the first cycle where we hit a new ATH before the halving, the majority of people were waiting for the halving to happen and then bull, many other people including myself thought that this time would be different in a negative way, i.e, it would not moon in the same halving year but rather middle or late next year, but what do we know? BTC does what BTC wants to do.

Yeah buying the s21 or t21 could be dumb as fuck or smarter than Einstein.

Maybe we just climb up past 80k 90k 100k 110k 200k  300k and a th makes 50cents so your 200th unit is earning $100 a day by the summer of 2024.

That would be wild as fuck.

[joker_josue]

Either way, I continue to believe that the solution is for miner manufacturers to improve their efficiency. Honestly, I think there has been little progress in this regard in the last 4/5 years.

Bullshit.

Only a few years ago eff was 30-40w/T, now is less than 20w/T That is hardly 'little' progress. Miner efficiency is fixed by the chip node size used and that is already at the bleeding edge.

Only a few years ago eff was 30-40w/T, now is less that 20w/T That is hardly 'little' progress.

Well actually going as far back as 4-5 years then it's 2019 era, the most efficient publicly available mining gear at the time was Antminer S17 which did 56th for 2500w, this puts it 44.6W/th, fast-forward to today, we got Antminer S21 which does 200th for 3500W, which is 17.5th, that's a little over 60% improvement in efficiency which is HUGE, one would also assume that mining gears manufacturers have already acquired more experience and skills to make the overall production cost lower.

We may not get another 60% improvement in the coming 4 to 5 years, at least not on a single-chip level, but if they can make them cheap enough, they can always stack more chips and run them at lower speeds to achieve better efficiency.

I under clocked s17pro to 42th and pulled as little as 1300 watts that was 31 watts.

So far no one has shown me an s21 at 3500 watts I have seen a

200 th s21 doing 3575 watts = 17.875 watts a th

so we went from 31 to 17.875 that is a 42.5% improvement

 2019 to 2024 five years time we are better.

BTW Fuzzy is correct that more efficiency does not help miners much.

A miner (hardware) is more efficient, it is not limited to the chip having more capacity or using less energy.
Efficiency also comes from the chip's ability to better manage energy. To be able to reduce its temperature more effectively, or not to heat up as much.

Honestly, when I say that there seem to be no improvements, it's because I don't see an investment in the development of new chips. But perhaps manufacturers don't earn that much to allow them to carry out this laboratory study.


For example, what is the difference between the BM1385 chip and the BM1398 chip?

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   834522  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   105.6477%  (1915 / 1812.63 expected, 102.37 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                            
Current Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                            
Next Difficulty:   between 83823690920543 and 83835580721147
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.6363% and +5.6513%
Previous Retarget:   February 29, 2024 at 7:45 PM  (-2.9049%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 2:47 AM  (in 0d 15h 56m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 2:49 AM  (in 0d 15h 58m 42s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 6h 2m 17s and 13d 6h 4m 59s

a huge 5.6% move.

or was last variance wrong. and is this variance wrong.

-3 last time should be -1

that make this 5.6 like 3.6 and tack on over variance of 1 or 2.

so we really added 1 or 2% to the network.

Could be.  As of today at 72k. which will hurt miners in 30 days. the ½ ing is about 34 days.


edit
almost there close to +6%

Latest Block:   834613  (30 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.8688%  (2006 / 1894.80 expected, 111.2 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                            
Current Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                            
Next Difficulty:   between 84010814561589 and 84010935944954
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.8721% and +5.8723%
Previous Retarget:   February 29, 2024 at 7:45 PM  (-2.9049%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 2:07 AM  (in 0d 1h 34m 27s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 2:07 AM  (in 0d 1h 34m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 5h 22m 26s and 13d 5h 22m 27s

[mikeywith]

a huge 5.6% move.

or was last variance wrong. and is this variance wrong.

-3 last time should be -1

that make this 5.6 like 3.6 and tack on over variance of 1 or 2.

so we really added 1 or 2% to the network.

Guessing difficulty has been only getting harder, it's even worse nowadays since we are approaching the halving, you just can't tell what people have in mind, but a 5% is a whole lot of gears and power, I still find it hard to believe that it was not a fluke which would correct itself this epoch.

Mind you, even post halving we would still see unrealistic changes like we did the last halving, it would take a few epochs for things to settle down.

The one thing certain is that anybody paying above 5-6 cents and doesn't have S19 or better, is going to face some serious issues.

[joker_josue]

a huge 5.6% move.

or was last variance wrong. and is this variance wrong.

-3 last time should be -1

that make this 5.6 like 3.6 and tack on over variance of 1 or 2.

so we really added 1 or 2% to the network.

Could be.  As of today at 72k. which will hurt miners in 30 days. the ½ ing is about 34 days.

I wonder how it is that every 14 days there are such significant movements (5% I think is a lot)!?
I don't see people turning machines on and off every week, to the point of influencing the hash by 5% (up or down).
If this correction occurred every two months, for example, I would understand. Now, this movement is almost weekly.

Is there any logical explanation?

[stompix]

BTC does what BTC wants to do.

I do wonder if those times will not also be over soon, for sure the market is not mature enough, not at all as we look as today's drop and the swings in the last weeks but  in the long run seems to me like it will turn into the same thing as gold, and days of wild trading back in forth 10% would be a thing of the past

I wonder how it is that every 14 days there are such significant movements (5% I think is a lot)!?
I don't see people turning machines on and off every week, to the point of influencing the hash by 5% (up or down).

Mikey did the probabilities a few pages back, things do happen otherwise you would have days with 144,143,143,142,141 blocks and so on as people are adding more gear and block finding is the perfect reflection of added hashrate!
Just like this current stats:

Latest Block:   834806  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   93.9928%  (183 / 194.70 expected, 11.7 behind)

doesn't mean that suddenly ~500k S19 are offline!

We had a - 3.90 % then a + 7.33 % , now a - 2.90 % and a + 5.79 %.
Once you break them in months average and not two weeks periods it stops being that amazing.

[philipma1957]

BTC does what BTC wants to do.

I do wonder if those times will not also be over soon, for sure the market is not mature enough, not at all as we look as today's drop and the swings in the last weeks but  in the long run seems to me like it will turn into the same thing as gold, and days of wild trading back in forth 10% would be a thing of the past

I wonder how it is that every 14 days there are such significant movements (5% I think is a lot)!?
I don't see people turning machines on and off every week, to the point of influencing the hash by 5% (up or down).

Mikey did the probabilities a few pages back, things do happen otherwise you would have days with 144,143,143,142,141 blocks and so on as people are adding more gear and block finding is the perfect reflection of added hashrate!
Just like this current stats:

Latest Block:   834806  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   93.9928%  (183 / 194.70 expected, 11.7 behind)

doesn't mean that suddenly ~500k S19 are offline!

We had a - 3.90 % then a + 7.33 % , now a - 2.90 % and a + 5.79 %.
Once you break them in months average and not two weeks periods it stops being that amazing.

So 100 x .961 = 96.1 x 1.0733. = 103.144 x  .971= 100.153 x 1.0579=105.951

so for the last eight weeks we gained 5.951%

price went up over 20% over last eight weeks.

So we can say there is a floating 6-10% that shifts along with real hash being adding.

[mikeywith]

Phill, there are new gears coming online everyday that's for sure, but the numbers are just massive when you translate them to money and electcity.

We are at roughly 600EH, simple math for those new commers, 1EH = 1,000,000TH.

When we get 1% change in either direction we are talking about 6EH, ,6 million tera hash, Antminet S19 or Whatminer M30 do roughly 100th so you need 60,000 miner to make a 1% change, to make a 5% change you need 60,000*5 or 300k miners.

Using S21 or Whatsminer M60, you can divide the number by 2, so ya for a 5% change it is 150k gears.

Power wise = 150,000* 3.6KW = 540MW, that is the average output of a gas power plant, 10 of them are enough to run a whole country with a small population.

You just can't do this every other epoch, it is too much.

[philipma1957]

Phill, there are new gears coming online everyday that's for sure, but the numbers are just massive when you translate them to money and electcity.

We are at roughly 600EH, simple math for those new commers, 1EH = 1,000,000TH.

When we get 1% change in either direction we are talking about 6EH, ,6 million tera hash, Antminet S19 or Whatminer M30 do roughly 100th so you need 60,000 miner to make a 1% change, to make a 5% change you need 60,000*5 or 300k miners.

Using S21 or Whatsminer M60, you can divide the number by 2, so ya for a 5% change it is 150k gears.

Power wise = 150,000* 3.6KW = 540MW, that is the average output of a gas power plant, 10 of them are enough to run a whole country with a small population.

You just can't do this every other epoch, it is too much.

it must be in no particular order

A) variance
B) adding gear to replace gear. ie s21 for s19
C) the network can down clock and or up clock at will depending on power price /heat/ capacity.
D) some gaming attempts to influence the crowding of the mempool

As for real growth if you look at last 4 jumps we grew 5% if accurate. could we do 30eh in 8 weeks maybe.

[joker_josue]

Is there any information about the total number of ASIC miners that have been produced to date?
And if with these numbers, it is possible to perceive the total hash power that has been manufactured to date?

[mikeywith]

Is there any information about the total number of ASIC miners that have been produced to date?
And if with these numbers, it is possible to perceive the total hash power that has been manufactured to date?

Nop, some of the large orders are public but you can't tell much just by looking at what a few companies bought, there are three major Asic miner manufacturers, Bitmain, MicroBT and Canaan (in order), none of them reveal the info you looking for.

Furthermore, even if we had all that info at hand, you just can't reach a definite conclusion, the real question is, how much power there is and how much it costs everybody to run certain gears.

For all we know, for a country that has a lot of spare electricity can still mine with older gears, we have no clue how many of the old S9, S17, or M20/M20s still run, all we can do is speculate and use common sense although many things in mining don't make much sense anyway.

[stompix]

There is a solution, all you have to do is convince those companies to go public, depending on their listing they will be forced to present their financial data, and have someone leak the details (as most will not be completely public for a lot of reasons, including not aiding the competition) and you might get a number for the last 5 years.
Nothing too complicated, right? 

so for the last eight weeks we gained 5.951%
price went up over 20% over last eight weeks.

hmm, isn't eight weeks in January, so more like over 60%?
Or is 20% per period..
I don't get this!

Anyhow if we want to look deeper into this as if we have nothing else to do, maybe a thing like % increase in income per th/s from last November at 5cents pwe kwh would be an indicator of what we can expect, but, the halving is next month, price is all over the place, and bitdeer has just released ...something..
https://ir.bitdeer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bitdeer-announces-new-4nm-bitcoin-mining-chip-seal01

So, popcorn with extra fudge times incoming

Latest Block:   834806  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   93.9928%  (183 / 194.70 expected, 11.7 behind)

Latest Block:   834935  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   91.8445%  (312 / 339.70 expected, 27.7 behind)

Only 129 blocks in the last 24 hours, if we go by downclocking this would be the mother of all downclocking in the universe, if not variance maybe more like one huge mining farm shutting down for refitting or maintenance or power failure or ..something!
I can't see anything that might help in the pool distribution, so open theory field:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-pools

[mikeywith]

There is a solution, all you have to do is convince those companies to go public,

Funny that you quoted Bitdeer News because that is a publicly listed Bitmain branch, you know who is the CEO? Probably even the founder? Jihan Wu, rings a bill?

As for thier new chip its most likely just BM1368 rebranded.

Current pace is 95%, i say we get a small 1% increase or so.

[stompix]

There is a solution, all you have to do is convince those companies to go public,

Funny that you quoted Bitdeer News because that is a publicly listed Bitmain branch, you know who is the CEO? Probably even the founder? Jihan Wu, rings a bill?
As for thier new chip its most likely just BM1368 rebranded.

More like a full Santa's sled full of them, I had my share of popcorn when Wu and Zhan where fighting over at Bitmain.
But even now I have no clue who was right and wrong and if that wasn't just for show and under all that it's business as normal.

The reason I mentioned bitdeer is the chip, they claim it's a 4nm chip, isn't the s21 using 5nm chips?

[Kingperry22]

a huge 5.6% move.

or was last variance wrong. and is this variance wrong.

-3 last time should be -1

that make this 5.6 like 3.6 and tack on over variance of 1 or 2.

so we really added 1 or 2% to the network.

Guessing difficulty has been only getting harder, it's even worse nowadays since we are approaching the halving, you just can't tell what people have in mind, but a 5% is a whole lot of gears and power, I still find it hard to believe that it was not a fluke which would correct itself this epoch.

Mind you, even post halving we would still see unrealistic changes like we did the last halving, it would take a few epochs for things to settle down.

The one thing certain is that anybody paying above 5-6 cents and doesn't have S19 or better, is going to face some serious issues.

You are right the mining difficulties for btc has been on the rise, and with the upcoming halving it is expected to become more challenging. The halving might reduce mining reward making it less profitable especially for those withous less gears.

A 5% increase in difficulty is significant ans it is not only about that but the cost of electricity. However, after the post-halving i geel the market will likely go either ways but the market will be volatile.

Electricity cost has increased nationwide and the cost of efficient mining is the key if not there will be difficulty in attaining the presumed high of the year targetted at 100k

[philipma1957]

Well after the 2021 double top Say nov/dec 2021 to now the diff never really corrected for price.


see the chart below


We just grew like mad. so your profits now suck compared to nov 21 .  yeah you are making money but you are about to get crushed come the ½ ing

Even a move to 100k this week and you then do the ½ ing in 4 weeks you are still far behind Nov 2021

[joker_josue]

Well after the 2021 double top Say nov/dec 2021 to now the diff never really corrected for price.

This is an indication that the hardware is not able to keep up with the market.
We need another leap at a technological level, in relation to mining, to return to more attractive profitability.

I think the last time I really saw this leap was in 2013/2014, when they left GPUs and moved to ASICs.

[philipma1957]

Well after the 2021 double top Say nov/dec 2021 to now the diff never really corrected for price.

This is an indication that the hardware is not able to keep up with the market.
We need another leap at a technological level, in relation to mining, to return to more attractive profitability.

I think the last time I really saw this leap was in 2013/2014, when they left GPUs and moved to ASICs.

no I wish you were correct.  The issue is simple all the gear was added because

6 cent mining made money with s17 s19  s21
and  m20 m30 m50 made money at six cents

all from march 2021 to now.  so big farms kept adding gear and making more power available.

At the current price of 66-67 k  and six cent mining on April 20 or so almost everything will suck for miners.  We may finally see some gear be shut off with some dropping difficulty.

[joker_josue]

At the current price of 66-67 k  and six cent mining on April 20 or so almost everything will suck for miners.  We may finally see some gear be shut off with some dropping difficulty.

But with the increase in the value of BTC, doesn't it create the possibility of increasing the number of connected machines?
For small miners, it could be an opportunity to have more hash, given that the value of BTC is higher.

Well, when you think about it, as the difficulty increases, you end up gaining so little that it still doesn't pay off.
Anyway, we are at a stage where the market is starting to regulate itself, leaving only those with real hashing capacity. And unfortunately this ends up centralizing mining even more.

[philipma1957]

At the current price of 66-67 k  and six cent mining on April 20 or so almost everything will suck for miners.  We may finally see some gear be shut off with some dropping difficulty.

But with the increase in the value of BTC, doesn't it create the possibility of increasing the number of connected machines?
For small miners, it could be an opportunity to have more hash, given that the value of BTC is higher.

Well, when you think about it, as the difficulty increases, you end up gaining so little that it still doesn't pay off.
Anyway, we are at a stage where the market is starting to regulate itself, leaving only those with real hashing capacity. And unfortunately this ends up centralizing mining even more.

Read the history of mining for gold.

Mining alone in the right spot in 1840 you could become super rich.

Not so much now.  ie the easy to find is gone the hard to find needs lots of money to mine it at a profit.

The mine in Clifton NJ has had over 1,600,000 put into it. and over 4000 a month in power for 60 months.

Total in 1.84 million. Total out more than that, but not a lot more.

We started DEC 2018 coins were 6k buying coins has done better than mining ⛏️.

[joker_josue]

We started DEC 2018 coins were 6k buying coins has done better than mining ⛏️.

So what do you think the future of mining will be?
Do you really think everything will be centralized in two or three big players?

[philipma1957]

We started DEC 2018 coins were 6k buying coins has done better than mining ⛏️.

So what do you think the future of mining will be?
Do you really think everything will be centralized in two or three big players?

85% will go to big players maybe 90%.

We will never go to three mines or 10 mines.

I could build you a 1 board s19xp miner that will use 120-240 volts.
 500 to 900 watts.

At your power cost  and no need for heat it is not very good for you even though it is a 24 watts a th machine.  But a lot of people will use it.

Say I build 10000 and sell them all. at 30 th a machine 10,000 is 300000 th or

300ph .

That is .05% of the network. Even if they are really efficient .05 percent scattered in 10,000 homes is not much.


https://pool.laurentiapool.org/#/miners.

I have a  s19xp one board pointed . I will always point a machine there.

That won’t die people will do this but it reduce the percent of small mining to under 10%.

No push for 1 board high quality miners seems to be around.

If you look at bitcointalk mining most push is for tiny ‘fun’ miners with next to zero shot of profit.

these one board s19xp miners will likely lose money but they could make money with a bigger price move.

at my 14 cent power right now they make a little money as I can use the heat.

[Chibit01]

We started DEC 2018 coins were 6k buying coins has done better than mining ⛏️.

So what do you think the future of mining will be?
Do you really think everything will be centralized in two or three big players?

85% will go to big players maybe 90%.

We will never go to three mines or 10 mines.

I could build you a 1 board s19xp miner that will use 120-240 volts.
 500 to 900 watts.

At your power cost  and no need for heat it is not very good for you even though it is a 24 watts a th machine.  But a lot of people will use it.

Say I build 10000 and sell them all. at 30 th a machine 10,000 is 300000 th or

300ph .

That is .05% of the network. Even if they are really efficient .05 percent scattered in 10,000 homes is not much.


https://pool.laurentiapool.org/#/miners.

I have a  s19xp one board pointed . I will always point a machine there.

That won’t die people will do this but it reduce the percent of small mining to under 10%.

No push for 1 board high quality miners seems to be around.

If you look at bitcointalk mining most push is for tiny ‘fun’ miners with next to zero shot of profit.

these one board s19xp miners will likely lose money but they could make money with a bigger price move.

at my 14 cent power right now they make a little money as I can use the heat.

The future of mining lies in the use of renewable energy. Since the construction of green energy on a global scale is quite expensive, it is necessary to eliminate the emergence of excessive power capacity. To do this, it is necessary to find energy consumers with oversupplies. This is where power-intensive mining comes to the rescue. Thanks to the very flexible ability to turn mining systems on and off, they can act as buyers of excess power. With mining, it will not only be possible to use electricity rationally but also to make a faster profit from renewable sources, and such examples already exist.

One of the promising areas of the mining industry will be cloud mining, which, despite its shortcomings, has good prospects for the future. The first perspective is the increasing number of users attracted to cryptocurrency mining using cloud mining. Due to the growing interest in cryptocurrencies, more and more people want to start earning from them. Cloud mining provides the opportunity to make digital money without purchasing and setting up specialized equipment. The second prospect is an improvement in mining technology. Cloud mining companies are constantly working to improve technology to increase the efficiency and profitableness of crypto mining. This can be achieved by using new mining algorithms and improving mining hardware and software.
Source
https://b2binpay.com/en/the-future-of-cryptocurrency-mining/

[joker_josue]

~~

I wouldn't mind having equipment like that. Just to say that I am part of the network and that I can contribute something to it.
Of course it would be difficult to make a profit, but as long as you don't lose a lot of money, you would be happy.

The future of mining lies in the use of renewable energy. Since the construction of green energy on a global scale is quite expensive, it is necessary to eliminate the emergence of excessive power capacity. To do this, it is necessary to find energy consumers with oversupplies. This is where power-intensive mining comes to the rescue. Thanks to the very flexible ability to turn mining systems on and off, they can act as buyers of excess power. With mining, it will not only be possible to use electricity rationally but also to make a faster profit from renewable sources, and such examples already exist.

It could be, but the cost of installing solar energy, to work 24 hours a day, is not yet viable.

[stompix]

It could be, but the cost of installing solar energy, to work 24 hours a day, is not yet viable.

It is according to these guys:
https://b2binpay.com/en/the-future-of-cryptocurrency-mining/
word by word

One of the promising areas of the mining industry will be cloud mining, which, despite its shortcomings, has good prospects for the future. The first perspective is the increasing number of users attracted to cryptocurrency mining using cloud mining. Due to the growing interest in cryptocurrencies, more and more people want to start earning from them. Cloud mining provides the opportunity to make digital money without purchasing and setting up specialized equipment. The second prospect is an improvement in mining technology. Cloud mining companies are constantly working to improve technology to increase the efficiency and profitableness of crypto mining. This can be achieved by using new mining algorithms and improving mining hardware and software.

But besides the obvious plagiarism, that whole thing is a bunch of nonsense, cloud mining, new mining algorithms, chatgpt article.
Just ignore it.


Price dropping like a stone, diff recovering:

Latest Block:   835423  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.7853%  (800 / 809.84 expected, 9.84 behind)

Those 9 blocks can be ignored as that could change in 2 hours, we just had a 30 mins difference between two blocks as I type this.
So maybe something positive, and probably again next time once more a bigger adjustment, I expect a lot of gear that was ready to ship at the start of the year is still fiding it's way to the owner's warehouses.

And then, in April we have popcorn!! I'm like a small kid right now waiting for its birthday surprise!

[philipma1957]

It could be, but the cost of installing solar energy, to work 24 hours a day, is not yet viable.

It is according to these guys:
https://b2binpay.com/en/the-future-of-cryptocurrency-mining/
word by word

One of the promising areas of the mining industry will be cloud mining, which, despite its shortcomings, has good prospects for the future. The first perspective is the increasing number of users attracted to cryptocurrency mining using cloud mining. Due to the growing interest in cryptocurrencies, more and more people want to start earning from them. Cloud mining provides the opportunity to make digital money without purchasing and setting up specialized equipment. The second prospect is an improvement in mining technology. Cloud mining companies are constantly working to improve technology to increase the efficiency and profitableness of crypto mining. This can be achieved by using new mining algorithms and improving mining hardware and software.

But besides the obvious plagiarism, that whole thing is a bunch of nonsense, cloud mining, new mining algorithms, chatgpt article.
Just ignore it.


Rice dropping like a stone, diff recovering:

Latest Block:   835423  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.7853%  (800 / 809.84 expected, 9.84 behind)

Those 9 blocks can be ignored as that could change in 2 hours, we just had a 30 mins difference between two blocks as I type this.
So maybe something positive, and probably again next time once more a bigger adjustment, I expect a lot of gear that was ready to ship at the start of the year is still fiding it's way to the owner's warehouses.

And then, in April we have popcorn!! I'm like a small kid right now waiting for its birthday surprise!

. day later and we got close to 68k

67.7k

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   835576  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.4667%  (953 / 958.11 expected, 5.11 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                            
Current Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                            
Next Difficulty:   between 83556055301548 and 83664634359804
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4668% and -0.3374%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:21 AM  (+5.7928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 28, 2024 at 3:39 AM  (in 7d 9h 36m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 28, 2024 at 4:09 AM  (in 7d 10h 6m 59s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 18m 2s and 14d 1h 48m 5s

Small change over nite

Latest Block:   835709  (21 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.8556%  (1086 / 1109.80 expected, 23.8 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                            
Current Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                            
Next Difficulty:   between 82195123985207 and 82561970734818
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.0879% and -1.6510%
Previous Retarget:   March 14, 2024 at 2:21 AM  (+5.7928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 28, 2024 at 8:09 AM  (in 6d 12h 49m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 28, 2024 at 9:43 AM  (in 6d 14h 23m 48s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 47m 46s and 14d 7h 21m 47s

kind of level  negative 2-3%

Latest Block:   835938  (17 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.3853%  (1315 / 1350.31 expected, 35.31 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                            
Current Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                            
Next Difficulty:   between 81791718145309 and 82046514525474
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.5685% and -2.2650%
Previous Retarget:   March 14, 2024 at 2:21 AM  (+5.7928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 10:17 AM  (in 4d 22h 52m 45s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 11:23 AM  (in 4d 23h 58m 12s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 55m 49s and 14d 9h 1m 16s

Latest Block:   836184  (31 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.1346%  (1561 / 1558.90 expected, 2.1 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                           
Current Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                           
Next Difficulty:   between 84087900527153 and 84095427119596
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1668% and +0.1757%
Previous Retarget:   March 14, 2024 at 2:21 AM  (+5.7928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 1:54 AM  (in 3d 3h 43m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 1:56 AM  (in 3d 3h 45m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 32m 54s and 13d 23h 34m 16s

very close to zero 3-4 days left.

Latest Block:   836322  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.4665%  (1699 / 1708.11 expected, 9.11 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                           
Current Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                           
Next Difficulty:   between 83531322466071 and 83541572842114
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4962% and -0.4840%
Previous Retarget:   March 14, 2024 at 2:21 AM  (+5.7928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 4:07 AM  (in 2d 5h 4m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 4:09 AM  (in 2d 5h 7m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 45m 27s and 14d 1h 48m 8s

diff went negative. and coins over 70k

looking okay

[joker_josue]

Latest Block:   836322  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.4665%  (1699 / 1708.11 expected, 9.11 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                            
Current Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                            
Next Difficulty:   between 83531322466071 and 83541572842114
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4962% and -0.4840%
Previous Retarget:   March 14, 2024 at 2:21 AM  (+5.7928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 4:07 AM  (in 2d 5h 4m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 4:09 AM  (in 2d 5h 7m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 45m 27s and 14d 1h 48m 8s

diff went negative. and coins over 70k

looking okay

Without a doubt, it is something positive.
But, if we analyze it carefully, and if these numbers remain the same, it indicates that the difficulty will change little since the last update. ~0.5% is very little.

Or is this difference, even if small, for a miner like you, already significant?

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   836322  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.4665%  (1699 / 1708.11 expected, 9.11 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                            
Current Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                            
Next Difficulty:   between 83531322466071 and 83541572842114
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4962% and -0.4840%
Previous Retarget:   March 14, 2024 at 2:21 AM  (+5.7928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 4:07 AM  (in 2d 5h 4m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 4:09 AM  (in 2d 5h 7m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 45m 27s and 14d 1h 48m 8s

diff went negative. and coins over 70k

looking okay

Without a doubt, it is something positive.
But, if we analyze it carefully, and if these numbers remain the same, it indicates that the difficulty will change little since the last update. ~0.5% is very little.

Or is this difference, even if small, for a miner like you, already significant?

In twenty to thirty days. the ½ ing hits. I turn into a grumpy bear.

with most of the farm ending already,  the rest may end at the ½ ing.

now at the moment 70k is great. but for me to continue i need to be at 95k.

[philipma1957]

It could be, but the cost of installing solar energy, to work 24 hours a day, is not yet viable.

It is according to these guys:
https://b2binpay.com/en/the-future-of-cryptocurrency-mining/
word by word

One of the promising areas of the mining industry will be cloud mining, which, despite its shortcomings, has good prospects for the future. The first perspective is the increasing number of users attracted to cryptocurrency mining using cloud mining. Due to the growing interest in cryptocurrencies, more and more people want to start earning from them. Cloud mining provides the opportunity to make digital money without purchasing and setting up specialized equipment. The second prospect is an improvement in mining technology. Cloud mining companies are constantly working to improve technology to increase the efficiency and profitableness of crypto mining. This can be achieved by using new mining algorithms and improving mining hardware and software.

But besides the obvious plagiarism, that whole thing is a bunch of nonsense, cloud mining, new mining algorithms, chatgpt article.
Just ignore it.


Rice dropping like a stone, diff recovering:

Latest Block:   835423  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.7853%  (800 / 809.84 expected, 9.84 behind)

Those 9 blocks can be ignored as that could change in 2 hours, we just had a 30 mins difference between two blocks as I type this.
So maybe something positive, and probably again next time once more a bigger adjustment, I expect a lot of gear that was ready to ship at the start of the year is still fiding it's way to the owner's warehouses.

And then, in April we have popcorn!! I'm like a small kid right now waiting for its birthday surprise!

. day later and we got close to 68k

67.7k

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   835576  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.4667%  (953 / 958.11 expected, 5.11 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                            
Current Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                            
Next Difficulty:   between 83556055301548 and 83664634359804
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4668% and -0.3374%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:21 AM  (+5.7928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 28, 2024 at 3:39 AM  (in 7d 9h 36m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 28, 2024 at 4:09 AM  (in 7d 10h 6m 59s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 18m 2s and 14d 1h 48m 5s

Small change over nite

Latest Block:   835709  (21 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.8556%  (1086 / 1109.80 expected, 23.8 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                            
Current Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                            
Next Difficulty:   between 82195123985207 and 82561970734818
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.0879% and -1.6510%
Previous Retarget:   March 14, 2024 at 2:21 AM  (+5.7928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 28, 2024 at 8:09 AM  (in 6d 12h 49m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 28, 2024 at 9:43 AM  (in 6d 14h 23m 48s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 47m 46s and 14d 7h 21m 47s

kind of level  negative 2-3%

Latest Block:   835938  (17 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.3853%  (1315 / 1350.31 expected, 35.31 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                            
Current Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                            
Next Difficulty:   between 81791718145309 and 82046514525474
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.5685% and -2.2650%
Previous Retarget:   March 14, 2024 at 2:21 AM  (+5.7928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 10:17 AM  (in 4d 22h 52m 45s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 11:23 AM  (in 4d 23h 58m 12s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 55m 49s and 14d 9h 1m 16s

Latest Block:   836184  (31 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.1346%  (1561 / 1558.90 expected, 2.1 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                           
Current Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                           
Next Difficulty:   between 84087900527153 and 84095427119596
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1668% and +0.1757%
Previous Retarget:   March 14, 2024 at 2:21 AM  (+5.7928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 1:54 AM  (in 3d 3h 43m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 1:56 AM  (in 3d 3h 45m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 32m 54s and 13d 23h 34m 16s

very close to zero 3-4 days left.

Latest Block:   836322  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.4665%  (1699 / 1708.11 expected, 9.11 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   79351228131136.77                           
Current Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                           
Next Difficulty:   between 83531322466071 and 83541572842114
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4962% and -0.4840%
Previous Retarget:   March 14, 2024 at 2:21 AM  (+5.7928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 4:07 AM  (in 2d 5h 4m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 4:09 AM  (in 2d 5h 7m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 45m 27s and 14d 1h 48m 8s

diff went negative. and coins over 70k

looking okay

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   836659  (20 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.2382%  (20 / 20.57 expected, 0.57 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                           
Current Difficulty:   83126997340024.61                           
Next Difficulty:   between 82325503678049 and 83111022585759
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.9642% and -0.0192%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 5:47 AM  (-0.9779%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 11, 2024 at 5:58 AM  (in 13d 20h 45m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 11, 2024 at 3:19 PM  (in 14d 6h 6m 54s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 11m 18s and 14d 9h 32m 35s

so around -1% a few hours ago

and we are over 70k price

[joker_josue]

so around -1% a few hours ago

and we are over 70k price

Not a bad fit. Would you now prefer that the difficulty continues to decrease, or more or less remains at this level?

I say this because if the difficulty starts to drop significantly, at the same time that the price of BTC rises, it will lead to many miners turning on old machines again. This can mess up your accounts.

[philipma1957]

so around -1% a few hours ago

and we are over 70k price

Not a bad fit. Would you now prefer that the difficulty continues to decrease, or more or less remains at this level?

I say this because if the difficulty starts to drop significantly, at the same time that the price of BTC rises, it will lead to many miners turning on old machines again. This can mess up your accounts.

Well the main farm was greatly reduced. we only have 1700 th when the ½ ing comes it would be just in the red with current diff and current price.

Now its great it earns 187usd  power cost is 88.5 so the profit is $88.50 usd a day

With current diff and current price we are fine

but in a month it will earn maybe 90 and cost 88.50 profit is $1.50 a day

So I may full shut down in April or go on for a month at break even hoping for prices to alter.

I had 180-190kwatts of gear running in Clifton NJ and Managed 70kwatts at that location
I now have  70kwatts of gear running in Clifton and no managed gear.

Can't predict what to do at the moment. Since price and diff need to greatly improve by May or June to keep this running .

[mikeywith]

Latest Block:
837044  (22 minutes ago)
Current Pace:
104.3965%  (405 / 387.94 expected, 17.06 ahead)

Still too early to judge at 405 blocks, but keeping this here for future reference.

the current estimation for the halving is 18 days, that would be on the 18th of April, 10 pm UTC,  I think it would happen a little sooner, at least a day sooner so 17th of April around 10 PM is my guess.

The current epoch is most likely going to end on the 10th of April, so the halving will hit in the middle of that epoch, half way into retarget, the epoch will drag on for a little too long, but whatever change it brings won't be accurate enough to judge how much hashpower has left, we will need to wait till the following retarget which I assume would start on the 20th of April and end 20 days later at around 10th of May, that would be when most miners get the right answer to their business.

[stompix]

The current epoch is most likely going to end on the 10th of April, so the halving will hit in the middle of that epoch, half way into retarget, the epoch will drag on for a little too long, but whatever change it brings won't be accurate enough to judge how much hashpower has left, we will need to wait till the following retarget which I assume would start on the 20th of April and end 20 days later at around 10th of May, that would be when most miners get the right answer to their business.

I'm starting to think not much will leave, not anything really out of the ordinary will happen exactly then, and as per my usual predictions and my clean record of nailing it, I don't see more than 10%, 10 percent not in the whole two weeks adjustment 10% down in a month time since the halving.
Most big miners are on long contracts, and for them, it will be a loss to stop mining, just like planes on the ground lose more money, also a lot that might be barely profitable or even at a small loss will till wait a few months to see what happens, we still have incoming orders of gear! And then we have stuff like the s21pro!

Viabtc shows 11 cents per th/s , miners survived and expanded even at 6 cents/th, inserting the efficiency increase into this with newer gear and we might even go up by some 100 exa second quarter, even if the price doesn't move up again.
But a retrace to below $50k, and we're going to see some fireworks.

Well the main farm was greatly reduced. we only have 1700 th when the ½ ing comes it would be just in the red with current diff and current price.
Now its great it earns 187usd  power cost is 88.5 so the profit is $88.50 usd a day
With current diff and current price we are fine
but in a month it will earn maybe 90 and cost 88.50 profit is $1.50 a day

Am I doing the math wrong or are you at 6 cents kwh?


 

[philipma1957]

The current epoch is most likely going to end on the 10th of April, so the halving will hit in the middle of that epoch, half way into retarget, the epoch will drag on for a little too long, but whatever change it brings won't be accurate enough to judge how much hashpower has left, we will need to wait till the following retarget which I assume would start on the 20th of April and end 20 days later at around 10th of May, that would be when most miners get the right answer to their business.

I'm starting to think not much will leave, not anything really out of the ordinary will happen exactly then, and as per my usual predictions and my clean record of nailing it, I don't see more than 10%, 10 percent not in the whole two weeks adjustment 10% down in a month time since the halving.
Most big miners are on long contracts, and for them, it will be a loss to stop mining, just like planes on the ground lose more money, also a lot that might be barely profitable or even at a small loss will till wait a few months to see what happens, we still have incoming orders of gear! And then we have stuff like the s21pro!

Viabtc shows 11 cents per th/s , miners survived and expanded even at 6 cents/th, inserting the efficiency increase into this with newer gear and we might even go up by some 100 exa second quarter, even if the price doesn't move up again.
But a retrace to below $50k, and we're going to see some fireworks.

Well the main farm was greatly reduced. we only have 1700 th when the ½ ing comes it would be just in the red with current diff and current price.
Now its great it earns 187usd  power cost is 88.5 so the profit is $88.50 usd a day
With current diff and current price we are fine
but in a month it will earn maybe 90 and cost 88.50 profit is $1.50 a day

Am I doing the math wrong or are you at 6 cents kwh?

yeah one deal ended . this deal is six cents we have around 60-70kwatts. comes to about 2500 usd power monthly. which is fine when you are mining 5000 monthly. not so fine when you are mining 2600 monthly.


also I fucked up and ordered three t21s which are three phase so I need to figure out a host for them.

[mikeywith]

I'm starting to think not much will leave, not anything really out of the ordinary will happen exactly then, and as per my usual predictions and my clean record of nailing it, I don't see more than 10%, 10 percent not in the whole two weeks adjustment 10% down in a month time since the halving.
Most big miners are on long contracts

There is no room for everyone post halving, think about it this way, if there was, everyone would have doubled their hashrate by now, simple logic, assume 625 miners and 6.25 BTC reward per block, if you say 625 miners will be happy with 6.25/2 rewards, it means 625*2 miners would be happy with 6.25, which we know isn't the case.

There won't be a 50% drop in hashrate that's for sure, but only 10% is not doable in my honest opinion, you need to keep in mind that there are many small folks involved, it isn't just those large U.S corps mining BTC, not to say that those are 100% safe either, so ya, BTC below 50k or not, I would say, prepare yourself for some firework.

[OgNasty]

I'm starting to think not much will leave, not anything really out of the ordinary will happen exactly then, and as per my usual predictions and my clean record of nailing it, I don't see more than 10%, 10 percent not in the whole two weeks adjustment 10% down in a month time since the halving.
Most big miners are on long contracts

There is no room for everyone post halving, think about it this way, if there was, everyone would have doubled their hashrate by now, simple logic, assume 625 miners and 6.25 BTC reward per block, if you say 625 miners will be happy with 6.25/2 rewards, it means 625*2 miners would be happy with 6.25, which we know isn't the case.

There won't be a 50% drop in hashrate that's for sure, but only 10% is not doable in my honest opinion, you need to keep in mind that there are many small folks involved, it isn't just those large U.S corps mining BTC, not to say that those are 100% safe either, so ya, BTC below 50k or not, I would say, prepare yourself for some firework.

I was wondering about this and it will be one of the things to pay attention to in order to learn a little something. I’m on the side of thinking we won’t see a large drop in hashrate just because people are reactive and may even have electricity deals they can’t immediately break as mentioned above. No doubt will growth slow for a while as older gear is replaced, but I think a 10% drop might be about the worst of it. I’d bet it doesn’t do more than 20%.

[philipma1957]

I'm starting to think not much will leave, not anything really out of the ordinary will happen exactly then, and as per my usual predictions and my clean record of nailing it, I don't see more than 10%, 10 percent not in the whole two weeks adjustment 10% down in a month time since the halving.
Most big miners are on long contracts

There is no room for everyone post halving, think about it this way, if there was, everyone would have doubled their hashrate by now, simple logic, assume 625 miners and 6.25 BTC reward per block, if you say 625 miners will be happy with 6.25/2 rewards, it means 625*2 miners would be happy with 6.25, which we know isn't the case.

There won't be a 50% drop in hashrate that's for sure, but only 10% is not doable in my honest opinion, you need to keep in mind that there are many small folks involved, it isn't just those large U.S corps mining BTC, not to say that those are 100% safe either, so ya, BTC below 50k or not, I would say, prepare yourself for some firework.

I was wondering about this and it will be one of the things to pay attention to in order to learn a little something. I’m on the side of thinking we won’t see a large drop in hashrate just because people are reactive and may even have electricity deals they can’t immediately break as mentioned above. No doubt will growth slow for a while as older gear is replaced, but I think a 10% drop might be about the worst of it. I’d bet it doesn’t do more than 20%.

10-20% seems correct if we are in the 60-70k price range

we are at 10.28 cents a th.

lets pretend the network is 28 watts its higher but lets say 28 watts a th.


a 100 th machine now makes 10.28 a day pre power
at 1/2 ing it makes 5.24 a day


lets say with fans for cooling you use 72 kwatts per machine

10 cent = 7.20
  9 cent = 6.48
  8 cent = 5.76
  7 cent = 5.04
  6 cent = 4.32  a 72 cent profit.

so all s19's are knocked out except the pros and xp's at 7 cent number

the pros drop out at the 8 cent number

the xps drop out at the 10 cent number

So basically all 10 cent miners are done.

[joker_josue]

~~

So, do you think that after the halving, if the value of BTC drops below 50k, we will see a sharp drop in difficulty? With many miners turning off their machines.

[philipma1957]

~~

So, do you think that after the halving, if the value of BTC drops below 50k, we will see a sharp drop in difficulty? With many miners turning off their machines.

if we hit the ½ ing and drop to 50k it will be crushing to miners

[joker_josue]

~~

So, do you think that after the halving, if the value of BTC drops below 50k, we will see a sharp drop in difficulty? With many miners turning off their machines.

if we hit the ½ ing and drop to 50k it will be crushing to miners

Sorry, but now I don't understand what you mean by "½ ing". Can you clarify?
Thanks.

[philipma1957]

~~

So, do you think that after the halving, if the value of BTC drops below 50k, we will see a sharp drop in difficulty? With many miners turning off their machines.

if we hit the ½ ing and drop to 50k it will be crushing to miners

Sorry, but now I don't understand what you mean by "½ ing". Can you clarify?
Thanks.

"1/2 ing" is the same as "Halving"

https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769

https://bitbo.io/halving/

[stompix]

There is no room for everyone post halving, think about it this way, if there was, everyone would have doubled their hashrate by now, simple logic, assume 625 miners and 6.25 BTC reward per block, if you say 625 miners will be happy with 6.25/2 rewards, it means 625*2 miners would be happy with 6.25, which we know isn't the case.

But 625 miners with S19 are 2000KW at 62,5 Peta, while you need only 312 miners with S21 for the same rate at 1100KW, and that's not the s21pro numbers..
If we had had the same gear and nothing new on the horizon I would have also said something 25-30 at least, but with improvement in hash/watts, I think that it will account for the rest.

There won't be a 50% drop in hashrate that's for sure, but only 10% is not doable in my honest opinion, you need to keep in mind that there are many small folks involved, it isn't just those large U.S corps mining BTC, not to say that those are 100% safe either, so ya, BTC below 50k or not, I would say, prepare yourself for some firework.

I know small miners will be hit, I know it from happening to me I see Phil doing the math himself and he was probably better positioned than many others, but I also think there will be a lot who will mine at a small loss being optimistic about the price and in order to not have a bigger loss by giving up rent, deposits, contracts, again here I'm talking not about hobby miners with 2-5 gears, I doubt those at this point make more than 5% of all the hashrate!
You know how you were amazed by how much hash some can still add, of course, that was for the big companies but I think you're underestimating the resilience of the small guys too.

But the best part about this is that, unlike other speculation on what how when who, we will see the outcome clearly in numbers beyond doubt.

So, I will double down on this, I see the hashrate at the end of Q2 higher than the week before the halving!
Let's see by how much I will get it wrong!

I was wondering about this and it will be one of the things to pay attention to in order to learn a little something. I’m on the side of thinking we won’t see a large drop in hashrate just because people are reactive and may even have electricity deals they can’t immediately break as mentioned above.

I think that the few people who knew they wouldn't survive the having have plugged it off already and started selling it, taking advantage of being the first to dump the gear.

So, do you think that after the halving, if the value of BTC drops below 50k, we will see a sharp drop in difficulty? With many miners turning off their machines.

Make it 40k and there will be a flood of popcorn while we get a block every 20 minutes!

[philipma1957]

double down on June 30 diff being at least

85t  or 84t

that is a fun bet that I will not take.



 https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   837571  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.4861%  (932 / 909.39 expected, 22.61 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                            
Current Difficulty:   83126997340024.61                            
Next Difficulty:   between 84610132256801 and 85228582535786
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.7842% and +2.5282%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 5:47 AM  (-0.9779%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 10, 2024 at 9:38 PM  (in 7d 8h 17m 2s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 10, 2024 at 11:59 PM  (in 7d 10h 38m 26s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 50m 57s and 13d 18h 12m 21s

stompix quoted below

"But 625 miners with S19 are 2000KW at 62,5 Peta, while you need only 312 miners with S21 for the same rate at 1100KW, and that's not the s21pro numbers.."

3.3kwatts x 625 = 2062.5 kwatts
3.6kwatts x 312.5 = 1125 kwatts a big but on this  the s21 pros may do 3.8 kwatts in a warm spot 1203.25 kwatts

if you have an s21 and 7 cent power you are good

but there were huge amounts of s19's s19 pros whatsminers m30's and m50's

June of 2023 the diff was 52 trillion it was

mostly a 30 watt a th network at that point in time.

say 350eh maybe 250 eh at 30 watts or more.

So we added 250eh make it all 17-23 watts gear.

I am think all the 30 watt gear is really bent at the 1/2 ing if it is above 6 or 7 cents.

So how much of that 250eh is burning at 6 or more cents.

and btw all is fixed with a rise in cents earned per th

[mikeywith]

But 625 miners with S19 are 2000KW at 62,5 Peta, while you need only 312 miners with S21 for the same rate at 1100KW, and that's not the s21pro numbers..
If we had had the same gear and nothing new on the horizon I would have also said something 25-30 at least, but with improvement in hash/watts, I think that it will account for the rest.

The economics are still the same, gear efficiency only affects the numbers but not the ratio, it makes 10 become 20, or 50 become 25, but it's still a 100% increase and a 50% drop, but while we are at it, let's evaluate this from a different standpoint.

Let's look at the 2020 halving

Price= 10k (50% down from ATH)
total difficulty drop = - 45.6%  (from 25 to 13.6) this took from 11th May to 16 July,  or let's say 2 months or an average of 4 epochs.

When we climbed again to ATH in mid-November, difficulty climbed back to 21.7T, which is a 13% decrease, I would imagine the lowest difficulty drop we can ever get would be a 13% if the halving happens while BTC price is 70k, any lower than that would contribute to more drop in hashrate.

So, I will double down on this, I see the hashrate at the end of Q2 higher than the week before the halving!

It's pretty much going to be determined by the price of BTC by then, but I would say you are most likely to be wrong, the end of Q2 is going to be 2 months and 10 days post-halving, my guess, that period will mark the lowest hashrate for this year and many years to come, it would be like July 2020 after all the dust have settled and all those mining at a loss or no good profit or the YOLO guys will understand it's actually them who need to shut down

The above theory could be further observed by looking at what happens during the halving epoch itself, we went from ATH of 23.6T to 25T, so right around the halving people were hammering the network for those last large gains before the halving, probably dozen trying solo, those planning to shutdown go full blast overclocking their gears, and then the interesting part is that it took nearly 2 months to reach that drop.

I think what explains the 2-month period to reach a new equilibrium is "hope and uncertainty", most miners would be in a dilemma, an one of three scenarios will happen to them.

1- Other people will shutdown first > difficulty will drop > I will be mining at profit again
2- Bitcoin Price will increase > I will be mining at profit again
3- I turn out to be the weakest player in the game > I will shut down

It took 2 months for the dust to settle, it could take as long or even longer this time, but it can't take forever, you may survive a month of mining at break-even or even a loss, maybe 2 months, maybe 3, but you can't keep going forever and at some point you will come to realize that others have a longer breath and it's your time to go, this is a very common psychological fact that nearly all miners have.

[joker_josue]

1- Other people will shutdown first > difficulty will drop > I will be mining at profit again
2- Bitcoin Price will increase > I will be mining at profit again
3- I turn out to be the weakest player in the game > I will shut down

In your opinion, what is the most likely scenario?
Or is this a totally new situation, never faced before, and we are going to enter a new phase in Bitcoin mining?

What impact will there be for Bitcoin if the 3rd scenario is the most common?

[philipma1957]

1- Other people will shutdown first > difficulty will drop > I will be mining at profit again
2- Bitcoin Price will increase > I will be mining at profit again
3- I turn out to be the weakest player in the game > I will shut down

In your opinion, what is the most likely scenario?
Or is this a totally new situation, never faced before, and we are going to enter a new phase in Bitcoin mining?

What impact will there be for Bitcoin if the 3rd scenario is the most common?

All 3 will happen.  The percentage of all above is debatable able.

But 4 and 5 also exist

4) I am selling all my gear and mining later on which is what I will likely do as I prepped and my gear has value and is being sold.

5) some are fully prepped and loaded with 5 cent power and s21's they mine on.

[mikeywith]

In your opinion, what is the most likely scenario?
Or is this a totally new situation, never faced before, and we are going to enter a new phase in Bitcoin mining?

What impact will there be for Bitcoin if the 3rd scenario is the most common?

As Phill pointed out, all three scenarios will happen to different people, someone who runs at 5 cents / kWh and has M60s or S21s will most likely be in category 1, someone with 7 cents and S17s or M20s will be in category 3, it all depends on the profit margin for every individual miner, be it a small miner or a large corporation, we don't have much info to determine what percentage is going to go offline, but we know the profit margin for everyone will go down, the income will be cut by half so;

If you make $100 a day and spend $50 on electricity, maintenance, employees, rent, etc, after the halving you will be making only $50 a day, meaning, if you don't cut down on your operational cost you will be facing some serious issues, and mining is somewhat different from running other business because the power bill makes the majority of your expenses unlike other businesses, the importance of skills or cutting-edge technology is very small, all you do is convert power to BTC, so if you can't cut your power bills, you are in deep shit.

If you take these two miners and do small compassion between them, things start to get clear, according to Sec fillings it costs Cathedra roughly 28k to mine one BTC, that is the direct cost of mining Bitcoin, in other words, power bill only, it would cost them double that (assuming no price change or hashrate drop) after the halving, so that puts them at roughly 56k per BTC mined, they would hardly survive that if the price doesn't spike soon enough, on the other hand, Iris energy according to Sec fillings as well, spend only 12K per BTC, so post halving will be 24k which means they still have a lot of room for profit.

However, the power bill isn't all there is to it when it comes to these large players, they have interest payments and operational costs, which also affect the overall result, because according to the same source, for IRIS, the interest payment + operational cost would be 16k, which puts the overall cost per BTC at 40k not just 24k.

There are a lot of factors here, the most important would be the price of BTC for the following months after the halving.

[philipma1957]

In your opinion, what is the most likely scenario?
Or is this a totally new situation, never faced before, and we are going to enter a new phase in Bitcoin mining?

What impact will there be for Bitcoin if the 3rd scenario is the most common?

As Phill pointed out, all three scenarios will happen to different people, someone who runs at 5 cents / kWh and has M60s or S21s will most likely be in category 1, someone with 7 cents and S17s or M20s will be in category 3, it all depends on the profit margin for every individual miner, be it a small miner or a large corporation, we don't have much info to determine what percentage is going to go offline, but we know the profit margin for everyone will go down, the income will be cut by half so;

If you make $100 a day and spend $50 on electricity, maintenance, employees, rent, etc, after the halving you will be making only $50 a day, meaning, if you don't cut down on your operational cost you will be facing some serious issues, and mining is somewhat different from running other business because the power bill makes the majority of your expenses unlike other businesses, the importance of skills or cutting-edge technology is very small, all you do is convert power to BTC, so if you can't cut your power bills, you are in deep shit.

If you take these two miners and do small compassion between them, things start to get clear, according to Sec fillings it costs Cathedra roughly 28k to mine one BTC, that is the direct cost of mining Bitcoin, in other words, power bill only, it would cost them double that (assuming no price change or hashrate drop) after the halving, so that puts them at roughly 56k per BTC mined, they would hardly survive that if the price doesn't spike soon enough, on the other hand, Iris energy according to Sec fillings as well, spend only 12K per BTC, so post halving will be 24k which means they still have a lot of room for profit.

However, the power bill isn't all there is to it when it comes to these large players, they have interest payments and operational costs, which also affect the overall result, because according to the same source, for IRIS, the interest payment + operational cost would be 16k, which puts the overall cost per BTC at 40k not just 24k.

There are a lot of factors here, the most important would be the price of BTC for the following months after the halving.

I know a lot of miners will hang in at small loss numbers. For a month or two or three.
But I know price could drop to 50k and fees suck which will push miners out.

I have 70kwatts at clifton. and in 2 weeks everyone mines at a loss. with the exception of the two gpu miners we have going.

[joker_josue]

I know it will be difficult. But, will mining change to being done only by small miners, who mine for the love of the sweater, and not by big miners?

Today, we have this scenario, which is not very favorable for miners in general, and the cost of energy is not expected to fall much further in the coming years. In 4 years we will have another cut in block mining.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   838341  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   103.9644%  (1702 / 1637.10 expected, 64.9 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                            
Current Difficulty:   83126997340024.61                            
Next Difficulty:   between 86358653755094 and 86442204964986
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.8876% and +3.9881%
Previous Retarget:   March 28, 2024 at 5:47 AM  (-0.9779%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 4:58 PM  (in 2d 2h 20m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 5:17 PM  (in 2d 2h 38m 54s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 11h 11m 15s and 13d 11h 29m 54s

big big shift +3.96%

quote

Latest Block:   838489  (34 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.8188%  (1850 / 1781.95 expected, 68.05 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                            
Current Difficulty:   83126997340024.61                            
Next Difficulty:   between 86297103606697 and 86319575037317
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.8136% and +3.8406%
Previous Retarget:   March 28, 2024 at 5:47 AM  (-0.9779%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 5:25 PM  (in 1d 2h 38m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 5:30 PM  (in 1d 2h 43m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 11h 38m 26s and 13d 11h 43m 28s




still near +3.8%

this is the last jump before 1/2 ing


plus 4.1%

Latest Block:   838645  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   104.0996%  (2006 / 1927.00 expected, 79 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                           
Current Difficulty:   83126997340024.61                           
Next Difficulty:   between 86551522690517 and 86551610423537
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.1196% and +4.1197%
Previous Retarget:   March 28, 2024 at 5:47 AM  (-0.9779%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 4:33 PM  (in 0d 1h 36m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 4:33 PM  (in 0d 1h 36m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 10h 46m 4s and 13d 10h 46m 5s

[mikeywith]

So the current difficulty is 86388558925171.02 (86.1T), it's the week before the halving, so for @stompix to be correct in his double down bid, we need to be at > 86.1T by the end of June, I think that was a bit too far stretched for stompy and he is going be to be wrong yet again .

Anyway, this epoch is going to drag a little longer than average, the halving takes place at block 840,000, we are at block 838,822 so 1,178 blocks away from halving and 1,849 blocks away from diff change, the remaining 671 blocks are probably going to take at least 20% more time to finish, in other words, 12 minutes on average, so far the pace is -10%, we are roughly 8 days away from the fireworks.

I believe fees are picking up because

1- the current pace is slow
2- people expect it will keep getting worse as we move further to the halving
3- diff change is going to drag and the remaining days post-halving before diff drops would make the block intervals even higher which would bring fees to higher levels.

Seems like everyone is trying to outsmart everyone else..

[joker_josue]

Seems like everyone is trying to outsmart everyone else..

So with this Ordenals trend, everyone wants to record the first block after the halving.

This can be advantageous for miners, as they end up making more money before the cut. Perhaps this allows some miners to obtain a financial cushion that allows them to bear the brunt of the reward reduction.


One thing is certain, the network is getting clogged, and we already have a negative forecast of almost 10% in the next difficulty adjustment.

Latest Block:   838835  (35 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   89.1477%  (180 / 201.91 expected, 21.91 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   83126997340024.61                           
Current Difficulty:   86388558925171.02                           
Next Difficulty:   between 77304402617038 and 84690729823373
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.5155% and -1.9653%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 10:09 PM  (+3.9236%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 25, 2024 at 5:08 AM  (in 12d 21h 19m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 26, 2024 at 3:04 PM  (in 14d 7h 15m 1s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 58m 40s and 15d 16h 54m 9s

[philipma1957]

fees have run at about 1 btc for the last 100 blocks.

So the new ½ ing  would mean 3.125 + 1 = 4.125 which is not exactly a ½ ing

evidence shows they know how to clog the mempool and that 2023 to now has been the most clogged ever

[joker_josue]

evidence shows they know how to clog the mempool and that 2023 to now has been the most clogged ever

They who?
It's difficult to find out who is really clogging up the mempool. Whether the Ordinals crowd or the pools crowd.

[NeuroticFish]

They who?
It's difficult to find out who is really clogging up the mempool. Whether the Ordinals crowd or the pools crowd.

I'll guess that he's referring to big miners. The Ordinals crowd has no benefit from clogged mempool nor the tools for doing this systematically.

[philipma1957]

They who?
It's difficult to find out who is really clogging up the mempool. Whether the Ordinals crowd or the pools crowd.

I'll guess that he's referring to big miners. The Ordinals crowd has no benefit from clogged mempool nor the tools for doing this systematically.

the miners have enough power to toy with the diff.

the foundry pool has a minimum 20ph amount for miners 200 s19j pros or 100 s21 units

they run 190eh as a pool.

 They can simply back off  hash rate like this adjustment so far. Then clog the pool with your own transactions, make lots  of txs at 8 sats and white list them.
then on the back end of the jump mine  the fat blocks like mad.

Best of all the difficulty stays fairly flat each jump by the time you are done.

[joker_josue]

Best of all the difficulty stays fairly flat each jump by the time you are done.

Well... that's what I think too.
The best for miners outside of these large pools. Because for the network, everything ends up getting messed up.

Why maybe they don't do this in every cycle? In recent cycles, the network has not been clogged.

[stompix]

So we had a +3.9% and we're looking at +1.9% while the price is going right now at -13% on the week.

And this means income per th/s is down to 9.88, we get 4.94 cents after halving.
This is going to hurt a bit, but I still think it will be temporary, I'm still standing on my Q2 gamble, although that last almost 4% jump was a bit of an unexpected move.

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

[philipma1957]

So we had a +3.9% and we're looking at +1.9% while the price is going right now at -13% on the week.

And this means income per th/s is down to 9.88, we get 4.94 cents after halving.
This is going to hurt a bit, but I still think it will be temporary, I'm still standing on my Q2 gamble, although that last almost 4% jump was a bit of an unexpected move.

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

so in 2-3 days we go to 4.7 cents

an s21 does 200th or $9.40 earnings

burns 87 kwatts  make it 90kwatts


the is 9.90 dollars   with 11 cent power
this is 9.00 dollars   with 10 cent power
this is 8.10 dollars   with 9 cent power
this is 7.20 dollars   with 8 cent power


so the s21 will be okay for low power miners.
the     t21 is $8.93  EARNED

SO IT IS OKAY at 8 cents
even 9 cents

but all s19's are hurting like mad.

s19 xp earns  6.58 burns 80kwatts  it will work with 7 cent power.

so far things are shaky

[NotATether]

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.

What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

[philipma1957]

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.

What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

I so agree with this.  I post a photo showing the last 7 years of the mempool over and over as it is clearly showing the spam is here to stay and slowly growing.

[joker_josue]

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.

What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

I so agree with this.  I post a photo showing the last 7 years of the mempool over and over as it is clearly showing the spam is here to stay and slowly growing.

Looking at this graph, it can be seen that since the beginning of 2023, rates have risen significantly compared to other periods, and are not as low as before.

Perhaps it is an increase in transaction movements, and the coincidence with the emergence of Ordinals, is just that coincidence. But, I have my doubts.

[stompix]

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.
What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

Well my bad, sometimes I really forget that I need to add extra details when talking about something, In my mind I know I've said it before so I assume that everyone knows what I'm talking about!

I don't think ordinals will ever go away! EVER!
I think that as long as 1sat/vb will mean every guy in this universe with 4-5k to spare might want to inscribe his name to be there forever in one full block will be able to do it, and pretty cheaply considering the amount of people spend for shit around! So the spam will keep going at 1sat/vb, but I don't think it will manage to keep going for long at rates of 100sat/vb, since this will no longer imply some maniacs but an actual industry to support 1.5 mils and over a day.

Much like expensive wine, you do have a few clients for 50k bottles but no way Walmart is going to sell only bottles above 1000.

Also, real life is full of surprises, back in September I opened this topic:
When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations?
most were saying never, a long time, bla bla..
It hit 1sat on October 03, 2023.

Dif is still at 1.7%, halving in a day and a bit, price back up a bit.
Time to get the popcorn ready, place a few bets, and enjoy the shitshow

[joker_josue]

Much like expensive wine, you do have a few clients for 50k bottles but no way Walmart is going to sell only bottles above 1000.

A good comparison for fees. I agree that the fee will not always stay high, the market will come to a point when it can no longer support this.

But, for me, the worst thing about Ordinals, besides raising rates, is causing clogging in the mempool, damaging the entire ecosystem, no matter if the fee is high or low.

[philipma1957]

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.
What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

Well my bad, sometimes I really forget that I need to add extra details when talking about something, In my mind I know I've said it before so I assume that everyone knows what I'm talking about!

I don't think ordinals will ever go away! EVER!
I think that as long as 1sat/vb will mean every guy in this universe with 4-5k to spare might want to inscribe his name to be there forever in one full block will be able to do it, and pretty cheaply considering the amount of people spend for shit around! So the spam will keep going at 1sat/vb, but I don't think it will manage to keep going for long at rates of 100sat/vb, since this will no longer imply some maniacs but an actual industry to support 1.5 mils and over a day.

Much like expensive wine, you do have a few clients for 50k bottles but no way Walmart is going to sell only bottles above 1000.

Also, real life is full of surprises, back in September I opened this topic:
When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations?
most were saying never, a long time, bla bla..
It hit 1sat on October 03, 2023.

Dif is still at 1.7%, halving in a day and a bit, price back up a bit.
Time to get the popcorn ready, place a few bets, and enjoy the shitshow

we will get some low fees.  the method i list for a big company means ordinal attacks are on and off.

and while we had 1 sat in oct 2023. we have over 3btc a block for most of dec and jan.

[philipma1957]

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.
What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

Well my bad, sometimes I really forget that I need to add extra details when talking about something, In my mind I know I've said it before so I assume that everyone knows what I'm talking about!

I don't think ordinals will ever go away! EVER!
I think that as long as 1sat/vb will mean every guy in this universe with 4-5k to spare might want to inscribe his name to be there forever in one full block will be able to do it, and pretty cheaply considering the amount of people spend for shit around! So the spam will keep going at 1sat/vb, but I don't think it will manage to keep going for long at rates of 100sat/vb, since this will no longer imply some maniacs but an actual industry to support 1.5 mils and over a day.

Much like expensive wine, you do have a few clients for 50k bottles but no way Walmart is going to sell only bottles above 1000.

Also, real life is full of surprises, back in September I opened this topic:
When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations?
most were saying never, a long time, bla bla..
It hit 1sat on October 03, 2023.

Dif is still at 1.7%, halving in a day and a bit, price back up a bit.
Time to get the popcorn ready, place a few bets, and enjoy the shitshow

we will get some low fees.  the method i list for a big company means ordinal attacks are on and off.

and while we had 1 sat in oct 2023. we have over 3btc a block for most of dec and jan.

tick tock

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   839923  (37 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.1596%  (1268 / 1241.20 expected, 26.8 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83126997340024.61                            
Current Difficulty:   86388558925171.02                            
Next Difficulty:   between 88038950002524 and 88308275794963
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.9104% and +2.2222%
Previous Retarget:   April 10, 2024 at 5:09 PM  (+3.9236%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 10:03 AM  (in 5d 2h 1m 52s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 11:02 AM  (in 5d 3h 0m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 53m 49s and 13d 17h 52m 29s

we are 77 from the ½ ing. 840,000 - 839,923 = 77

ugh

[mikeywith]

So viabtc mined the last block, Braiins pool mined the first one in this halving.

The current numbers are as follows:

Latest Block:
840003  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:
102.4057%  (1348 / 1316.33 expected, 31.67 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:
83126997340024.61                           
Current Difficulty:
86388558925171.02                           
Next Difficulty:
between 88279043830965 and 88517950821431
Next Difficulty Change:
between +2.1884% and +2.4649%
Previous Retarget:
April 10, 2024 at 11:09 PM  (+3.9236%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
Wednesday at 3:16 PM  (in 4d 12h 43m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):
Wednesday at 4:08 PM  (in 4d 13h 35m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 13d 16h 6m 23s and 13d 16h 58m 23s

Let's see how we do going forward, the ordinals folks are jamming the blockchain with fees up to 2500sat/vbyte, antpool just mined a 27btc block, so rewards are even greater than before the halving, this would likely stop difficulty from going down until Ordinals folks decide which block number is not worth much.

[joker_josue]

Let's see how we do going forward, the ordinals folks are jamming the blockchain with fees up to 2500sat/vbyte, antpool just mined a 27btc block, so rewards are even greater than before the halving, this would likely stop difficulty from going down until Ordinals folks decide which block number is not worth much.

The crowd went completely crazy! This will only make the market stop. I refer to the market, where the money comes from, because it becomes practically impossible to sell/buy BTC. Well, it's not impossible, but it's not very viable for lower amounts.

[mikeywith]

The crowd went completely crazy! This will only make the market stop. I refer to the market, where the money comes from, because it becomes practically impossible to sell/buy BTC. Well, it's not impossible, but it's not very viable for lower amounts.

Fees are hight due to Bitcoin Runes protocol, created by the same guy who invented Ordinals, it went live with the halving which is the reason why this happened.

Also, just like how things ended for Ordinals, I believe this hype will be short lived, when not enough people buy into it -- it will stop, greedy people are looking for ways to get rich overnight, some of them will, the majority will just lose money.

[joker_josue]

Fees are hight due to Bitcoin Runes protocol, created by the same guy who invented Ordinals, it went live with the halving which is the reason why this happened.

What protocol is this "Bitcoin Runes" and what does it do?
By the way, I had never heard of this protocol... But maybe I was the one who was distracted. 

[RickDeckard]

What protocol is this "Bitcoin Runes" and what does it do?
By the way, I had never heard of this protocol... But maybe I was the one who was distracted. 

It is another creation made by the same guy who created the concept of Ordinals - Casey Rodarmor. You can read about his idea of Runes in his own blog where he first posted about it[1]. While I had heard the concept, I haven't found the time to read his interpretation of why he thought that Ordinals and Rune were beneficial to the network.
[1]https://rodarmor.com/blog/runes/

[stompix]

So who had those on their Halving Bitcoin card:
- fees will reach 1000sat/vb
- mining income will be greater after the halving than before
- the hash rate will grow after the halving

This is so fucked up on so many levels.

What protocol is this "Bitcoin Runes" and what does it do?

It's a thing that was supposed to be more space friendly compared to brc-20, while keeping up the hype about it.
Of course, between supposed and hype madness there is a difference that you can see it live.

[joker_josue]

What protocol is this "Bitcoin Runes" and what does it do?
By the way, I had never heard of this protocol... But maybe I was the one who was distracted. 

It is another creation made by the same guy who created the concept of Ordinals - Casey Rodarmor. You can read about his idea of Runes in his own blog where he first posted about it[1]. While I had heard the concept, I haven't found the time to read his interpretation of why he thought that Ordinals and Rune were beneficial to the network.
[1]https://rodarmor.com/blog/runes/

Well, I only read a lot of it, but your first and last paragraphs say that "maybe it's not a good idea, as it could be misused". In short, he created something that the party, based on previous experience, would not have been very positive about.

But maybe I'm the one who understands little about the subject. 

[stompix]

I know, it's just a day, luck, random, all the stuff but still:

Latest Block:   840832  (12 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   104.8704%  (161 / 153.52 expected, 7.48 ahead)
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 5:45 PM  (+1.9859%)

Probably the last positive adjustment was not much of a surprise due to the fees, but another positive adjustment?
Or are we going to see it drop on the 1st as some will decide to cut power at the end of the month?

Viabtc still shows 9 cents but that won't as long as that's the average including that 1000BTC in extra fees in a day, bitinfo is quoting 0.0549 USD/THash.
So, is anyone betting on another positive adjustment?

[joker_josue]

Viabtc still shows 9 cents but that won't as long as that's the average including that 1000BTC in extra fees in a day, bitinfo is quoting 0.0549 USD/THash.
So, is anyone betting on another positive adjustment?

I would say that if the value of fees continues to fall, and remains at normal values - before the halving - the next update will be negative.

It was still positive, because it is packed with the high rates that occurred in the last week and because we are in the middle of the month - it is not worth turning off the machines in the middle of the month.

[philipma1957]

Viabtc still shows 9 cents but that won't as long as that's the average including that 1000BTC in extra fees in a day, bitinfo is quoting 0.0549 USD/THash.
So, is anyone betting on another positive adjustment?

I would say that if the value of fees continues to fall, and remains at normal values - before the halving - the next update will be negative.

It was still positive, because it is packed with the high rates that occurred in the last week and because we are in the middle of the month - it is not worth turning off the machines in the middle of the month.

well last ten block fees are

0.37
0.41
0.35
0.66
0.57
0.52
0.33
0.26
0.22
0.37



and viabtc is paying

0.0678 a th


if we drop to 0.05 a th the diff will tank

but at 0.0678

a s19 110th pro does $7.458 a day and burn $6.60 a day at 6 cents

all big miners are at 6 six cents or better

so they are fine unit payout drops to 0.05

that would do

$5.50 a day and burn $6.60 a day. this is on s19 pro 110th

now think of the t21

190 th x 0.05 =       $9.50
 92 kwatts x 0.06 = $5.52
                              4.00 profit if we drop to  5 cents a th.

I would argue  that mining won't drop as the t21 easily makes money at 6 cent power.

[stompix]

and viabtc is paying
0.0678 a th

But isn't that 7 days average?
The daily reward has dropped like a stone, last blocked ‎3.377 BTC, which would be 490 BTC, let's keep things simple
500 BTC x 63 000k / 600 000 000 it would be  5.25 cents.

Anyhow, you kept mining or you started packing up?
Wonder how mikeywith is doing too, let's see if he drops a few lines ..
FUDGEEEEEEEEE!

I would say that if the value of fees continues to fall, and remains at normal values - before the halving - the next update will be negative.

It dropped for a moment somewhere last night when I checked to just +2 blocks, but still positive

Latest Block:   841112  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.9919%  (441 / 432.39 expected, 8.61 ahead)

It will be for sure negative at the end of the period, it's a bit of nonsense to see it grow at the worst income per th we had in a year.

[philipma1957]

and viabtc is paying
0.0678 a th

But isn't that 7 days average?
The daily reward has dropped like a stone, last blocked ‎3.377 BTC, which would be 490 BTC, let's keep things simple
500 BTC x 63 000k / 600 000 000 it would be  5.25 cents.

Anyhow, you kept mining or you started packing up?
Wonder how mikeywith is doing too, let's see if he drops a few lines ..
FUDGEEEEEEEEE!

I would say that if the value of fees continues to fall, and remains at normal values - before the halving - the next update will be negative.

It dropped for a moment somewhere last night when I checked to just +2 blocks, but still positive

Latest Block:   841112  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.9919%  (441 / 432.39 expected, 8.61 ahead)

It will be for sure negative at the end of the period, it's a bit of nonsense to see it grow at the worst income per th we had in a year.

My large Clifton farm is gone.

Got a house full of gear

Slowing selling the gpus at the moment.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/166730324848

https://www.ebay.com/fdbk/feedback_profile/philipma1957

It will take me months to sell the gear.

Sucks but gear is all paid off

Sold off about 10,000 in last 40 days

[mikeywith]

But isn't that 7 days average?
The daily reward has dropped like a stone, last blocked ‎3.377 BTC, which would be 490 BTC, let's keep things simple
500 BTC x 63 000k / 600 000 000 it would be  5.25 cents.

My actual payout per PH is as follows, just to show others the affect of transaction fees.

20-4-2024   = 0.0027BTC/ph
28-4-2024   = 0.00075BTC/ph

so that's 48$ per ph which is 4.8 cents per th, so even worse than what you calculated above  , which sucks!

Wonder how mikeywith is doing too, let's see if he drops a few lines ..
FUDGEEEEEEEEE!

That's some serious fudge to be honest lol, I mean if you have S19 Pro and 7 cents you are basically mining at break-even, S19 pro might not be the latest gen but how old is it? and how much was it sold for? I would be very upset if I had that, then even if we were to assume that you magically had a 5 5-cent power rate which is pretty low by today's standard, that would be $2 a day, worse than S9 on its worst days a few years ago.

Remember, here we are only talking about the electricity bill, nothing more, if the difficulty doesn't drop then the ROI for all gears bought this year and even a few months prior to the halving will be NEVER, not in a year, not in 3 years even if you had 2-3 cents power, which is why I still think that miners are now playing the chicken game, there is no way that all current hashrate can be sustained with the current price and transaction fee.

It will be for sure negative at the end of the period, it's a bit of nonsense to see it grow at the worst income per th we had in a year.

Ya, it's very unlikely to see it grow, in fact, i would say the same thing about the previous epoch (I did say) but then thanks to the transaction fees, blocks were larger than before the halving, but then again, if all large miners are playing the chicken game it means they are all pushing the pedal harder, so it won't be impossible for this epoch or even the next one to have some upside until the cars crash into one another and the weak cars leave.

Although I still think, that the chicken game is still being played even if all players are already at their last bit of it and can't push any further, the few coming epochs will be fun to watch, if the price doesn't go up or even worse/better goes down, get your self some large supply of popcorn and fudge while you watch things unfold.

Phill, hope you holding strong bro, I feel for you.

[philipma1957]

But isn't that 7 days average?
The daily reward has dropped like a stone, last blocked ‎3.377 BTC, which would be 490 BTC, let's keep things simple
500 BTC x 63 000k / 600 000 000 it would be  5.25 cents.

My actual payout per PH is as follows, just to show others the affect of transaction fees.

20-11-2024   = 0.0027BTC/ph
28-11-2024   = 0.00075BTC/ph

so that's 48$ per ph which is 4.8 cents per th, so even worse than what you calculated above  , which sucks!

Wonder how mikeywith is doing too, let's see if he drops a few lines ..
FUDGEEEEEEEEE!

That's some serious fudge to be honest lol, I mean if you have S19 Pro and 7 cents you are basically mining at break-even, S19 pro might not be the latest gen but how old is it? and how much was it sold for? I would be very upset if I had that, then even if we were to assume that you magically had a 5 5-cent power rate which is pretty low by today's standard, that would be $2 a day, worse than S9 on its worst days a few years ago.

Remember, here we are only talking about the electricity bill, nothing more, if the difficulty doesn't drop then the ROI for all gears bought this year and even a few months prior to the halving will be NEVER, not in a year, not in 3 years even if you had 2-3 cents power, which is why I still think that miners are now playing the chicken game, there is no way that all current hashrate can be sustained with the current price and transaction fee.

It will be for sure negative at the end of the period, it's a bit of nonsense to see it grow at the worst income per th we had in a year.

Ya, it's very unlikely to see it grow, in fact, i would say the same thing about the previous epoch (I did say) but then thanks to the transaction fees, blocks were larger than before the halving, but then again, if all large miners are playing the chicken game it means they are all pushing the pedal harder, so it won't be impossible for this epoch or even the next one to have some upside until the cars crash into one another and the weak cars leave.

Although I still think, that the chicken game is still being played even if all players are already at their last bit of it and can't push any further, the few coming epochs will be fun to watch, if the price doesn't go up or even worse/better goes down, get your self some large supply of popcorn and fudge while you watch things unfold.

Phill, hope you holding strong bro, I feel for you.

yeah I am done. mining a few kwatts at a loss at home.  and selling gpus on eBay.

[joker_josue]

yeah I am done. mining a few kwatts at a loss at home.  and selling gpus on eBay.

It really is a shame to have to leave mining like this.

What do you think it would take to get back? Get cheaper energy or more efficient mining equipment?

[paid2]

What do you think it would take to get back? Get cheaper energy or more efficient mining equipment?

Or a huge drop of the difficulty, or blocks with multiple BTC of fees..

[stompix]

We're going negative, as expected although this might be again luck

Latest Block:   841369  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.2938%  (698 / 710.12 expected, 12.12 behind)

Now, the interesting thing is that we lost 12 blocks but the fees are down to 17 sat/vb as I type this, so there is no demand for space, no jump in fees anymore, the last block has just 0.28 BTC so not even 10% of the block reward, we're looking at a 40% loss in revenue not profit!

If the price goes to 60k or below then we have another 10% before that, a huge load of fudge!

As mikey said, someone will have to blink and if they don't and they go still full throttle this is just going to be worse for them all in a few months, I wouldn't want to be a guy who has poured all his investors money in a plan of 10exahash right now, especially if those weren't money from usual ventures but the government back dor deals.

That's some serious fudge to be honest lol, I mean if you have S19 Pro and 7 cents you are basically mining at break-even, S19 pro might not be the latest gen but how old is it? and how much was it sold for? I would be very upset if I had that, then even if we were to assume that you magically had a 5 5-cent power rate which is pretty low by today's standard, that would be $2 a day, worse than S9 on its worst days a few years ago.

I still have two of them singing in the basement, the power is of no concern since till autumn I can deal with 10KW, but in August I will retire them if we're still in this price range, they did a great job at heating the floor in a stone/concrete building but I don't need that in summer and going above peak allowed consumption I will have to pay 12eurocents/kwh, no f way!

Plus, and this is the most important thing, I got bored with them!

[philipma1957]

yeah I am done. mining a few kwatts at a loss at home.  and selling gpus on eBay.

It really is a shame to have to leave mining like this.

What do you think it would take to get back? Get cheaper energy or more efficient mining equipment?

A good site and I would go back into larger scale mining.

5-6 cent power would be good at least 2 years worth of it.

[joker_josue]

A good site and I would go back into larger scale mining.

5-6 cent power would be good at least 2 years worth of it.

Well, finding a place with 6 cents for energy in the US must be complicated.
It has to be a huge energy contract, to get values close to that.

[philipma1957]

A good site and I would go back into larger scale mining.

5-6 cent power would be good at least 2 years worth of it.

Well, finding a place with 6 cents for energy in the US must be complicated.
It has to be a huge energy contract, to get values close to that.

I am done for now shit happens and it did.

I will continue to mine a bit at a loss and sell off the gpus.

I will likely never mine at the 200-250kwatt level again.

I will develop good practical home miners for usa home miners.

I am playing with 1 board t21 using a 1500 watt 120 volt psu that can range from 12.5volt to 15.2 volt

with the Loki spoof chip. I hope to have a working model of this in under 1 -2 weeks.

As to why the mine ended I will say I failed to keep the other three guys in agreement as to the best options possible. So we broke it up instead.

Not the best way but it is the way it happened.

[joker_josue]

I will develop good practical home miners for usa home miners.

This looks interesting. Can you share more details about this?


And never say never. Sometimes new opportunities may arise. If it weren't for the distance, maybe we could make a good team. 

[philipma1957]

I will develop good practical home miners for usa home miners.

This looks interesting. Can you share more details about this?


And never say never. Sometimes new opportunities may arise. If it weren't for the distance, maybe we could make a good team. 

USA stock power is 120 volts

Normal outlet can do 1800 watts.

So to hook up a miner with no electrical work at all.

So a top notch miner needs to be under 1500 watts. At full speed.

I think a top notch home miner needs to run from 400-1200 watts.
It needs to have a flexible gui.

I think I can do all this.

[joker_josue]

I think I can do all this.

What will be the hash power capacity?

What chips will you use and how will you try to sell the equipment?

[philipma1957]

I think I can do all this.

What will be the hash power capacity?

What chips will you use and how will you try to sell the equipment?

this would be the t21 board

it would max at around 55-63 th

it would have the epic controller

it would have the loki chip

it would have a special psu not the  bitmain apw3++

I am still recovering from my surgery and have not tried building it.

if all works out I will sell them.

[joker_josue]

I am still recovering from my surgery and have not tried building it.

if all works out I will sell them.

Good recovery, and then let us know here when you have this type of equipment built, so we can appreciate it. 

[philipma1957]

I am still recovering from my surgery and have not tried building it.

if all works out I will sell them.

Good recovery, and then let us know here when you have this type of equipment built, so we can appreciate it.  

thanks bro.


well current numbers for earning are brutal


0.0476 usd a th

or

$4.76 for 100 th

$9.52 for 200 th

so the s21 earns $9.52  since it burns  92 kwatts you need 7 cent power


10 cent = $9.20
 9  cent = $8.28
 8 cent  = $7.36
 7 cent  = $6.44
 6 cent  = $5.52        so if you have all s21 and have 6 cent power you are smiling  since you clear  9.52-5.52= 4 bucks a unit

but if you have 7 cent power and all s19 units


$4.76 earned and 75kwatts burned means

 10 cent = $7.50
  9 cent =  $6.75
  8 cent =  $6.00
  7 cent =  $5.25
  6 cent =  $4.50                basically all in the red

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   841652  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.7369%  (981 / 1003.72 expected, 22.72 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   86388558925171.02                            
Current Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                            
Next Difficulty:   between 86169221431587 and 86670929047296
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.1962% and -1.6268%
Previous Retarget:   April 24, 2024 at 10:45 AM  (+1.9859%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 8, 2024 at 4:28 PM  (in 7d 6h 26m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 8, 2024 at 6:31 PM  (in 7d 8h 29m 39s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 43m 46s and 14d 7h 46m 48s

lets see if we shake out more miners price dropped under 58k

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   841942  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.5029%  (1271 / 1317.06 expected, 46.06 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   86388558925171.02                           
Current Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                           
Next Difficulty:   between 85067458539019 and 85469762182716
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.4468% and -2.9901%
Previous Retarget:   April 24, 2024 at 10:45 AM  (+1.9859%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 9:15 PM  (in 5d 7h 0m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 10:55 PM  (in 5d 8h 39m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 30m 47s and 14d 12h 10m 33s

[stompix]

So, did I finally get some bits of a prediction right?
Seems miners are far more resilient than one thought:
before the halving, the adjustment was to 86.39 T   
immediately after the halving we still got positive, 88.10 T
current estimates are at 85,0X T
this would make the drop slightly above 2% from the before halving one, and with income dropping (according to charts) to 4.37 cents per th/s, I'm starting to believe that I was right with some large miners being trapped into this game and ramping up operation because stopping would bankrupt them instantly so they are betting everything on the future prices.

Of course, speculation on how much new and more efficient gear is already in place, but I would be surprised to hear more than 1/3 is below 0.02j/Gh.

Luckily for some miners, there are still runes being minted.

I am still recovering from my surgery and have not tried building it.

Hope you're getting better by the day Phil!


 

[philipma1957]

So, did I finally get some bits of a prediction right?
Seems miners are far more resilient than one thought:
before the halving, the adjustment was to 86.39 T   
immediately after the halving we still got positive, 88.10 T
current estimates are at 85,0X T
this would make the drop slightly above 2% from the before halving one, and with income dropping (according to charts) to 4.37 cents per th/s, I'm starting to believe that I was right with some large miners being trapped into this game and ramping up operation because stopping would bankrupt them instantly so they are betting everything on the future prices.

Of course, speculation on how much new and more efficient gear is already in place, but I would be surprised to hear more than 1/3 is below 0.02j/Gh.

Luckily for some miners, there are still runes being minted.

I am still recovering from my surgery and have not tried building it.

Hope you're getting better by the day Phil!


 

The sinus repair seems healed. MOST pain now is in the cut straighted and reattached septum. Maybe 7-10 days and that will stop.

As for mining and miners. We will not see a big turn down say 70t vs 85t.

A 100 th unit makes 4.40 usd a day.
It burns 75 k-watts

At 6 cents it is 4.50 a tiny loss or break even.

AT 5 cents it is 3.75 a small profit.

But if 50% of your 6 cent farm is t21 or s21 and the other 50% is s19 100th.

You get 8.80 for the s21 and burn 85 k-watts
You get 4.40 for the s19 and burn 75 k-watts

So 13.20 earned and 9.60 burned at six cents gives me 3.60 profit for mining 1 s21 and 1 s19j pro 100 th

Also the s19jpro with brains can tweak down to maybe 27 watts a th.

So I think a lot of farms are mixed with s19 pro j 100th and s21 they can mine on with out knocking off the s19

[mikeywith]

So, did I finally get some bits of a prediction right?
Seems miners are far more resilient than one thought:
before the halving, the adjustment was to 86.39 T   
immediately after the halving we still got positive, 88.10 T
current estimates are at 85,0X T
this would make the drop slightly above 2% from the before halving one, and with income dropping (according to charts) to 4.37 cents per th/s, I'm starting to believe that I

You may end up being right, but it's too early to judge, I did mention in my "before the halving post"

Let's look at the 2020 halving

Price= 10k (50% down from ATH)
total difficulty drop = - 45.6%  (from 25 to 13.6) this took from 11th May to 16 July,  or let's say 2 months or an average of 4 epochs.

When we climbed again to ATH in mid-November, difficulty climbed back to 21.7T, which is a 13% decrease, I would imagine the lowest difficulty drop we can ever get would be a 13% if the halving happens while BTC price is 70k, any lower than that would contribute to more drop in hashrate.

We would need to wait for 4 epochs to be certain of the halving effect, and as for this halving, we may have to wait for a bit longer because transaction fees during and after the halving changed everything and made mining more profitable than before the halving, it makes no sense for us not to drop that 13% or even more, I still think we will do just that in 4 epochs when the chicken game is over, as for the numbers phill laid out above, they are correct but they don't take into account any other expenses, those large miners can't survive with a few cents profit post power bill, their expences are far greater than just that, they would get to the point where they have to liquidate just to pay interest.

Also, most importantly, Phill I pray for your fast recovery, get well soon my friend.

[philipma1957]

So, did I finally get some bits of a prediction right?
Seems miners are far more resilient than one thought:
before the halving, the adjustment was to 86.39 T   
immediately after the halving we still got positive, 88.10 T
current estimates are at 85,0X T
this would make the drop slightly above 2% from the before halving one, and with income dropping (according to charts) to 4.37 cents per th/s, I'm starting to believe that I

You may end up being right, but it's too early to judge, I did mention in my "before the halving post"

Let's look at the 2020 halving

Price= 10k (50% down from ATH)
total difficulty drop = - 45.6%  (from 25 to 13.6) this took from 11th May to 16 July,  or let's say 2 months or an average of 4 epochs.

When we climbed again to ATH in mid-November, difficulty climbed back to 21.7T, which is a 13% decrease, I would imagine the lowest difficulty drop we can ever get would be a 13% if the halving happens while BTC price is 70k, any lower than that would contribute to more drop in hashrate.

We would need to wait for 4 epochs to be certain of the halving effect, and as for this halving, we may have to wait for a bit longer because transaction fees during and after the halving changed everything and made mining more profitable than before the halving, it makes no sense for us not to drop that 13% or even more, I still think we will do just that in 4 epochs when the chicken game is over, as for the numbers phill laid out above, they are correct but they don't take into account any other expenses, those large miners can't survive with a few cents profit post power bill, their expences are far greater than just that, they would get to the point where they have to liquidate just to pay interest.

Also, most importantly, Phill I pray for your fast recovery, get well soon my friend.

Thank you it is healing on schedule.

No more bleeding even if I sneeze.

I see the Doctor for follow. Up in 8 days.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   842448  (23 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.3751%  (1777 / 1863.17 expected, 86.17 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   86388558925171.02                            
Current Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                            
Next Difficulty:   between 84060483253225 and 84114742038688
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.5897% and -4.5281%
Previous Retarget:   April 24, 2024 at 10:45 AM  (+1.9859%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 2:48 AM  (in 1d 17h 32m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 3:02 AM  (in 1d 17h 45m 53s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 16h 3m 50s and 14d 16h 17m 34s


we have a decent drop. many are selling gear on ebay at low prices

ebay price is a good way to judge how bad things are.

I listed two s19 xps

best prices on ebay

and a return policy


and no one wants them


A sure indicator of a troubled retail market.


https://www.ebay.com/str/philipma1957computergearandmore

no one has a better deal than that and they just sit.

[joker_josue]

ebay price is a good way to judge how bad things are.

I listed two s19 xps

best prices on ebay

and a return policy


and no one wants them


A sure indicator of a troubled retail market.


https://www.ebay.com/str/philipma1957computergearandmore

no one has a better deal than that and they just sit.

Well, it looks like you've already managed to sell what you put on eBay.
I visited your page and it is empty. But I found it very interesting that you have already sold more than 1.4 articles. He really is an ebay expert.

[philipma1957]

ebay price is a good way to judge how bad things are.

I listed two s19 xps

best prices on ebay

and a return policy


and no one wants them


A sure indicator of a troubled retail market.


https://www.ebay.com/str/philipma1957computergearandmore

no one has a better deal than that and they just sit.

Well, it looks like you've already managed to sell what you put on eBay.
I visited your page and it is empty. But I found it very interesting that you have already sold more than 1.4 articles. He really is an ebay expert.

no one purchased either s19 xp

they are the lowest prices one on eBay and have a two week return policy which no one else offers.


not sold

https://www.ebay.com/itm/166744841411?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/156193348622?


and here is another unit from another seller

https://www.ebay.com/itm/145742623717

a 1 board s19k pro at 999 does 120 volts it is modded like my xp mods

no interest in it. seller has a good record  he even sent me an offer for it at 849

asic sales are  very slow right now..

I am selling a lot of gpus

the PNY rtx a4000 sells well
the PNY rtx a5000 sells well

[joker_josue]

I am selling a lot of gpus

the PNY rtx a4000 sells well
the PNY rtx a5000 sells well

What were you doing with those GPUs?
Before it was ETH, and currently what was it?

[philipma1957]

I am selling a lot of gpus

the PNY rtx a4000 sells well
the PNY rtx a5000 sells well

What were you doing with those GPUs?
Before it was ETH, and currently what was it?

kawpow but I lost my cheap power deal and they are not good for me.

I am very lucky that

 the
PNY A5000
PNY A4500
PNY A4000

ALL SELL well for AI developers.

I have made a decent amount of sales of them at decent prices

I have 30 plus cards left to sell

[mikeywith]

The prices on Ebay are still pretty high IMO, S19 xp goes for $2500++, it's about 22w/th , and costs roughly $18 per TH, on the other side, a brand new Whatsminer M60 which is a 19w/th sells for $22/th , so that's just about $4 per TH but it is 13% more efficient and is brand new.

For it to sell at these prices, the difference needs to be worth it, i would say a fair price for a used S19 xp in todays world would be in the $14/th range.

[philipma1957]

The prices on Ebay are still pretty high IMO, S19 xp goes for $2500++, it's about 22w/th , and costs roughly $18 per TH, on the other side, a brand new Whatsminer M60 which is a 19w/th sells for $22/th , so that's just about $4 per TH but it is 13% more efficient and is brand new.

For it to sell at these prices, the difference needs to be worth it, i would say a fair price for a used S19 xp in todays world would be in the $14/th range.

eBay is always a bit higher than private sellers that want
only crypto to pay.

also eBay protects the buyer.
and eBay allows a cc
plus cc can allow six months interest free payments.
also cc gives discounts and rebates.

So 2400 for a 134th s19 xp is pretty decent as all of the above has value.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   842628  (30 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.3599%  (1957 / 2073.98 expected, 116.98 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   86388558925171.02                            
Current Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                            
Next Difficulty:   between 83162523270790 and 83166518562300
Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.6089% and -5.6044%
Previous Retarget:   April 24, 2024 at 10:45 AM  (+1.9859%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 6:48 AM  (in 0d 10h 24m 14s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 6:50 AM  (in 0d 10h 25m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 20h 3m 59s and 14d 20h 5m 1s

some down turn in hash. 88t to 83t