BTC Sentiment Poll for January

[tokeweed]

December closed with another green monthly candle which kinda gave a scare as it was showing some sign that the top is in and that it could start going back down below 40k...  But it didn't!  And if anything the price action it's showing right now says it's just gonna get stronger.

So yeah, just a simple poll to see where your sentiments are for the market overall.  I don't think some people are convinced yet and are still side lined.

Anyway, here's the monthly chart...  And it's a beauty esp if you include January.

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[Oshosondy]

BTC Sentiment Poll for December

People may not be posting because of your mistake. It supposed to be bitcoin sentimental pole for January, 2024. Or is that not what you meant? You need to edit the topic title.

About if the market would be bullish in this January or not, I think this would depend on if United States SEC approves bitcoin ETF ot not. If not approved very soon, the market may not go down much and it may not increase that much. But if bitcoin ETF is approved, expect more price increase even if it might be followed by slightly bear market. But as it is now, nobody knows when SEC will approve bitcoin spot ETF in January, so I do not know exactly if bitcoin price will increase but above all, I am not selling bitcoin in 2024.

[rodskee]

December closed with another green monthly candle which kinda gave a scare as it was showing some sign that the top is in and that it could start going back down below 40k...  But it didn't!  And if anything the price action it's showing right now says it's just gonna get stronger.

So yeah, just a simple poll to see where your sentiments are for the market overall.  I don't think some people are convinced yet and are still side lined.

Anyway, here's the monthly chart...  And it's a beauty esp if you include January.

Breaking 45 thousand dollars when I expect price will fall down like what you said below 40k
but I am wrong(we are wrong lol) because now it is even going up and up so i assume that we will
be hitting 50k this january ? Wow that will be a dream to me .

[Zaguru12]

About if the market would be bullish in this January or not, I think this would depend on if United States SEC approves bitcoin ETF ot not. If not approved very soon, the market may not go down much and it may not increase that much. But if bitcoin ETF is approved, expect more price increase even if it might be followed by slightly bear market. But as it is now, nobody knows when SEC will approve bitcoin spot ETF in January, so I do not know exactly if bitcoin price will increase but above all, I am not selling bitcoin in 2024.

I could recall last month sentiment pool when you asked whether bitcoin could exceed $40k and I said No. Now I wouldn’t be making any definite price predictions but I will just place it more on the ETF hype. I see this month of January price been driven by fundamental analysis rather technical. The driving tool is the hype around the ETF which many people mostly experts expect to be approved within this week, most likely specifically before January 10. If everything goes to plan then I see bitcoin hitting a $50k also because of the BOND bearish trend, many will turn to bitcoin. But if we experience a postponement then a support level of $42k i personally set will be tested.

Nonetheless I will be holding my bag too throughout 2024, now you holding also gives me much confidence because both you and Imthor, your analysis are what I put into consideration sometimes when making decisions, Due to your technical skills.

[EarnOnVictor]

I have never had any doubts over the appreciation of Bitcoin price this season, nor have I doubted this since the beginning of 2023, but was assured of a long-lasting bullish trend between August and October] when a daring bullish trend was converging on the weekly and monthly charts. I even delayed before I revealed that analysis as I was busy before then. The halving expectation helped so much this time, but the help was faster due to the ETF expectations and headlines and it has been wonderful for everyone that had outsmarted what is happening now to have invested big in Bitcoin during the time of pressure when it was about to hit $15,000 in late 2022. Going forward, Bitcoin never had a substantial bearish movement last year judging by where it started the year and it was significant in breaching so many resistance levels on its way up, thanks to FOMO caused by the ETF saga. As it is now, it is all bullish, and pretty soon, Bitcoin might hit its ATH once more, especially if the ETF fillings could be approved by the SEC.

The effect might not be as drastic immediately as people expected, but I am certain that Bitcoin could hit at least $69,000 even before the halving time if the approval sees the light of day. However, I do not expect a strong bullish movement in the very first days, but in a matter of weeks, it would happen. This will be partly because of halving as the pre-halving movements of Bitcoin are caused by FOMO in the market, so we are looking beyond the SEC approval now. Technically, there is nothing stopping Bitcoin from flying higher, the monthly chart is extremely bullish, so I expect the sentiment of the market to prevail in the longer term disposition. This is irrespective of SEC and halving now, the sentiment of the bullish season will always play right and make sure that it effectively serves its time.

[BABY SHOES]

The conclusion depends on the decision of the SEC which will approve in January whether it is possible or not but there are many rumors that it will be approved as previously reported.

It will be a strong sentiment if the SEC takes a quick action, as it is clearly up to them to increase the price of bitcoin or you can say bullish, but if it doesn't happen then a correction is possible but the SEC's influence is big enough to affect the price now and the expected date is getting closer.

The news on X.com is still happening with ETFs and the SEC.

[STT]

I thought 40k area would be the ceiling, it was barely a speedbump.  The pullback to that area was bullish I guess though I think all of this action is quite brief not high volume which is to say i think we can revisit and establish more volume in this area in future.
   For now BTC target is 49.3k which is alot of the weekly top prices for 2021, thats a nice area to revisit we are back to full health surely.

[Lucius]

I personally am not convinced that we are in a bull market because, as some have already mentioned, it is more than obvious that the majority are betting that the ETF will be approved and that is why the price is rising. If the decision is positive, we can expect that on the wave of this news, the price of BTC will rise even more, but it is difficult to speculate about percentages.

If the decision is negative, a correction is possible (and probable), then all expectations will be focused on the halving, the effects of which will probably be visible only in the second half of 2024.

[Ojima-ojo]

About if the market would be bullish in this January or not, I think this would depend on if United States SEC approves bitcoin ETF ot not. If not approved very soon, the market may not go down much and it may not increase that much. But if bitcoin ETF is approved, expect more price increase even if it might be followed by slightly bear market. But as it is now, nobody knows when SEC will approve bitcoin spot ETF in January, so I do not know exactly if bitcoin price will increase but above all, I am not selling bitcoin in 2024.

I could recall last month sentiment pool when you asked whether bitcoin could exceed $40k and I said No. Now I wouldn’t be making any definite price predictions but I will just place it more on the ETF hype. I see this month of January price been driven by fundamental analysis rather technical. The driving tool is the hype around the ETF which many people mostly experts expect to be approved within this week, most likely specifically before January 10. If everything goes to plan then I see bitcoin hitting a $50k also because of the BOND bearish trend, many will turn to bitcoin. But if we experience a postponement then a support level of $42k i personally set will be tested.

Nonetheless I will be holding my bag too throughout 2024, now your holding also gives me much confidence because both you and Imthor, your analysis are what I put into consideration sometimes when making decisions, Due to your technical skills.

Bitcoin ETF approval is indeed one of the cardinal factors that we should look out for to influence the uptrend market direction for Bitcoin, and that is going to be the sole determinant price propeller in the next couple of weeks before the end of January since this Bitcoin poll is targeted with the time frame of January, but the only constraint right now is whether or not the sec approval is going to happen in January or not since the green light already speculated first quarter of 2024 as the possible approval time frames.

For that, we may have just limited tools to speculate what the price of Bitcoin will be in this January and if I must speculate at all, then I will say that we are going to be seeing more Bitcoin price stability and settling between the 43k - 40k, but it won't go below that price because breaking below that 40k price range will push for much more sell-off which could bring us down to 35k before the halving time frame happens.

[Gozie51]

ETF or not if we look at the close of December and also how the candle has formed, it is probably looking to be a sustainable increase for bitcoin and if the etf is negative, the correction may not last a long time down before halving. So I think it is still a win win for bitcoin and bitcoin hodlers with the time remaining for halving.

[GeorgeJohn]

I think what we should be saying is about bitcoin clamping to fifty thousand [50k] and I believe that bitcoin clamping to fifty thousand should something of joy, currently the price of bitcoin is accelerating compared to the initial price of bitcoin last year, their is something I have to understand concerning bitcoin today and tomorrow, bitcoin price is rotational and it doesn't stick on a particular price and I believe that is the reason while I doesn't stick in a particular price of bitcoin when it comes to poll, I know quite that the price can change in value at any point in time.

[Kemarit]

Well if we see that the price is going up because of some news or investors pouring their money already this early in anticipation of bitcoin block halving, then I will say that we might be in a bull run already.

I know it's too early to call, but this set of new investors are kindly different, I mean they are really ready to pounce on the market anytime and pump the price (FOMO), and this could infectious to other investors as well that's why in the first 2 days of January the price reaches $45,000.

[Baofeng]

I personally am not convinced that we are in a bull market because, as some have already mentioned, it is more than obvious that the majority are betting that the ETF will be approved and that is why the price is rising. If the decision is positive, we can expect that on the wave of this news, the price of BTC will rise even more, but it is difficult to speculate about percentages.

If the decision is negative, a correction is possible (and probable), then all expectations will be focused on the halving, the effects of which will probably be visible only in the second half of 2024.

True, but we can't blame those who are betting on a possible approval of spot ETF? I don't think so, and maybe this are the same investors who's speculating that a approval could easily mean 6 digits to all of us.

But if there's no approval, for sure, the market will go down again and then reset, wait for the block halving and then as per history, we might see a bull run. So in any case, it will surely come with or without the Spot ETF approval, in my opinion.

[sheenshane]

I thought last month the price of Bitcoin had a massive correction since it's more in holidays and people will need money during these holiday seasons.  But it is not, Bitcoin price is maintained at the price of $40k which is impossible to decline in January by this month.
So my prediction would be the price will still at the range of $40k plus the additional factor of ETF events might also be the reason Bitcoin will possibly create a massive pump this month.

So I'm not convinced yet if the price will strike and pump with this month.

[LogitechMouse]

If I base my answer on the history of the price movement of Bitcoin a few months before the halving, I will say that we aren't still in a bull market yet.
Seasonality is a big factor in the price increase. I don't know but based on history, Bitcoin's price goes up most of the time in the final 3 months of the year, excluding when we are in a bear market of course.

Aside from seasonality, the sentiment has shifted already. People took the opportunity to buy Bitcoin last year as well in preparation for the bull run that "MIGHT" happen a few months after the halving event happens. I will also add the positive news that's happening in the crypto space including the "POSSIBLE" acceptance of a Spot Bitcoin ETF, I also see the month of January as a bullish month, and at the end of the month, we might see Bitcoin ending up at a higher price than what it was last month.

So I'm not convinced that we are in a bull run already, but I, like always in the past months will remain bullish for the whole 2024.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I think there's always been some misunderstanding of the term "bull market" on this forum, because it seems like every time bitcoin starts to rise for maybe 2-3 months, everyone is declaring a bull market.  When you're talking about stocks, I think the standard definition is a 20% rise over the course of a year, and even if I'm wrong about that, looking at a one month chart doesn't tell you much.

This is the one year chart from Coinmarketcap:



There was a long, flat period right in the middle, but based on where that chart begins I'd have to say that we're in what appears to be a bull market.  The question in my mind is whether it's going to last and if it does, for how long.  I haven't analyzed the data, but I get the impression that bull markets with bitcoin are more akin to bubbles than very long periods of price appreciation.  Crypto in general tends to attract a lot of speculators, and I think that's part of why there have been so many booms and busts.

[Jating]

I thought last month the price of Bitcoin had a massive correction since it's more in holidays and people will need money during these holiday seasons.  But it is not, Bitcoin price is maintained at the price of $40k which is impossible to decline in January by this month.
So my prediction would be the price will still at the range of $40k plus the additional factor of ETF events might also be the reason Bitcoin will possibly create a massive pump this month.

We went to $40k after a spike to $44k, then go to $42k and maintain that price at the end. But at the start of the year suddenly we have a boost pushing to more than $45k and so it's really hard to see where the price will be or if this is just a temporary or short bull run.

So I'm not convinced yet if the price will strike and pump with this month.

I can't blame you with your skepticism and maybe some of us here are not that convinced. And for me the gauge is whether we are in a bull run is after the block halving as this is the catalyst for the official run that we are waiting for this year.

[DaNNy001]

Well I don't believe that we are in the bull market yet, although the market is trying to push up but saying that we are in the bull market is too bogus at this early stage because same movement occured at the early stage of 2023 and as we progress further into the year we saw some decline in price movement although I understand the reason for the poll to be this supportive of the bull market being now and this is maybe due to much said bull to come between 2024-2025 year.

[Lucius]

True, but we can't blame those who are betting on a possible approval of spot ETF? I don't think so, and maybe this are the same investors who's speculating that a approval could easily mean 6 digits to all of us.
~snip~

We can't blame anyone, nor does it make sense at all - everyone has the right to think whatever they want, so if 75% of the people who voted think that we are in a bull market, I have nothing against that. It would be strange if we all thought the same, and it's always good to have different opinions, which means that in the end we won't all be wrong.

As for the six-digit numbers, the question is whether the approval of the ETF can result in more than a 100% price increase, because the approval is one thing and it will certainly "sell" well as news, but the question is whether investors will show interest in trading in that way with BTC. The US is of course a very specific market and everyone is counting on the fact that a huge amount of Bitcoin will be withdrawn from the market to ensure that the funds can trade, but you should also keep in mind that spot BTC ETFs have existed for some time in many countries (Canada), but they have not attracted a lot of interest.

[onecall123]

It's been an amazing start to 2024 as Bitcoin surpassed $45K. The price of Bitcoin is known for its fluctuations, making it challenging to predict short-term movements. While rapid market growth is exciting, it's essential to exercise caution before making any investment decisions. I'm still evaluating whether we're in a bullish market. However, I find comfort in the strategy of buying and holding.