BTC Sentiment Poll for January

[STT]

Weekly doji candle in stark prospect for this week is pause for caution I think.    We have the prospect of the BTC price breaking out but its still sticking to the ceiling like a fly, upside down defying gravity  ready to fly or drop.   I presume upwards but it seems too much of the market is tied to the ETF which makes me personally apprehensive.
  I keep reading people saying the BTC ETF is coming and it has to be positive but that is opposite of what trades can occur.   If we speculate, bid and buy into BTC on this presumption of positive news then you already have your move before the event arrived.   We can and do often over speculate, over anticipate and quite ironic but often true the arrival of whatever good news can mean people swing to sell into the news hence we can certainly go down despite good news.   Also its obvious to say if ETF is denied or most likely of all just delayed ad infinitum as on prior considerations legally that would equate to negative action for this month or more.
  My main objection is I dont care about the ETF!  this protocol isnt an ETF, its outside finance and its not truly the most bullish thing for BTC its more about dollars and other markets, secondary reactions by main markets to BTC is whatever; the long term truth of a bull case for  BTC is about its actual usage, trade exchange hold by more new people thats all that matters.

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[bbc.reporter]

It was Jim Cramer. The market dumped on our faces after he declared that bitcoin cannot be killed and it is here to stay heheheeehehe.

Why would that be a reason which caused the price to drop? Most agree that the reason was in the Matrixport report, which says that the ETF will probably not be accepted this month, which consequently caused liquidation about "$500 million worth of positions across derivatives exchanges."

I would also single out the news that Saylor announced that he was selling part of his company's shares, which some may have interpreted as negative news.

Also, it is very headshaking that there are people in the forum who remain to think that it is not a bull market after bitcoin has done a 3x since November 2022. When will they be bullish?

The fact that the price is x3 times higher than the time you mention is for me personally just a recovery after the scandals with Do Kwon and Bankman, and I wouldn't call it a bull market at all. Realistically, the price of BTC in this period should be around $35k, and everything else is pumped up due to speculation about spot ETFs - and as soon as bad news appears about it, everything starts to collapse.

Realistically, the real bull run has so far always happened after the halving and it will probably be the same now - except that now we have an ETF in the game, although, as always, the decision will be uncertain until the very end.

You are not familiar with the meme called Inverse Cramer? I have always been joking about it in the forum hehe. Bitcoin pumps when Jim Cramer is negative and it dumps when Jim Cramer is positive heehhehee.

Also, I disagree that selling Microstrategy shares to buy more bitcoin is to be considered bearish. This is certainly very bullish.

In any case, if this is not yet a bull market then when will the bull market begin for you? Once the price pumps to a new all time high?

[dezoel]

I thought 40k area would be the ceiling, it was barely a speedbump.  The pullback to that area was bullish I guess though I think all of this action is quite brief not high volume which is to say i think we can revisit and establish more volume in this area in future.
   For now BTC target is 49.3k which is alot of the weekly top prices for 2021, thats a nice area to revisit we are back to full health surely.

We are currently at $45k. It's a good head start for the year. Usually when things go like this, the rest are also going to go smoothly (price will rise easily). So, I think $40k is not the ceiling but in can be the floor. We can revisit this area with more volume, few moments later after a dump.

But, usually it needs some kind of encouragement like a positive news. That should cause the people to FOMO. I don't think it's possible to tell if what price BTC is targeting but we can only assume about it. Also, it is our target, not bitcoin's. If you are revisiting/reminiscing the year of 2021, there was a bull run that occurred during that time, and the price is again higher than $49k.

[Gozie51]

$43k - $48k - is already a satisfying price for Bitcoin to see this January.

This is a good range for bitcoin price this month. Although it started a little above 43k this but because of the festive season has slightly shifted to 43k because of the dump looking like a resistance to contend with before the end of the month. I expect some spike volatility before the month goes away with the bitcoin ETF making the news around the market.

[_BlackStar]

-snip-

This is a good range for bitcoin price this month. Although it started a little above 43k this but because of the festive season has slightly shifted to 43k because of the dump looking like a resistance to contend with before the end of the month. I expect some spike volatility before the month goes away with the bitcoin ETF making the news around the market.

Many users are looking forward to that big news from the SEC this January - the impact will be felt no matter what the decision. It's just that - the market became very bullish when the SEC approved a bitcoin ETF, while the market will catch fire for a while due to trader panic and the exit of some big whales.

Just for me - positive sentiment is expected, while it is always possible to get something opposite to what is expected. As a long-term investor - I am ready for all market consequences, other people should be too. What must be improved now is - patience and optimism for a better future.

[Fatunad]

-snip-

This is a good range for bitcoin price this month. Although it started a little above 43k this but because of the festive season has slightly shifted to 43k because of the dump looking like a resistance to contend with before the end of the month. I expect some spike volatility before the month goes away with the bitcoin ETF making the news around the market.

Many users are looking forward to that big news from the SEC this January - the impact will be felt no matter what the decision. It's just that - the market became very bullish when the SEC approved a bitcoin ETF, while the market will catch fire for a while due to trader panic and the exit of some big whales.

Just for me - positive sentiment is expected, while it is always possible to get something opposite to what is expected. As a long-term investor - I am ready for all market consequences, other people should be too. What must be improved now is - patience and optimism for a better future.

Now that SEC or institutions have already that involvement into this market then its true that no matter what their decisions would be then it would really be bringing out such impact on which same as you said that
peoples eyes are now focusing or really that on spotting about this decisions or to those proposals that have been submitted whether those things would be that rejected or would be approved
on which it would really be that impossible that it wont really be able to result out on such potential of dumping or prices or would really be having that significant effect.
Every year there's no way that we could really be able to know on what would happen when it comes to price movements and conditions.

Every year we do know that recognition and adoption rate is really that something different specially now that government and big institutions are now getting involved.
Yes, the inflow and outflow becomes much more bigger but the cons is that it is really that gradually becoming that centralized when it comes into that aspect.
This is why it would be always better that we should really that expect that unexpected.

[bitgolden]

I thought 40k area would be the ceiling, it was barely a speedbump.  The pullback to that area was bullish I guess though I think all of this action is quite brief not high volume which is to say i think we can revisit and establish more volume in this area in future.
   For now BTC target is 49.3k which is alot of the weekly top prices for 2021, thats a nice area to revisit we are back to full health surely.

We are currently at $45k. It's a good head start for the year. Usually when things go like this, the rest are also going to go smoothly (price will rise easily). So, I think $40k is not the ceiling but in can be the floor. We can revisit this area with more volume, few moments later after a dump.

But, usually it needs some kind of encouragement like a positive news. That should cause the people to FOMO. I don't think it's possible to tell if what price BTC is targeting but we can only assume about it. Also, it is our target, not bitcoin's. If you are revisiting/reminiscing the year of 2021, there was a bull run that occurred during that time, and the price is again higher than $49k.

The fear was that for a moment there we had a period when it looked like we are not going to actually go up, which made a lot of people fear that the year would start with a big drop and that is why we ended up with a lot of trouble, but that doesn't really mean that we are going to end up with anything like that anymore. We have seen the rise which means that it is not going to be a terrible year, we are going to end up with a good year for sure.

We just need to end up with a situation where people can see that halving is a great indicator that the price would go up. If enough people believe that and trust the process, then we are going to end up with a win in over course of a long term, and should be feeling fine about it.

[GeorgeJohn]

It's been an amazing start to 2024 as Bitcoin surpassed $45K. The price of Bitcoin is known for its fluctuations, making it challenging to predict short-term movements. While rapid market growth is exciting, it's essential to exercise caution before making any investment decisions. I'm still evaluating whether we're in a bullish market. However, I find comfort in the strategy of buying and holding.

Actually its right time for we to accumulate our bitcoin right now because nobody knows what the price of bitcoin can yield tomorrow and I believe that bitcoin price when someone is waiting for it to increase above expectations or directly to your expectations before you can purchase and hold, bitcoin price will be fluctuating in price, I think that the best way we can invest in bitcoin and make profit of bullrun is to invest without any expectations of increment because when you have increment of bitcoin price in mind I think that you will not summon the courage to invest in bitcoin.

[Wind_FURY]

I personally am not convinced that we are in a bull market because, as some have already mentioned, it is more than obvious that the majority are betting that the ETF will be approved and that is why the price is rising. If the decision is positive, we can expect that on the wave of this news, the price of BTC will rise even more, but it is difficult to speculate about percentages.

If the decision is negative, a correction is possible (and probable), then all expectations will be focused on the halving, the effects of which will probably be visible only in the second half of 2024.

I'm personally not very convinced too. Although it's technically a bull market, I believe there's going to be one last price crash caused by a systemic event that will pull major economies down into a recession and make stocks, real-estate, and crypto crash back down to pre-surge levels.

The Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" will be the cause of surging unemployment this year. They simply can't expect high maintained interest rates to have no negative impact in the labor market.

[Ndabagi01]

December closed with another green monthly candle which kinda gave a scare as it was showing some sign that the top is in and that it could start going back down below 40k...  But it didn't!  And if anything the price action it's showing right now says it's just gonna get stronger.

So yeah, just a simple poll to see where your sentiments are for the market overall.  I don't think some people are convinced yet and are still side lined.

I am convinced that this first few months of the year will end on a bullish note, and it will have nothing to do with the approval of the bitcoin ETF. It is self-evident that the approval of the spot bitcoin ETF will boost the market, while its rejection will cause the price of bitcoin to fall. My predictions are based on the fact that the market ended last year on a bullish note, and the new year has continued in the same a similar way.  If the bitcoin ETF is rejected today, the market will experience a negative trend, but it will quickly recover and resume its bullish trend. This month could end on a negative trend depending on when the good or bad news of bitcoin ETF will hit the market. But will recover back in some week time.

[dragonvslinux]

At the start of the month I would have said hell yeh, but now I've voted no based on how the week is currently panning out. Price has finally reached the 0.618 fib retracement target of $48.5K, similar to the uptrends of 2016 and 2019, and now I fear there is a long-way down to reality around $30K. Not only is this week currently looking like a doji reversal candle, the worst we've seen since October 2021, but also it's the highest selling week in over 10 months, and it's still only Friday. To me the only hope is a strong rebound to around $46K to $47K over the weekend for the week to end more neutrally.



The potential for a "buy the rumour sell the news" ETF launch event was never going to end well in my opinion. Now there are fresh ETFs looking bearish, and if Wall St do what they usually do, it'll be to wait for a 50% correction prior to dipping their toes in the water. The upside is that the halving is only 4 months away, so any correction or capitulation should be short-lived at least.

[jossiel]

We see some drop today and that can be related to the purchase of BlackRock of around 2.2k+ Bitcoins.

If the support is likely to stay to $40k for the entire month, I'm already okay on where it is heading. As long as that price remains as the support, I wouldn't ask for more.

But definitely, any amount is still possible as it can go lower than what we're thinking. I don't mind how high it can go for this mind but holding on to its support.

[alankasman]

There was a deep 24-hour decline in the second week of January after the ETF was approved. That is the current market graph that can be seen.
For those who ask why there is a decline when good news such as ETF approval occurs with various assumptions circulating.
If you look at the movement of the tradingview candle chart, the market is still in good condition even though the market reaction is different when facing things that are considered good such as ETFs.

In my opinion, this January will still be beautiful when looking at the Bitcoin price chart. The long term is more beautiful.
Who knows. But I believe this is the way of the bull market.

[kentrolla]

Market has been in green for months now and I think it's a gradual price increase and having witnessed more than one bull run hence I can say this is not a bull run because the prices will increase so rapidly during the bull run. I think the bull run will start the following year post halving somewhere in 2025. But we can utilize this rally to gain profit and possible correction if any to accumulate more.

[naikturun]

I think currently bitcoin is still in the rising zone even though the bad news is still there and affecting the price of bitcoin, the highest price of bitcoin almost reached 50k$ for this month, but it was broken again and fell to 41k$ I think this month is still a bull for bitcoin, but for February and March I'm still not sure.

[dragonvslinux]

 I keep reading people saying the BTC ETF is coming and it has to be positive but that is opposite of what trades can occur.   If we speculate, bid and buy into BTC on this presumption of positive news then you already have your move before the event arrived.   We can and do often over speculate, over anticipate and quite ironic but often true the arrival of whatever good news can mean people swing to sell into the news hence we can certainly go down despite good news.   Also its obvious to say if ETF is denied or most likely of all just delayed ad infinitum as on prior considerations legally that would equate to negative action for this month or more.

Didn't see your post before, but it's a great point and analysis prior to the ETF launches.

I think this is the main point people have missed. Much of the rally from $25K to $48K, or at least from $30K, was based on anticipation of ETF launches. Now that the ETFs have launched, and the price hasn't immediately pumped to the upside as many were expecting, price should realistically return to it's "pre-ETF hype" level of around $25K to $30K. The fact the top cam within 30 minutes of launch is very telling.

 My main objection is I dont care about the ETF!  this protocol isnt an ETF, its outside finance and its not truly the most bullish thing for BTC its more about dollars and other markets, secondary reactions by main markets to BTC is whatever; the long term truth of a bull case for  BTC is about its actual usage, trade exchange hold by more new people thats all that matters.

For me, ETF aside, I'll focus on the price action, with $48.5K always being a target throughout 2023 for what I consider to be a macro dead cat bounce, similar to that of 2019. That may seem overly pessimistic, but just like in 2019, people started to think we would see ATHs very soon and the like. I get that a lot of this current speculation/hype was based on ETFs, but even without them, at around $50K this is what we'd be hearing regardless imo, ignoring the need for price to consolidate considerable gains in recent months. It's about time to learn that after price pumps 60% from $30K to $49K within 3 months, it can crash just as hard if not quicker, or at minimum consolidate for many months more. Like the initial move from $15.5K to $30K in 2023, price then consolidated between $25K and $30K for 6 months before moving higher.

[Popkon6]

December closed with another green monthly candle which kinda gave a scare as it was showing some sign that the top is in and that it could start going back down below 40k...  But it didn't!  And if anything the price action it's showing right now says it's just gonna get stronger.

So yeah, just a simple poll to see where your sentiments are for the market overall.  I don't think some people are convinced yet and are still side lined.

Anyway, here's the monthly chart...  And it's a beauty esp if you include January.

Bitcoin finished high in December and the green candles were huge.  Bitcoin price has seen an upward trend, Bitcoin price has completed its high since January. In 2024, the highest Bitcoin price reached was $48,900, and the biggest factor behind Bitcoin's growth was Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin price hit record highs because of ETF approval.

[JayTrain]

I think December was an anxious month, there were ups and downs. But in general, December turned out to be more stable than January. We all know the positive news with the Bitcoin ETF, everyone expected a huge surge in the market, but for some reason the market growth lasted one or two days. I hope this is a temporary phenomenon and January is ready for something more, and the dynamics and sentiment in the market will be better. In general, I think it’s worth the wait and we’ll see more new ATHs on the market.

[Johnyz]

I think December was an anxious month, there were ups and downs. But in general, December turned out to be more stable than January. We all know the positive news with the Bitcoin ETF, everyone expected a huge surge in the market, but for some reason the market growth lasted one or two days. I hope this is a temporary phenomenon and January is ready for something more, and the dynamics and sentiment in the market will be better. In general, I think it’s worth the wait and we’ll see more new ATHs on the market.

This is just a temporary trend where many sells based on the news and once they are done, the market will recover eventually. This is actually expected once the news came out since many will take advantage of the FOMO. Now, we are in a consolidation period where Bitcoin needs to survive above the support level so we can continue this bullish trend, I’m still positive for this first quarter and I believe Bitcoin will recover stronger.

[dansus021]

Monthly candle I rarely watch people using this timeframe

But I vote No ETF already approved but the market seems not moved at all. But as you can see on your chart bitcoin already put 3 candlesticks with big green don't you think there will be a correction after this?
In Altcoin cycle is january is the best time to buy more alt