BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger jump than most people expect

[1miau]

Discussions around Bitcoin’s ETF approval have been intensified for a long time now and most likely, we will get positive news about it in early January any day now. Yaay.  
In case of a positive outcome, a Bitcoin ETF approval will possibly result in a much bigger spike than many people are expecting, in my opinion.
Right now, mostly Bitcoin holders or financial wallstreet experts are aware of what’s coming. Many regular investment people still don’t really know about / have heard much of an upcoming Bitcoin EFT but will know and read more about it, once news are out and advertising really starts.
BlackRock and Co. are really big players and advertising Bitcoin, a truly scarce asset, might result in an unbelievably big Bitcoin price spike (sorry for too much FOMO, I could not resist  ).

Compared to what might come, we are still in relatively calm waters.

Of course, a rejection could result in a very big dump due to insurmountable disappointment as well.
As always: no investement advice because trading is very risky.

Interesting and volatile days ahead!  

[nelson4lov]

ETF approved: BTC goes to the outer stratosphere.
ETF denied: Short-term drop in price but long term? The macro is ultra bullish.

My greed is almost at an ath and it's just unfortunate that I don't have as much bitcoin as I'd like if this ETF is approved because it most likely would be. This is the most optimistic I've been of all ETF applications in recent years. I have my fingers crossed and I'm betting big on it.

[pawel7777]

The SEC's deadline to decide is 10th of Jan (for multiple ETFs).

I don't think the approval itself would cause any major jump in the price, it's largely already priced in at this point as everyone is already aware of what's coming. If anything, the demand (not just the fact they got approved) could have a fairly big impact on the price, but we're talking longer-term here. It's not like a bunch of wales is sitting on the sidelines and waiting for SEC. There are plenty of other ways investors could get exposure to BTC.

Short-term speaking, we could see some modest rise after the hopefully positive announcement and then we could see a drop as a lot of investors will be "selling the news".

[dothebeats]

There's a high chance that it gets approved. Most of what were lacking on previous ETFs are already fulfilled by recent applications, and so the SEC are in no position to deny that unless they want to change their rulings or dig deeper into technicalities just to reject the ETF. A lot of people and traders are banking into this, and I think we're in the clear in terms of overall market sentiment. I, however would not be confident that everything goes well. There has to be some trade-offs with the approval, or the other way around.

[blockman]

Got goosebumps when you've said that it can be out of our expected jump. I was just thinking of little bump for Bitcoin price that was failed to meet on the last bull run and yes, that's $100k. So it's interesting on how these giants can do to make the demand higher. They're not just simple players that we're having and if approved, this is no longer all about speculative market because they're in as well. I think that there will be that much change on the market when the ETF is approved and they've got a green signal from the SEC.

Most of what were lacking on previous ETFs are already fulfilled by recent applications

I agree. Most of them if given the approval, should give it credits to the past ones that have been rejected like with VanEck and SolidX.

[TimeTeller]

Got goosebumps when you've said that it can be out of our expected jump. I was just thinking of little bump for Bitcoin price that was failed to meet on the last bull run and yes, that's $100k. So it's interesting on how these giants can do to make the demand higher. They're not just simple players that we're having and if approved, this is no longer all about speculative market because they're in as well. I think that there will be that much change on the market when the ETF is approved and they've got a green signal from the SEC.

Most of what were lacking on previous ETFs are already fulfilled by recent applications

I agree. Most of them if given the approval, should give it credits to the past ones that have been rejected like with VanEck and SolidX.

I hope people are not expecting too much about this upcoming event, if in case this one goes thru.
Because being conservative won't give you too much trouble if your target price won't actually be realized.
But do remember, with or without ETF, the adoption is ongoing and further growing in numbers.
So should not be very reliant on this event whether you will invest on this market or not.

[franky1]

grayscale already has over 600,000btc so it not looking to take on any 'authorised participants' with their newly bought coins. so if grayscale gets approved they wont cause a massive buy-up

blackrock only has a couple hundred coin ($10m seed) and has announced jane street and JPmorgan as authorised participants so expect JP and JS to buy up some coin to make baskets each to add more shares to blackrocks offering

the other ETF applicants also lack seed funding to instantly offer shares so if they get accepted expect some bitcoin purchasing to then occur to buy baskets of coin

..
however if SEC denies grayscale we may see grayscale buy back lots of private shares and then use coin to become agents(authorised participants) of other ETF, again not affecting the market and infact reducing the impact of other etf approvals if the other ETF use grayscale as a authorised participant to not need new participants buying baskets of coins

i know ark21 is currently holding some coin within grayscale so would vote those shares back to coin and take them to ark21
(ark21 has ~$205m of gbtc shares)

[Darker45]

The discussions now are mostly focused on spot Bitcoin ETF in particular, and one that is based in the US as other countries, even neighboring Canada, have already approved spot Bitcoin ETFs years ago.

As the judgement day is near, the market has already positively reacted. It seems the verdict is expected to be positive. Bitcoin has already touched $45,000. Depending on the SEC's decision, it could even hit $50,000 within the month.

However, I don't believe a "very bid dump" will happen with a rejection. The big bulk of investor's money are probably waiting for the green light. If the signal won't come, the money won't flow into the market. That's probably the biggest effect.

[franky1]

The discussions now are mostly focused on spot Bitcoin ETF in particular, and one that is based in the US as other countries, even neighboring Canada, have already approved spot Bitcoin ETFs years ago.

when people look at canada, they instantly ask 'WTF! canada actually has their own stock market?!?'
this is because no one internationally uses/cares about canada's market.
international trade usually sticks to:
    New York Stock Exchange.
    NASDAQ.
    Tokyo Stock Exchange.
    Shanghai Stock Exchange.
    Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
    London Stock Exchange.
    Euronext.
    Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

so with a few bitcoin ETF being added to NYSE and NASDAQ.. those ETF are going to perform best, and cause more effects
(note there are some that are using the less known CBOE)

[Dickiy]

Facing the most defining moment of the year with a powerful force that will change the fate of the way society views Bitcoin. I would hardly believe it if an ETF was rejected and then the market experienced a drastic decline because it did not meet expectations. But on the other hand, because this is a Halving Year, you can still sigh a little. Imagine if that didn't happen in the Halving year, maybe big losses would befall us. The expectation of ETF approval is 90% based on the track record since the initial proposal submission until now. However, there is no harm in anticipating by paying attention to January 10, our eyes will be focused on the SEC official decision.

So this month we are all betting big?

[GreatArkansas]

(....)
However, I don't believe a "very bid dump" will happen with a rejection. The big bulk of investor's money are probably waiting for the green light. If the signal won't come, the money won't flow into the market. That's probably the biggest effect.

Yes, me too because we already experienced this before when some ETF filings and we experienced a dump also but as I recall we managed to recover after the dump. So the same will happen but it will be lighter as people already experienced it before and for sure they already know how to react.

[dzungmobile]

We don't know when SEC will announce Bitcoin Spot ETF result but sometimes in this week, we will know about it.

I don't know they will approve or refuse those applications but the massive expectation is SEC will approve those applications.

I only think that even if SEC refuse those aplications, we will still have a bull year for Bitcoin. It will not like a death call from SEC for Bitcoin if they refuse applications.

Because of big impacts if SEC approve Bitcoin Spot ETFs, if you don't want to lose your bitcoin, don't sell and wait for corrections, just hold bitcoin you have, wait for halving and bull run. Bitcoin Spot ETF should be considered as one of recipes for your investment adventure.

[thecodebear]

For sure. If there is an approval this month (I'm not expecting approval but seemingly EVERYONE else is) price will likely immediately jump to over $50k.

Then sellers would come in taking profit and probably bring it back to like $48k or something but this would be a temporary dip. Then once the ETFs start operating (or once the firms running the ETFs start buying up Bitcoin leading up to their ETFs starting) that'll be billions of dollars of bitcoin being bought up so we'd like see another fairly quick $5k gain or so in price.

If there is an ETF approval in a week, we could see the price go from the current $45k to $55k over the course of a month. And with the halving coming up soon and if that builds ETF momentum as well we could see Bitcoin seeking out the ATH as early as late Spring.


If the ETFs are all delayed/rejected, as is very possible, Bitcoin would dump under $40k for at least a few days but that would just be a buying opportunity and within a week or two it'd likely be back to the $42k/$43k range its gotten comfortable in the past month.

[arhipova]

Discussions around Bitcoin’s ETF approval have been intensified for a long time now and most likely, we will get positive news about it in early January any day now. Yaay.  
In case of a positive outcome, a Bitcoin ETF approval will possibly result in a much bigger spike than many people are expecting, in my opinion.
Right now, mostly Bitcoin holders or financial wallstreet experts are aware of what’s coming. Many regular investment people still don’t really know about / have heard much of an upcoming Bitcoin EFT but will know and read more about it, once news are out and advertising really starts.
BlackRock and Co. are really big players and advertising Bitcoin, a truly scarce asset, might result in an unbelievably big Bitcoin price spike (sorry for too much FOMO, I could not resist  ).

Compared to what might come, we are still in relatively calm waters.

Of course, a rejection could result in a very big dump due to insurmountable disappointment as well.
As always: no investement advice because trading is very risky.

Interesting and volatile days ahead!  

Even after all this, you need to stay calm and keep buying bitcoin regular as much as possible as per your capacity.

Like when crypto soars because of the news and you start getting influenced by it, you will sell with just some profit. But if you are remaining invested for say 10 years, you will see life changing returns. That is the beauty of bitcoin and crypto investment. The longer you wait, the bigger is the magic that happens.

[pinggoki]

Man, I just hope that this big price pump we're talking about is going to happen before the SEC in my country bans Binance so I can quickly evacuate my investments into a safe wallet or maybe to an another exchange that's not yet on the radar of SEC. I'm sure my target price is likely to happen so here's to hoping that I get to see that and take profit before the drastic change in how many of us here in the country uses Binance.

[Die_empty]

This is the most optimistic I've been of all ETF applications in recent years. I have my fingers crossed and I'm betting big on it.

There is a very high tendency that the ETF applications will be approved. My assumption is based on the fact that the SEC has had several meetings with these applicants and they have been mandated to review the application and make some adjustments such as the inclusion of Cash redemption mechanisms. The refusal of the SEC to appeal the court judgement that concluded that the organisation was wrong to reject Grayscale’s proposed bitcoin ETF, is also a positive indicator that it might be approved. Almost every Bitcoiner I have been privileged to interact with are optimistic that the SEC will not refuse approval.

Man, I just hope that this big price pump we're talking about is going to happen before the SEC in my country bans Binance so I can quickly evacuate my investments into a safe wallet or maybe to an another exchange that's not yet on the radar of SEC. I'm sure my target price is likely to happen so here's to hoping that I get to see that and take profit before the drastic change in how many of us here in the country uses Binance.

Is it not better to move your funds out of Binance to a safe wallet immediately? I don't think you should take the risk of keeping your funds in a centralised wallet and hoping that it doesn't face any regulatory problems. You cannot predict when the government might come for them, so the best option is to move the funds to a non-custodian wallet and you can also sell it through P2P or a decentralised exchange. 

[adaseb]

Ark doesn’t have those $200M worth of GBTC shares. They sold them all last week and bought $100M worth of Bito. No idea why. Maybe some conflict of interest since they are both launching an etf.

Jan 10 th is the assumed date but it’s only to approve all. But the final deadlines are far into. 2024. If it doesn’t get approved by mid of late Jan then we might see some sell off due to a period of etf delays for months like in the past.

[franky1]

Ark doesn’t have those $200M worth of GBTC shares. They sold them all last week and bought $100M worth of Bito. No idea why. Maybe some conflict of interest since they are both launching an etf.

Jan 10 th is the assumed date but it’s only to approve all. But the final deadlines are far into. 2024. If it doesn’t get approved by mid of late Jan then we might see some sell off due to a period of etf delays for months like in the past.

ok i admit i didnt do much research in the christmas/new year period to stay uptodate, good catch

looks like ARK21 wants to do some futures contracts to play the market this week
she also sold shares in AMD, Coinbase, Cloudflare, Shopify and dozen others to consolidate alot of funding which i believe she is just temperarily housing in futures etf to profit from short term to then re-consolidate again if she gets approval for spot etf

[kryptqnick]

The SEC has been silent for months, and can't they just keep postponing their decisions, one way or another, indefinitely? Are they required to give a definitive answer to BlackRock by a certain date, or can they just keep claiming that some additional documents are needed from time to time, and keep the policies they way they are, neither approving not rejecting ETFs? I agree that an approval would be a big win, with a solid price spike to be expected. As for a rejection, I hope that would only drive the price down for a couple of months before recovery to the pre-rejection level. The current situation of anticipation seems to work just fine, both for the SEC and for Bitcoin users.

[pakhitheboss]

Interesting and volatile days ahead!  

I do not know whether Bitcoin ETF would be approved by the SEC. One thing is certain we would see as you mentioned interesting and volatile year. It is not only ETF but we will be seeing the next halving probably in the month of March or April this year. If a single ETF gets approved before halving then this would be the first year in the history of halving that we would notice a Bitcoin bull run. There are a few big economies that will be having their election to choose their next government. We would then see a stream of regulations getting approved in different countries. Overall an interesting year awaits all of us.