BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger jump than most people expect

[Jegileman]

What is clear and I understand about the bitcoin ETF is that;

If bitcoin ETF gets approved - Bitcoin will be bullish as a result of the approval by SEC but not sure how long it will stay like that. Maybe we going to experience a double bullish trend, one from the approval and the second from the bull run market expected to take place.

If bitcoin ETF gets rejected- Bitcoin will eventually experience a decline but will get back to its bullish form after a short term because the market is currently on a bullish trajectory.

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[1miau]

What is clear and I understand about the bitcoin ETF is that;

If bitcoin ETF gets approved - Bitcoin will be bullish as a result of the approval by SEC but not sure how long it will stay like that. Maybe we going to experience a double bullish trend, one from the approval and the second from the bull run market expected to take place.

An ETF would pave the way for much more money to come into Bitcoin, so I expect a steady flow of money into Bitcoin after ETF approval. Some investors will maybe wait a bit until investing money in Bitcoin ETF's but long-term more people will join.
And maybe it'll help Bitcoin to become less volatile.

If bitcoin ETF gets rejected- Bitcoin will eventually experience a decline but will get back to its bullish form after a short term because the market is currently on a bullish trajectory.

Even if it's delayed (and a delay is unlikely), an ETF will be approved sooner or later. Possibly BlackRock and Co. have already purchased some nice BTC before the recent price increase. 

[bbc.reporter]

If bitcoin ETF gets rejected- Bitcoin will eventually experience a decline but will get back to its bullish form after a short term because the market is currently on a bullish trajectory.

Even if it's delayed (and a delay is unlikely)

There might be another delay. The SEC has issued additional comments on pending applicants' for S-1s and according to Perianne Boring, this might be a delay signal.

Also, if there is a delay, January 10 will be the last of Ark Invest's schedule for application. If it is not approved by uncle Gary, this will be the first rejection from all of the applications. This might cause the market much volatility this month hehehe.



In an unexpected turn of events, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued additional comments on pending applicants’ form S-1s as part of the spot Bitcoin ETF applications. This came amid high hopes of an approval announcement anytime before the January 10, 2024 deadline.

According to Perianne Boring, the President and founder of the Chamber of Digital Commerce, the latest development is a delay signal from the agency.

Source https://coingape.com/us-sec-issues-comments-on-bitcoin-etf-form-s-1s-approval-to-get-delayed/

[philipma1957]

The SEC's deadline to decide is 10th of Jan (for multiple ETFs).

I don't think the approval itself would cause any major jump in the price, it's largely already priced in at this point as everyone is already aware of what's coming. If anything, the demand (not just the fact they got approved) could have a fairly big impact on the price, but we're talking longer-term here. It's not like a bunch of wales is sitting on the sidelines and waiting for SEC. There are plenty of other ways investors could get exposure to BTC.

Short-term speaking, we could see some modest rise after the hopefully positive announcement and then we could see a drop as a lot of investors will be "selling the news".

It is easy to say it's priced in.  But who really knows if it is.

If some do know it would be cool for them to let me know

[KingsDen]

Re: BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger jump than most people expect

Before now, I had given little/no attention to the ETF approval. I had classified it as a normal Bitcoin activities that were projected to move the market which failed finally. But, seeing the pre ETF approval impact in the market is making me believe that the jump will be massive more than anyone could predict. We could possibly see the highest jump in Bitcoin price, such that in the future such jump might not be possible.

And maybe it'll help Bitcoin to become less volatile.

What I and many other have thought, but in practice, massive adoption might not lead to less volatility in as much as bitcoin will become more scarce.

[buwaytress]

Well, it would definitely surprise me if it caused the next rally. I'm one of those boring cycle fellows, I hold certain that the next upward en route to ATH happens about a year after halving. That's when people suddenly wake up and misunderstanding economics of supply, but also when supply side push the same scarcity sell.

But halving is now in everyone's face, so it's not news anymore (so pricing in began even last year. So I'm open to different scenarios, even if I personally think the ETF theory of institutional force as been disproven several times. I still think retail power is underestimated, though, and ETF might actually bleed on to retail interest.

Either way's a win. A non-approval = crash = more stacking time.

P.S. 1miau, don't know how I missed this post, I usually skim over this section

[Abiky]

An ETF would pave the way for much more money to come into Bitcoin, so I expect a steady flow of money into Bitcoin after ETF approval. Some investors will maybe wait a bit until investing money in Bitcoin ETF's but long-term more people will join.
And maybe it'll help Bitcoin to become less volatile.

Of course. A spot Bitcoin ETF would open the doors for massive adoption of the cryptocurrency. It's likely demand (and price) will rise to levels not seen before. Be aware though, this will concentrate the supply of BTC into the hands of a few players. Which translates into more centralization in the long run.

With Blackrock getting in the game, the US government will finally have "control" over Bitcoin (although not directly). Wasn't the cryotocurrency meant to be a challenger of banks and governments alike? This move will make banks win in the long run. I know we all want Bitcoin to increase in price, but this is not the way to go. Hopefully, the cryptocurrency will remain decentralized and censorship-resistant for the forseeable future. Who knows what's next in store for BTC? 

[1miau]

Tomorrow will be the day of the days. 
I'm expecting an approval but anything can happen...

There might be another delay. The SEC has issued additional comments on pending applicants' for S-1s and according to Perianne Boring, this might be a delay signal.

Let's don't hope so. 
There have been so many rumours from "inevitably approved" to "ETF will be straight denied".

Looks like at least someome will be right here. 

Of course, I'm not doing any leveraged trading but 50k USD+ would be nice tomorrow. 

Either way's a win. A non-approval = crash = more stacking time.

+1
I wouldn't say no to accumulate a few more sats for cheap. 
Even if rejected, it might be not later than March to get approved. And Halving + ETF approval might be a bullish result as well.

P.S. 1miau, don't know how I missed this post, I usually skim over this section

Probably due to the mixer ban and people commenting more in Gambling / Gabling discussion, it's really quiet here in Bitcoin discussion, at least compared to as it's usually. 

[Lucius]

Regardless of whether the spot ETF will be approved today, it should be kept in mind that as far as I know, even if the ETF is approved, the SEC still has some mechanism by which it can delay the actual start of trading even for several months. If that were to happen, the uncertain period would continue, and it is possible that some companies could file a lawsuit against the SEC if it continues to prevent them from getting the whole thing going.

Some of the predictions I have heard are that a negative decision could cause a correction of 20% and even more up to $30k. Soon we will find out how many investors actually bet on today and how much money will come or go depending on the decision. Of course, assuming that Gary and the team manage to do what is needed, given that they have had some technical problems since yesterday

[Abiky]

Regardless of whether the spot ETF will be approved today, it should be kept in mind that as far as I know, even if the ETF is approved, the SEC still has some mechanism by which it can delay the actual start of trading even for several months. If that were to happen, the uncertain period would continue, and it is possible that some companies could file a lawsuit against the SEC if it continues to prevent them from getting the whole thing going.

Some of the predictions I have heard are that a negative decision could cause a correction of 20% and even more up to $30k. Soon we will find out how many investors actually bet on today and how much money will come or go depending on the decision. Of course, assuming that Gary and the team manage to do what is needed, given that they have had some technical problems since yesterday

The SEC has been quite silent after its "X" account was hacked yesterday. I guess it wants to keep everyone in suspense. With chairman Gary Gensler in-charge, we should expect the worse. Probably the spot ETFs will be delayed again, causing a huge correction in crypto market prices (especially Bitcoin). I think the excitement happened too soon, as BTC hasn't even experienced the block reward halving yet. Besides, the main Blockchain network is facing scaling issues. How can we expect to open the doors for Wall Street if fees remain high for prolonged periods of time?

If the SEC approves the ETFs, expect further congestion on the BTC network. Hopefully, developers would come up with a solution to tackle all of Bitcoin's problems. With BTC on the brink of mass adoption, it should only be a matter of time before it displaces Gold as the world's #1 store of value. Just keep buying and holding to see good results in the long run.

[OgNasty]

I think people are expecting a decision to be announced in about 4 hours. We’ll see. There are a lot of signs that approval is imminent so you could make the argument that the market already has it priced in. I’m not sold on it being an immediate positive for the price, but I think it’ll have a lasting bullish effect for a long time. 

[rhomelmabini]

I think people are expecting a decision to be announced in about 4 hours. We’ll see. There are a lot of signs that approval is imminent so you could make the argument that the market already has it priced in. I’m not sold on it being an immediate positive for the price, but I think it’ll have a lasting bullish effect for a long time.  

Hoping this isn't an intern negligence once again but I think ETF is already live on Fidelity Investment and here's the tweet about it: https://x.com/martypartymusic/status/1745129391737438367?t=EAbNKML38csXkBGQjqDHRw&s=09. Same here maybe we can see a potential upside again maybe $50k and then that's it, then alts would soar and ETF speculation will pass to ETH and other huge alts, just saying.

edit: not live but as you can say it's listed. FBTC is listed as well on WeBull.

[electronicash]

I think people are expecting a decision to be announced in about 4 hours. We’ll see. There are a lot of signs that approval is imminent so you could make the argument that the market already has it priced in. I’m not sold on it being an immediate positive for the price, but I think it’ll have a lasting bullish effect for a long time. 

but the fud yesterday is over and there was a dump already. gensler rejects this today is beyond cruelty he needs to be prosecuted for making those tweets, i don't think people really believe in that hack.

with just that tweet the price shoots to $48k, it should go beyond that price when it's approved. a god candle they say and probably going more than $50k in the next days. combined with halving, we're going more than $100 after halving.

[Woodie]

Seems everyone out there expects an approval to happen and to be honest, I see this as a double edged sword that can hurt the markets... Imagine what would happen should this approval not happen, most likely a crash but for the sake of one's peace of mind, I won't keep my expectations high for now as I have seen this before

Btw, was watching some financial markets news earlier today on CNBC,  SEC account was reported compromised and claiming an approval ....would this influence the decision to come  I think Yesss...but guess the regulator can't make decisions based on emotions and we just have to wait for their official response...

[buwaytress]

That SEC hijack was nice, not spectacular, disappointingly. The day of days, tomorrow eh OP?

You know things are heating up when ETF headlines share the same breath as S2F(x).

P.S. 1miau, don't know how I missed this post, I usually skim over this section

Probably due to the mixer ban and people commenting more in Gambling / Gabling discussion, it's really quiet here in Bitcoin discussion, at least compared to as it's usually. 

Makes sense. I started my life on the forum in some godforsaken place but it really was spent mostly in Bitcoin subs until I became a hell lot more familiar with that side of utility haha (plus the fact I realised I was far less able to contribute than more learned members post 2017).

I do find even in discussion now there is a strong speculation tinge, less and less utility for some reason.

[livingfree]

It seems that the rumor has caused more jumped to the market than the actual day when the Bitcoin Spot ETFs have been approved. In total, SEC approved 11 of it. Several sources reported.

• US SEC approves 11 spot bitcoin ETFs
• US approves first spot bitcoin ETF applications for 11 issuers
• The SEC said it has approved proposals for spot bitcoin ETFs on an accelerated basis
• Spot Bitcoin ETF receives official approval from the SEC
• APPROVED: Spot Bitcoin ETFs to Trade on US Markets in Historic Milestone
• SEC approves rule changes that pave the way for bitcoin ETFs
  

[Agbamoni]

Tomorrow will be the day of the days. 
I'm expecting an approval but anything can happen...

Wow, if the approval will be possible by tomorrow, it will be a great news for Bitcoin enthusiast. But you have to be prepared for any outcome tomorrow. Because the approval is a probability and not an assurance. Although the probability rate of approval to disapproval is 70:30.

Also, Bitcoin went down to $45k within yesterday and today. What are your thought on this? Do you think it is because of the Bitcoin ETF approval announcement? Am curious to know. Because earlier today i saw a tweet that 500 BTC was transferred from unknown wallet to coinbase.

[STT]

I argue the opposite, modern markets tend to drool over the prospect of a favorite upcoming positive.  We far too much focus on the possible positives and under rate even the premium that should be there firstly with the idea itself as it may not even happen for sure and then even if it does occur is it really as big an effect as we imagine.
   Over time this entire year sure Im bullish but just this event nah, I fear far more all the drawbacks that come with government regulators sitting on top of anything positive for bitcoin out of the fear they have of its unbridled nature.     At least some of the positives are in the price right now, thats mostly what Im arguing as its not an especially hard point to make.

[1miau]

It's approved now, yaay.  
Now, let's wait how the positive outcomes, combined of positive publicity for Bitcoin, more money coming in and BlackRock + Co. doing Bitcoin ads will affect Bitcoin.
In combination with an upcoming halving it's really a bullish situation.

But we have to admit as well, that it looks like the premature announcement yesterday crashed the party big time.  

That SEC hijack was nice, not spectacular, disappointingly. The day of days, tomorrow eh OP?

I always feel like 01:xx:xx AM is still previous day for me.  

Also, Bitcoin went down to $45k within yesterday and today. What are your thought on this? Do you think it is because of the Bitcoin ETF approval announcement? Am curious to know.

The market's big disappointment how leniently the SEC handles its Twitter account.  

[cakravothy]

There was no price shock or massive price pump after the bitcoin ETF was approved.
bitcoin price is normal. the increase or decrease is also small according to the price increase on normal days. like there is no big news at all to shake the market