BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger jump than most people expect

[wiss19]

BlackRock and similar institutions have a lot of money to do whatever they want.

They have their clients' money that they can't just throw around - and all those trillions of $ they manage were never meant to end up in Bitcoin as some imagined. Especially not in BTC mining, which will become less and less profitable, considering that after the next halving, only about 450 BTC will be mined per day, which is literally just dust compared to the 19.6 million BTC that are already in circulation.

In addition, in less than 10 years, 99% of all coins will be mined, and I believe that even before that, many miners will move to some new, more profitable projects.

I would say "mining becomes less profitable" was a thought before every halving, but the reality is that if the price of bitcoin goes up, then mining it still stays profitable. So, if you mine 1 bitcoin per day at 40k dollars per bitcoin, and if you mine 0.5 bitcoins per day when it is 100k, you are making more money with the second one, while you mine less bitcoins.

This is why after every halving the price usually goes up, to make sure that miners keep going strong and protect the integrity of blockchain. I am not saying blackrock made a great decision, nor will they just make a mistake, they are just diversifying their portfolio and if people are fine with every single stock they get into, they should be fine with this one as well, not riskier than some other investments.

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[Abiky]

I would say "mining becomes less profitable" was a thought before every halving, but the reality is that if the price of bitcoin goes up, then mining it still stays profitable. So, if you mine 1 bitcoin per day at 40k dollars per bitcoin, and if you mine 0.5 bitcoins per day when it is 100k, you are making more money with the second one, while you mine less bitcoins.

This is why after every halving the price usually goes up, to make sure that miners keep going strong and protect the integrity of blockchain. I am not saying blackrock made a great decision, nor will they just make a mistake, they are just diversifying their portfolio and if people are fine with every single stock they get into, they should be fine with this one as well, not riskier than some other investments.

Only IF the prices go up over time. But what if market prices go down and stay that way for a prolonged period of time? Then BTC mining will become less profitable than what it used to be. History has shown us that BTC's market prices increase after each halving. I'm hopeful the upcoming halving will have the same effect on market price. This one will be even bigger than before because of the spot ETFs approval by the SEC.

Maybe BTC is bound to go to $100k soon? It would be unwise to buy BTC during the bull season. The moment is now to accumulate as much BTC before it "explodes". As long as you don't go crazy putting all of your life savings into the cryptocurrency, there should be nothing to worry about. Just my thoughts

[Lanatsa]

I would say "mining becomes less profitable" was a thought before every halving, but the reality is that if the price of bitcoin goes up, then mining it still stays profitable. So, if you mine 1 bitcoin per day at 40k dollars per bitcoin, and if you mine 0.5 bitcoins per day when it is 100k, you are making more money with the second one, while you mine less bitcoins.

This is why after every halving the price usually goes up, to make sure that miners keep going strong and protect the integrity of blockchain. I am not saying blackrock made a great decision, nor will they just make a mistake, they are just diversifying their portfolio and if people are fine with every single stock they get into, they should be fine with this one as well, not riskier than some other investments.

Only IF the prices go up over time. But what if market prices go down and stay that way for a prolonged period of time? Then BTC mining will become less profitable than what it used to be. History has shown us that BTC's market prices increase after each halving. I'm hopeful the upcoming halving will have the same effect on market price. This one will be even bigger than before because of the spot ETFs approval by the SEC.

Maybe BTC is bound to go to $100k soon? It would be unwise to buy BTC during the bull season. The moment is now to accumulate as much BTC before it "explodes". As long as you don't go crazy putting all of your life savings into the cryptocurrency, there should be nothing to worry about. Just my thoughts

ETF or not it wont matter on which this market is still that unpredictable, it is really just that this moment we do have these institutions are really that getting involved or simply institutional funds are flowing into.
We cant really tell that the recent surge of increasing prices is the result of it or really just that still that ordinary day in crypto on which this has been that typical or standard.
Some saying that this is the result of ETF approval but we cant be sure, come to think that we are already heading on upcoming Bitcoin halving event on which it is really just that having those positive
sentiments in regarding about those price potential movement.

Now that we are heading on Bitcoin halving event then we are already that near on that so called BULL RUN on which all of people here on this space had been anticipating or really that expecting.
Jumping prices would really be just that next in line. We cant really just know on whats the exact date for this one. This is why speculations would really be flying or floating around.

[fillippone]

I was finally able to get hold of the infamous Bank of America study that stated the 118x inflow multiplier to market capitalisation.



According to my back-of-the-envelope calculation, the current multiplier is way lower, but I get this number recalled almost daily.

[STT]

If the price went down (consistently even after halvening) you will then have less miners but also less difficulty, the system does adjust so it should be ok as it has in the past.   The jeopardy for miners is they are stuck with unprofitable programs of planned mining on hardware already paid for, Bitcoin blockchain itself is not subject to that loss but the people who would gain also risk losses which seems fair enough a scenario.

I wish I had carried on mining for years after it become non profitable because as we know now it was fine if you held on.   That was an unknown and risky, I did mine onwards in that way a little bit but perhaps I should have been more determined, retrospective is a killer.

We had the ETF Jump and its ironic sell after, now its gained back more then the first gain and people hope for more but its the continual positive effect I would focus on here over these jumps.   I hope that larger picture is true as we can pullback further from here but an underlying trend up would be powerful if repeated over 12 months after this news, it could be that big Im not sure yet.

[Troytech]

What ever pump bitcoin is having now is strictly because of the ETF approval as you said it has had quite the effect on bitcoin and bitcoin has never once broken it's cycle of pre halving dip, but the way it is going now we might not have any of that untill a new ATH or even quite after, ETF has caused quite the increased demand for bitcoin and most holders are taking their asset if the exchanges to self custodian making the available supply of bitcoin on exchanges even lower, if bitcoin is scare and the demand is high we well know what to expect.

[fillippone]

Numbers went up today: 10B in trading volume.
Absolutely bonkers for funds that have been launched less than two months ago:
 


For sure the excitement over the ATH played its part, but this is something bigger than expected.
Let's wait for the (in) flows number.

[Uhwuchukwu53]

I think people are expecting a decision to be announced in about 4 hours. We’ll see. There are a lot of signs that approval is imminent so you could make the argument that the market already has it priced in. I’m not sold on it being an immediate positive for the price, but I think it’ll have a lasting bullish effect for a long time. 

That's my thought over time but still have some doubt, I observed that bullish effect will take deep impact soon.

[fillippone]

Numbers go up in the ETF have unpondered consequences:

Bitcoin ETFs Are Starting to Compete With S&P 500, Says Michael Saylor

“We thought that maybe Bitcoin was a competitor to gold, but it has actually run up the leaderboard, and now it’s starting to nip at the heels of the S&P 500 Index ETFs,” MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said during an interview at the Madeira Bitcoin conference.

Maybe it's an overstatement, maybe not.
For sure, they have been competing with GOLD, as they have been sucking AUM from Gold's ETF in the past weeks.
Competing with SPX ETF might be premature, but as well, they are competing with stocks as a store of value.

[AVE5]

It has always been the nature of Investors to increase the value of their bitcoin holding once they've got to learn about some promise potentials ahead in the nearest. Maybe it could be some coats of excitements and greeds. Haha.
While the ETF approval is on expectations, a lot of Investors has already set up their places of relevance utilities 😆

[fillippone]

The next hot topic in the space is the Bitcoin ETF launch in Hong Kong in the coming weeks.
Given the sheer appetite for Bitcoin by Chinese investors, huge demand is expected.
I don't know actually how much demand has been going to be channeled by these instruments over there, but I read an analysis that it could be fuel toward 100k.

[Agbamoni]

The next hot topic in the space is the Bitcoin ETF launch in Hong Kong in the coming weeks.
Given the sheer appetite for Bitcoin by Chinese investors, huge demand is expected.
I don't know actually how much demand has been going to be channeled by these instruments over there, but I read an analysis that it could be fuel toward 100k.

I agree! It's no longer a rumor anymore. This could be a big deal for Asia in general. $100 mark soon!

The involvement of institutions has convinced me that Bitcoin will be much better than what we see now. Hong Kong approval would be the first Asia continental ever cryptocurrency ETF approval. I heard some rumors about London and South Korea ETF approval.

More information source here on X

[GigaBit]

Volatility has a dip connection with Bitcoin. While this volatility may not be readily accepted by many, it is commonplace for those who understand the Bitcoin relationship. There is no specific reason why Bitcoin will rise or fall in value. The price of Bitcoin can increase or decrease due to any number of reasons such as business, economy, legislation. Those who are interested in investing in Bitcoin should not only be most excited about Bitcoin's upward momentum, but also be aware that any time the price of Bitcoin could take a massive dump. There has been no negative news in the crypto space in recent times but the crypto market has seen a major decline due to the financial issues. As an investor there is no option to be patient in this situation. Bitcoin is a decentralized digital asset where people's interest  will continue to grow.

[fillippone]

Rumor is Hong Kong ETF could be approved tomorrow.
Market impact is dubious, as ETF market is tiny there when compared to the US.
Maybe the avid Bitcoin buyers from mainland China, will flock this new government friendly alternative and it will be a blowout.
Who knows?

[Abiky]

Rumor is Hong Kong ETF could be approved tomorrow.
Market impact is dubious, as ETF market is tiny there when compared to the US.
Maybe the avid Bitcoin buyers from mainland China, will flock this new government friendly alternative and it will be a blowout.
Who knows?

Yes. Spot ETF approvals are starting to reach the world. It won't be long before most countries go all in Bitcoin. This will create a supply shock, effectively rising market prices over the long term. A win-win for both retail and institutional investors.

I hope these moves don't compromise Bitcoin's decentralization in the long run. I understand network consensus is completely independent from economic holders, but concentration of supply among a few brings inequality into the system. Imagine what influence corporate giants will have over BTC miners with their large holdings. I'm just speculating here. We can't predict the future, so lets hope for the best.

[fillippone]

Rumor is Hong Kong ETF could be approved tomorrow.
Market impact is dubious, as ETF market is tiny there when compared to the US.
Maybe the avid Bitcoin buyers from mainland China, will flock this new government friendly alternative and it will be a blowout.
Who knows?

Yes. Spot ETF approvals are starting to reach the world. It won't be long before most countries go all in Bitcoin. This will create a supply shock, effectively rising market prices over the long term. A win-win for both retail and institutional investors.

I hope these moves don't compromise Bitcoin's decentralization in the long run. I understand network consensus is completely independent from economic holders, but concentration of supply among a few brings inequality into the system. Imagine what influence corporate giants will have over BTC miners with their large holdings. I'm just speculating here. We can't predict the future, so lets hope for the best.

I wouldn't be so worried about this.
Holding a large amount of bitcoins doesn't make you feel heard in the community. Bitcoin is not a PoS shitcoin.
There is no way that ETF issuers can influence bitcoin development because they hold a large stash of bitcoin.
Of course, they could pay to access the Bitcoin development team, but this would depend on their economic power, not the fact that they hold many bitcoins.

[Abiky]

I wouldn't be so worried about this.
Holding a large amount of bitcoins doesn't make you feel heard in the community. Bitcoin is not a PoS shitcoin.
There is no way that ETF issuers can influence bitcoin development because they hold a large stash of bitcoin.
Of course, they could pay to access the Bitcoin development team, but this would depend on their economic power, not the fact that they hold many bitcoins.

Of course not. Bitcoin may not be a PoS coin, but economic holders can have an impact over network consensus. Especially if they use their money to acquire a large portion of the hashrate. Firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, and VanEck are filthy rich. What makes you think they won't buy companies with mining farms (or even make their own)? They can even pay for the development of Bitcoin Core and steer the project to their own direction. Even if the community decides what gets approved or rejected on BTC's codebase, that won't stop greedy corporations from getting what they want.

The idea has always been to encourage self-custody of BTC among individuals to prevent third-parties from monopolizing it. That's what governments want (especially the US government). They want institutional investment companies to buy all of the BTC so they can control it. People will be forced to comply with KYC just to get access to Bitcoin. Just because ETFs promise to "pump" market prices, doesn't mean it's good for the future of BTC. Hopefully, people will understand this before it's too late.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Rumor is Hong Kong ETF could be approved tomorrow.
Market impact is dubious, as ETF market is tiny there when compared to the US.
Maybe the avid Bitcoin buyers from mainland China, will flock this new government friendly alternative and it will be a blowout.
Who knows?

And so they did,

The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong has officially granted approval for several spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the region. The approved ETFs include ChinaAMC, Harvest, and Bosera HashKey Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, as listed on the SFC website.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-approves-spot-bitcoin-064416209.html

And trading begins on Monday April 30, unfortunately though, it is not offered to Mainland China. As obviously, we all know that the Chinese government is no longer Bitcoin friendly. But we will see how big it will be for Hongkong when it official opens at Monday, we will find out if it will have a huge impact on the price of Bitcoin or not.