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Author Topic: Betting on underdog by choosing a favorite spread to increase the odds.  (Read 311 times)
Questat (OP)
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January 03, 2024, 04:48:25 AM
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 #1

Does anyone here do the same?

For example, let's say there's a game tomorrow between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Indiana Pacers. The original betting spread is Indiana +2.5 vs Milwaukee -2.5. Let's assume their respective spreads have odds of 1.90, and you believe the underdog will win. Are you willing to bet on Indiana as favorites?

By saying favorites, I mean would you choose Indiana -2.5 with 2.50 odds, a little higher than the moneyline odds which is 2.23.

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January 03, 2024, 06:51:40 AM
 #2

I do not like betting undergo against strong clubs. Strong clubs will have low odds while underdogs will have higher odds but which may not worth going for. Although sometimes I can go for underdog, but the only reason I can do that is when the strong club is not performing good in its previous matches and making me to have doubt as the strong club is losing to most matches it recently played.

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January 03, 2024, 06:59:27 AM
 #3

I do not like betting undergo against strong clubs. Strong clubs will have low odds while underdogs will have higher odds but which may not worth going for. Although sometimes I can go for underdog, but the only reason I can do that is when the strong club is not performing good in its previous matches and making me to have doubt as the strong club is losing to most matches it recently played.


Right. If the big teams aren't doing so hot lately, take the chance on the underdogs. Just trust the gut feeling and check if the strong clubs are on a losing streak. If the big-shot teams have been slacking off in their recent games, it could be a sign they're not at their best.

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January 03, 2024, 10:32:57 AM
 #4

Such bets are worth it for me sometimes, but only if I'm familiar with the league or the association teams playing.
Sometimes many markets don't have enough bets on the actually best team, and in such the moneyline doesn't get tipped to the most likely direction it would be.
So if you're early to a market you can catch good odds on a team that actually has good chances to win.

Betting on an underdog imho wouldn't be worth it unless the odds were significantly higher.

So for the example mentioned in the OP, I don't think Pacers are that much of an underdog and the odds actually make sense. If the match was something like Celtics vs Wizards with these odds, it'd make absolutely no sense to bet on Wizards with these odds given the past performance their team has had in the league. It'd be a bargain to bet on the Bucks however.

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January 03, 2024, 10:38:12 AM
 #5

Does anyone here do the same?

For example, let's say there's a game tomorrow between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Indiana Pacers. The original betting spread is Indiana +2.5 vs Milwaukee -2.5. Let's assume their respective spreads have odds of 1.90, and you believe the underdog will win. Are you willing to bet on Indiana as favorites?

By saying favorites, I mean would you choose Indiana -2.5 with 2.50 odds, a little higher than the moneyline odds which is 2.23.
Many people are influenced by the odd and I would count myself to be a victim too but I know that so many gamblers would prefer betting on under dog as they believe the bookmakers are doing that just to confuse them to make the wrong decision. I have bet on under dog before that's in respect of their odd difference but the stats between the two teams shows  that the under dog is more active to win the game so I choose to select sometimes due to their performance irrespective of their odds difference and not always but sometimes it does work for me.

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January 03, 2024, 10:46:31 AM
 #6

I do not like betting undergo against strong clubs. Strong clubs will have low odds while underdogs will have higher odds but which may not worth going for. Although sometimes I can go for underdog, but the only reason I can do that is when the strong club is not performing good in its previous matches and making me to have doubt as the strong club is losing to most matches it recently played.


Right. If the big teams aren't doing so hot lately, take the chance on the underdogs. Just trust the gut feeling and check if the strong clubs are on a losing streak. If the big-shot teams have been slacking off in their recent games, it could be a sign they're not at their best.
Not really that much of an assurance on which we do know that even on sports, we do really have also that so called "bad day" and there's no such thing about 100% winning rate on which
there would really be those times or moments on which you could really be able to notice that favorite teams arent performing well basing up into its previous games on which it is really that normal that you would really be having impressions that the next games would really be the same but it would really be that always hard to stick into that idea since games could really be changed up.
Betting on underdogs could really give out that huge hesitance but your gut feeling would really be telling and keep pushing you to have some bet at least
because if you do counter up things and giving out that different result or getting in line with those inner voices and gut feeling then that would really be leaving out that kind of long lasting regret.
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January 03, 2024, 11:08:44 AM
 #7

I’ve been in a similar strategy before where my only target was the higher payout without conducting research or making analysis, which is a very risky move. It's still better if you have a basis for why you chose the underdog and not just because of a guess. For this scenario, I’m confident in Indiana’s ability to at least keep the game close or even win; the higher odds with the spread might be an attractive proposition. For me, sports betting comes with 50% luck and 50% strategy. It’s important to analyze the teams’ recent performances, player statistics, and other factors that could influence the game's outcome. If you don't depend solely on luck, you can improve your chances by making strategic decisions based on solid research.

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January 03, 2024, 11:42:20 AM
 #8

It relies upon the matches bud. Yesterday I lost the -4.5 handicap with only 1.50x on the Milwaukee Bucks. Because the Bucks are playing in their stadium, I had no idea I would lose that wager.

The Bucks will want their vengeance, but if they can win, it will not be easy. In their return match at Indiana, I anticipate the Pacers to become even better with their fans cheering on them. The Milwaukee Bucks stay the favorite choice because they are consistently on top of the league but in this particular match, I am placing a bet on the -2.50 with a 2.50x odds on the Pacers.

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January 03, 2024, 12:01:34 PM
 #9

Sometimes I would bet on underdog and get a favorite spread. It will pay off sometimes but there's always an algorithm on it and that we cannot abuse the bookies. Just like the concluded game of Celtics vs OKC, Celtics was -4 before the game, so if you bet on OKC -2.5, I think you'll get more than 2.50 of odds, but like I mentioned it does not happen often, so you have to be choosy on what game you'll bet on.

If you want to experiment on your own, might as well put a record so you can confirm. I think most bettors here would choose lower odds with higher chances of winning, or at least they only based on odds to calculat the chances of winning.

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January 03, 2024, 12:19:12 PM
 #10

I do not like betting undergo against strong clubs. Strong clubs will have low odds while underdogs will have higher odds but which may not worth going for. Although sometimes I can go for underdog, but the only reason I can do that is when the strong club is not performing good in its previous matches and making me to have doubt as the strong club is losing to most matches it recently played.

You are right, and indeed when there is match involving strong team then consideration must be made by looking at the Odds on the favorite team whether it is worth betting on.
By choosing favorite team, you may have big chance of winning, but the Odds will probably be very low, such as 1.1 to 1.3
This is very small profit multiple and of course you have to face the risk of surprises that could happen.
A strong favorite team will not always win because there are losses and draws, this is an unexpected surprise and always causes gamblers to experience defeat.
But if everyone is sure to win with Odds that have been considered or are worth betting on, such as more than 1.5, then we can take the risk by betting money on betting option that we are sure of.
Moreover, Handicap bets are not easy to predict correctly and Handicap bets often cause gamblers to make mistakes and end up losing.

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January 03, 2024, 12:47:05 PM
 #11

I used to do this on 2020, and one thing I know is that deviating a couple of points from the spread and putting it on the favorites is always a good thing. From your example, that's a 4-point difference from the original spread, and it's there for a reason.

I could risk it at -2.5, but I could also play the other team to cover the spread  for a less riskier bet with a lesser number of returns. Those spreads are there for a reason, and with the tight spread, it means that one cannot really outscore the other by a lot of points. Sticking close to the spread is practically a good idea here, and -2.5 for Indiana with that much of a jump just means that it's quite improbable for them to reach such a result, let alone win. But if you're brave enough, you can put a medium bet on that and hedge live if there are lines offered

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January 03, 2024, 12:47:48 PM
 #12

Does anyone here do the same?

For example, let's say there's a game tomorrow between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Indiana Pacers. The original betting spread is Indiana +2.5 vs Milwaukee -2.5. Let's assume their respective spreads have odds of 1.90, and you believe the underdog will win. Are you willing to bet on Indiana as favorites?

By saying favorites, I mean would you choose Indiana -2.5 with 2.50 odds, a little higher than the moneyline odds which is 2.23.
I am a risky person in terms of gambling because I believe that if you are in gamble then
you can try harder about the luck so yeah I may do that specially if the team involves is one of my favorite?
then i will love going Underdog and try my luck to the limit.

but since I am not a regular gambler so I take the chances whenever i bet to risk more
in underdogs.

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January 03, 2024, 12:52:19 PM
 #13

Does anyone here do the same?

For example, let's say there's a game tomorrow between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Indiana Pacers. The original betting spread is Indiana +2.5 vs Milwaukee -2.5. Let's assume their respective spreads have odds of 1.90, and you believe the underdog will win. Are you willing to bet on Indiana as favorites?

By saying favorites, I mean would you choose Indiana -2.5 with 2.50 odds, a little higher than the moneyline odds which is 2.23.
I guess you have to look at other factors as well, like where is the game going to play as sometimes, homecourt advantage is still that, an advantage. And in their last game, Pacers won. But if you look at the odds today, it's the Bucks that is the favorite.

Currently, I see the line +2.5 Indiana @2.06, and then -2.5 for Bucks @1.81.

So in this case, I might go with the Bucks if that is the line, unless you really you think that Pacers are a live underdog.

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January 03, 2024, 01:40:43 PM
 #14

By saying favorites, I mean would you choose Indiana -2.5 with 2.50 odds, a little higher than the moneyline odds which is 2.23.
I usually bet on the +5 and up when it comes to underdogs. I would rather choose moneyline in your example though. I don't do that kind of spread on matchups that could go either way or too close to call. Another thing is that odds aren't that far apart so why risk losing a bet in a match that could be decided by 1 or 2 points.

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January 03, 2024, 07:40:36 PM
 #15

I definitely don't just bet on underdogs, when I look at a game I don't look at odds first, I try to see the condition of each team in the last games and how each player has been doing and after I have an idea of which of the teams will win in the game, so I go to the casino to see how the odds are, I've been doing this to not let myself be influenced by the casino's odds, because most of the time when the person first goes to the casino and sees the game, in the game, team Z has odds of 1.50 and team Y has an odds of 2.50, so the person immediately thinks that team Z will win the game because it is being seen as the favorite and the odds difference is large, but the person does not think that the odds makers analyzed that game their way

and they don't have a crystal ball, so they can make mistakes and for this reason the person must also analyze the game by counting on themselves before placing a bet, and if in the case of the person's analysis it is pointing towards team Y coming out as the winner, then the person must bet on team Y as the winner. There are many games where people make mistakes and people get it right. Now what people shouldn't do is bet on the underdogs in all games so they can test their luck and get it right and win a lot of money with high odds, I think these types of methods are not very good and cause long-term losses. but there are many people who like to do this. To this day, I still don't understand why someone wastes money on betting on the underdog just to test their luck.

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January 03, 2024, 07:44:13 PM
 #16

Does anyone here do the same?

For example, let's say there's a game tomorrow between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Indiana Pacers. The original betting spread is Indiana +2.5 vs Milwaukee -2.5. Let's assume their respective spreads have odds of 1.90, and you believe the underdog will win. Are you willing to bet on Indiana as favorites?

By saying favorites, I mean would you choose Indiana -2.5 with 2.50 odds, a little higher than the moneyline odds which is 2.23.

First of all I don't think Indiana is a big favorite against Milwaukee Bucks and I do not bet on such events.Anyway after seeing yesterday night Sacramento Kings losing to Charlotte Hornets is a big no for me to bet on money line on the basketball games anymore,it is simply out of my poor human logic how a team with 1.07 odd in basketball can lose with 104-111 result and not be able to score as many points as they usually do.

Getting back to your idea,it is a great idea to back the underdog but not with those small spreads,I would go and get the maximum in a basketball game,for example yesterday if we backed Charlotte Hornets with +11.5 or 13.5 points whichever was the maximum we would have won,of course no one thought about the surprise win they made.

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January 03, 2024, 08:21:39 PM
 #17

I do not like betting undergo against strong clubs. Strong clubs will have low odds while underdogs will have higher odds but which may not worth going for. Although sometimes I can go for underdog, but the only reason I can do that is when the strong club is not performing good in its previous matches and making me to have doubt as the strong club is losing to most matches it recently played.

Betting on underdog against a strong club is like throwing away your bet purposely but sometimes we get it wrong as gamble is something that is based on luck, sometimes the underdog wins the game and anyone that took the risk to bet on them will win big.

I have been lucky just once when I bet on an underdog club with 7 odds and I won big that day, I will say it was my luck and not that it normally happen, because for sure we all know that a strong club will definitely win the game.

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January 04, 2024, 10:46:37 AM
 #18

This is what we gamblers that bet mostly on football games do encounter and what will propel me to bet in favour of an underdog team against a bigger team in the league is when the big team has been playing below average in their series of recent performances in all games. Under such circumstance as a gambler you can take the chances of risking it in favour of an underdog team against them.

We can take the English Premier League for instance  Chelsea has been inconsistent with their performance having incurred many losses in their games especially against underdog clubs, so with that as a gambler going by Chelsea performance this season you can have the courage to  bet in favour of smaller team against them  believing that the chances of the underdog winning is highly possible except for some reasons you got unlucky on that day.

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January 04, 2024, 11:32:27 AM
 #19

I keep doing this all the time when I know the odds are really good we call this YOLO betting the meaning of it is you only live once, so you take a risk with the higher odds of course before doing this I know the potential of the team will play on this match, of course with the higher odds you can bet a small amount and being dependent on it, unlike with the potential winner of the game even you bet a large amount just a small percentage of return, sports game is one of the unpredictable game because of the will of the player or the team any thing can happen and make the table turns in just one mistake.

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January 04, 2024, 11:53:40 AM
 #20

I may not be too familiar with playing on the Underdog and this set of risky predictions that the lesser influencer team to win to boosten the games odds is assumed to be as Such of other bets.
So yes, I can take the bet risk siding the Indiana to win even when it is historically and tensed obvious that they would loos the match. I have a mental believe that history can be broken in the sense that "the young shall grow" has finally grown" and so doing, they would posses the abilities to do the great wonders of the oldens and somedays, the olden has to grow weak and retires.

Not just as that but because I am a gambler, I would always stand on the chances of risk taking on what would either fetch me fun or increases my financial portfolios.
But on such a bet as OP has just illustrated, I would always go on that betting on the Indiana to win but yeah, I am staking with a tolerable amount of stake with the say that..... " Let me just spread this specific amount of stake to the air if it turns good, Okay to let go and if turns bad, I takes it a cheers of a risky trial of inevitables".

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