Do you actually think a Bitcoin ETF will be accepted this month?

[goldkingcoiner]

Not sure if its going to be this month, next month or in half a year. But what I am sure of, is that it is eventually going to get approved. Anything pushing the market down is pure market manipulation from whales and their media friends so that they can buy some cheap Bitcoin off of the gullible panic sellers. Honestly, I would not be surprised if the SEC is working together with the whales to fill their pockets before Bitcoin starts mooning to 100k. I do not want to believe it, but who knows what will happen in this shady, corrupt world of ours...

Either way, the best option is to hodl.

[gabbie2010]

From all positive indication I think Bitcoin ETF will be approve soon with all the series of on going meetings by SEC with the major stake holders in the financial market clearly shows a possibly approval is on course but might not be immediate SEC might seek for more time to make some recommendations before final approval though all eyes is set to January 10th when the announcement by SEC would be made even if approval would be extended the price of Bitcoin might experience a minor correction, however Bitcoin is unstoppable for now with upcoming halving later in the year I believe it price would remain bullish.

[o48o]

I do believe that an ETF will be approved this month. Most likely we’ll see an approval on January 10th, but nothing is set in stone. Who knows, maybe some insiders want to try their hand at insider trading Bitcoin before an approval is made. I would imagine if no approval is seen on January 10th we will get a selloff, which may be why we’re seeing some profit taking recently.

We did have some drop recently which these articles been published out on media outlets

Bitcoin Spot ETF Proposals to Be Rejected by SEC: Matrixport Source
SEC will reject all Bitcoin ETFs in January, says MatrixportSource

Bitcoin price plummets but eventually backed up. A purely non obvious manipulation as always. 
I wont be surprised if there would be those sudden news or announcement about approval as they had already placed
themselves at the bottom.

Interestingly Jihan Wu, founder of Marixport tweeted about this, saying that realeasing and wide spreading of that report wasn't planned, and that they have no control over it. As their analysts work intependedly. It's good that they cleared that up, but i guess, as it affected markets, i guess they needed to say something in case of legal backslash.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/matrixport-founder-says-dissemination-bitcoin-etf-report-beyond-our-control

But now that i have thought this overnight, while approving it would be good for bitcoiners during next few years, it might be a a double sided sword, as if government approval brings bitcoin to new heights, the financial value of decentralization would be highly dependable on the governents which it was designed to be resilient to. I would rather see bitcoin growing without any permission or approval.

[darkangel11]

Interestingly Jihan Wu, founder of Marixport tweeted about this, saying that realeasing and wide spreading of that report wasn't planned, and that they have no control over it. As their analysts work intependedly. It's good that they cleared that up, but i guess, as it affected markets, i guess they needed to say something in case of legal backslash.

They knew exactly what they were doing, but thought it would have a much smaller impact, maybe a $1k reduction in price, but there weas too much leverage on the market and when it started falling all the leveraged sheep went down together. They probably did not expect the move, I give them that, but they knew what they were publishing and they published a positive report first, the price kept going up, so they made a negative one to pop the balloon. Jihan Wu was often involved in shady stuff so this doesn't surprise me.

[eightdots]

What do you think? Are we just days away from Bitcoin ETFs getting accepted or is the whole market about to be in for a huge disappointment?

I think ETFs will be approved, but whether they are approved or not, I don't like the fact that the increase in Bitcoin price is being treated as if it depends only on ETFs. Everywhere I look, I see ETF news and there is a perception that Bitcoin is only focused on ETF news and that Bitcoin will not move forward without ETFs. I don't find this situation right.

The approval of ETFs is something that the market expects and wants. We all want the price to go up, but it would be a mistake to attribute the rise of Bitcoin to one thing.

The expectation is that ETFs will be approved and the price of Bitcoin will rise. It may be useful to take every possibility into account.

[Viscore]

I honestly don’t see it happening this month but probably within the next quarter or even the year end. But whether its happening or not, I’m not really into it. Since I believe that even if ETF approval will be delayed, bitcoin will still continue to perform normally and will continue to gain new all time high. Bitcoin will still be highly volatile, and even if bitcoin value drops, it will create a bigger opportunity instead for those who cannot afford to invest in bitcoin when the price is ultimately high.

[The Cryptovator]

The US doesn't force any of their institutions to do something out of their minds. So the SEC Chair, Gensler, isn't under any pressure at all. He could decide whatever he wanted. Since he personally hates Bitcoin, he is constantly delaying Bitcoin ETF approval. I believe Gensler still hasn't decided anything but wants to collaborate. The court hasn't forced him to approve ETF; the court just says there is no restriction if the SEC wants to approve it. So at all points, the Bitcoin ETF fully depends on SEC Chair Gensler. There are rumours that we may get ETF approval news very soon or this week. I wish it could happen.

[Natalim]

We can't assure but never been hopeless for that to come. We have to give them time to study the situation as I believe they have a plan for it but yeah, if the SEC leaders are against Bitcoin, we could expect delays of approval or the worst is rejection.

That is why I'd never choose to think about it now and then as something will disappoint me. Better I hear the news about the date of approval rather than hearing "soon" because that is possible it never happened.

[franky1]

so the SEC in 2024 has met with the stock markets (NYSE, CBOE, NASDAQ)
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/sec-to-finalize-comments-on-spot-bitcoin-etfs-with-stock-exchanges-today

also the applicants have filed extra 8-A filings today in regards to registering securities under 12(b) category

which a quick google says

Securities exchange listing. Before a company's securities can begin to trade on a "national securities exchange" (as defined by the SEC) such as the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq Stock Market, a company must register that class of securities (debt or equity) with the SEC under Section 12(b) of the Exchange Act.

so things are moving very very close
vaneck https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838028/000093041324000030/c107594_8a12b.htm
grayscale https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1588489/000095017024001501/btc_form_8-a12b_1.4.24.htm
fidelity https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852317/000119312524001377/d582196d8a12b.htm
ark21 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1869699/000119312524002254/d647221d8a12b.htm

[Maslate]

If bitcoin ETF will be approved this month, then we will see bitcoin price increase in the following days. But as much as I want to see it, I also have this feeling that it will not be possible this month since a lot of rumors have been coming out that the acceptance might be delayed and most probably, we will see bitcoin price in dips again.

Well I have no issues seeing bitcoin price drops again because as long as volatility is present, we will always see and experience price fluctuations. While it could be a threat for those who are greedy to gain an income, but it will also serve as a big opportunity for those who have plans to enter the market while price is still in dips.

[boyptc]

While it is not yet approved, the chance is always there that it might get a decline. I'm okay whichever comes as the result.

But with all the SEC talks and meetings with different institutions, exchanges and the ones involved with the application. Does it makes sense to think that there's actually a positive progress?

That's what I think if I'll be basing on those movements.

[nelson4lov]

What is scary is how 80% think it will be approved this month. This is getting to the point where everyone expects it to be approved and usually when the herd is going one way the opposite happens.

Reminds me of 2017, people were 99% it would be approved and instead it was rejected and we had a nasty spike down. But the remainder of the year was still bullish when bitcoin broke $1K all the way to $20K.

Imo it's a 50/50 chance although I'm slightly more inclined to an approval rather than a rejection. The reasons being that Bitcoin is now a more mature asset compared to 2017 (6+ years in the making) and also the fact that we now have the biggest players pushing the ETF narrative for Bitcoin this time rather than a crypto native company. In any case, I will miss the Bitcoin etf ads especially this one from Bitwise  if the ETFs are rejected this month.  

[taufik123]

Imo it's a 50/50 chance although I'm slightly more inclined to an approval rather than a rejection. The reasons being that Bitcoin is now a more mature asset compared to 2017 (6+ years in the making) and also the fact that we now have the biggest players pushing the ETF narrative for Bitcoin this time rather than a crypto native company. In any case, I will miss the Bitcoin etf ads especially this one from Bitwise  if the ETFs are rejected this month.  

The other 50% said this would be rejected, and those who said it just had a pessimistic attitude about how Bitcoin was evolving.
when the ETF News was postponed until Q2 2024 this already gave a negative perspective that Bitcoin will not be accepted, so the Price crashed,
but look how now, Bitcoin Price is recovering, LOL.

Talking about ETFs is very sensitive to the price of Bitcoin, but we'll see how the biggest drama about these ETFs will end.
Big companies or big players will certainly drive the narrative that Bitcoin ETFs will be accepted.
We will see the Bulls breaking through the new ATH when a Bitcoin ETF is accepted.

[mirakal]

Well, I was very positive last year that bitcoin ETF will be finally approved, but upon seeing a lot of news circulating online, I think bitcoin ETF will not be approved this time, or it may have the chances to be approve but in the later part. And whatever the outcome of the price of bitcoin due to disapproval if ever, I won’t be totally affected since I still focus on my goal on hodling bitcoin for long term. Bitcoin will still be bitcoin no matter what, it’s potentials to keep on surging will always be there, but only needs perfect timing for it to be done.

[Darker45]

Despite the noise and the FOMO and the hype, I think it's 50:50. It could be a yes or a no. Although I want the SEC's decision to be positive and see how the market reacts, that it would once again reject the applications is a probability. The SEC might reject the applications for now pending further preparations and polishing of policies and safeguards which pave the way for an eventual approval. A spot Bitcoin ETF in the US is still a matter of when, of course, but the SEC might simply say it's still premature for now. There's much more cleaning to be done.

I am not a lawyer and don't know about laws in the USA. especially for Bitcoin Spot ETF and how long SEC. can delay it. It seem they are going to a deadline to announce their decision, Yes or No. However, is there any chance for SEC. to postpone it again with somewhat reason they can use?

I'm also not so sure about this, but I think it's the SEC that has the power over this. It's the SEC that set all those deadlines in the past. But it's also the SEC that extended those deadlines and delayed the decisions. This January 10 deadline is also coming from the SEC, so my hunch is that they could once again move this deadline to a later date.

I'm not sure how many times they can move the decision dates. But if this is the deadline of all deadlines, then they could easily say no, and they have all the reasons to do that. But, of course, this doesn't preclude the same players to once again file revised applications.

[bettercrypto]

I can't say if this month the other applicants for the spot bitcoin ETF will be approved; the SEC may delay it for a while, or it could also be this month that they have approved something. I'm not sure.

But the only thing I'm sure of is that they will approve some of these applications, because it is unlikely that they will approve anything because the Sec will surely face a big problem if they reject it this time. That's all I know about that matter.

[nelson4lov]

~Snipped

The other 50% said this would be rejected, and those who said it just had a pessimistic attitude about how Bitcoin was evolving.
when the ETF News was postponed until Q2 2024 this already gave a negative perspective that Bitcoin will not be accepted, so the Price crashed,
but look how now, Bitcoin Price is recovering, LOL.

Talking about ETFs is very sensitive to the price of Bitcoin, but we'll see how the biggest drama about these ETFs will end.
Big companies or big players will certainly drive the narrative that Bitcoin ETFs will be accepted.
We will see the Bulls breaking through the new ATH when a Bitcoin ETF is accepted.

If none of the current ETFs are approved, it would be a major blow to the industry and it would break a lot of hearts. A lot of people started to believe again in a Bitcoin ETF this time because of the caliber of orgs pushing for it this time. If it turns out to be a failure, there's no telling what's going to happen. We can already see what the excitement about the pre-approval already, that's why I have my fingers crossed.

This is looking like a now or never kind of situation. A Bitcoin ETF + Halving — what a time it would be to be alive.

[Jegileman]

Supposedly we've only got a week until many people think the SEC will accept the first Bitcoin ETFs.

Do you think it'll actually happen? Or do you think it's just been a bunch of 'hopium' and the SEC is just gonna reject all the ETFs same as they've been doing for the past 5 years?

I feel both of your points because as it is now, one cannot tell where all this speculations is going to end. One cannot tell to what direction this is leading to but it will definitely be amongst the two you’ve mentioned in your post. If they reject it this time around, I will have to come to a conclusion that SEC is just here to follow in the manipulation of the market after knowing that the market reacts or respond to the trends of the bitcoin ETF approval.

What do you think? Are we just days away from Bitcoin ETFs getting accepted or is the whole market about to be in for a huge disappointment?

Any direction the market goes now shouldn’t be a disappointment to anyone. We already know what is ahead of us whether it is accepted or not, by knowing so, I think the mind and body should be programmed to such state so that it doesn’t affect our mental state when the unexpected happens.

[wiss19]

not sure. everyone is talking about the halving, I think the bitcoin ETF is starting to be forgotten but there is no positive news being published. If it is accepted at the same time as the halving hype this year, Bitcoin could soar and it is even impossible to predict the extent of the trend. I think this will be interesting to wait for. let's wait another 4 days it will be decisive with this bitcoin ETF. everyone is definitely waiting for a good decision.

It will surely be forgotten again if things consistently remain to be uncertain. But for now, I think it isn't yet, as there people who are still positive about its acceptance. The year is only getting started, so we still have plenty of time for waiting and giving allocation for the people on the ETF side, if what are going to be their decisions, if it's going to be a yes or a no.

BTC can still soar even without the ETF but only with the halving alone because it's a super event which will impact the Bitcoins mechanism in a positive way. Though with the power of halving and ETF combined, it can be predicted that the duration of the pump will remain longer than usual.

[thecodebear]

The US doesn't force any of their institutions to do something out of their minds. So the SEC Chair, Gensler, isn't under any pressure at all. He could decide whatever he wanted. Since he personally hates Bitcoin, he is constantly delaying Bitcoin ETF approval. I believe Gensler still hasn't decided anything but wants to collaborate. The court hasn't forced him to approve ETF; the court just says there is no restriction if the SEC wants to approve it. So at all points, the Bitcoin ETF fully depends on SEC Chair Gensler. There are rumours that we may get ETF approval news very soon or this week. I wish it could happen.

There's a big difference between forcing something and there being pressure. Yeah no one can force Gensler to approve an ETF, but that doesn't mean there isn't a lot of pressure on him to approve it, because there is, and there has been for most of last year. For example, if SEC rejects the ETFs again now Grayscale will likely sue them because the court already threw out the SEC's bogus reasons for denying Grayscale last time. Other of these firms looking for an ETF approval may sue the SEC as well. So the legal pressure is already there and will likely get a lot more intense if Gensler blocks the ETFs. Also you just know that Gensler is going to be hauled in front of Congress again soon and get grilled mercilessly if he denies the ETFs again.

The political and court pressure is very real for Gensler. And he certainly knows it will get a lot more intense this year if he rejects the ETFs. That doesn't mean he will approve them, because no one can force him, but it does mean he is taking these things into account. While everyone knows he hates Bitcoin and doesn't want to do anything to help it grow in America and wants to see it die in America, given all the pressure on him, and all the pressure that would be on him if he rejects them again, he may be weighing the costs and decide its not worth it to delay the inevitable ETF that's gonna happen anyway in a few years once he is out of office, if the other option is being put under continuous intense pressure for the next 2.5 years of his job.

That's essentially the calculus going on that will decide if the ETFs get approved now. Does Gensler stick to his guns and greatly increase his troubles or does he just say screw it and allow the ETFs against his own personal desires in order to not be hounded by this for the next couple years. It's looking the past month or so more and more like the latter as the SEC is making sure all the applicants have everything perfect and ready to go in the applications and it seems market insiders think its like 80%-90% likely that the ETFs will get approved next week.

If Gensler does continue to stand as a single man against the entire US Bitcoin market, well, he's got a s**tstorm coming his way. Before last year there way no pressure on Gensler so he could reject all ETFs over and over, as the previous head of the SEC did as well, with whatever lame excuses he came up with. But this is a whole different environment since Congress started getting fed up with Gensler continuing to stand in the way of an entire market and since the SEC started losing the court cases they seemed so confident about.