Do you actually think a Bitcoin ETF will be accepted this month?

[thecodebear]

Supposedly we've only got a week until many people think the SEC will accept the first Bitcoin ETFs.

Do you think it'll actually happen? Or do you think it's just been a bunch of 'hopium' and the SEC is just gonna reject all the ETFs same as they've been doing for the past 5 years?



It seems like the SEC has actually been engaging in talks about ETFs with various interested parties so it at least does seem like for the first time the SEC is actually considering the possibility of accepting ETFs. But at the same time the head of the SEC, Gensler, is well known as a Bitcoin hater and he wants to see the entire industry destroyed in America. But the one thing Bitcoin ETFs have going for them despite Gensler opposition to Bitcoin is that Gensler and the SEC has come under increasing pressure from Congress and the courts to stop denying ETFs and stop standing in the way of the industry.

To me, it could go either way. Maybe Gensler stands firm in his opposition to Bitcoin and the crypto industry (though if he does he has gotta know the political and legal pressure on him is going to get a lot worse), or maybe he has been feeling enough pressure last year to just say the hell with it and allow an ETF despite his personal vendetta against Bitcoin.

What do you think? Are we just days away from Bitcoin ETFs getting accepted or is the whole market about to be in for a huge disappointment?

[darkangel11]

I think it's going to get approved. I don't know if it's going to be this week (most likely not) or the next, but it's going to happen.
Personally, I don't bet on this. I don't have any leveraged positions and I haven't bought any bitcoin last month. I have more than enough to sleep on for another year, waiting for the bull market. I don't care if it comes because the ETF, or despite it.

There's a number of things that scream it's going to get approved, starting with the Blackrock's approval rate, which is 98 or 99% and ending with the SEC asking applicants to change their redemption mechanisms from in-kind to cash. These are final adjustments which you don't discuss unless there's strong grounds for approval.

[HeRetiK]

I'm pretty sure that there will be a Bitcoin ETF eventually but I wouldn't hold my breath for it happening within the next few days or weeks. After all the SEC has gotten pretty good at drowning all approaches in red tape so far and I have my doubts that they are out of red tape just yet.

In the end they'd just kick the can down the road though, so while a rejection may result in some short term volatility I wouldn't worry much about the long term.

[thecodebear]

I think it's going to get approved. I don't know if it's going to be this week (most likely not) or the next, but it's going to happen.
Personally, I don't bet on this. I don't have any leveraged positions and I haven't bought any bitcoin last month. I have more than enough to sleep on for another year, waiting for the bull market. I don't care if it comes because the ETF, or despite it.

There's a number of things that scream it's going to get approved, starting with the Blackrock's approval rate, which is 98 or 99% and ending with the SEC asking applicants to change their redemption mechanisms from in-kind to cash. These are final adjustments which you don't discuss unless there's strong grounds for approval.

Yeah the fact that SEC has actually been meeting with and discussing the ETF with the participants and financial exchanges and whatnot in recent weeks makes me think that it may actually happen. I didn't get onboard with everyone else last year just because Blackrock put in an application, but when SEC started losing their court cases I was like okay maaaaybe that'll be enough pressure to force Gensler's hand against his own will but at that point I was thinking like 5% chance of approval, up from 0%. But now it does seem like SEC in recent weeks is actually discussing it to get everything ready for an approval and not just waiting for the deadline to reject everything as they normally do. So now in my mind it's gone from like 5% possibility to higher than 50% at this point, but I still wouldn't be remotely surprised if they reject everything, but it does seem like its leaning towards acceptance at the moment.

[Ndabagi01]

Supposedly we've only got a week until many people think the SEC will accept the first Bitcoin ETFs.

Do you think it'll actually happen? Or do you think it's just been a bunch of 'hopium' and the SEC is just gonna reject all the ETFs same as they've been doing for the past 5 years?
~
What do you think? Are we just days away from Bitcoin ETFs getting accepted or is the whole market about to be in for a huge disappointment?

Since when SEC saw that after many rejections of the Bitcoin ETFs and the market is still performing well, they will look for a way to manipulate the market. Every of their move now will definitely shake the market and investors will be looking out on their stand on this Bitcoin ETF. I have some conviction that they also want to become amongst the main determinants for the market and give directions to where the market will go. I just don’t really like the spot Bitcoin ETF because it has caused too many uncertainties for the market and everyone is at the brink of what step to take next.

[aoluain]

I'm going with a yes?

This is the I am looking at it...

The SEC have been consulting with the applicants and have allowed them to make changes
to the applications, in other words guiding them along the path which the SEC maps out.

The largest asset management company - Blackrock have an application in as do all the other
top asset managers, if they cant get it approved it will never be approved.

[bluebit25]

Regardless of the scenario, the interest in bitcoin will be great. I believe the ETF will be approved, but I also speculate about it being rejected. This scenario cannot be ruled out because the nature of the SEC's mission is to regulate it. Managing the US stock market where the stock market is the "Barometer" of the economy, "Ensuring" "Protecting" "Stabilizing" the "Capital" market is the top task of the SEC.

The macroeconomic situation shows that the US economy is still able to withstand the FED's large interest rate increases, but the number of bankrupt businesses has increased, if you look at the difference in the yield curve of US Treasury bonds. 10 years and 3 months, we can see that the probability of a recession within the next 12 months is 61%. I know that historically, the yield curve has been a reliable indicator of economic recessions, calculated based on a New York Fed model that uses data from 1959-2009. Therefore, even if the FED adjusts interest rates in the next 2 quarters, capital flow priority will also be given to large businesses, so approve BTC ETF and deployment in 2024 is also unlikely, although the interest is huge.

Imo, not to mention the fluctuations with large amplitude and lack of control (the US government's BTC reserves are only ~ 300k and are being sold), the value of BTC will be a factor causing manipulation of the US capital market. So imo, BTC ETF is unlikely to be approved at this time, let's wait and see the verdict in the next few days.

[TelolettOm]

Every Bitcoiner must hope that Bitcoin ETF will be accepted. However, we don't know whether it really will be accepted or not. I think there are 3 possibilities, it can be accepted or delayed or rejected. I'm not sure it will be accepted in the near future, I assume it will be delayed/postponed. SEC probably needs more time to consider the right decision to make.

Well, I don't know why people are too thinking about Bitcoin ETF. I think we must focus on Bitcoin halving, it must happen. Bitcoin ETF is just another factor to support the bullish day of Bitcoin. I think it won't influence much for the bullrun season.

[nakamura12]

I think it's a yes but the question is when it will be and that I don't know of. Let's just hope that sec will approve the ETF and won't reject it. In my opinion, J think there's also a chance that it will get rejected. We'll see what will happen in the future if it's going to be accepted or rejected. What we can do now is to speculate about ETF's rejection and acceptance. It would bea great news for us if if it's really get accepted especially if it's sooner or later.

[o48o]

It would fit our current narrative that we are heading for the moon, or at least ATH, and this would be just a rocket fuel for it.
Personally i am skeptical as i have seen this so many times before, but i wouldn't want to be and i wish i was wrong and that it gets accepted. But i can totally see a scenario where it won't get passed and bitcoin just keeps on moving up, like it didn't care at all. It's not like this would have affected too much before. So i don't see not accepting being anything huge. Accepting on the other hand would launch it for sure

[criptoevangelista]

They will definitely be approved, but I think it will only be in a few months. I read news of a report that said that the SEC was going to deny all ETF applications, this even caused the price of bitcoin to return to 40.7k USD. Everything for now is just speculation, the SEC will sooner or later have to give in.

[Darker45]

Despite the noise and the FOMO and the hype, I think it's 50:50. It could be a yes or a no. Although I want the SEC's decision to be positive and see how the market reacts, that it would once again reject the applications is a probability. The SEC might reject the applications for now pending further preparations and polishing of policies and safeguards which pave the way for an eventual approval. A spot Bitcoin ETF in the US is still a matter of when, of course, but the SEC might simply say it's still premature for now. There's much more cleaning to be done.

[hd49728]

Despite the noise and the FOMO and the hype, I think it's 50:50. It could be a yes or a no. Although I want the SEC's decision to be positive and see how the market reacts, that it would once again reject the applications is a probability. The SEC might reject the applications for now pending further preparations and polishing of policies and safeguards which pave the way for an eventual approval. A spot Bitcoin ETF in the US is still a matter of when, of course, but the SEC might simply say it's still premature for now. There's much more cleaning to be done.

I am not a lawyer and don't know about laws in the USA. especially for Bitcoin Spot ETF and how long SEC. can delay it. It seem they are going to a deadline to announce their decision, Yes or No. However, is there any chance for SEC. to postpone it again with somewhat reason they can use?

I don't know, again about laws but if SEC. do another postpone, I really think they will delay it after the Bitcoin halving or worse, after the 2024 USA. President Election. If some big changes in SEC. board members after the 2024 President Election, I expect to see Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals after that because it must be 3 yes votes from SEC board members to approve those applications. Now we have 2 - 2, and the decisive vote is on the hands of Gensler, he votes No, very likely.

[mk4]

I don't know because I'm really not an expert in this stuff, but the institutional peeps I follow on Twitter are like 90% certain that it'll be approved this month. With the remaining 10% mostly being a postponement rather than a hard denial. So yea, pretty confident, but won't be disappointed if we get a different result.

[LogitechMouse]

Just a few hours ago, we saw the prices of cryptocurrencies go down as high as 10%. We've seen the price of Bitcoin go down from $45,000 to nearly $40,000. I don't know the main reason for this. Maybe it's just a normal price correction after weeks of going up in price. Maybe it's because of the genesis block (for sure this is not, but...). I don't know if this one is as well, but I think this affects the price of Bitcoin.

I saw an article from Cointelegraph saying that we might not see Spot Bitcoin ETFs getting accepted because SEC Chair Gary Gensler doesn't want crypto in the US. LINK

"SEC Chair Gensler is not embracing crypto in the U.S., and it might even be a very long shot to expect that he would vote to approve bitcoin spot ETFs," Matrixport said

TBH, I don't usually read articles online, but for this one, I'm a bit curious about it, and knowing that Gary Gensler is a hater of crypto (at least that's how we see him), there's a chance that we might see an opposite result, and we might not see Spot Bitcoin ETFs getting accepted.

Gary Gensler is acting like he's the main antagonist in one movie, eh? I'm hoping that somehow, there will be at least one or more ETFs that will get approved, but I will not be surprised anymore if the worst thing happens, and no one gets accepted.

[Husires]

We are not experts in matters related to the ETF and we do not have access to exclusive news or private information. Therefore, all the speculation we have may not be true, but rather reflect the fears of some or the hopes of others, but if you are an investor, it is best to think about the possibility of rejection and plan your investments accordingly. If approval occurs, it will be I won, and if I did not win, I reduced the impact of the losses.

[8rch7]

I am not a lawyer and don't know about laws in the USA. especially for Bitcoin Spot ETF and how long SEC. can delay it. It seem they are going to a deadline to announce their decision, Yes or No. However, is there any chance for SEC. to postpone it again with somewhat reason they can use?

I don't know, again about laws but if SEC. do another postpone, I really think they will delay it after the Bitcoin halving or worse, after the 2024 USA. President Election. If some big changes in SEC. board members after the 2024 President Election, I expect to see Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals after that because it must be 3 yes votes from SEC board members to approve those applications. Now we have 2 - 2, and the decisive vote is on the hands of Gensler, he votes No, very likely.

Last rumor despite true or not they will announce on January 10 will announce about Bitcoin ETF accepted bitcoin or not but still can't guarantee SEC will announce as soon possible because they will try keep delay it. Dilemma if ETF not announce yet they will approve or not because take advantage by many community or whale to make bad news and bitcoin potential drop drastically again. Hope for bitcoin holder don't panic with fake news and bad possibilities in the future if ETF not approved bitcoin because is not the end era of bitcoin have large community holder.

Actually hope ETF will approve bitcoin as soon possible and make investor keep confidence holding their bitcoin fund until raise higher price left few months later will be halving time.

[OgNasty]

I do believe that an ETF will be approved this month. Most likely we’ll see an approval on January 10th, but nothing is set in stone. Who knows, maybe some insiders want to try their hand at insider trading Bitcoin before an approval is made. I would imagine if no approval is seen on January 10th we will get a selloff, which may be why we’re seeing some profit taking recently.

[milewilda]

I do believe that an ETF will be approved this month. Most likely we’ll see an approval on January 10th, but nothing is set in stone. Who knows, maybe some insiders want to try their hand at insider trading Bitcoin before an approval is made. I would imagine if no approval is seen on January 10th we will get a selloff, which may be why we’re seeing some profit taking recently.

We did have some drop recently which these articles been published out on media outlets

Bitcoin Spot ETF Proposals to Be Rejected by SEC: Matrixport Source
SEC will reject all Bitcoin ETFs in January, says MatrixportSource

Bitcoin price plummets but eventually backed up. A purely non obvious manipulation as always. 
I wont be surprised if there would be those sudden news or announcement about approval as they had already placed
themselves at the bottom.

[adaseb]

What is scary is how 80% think it will be approved this month. This is getting to the point where everyone expects it to be approved and usually when the herd is going one way the opposite happens.

Reminds me of 2017, people were 99% it would be approved and instead it was rejected and we had a nasty spike down. But the remainder of the year was still bullish when bitcoin broke $1K all the way to $20K.