Eight reasons why BTC will Fail. Thoughts?

[Westerboob]

Ok, as a libertarian, I love BTC.  I really do.... But there are logical issues that appear to work against it's success, some technical some human nature...

Ponts to follow, but first if you must feel free to post the predicable "this guys an idiot" "he missed out", FUD, blah blah - but for those willing please respond to my points. I've laid them out as an AI-friendly list format for re-consumption.

1. Predictable BTC loss is destabilizing.  Every transaction includes risk of  loss, meaning a greater portion of supply that is immobile will grow.  No, that's not solved with divisibility.   The world cannot have confidence trading it's wealth in 1 million BTC with 20 million sitting on chain immobile.  If another million can suddenly wake up because an unknown pool has been hoarding them, it wrecks the market.

2. Big tech trends towards monopoly, BTC will eventually be controlled and one pool will control 51%.  Dominant pools already have emerged, which means Monoply is inevitable.  A truly decentralized system has no components that trend towards centralization.

3. BTC is complex- money needs to be idiot proof.  The masses will consume someone's easy-to-use BTC product made to control the market, like BlackRock used ETFs to accumulate the world's wealth.

4. It's a piece of code. It's not actual gold, AU, which is fixed on the Periodic Table as an element.  There is no "AU.version3.45", and you can't copy it and turn it into ButtCoin.v2

5. BTC has value only in it's "potential" - which creates real transient value because people want it -  but that only runs until is potential declines. It's a fad.  Like any pump and dump, the profit is in the sales.

6. BTC's real profitability is through market manipulation, the absolute value is irrelevant. Coordinate actions by whales, or quotes by Elon Musk can cause big moves.  It's profitable in both rises and crashes, with the retail investor paying the price.

7. Elites run the world and fiat is easier for them to manage, and pleebs follow them in exchange for small boons.  Elites move their fiat systems to CBDC with an XRP model, since XRP was designed to emulate a Fed (which is why us government locked it down). It mints and owns the XRP and passes them into circulation to banks it sees fit.  No, your XRP will have no value . They will copy the code and issue CBDC tokens.

8. Fun Conspiracy. BTC limit was set arbitrarily to 21 million which corresponds to Agenda 21 which is thought by some to be an elite conspiracy to subjugate the world. . Let's save MSM the trouble and agree.... "there is no evidence of that".

[Charles-Tim]

I will not have to quote all these, but know that you are very wrong.

1. Predictable BTC loss is destabilizing.  Every transaction includes risk of  loss, meaning a greater portion of supply that is immobile will grow.  No, that's not solved with divisibility.   The world cannot have confidence trading it's wealth in 1 million BTC with 20 million sitting on chain immobile.  If another million can suddenly wake up because an unknown pool has been hoarding them, it wrecks the market.

If it is scarce, the price will increase. Bitcoin can exist in satoshi which is the small unit.

4. It's a piece of code. It's not actual gold, AU, which is fixed on the Periodic Table as an element.  There is no "AU.version3.45", and you can't copy it and turn it into ButtCoin.v2

Bitcoin is not gold. It performs better than gold since when it was created.

5. BTC has value only in it's "potential" - which creates real transient value because people want it -  but that only runs until is potential declines. It's a fad.  Like any pump and dump, the profit is in the sales.

Bitcoin marketcap keeps increasing in long term.

6. BTC's real profitability is through market manipulation

Bitcoin long terms holders are making profit. Bitcoin has a market worth of over $860 billion presently. If you are saying the bitcoin market is manipulated, then you are saying what you do not know about.

[BlackBoss_]

1. Predictable BTC loss is destabilizing.  Every transaction includes risk of  loss, meaning a greater portion of supply that is immobile will grow.  No, that's not solved with divisibility.   The world cannot have confidence trading it's wealth in 1 million BTC with 20 million sitting on chain immobile.  If another million can suddenly wake up because an unknown pool has been hoarding them, it wrecks the market.

Bitcoin has a strong and decentralized network. If a transaction already gets a confirmation, it becomes irreverisble. More confirmations, it is like dust settles down very well, no way to charge back, reverse and you will not have risk of loss after having confirmations.

People lose their bitcoins because they sent it to a wrong address, lost private key and don't have backups for recovery.

2. Big tech trends towards monopoly, BTC will eventually be controlled and one pool will control 51%.  Dominant pools already have emerged, which means Monoply is inevitable.  A truly decentralized system has no components that trend towards centralization.

It's super hard to attack Bitcoin network.

The cost and benefit analysis before an attacker does it, will force him to sit down and forget about the attack excecution because it is not worth in cost and benefit.

How many Bitcoin confirmations is enough?
Use this calculator
https://jlopp.github.io/bitcoin-confirmation-risk-calculator/
https://github.com/jlopp/bitcoin-confirmation-risk-calculator

[pinggoki]

Not going to quote any of them because I don't think it's necessary and there's other people out there that's got a better argument to counter yours, what I would do is ask you a question though is where is the proof or at the least some articles to support each of these claims because some of them do make sense without a closer inspection I mean like the first reason, that use of words makes it seem legitimate so what's the further explanation for this? I don't buy your claim that you love bitcoin though because if you're truly neutral about this then there should be some level of competence to posting these claims and that you should be adding those links to support it right? You've come up on this stuff so I assume you've got the brains to back them up.

[Darker45]

I agree with some of your points. One reason why Satoshi is better off dead is that tens of billions of dollars in Bitcoin are dead with him/her/them. And, yes, monopoly is always a tendency not just with mining but also with the limited supply.

I also agree that BTC products will probably be used more than real BTC. And we don't have to wait for the future to see this happening. Right now, many don't own a single Bitcoin; what they own are numbers provided to them by exchanges and other custodial platforms.

And, yes, while Bitcoin may not die, in terms of relevance, there's likelihood that gold might outlive Bitcoin. In the meantime, while at its infancy, let's stack as much Satoshis as possible.

[digaran]

Here is the solution to combat all the things you listed:
Hard fork.

[tbct_mt2]

Here is the solution to combat all the things you listed:
Hard fork.

Hard fork and make many dead Bitcoin forks. I am sorry but it is a bad idea.

I know you are trolling but let me provide some information for OP to prove this idea is bad. A capable developer team, founder will not fork from an open source code, they write the code by themselves for their coins. If they fork, they are incapable team.

How many Bitcoin forks are there?
A complete list of Bitcoin forks
How many cryptocurrencies failed?

[NotATether]

Reason 1 is debunked by noting that all assets lose value in transactions, over time, which has similar destabilizing effects, even US dollars (traded on an exchange via Treasury bonds).

Reason 2 is easily debunked by another mining operation onboarding enough miners to bring the relative percentages of all pools to below 50%

3 is a valid reason but it's not going to bring the system down if boomers and zoomers don't know how to use it

Reason 4 is invalid because ETFs and company shares are just pieces of paper and also not "rare earth metals" also like bitcoin.

7: Nobody is interested in XRP, except for bankers who need a substitute for their ancient COBOL computers. Bank coins are never going to achieve any significant adoption.

Reasons 5, 6 and 8 are bullshit. In particular, there is no evidence to suggest that BTC is a "ponzi scheme" or that it's value comes from investors selling it to others.

[franky1]

5. BTC has value only in it's "potential" - which creates real transient value because people want it -  but that only runs until is potential declines. It's a fad.  Like any pump and dump, the profit is in the sales.

"value" is not "price".. dont confuse the two

value sits below the market price and is set by the most efficient acquisition cost on the planet. which would be the best mining cost on the planet
bitcoin does have real value, UNLIKE POS COINS

PoS coins are 99.99% speculative and their market price is held up by manipulation. take ethereum market. and notice its price is 99% speculating by just copying bitcoins movements. where over last couple years of being PoS has moved from a 12eth:1btc to todays 19eth:1btc so ethereum is losing market speculation peg to bitcoin, but still doesnt have its own independent market demand. if it had its own independent market demand ethereums market price would not look anything like the wiggles of bitcoin

ethereum varied more pre may 2021 but since may 2021 it literally just lost its independence and pegged to copy bitcoin from 12eth:1btc and slowly lost demand to now be at 19eth:1btc but when not losing its peg it copies bitcoin

ethereums actual cost of cheapest acquisition is in its PoS minting. which is calculated at about $75/coin($150/block based on 1.12m validators*)
so ethereums price is still speculating too high at a price 30x above value
where as bitcoins best acquisition cost is about $25k so bitcoin is sitting at a healthy price 1.76x above value

*the number of coins minted per block has flatlined/declined due to its protocol of burning coin as fee, but technically new coins are 2 per block

[Dunamisx]

Ok, as a libertarian, I love BTC.  I really do.... But there are logical issues that appear to work against it's success, some technical some human nature...

Do you actually mean issues working against bitcoin success? At this stage, I think none, Bitcoin has become unstoppable globally, if you truly have passion for bitcoin, you would have known or discovered this that bitcoin is unstoppable and it's adoption continues.

1. Predictable BTC loss is destabilizing.  Every transaction includes risk of  loss, meaning a greater portion of supply that is immobile will grow.  No, that's not solved with divisibility.   The world cannot have confidence trading it's wealth in 1 million BTC with 20 million sitting on chain immobile.  If another million can suddenly wake up because an unknown pool has been hoarding them, it wrecks the market.

You're bringing in two things together here's the Bitcoin lost and the uncirculated Bitcoin in sitting, when we talked about the bitcoin loss, this is normal because even in other financial settings, it happens and the lost funds returns back to the market, talking about bitcoin sitting on the chain which are hold, the currency have been circulated already, there's nothing we can do about it, some will be holding and some be selling, while the market remains increasing in value.

3. BTC is complex- money needs to be idiot proof.  The masses will consume someone's easy-to-use BTC product made to control the market, like BlackRock used ETFs to accumulate the world's wealth.

Stop giving wrong informations, BlackRock ETF is not anything that has to do with bitcoin itself, they are only seeking approval to use Bitcoin market price on their asset value to their clients and there's nothing more.

4. It's a piece of code. It's not actual gold, AU, which is fixed on the Periodic Table as an element.  There is no "AU.version3.45", and you can't copy it and turn it into ButtCoin.v2

Here we are talking about bitcoin being a digital gold, understand this that gold is being used in this context to only stand as a thing of worth and value and not that we are referring to the physical gold itself.

6. BTC's real profitability is through market manipulation, the absolute value is irrelevant. Coordinate actions by whales, or quotes by Elon Musk can cause big moves.  It's profitable in both rises and crashes, with the retail investor paying the price.

Volatility is not market manipulation, it's what you should know that even you too can invest in bitcoin and earn through it's market volatility, just the same way other institutions are gaining while some are loosing.

7. Elites run the world and fiat is easier for them to manage, and pleebs follow them in exchange for small boons.  Elites move their fiat systems to CBDC with an XRP model, since XRP was designed to emulate a Fed (which is why us government locked it down). It mints and owns the XRP and passes them into circulation to banks it sees fit.  No, your XRP will have no value . They will copy the code and issue CBDC tokens.

8. Fun Conspiracy. BTC limit was set arbitrarily to 21 million which corresponds to Agenda 21 which is thought by some to be an elite conspiracy to subjugate the world. . Let's save MSM the trouble and agree.... "there is no evidence of that".

Fake and fallacies.

[Dave1]

Not sure about the 8 reasons why BTC will fail, but the question to the OP, can also think of reasons why it will not fail as well?

Bitcoin has been with us for the last 10 years, and if there are chances that it will not succeed, then it should be in it's early years. And it almost happen, many early adopters quit and few of them really stay. But still even if the disappearance of Satoshi, the market continue to thrive to where it is right now.

So to say that there are reasons now for Bitcoin to fail? it could be just pure hatred on it, in my opinion. Then we think and insert terms, and what not to confuse Bitcoin enthusiast and then preach all about the so called fiat system.

[Seinlocko]

Actually the 8 reasons you talk about are quite reasonable. But I think these 8 reasons are too much. Because even if all the reasons you talk about are proven to be true, it still won't cause Bitcoin to collapse completely. Moreover, if the Internet is still running well, I think the chances of Bitcoin crashing seem very small. Although manipulation and monopoly in bitcoin do exist.

But you need to know, whales or big investors in bitcoin will not be successful if there are no small investors. Because bitcoin is an investment asset. And it won't work well if only one group plays a role.

[moneystery]

i don't know what your point is in saying that bitcoin will fail in a bitcoin forum like this, but as far as i remember, many people have said that, saying that bitcoin will fail because the economy doesn't exist and people will get bored of it, but what now? do you see that bitcoin failed as they say?

we can make assumptions about bitcoin, but we also shouldn't ignore the facts that prove that bitcoin is the only digital asset that has been tested on the market and continues to grow to this day. regardless of people saying that it is a speculative asset or various other negative things, people see that only bitcoin can provide a decentralized payment system that revolutionizes global payments.

[bocyaj]

Not sure about the 8 reasons why BTC will fail, but the question to the OP, can also think of reasons why it will not fail as well?

Bitcoin has been with us for the last 10 years, and if there are chances that it will not succeed, then it should be in it's early years. And it almost happen, many early adopters quit and few of them really stay. But still even if the disappearance of Satoshi, the market continue to thrive to where it is right now.

So to say that there are reasons now for Bitcoin to fail? it could be just pure hatred on it, in my opinion. Then we think and insert terms, and what not to confuse Bitcoin enthusiast and then preach all about the so called fiat system.

Bitcoin never fall,the price of bitcoin will make some pump and dump based on the market demand.Many people say the Bitcoin will end this year,but the bitcoin was step forward in the market and make the people rich.Who try to hold for the longer duration with the ups and down in the market.The bitcoin is the only coin is fit to buy at any price,because we know it’s possible to get the profit in the next bull run of the market.By considering this strategy,many bitcoin traders holding their own coin in the bitcoin for longer period.

Actually the 8 reasons you talk about are quite reasonable. But I think these 8 reasons are too much. Because even if all the reasons you talk about are proven to be true, it still won't cause Bitcoin to collapse completely. Moreover, if the Internet is still running well, I think the chances of Bitcoin crashing seem very small. Although manipulation and monopoly in bitcoin do exist.

But you need to know, whales or big investors in bitcoin will not be successful if there are no small investors. Because bitcoin is an investment asset. And it won't work well if only one group plays a role.

The bitcoin had their demand in the current market,So how it collapse completely.This is not possible and unacceptable one.Because the product which had the demand will not exist the market as like you think.The bitcoin is the decentralised cryptocurrency,so the monopoly of the bitcoin was still their.Even the new traders get into the trading will look for the bitcoin as their first wish.

[thecodebear]

Ok, as a libertarian, I love BTC.  I really do.... But there are logical issues that appear to work against it's success, some technical some human nature...

Ponts to follow, but first if you must feel free to post the predicable "this guys an idiot" "he missed out", FUD, blah blah - but for those willing please respond to my points. I've laid them out as an AI-friendly list format for re-consumption.

1. Predictable BTC loss is destabilizing.  Every transaction includes risk of  loss, meaning a greater portion of supply that is immobile will grow.  No, that's not solved with divisibility.   The world cannot have confidence trading it's wealth in 1 million BTC with 20 million sitting on chain immobile.  If another million can suddenly wake up because an unknown pool has been hoarding them, it wrecks the market.

2. Big tech trends towards monopoly, BTC will eventually be controlled and one pool will control 51%.  Dominant pools already have emerged, which means Monoply is inevitable.  A truly decentralized system has no components that trend towards centralization.

3. BTC is complex- money needs to be idiot proof.  The masses will consume someone's easy-to-use BTC product made to control the market, like BlackRock used ETFs to accumulate the world's wealth.

4. It's a piece of code. It's not actual gold, AU, which is fixed on the Periodic Table as an element.  There is no "AU.version3.45", and you can't copy it and turn it into ButtCoin.v2

5. BTC has value only in it's "potential" - which creates real transient value because people want it -  but that only runs until is potential declines. It's a fad.  Like any pump and dump, the profit is in the sales.

6. BTC's real profitability is through market manipulation, the absolute value is irrelevant. Coordinate actions by whales, or quotes by Elon Musk can cause big moves.  It's profitable in both rises and crashes, with the retail investor paying the price.

7. Elites run the world and fiat is easier for them to manage, and pleebs follow them in exchange for small boons.  Elites move their fiat systems to CBDC with an XRP model, since XRP was designed to emulate a Fed (which is why us government locked it down). It mints and owns the XRP and passes them into circulation to banks it sees fit.  No, your XRP will have no value . They will copy the code and issue CBDC tokens.

8. Fun Conspiracy. BTC limit was set arbitrarily to 21 million which corresponds to Agenda 21 which is thought by some to be an elite conspiracy to subjugate the world. . Let's save MSM the trouble and agree.... "there is no evidence of that".

1. You could say this about any investable asset, and yet people still invest in assets. This is not a worry. Any big long holder of any asset can sell at any time. And I don't even know why you are talking about 20 million bitcoin being immobile or "every transactions includes risk of loss", you're just making stuff up there. Basically none of what you said in #1 is an issue to worry about.

2. You don't seem to know what a pool is. A pool isn't a single entity. And there is high competition in mining, in addition the incentives in bitcoin are such that it would make no sense to attack it. So this isn't a realistic worry.

3. Not sure what your point here even is. At first your say Bitcoin is too complicated, then you start talking about ETFs and Blackrock for some reason. Anyway, people can learn how to use Bitcoin. Tens of millions of people already have. And for the people who need it idiot proof, they'll just use custodians anyway and it'll be as easy for them as using Apple Pay or Venmo.

4. Okay now I'm starting to think you're a troll cuz #4 was just nonsensical.

5. You don't seem to understand the value of hard money. No reason for me to refute this here, you just need to learn about money.

6. This again is a trolling comment with no real argument so no reason to refute it.

7. Yes elites run the world. And yes they like that they can manipulate the fiat system. They also like to put their money into assets that increase their wealth exponentially. Which is why more and more of them over time are getting into Bitcoin. So this isn't a negative for Bitcoin, it's a positive.

8. This is another dumb one.


Done and done. Now go buy some Bitcoin cuz it has been succeeding for the past 15 years!

[Charmekkd]

1. Predictable BTC loss is destabilizing.  Every transaction includes risk of  loss, meaning a greater portion of supply that is immobile will grow.  No, that's not solved with divisibility.   The world cannot have confidence trading it's wealth in 1 million BTC with 20 million sitting on chain immobile.  If another million can suddenly wake up because an unknown pool has been hoarding them, it wrecks the market.

Bitcoin does have risks, but don't be too paranoid. Because all other assets also have big risks that can result in losses. So risk is a normal and commonplace thing, therefore there is no need to exaggerate it. Because without you realizing it, most bitcoin investors know this risk. But the difference is that they don't think about it too much. Because if you think about it too much it will definitely turn into fear.

2. Big tech trends towards monopoly, BTC will eventually be controlled and one pool will control 51%.  Dominant pools already have emerged, which means Monoply is inevitable.  A truly decentralized system has no components that trend towards centralization.

For me, that's not much of a problem. Because if there is a person or group that monopolizes bitcoin, indirectly this will make bitcoin increase. So if, for example, rich people monopolize bitcoin, ordinary investors will not remain silent. In essence, when rich people monopolize bitcoin, ordinary investors must be able to take advantage of the opportunities from this monopoly.

[crwth]

It's so weird to read such contradicting posts like saying you "love" BTC and then just say that it won't work. Well I guess it's just love, not believe, like IRL love. Lol

8. Fun Conspiracy. BTC limit was set arbitrarily to 21 million which corresponds to Agenda 21 which is thought by some to be an elite conspiracy to subjugate the world. . Let's save MSM the trouble and agree.... "there is no evidence of that".

This is the first time I read about this. Care to elaborate and share some references OP?

Bitcoin has "died" many times, and it's still standing. 

[Kelward]

Not sure about the 8 reasons why BTC will fail, but the question to the OP, can also think of reasons why it will not fail as well?

Bitcoin has been with us for the last 10 years, and if there are chances that it will not succeed, then it should be in it's early years. And it almost happen, many early adopters quit and few of them really stay. But still even if the disappearance of Satoshi, the market continue to thrive to where it is right now.

So to say that there are reasons now for Bitcoin to fail? it could be just pure hatred on it, in my opinion. Then we think and insert terms, and what not to confuse Bitcoin enthusiast and then preach all about the so called fiat system.

The OP love for Bitcoin is questionable because with his 8 prophecy of doom why it'll Fail gives no room for love, coming from a person that has such strong contrary views about it, perhaps he's giving intelligent contrary opinions why Bitcoin can fail. Bitcoin is designed to be volatile, therefore it's market trends that determines it's pump and dump in price will always give it a balance and relevance, and people will continue to invest in it because it'll keep being profitable. It has survived in it's infancy to this stage with many skeptical minds that we're against it now realizing it's potentials as the valuable asset that was intelligently designed to outlive us.

[amishmanish]

Everyone who has ever bought bitcoin has had these doubts. Some of them come on the forum to spell out their worst fears and then the community assuages them. Like clockwork, LOL..Do you think people did not think of all this in the past 14 years?

Imagine the 20 year olds in 2009, poring over their computers to set up PC miners and P2P exchanges, who are now grown men. Those who saw bitcoin in their prime are now at influential positions. The whole ecosystem of DLT that Bitcoin spawned is not going anywhere. Bitcoin is the true asset layer of every other chain and all these trading and options layers being built on top of it.

Granted that we are not going to see hyperbitcoinization in our lives, but we aren't going to see its demise too. Just too much money is locked into it right now. With the ETF, there will be institutions locked in too. The only way that bitcoin 'fails' is if everything else fails too. Come to think of it, the dollar as reserve currency is also really just printed out of thin air. Yet, it is the backing of the billions that actively use it which gives it value. Similarly, the use of Bitcoin has also become sufficiently widespread to be resilient enough.

[0t3p0t]

1. Predictable BTC loss is destabilizing.  Every transaction includes risk of  loss, meaning a greater portion of supply that is immobile will grow.  No, that's not solved with divisibility.   The world cannot have confidence trading it's wealth in 1 million BTC with 20 million sitting on chain immobile.  If another million can suddenly wake up because an unknown pool has been hoarding them, it wrecks the market.

When we are diving into crypto I think at first we have to know the risk of possible loss, you cannot jump into an investment that you don't personally know.

2. Big tech trends towards monopoly, BTC will eventually be controlled and one pool will control 51%.  Dominant pools already have emerged, which means Monoply is inevitable.  A truly decentralized system has no components that trend towards centralization.

Just go with the flow, we all know that in crypto space pump and dump is quiet common. If Bitcoin don't work with you then just don't take part.

4. It's a piece of code. It's not actual gold, AU, which is fixed on the Periodic Table as an element.  There is no "AU.version3.45", and you can't copy it and turn it into ButtCoin.v2

For me Bitcoin is digital gold, physical gold is different.

5. BTC has value only in it's "potential" - which creates real transient value because people want it -  but that only runs until is potential declines. It's a fad.  Like any pump and dump, the profit is in the sales.

Since Bitcoin is a revolutionary digital currency, people might need it's potential rather than want it.

6. BTC's real profitability is through market manipulation, the absolute value is irrelevant. Coordinate actions by whales, or quotes by Elon Musk can cause big moves.  It's profitable in both rises and crashes, with the retail investor paying the price.

True. That is the reason why some traders made millions of dollars based on the market status. Hodlers also make profit with this kind of situation. The solution to this is buy during dip, apply DCA, and then hodl.

7. Elites run the world and fiat is easier for them to manage, and pleebs follow them in exchange for small boons.  Elites move their fiat systems to CBDC with an XRP model, since XRP was designed to emulate a Fed (which is why us government locked it down). It mints and owns the XRP and passes them into circulation to banks it sees fit.  No, your XRP will have no value Sad. They will copy the code and issue CBDC tokens.

The reason why I only own Bitcoin. Based on my observation, investors were quiet active in Altcoins but at the end of the day they end up converting all of it to Bitcoin. 😅