You should probably stay away from polymarket.com, UMA

[alani123]

An issue that was brought to my attention recently was that Polymarket is hosting a betting market where people can bet on if bitcoin ETFs will be approved.
The issue with Polymarket is that many people have actually lost a lot of money from its unfair market settlements in the past.

I wasn't aware of this platform until recently, but just by scrolling through their website I noticed that from the many markets they have, many users have been very disappointed with the unreasonable settlements that were given.

An issue I see with the platform is that people can see who bought how much of each market and hence whoever settles the market can make rulings in favor of their friends. This is a big conflict of interest. I noticed a good example of this in the middle east section of the markets.


https://polymarket.com/event/did-israeli-intelligence-have-advanced-knowledge-of-the-attack

This above market specifically, showcases the bias of this platform. In spite of the fact that MAJOR news outlines, in and outside of Israel, as well as state actors coordinating with Israel, all published evidence that Israel had prior knowledge to the October 7 attack, the settlement of the market is going contrary to all evidence, denying truth directly.

Initially the market was swayed towards yes due to evidence. But then some people tried to manipulate the discussion adding to the terms (without authorization by market participants) "Israel knew the attack was coming, but deliberately chose not to act".

Supposedly the market has been under a proposed settlement of yes, but some came and voted no after disputing it to sway it last minute.


For a market of around $600k USD, someone would have expected a settlement grounded in reality end evidence. Instead, just based on some people's voting power through the UMA platform, now many participants of this market will be losing a lot of money unfairly.

I've not used UMA or polymarket myself, otherwise I would be starting a scam accusation, but to me this is good enough evidence to warn people against using these services.

[electronicash]

i wouldn't say Polymarket is the fault, its the resolver.

how should a regular person know the truth about this bet about the Israeli Intelligence advance knowledge?  whether it's true or not, who would decide on this, Mossad?  even if they have documents proving such things, there is a chance that it would be debunked later. this is not a good bet even if they have this market's resolution source with a consensus of credible reporting.

[alani123]

i wouldn't say Polymarket is the fault, its the resolver.

Polymarket's bets use UMA as a resolver, so people should be staying away from both really.

how should a regular person know the truth about this bet about the Israeli Intelligence advance knowledge?  whether it's true or not, who would decide on this, Mossad?  even if they have documents proving such things, there is a chance that it would be debunked later. this is not a good bet even if they have this market's resolution source with a consensus of credible reporting.

This market is a clear example where evidence was ignored in a betting market. But not just that, polymarket was also unable to interpret its own rules properly. This is a three month old market, throughout its span reports came out from reliable sources that Israel had intel on the attack and chose to ignore it. This was pointed out to Polymarket so they could clarify their rules, as well as the hypocrisy of UMA voters was pointed out in their respective discords.

Polymarket failed to add any clarification to their rules and a handful of UMA voters just swayed the vote in the favor of their liking.

[MainIbem]

I've not used UMA or polymarket myself, otherwise I would be starting a scam accusation, but to me this is good enough evidence to warn people against using these services.

This platform sound new to me because I have never used it before or even heard about them, but still we can't still deny the fact that there is manipulation over their market and anyone who doesn't know how the platform works could likely lose huge amount of money when trying to stake for any event or something else. Don't you think moving this thread to accusation section could have been more better maybe people will see and beware of it.

[Mia Chloe]

An issue that was brought to my attention recently was that Polymarket is hosting a betting market where people can bet on if bitcoin ETFs will be approved.
The issue with Polymarket is that many people have actually lost a lot of money from its unfair market settlements in the past.

To an extent  I think polymarket sounds kinda like a rigged game. This is because basically you can see who's betting what and basically those in charge of settling markets seem to kinda bend the rules especially with that Israel market. It really more like screams straight up manipulation but in a more technical way. For big money most gamblers would expect fair play and not a few powerful folks pushing outcomes to suit themselves. Even if winning depends on luck most gamblers prefer games that produce a better winning chance.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Well, from the onset, I've never been a fan of polymarket, I started getting to know about polymarket during the Russia  Ukraine war and i am someone who hates betting on people's lifes, I hated polymarket from that very moment and it's never have moved me to even sign up an account on there..

So if now, people are beginning to see the discrepancies in their market and major issues on how market is settled, I am so very not surprised because it's some thing I expected would happen, betting on polymarket has become like betting on games that are rigged, you are either in the winning group or losing group, luck has no chance here.

I don't know if there are really any one from this forum who is a user of polymarket, if there be any of such person, maybe he or she has to share with us his or her experience, this i believe will help intending users in making a much better decision.

[BitGoba]

  I've never used Polymarket.com, but I recently came across a site   https://beta.predyx.com/ that's completely identical in design and the way betting works ,the only difference is that it supports only Bitcoin Lightning for deposits and withdrawals. Because of that, it caught my attention and I started using it occasionally, even though it's still in beta. Lightning transactions are instant and almost free, making deposits and withdrawals very simple and convenient.

[Alphakilo]

This thread was created in January of 2024. I commend the OP for a well thought out and we'll written review. It didn't get a lot of comments at that time maybe because people didn't know much about "poly market" but now that almost a year has passed, I am thinking if the OP stance from the time they wrote this till now has changed or still remains the same.

New information should be available at this time.

I don't use Polymarket and may not be able to know this but I am willing to do my research based on the OP's reply.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

This thread was created in January of 2024. I commend the OP for a well thought out and we'll written review. It didn't get a lot of comments at that time maybe because people didn't know much about "poly market" but now that almost a year has passed, I am thinking if the OP stance from the time they wrote this till now has changed or still remains the same.

New information should be available at this time.

I don't use Polymarket and may not be able to know this but I am willing to do my research based on the OP's reply.

I am not sure anything have changed with op opinion, if there was anything that have changed, the op would have already replied on this thread as I can see that he was active here.

And i must confess that I did glanced at the date the thread was created while reading the op but I wasn't attentive enough to notice it's been more than a year long since the thread was created.
I do not think the reason this didn't get a lot of replies is due to users on this forum not knowing anything about the polymarket platform, I think the reason might be because the op must have created the thread on a day the forum was very busy and thread quickly got buried in the background before enough forum user noticed it's presence.

But anyways, someone digged up the thread and I wonder how many pages back the user had to go to bring up the thread 😁

[Obim34]

But anyways, someone digged up the thread and I wonder how many pages back the user had to go to bring up the thread 😁

And i also have to bump the thread back having close to enter slide 2 

I'm not comfortable with some betting events from polymarket, of recent when they gave event like Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? and Israel, Iran, middle east occurrences bets, ratings and discussions, aside my view on religion, personally i believe some things shouldn't be involved into betting.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

But anyways, someone digged up the thread and I wonder how many pages back the user had to go to bring up the thread 😁

And i also have to bump the thread back having close to enter slide 2 

I'm not comfortable with some betting events from polymarket, of recent when they gave event like Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? and Israel, Iran, middle east occurrences bets, ratings and discussions, aside my view on religion, personally i believe some things shouldn't be involved into betting.

Exactly the point, not everything should be involved in betting and this is the real fact, such things like "will Jesus christ return in 2025" is a stupid question to ask judging from the fact that the Bible already explained in details the next coming of Jesus christ and how it would be..

And i I honestly do not blame the platform for creating such a market, I think that greater fools are the ones who are spending their hard earned money betting on such a market knowing fully well that if paradventure Jesus christ return truly in this 2025, this automatically means that the world has come to an end and there won't be anyone to settle the bet and pay the winners, at such a point, will money even mean anything to any one? I think no.

[michellee]

So that will not be fair for those who place their bet. I don't use polymarket so far so I don't check on the bets in that site. But after this case, maybe Polymarket can check on their services and fix it if something terrible happen on them.

Those people who still used polymarket should be aware of the result on their bet so it is better they can think twice if they want to place their bet.

It looks like that those who have a lot of money can interfere the result with their wealth. That make the result follow what they want and give the money to them.

[Hispo]

...

It looks like that those who have a lot of money can interfere the result with their wealth. That make the result follow what they want and give the money to them.

Honestly, this happened because people choose to participate in a market about a conflict which is highly politicized and whether Israeli intelligence was aware of the incoming attack or not was rather a very sensitive topic which was subjected to contradictions from both the Intelligence community and also news outlets from all around the world, some will say "yes", others will say "no" and the Mossad will say nothing in order to keep themselves as far away from scrutiny as possible, so the results unfortunately could be very biased and not conclusive.
It would be okey to participate in markets in which the result does not depend on the bias of the arbiter or the news, but rather it could be seen as undeniable truth in front of anyone, no room for grey areas.

[gunhell16]

I know there are many issues facing this polymarket that are being discussed here in this topic. Then it seems that there was also an allegation because of the manipulation that
happened if I am not mistaken in this matter as well.

It seems that this polymarket is doing some market manipulation so it even led to the point of paying penalties of at least 1M$ or more,
I'm just not sure.

[hopenotlate]

Although I quite agree that there was a very questionable management of the determination of the final result: that process should not be influenced by factors external to the event itself (who bet on what) in this case it is the type of event on which you bet that particularly lends itself to interpretations, manipulations and opinions.

I would change the title of the thread to: Stay away from bets whose result cannot be determined unequivocally.

[Obim34]

And i I honestly do not blame the platform for creating such a market, I think that greater fools are the ones who are spending their hard earned money betting on such a market knowing fully well that if paradventure Jesus christ return truly in this 2025, this automatically means that the world has come to an end and there won't be anyone to settle the bet and pay the winners, at such a point, will money even mean anything to any one? I think no.

Polymarket works in a way the gamblers are the ones setting the market to bet on, not the platform. Polymarket is very decentralized, gamblers holds 90% of anything happening there, when a gambler gives a prediction, it is open for others to either oppose or tag along the bet.

Those are the thinking of atheists, once they don't believe in the judgement, anything that goes against is cool with them.

[Haunebu]

Polymarket is definitely a risky platform to bet on and there are tons of examples to prove that, but we cannot deny the fact that it's still the best decentralised betting platform currently since most markets are settled correctly.

Popular markets will usually not lead to any major issues, but the unorthodox markets like the one that you suggested op are risky bets for sure. High risk, high reward basically.

[goldkingcoiner]

I have been very critical of Polymarket on many threads in this forum, especially in the gambling board, ever since I first heard of it. Its basically unregulated gambling under disguise as something new. Anyone who wants to lose their money to what I consider nothing but betting on the results of a public poll, is welcome to do so.

[adaseb]

For those that don’t know. There were a few outcomes that weren’t exactly clear on the rules and ended up closing one sided which wasn’t necessary fail or true.

One market was the “Zelenskyy wearing a suit” and the other was the “Iran bombing US”.

From what I understand he wore a blazer which technically is not a suit. So the outcome was no. And the Iran bombing US bases closed No however there was 1 missile which was not intercepted because it landed in the middle of nowhere. So technically a middle did land without interception but due to the rules not being clear it ended up closing as No.

[iv4n]

For those that don’t know. There were a few outcomes that weren’t exactly clear on the rules and ended up closing one sided which wasn’t necessary fail or true.

With all the crazy markets that exist on Polymarket, it's no wonder there are some disagreements about the final results... and this will especially happen if some rules are not specified.

I don't mind Polymarket, let people do what they want as long as they don't hurt others... but if someone decides to bet on "Will Jesus show up or not?" should be prepared for strange results. Just a weird example, and there are so many others.