You should probably stay away from polymarket.com, UMA

[alani123]

An issue that was brought to my attention recently was that Polymarket is hosting a betting market where people can bet on if bitcoin ETFs will be approved.
The issue with Polymarket is that many people have actually lost a lot of money from its unfair market settlements in the past.

I wasn't aware of this platform until recently, but just by scrolling through their website I noticed that from the many markets they have, many users have been very disappointed with the unreasonable settlements that were given.

An issue I see with the platform is that people can see who bought how much of each market and hence whoever settles the market can make rulings in favor of their friends. This is a big conflict of interest. I noticed a good example of this in the middle east section of the markets.


https://polymarket.com/event/did-israeli-intelligence-have-advanced-knowledge-of-the-attack

This above market specifically, showcases the bias of this platform. In spite of the fact that MAJOR news outlines, in and outside of Israel, as well as state actors coordinating with Israel, all published evidence that Israel had prior knowledge to the October 7 attack, the settlement of the market is going contrary to all evidence, denying truth directly.

Initially the market was swayed towards yes due to evidence. But then some people tried to manipulate the discussion adding to the terms (without authorization by market participants) "Israel knew the attack was coming, but deliberately chose not to act".

Supposedly the market has been under a proposed settlement of yes, but some came and voted no after disputing it to sway it last minute.


For a market of around $600k USD, someone would have expected a settlement grounded in reality end evidence. Instead, just based on some people's voting power through the UMA platform, now many participants of this market will be losing a lot of money unfairly.

I've not used UMA or polymarket myself, otherwise I would be starting a scam accusation, but to me this is good enough evidence to warn people against using these services.

[electronicash]

i wouldn't say Polymarket is the fault, its the resolver.

how should a regular person know the truth about this bet about the Israeli Intelligence advance knowledge?  whether it's true or not, who would decide on this, Mossad?  even if they have documents proving such things, there is a chance that it would be debunked later. this is not a good bet even if they have this market's resolution source with a consensus of credible reporting.

[alani123]

i wouldn't say Polymarket is the fault, its the resolver.

Polymarket's bets use UMA as a resolver, so people should be staying away from both really.

how should a regular person know the truth about this bet about the Israeli Intelligence advance knowledge?  whether it's true or not, who would decide on this, Mossad?  even if they have documents proving such things, there is a chance that it would be debunked later. this is not a good bet even if they have this market's resolution source with a consensus of credible reporting.

This market is a clear example where evidence was ignored in a betting market. But not just that, polymarket was also unable to interpret its own rules properly. This is a three month old market, throughout its span reports came out from reliable sources that Israel had intel on the attack and chose to ignore it. This was pointed out to Polymarket so they could clarify their rules, as well as the hypocrisy of UMA voters was pointed out in their respective discords.

Polymarket failed to add any clarification to their rules and a handful of UMA voters just swayed the vote in the favor of their liking.

[MainIbem]

I've not used UMA or polymarket myself, otherwise I would be starting a scam accusation, but to me this is good enough evidence to warn people against using these services.

This platform sound new to me because I have never used it before or even heard about them, but still we can't still deny the fact that there is manipulation over their market and anyone who doesn't know how the platform works could likely lose huge amount of money when trying to stake for any event or something else. Don't you think moving this thread to accusation section could have been more better maybe people will see and beware of it.