BTC ATH ~~~

[promise444c5]

This post is going to be  short because I'm posting to make enquiries based on the Halving.

The image below shows a table representation of price History for BTC



Color code

|   Red:    Halving |

|   Blue:   ATH      |


We could all notice that archieved ATHs after a particular Halving surpasses their previous ATH and normally, the long overview chart for the whole BTC price movement is an uptrend..

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

[1714702360]

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[Wiwo]

Let's just keep guessing and speculating what the next all-time high bitcoin price will be,  but from the chart shared and based on history it is best to expect an all-time high price some six to nine months after each halving,  and this time may not be different.

But what price the next all-time high will record is what has been unclear to us and remains at a speculative level up until now.

[FinePoine0]

One thing to note here is that the halving started from 2012, and the halving years were 2012,2016,2020 if you notice the year that Bitcoin was. The price of Bitcoin did not go up that year, it went up later that is in 2013, 2017, 2021, the price of Bitcoin increased much more than the price in the halving year. I predict 2024 that Bitcoin will touch around 50000 during halving in 2024. And in 2025, i.e. the year after the halving, I think the price of Bitcoin will definitely cross 1 hundred thousand dollars.

[Marvelman]

You raise an intriguing point about Bitcoin's price potentially surging as early as 2024 after the next halving.  Historically, we've seen sizable price increases in the years following previous halvings.  However, precisely predicting if or when such a spike might occur is tricky business and  a lot likely depends on broader crypto adoption and regulation trends, and economic conditions over the next couple years.  But you've gotten me curious now too about what potential catalysts could drive an earlier surge.  What specifically are you seeing that makes 2024 seem like a pivotal year in your eyes?

[cakravothy]

if you look at the history of the price of bitcoin, every time halving occurs the price of bitcoin goes down.
but one year later there is a new ATH from the price of bitcoin.
means 2024 should be a little careful if you look at the history then the price of bitcoin will go down first.
even though the decline was only a price correction. not a sharp price drop aka crash

[Jegileman]

From the chart you’ve provided it shows clearly how bitcoin makes a new all time high the following year after halving. The market still remain in a speculative state as people are not still sure when the next bull run will occur even the halving will happen in April, 2024. It was only after 2016 halving that the price didn’t have a low price impact before the 2020 halving. If you check the previous halving in 2012, at 2016 halving, the price went below the all time high that it was in 2013 after the halving before marking a new bull run in 2017. But in 2020 halving, the price was already ahead of the all time high price of bitcoin in 2017. Let’s see maybe by new halving, the current price of bitcoin at the time will be below or above the current all time high before another bull run takes place.

[Essential10]

In the chart you have shown, I can see that there has been a surge in the price of Bitcoin in the 365 days following the completion of the three halvings in the past. As we reach 2024 and will see Bitcoin halving for the fourth time. Around the 2024 halving I am optimistic that Bitcoin will surpass its ATH. Bitcoin has been hovering between $42k and $45k for quite some time now. If the price of Bitcoin remains stable up to the moment before the halving, then just from personal thought, the price of Bitcoin after the halving could be between $85k and $95k.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

It's just correlation, not causation. What's more, there is also a thesis (although this is a less popular approach) describes bitcoin's growth cycles after the presidential elections (which, surprise, also happen every 4 years).


Every 4 Years a President Is Elected and Bitcoin Moons

I have another one. Mars moves in 4-year cycles. And the dates when it was closest to the earth meant a mega bitcoin rally.





Correlation is not causation. Bitcoin has a loose correlation with halving as well as with elections or distance from Mars. there is no evidence that there is any causality behind this, and if we are talking about a decreasing supplyafter the halving(rewards split by half), this fact has already a negligible value. because the first halving reduced inflation from 25% to 12% and the current one from 1.5% to 0.8%

[Marvelman]

The image below shows a table representation of price History for BTC

Why didn't you complete the table. It is 2024 already!

This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

No one can predict that in advance. But if history repeats itself, we can expect anywhere between 100-300% price performance this year. I'd be more than happy with that.

[Upgrade00]

This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

Nothing is sustainable forever.

The capacity of growth an industry has is correlative to how much wiggle room there is or how much money can sustainably be moved into it. We can already see reduction in how much growth there is in the Bitcoin market over the last 5 years;

• From 2019 to date
The price has gone from ~$3.5k to $67k
That's approximately ×20

• From 2014 to 2019
The price went from ~$400 to $18k
This is approximately ×45

If the trend continues we should be having lower and lower price increases until it levels out eventually.

[khiholangkang]

Indeed, every time a halving occurs, there will be a correction because miners get the reward and take advantage by throwing away the bitcoins they get. Including several investors who bought in the bearish season, targeting the halving to be one of their bitcoin sales schedules to make a profit.

This cycle will always repeat itself because polarization is like the polarization that has become a culture in the bitcoin cycle, there will definitely be indicators that support bitcoin experiencing a decline at times like that and then there will be more indicators that make bitcoin experience a significant increase and hit the monthly ATH consecutively until the end of the ATH in this cycle.

[Beparanf]

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

There’s no such thing as continuous pattern BUT this pattern you brought about Bitcoin Halving and ATH has basis that’s why it comes up with that pattern. I believe it might move on same manner but with lesser growth in the future since the price is already discovered compared when the earlier date which only few investors already entered.

Now that institutional investors and other whale traders already weigh in, it will be very hard to have strong fluctuations like before because this whales will surely take profit and continuously trade the price.

[promise444c5]

~

Wow! seeing this for the first time though you made it clear from the condition  statement.

But you've gotten me curious now too about what potential catalysts could drive an earlier surge.  What specifically are you seeing that.why im i saymakes 2024 seem like a pivotal yean your eyes?

Well i don't really see a major difference to other halvings as there's always an ATH  but we are in the 2024 halving period, I don't know if the mempool had been this congested before   I think this should also be considered.

I once asked a question based on the effect of ETF dissaprova because  I saw that there are many a lot of investor waiting for the ETF approval and they believe this will really spike the price of Bitcoin . I got a reply that even if there's is no ETF approval there should still be a bull run.
Why I'm  I saying  this ?? I don't know if the previous halving has been related to ETF but I'm just curious if it's possible for the ATH not surpassing the previous 1

[pooya87]

This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

I believer this "cycle" will continue for a bunch of more halvings because it is still supply rate reduction by 50% and the effects of it on the market is significant enough to tip the balance in favor of a big rise. For example in the coming halving the reward will drop from 900 bitcoins per day to 450 which means the miners will have 450 less bitcoins to sell daily. That is still a huge reduction. Less sell pressure means bigger rise.

[Nrcewker]

We have seen Bitcoins follow the history. This has become very obvious that when we will see the next ATH price if this history is followed again. I mean it’s not late to invest in the coin. If we buy also at current price, then in the next ATH price we can make 2-3x profit. We just need to wait patiently, and believe in the coins. When Bitcoins have fell in price, then in the next moment it has gone very hope. So let’s hope for the same this time also.

[Lida93]

The image below shows a table representation of price History for BTC

Why didn't you complete the table. It is 2024 already!

You can go on and do justice to that 

This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

No one can predict that in advance. But if history repeats itself, we can expect anywhere between 100-300% price performance this year. I'd be more than happy with that.

The circle is like a tradition that has repeatedly occurred in previous time's and the inclination is that a reiteration of the circle is more than certain.

We are all making speculations about the price in the hope that the next ATH after the halving will hit a significant price level, the high expectations from investors on the next bitcoin ATH is sparked by the awaiting bitcoin ETF approval which the SEC has been delaying for no just cause.  However when the ETF finally get approved the price of bitcoin will definitely spike up to an altitude that investors will be more than happy about and a lot of them will not resist the urge to sell and take profit even before the ATH.

[ajiz138]

Why not? Although there is no exact correlation yet but history will continue to carve, I don't see how an expert says there will be no more ATH after this halving, but the facts say ATH will be much bigger because they believe bitcoin has now affected the world economy.

I just want to say my own opinion that the next ATH will still happen and often say $100K is still reasonable, I am not skeptical about it but just a sense of optimism that bitcoin will be higher for longer.

We won't say accurately even though it's not certain, just be confident that ATH will be encountered again.

[aoluain]

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

There’s no such thing as continuous pattern BUT this pattern you brought about Bitcoin Halving and ATH has basis that’s why it comes up with that pattern. I believe it might move on same manner but with lesser growth in the future since the price is already discovered compared when the earlier date which only few investors already entered.

Now that institutional investors and other whale traders already weigh in, it will be very hard to have strong fluctuations like before because this whales will surely take profit and continuously trade the price.

I agree with that synopsis, you could almost compare the reducing growth after the halving
to the idea that as Bitcoin ages and is accepted and used by more people with greater
knowledge the volatility reduces also. That is the same idea as the ATH following the halving
being less dramatic.

So yes the ATH should continue following the halving but there is a chance that it gets
to the point where there is so little volatility that there would not be a newer ATH perhaps

[Wiwo]

This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

Nothing is sustainable forever.

The capacity of growth an industry has is correlative to how much wiggle room there is or how much money can sustainably be moved into it. We can already see reduction in how much growth there is in the Bitcoin market over the last 5 years;

• From 2019 to date
The price has gone from ~$3.5k to $67k
That's approximately ×20

• From 2014 to 2019
The price went from ~$400 to $18k
This is approximately ×45

If the trend continues we should be having lower and lower price increases until it levels out eventually.

Really boss,  what do you mean by leveling out eventually?

Am kind of confuse because with recent happenings in term of Bitcoin adoption and the present price compared to that of those years back when bitcoin did the 20x or 45x I believe in 2014-2019 $400-$18k but not from 2018 till date Bitcoin touched 69k and currently at 42k+ which is significantly a good price for bitcoin at the moment,  so levelling out do you mean when bitcoin eventually become more stable in term of volatilities?

[promise444c5]

 so levelling out do you mean when bitcoin eventually become more stable in term of volatilities?

Yeah I saw it too, I think he's talking in  term of ATH but at the same time, ATH levelling out should mean BTC becoming stable and much more less volatile and I don't think there  will be a possibility for that.
The other way round is Bitcoin taking the same pattern for years of halving maybe......

I believer this "cycle" will continue for a bunch of more halvings because it is still supply rate reduction by 50% and the effects of it on the market is significant enough to tip the balance in favor of a big rise.

I'm  curious about the word "cycle" does this means an endless loop (forever).