New opinion of PlanB

[zasad@]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

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When I see posts like this, I understand that it’s time to sell Bitcoin. Otherwise, I don’t understand who will pay for this holiday of generosity.

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[tranthidung]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

Bitcoin is not dead but stronger with time and people get more boring to call "Bitcoin is dead" that is shown in the following summary chart.

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/
https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-is-dead/

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

It is possible but after 2024 halving is vague prediction with time.

After 2024 halving can be 2025, 2029 or 2033. The prediction must be clear and related to time. Without time, it is a trash prediction.

[blckhawk]

Anything going up with bitcoin is always possible, that's why it's a good thing to set up your selling goal higher than you normally should because bitcoin's proven itself time and time again that it's going to go up despite all of it's detractors throughout the years, how long do we have to learn the same lesson with bitcoin? I don't think I'm up to make the same mistake of selling early because I was blinded by the profit, my absurdist price goal helped me stop potentially stupid things that would've messed up my investments and hodling process. Everytime someone says that bitcoin's dead, I always bring a cup to get those tears from people that's scared to death about that possibility.

[Pikachi42]

There is no such thing as a human being, let a human being speak like a human being. Regardless of the current market for BTC, after the S2F model halving in 2024, its value will increase significantly, and again in 4 years, it will likely increase more than the 2024 value. If I could I would buy BTC and invest.

[Z-tight]

BTC is surely not dead and it has use cases that will always make it a currency or an asset in demand, so BTC is a long term project and any discussion of BTC failing is simply bullshit. Nevertheless, predictions on the price of BTC can be wrong, there are so many people that have different opinions on how high BTC will pump after the halving, if this person thinks it will go as high as $532k, that's their opinion, but they should be more specific on the date and time, other people are more reserved with their prediction and think BTC will surely get to $100k in 2025, but we don't know who's right until the time comes.

[thecodebear]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

__
When I see posts like this, I understand that it’s time to sell Bitcoin. Otherwise, I don’t understand who will pay for this holiday of generosity.

Lol if you're selling just before the halving because one person is making crazy predictions then you have no idea what you are doing lol. Reminds me of the people a in 2019 and 2020 who were waiting for it to get back close to $20k to sell hahaha


I think the S2F model just fails to take into account diminishing returns and the fact that most people are still confused/scared/reticent and above all else misinformed about Bitcoin and so market cycles will get much smaller than they were last decade as the general public is only going to slowly be educated on bitcoin and it will take many years for the general public to slowly wade into owning bitcoin. $500k+ will obviously get hit in the future, but it's not gonna be this market cycle, it miiiiight be the top of the 2032/2033 cycle but will definitely pass it in the 2036/37 cycle (if that is the 4 year cycle hasn't entirely faded away by that point as halvings get far less important to supply).

[m2017]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

Now people will say, lucky ****ard.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

I would still say that this is madness.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

Of course it's impossible. Not because it's impossible, but because I just don’t believe that it is possible. ~$500k is too much for the nearest halving. A more realistic value is something like $100k.

Forecasts are always accurate only on paper, but in practice everything turns out completely differently.

When I see posts like this, I understand that it’s time to sell Bitcoin. Otherwise, I don’t understand who will pay for this holiday of generosity.

Now? Isn't it too early? But it seemed to me that ~$40 was not the limit for the current cycle.

I assume that until the nearest halving there will probably be some drop in the bitcoin's price (unconfirmed forecasts), because growth is not linear, but occurs in waves.

[Poker Player]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

He forgot to say that he failed miserably in his predictions in this cycle, revising them downward as time went on, and yet he was still failing:

Plan B Says Bitcoin Price Still 'on Track Towards $100K' Despite Missing November's Price Prediction (November 2021)

This month, the price of bitcoin sank below the $60K zone this month after reaching an all-time high (ATH) at $69K per unit. The pseudonymous bitcoin analyst and the creator of the bitcoin price model called stock-to-flow (S2F), Plan B, called the last three months of bitcoin prices correctly but the analyst’s “worst-case scenario” forecast missed the mark in November. Despite the recent bitcoin price drop, Plan B still seems confident bitcoin’s price is “on track towards $100K.”

He has invested so much time and effort in his model, and has gained so much fame with it that instead of doing what a scientist would do, which would be to falsify the theory, what he does is to keep reformulating it even though it does not agree with the facts.

[MFahad]

Anything going up with bitcoin is always possible, that's why it's a good thing to set up your selling goal higher than you normally should because bitcoin's proven itself time and time again that it's going to go up despite all of it's detractors throughout the years, how long do we have to learn the same lesson with bitcoin? I don't think I'm up to make the same mistake of selling early because I was blinded by the profit, my absurdist price goal helped me stop potentially stupid things that would've messed up my investments and hodling process. Everytime someone says that bitcoin's dead, I always bring a cup to get those tears from people that's scared to death about that possibility.

Everyone wants to get a good profit after investing in Bitcoin, but there are people who sell their assets if they get even a small profit. Therefore, only people who have the courage to hold for longer can be more successful and more profitable. Selling Bitcoin is not a wrong decision, but selling at the right time is the best decision. It is wrong to sell early or sell at a low profit, but after selling at a good opportunity, you definitely have an opportunity to buy again at a lower price.

It's good that you have seen the price of Bitcoin and realized that it is wrong to sell early. However, man learns from mistakes, still if you can hold Bitcoin for long term, it can give you a huge profit. People who think that bitcoin is dead or that bitcoin will disappear have absolutely no idea of the potential of bitcoin. So we should not pay any attention to such things of people. We should benefit from Bitcoin investment ourselves and also educate people around us about it.

[criptoevangelista]

They are always probabilities, and probabilities can fail.

There are two possible solutions to avoid this:

understand that monetary expansion is infinite and as bitcoin is scarce, the tendency is for it to appreciate over time.

understand the dynamics of medium and long-term market cycles, to know when to buy and sell.

Knowing this, anyone can achieve financial freedom in a few years.

free yourself from recommendations from other people, the reality is that no one knows absolutely anything, everything is just possibilities.

[bluebit25]

Simple rule: "All speculation is just speculation"

Looking at PlanB's perspective, that is their perspective on Bitcoin. To me, it has no effect on the fact that bitcoin still exists. Although I don't want to argue about the price, I think this kind of speculation acts as a confidence booster or causes a negative reaction to that view. It is both an attraction and a repulsion, I don't mind too much about someone's speculations, because the reality is that I still know right now bitcoin = bitcoin.

[blckhawk]

~

Everyone wants to get a good profit after investing in Bitcoin, but there are people who sell their assets if they get even a small profit. Therefore, only people who have the courage to hold for longer can be more successful and more profitable. Selling Bitcoin is not a wrong decision, but selling at the right time is the best decision. It is wrong to sell early or sell at a low profit, but after selling at a good opportunity, you definitely have an opportunity to buy again at a lower price.

The problem with those people in my opinion is that they don't have a lot of stuff to do besides watching their crypto grow in profit, if you actually don't think about it that much, you inevitably hodl too long than you've ever been when you're watching your crypto 24/7, getting a hobby that doesn't involve cryptocurrency can help you not make the mistake of selling early because you're watching it everytime. Totally agree, it should be at the right opportunity you should be selling and not at the price that many think is the right time to sell.

~

It's good that you have seen the price of Bitcoin and realized that it is wrong to sell early. However, man learns from mistakes, still if you can hold Bitcoin for long term, it can give you a huge profit. People who think that bitcoin is dead or that bitcoin will disappear have absolutely no idea of the potential of bitcoin. So we should not pay any attention to such things of people. We should benefit from Bitcoin investment ourselves and also educate people around us about it.

I don't just hodl for the long-term, I'm also buying so I can get more value and increase the profit that I might be able to get out of my hodl. The people you're talking about are split in a category, one is the people that will never get over it and think that it's going to be that way forever even if they're wrong so many times about the death of bitcoin and those that will get over it and go to the side that invests in bitcoin eventually and rants about regretting not getting in when bitcoin's price was much lower than the time that he got in.

[buwaytress]

PlanB's better than most but he's conveniently forgotten he got it way, way wrong on his last bull call. Feel like it's slightly off character to go for half a million too, thought he'd be a bit less troll this time around.

I'd happily eat any item of clothing if he's right (but after 2024 can mean 2099 too...).

[Furious 7]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

Because everyone's sentiment will be very different and the perspective that only thinks about a short way and something definite is what they can digest so that when bitcoin is now at $40k and say that bitcoin will get to $500k then most people will definitely react that it is an impossibility maybe even those who believe still doubt because it will not be able to happen in the near future just like in 2019 like the story you gave when bitcoin was $4k and people said that there was no way it would be at $55k.

But on the other hand we also have our own beliefs for this regardless of whether it can happen or not in the near future of course we know that we only need to focus on the goals we want to achieve in bitcoin so that regardless of some speculation about the price of bitcoin and many sentiments or reactions that occur afterwards we only have to focus on what we will do for our own benefit. As long as we are still confident and our target is still not achieved for bitcoin then we still have to wait until the target we are aiming for can be achieved.

[Lucius]

~snip~
He forgot to say that he failed miserably in his predictions in this cycle, revising them downward as time went on, and yet he was still failing:

That's right, he is one of those whose model didn't come true, and instead of apologizing to people for leading them in the wrong direction, he now wants to "profit" again with a new model that, regardless of the halving+possible approval of the ETF, really looks unrealistic. The model simply cannot be successfully applied to Bitcoin.

Lol if you're selling just before the halving because one person is making crazy predictions then you have no idea what you are doing lol. Reminds me of the people a in 2019 and 2020 who were waiting for it to get back close to $20k to sell hahaha
~snip~

I would not dare to advise people what to do with their investments, but this is definitely the wrong time to sell if we still believe that the halving will have a similar effect as it was the case in the past. However, some speculate that the rejection of spot ETF approval could result in a correction, and someone who would sell today might make a good move.

[btc78]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

People who say that bitcoin is dead are those people who really do not understand bitcoin and its volatile market congrats to you for believing bitcoin and buying at that time

I am not going to lie seeing predicted prices make me shock sometimes i guess there are still people like me who can not comprehend how much money is in crypto right now and how much more will there be in the future

[MainIbem]

I still believe that everything is possible in crypto especially in bitcoin investment, would you have any day believed that you will see bitcoin price at the current price? Even if is yes it was at cause you had the basics knowledge those who doesn't understand the movement of bitcoin and what's all about would still say it's impossible for you to have seen another higher price.

$532k is still possible but I am not quite sure it would be after this halving otherwise the next 4 years we might see that but, however I can't still generalized the overall price of bitcoin since it's purely on a higher speculation maybe after the ETF we might see it over there as said but presently let us witness the halving and watch out to it.

[PrivacyG]

It is possible but after 2024 halving is vague prediction with time.

After 2024 halving can be 2025, 2029 or 2033. The prediction must be clear and related to time. Without time, it is a trash prediction.

This will be interesting to see.  If before the next Halving we will see Bitcoin priced at half a million Dollars then I will from then on believe every thing is possible with Bitcoin.

The S2F prediction model is very inaccurate in my opinion.  But we shall see after this Halving.  If it hits the nail twice then it will gain a lot of interest and credibility.

[sokani]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

The naysayers can continue shovelling dirts at Bitcoin while it keeps soaring higher and attaining greater heights. Over and over Bitcoin has proven that it's not dead and I'm really looking forward to the year's halving and bitcoin ATH during the bull. While I'm very optimistic about the price, I feel the S2F model prediction of $532k is way too much. I understand the fomo about Bitcoin spot ETF listing, but I think $150k - $200k price mark is very possibly during the bull.

[BTC_Dragon]

It's like I always say: when in doubt, simply zoom out (on the graph)!